Something to ponder before betting on this election – politicalbetting.com

System · May 24

Something to ponder before betting on this election – politicalbetting.com

I expect the polls to change. You expect the polls to change. But there's been so much abnormality this past year and a bit when it comes to public opinion that we now need to seriously consider they won't.https://t.co/XUtX3xRR2O

Read the full story here

tlg86 · May 24

First.

El_Capitano · May 24

Second like... oh you know all this already

SirNorfolkPassmore · May 24

tlg86 said:
First.

But by what margin?

Scott_xP · May 24

@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)

Quincel · May 24

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

I agree. In a world where there was no government, the outcome would be as you suggest.

However, that is not the world we live in. In the world we live in, retirees have votes, and make up an increasing proportion of voters.

Look around the world: in Italy the old have shafted the young by keeping them in the Euro. Look at the rust belt in the US: the reason the young are fleeing to the sunbelt is because of the high taxes needed to pay benefits to retirees. And every young person that leaves makes the voter base ever more dominated by oldies. Look at Japan, where ghost towns proliferate and the birth rate continues to plummet, because who needs the twin burdens of paying for oldies and paying for children.

Somebody once said that democracy dies when we realize we can all vote ourselves a pay rise. The greying of the electorate is causing exactly that scenario: a class of voters who are deeply invested in the status quo, at the expense of the young.
How will it end? Will the young rebel against democracy?

2024 will be the first election where Millenials are the largest voting bloc (though possibly not in reality given turnout levels). It will also be the first election the median voter born in 1955 will lose*.

It will end by a new generation voting to move money away from pensioners towards working age people. With falling fertility rates we may face an even worse problem when Millenials retire, though.

*(Just to be clear what this means: If you were born in 1955 and you voted the most common way people your age voted at each election, you would have voted for the winner every single time. Labour in 74, Tory in 79, 83, 87, and 92, Labour in 97, 01, 05, Tory in 10, 15, 17, and 19. Leave in 2016. You would have never had an election go against you. Until 2024, assuming people in their late 60s/early 70s vote Tory more than Labour.)

Chameleon · May 24

NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)

This is getting rather pathetic and tedious. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

He is certainly crap at campaigning, nobody know what the bloody hell there were thinking calling the GE now. Valid criticism is the doing the announcement in the rain, that was bloody idiotic, somebody snapping a photo from their phone on a plane and turning it into this mega PR disaster is boring.

LostPassword · May 24

Quincel said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

I agree. In a world where there was no government, the outcome would be as you suggest.

However, that is not the world we live in. In the world we live in, retirees have votes, and make up an increasing proportion of voters.

Look around the world: in Italy the old have shafted the young by keeping them in the Euro. Look at the rust belt in the US: the reason the young are fleeing to the sunbelt is because of the high taxes needed to pay benefits to retirees. And every young person that leaves makes the voter base ever more dominated by oldies. Look at Japan, where ghost towns proliferate and the birth rate continues to plummet, because who needs the twin burdens of paying for oldies and paying for children.

Somebody once said that democracy dies when we realize we can all vote ourselves a pay rise. The greying of the electorate is causing exactly that scenario: a class of voters who are deeply invested in the status quo, at the expense of the young.
How will it end? Will the young rebel against democracy?
2024 will be the first election where Millenials are the largest voting bloc (though possibly not in reality given turnout levels). It will also be the first election the median voter born in 1955 will lose*.

It will end by a new generation voting to move money away from pensioners towards working age people. With falling fertility rates we may face an even worse problem when Millenials retire, though.

*(Just to be clear what this means: If you were born in 1955 and you voted the most common way people your age voted at each election, you would have voted for the winner every single time. Labour in 74, Tory in 79, 83, 87, and 92, Labour in 97, 01, 05, Tory in 10, 15, 17, and 19. Leave in 2016. You would have never had an election go against you. Until 2024, assuming people in their late 60s/early 70s vote Tory more than Labour.)

Wonder if they might swing late for Starmer to keep their winning record?

SirNorfolkPassmore · May 24

On topic, it's an interesting outside possibility. One thing I suspect will count against it is that, to make those sorts of losses, you're looking at seats where Labour or the Lib Dems (as relevant) aren't going to be fighting active campaigns both due to lack of boots on the ground and activists being pretty much ordered into more realistic targets. In those seats, the sitting Tory MP will be seen about a fair bit, and most people broadly like their MP. The main opposition will also be unclear due to limited activity.

It's not impossible that it could be so bad for the Tories that even that isn't enough. But the lack of big campaigns in most of the 150 safest Tory seats is probably a bit of a sandbag for them against even a very high tide.

Pro_Rata · May 24

The whole proportional / regional swing pattern really does make for a larger range of seat possibilities than usual because it just brings lots of seats in lots of places into the marginal window.

Even if I were a spread better, I might sit this one out.

Carnyx · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.

turbotubbs · May 24

Chameleon said:
NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.

WTF is wrong with that? Honestly I think people are attacking everything he says and does.

LostPassword · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

Yes. It's less a sign of how rubbish Sunak or his campaign team are, but if how deeply unpopular he is that journos are scrabbling around to find/invent examples of him being crap.

Unless there comes to be a bit more substance to it I think it will be a game they will tire of pretty soon.

rcs1000 · May 24

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
On topic, it's an interesting outside possibility. One thing I suspect will count against it is that, to make those sorts of losses, you're looking at seats where Labour or the Lib Dems (as relevant) aren't going to be fighting active campaigns both due to lack of boots on the ground and activists being pretty much ordered into more realistic targets. In those seats, the sitting Tory MP will be seen about a fair bit, and most people broadly like their MP. The main opposition will also be unclear due to limited activity.

It's not impossible that it could be so bad for the Tories that even that isn't enough. But the lack of big campaigns in most of the 150 safest Tory seats is probably a bit of a sandbag for them against even a very high tide.

