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Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,159
edited June 8 in General
Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Hmmm, Greens winning Bristol Central looks more likely with this sort of poll.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Eabhal said:

    Not great, not terrible.


    lol
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    Realistic? No.

    Hilarious? Oh yes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    FPT

    tlg86 said:
    The question is, as these polls get reported in the press, will people think "actually, I'd rather Labour didn't have such a large majority" or will they think "so what?"
    I think there’s a mixture of reactions to this kind of situation. After all the voting population isn’t uniform.

    There’s certainly a bandwagon effect when a party becomes known to be popular or unpopular. We saw it with UKIP and BXP, when one big set of polls or Euro election results spurred them on to higher scores, and with Cleggmania, and certainly with Blair in the months after his victory.

    And probably the starkest example of this in reverse was 2010-2015 for the Lib Dems, when the first evidence of a polling slump catapulted them to worse things and it became fashionable to hate them. That was a tough time.

    The danger for Tories is a similar post-tuition fees Lib Dem effect, when voting for the party makes you look a bit weird.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    A moment of caution: MRP will be modelling current polling, including the possibly overcooking of Reform, and they're usually most accurate a week to 10 days out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    GAME OVER, MAN! GAME OVER!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Hmm GB news have slightly different figures for what I presume is the same poll.

    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/general-election-conservative-polling-labour
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,655
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SKS fans please explain.

    RIGGED POLL

    MR P IS CORRUPT

    NOV 5 WE WILL SEE A RED WAVE
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SKS fans please explain.

    RIGGED POLL

    MR P IS CORRUPT

    NOV 5 WE WILL SEE A RED WAVE
    Yep, who is this so-called Mr P? Another one of his mad polls tonight.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Realistic? No.

    Hilarious? Oh yes.

    It seems realistic to me. Why not?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    edited May 31
    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their own pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SKS fans please explain.

    Easy.

    People largely vote to kick or keep out the bums they don't want. And people really really don't want a Conservative government.

    Thinking about the "blimey" seats conversation on the last thread, where's the place where the demographics have been quietly shifting Labour's way to just about bring them into range for the red peril?

    Maybe one of the southern Cambridgeshire seats that have become London overspill. Huntingdon would be iconic, and is possibly just about on the map.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Realistic? No.

    Hilarious? Oh yes.

    Agreed. Tories will get at least 100, IMHO. In fact I expect the floor to be 150.

    I’m happy for this to be quoted back to me and to have significant amount of egg on my face.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Hmm. Method.

    Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?

    MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.

    To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.

    Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    SKS is a lucky general, again. His party’s clusterfuck over Abbott threatened to send the whole campaign into chaos. Then Trump got convicted and Mr P came out with his first poll, and it’s all forgotten.

    I’m inclined to promote him to lucky field marshal.

    (But, to be clear, he’s not going to be that lucky in Didcot and Wantage or other sovereign yellow turf).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,655
    tlg86 said:

    Hmmm, Greens winning Bristol Central looks more likely with this sort of poll.

    Very likely

    I am going to help in their office on the final weekend health permitting
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    I wouldn’t trust any projection from a site which can’t even make its hosting withstand a predictable wave of interest. Cloudflare is a thing, you know.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,867
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their own pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.

    It's not. I'm fairly confident the country is still broadly in two camps, but they decisively want revenge on the Tories and Labour is the mechanism.

    They're not going to last long in office if they forget that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.

    That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departs
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Casino_Royale said:

    Hmm. Method.

    Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?

    MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.

    To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.

    Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1796636336910123320

    Sam Freedman @Samfr
    We're getting the first YouGov MRP on Tuesday, which I suspect will be a fair bit friendlier to the Tories, albeit still very bad.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,640
    Casino_Royale said:

    Hmm. Method.

    Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?

    MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.

    To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.

    Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.

    I haven't read the notes on this poll yet, but on the last MRP that's what they found too - polling averages came up with similar numbers to the MRP. The only difference was the underlying seats that made up the totals.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    In other news could Sheffield United be about to pip Man City to the Premiership?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    edited May 31
    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,655
    Surely antisemitic

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/c4nn9427j7zt
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.

    That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departs
    Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Casino_Royale said:

    Hmm. Method.

    Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?

    MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.

    To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.

    Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.

    I think it's an MRP poll with a tactical voting model on top.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 31
    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    williamglenn said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Realistic? No.

    Hilarious? Oh yes.

