Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Comments
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SKS fans please explain.6
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I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.0
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Hmmm, Greens winning Bristol Central looks more likely with this sort of poll.0
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Not great, not terrible.
5 -
Realistic? No.
Hilarious? Oh yes.2 -
FPT
tlg86 said:
The question is, as these polls get reported in the press, will people think "actually, I'd rather Labour didn't have such a large majority" or will they think "so what?"
I think there’s a mixture of reactions to this kind of situation. After all the voting population isn’t uniform.
There’s certainly a bandwagon effect when a party becomes known to be popular or unpopular. We saw it with UKIP and BXP, when one big set of polls or Euro election results spurred them on to higher scores, and with Cleggmania, and certainly with Blair in the months after his victory.
And probably the starkest example of this in reverse was 2010-2015 for the Lib Dems, when the first evidence of a polling slump catapulted them to worse things and it became fashionable to hate them. That was a tough time.
The danger for Tories is a similar post-tuition fees Lib Dem effect, when voting for the party makes you look a bit weird.2 -
A moment of caution: MRP will be modelling current polling, including the possibly overcooking of Reform, and they're usually most accurate a week to 10 days out.1
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GAME OVER, MAN! GAME OVER!2
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Hmm GB news have slightly different figures for what I presume is the same poll.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/general-election-conservative-polling-labour0 -
The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them6 -
RIGGED POLLTheScreamingEagles said:SKS fans please explain.
MR P IS CORRUPT
NOV 5 WE WILL SEE A RED WAVE1 -
Yep, who is this so-called Mr P? Another one of his mad polls tonight.bigjohnowls said:
RIGGED POLLTheScreamingEagles said:SKS fans please explain.
MR P IS CORRUPT
NOV 5 WE WILL SEE A RED WAVE0 -
It seems realistic to me. Why not?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Realistic? No.
Hilarious? Oh yes.0 -
Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their own pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.3 -
I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q1 -
Easy.TheScreamingEagles said:SKS fans please explain.
People largely vote to kick or keep out the bums they don't want. And people really really don't want a Conservative government.
Thinking about the "blimey" seats conversation on the last thread, where's the place where the demographics have been quietly shifting Labour's way to just about bring them into range for the red peril?
Maybe one of the southern Cambridgeshire seats that have become London overspill. Huntingdon would be iconic, and is possibly just about on the map.0 -
Agreed. Tories will get at least 100, IMHO. In fact I expect the floor to be 150.SirNorfolkPassmore said:Realistic? No.
Hilarious? Oh yes.
I’m happy for this to be quoted back to me and to have significant amount of egg on my face.3 -
Hmm. Method.
Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?
MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.
To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.
Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.4 -
SKS is a lucky general, again. His party’s clusterfuck over Abbott threatened to send the whole campaign into chaos. Then Trump got convicted and Mr P came out with his first poll, and it’s all forgotten.
I’m inclined to promote him to lucky field marshal.
(But, to be clear, he’s not going to be that lucky in Didcot and Wantage or other sovereign yellow turf).2 -
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.1 -
Very likelytlg86 said:Hmmm, Greens winning Bristol Central looks more likely with this sort of poll.
I am going to help in their office on the final weekend health permitting1 -
I wouldn’t trust any projection from a site which can’t even make its hosting withstand a predictable wave of interest. Cloudflare is a thing, you know.0
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Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q3 -
It's not. I'm fairly confident the country is still broadly in two camps, but they decisively want revenge on the Tories and Labour is the mechanism.Sean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their own pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
They're not going to last long in office if they forget that.0 -
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.0 -
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1796636336910123320Casino_Royale said:Hmm. Method.
Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?
MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.
To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.
Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.
Sam Freedman @Samfr
We're getting the first YouGov MRP on Tuesday, which I suspect will be a fair bit friendlier to the Tories, albeit still very bad.2 -
I haven't read the notes on this poll yet, but on the last MRP that's what they found too - polling averages came up with similar numbers to the MRP. The only difference was the underlying seats that made up the totals.Casino_Royale said:Hmm. Method.
Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?
MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.
To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.
Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.0 -
In other news could Sheffield United be about to pip Man City to the Premiership?Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q0 -
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them2 -
0
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Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.1 -
I think it's an MRP poll with a tactical voting model on top.Casino_Royale said:Hmm. Method.
Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?
MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.
To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.
Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.1 -
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.0 -
Local elections, while bad, showed they have enough in enough areas to avoid annihilation. In the real stretch targets, there won't be enough opposition activity on the ground.williamglenn said:
It seems realistic to me. Why not?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Realistic? No.
Hilarious? Oh yes.1 -
WE'RE IN SOME REAL FRUITY SHIT NOW, MAN!Sunil_Prasannan said:GAME OVER, MAN! GAME OVER!
0 -
There's been some suggestion that Reform supporters are quite a distinct bunch - much higher rates of Trump support, for example - and they might be more motivated by antipathy towards the current Conservative government than the future Labour government.Casino_Royale said:A moment of caution: MRP will be modelling current polling, including the possibly overcooking of Reform, and they're usually most accurate a week to 10 days out.
I've been surprised that Farage's announcement he was sitting the election out didn't immediately lead to a decline in the Reform poll share.0 -
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them1 -
I mentioned the other day how lost the Telegraph seems right now. I take the Saturday edition and it’s become a really weird experience.stodge said:
Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
They are genuinely bewildered about what’s happening.0 -
I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.0 -
Thanks. I'll wait for that one.tlg86 said:
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1796636336910123320Casino_Royale said:Hmm. Method.
Is this actually an MRP? Or have they just fucked about with the electoral calculus model and overlaid it on each seat?
MRP doesn't mean any old seat by seat prediction; it means multi-level modelling and post-stratification constituency projection.
To be done correctly you must first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. And then use data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’). Like what YouGov does.
Looking at the seat numbers here this looks very similar to the existing Electoral Calculus forecast, which simply applies current polling averages.
Sam Freedman @Samfr
We're getting the first YouGov MRP on Tuesday, which I suspect will be a fair bit friendlier to the Tories, albeit still very bad.0 -
Good for you BJO. Much as I disagree with you on Labour, I admire your commitment to progressive change.bigjohnowls said:
Very likelytlg86 said:Hmmm, Greens winning Bristol Central looks more likely with this sort of poll.
I am going to help in their office on the final weekend health permitting0 -
Probably dawning on them that their incessant sniping hasn't actually done "their side" a lot of favours.Heathener said:
I mentioned the other day how lost the Telegraph seems right now. I take the Saturday edition and it’s become a really weird experience.stodge said:
Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
They are genuinely bewildered about what’s happening.1 -
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?-1 -
Remember Mike’s Golden Rule
By all means diss a poll but don’t do it just because you don’t like its findings
(That’s not the Golden Rule but kinda)1 -
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.0 -
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them0 -
Did you miss Things Can Only Get Better?bondegezou said:
I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.0 -
It was Boris Johnson that did that by weakening the skilled worker visa. Sunak is now tightening things up.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them0 -
You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?0 -
Circular firing squad is the speciality.RobD said:
Probably dawning on them that their incessant sniping hasn't actually done "their side" a lot of favours.Heathener said:
I mentioned the other day how lost the Telegraph seems right now. I take the Saturday edition and it’s become a really weird experience.stodge said:
Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
They are genuinely bewildered about what’s happening.1 -
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.5 -
I will believe it when I see the metaphorical stake, garlic, crossroads, etc.1
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FPT - Was charmed by Cookie's tale of his schoolboy belief that Jewish people were endowed with superior soccer skills, based on equally charming ignorance of the anti-Semitic origins, and consequent misunderstanding of the basic meaning, of school-yard banter.2
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It may be that Reform are simply measuring a degree of abstentions, *and* overpolling Labour support and VI at the same time.LostPassword said:
There's been some suggestion that Reform supporters are quite a distinct bunch - much higher rates of Trump support, for example - and they might be more motivated by antipathy towards the current Conservative government than the future Labour government.Casino_Royale said:A moment of caution: MRP will be modelling current polling, including the possibly overcooking of Reform, and they're usually most accurate a week to 10 days out.
I've been surprised that Farage's announcement he was sitting the election out didn't immediately lead to a decline in the Reform poll share.
