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Starmer is the most popular politician in Britain – politicalbetting.com
Starmer is the most popular politician in Britain – politicalbetting.com
Keir Starmer is the most popular politician in Britain* pic.twitter.com/QqhFHgWA0d
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This certainly isn't 1997 and he's not being swept into Downing St on a wave of goodwill like Blair was. There will be no years-long honeymoon and I think he'll be a very unpopular Prime Minister within a couple of years, personally.
Sky News understands polling station staff were forced to turn the former prime minister away after he initially failed to comply with legislation he introduced while he was in Downing Street.
The latest is the watering down of workers rights, including zero hours contracts, which I believe is the correct thing to do
He leaves me unimpressed and I do not expect he will take the difficult decision needed such as abolished the triple lock or accepting retirement age rises to over 70
And the biggest of all is the lack of any policy on social care which is fundamental to addressing the issues with the NHS
Notwithstanding, the conservatives, like the SNP, need to go into opposition and decide where their future lies and let Starmer and labour come under the intense 24/7 media scrutiny that is now the way of politics
The added bonus of seeing politicians publicly get complacent then be pipped at the post, or panic only to come home comfortably in the end.
Start with an immediate 7am download of postal ballots to get the ball rolling.
I see plenty think Starmer will swiftly plumb Sunakian levels of unpopularity once elected. Perhaps even Trussite or Johnsonian marks of unfavourability or it may just be because @isam doesn't like him.
MY feeling is after the election and presuming Starmer wins big, the vast majority will switch off from politics and just let him get on with it. There are plenty on the Conservative side who said in 1997 people would soon see through "phoney Tony" and the Conservatives would be back - didn't quite work out like that, did it?
I think Starmer will be a decent Prime Minister certainly by contrast with the no-marks of the last 15 years. He's no Blair and he's no Thatcher of course but that won't stop him doing a decent job and his most serious issues are likely to be internal Labour discipline but if he wins big and takes Labour back to power he'll be afforded plenty of slack.
The blind folks aren't going to install street lights, are they?
In terms of the header, Labour will be content that the four most 'liked' politicians belong to them.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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6m
For now all is calm. But remember, in three hours time everyone is going to be on here screaming about Rallings and Thrasher…
Looking at the SKS hate on here while remembering the tumescent enthusiasm for Liz “surprise on the upside” Truss barely 2 years ago is instructive.
A good benchmark for outperforming expectations or not.
Not that 450 losses can be hailed as a triumph.
For example, there's little doubt burying Corbynism as sharply as he has, has been a net positive for Starmer, but it has annoyed a significant tranche of people who now think he's awful.
Political leadership now may not be about being incredibly popular with a huge number of people but with the right people.
There maybe a parallel with Boris post-Brexit and pre-Partygate - who was unpopular in historical terms but had two things going for him that won him a healthy majority.
Firstly, he was up against the even more unpopular Corbyn, secondly, he tended to be most popular with exactly the non-university educated older males who the Tories knew were open to switching votes. Meanwhile, those who loathed him were either never voting Tory or hated Corbyn more.
Starmer may manage a similar trick in reverse by being appealing most to the kind of not very political middle-class, middle-aged dads and mums who used to split Tory as Labour were 'risky' but now have just stopped voting Tory after the past decade of dramas and stuck or falling living standards.
Everyone else thought she was as mad a box of frogs and saw the iceberg looming a mile off 😂
https://x.com/bidenhq/status/1785759162783224174
Trump: Look at Paris. Look at London. They're no longer recognizable. I'm going to get myself into a lot of trouble, but you know what? That's the fact, they are no longer recognizable. We can't let that happen here
I suppose that could happen a bit, if Reform walk off the field of play, but it seems unlikely. We all know who Rishi is, and most of us don't like him or his party much.
"Sky News understands polling station staff were forced to turn the former prime minister away after he initially failed to comply with legislation he introduced while he was in Downing Street.
Mr Johnson, who introduced the Elections Act requiring photo ID in 2022, was attempting to cast his ballot in South Oxfordshire, where a police and crime commissioner for the Thames Valley is being selected."
Made my day.
Starmer will have a much harder job in a much more dangerous and unpredictable world.
Just a hunch.
Not for lack of trying, my postal vote (which I usually deliver in person) got lost in all my travels
For the record I would have voted against the awful Khan, dunno who for tho. Possibly binface
The Tories tend to do better earlier in the day given they’re now so reliant on pensioners.
