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Not looking good for Sunak as he approaches Truss levels – politicalbetting.com
Not looking good for Sunak as he approaches Truss levels – politicalbetting.com
NEW from @IpsosUK: 3 in 4 Brits think Rishi Sunak unlikely to win next General Election https://t.co/FDv829xxIK pic.twitter.com/0fDDpDrG0J
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PS: Frist!
TRUSS
SIGHTS
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FFS
(etc etc, roll eyes)
Cons get 15% in the GE.
He doesn't even appear to be able to lie convincingly.
(from this morning)
Inquiry chair Sir Wyn Williams interrupts to ask Davies to be clear which independent report he is referring to when he talks about inaccuracies.
Davies clarifies that he means the second report from Second Sight, published in 2015, which suggested that the Post Office acknowledged 100-150 sub-postmasters were pursuing claims on the basis they may have not have been at fault.
Davies says that is inaccurate because the Post Office had not made that acknowledgement. Williams says that by commissioning the independent report they had made that acknowledgement.
Davies says he didn't read it that way but Williams insists the wording is clear.
Probably...
Sunak and Truss would be interesting.
They could come to Westminster on a tandem.
(Ducks for cover. Only a media person would make that mistake).
Truss would become leader by default when Sunak took the Chiltern Hundreds and buggered off to the Pacific coast.
Edit: Proportionally, a similar result would see four Tory MPs, because the Canadian Parliament has roughly half as many members of its lower house - a new Gang of Four.
"The famous St Rollox rail depot in Glasgow is set to be re-opened after train manufacturer Gibson’s Engineering announced that it was to open its new engineering facility on the site."
https://www.railmagazine.com/news/2024/05/14/famous-st-rollox-works-in-glasgow-to-reopen
"It is expected the re-opening will create 1,000 jobs over the next five years and up to 10,000 over the next 10 years. Gibson’s Engineering plan to use the depot as a one-stop shop for train manufacturing, maintenance, and repairs on a mixture of light and heavy rolling stock. It also aims to have a fully electrified rail line from its facility to the mainline."
The state’s longtime attorney general is now the lone Bob Ferguson in the race for governor after two people with the same name withdrew from the race Monday. . . .
Their entrance into the race, orchestrated by conservative activist Glen Morgan, had raised legal and logistical questions, but the drama subsided Monday when the other Bobs dropped out under what they said was pressure from Bob Ferguson, the Democratic front-runner in the race.
The attorney general on Monday had urged the two to pull out by a 5 p.m. deadline for candidates to withdraw, or else risk felony charges. Flanked by supporters at Kerry Park in Queen Anne in the morning, Ferguson said his campaign had sent cease-and-desist letters to the other Bob Fergusons over the weekend.
State statute says that it is a felony for a person to file for an election with a surname similar to a person who has already filed for the same office “and whose political reputation is widely known, with intent to confuse and mislead the electors by capitalizing on the public reputation of the candidate who had previously filed.”
A statement posted on the website Neighbors for Bob Ferguson PAC, attributed to Robert Ferguson, an Army veteran in Graham, said the candidate was “faced with harassment and legal action if I did not withdraw from the race.” . . .
The second Bob Ferguson, a retired state employee from Yakima, withdrew later on Monday. In a statement to The Seattle Times, he said his “dream” had been “destroyed.” . . .
Ferguson — the attorney general — said Monday that he didn’t want the other two Bobs to be prosecuted and that he held “no ill will” toward them. He said he suspected they did not know the “legal implications” of their actions at the time they filed for election. . . .
Two of Ferguson’s leading rivals in the Aug. 6 primary, Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Mark Mullet, criticized the three-Bobs strategy in statements Monday.
“In all nine of my previous campaigns, I have won without any games or antics such as these,” said Reichert, a former congressman and King County sheriff. “I don’t support any effort to deceive the voters of Washington state.”
Mullet, a state senator, agreed the other Fergusons should drop out, calling it an “illegal sideshow” that would confused voters and threaten democracy.
However, Semi Bird, a Republican and former Richland School Board member running for governor, said Ferguson’s “whining” was disingenuous . . .
SSI - Personally think that Bob Ferguson the AG was wrong - at least politically and possibly legally - in threatening legal action to urge the other Bob Fergusons out of the 2024 governors race. Given that the AG is the state's top legal officer and enforcer. And especially since being listed on the August primary ballot as "Bob Ferguson (Attorney General)" would have helped HIM cut through the clutter of 30 (now 28) gubernatorial candidates.
"Uighur women are also made to endure pregnancy checks. Some are forced to have abortions, or get an IUD inserted. Others are sterilized by the state. Police are known to rip unauthorized children away from their parents, who are then detained. Such measures have reduced the birthrate in some regions of Xinjiang more than 60 percent in three years."