That could account for a bit of the delta.0 -
Things can only get better is an expression of how shit things are now (or were then). Things can only get better because we're at rock bottom.Casino_Royale said:
Did you miss Things Can Only Get Better?bondegezou said:
I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.1 -
Ben (Britain Elects) Walker suitably acerbic:
Me, sobbing
You can't just headline MRP atop some random numbers and expect the whole ass media to take them as blanket truth
You, SEO'ing
MRP poll goes brrr
https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/17966373667879244581 -
The only hope for the country is the destruction of the Tories so they are replaced by something better. An actual right wing party that does right wing thingsCasino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
And I am in such despair at our politics I am honestly prepared to give the lame-ass Starmer a shot. Why not. He might do ok. He might actually think about the future of Britons who aren’t 70 year old home owners or property developers or billionaire party donors1 -
I converted your mum.bondegezou said:
You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?0 -
Boris was liberal on migration anyway, believed his own propaganda on it, and thought it'd lead to an economic boom.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
So, he took all the brakes off.0 -
Wow.0
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One of my schoolmates is a farmer in Richmond. He won’t be voting for the Tories.pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.2 -
Who fucking cares. They did it. Its on their watch. Let them get in the sea, and not in a small boatWillG said:
It was Boris Johnson that did that by weakening the skilled worker visa. Sunak is now tightening things up.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them0 -
What do you think the Prime Minister is in FPTP?Casino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.0 -
We keep getting jaws dropping numbers2
-
Lots of mights there. You haven't a clue.Leon said:
The only hope for the country is the destruction of the Tories so they are replaced by something better. An actual right wing party that does right wing thingsCasino_Royale said:
Do you want SKS being a virtual dictator for 5 years?Leon said:
That’s how I see it. Get rid. We need a confident populist right wing party that isn’t terrified of the guardian or what their Islington neighbours will think. It will arise in time, politics abhors a vacuum. The trouble is we must endure at least a term of labour but 1. They deserve a go and who knows they may do ok and 2. It is literally impossible to feel sad as this bunch of Tories departsSean_F said:Perhaps, like the 1920’s Liberals, a party just stops representing any significant element of the population. The Conservatives’ strategy of talking right, acting left, and lining their pockets seems to have reached the end of the road.
Centre right politics is probably pointless now, in the UK.
And I am in such despair at our politics I am honestly prepared to give the lame-ass Starmer a shot. Why not. He might do ok. He might actually think about the future of Britons who aren’t 70 year old home owners or property developers or billionaire party donors
He 'might' use your vote to take us straight back into the EU, or create 'safe and legal routes' to expand migration still further.
History shows the man has zero loyalty to any platform he's elected on as soon as he finds it inconvenient, and he's entirely disingenuous.0 -
Well, it’s Russian pessimist v Russian optimist.bondegezou said:
Things can only get better is an expression of how shit things are now (or were then). Things can only get better because we're at rock bottom.Casino_Royale said:
Did you miss Things Can Only Get Better?bondegezou said:
I think after the '97 election, there was a sense of hope, but that feeling was much more muted in the campaign. The campaign and the vote were about kicking out the Tories, just like now.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
The optimist believes things can’t get worse. The pessimist knows they will.1 -
I am however highly confident that Sunak will no longer have his seat in a few months' time.0
-
Whenever my late Mum met people like you, she'd start talking about how she'd done close to 5000 vasectomies.Casino_Royale said:
I converted your mum.bondegezou said:
You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?2 -
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)0 -
Raises the question: are they targeting the right seats for defence? Or ones that are actually no-hopers?0
-
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?2 -
And the day after that?RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.1 -
And to recap FPT -bondegezou said:
Whenever my late Mum met people like you, she'd start talking about how she'd done close to 5000 vasectomies.Casino_Royale said:
I converted your mum.bondegezou said:
You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/may/31/men-and-other-mammals-live-longer-if-they-are-castrated-says-researcher1 -
Be careful what you wish for.Leon said:
Who fucking cares. They did it. Its on their watch. Let them get in the sea, and not in a small boatWillG said:
It was Boris Johnson that did that by weakening the skilled worker visa. Sunak is now tightening things up.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them0 -
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...0 -
The idiotic Spectator magazine tried to claim “it happened by mistake”Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Literally. An error. A tiny oversight. Whoops, we let in 2,000,000 migrants in 3 years. These things happen. Never mind
Fuck off with that. Just fuck off to fuckoffistan on a fuck off great camel called Al Fuckoff1 -
These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?1 -
In 1997 we made outrageous gains in untargetted seats. Ground game counts for little in a GE.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Local elections, while bad, showed they have enough in enough areas to avoid annihilation. In the real stretch targets, there won't be enough opposition activity on the ground.williamglenn said:
It seems realistic to me. Why not?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Realistic? No.