I think that's right: there will be a lot of seats - particularly in the South East, and particularly where there have been big boundary changes - where Conservative MPs will hang on due to an inefficient anti-Tory vote.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of seats go from notionals of:

60 - Con
25 - LD
10 - Lab

to

35 - Con
30 - LD
30 - Lab

Quincel · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic and tedious. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

He is certainly crap at campaigning, nobody know what the bloody hell there were thinking calling the GE now. Valid criticism is the doing the announcement in the rain, that was bloody idiotic, somebody snapping a photo from their phone on a plane and turning it into this mega PR disaster is boring.

Reminds me of Gordon Brown visiting a school and being photographed with a swastika in the background on a board with some WW2 project on it. People seem to love this stuff but what does it prove?

Nigelb · May 24

TBF, no one is likely to be firing ATACMS at Turkey anytime soon, but the must still be a bit miffed.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1793942422138806460
When Turkey and India spent nearly $9 billion to buy S-400 batteries from Russia, this is not exactly the performance they had in mind. Watch the Russian S-400 system fire its load, and then an entire S-400 battery — four launchers and a radar — get wiped out by Ukrainian-operated ATACMS missiles.

BartholomewRoberts · May 24

Why the assumption that the polls will change in the Tories favour? Entirely possible the opposite will happen.

I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this election yet, waiting for the manifestos. Anyone who liberates construction will get my vote but not sure anyone will.

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.

One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms? And beyond that, does Sunak have a plan for anything, so far no sign of it, that is absolutely valid criticism.

Taz · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic and tedious. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

He is certainly crap at campaigning, nobody know what the bloody hell there were thinking calling the GE now. Valid criticism is the doing the announcement in the rain, that was bloody idiotic, somebody snapping a photo from their phone on a plane and turning it into this mega PR disaster is boring.

We’ve got another five and a half weeks of this crap too.

Alanbrooke · May 24

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.

Of course they cant. and its a bit spoilsport to deny you your fun.

Bear in mind though that about week 3 or 4 SKS will have a couple of days when it all goes to shit. Every campaign has them. So no moaning.

megasaur · May 24

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
Yes. It's less a sign of how rubbish Sunak or his campaign team are, but if how deeply unpopular he is that journos are scrabbling around to find/invent examples of him being crap.

Unless there comes to be a bit more substance to it I think it will be a game they will tire of pretty soon.

I think we can rely on Sunak to supply the substance. He is genuinely the guy in the video bragging about how he knew some working, well actually lower middle, class chaps at Oxford, huzzah. There's a lot of rich comedy to come.

ToryJim · May 24

On the New Statesman prediction they currently have Broxbourne going Labour by the tiniest margin. I’d be very surprised if that happened, especially as the local election results were pretty good from a Tory point of view. I think the majority will be a lot slimmer than before but I don’t see the Tories being defeated in that seat.

BartholomewRoberts · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms?

The ICJ ruling is a bloody disgrace, especially when it's not tied to a release of the hostages.

Israel, who are not a party to the ICJ, are well within their rights to give an Arkell v Pressdram response to the ruling.

Scott_xP · May 24

How long before they hide him in a fridge?

Ghedebrav · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:
Why the assumption that the polls will change in the Tories favour? Entirely possible the opposite will happen.

I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this election yet, waiting for the manifestos. Anyone who liberates construction will get my vote but not sure anyone will.

Do you live somewhere your vote is likely to matter? I will only be voting one way, and it's not for the party I actually support so for me manifestos are really neither here nor there.

I agree on not assuming swingback, though I do suspect a fair chunk of the Reform polling may return to the Cons in the sober light of the polling booth (if indeed it makes it that far).

SeaShantyIrish2 · May 24

Quincel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic and tedious. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

He is certainly crap at campaigning, nobody know what the bloody hell there were thinking calling the GE now. Valid criticism is the doing the announcement in the rain, that was bloody idiotic, somebody snapping a photo from their phone on a plane and turning it into this mega PR disaster is boring.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown visiting a school and being photographed with a swastika in the background on a board with some WW2 project on it. People seem to love this stuff but what does it prove?

Nothing EXCEPT the inherent lazzzzzzzzziness of the typical journo.

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms?
The ICJ ruling is a bloody disgrace, especially when it's not tied to a release of the hostages.

Israel, who are not a party to the ICJ, are well within their rights to give an Arkell v Pressdram response to the ruling.

It might be, but it does raise tricky questions for the likes of US and UK politicians. Its a serious question to ask them, Israel has signalled already they will continue on, what is your position, why, do you have your own redlines, etc. Its grown up proper stuff that needs addressing.

SeaShantyIrish2 · May 24

FPT

noneoftheabove - In Ohio they are trying to keep Biden off the ballot.

SSI - As a Democrat, personally feel that this is partly - if not mainly - the fault of the Democratic National Committee. For agreeing to schedule 2024 Democratic National Convention AFTER the Ohio legal deadline.

Especially since this was also an issue FOUR YEARS AGO, when the Buckeye State legislature took action to suspend the deadline for 2020 general election.

OF COURSE the legislature SHOULD do so again - that's up to the Republican majority in both houses.

MattW · May 24

I'm staying off the spreads.

Too expensive last time.

Sean_F · May 24

Ghedebrav said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
Why the assumption that the polls will change in the Tories favour? Entirely possible the opposite will happen.

I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this election yet, waiting for the manifestos. Anyone who liberates construction will get my vote but not sure anyone will.
Do you live somewhere your vote is likely to matter? I will only be voting one way, and it's not for the party I actually support so for me manifestos are really neither here nor there.

I agree on not assuming swingback, though I do suspect a fair chunk of the Reform polling may return to the Cons in the sober light of the polling booth (if indeed it makes it that far).

I doubt that Reform will field 630 candidates, and minus Farage, they aren't going to be winning 12%.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

When will we get the first YouGov MRP? Going by 2017 and 2019, the first one they do is more accurate

rcs1000 · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:
Why the assumption that the polls will change in the Tories favour? Entirely possible the opposite will happen.