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/china-ai-surveillance/614197/
^ That's not a bad article by Ross Andersen in the Atlantic.
Among other things, it tells you what "AI" is really about. Which isn't putting luvvies out of work.
See also the use of "AI" on the West Bank.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/05/israel-opt-israeli-authorities-are-using-facial-recognition-technology-to-entrench-apartheid/
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
What else could he do? Increase council tax in the SE alone?
> Jean Charest of Quebec, only member of PM Kim Campbell's cabinet to survive; he'd lost the PC leadership election to succeed "Lyin' Brian" Mulroney to KC who was BM's hand-picked successor/fall girl; Charest subsequently switched to provincial politics as leader of Quebec Liberal Party and served as premier; and
> Elsie Wayne of New Brunswick, who was NOT an incumbent, but rather the popular mayor of Saint John NB (not to be confused with St. John's NL)
So suggest that scenario with TWO front-line UK Tories surviving similar melt-down, is perhaps a bridge too far; at least one would probably be a nationally-unknown local hero like EW.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Charest
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsie_Wayne
SSI - Maybe most interesting, if hardly (ahem) uplifting (ahem) thing about EW's wiki bio, is statement that she "opposed Viagra for war veterans".
Ideally, whatever they come up with would disproportionately hit urban lefties & blue wallers whilst leaving the Susan Hall-esque strivers alone. A levy on public transport might do it...
Regarding the Weisselberg matter: he was never charged because he was given immunity by Barr’s DOJ to testify against Cohen. Pretty neat trick to shut him up in this case.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1790401976217301196
Tony Blair was last UKPM to cut any ice with Americans, at first with progressive moderates, then with conservative hawks.
Even Boris Johnson is mostly unknown on this side of the Atlantic (or the Pacific) in part because many who are aware of his existence, think (for some reason) he's just a rather lame Benny Hill tribute act.
Both made it out alive."
Political point: One advantage American presidents have over your prime ministers is that they get to give out the medals for such actions.
And good for that off-duty police officer who also received the King’s Gallantry Medal .
Take North Devon - Lib Dems are projected to just miss out as the Labour vote more than doubles to 21%. Labour got 7% of the vote and no councillors only last year - they just aren't a presence.
I'm not especially bullish on the Lib Dems for the election, and the Tories have an okay chance of holding North Devon. But, if they do, they'll have to do it without relying on Labour implausibly getting 21%.
Does that mean that because it's not an apartheid state it's perfect, no, there's systemic discrimination against non-Jewish citizens, the immigration process, housing policy and education systems are discriminatory.
What Israel is doing in the West Bank and Gaza is almost without parallel. There's a military occupation but with the movement of the occupying force's civilian population to settle some areas of the occupied territory but without annexation. It's similar to China annexing Tibet or Morocco annexing Western Sahara but wanting to keep the existing occupied population as non-citizens. It doesn't seem sustainable, but I've thought that since before Oslo so what do I know?
What Tory PMs had in 2022 that Sunak doesn't in 2024 is time - they had a couple of years, whereas he has about six months. As you move into injury time, the odds on the team that is in fact winning being the winner at full time shorten. Not particularly because they've improved or their opponent has got worse - it's just that the time in which things can turn around is much more limited.
The horse has bolted.
And none of you can ever prove me wrong, so there.
It will be as awkward as Theresa May.
So it is quite possible that more stalwart Tories will stay at home than the other parties.
Their quite specific problem is that a particular demographic may behave quite differently in objectively similar seats based on perceived and historical strength of different parties.
Oct 5.2
Nov 1.91
Dec 5.4
Click on "more"
Click on "Transcript"
I still think January’s the date though. On the grounds that Something will Turn Up!
Even fairly cheap sex would be tempting.
The area of historic Mandatory Palestine, now Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, functions in many respects as a single entity. Power, water, telecoms (Israeli Ministry of Communications has control over the cellular communications and technology Palestinians may build, which has been limited to 2G) are all essentially those of a single polity. The West Bank and Gaza, to my mind, resemble Bantustans, or the way Native American reservations used to be (but are not now) run within that polity. They are basically reservations for Palestinians, the residents of which have no recognised citizenship. That's where I see the parallel with Apartheid South Africa, not the treatment of Israeli-Arabs, which is a separate matter.
Many SW Liberal voters used to be very, very eurosceptic.
I remember campaigning in 2017 and 2019 and changing house after house from Lib Dem to Tory VIs.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24319964.expert-debunks-rishi-sunak-branding-yessers-extremist/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=140524