Hilarious? Oh yes.0 -
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)0 -
A
+ Staff for the NHS.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)0 -
FWIW I don’t think this is all that likely, but it might happen.
My prediction, made on 23/5, remains:
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab majority 185, just a trifle less than 1997 which in itself would be astonishing from where they start.0 -
HOW can punters rely on polls, that do NOT even ask about support for the powerful, underground political movement that seeks the overthrow of the UK and also England, in the interests of an ever-expanding East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere?
When will pollster learn to plum the depths of extreme Cornish Nationalism? Perhaps when the Mother of Parliaments is relocated from Westminster Estate to the Lands End Theme Park?0 -
She got onto that, yes, but only after she'd pledged me her vote.bondegezou said:
Whenever my late Mum met people like you, she'd start talking about how she'd done close to 5000 vasectomies.Casino_Royale said:
I converted your mum.bondegezou said:
You must be a boon to your party when out campaigning.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, the child has turned up.Heathener said:
Clearly we can’t overestimate the importance of tactical votingSystem said:Incoming extinction level event for the Tories – politicalbetting.com?GENERAL ELECTION 2024: FIRST MRP POLL? We at @electcalculus and @findoutnow asked over 10k people for @DailyMailUK who they intended to vote for in the general election. Seats tally CON: 66 LAB: 476 LD: 59 Reform: 0 Green: 2 This accounts for tactical voting.
Well, in 1997 Tony was hailed as the Messiah so things could only go one way from there.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
That’s why I think Labour will win at least 3 terms, because Starmer starts from much lower expectations. Things really can only get better this time.
And that’s very, very, healthy.
But yeah you’re right. We’re seething with the tories and they’re about to get the mother of all kickings. You screwed with just about everything that makes for wellbeing in this nation. So now take your medicine.
Isn't it past your bedtime?0 -
An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?0 -
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.
4 -
Has she also heard anything about Sadiq Khan losing in London?stodge said:
Desperate stuff from one of the chief Conservative cheerleaders.Theuniondivvie said:I’d be fckng whispering it as well, luv.
https://x.com/camillatominey/status/1796565238004736015?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q2 -
The Tories already tried to do that with Mr Johnson. Very fine piece of augury in this painting, so to speak.TimS said:
We’ve been through a difficult few years as a country. Certainly the last 8 years but arguably the last 17, since the run on Northern Rock.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh I don't know. Revenge works - an awful lot of people want to demolish the Tory party for an entertainingly large number of reasons.Casino_Royale said:
Unlike 1997 this is an election motivated by revenge, not hope.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
And not healthy.
What we get instead will have its own problems - we can all list them. So its not about hope, its about retribution. People want E.L.E. because they don't want a government this egregiously awful again in their lifetimes. But that's the rational side. On the emotional side people want E.L.E. because they want to punish the Tory party.
Sorry, I know the remaining 6 Tory activists hate this. I joined a LibDem party reduced to a minibus full. It isn't fun. But sometimes it is justified. And oh bioy, is this justified.
The national rejoicing the day after E.L.E. will be something utterly wonderful.
It’s not fair to blame the Tories for everything, but Leviticus 16, 21-22 says it all:
Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.
https://victorianweb.org/painting/whh/replete/scapegoat.html0 -
Sergeant Sunil: "All right, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?"
PB Tories: "Yeah!"
Sergeant Sunil: "Are ya mean?
PB Tories: "Yeah!"
Sergeant Sunil: "WHAT ARE YOU?"
PB Tories: "Lean and mean!"
Sergeant Sunil: "WHAT ARE YOU? CASINO ROYALE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badassess! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!"1 -
Is Crackpot in this constituency?eek said:
Richmond is basically Richmond (small market town), a large amount of the Dales, Nothallerton (has Betty's but no Booths) and Catterick..pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
With Catterick it could easily go Red - there is a LOT of new buildings there...1 -
FARMERS: Utterly shagged by Brexit and replacing CAP subsidies with nothing,Monksfield said:
One of my schoolmates is a farmer in Richmond. He won’t be voting for the Tories.pigeon said:
Richmond is all farmers and old people. If the Conservative Party can't even hold on there, they are finished.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'll be amazed if Sunak holds on in Richmond.