I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this election yet, waiting for the manifestos. Anyone who liberates construction will get my vote but not sure anyone will.

Free The Building Three!

rcs1000 · May 24

Scott_xP said:
How long before they hide him in a fridge?

@Leon?

Nigelb · May 24

MattW said:
I'm staying off the spreads.

Too expensive last time.

Stay off the carbs entirely, and then you won't need any spreads ?

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Quincel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic and tedious. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

He is certainly crap at campaigning, nobody know what the bloody hell there were thinking calling the GE now. Valid criticism is the doing the announcement in the rain, that was bloody idiotic, somebody snapping a photo from their phone on a plane and turning it into this mega PR disaster is boring.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown visiting a school and being photographed with a swastika in the background on a board with some WW2 project on it. People seem to love this stuff but what does it prove?
Nothing EXCEPT the inherent lazzzzzzzzziness of the typical journo.

This is what proper journalism looks like,

Is the LAM a Scam? Down the rabbit hole we go.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLvFc_24vSM

Totally exposing Rabbit R1 as a shady NFT company (part 1 of the video), then part 2 about how absolutely fraudulent claims about their AI model that powers the device. Where as all the tech media were ohhhing and arrhing over it, then to say oh its a bit plasticy toylike and doesn't work that well yet, totally missing the real story.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)

Can you provide some comment if you're just going to copy and paste Tweets? I know I do it but I also provide a question or some thought on it. You are just a Twitter feed and it's starting to grate.

(If PB would prefer I didn't post Tweets with comment I will happily stop - but I like to reference what I am talking about.)

Redditch · May 24

Quincel said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

I agree. In a world where there was no government, the outcome would be as you suggest.

However, that is not the world we live in. In the world we live in, retirees have votes, and make up an increasing proportion of voters.

Look around the world: in Italy the old have shafted the young by keeping them in the Euro. Look at the rust belt in the US: the reason the young are fleeing to the sunbelt is because of the high taxes needed to pay benefits to retirees. And every young person that leaves makes the voter base ever more dominated by oldies. Look at Japan, where ghost towns proliferate and the birth rate continues to plummet, because who needs the twin burdens of paying for oldies and paying for children.

Somebody once said that democracy dies when we realize we can all vote ourselves a pay rise. The greying of the electorate is causing exactly that scenario: a class of voters who are deeply invested in the status quo, at the expense of the young.
How will it end? Will the young rebel against democracy?
2024 will be the first election where Millenials are the largest voting bloc (though possibly not in reality given turnout levels). It will also be the first election the median voter born in 1955 will lose*.

It will end by a new generation voting to move money away from pensioners towards working age people. With falling fertility rates we may face an even worse problem when Millenials retire, though.

*(Just to be clear what this means: If you were born in 1955 and you voted the most common way people your age voted at each election, you would have voted for the winner every single time. Labour in 74, Tory in 79, 83, 87, and 92, Labour in 97, 01, 05, Tory in 10, 15, 17, and 19. Leave in 2016. You would have never had an election go against you. Until 2024, assuming people in their late 60s/early 70s vote Tory more than Labour.)

This election marks a watershed in that it marks the end of the boomers dominance over the political process. They have had a long run with their dominance arguably going back to the 1980s but all things eventually come to an end. I think even they realise younger people are no longer listening to their tired old tropes.

Nigelb · May 24

Where's @Morris_Dancer ?

Tasty top 5 in Monaco second practice.
1. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - 1:11.278
2. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) +0.188
3. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) +0.475
4. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) +0.535
5. Lando Norris (McLaren) +0.675

That will probably get shaken up, but might make for some good betting ?

numbertwelve · May 24

ToryJim said:
On the New Statesman prediction they currently have Broxbourne going Labour by the tiniest margin. I’d be very surprised if that happened, especially as the local election results were pretty good from a Tory point of view. I think the majority will be a lot slimmer than before but I don’t see the Tories being defeated in that seat.

Yes and this is where UNS will fall down and why I think - think - that 150 is about the base, in reality.

I suspect there will be parts of the country where the Tory vote holds up a little better. There were in the locals. There will be enough thin gruel that will make the core vote in those seats grudgingly drag themselves to the polls.

stodge · May 24

Late afternoon all

Once again it's all too easy to see the future through the prism of the past. We aren't looking at maiden form in handicaps here or draw bias - the past is probably no guide at all.

We still have the "I can't believe" posts which are the product of false experience - we know what has happened because it has happened before and it's easy to assume it will happen in the same way again but it may not. All elections are unique and have their own characteristics but had this place existed in 1906, 1931, 1945 and 1997 would we have been able to comprehend what has happening?

2024 may be one of those elections where the evidence is in front of us but we "refuse" to believe it because it is so far outside the experience of our times.

6 weeks out trading on spreads is for making a quick buck when the price moves in your favour, not for serious long term punting - save that for Haydock tomorrow.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

Why doesn't Sunak just pay the £1000 to a refugee charity? This is baffling logic.

bondegezou · May 24

Nigelb said:
TBF, no one is likely to be firing ATACMS at Turkey anytime soon, but the must still be a bit miffed.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1793942422138806460
When Turkey and India spent nearly $9 billion to buy S-400 batteries from Russia, this is not exactly the performance they had in mind. Watch the Russian S-400 system fire its load, and then an entire S-400 battery — four launchers and a radar — get wiped out by Ukrainian-operated ATACMS missiles.

It’s only a few months since US and Turkish forces were engaged: https://apnews.com/article/syria-turkey-shot-down-06b5b407e91ffb3d41096bbfe5f1ef75

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:
Why the assumption that the polls will change in the Tories favour? Entirely possible the opposite will happen.

I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this election yet, waiting for the manifestos. Anyone who liberates construction will get my vote but not sure anyone will.