    It seems realistic to me. Why not?
    Local elections, while bad, showed they have enough in enough areas to avoid annihilation. In the real stretch targets, there won't be enough opposition activity on the ground.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    GAME OVER, MAN! GAME OVER!

    WE'RE IN SOME REAL FRUITY SHIT NOW, MAN!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,352
    Casino_Royale said:

    A moment of caution: MRP will be modelling current polling, including the possibly overcooking of Reform, and they're usually most accurate a week to 10 days out.

    There's been some suggestion that Reform supporters are quite a distinct bunch - much higher rates of Trump support, for example - and they might be more motivated by antipathy towards the current Conservative government than the future Labour government.

    I've been surprised that Farage's announcement he was sitting the election out didn't immediately lead to a decline in the Reform poll share.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    stodge said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.
    I mentioned the other day how lost the Telegraph seems right now. I take the Saturday edition and it’s become a really weird experience.

    They are genuinely bewildered about what’s happening.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    tlg86 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Hmm. Method.

    Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?

    MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.

    To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.

    Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1796636336910123320

    Sam Freedman @Samfr
    We're getting the first YouGov MRP on Tuesday, which I suspect will be a fair bit friendlier to the Tories, albeit still very bad.
    Thanks. I'll wait for that one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    bigjohnowls said:

    tlg86 said:

    Hmmm, Greens winning Bristol Central looks more likely with this sort of poll.

    Very likely

    I am going to help in their office on the final weekend health permitting
    Good for you BJO. Much as I disagree with you on Labour, I admire your commitment to progressive change.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Heathener said:

    stodge said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.
    I mentioned the other day how lost the Telegraph seems right now. I take the Saturday edition and it’s become a really weird experience.

    They are genuinely bewildered about what’s happening.
    Probably dawning on them that their incessant sniping hasn't actually done "their side" a lot of favours.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Heathener said:

    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
    Ah, the child has turned up.

    Isn't it past your bedtime?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Remember Mike’s Golden Rule

    By all means diss a poll but don’t do it just because you don’t like its findings

    (That’s not the Golden Rule but kinda)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    edited May 31
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.

    Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.

    EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.
    Did you miss Things Can Only Get Better?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It was Boris Johnson that did that by weakening the skilled worker visa. Sunak is now tightening things up.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Casino_Royale said:

    Heathener said:

    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
    Ah, the child has turned up.

    Isn't it past your bedtime?
    You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    stodge said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.
    I mentioned the other day how lost the Telegraph seems right now. I take the Saturday edition and it’s become a really weird experience.

    They are genuinely bewildered about what’s happening.
    Probably dawning on them that their incessant sniping hasn't actually done "their side" a lot of favours.
    Circular firing squad is the speciality.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    I will believe it when I see the metaphorical stake, garlic, crossroads, etc.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    FPT - Was charmed by Cookie's tale of his schoolboy belief that Jewish people were endowed with superior soccer skills, based on equally charming ignorance of the anti-Semitic origins, and consequent misunderstanding of the basic meaning, of school-yard banter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    LostPassword said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    A moment of caution: MRP will be modelling current polling, including the possibly overcooking of Reform, and they're usually most accurate a week to 10 days out.

    There's been some suggestion that Reform supporters are quite a distinct bunch - much higher rates of Trump support, for example - and they might be more motivated by antipathy towards the current Conservative government than the future Labour government.

    I've been surprised that Farage's announcement he was sitting the election out didn't immediately lead to a decline in the Reform poll share.
    It may be that Reform are simply measuring a degree of abstentions, *and* overpolling Labour support and VI at the same time.

    That could account for a bit of the delta.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Casino_Royale said:

    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.
    Did you miss Things Can Only Get Better?
    Things can only get better is an expression of how shit things are now (or were then). Things can only get better because we're at rock bottom.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Ben (Britain Elects) Walker suitably acerbic:

    Me, sobbing
    You can't just headline MRP atop some random numbers and expect the whole ass media to take them as blanket truth

    You, SEO'ing
    MRP poll goes brrr

    https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/1796637366787924458
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.

    That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departs
    Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?
    The only hope for the country is the destruction of the Tories so they are replaced by something better. An actual right wing party that does right wing things

    And I am in such despair at our politics I am honestly prepared to give the lame-ass Starmer a shot. Why not. He might do ok. He might actually think about the future of Britons who aren’t 70 year old home owners or property developers or billionaire party donors
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Heathener said:

    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
    Ah, the child has turned up.