EDIT: to clarify, Sunak is not going to lose his seat. How many troops he has left at the end of all this, well, that's a different matter, of course.
PENSIONERS: Sending the grandkids to the army
2 -
The country has been ruined thanks to around 150k of aging pensioner tory members who have given us Johnson, Truss and Sunak in succession. They are completely out of touch with the modern world and their party is about to be battered.kyf_100 said:
An interesting venn diagram (with a very small intersection I imagine!)Sean_F said:
Home owners, without mortgages, who like mass migration.kyf_100 said:
It's quite something that the Conservatives have destroyed both their right and left flank.Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
If you're a small state, social liberal, the party left you a decade ago.
If you're a small c, statist conservative worried about immigration, as you say, the 2m immigrants in the last 2 years say hi.
Who is the modern conservative party for, exactly?
The fundamental problem is the tory membership. It is not a mass party representing various walks of life any more.3 -
Those are odd results. How on earth do the SNP do better with tactical voting? Isn’t the entire anti-SNP voting pattern in Scotland driven by unionist tactical voting?ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)1 -
They can say what they like.bondegezou said:
I believe Labour have said they want to reduce overall immigration, with a focus on skills training to fill gaps in the labour market, like with healthcare.pigeon said:
Mass migration shores up the tax base, house prices and rental incomes. Plus, most of the population doesn't pay attention to immigration for work or study purposes. It's therefore small wonder that the current Government uses boat people bashing to try to shore up its base, but makes only fitful attempts in other areas.Sean_F said:
I do wonder what they were thinking (do they think?)Leon said:
They let in 2m migrants in 3 years. An act of such astounding irresponsibility, so evilly reckless, so utterly unasked for, so obviously unmandated, I want the Tories destroyed forever. I want them pulped into nothing. I want them turned into political atoms and dispersed by the solar windsMonksfield said:
I wonder why? Maybe it’s because the Tories and their obsessions have simply not addressed the nation’s concerns. And after being huckstered by BoZo, the people have got an XXXL sized dose of buyers remorse.Leon said:The worst signal for the Tories is that right wingers on here are looking at these apocalyptic polls and shrugging and saying “meh, whatevs, they deserve it”
Almost everyone has deserted them
Labour will be fixated on the boat people whilst leaving everyone else alone for all the same reasons (with bells on, because so many on the left are for open borders.)
I'm not sure any governing party has what it takes to stop mass immigration, whilst also developing the economy.
It requires too much of a change to our economic model and the international treaty and legal system.0 -
His seat by the pool in California, however...EPG said:I am however highly confident that Sunak will no longer have his seat in a few months' time.
2 -
The MRP is picking up some resilience for the SNP.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
The tactical voting adjustment is fascinating - that's the Reform voters coming back in some places, but the Lib Dems winning the Blue Wall? I wonder how they modelled Scotland for the SNP to lose fewer seats.0 -
The Lab on 500+ seats is the best ELE punt on BFX. Priced at 22 at the moment.ToryJim said:These are the figures with and without tactical voting
🚨📊 || MRP Poll from @ElectCalculus
/ @FindoutnowUK:
Without Tactical Voting
🌹 LAB: 493 (+297)
🌳 CON: 72 (-300)
🔶 LDM: 39 (+31)
🎗️ SNP: 22 (-26)
🌼 PLC: 4 (+2)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)
With Tactical Voting:
🌹 LAB: 476 (+280)
🌳 CON: 66 (-306)
🔶 LDM: 59 (+51)
🎗️ SNP: 26 (-22)
🌼 PLC: 3 (+1)
🌍 GRN: 2 (+1)0 -
Short of the tories declaring to rejoin the EU, the railway tracks are heading right over the cliff edge and into a hard landing. It will be total wipeout. People just want them out, no matter the cost.1
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A majority of 185 would be a trifle more than 1997 (maj 179), just saying.Heathener said:FWIW I don’t think this is all that likely, but it might happen.
My prediction, made on 23/5, remains:
Lab 421
Con 160
LibDem 30
SNP 14
Lab majority 185, just a trifle less than 1997 which in itself would be astonishing from where they start.3