I posted much the same earlier and questioned if we might not see a lower Tory rating during the campaign at some point, than what they started with.

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
Can you provide some comment if you're just going to copy and paste Tweets? I know I do it but I also provide a question or some thought on it. You are just a Twitter feed and it's starting to grate.

(If PB would prefer I didn't post Tweets with comment I will happily stop - but I like to reference what I am talking about.)

Reposting tweets can be interesting if they provide new information or a story e.g. I think this story over Sunak appearing to mislead the campaigner over the Manchester bombing is interesting. What we don't need then is 20 more tweets that are basically saying the same thing, what a knobhead, liar, etc, same as 20 more tweets from journalists all circle jerking about Sunak photoed near an exit sign on a plane (of all places). GE campaigns are busy and fast moving, there is already plenty of signal and ridiculous amount of noise.

Carnyx · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms? And beyond that, does Sunak have a plan for anything, so far no sign of it, that is absolutely valid criticism.

Don't disagree on the seriousness issue. But TBF the Titanic shot was set up by Mr S's team too. Who had pissed off many of the journos royally by treating them like steerage passengers on the aforesaid ship, only the rain wasn't in solid form!

Lennon · May 24

Somewhat random Q, but does anyone have a link to a spreadsheet or data file or similar of all the Constituencies and the Rallings/Thrasher Notionals for them?

El_Capitano · May 24

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
Yes. It's less a sign of how rubbish Sunak or his campaign team are, but if how deeply unpopular he is that journos are scrabbling around to find/invent examples of him being crap.

Unless there comes to be a bit more substance to it I think it will be a game they will tire of pretty soon.

Have you met many journalists?

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

stodge said:
Late afternoon all

Once again it's all too easy to see the future through the prism of the past. We aren't looking at maiden form in handicaps here or draw bias - the past is probably no guide at all.

We still have the "I can't believe" posts which are the product of false experience - we know what has happened because it has happened before and it's easy to assume it will happen in the same way again but it may not. All elections are unique and have their own characteristics but had this place existed in 1906, 1931, 1945 and 1997 would we have been able to comprehend what has happening?

2024 may be one of those elections where the evidence is in front of us but we "refuse" to believe it because it is so far outside the experience of our times.

6 weeks out trading on spreads is for making a quick buck when the price moves in your favour, not for serious long term punting - save that for Haydock tomorrow.

Based on recent elections, the margin of victory might be wrong but the winner has been predicted I think every time since 1997? Even in 2015 weren't the Tories marginally ahead (might be misremembering).

But in 2017, they said the Tories would win and they did - they just the margin wrong.
2019 - they got it almost bang on (I think Opinium was the best?)

So it seems to be that the polls are right and Labour is going to win. How much they win by, I don't know yet. I will take a decision when the debates happen.

numbertwelve · May 24

.

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
Yes. It's less a sign of how rubbish Sunak or his campaign team are, but if how deeply unpopular he is that journos are scrabbling around to find/invent examples of him being crap.

Unless there comes to be a bit more substance to it I think it will be a game they will tire of pretty soon.

The usual law of the UK media will kick in soon and we’ll probably get a “is Rishi being bullied and is he the plucky underdog?” angle for a few days.

MattW · May 24

No odds out for Ashfield yet

.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
Can you provide some comment if you're just going to copy and paste Tweets? I know I do it but I also provide a question or some thought on it. You are just a Twitter feed and it's starting to grate.

(If PB would prefer I didn't post Tweets with comment I will happily stop - but I like to reference what I am talking about.)
Reposting tweets can be interesting if they provide new information or a story e.g. I think this story over Sunak appearing to mislead the campaigner over the Manchester bombing is interesting. What we don't need then is 20 more tweets that are basically saying the same thing, what a knobhead, liar, etc, same as 20 more tweets from journalists all circle jerking about Sunak photoed near an exit sign on a plane (of all places). GE campaigns are busy and fast moving, there is already plenty of signal and ridiculous amount of noise.

That's pretty much where I am, well said.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

BTW, not sure if anyone read it last night but the Times reported that Labour believe Rayner will be cleared during the campaign. They are "very confident" (perhaps unsurprisingly).

Does anyone know when we will find out who the papers are supporting?

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why doesn't Sunak just pay the £1000 to a refugee charity? This is baffling logic.

Just yet another example of how poor Sunak is at politics. You get ahead of it, pay it, but you can spin it as if you elect me it will happen, Starmer has no plan. Although as we said yesterday, it has always been a sideshow when you are 1.3 million people coming legally every year.

stodge · May 24

Here in the election cauldron that is East Ham, it's got off to a very slow start.

Officially, we have no Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat candidates. The Greens are not going to try too hard and will work Stratford & Bow where they have a good chance of a strong second place.

I'm not sure if the Newham Independents application to the Electoral Commission, submitted on the 19th April, has been approved. They have a candidate in place though again not the strongest card in their pack and the suspicion is they will work West Ham & Beckton with their winning Council by-election candidate from Plaistow.

That will put East Ham in an electoral backwater - perhaps we'll see some Conservative and doubtless Labour activity not that it will make any difference. There will be worse 1/100 shots in this life than the odds on Labour holding the seat. I'd like to see a market on second place - there won't be much between the Conservatives and Greens but I favour the former.

FrancisUrquhart · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BTW, not sure if anyone read it last night but the Times reported that Labour believe Rayner will be cleared during the campaign. They are "very confident" (perhaps unsurprisingly).

Does anyone know when we will find out who the papers are supporting?

Is any paper going support the Tories. The Telegraph and ?...Mail has been pretty hostile to Tories for a quite a while (they backed Labour in 1997 I believe), Express is owned by Reach and is your Brexity Red Wall types, so not even that is a given (they might say vote Reform or something).

Sun will be time for a change (and we know which way the wind is blowing). Times will be the same.