    Isn't it past your bedtime?
    You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.
    I converted your mum.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
    Boris was liberal on migration anyway, believed his own propaganda on it, and thought it'd lead to an economic boom.

    So, he took all the brakes off.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Wow.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    pigeon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.

    Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.

    EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
    One of my schoolmates is a farmer in Richmond. He won’t be voting for the Tories.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    edited May 31
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It was Boris Johnson that did that by weakening the skilled worker visa. Sunak is now tightening things up.
    Who fucking cares. They did it. Its on their watch. Let them get in the sea, and not in a small boat
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.

    That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departs
    Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?
    What do you think the Prime Minister is in FPTP?
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    We keep getting jaws dropping numbers
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Leon said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.

    Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.

    That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departs
    Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?
    The only hope for the country is the destruction of the Tories so they are replaced by something better. An actual right wing party that does right wing things

    And I am in such despair at our politics I am honestly prepared to give the lame-ass Starmer a shot. Why not. He might do ok. He might actually think about the future of Britons who aren’t 70 year old home owners or property developers or billionaire party donors
    Lots of mights there. You haven't a clue.

    He 'might' use your vote to take us straight back into the EU, or create 'safe and legal routes' to expand migration still further.

    History shows the man has zero loyalty to any platform he's elected on as soon as he finds it inconvenient, and he's entirely disingenuous.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.
    Did you miss Things Can Only Get Better?
    Things can only get better is an expression of how shit things are now (or were then). Things can only get better because we're at rock bottom.
    Well, it’s Russian pessimist v Russian optimist.

    The optimist believes things can’t get worse. The pessimist knows they will.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    I am however highly confident that Sunak will no longer have his seat in a few months' time.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Casino_Royale said:

    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Heathener said:

    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
    Ah, the child has turned up.

    Isn't it past your bedtime?
    You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.
    I converted your mum.
    Whenever my late Mum met people like you, she'd start talking about how she'd done close to 5000 vasectomies.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
    Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.

    Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67
    Raises the question: are they targeting the right seats for defence? Or ones that are actually no-hopers?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937
    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.

    If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.

    If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.

    Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.

    What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.

    Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.

    The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
    And the day after that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812
    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Heathener said:

    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
    Ah, the child has turned up.

    Isn't it past your bedtime?
    You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.
    I converted your mum.
    Whenever my late Mum met people like you, she'd start talking about how she'd done close to 5000 vasectomies.
    And to recap FPT -

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/31/men-and-other-mammals-live-longer-if-they-are-castrated-says-researcher
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Leon said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It was Boris Johnson that did that by weakening the skilled worker visa. Sunak is now tightening things up.
    Who fucking cares. They did it. Its on their watch. Let them get in the sea, and not in a small boat
    Be careful what you wish for.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    edited May 31
    pigeon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.

    Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.

    EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
    Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..

    With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
    The idiotic Spectator magazine tried to claim “it happened by mistake”

    Literally. An error. A tiny oversight. Whoops, we let in 2,000,000 migrants in 3 years. These things happen. Never mind

    Fuck off with that. Just fuck off to fuckoffistan on a fuck off great camel called Al Fuckoff
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    These are the figures with and without tactical voting

    🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
    / @FindoutnowUK:

    Without Tactical Voting
    🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
    🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
    🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
    🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
    🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    With Tactical Voting:
    🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
    🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
    🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
    🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
    🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.

    If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.

    If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.

    Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
    Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    williamglenn said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Realistic? No.

    Hilarious? Oh yes.

    It seems realistic to me. Why not?
    Local elections, while bad, showed they have enough in enough areas to avoid annihilation. In the real stretch targets, there won't be enough opposition activity on the ground.
    In 1997 we made outrageous gains in untargetted seats. Ground game counts for little in a GE.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
    Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.

    Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
    I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,640
    edited May 31
    A
    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
    Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.

    Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
    + Staff for the NHS.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    FWIW I don’t think this is all that likely, but it might happen.

    My prediction, made on 23/5, remains:

    Lab 421
    Con 160
    LibDem 30
    SNP 14

    Lab majority 185, just a trifle less than 1997 which in itself would be astonishing from where they start.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    HOW can punters rely on polls, that do NOT even ask about support for the powerful, underground political movement that seeks the overthrow of the UK and also England, in the interests of an ever-expanding East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere?