We were elected with no ambition. We will govern with no ambition.
Trying to deny it will make Dems looks stupid. Don't do it
Did the lazy fckr return with appropriate ID?
The NI reductions funded by income tax allowance freezes.
The Northern Ireland political administration and trade solution.
The level of financial help for energy bills.
Agreeing the last round of public sector pay claims.
The change to migrants minimum earnings.
493 would be more than half the contested seats they currently hold.
657 would be more than two thirds.
It's revealing that much more attention is on how many seats the Tories will lose than how many Labour will win.
This feels like the turnout equivalent of the various types of "going" at racecourses.
Question is, will they return for the General Election?
Turn again, Whittington!
Secondly, the most recent Tory purge was of the centre, not the extreme. Gauke and co. This sad once great party is trying to win from two distinct articulations, populist grunting, and Hunt style poor man's Ken Clarke. Neither is done well.
Neither party has an articulate programme; conditions are such that a realistic manifesto is not possible if you want to keep the voter onside.
But Labour only have to be positioned as fairly safe; the Tories can't do this. They have been in power since 2010 and safe we are not.
The amount of support was about right in helping people generally, helping the vulnerable more and also encouraging energy efficiency.
Now doubtless I'm in a minority but the changes to my energy usage I've made will allow permanent improved energy efficiency and overall cost savings.
you are underestimating the polling potential to dramatically change once starting gun fired - for obvious elephant in room you won’t acknowledge. We are getting misled by a diet of smorgasbord polling, we need more forced choice polling taken at same time. I think it’s only Delta who does it.
The polling what matters to whole electorate, showing Labour ahead on all measures, bin it. For recovery to 34% Tories will focus on what matters to voters still leaning to them - it doesn’t matter a jot for every extra badger shot, 68% want Tories out even more, if Cons move from 24% to 32% and beyond targetting swingback. Tories have shipped about 10% to Reform in only 18 months, these are clearly softish votes. What do these recent reform voters, and those 2019 Tory Don’t Knows often in Mikes and TSE headers, need to hear during a campaign to be tempted back?
Yes. how polls moved in 2017 and 2019 in campaign. Who saw it coming? Every GE becomes a “forced choice” because support for minor parties like Reforms manifesto of unicorns, comes under pressure. One candidate wins FPTP in large constituency’s, this usually reduces voter option to 2 candidates who can win the seat. Conservative or Starmer, or waste your vote nearly everywhere - love it or hate it, you can’t deny FPTP does do this. And Voters know how painful letting in a horrible government and PM they get stuck with for 5 years, most will use their vote wisely not chuck it away. When I see this smorgasbord polling “choose your preferred unicorn” I shout at the screen: that mountain of deliberately wasted votes just won’t happen! It never does in a UK GE, so why now?
Only “Forced choice” polling from now gives us more realistic GE prediction. last forced choice poll I noted was by Delta in March, Lab just 11 points ahead 42% to 31%. Tories already polling in 30’s before start of campaigning, before two party emphasis and squeezing others gets serious.If forced choice polls taken exactly same time as normal one is completely different, and all have Tories in the 30+%, you will instantly see I’m right, too much full options polling like todays Yougov is misleading us.
Achieving the change around I’m forecasting Lab 39 Con 33 as early as 4th of July 2024, Tories are ignoring 68% voters - that’s elephant in room you won’t acknowledge.
you have to factor in how Tories and and the media will behave during the election - for the party who has given us one of the most corrupt governments clearly loves to set the police on opponents to investigate next to nothing. If you think Kinnock had a hard time in 1992, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Tories - outright power in the land last 14 years - hand in hand with their client media, even tried to stitch Ed Davey up with the entire post office scandal!
It’s a perfect thread header to debate this underneath.
Protests are bound to spread and be stepped up if the Israeli army assaults Rafah as seems likely.
Never seen our polling station so quiet, but just PCC here and that is so pointless that I barely bothered myself. Just did my best to reduce the Tory NEV.
My impression from living in London is the number of areas with a bad reputation has steadily declined. Gentrification and development has expanded the number of areas desirable to one age group or another.
The ethnic composition is not remarked upon by Londoners who actually spend most their time in London.
If you knew anything about social psychology, you'd know that good Samaritanism can spread fast once the first person does some. Doesn't apply much to pickpocketing.
I got an email from one of the universities I'm an alumnus of telling me about the tent protest there. This is clearly expected to spread.
And hopefully none of the New Towns shite.
You waited fourteen years, you selfish git