El_Capitano · May 24

rcs1000 said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
On topic, it's an interesting outside possibility. One thing I suspect will count against it is that, to make those sorts of losses, you're looking at seats where Labour or the Lib Dems (as relevant) aren't going to be fighting active campaigns both due to lack of boots on the ground and activists being pretty much ordered into more realistic targets. In those seats, the sitting Tory MP will be seen about a fair bit, and most people broadly like their MP. The main opposition will also be unclear due to limited activity.

It's not impossible that it could be so bad for the Tories that even that isn't enough. But the lack of big campaigns in most of the 150 safest Tory seats is probably a bit of a sandbag for them against even a very high tide.
I think that's right: there will be a lot of seats - particularly in the South East, and particularly where there have been big boundary changes - where Conservative MPs will hang on due to an inefficient anti-Tory vote.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of seats go from notionals of:

60 - Con
25 - LD
10 - Lab

to

35 - Con
30 - LD
30 - Lab

Yes, I agree (I worry that Witney is going to end up like that, for example).

This is essentially in Labour's hands - they can choose to keep pushing out leaflets with Electoral Calculus-inspired nonsense about "we're in second place! honest we are!", or they can sit out and let the LibDems have a go. But my sense is that a lot of CLPs would rather see the Tories keep a seat than the LibDems win it.

stodge · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

stodge said:
Late afternoon all

Once again it's all too easy to see the future through the prism of the past. We aren't looking at maiden form in handicaps here or draw bias - the past is probably no guide at all.

We still have the "I can't believe" posts which are the product of false experience - we know what has happened because it has happened before and it's easy to assume it will happen in the same way again but it may not. All elections are unique and have their own characteristics but had this place existed in 1906, 1931, 1945 and 1997 would we have been able to comprehend what has happening?

2024 may be one of those elections where the evidence is in front of us but we "refuse" to believe it because it is so far outside the experience of our times.

6 weeks out trading on spreads is for making a quick buck when the price moves in your favour, not for serious long term punting - save that for Haydock tomorrow.
Based on recent elections, the margin of victory might be wrong but the winner has been predicted I think every time since 1997? Even in 2015 weren't the Tories marginally ahead (might be misremembering).

But in 2017, they said the Tories would win and they did - they just the margin wrong.
2019 - they got it almost bang on (I think Opinium was the best?)

So it seems to be that the polls are right and Labour is going to win. How much they win by, I don't know yet. I will take a decision when the debates happen.

Techne has the Don't Knows running at 12% generally but up to 17% among older, retired voters which "could" be a small boost for the Conservatives but in the 65+ age group, Labour leads 24-17 with 17% DKs, 15% Not Voting and 10% each for LDs and Reform.

Mexicanpete · May 24

I saw my first election poster today. In Jenner Road, Barry and it was for Labour.

AlsoLei · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms? And beyond that, does Sunak have a plan for anything, so far no sign of it, that is absolutely valid criticism.

On this, I wonder if SKS might commit to publishing the legal advice given to the govt? It would let him show a bit of leg by going further than the Tories without pissing either side off too much.

ToryJim · May 24

numbertwelve said:

ToryJim said:
On the New Statesman prediction they currently have Broxbourne going Labour by the tiniest margin. I’d be very surprised if that happened, especially as the local election results were pretty good from a Tory point of view. I think the majority will be a lot slimmer than before but I don’t see the Tories being defeated in that seat.
Yes and this is where UNS will fall down and why I think - think - that 150 is about the base, in reality.

I suspect there will be parts of the country where the Tory vote holds up a little better. There were in the locals. There will be enough thin gruel that will make the core vote in those seats grudgingly drag themselves to the polls.

Agree although I’m not sure if it will be the offer that determines it or the fact that in some areas the Tories have just put in the work. I happen to be relatively familiar with Broxbourne and know that the Labour Party is pretty moribund, there isn’t a Lib Dem presence, there’s a bit of Green activity and nowt from anyone else. The Tories aren’t necessarily hyperactive but they plod round reliably at elections and so in some sense the electorate is hardwired to vote Tory by default. Obviously there has been slippage in recent years but in the recent election they still took 9/10 seats up. There will be other areas where a similar situation prevails and also I suspect areas where the anti-Tory vote cancels itself out and the Tories slip through by the skin of their teeth. So 150 is probably the backstop but if it’s breached it will be a complete rout. My suspicion is that the Tories will ride their luck to about 175-180 but who knows.

dixiedean · May 24

Lennon said:
Somewhat random Q, but does anyone have a link to a spreadsheet or data file or similar of all the Constituencies and the Rallings/Thrasher Notionals for them?

Electoral Calculus has its own notionals front and centre on each constituency page.

rottenborough · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
BTW, not sure if anyone read it last night but the Times reported that Labour believe Rayner will be cleared during the campaign. They are "very confident" (perhaps unsurprisingly).

Does anyone know when we will find out who the papers are supporting?
Is any paper going support the Tories. The Telegraph and ?...Mail has been pretty hostile to Tories for a quite a while (they backed Labour in 1997 I believe), Express is owned by Reach and is your Brexity Red Wall types, so not even that is a given (they might say vote Reform or something).

Sun will be time for a change (and we know which way the wind is blowing). Times will be the same.

Telegraph already started publishing opinion pieces saying it has all been wrong of late and not conservatively red-meat enough policy-wise and so on. But then going on to say - Starmer would be even worse/total disaster/Lenin basically and therefore imploring the tory voters to come home and keep him out.

I think we will see a lot of that from now on.

How they will go on the editorial page I don't know.

rottenborough · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Why doesn't Sunak just pay the £1000 to a refugee charity? This is baffling logic.
Just yet another example of how poor Sunak is at politics. You get ahead of it, pay it, but you can spin it as if you elect me it will happen, Starmer has no plan. Although as we said yesterday, it has always been a sideshow when you are 1.3 million people coming legally every year.

Maybe he is tight?