    When will pollster learn to plum the depths of extreme Cornish Nationalism? Perhaps when the Mother of Parliaments is relocated from Westminster Estate to the Lands End Theme Park?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    bondegezou said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Heathener said:

    System said:

    Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

    ?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.

    Read the full story here

    Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical voting
    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.

    That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.

    And that’s very, very, healthy.

    But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
    Ah, the child has turned up.

    Isn't it past your bedtime?
    You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.
    I converted your mum.
    Whenever my late Mum met people like you, she'd start talking about how she'd done close to 5000 vasectomies.
    She got onto that, yes, but only after she'd pledged me her vote.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937
    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.

    If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.

    If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.

    Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
    Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.
    An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.

    What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.

    Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.

    The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
    We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.

    It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:

    Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    stodge said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.

    https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.
    Has she also heard anything about Sadiq Khan losing in London?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,812
    TimS said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.

    And not healthy.
    Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.

    What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.

    Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.

    The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
    We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.

    It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:

    Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.

    The Tories already tried to do that with Mr Johnson. Very fine piece of augury in this painting, so to speak.

    https://victorianweb.org/painting/whh/replete/scapegoat.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Sergeant Sunil: "All right, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?"

    PB Tories: "Yeah!"

    Sergeant Sunil: "Are ya mean?

    PB Tories: "Yeah!"

    Sergeant Sunil: "WHAT ARE YOU?"

    PB Tories: "Lean and mean!"

    Sergeant Sunil: "WHAT ARE YOU? CASINO ROYALE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badassess! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!"
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    eek said:

    pigeon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.

    Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.

    EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
    Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..

    With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...
    Is Crackpot in this constituency?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    kyf_100 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.

    If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.

    If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.

    Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
    Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.
    An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)
    The country has been ruined thanks to around 150k of aging pensioner tory members who have given us Johnson, Truss and Sunak in succession. They are completely out of touch with the modern world and their party is about to be battered.

    The fundamental problem is the tory membership. It is not a mass party representing various walks of life any more.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Monksfield said:

    pigeon said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.

    Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.

    EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
    One of my schoolmates is a farmer in Richmond. He won’t be voting for the Tories.
    FARMERS: Utterly shagged by Brexit and replacing CAP subsidies with nothing,
    PENSIONERS: Sending the grandkids to the army
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    ToryJim said:

    These are the figures with and without tactical voting

    🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
    / @FindoutnowUK:

    Without Tactical Voting
    🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
    🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
    🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
    🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
    🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    With Tactical Voting:
    🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
    🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
    🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
    🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
    🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    Those are odd results. How on earth do the SNP do better with tactical voting? Isn’t the entire anti-SNP voting pattern in Scotland driven by unionist tactical voting?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    bondegezou said:

    pigeon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Monksfield said:

    Leon said:

    The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”

    Almost everyone has deserted them

    I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.
    They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar winds
    I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)
    Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.

    Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
    I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.
    They can say what they like.

    I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.

    It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    EPG said:

    I am however highly confident that Sunak will no longer have his seat in a few months' time.

    His seat by the pool in California, however...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,640
    ToryJim said:

    These are the figures with and without tactical voting

    🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
    / @FindoutnowUK:

    Without Tactical Voting
    🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
    🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
    🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
    🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
    🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    With Tactical Voting:
    🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
    🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
    🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
    🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
    🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    The MRP is picking up some resilience for the SNP.

    The tactical voting adjustment is fascinating - that's the Reform voters coming back in some places, but the Lib Dems winning the Blue Wall? I wonder how they modelled Scotland for the SNP to lose fewer seats.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,616
    ToryJim said:

    These are the figures with and without tactical voting

    🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
    / @FindoutnowUK:

    Without Tactical Voting
    🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
    🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
    🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
    🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
    🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    With Tactical Voting:
    🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
    🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
    🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
    🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
    🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
    🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)

    The Lab on 500+ seats is the best ELE punt on BFX. Priced at 22 at the moment.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    Short of the tories declaring to rejoin the EU, the railway tracks are heading right over the cliff edge and into a hard landing. It will be total wipeout. People just want them out, no matter the cost.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Heathener said:

    FWIW I don’t think this is all that likely, but it might happen.

    My prediction, made on 23/5, remains:

    Lab 421
    Con 160
    LibDem 30
    SNP 14

    Lab majority 185, just a trifle less than 1997 which in itself would be astonishing from where they start.

    A majority of 185 would be a trifle more than 1997 (maj 179), just saying.
This discussion has been closed.