Scott_xP · May 24

@gabyhinsliff

I used to roll my eyes at control freak spads moving ministers out of the way of signs etc when I was a reporter & ok now I apologise. This stuff doesn’t matter except when it does, which is..

…when everyone’s looking for this stuff, because the story now is this stuff, & that’s the groove you are stuck in. You can’t eat a bacon sandwich without someone making you look bad. You are almost certainly going to have a hot mic incident soon

It’s silly & kind of unfair & I have often felt sorry for the (generally young and not v well paid) spads who slip up on Day 49 Of No Sleep. But when you’re 20pts behind, you get seen through a kind of prism of ineptitude that once fixed is hard to shake

BartholomewRoberts · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms?
The ICJ ruling is a bloody disgrace, especially when it's not tied to a release of the hostages.

Israel, who are not a party to the ICJ, are well within their rights to give an Arkell v Pressdram response to the ruling.
It might be, but it does raise tricky questions for the likes of US and UK politicians. Its a serious question to ask them, Israel has signalled already they will continue on, what is your position, why, do you have your own redlines, etc. Its grown up proper stuff that needs addressing.

The US quite rightly is not a party to the ICJ, like Israel.

After today's despicable ruling, I would support us quitting such a twisted institution too.

My personal red line would be the unconditional release of all Israeli hostages taken last year, the unconditional surrender and disarmament of Hamas, and for Hamas to face justice for what they have done.

When that happens, then I would support the war ending. Until then, Israel has the right to self defence and if Hamas are in Rafah then they should be targeted there until they surrender unconditionally. Anyone who denies Israel the right to self defence is wrong, and that includes it seems the ICJ.

kle4 · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Quincel said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic and tedious. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.

He is certainly crap at campaigning, nobody know what the bloody hell there were thinking calling the GE now. Valid criticism is the doing the announcement in the rain, that was bloody idiotic, somebody snapping a photo from their phone on a plane and turning it into this mega PR disaster is boring.
Reminds me of Gordon Brown visiting a school and being photographed with a swastika in the background on a board with some WW2 project on it. People seem to love this stuff but what does it prove?
Nothing EXCEPT the inherent lazzzzzzzzziness of the typical journo.
This is what proper journalism looks like,

Is the LAM a Scam? Down the rabbit hole we go.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLvFc_24vSM

Totally exposing Rabbit R1 as a shady NFT company (part 1 of the video), then part 2 about how absolutely fraudulent claims about their AI model that powers the device. Where as all the tech media were ohhhing and arrhing over it, then to say oh its a bit plasticy toylike and doesn't work that well yet, totally missing the real story.

The companies and people Coffeezilla reports on do act much like politicians however, in that they will say they think you are biased or have an ulterior motive and so will not be answering questions they do not like.

megasaur · May 24

stodge said:
Late afternoon all

Once again it's all too easy to see the future through the prism of the past. We aren't looking at maiden form in handicaps here or draw bias - the past is probably no guide at all.

We still have the "I can't believe" posts which are the product of false experience - we know what has happened because it has happened before and it's easy to assume it will happen in the same way again but it may not. All elections are unique and have their own characteristics but had this place existed in 1906, 1931, 1945 and 1997 would we have been able to comprehend what has happening?

2024 may be one of those elections where the evidence is in front of us but we "refuse" to believe it because it is so far outside the experience of our times.

6 weeks out trading on spreads is for making a quick buck when the price moves in your favour, not for serious long term punting - save that for Haydock tomorrow.

1997 went exactly as had been expected from 4 if not 5 years out, and now feels like then. Tories will lose ground from here as details leak of the reason for the timing of the election. Sunak will be ten times the figure of fun he is now by polling day. Bet accordingly or dyor as applicable.

kle4 · May 24

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.

Dealing with bad, even unfair, press commentary is part of the job - if you cannot overcome it, you wouldn't be up for the job anyway.

Farooq · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms?
The ICJ ruling is a bloody disgrace, especially when it's not tied to a release of the hostages.

Israel, who are not a party to the ICJ, are well within their rights to give an Arkell v Pressdram response to the ruling.
It might be, but it does raise tricky questions for the likes of US and UK politicians. Its a serious question to ask them, Israel has signalled already they will continue on, what is your position, why, do you have your own redlines, etc. Its grown up proper stuff that needs addressing.
The US quite rightly is not a party to the ICJ, like Israel.

After today's despicable ruling, I would support us quitting such a twisted institution too.

My personal red line would be the unconditional release of all Israeli hostages taken last year, the unconditional surrender and disarmament of Hamas, and for Hamas to face justice for what they have done.

When that happens, then I would support the war ending. Until then, Israel has the right to self defence and if Hamas are in Rafah then they should be targeted there until they surrender unconditionally. Anyone who denies Israel the right to self defence is wrong, and that includes it seems the ICJ.

Uh, ok Donald.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:
The US quite rightly is not a party to the ICJ, like Israel.

After today's despicable ruling, I would support us quitting such a twisted institution too.

My personal red line would be the unconditional release of all Israeli hostages taken last year, the unconditional surrender and disarmament of Hamas, and for Hamas to face justice for what they have done.

When that happens, then I would support the war ending. Until then, Israel has the right to self defence and if Hamas are in Rafah then they should be targeted there until they surrender unconditionally. Anyone who denies Israel the right to self defence is wrong, and that includes it seems the ICJ.

Isn't there a void you could go and shout into?

kle4 · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
The US quite rightly is not a party to the ICJ, like Israel.

After today's despicable ruling, I would support us quitting such a twisted institution too.

My personal red line would be the unconditional release of all Israeli hostages taken last year, the unconditional surrender and disarmament of Hamas, and for Hamas to face justice for what they have done.

When that happens, then I would support the war ending. Until then, Israel has the right to self defence and if Hamas are in Rafah then they should be targeted there until they surrender unconditionally. Anyone who denies Israel the right to self defence is wrong, and that includes it seems the ICJ.
Isn't there a void you could go and shout into?

Welcome to the void.

MJW · May 24

Just to out Leon-Leon, have had a lovely, if completely crackers, 10 days in Cannes.

And yes, Megalopolis is that insane.

MJW · May 24

turbotubbs said:

Chameleon said:
NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.
WTF is wrong with that? Honestly I think people are attacking everything he says and does.

Welcome to Gordon Brown's 2010 election campaign.

williamglenn · May 24

Taz said:

AlsoLei said:
The latest Tory ad:

The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.
More "Led By Donkeys" stuff.

Dear me.

Bring back Demon Eyes.

They could to a Keir Stalin poster.

LostPassword · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms? And beyond that, does Sunak have a plan for anything, so far no sign of it, that is absolutely valid criticism.

It's not like there aren't a lot of valid criticisms to make of Sunak, his policies, and the state that Britain is in. The public are very poorly served by political journalists.

kle4 · May 24

Lennon said:
Somewhat random Q, but does anyone have a link to a spreadsheet or data file or similar of all the Constituencies and the Rallings/Thrasher Notionals for them?

If anyone does AndyJS will - but the new constituencies might have scuppered resuing his 2019 sheet

megasaur · May 24

MJW said:
Just to out Leon-Leon, have had a lovely, if completely crackers, 10 days in Cannes.

And yes, Megalopolis is that insane.

Good insane or bad insane?

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

FrancisUrquhart said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
Can you provide some comment if you're just going to copy and paste Tweets? I know I do it but I also provide a question or some thought on it. You are just a Twitter feed and it's starting to grate.

(If PB would prefer I didn't post Tweets with comment I will happily stop - but I like to reference what I am talking about.)
Reposting tweets can be interesting if they provide new information or a story e.g. I think this story over Sunak appearing to mislead the campaigner over the Manchester bombing is interesting. What we don't need then is 20 more tweets that are basically saying the same thing, what a knobhead, liar, etc, same as 20 more tweets from journalists all circle jerking about Sunak photoed near an exit sign on a plane (of all places). GE campaigns are busy and fast moving, there is already plenty of signal and ridiculous amount of noise.

Those who post tweets should also post the link to the original so those of us who care can see it with the photo and in context.

rottenborough · May 24

turbotubbs said:

Chameleon said:
NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.
WTF is wrong with that? Honestly I think people are attacking everything he says and does.

Seems perfectly reasonable things to say to be honest.

Can these journos actually find out about some actual proposed policies and grill the candidates on that stuff please?

tlg86 · May 24

Am I missing something, or is there a reason that Bet365 have Labour as second favourites to win Arundel and South Downs? Surely the Lib Dems (40-1!!) should be the nearest challengers to the Tories?

kle4 · May 24

LostPassword said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:
@Nick_Pettigrew

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they?

(picture goes here)
This is getting rather pathetic. There are exit signs everywhere on a plane. Somebody takes a photo on their iphone its now a PR disaster. If Team Sunak was running around trying to cover up every exit sign or man-handling any journo who tries to take a snap, the press would be saying look how thin skinned he is.
The Tories were only too happy to condemn Mr Miliband for eating a bacon sandwich, though, so they can't very well complain now.
One difference with that was Team Miliband actually set that PR shot up to show how much of a normal bloke he was and he flopped it. But yes it the criticism was OTT. It is a sign of how unserious our media have become. As we found out during COVID most of them can't even add 2 + 2, but spend their lives on the tw@tter machine reposting total nonsense. It just gets worse and worse, that literally all they talk about.

As I said previous thread, the ICJ ruling on Israel, Israel's response, there are serious questions to ask Sunak and Starmer, what you going to do, still send arms? And beyond that, does Sunak have a plan for anything, so far no sign of it, that is absolutely valid criticism.
It's not like there aren't a lot of valid criticisms to make of Sunak, his policies, and the state that Britain is in. The public are very poorly served by political journalists.

I prefer to think of most as political commentators, since it's more about adding to the entertainment of the show that is politics, or advancing their own favour politics, than actually uncovering information and reporting on it.

Farooq · May 24

MJW said:
Just to out Leon-Leon, have had a lovely, if completely crackers, 10 days in Cannes.

And yes, Megalopolis is that insane.

You need to bleat tediously about your food, about how much better everywhere is than England and how you're always just on the verge of emigrating. Then off to the local bordello to ejaculate in some depressed and bored sex worker before falling asleep in a pool of spilled wine. Only then will you have out Leoned Leon.

Alanbrooke · May 24

williamglenn said:

Taz said:

AlsoLei said:
The latest Tory ad:

The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.
More "Led By Donkeys" stuff.

Dear me.

Bring back Demon Eyes.
They could to a Keir Stalin poster.

With those glassses I d go for Mr Potato Head.

Changes his policies faster than you can change his parts.

Quincel · May 24

tlg86 said:
Am I missing something, or is there a reason that Bet365 have Labour as second favourites to win Arundel and South Downs? Surely the Lib Dems (40-1!!) should be the nearest challengers to the Tories?

I think their model is following the MRPs and overall Blue Wall polling which finds Labour gaining more than the LDs in these seats. Other than ones where the LDs were clear 2nd they are not assuming big tactical support for the party.

I agree 40/1 is tasty though.

DougSeal · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:
The US quite rightly is not a party to the ICJ, like Israel.

After today's despicable ruling, I would support us quitting such a twisted institution too.

My personal red line would be the unconditional release of all Israeli hostages taken last year, the unconditional surrender and disarmament of Hamas, and for Hamas to face justice for what they have done.

When that happens, then I would support the war ending. Until then, Israel has the right to self defence and if Hamas are in Rafah then they should be targeted there until they surrender unconditionally. Anyone who denies Israel the right to self defence is wrong, and that includes it seems the ICJ.

Barty - get off this board, and then the planet.

megasaur · May 24

rottenborough said:

turbotubbs said:

Chameleon said:
NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.
WTF is wrong with that? Honestly I think people are attacking everything he says and does.
Seems perfectly reasonable things to say to be honest.

Can these journos actually find out about some actual proposed policies and grill the candidates on that stuff please?

Depends what he said, but if he was equating getting rained on with loss of hands and feet there's something a bit wrong with that.

Scott_xP · May 24

@estwebber
Exc w/@AgnesChambre
: Geraint Davies effectively ruled out of standing again while sexual misconduct inquiry continues

Selection is open in his Swansea West seat

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

Just seen the results of our first poll of the campaign! 👀

Follow
@OpiniumResearch
and
@ObserverUK
for the first of (at least) 7 polls we'll be conducting throughout the campaign - tables released tomorrow evening. #GE24

https://x.com/MrJCrouch/status/1794028217688269030

A massive Labour lead? Or the Tories making a recovery? Get your predictions in now

rottenborough · May 24

John Sweeney for Liberals in Andrew Mitchell's W Midlands seat may be a fun outing. Seems a bit of a character in trad liberal style. "The Sweeney have arrived" he shouts in town centre:

John Sweeney @johnsweeneyroar

Hiya gang I’m running against “Thrasher”
@AndrewmitchMP in Sutton Coldfield for @LibDems
standing up for clean rivers, rich people being taxed effectively and our friends in Ukraine. “Thrasher” has been whitewashing Rwanda: “You’re nicked my son.”

#TimeforTheSweeney.

https://x.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1793983360785584344

DecrepiterJohnL · May 24

rottenborough said:

turbotubbs said:

Chameleon said:
NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.
WTF is wrong with that? Honestly I think people are attacking everything he says and does.
Seems perfectly reasonable things to say to be honest.

Can these journos actually find out about some actual proposed policies and grill the candidates on that stuff please?

Reasonable? You do remember who Craig Mackinlay is?

tlg86 · May 24

Quincel said:

tlg86 said:
Am I missing something, or is there a reason that Bet365 have Labour as second favourites to win Arundel and South Downs? Surely the Lib Dems (40-1!!) should be the nearest challengers to the Tories?
I think their model is following the MRPs and overall Blue Wall polling which finds Labour gaining more than the LDs in these seats. Other than ones where the LDs were clear 2nd they are not assuming big tactical support for the party.

I agree 40/1 is tasty though.

Annoyingly they haven't got a market for Woking up. I'm thinking Labour might win it despite starting third. So, I can see Labour winning from third in some places, but Arundel and South Downs doesn't feel like such a place.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 24

williamglenn said:

Taz said:

AlsoLei said:
The latest Tory ad:

The £38.5 billion stuff is especially weak as it invites comparison with the Tory black hole, which is even bigger.
More "Led By Donkeys" stuff.

Dear me.

Bring back Demon Eyes.
They could do a Keir Stalin poster.

Or a "Keep Calmer and Vote Starmer" poster?

EPG · May 24

An irrationally large part of my brain is imagining a news programme decal on 4 July at 10pm saying "too close to call - Conservatives 315-330 seats - majority possible".

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 24

Any odds on Labour taking Basingstoke?

And Lib Dems taking Guildford, Winchester?

Mexicanpete · May 24

Has anyone mentioned Rishi was Titanic (museum) bound this afternoon?

Who is in charge of Sunak's PR?

rottenborough · May 24

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rottenborough said:

turbotubbs said:

Chameleon said:
NEW Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters on flight back from NI that he’s “up for the fight” and “absolutely” enjoying the campaign

But admits he’s had “difficult days” that make him think of Craig Mackinlay.

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1794005881740251172

Incredible the man's a lab-engineered combo of Shackleton, Drake, and Amundsen but for bad campaigning. Discovering whole new continents of uselessness.
WTF is wrong with that? Honestly I think people are attacking everything he says and does.
Seems perfectly reasonable things to say to be honest.

Can these journos actually find out about some actual proposed policies and grill the candidates on that stuff please?
Reasonable? You do remember who Craig Mackinlay is?

Maybe I am weird but seems the sort of thing many people say: "I had a really shit day yesterday in the office, then I thought of my mate who is fighting cancer and realised how small my troubles actually were" etc etc.

Alphabet_Soup · May 24

rottenborough said:
John Sweeney for Liberals in Andrew Mitchell's W Midlands seat may be a fun outing. Seems a bit of a character in trad liberal style. "The Sweeney have arrived" he shouts in town centre:

John Sweeney @johnsweeneyroar

Hiya gang I’m running against “Thrasher”
@AndrewmitchMP in Sutton Coldfield for @LibDems
standing up for clean rivers, rich people being taxed effectively and our friends in Ukraine. “Thrasher” has been whitewashing Rwanda: “You’re nicked my son.”

#TimeforTheSweeney.

https://x.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1793983360785584344

Whitewashing Rwanda sounds like one of the labours of Hercules. Just when you think you've finished another planeload arrives.

No_Offence_Alan · May 24

BartholomewRoberts said:
Why the assumption that the polls will change in the Tories favour? Entirely possible the opposite will happen.

I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this election yet, waiting for the manifestos. Anyone who liberates construction will get my vote but not sure anyone will.

Parties used to launch their manifestos with a fanfare.
Now, they sneak them out as late in the campaign as possible, before their opponents/the media/reality can pull them apart.

rottenborough · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Just seen the results of our first poll of the campaign! 👀

Follow
@OpiniumResearch
and
@ObserverUK
for the first of (at least) 7 polls we'll be conducting throughout the campaign - tables released tomorrow evening. #GE24

https://x.com/MrJCrouch/status/1794028217688269030

A massive Labour lead? Or the Tories making a recovery? Get your predictions in now

Tories within three points.

tlg86 · May 24

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Any odds on Labour taking Basingstoke?

And Lib Dems taking Guildford, Winchester?

Bet365 have Labour 1/4 to take Basingstoke.

Nothing on Guildford but Lib Dems 4/11 to take Winchester.

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