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All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,722
edited May 12 in General
imageAll the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand – politicalbetting.com

?EXCLUSIVE: Alex Salmond today tells Humza Yousaf that to continue as Scottish first minister he must agree an electoral pact which would see the SNP step aside in some Holyrood seats ?? https://t.co/XHIwWS133O

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,924
    First
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    ydoethur said:

    He should have ruled it out hereafter.
    There would have been time for such a word
    Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
    He, as 'tis thought, by self and violent hands
    Took off his political career.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle Macbeth reference.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,100
    The mask comes off very quickly with Sunak .

    The SKY News interview highlights how awful he is when challenged .
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,924
    edited April 28
    All the heatwaves of Arabia won’t repair the frost damage on my recently budburst vines



    Fortunately it’s not all like that. Some vines just mildly frost-burnt.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541
    edited April 28

    ydoethur said:

    He should have ruled it out hereafter.
    There would have been time for such a word
    Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
    He, as 'tis thought, by self and violent hands
    Took off his political career.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle Macbeth reference.
    At the moment, the challenge would be not to see them.

    But that can never be.
    Who can impress the forest, bid the tree unfix his earth-bound root?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541
    TimS said:

    All the heatwaves of Arabia won’t repair the frost damage on my recently budburst vines



    Fortunately it’s not all like that. Some vines just mildly frost-burnt.

    Ouch. Sympathies.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,404
    edited April 28
    nico679 said:

    The mask comes off very quickly with Sunak .

    The SKY News interview highlights how awful he is when challenged .

    They should change the slogan to "Divert the boats to Ireland"

    Will Sunak ever answer a question?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207
    edited April 28
    that went well
  • Options
    'A second policy announcement was expected on Sunday but BBC News has been told that this will not now happen, an indication that his survival strategy is already in danger of being blown off course./

    *Birnam Wood advances an inch further to Dunsinane*
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,100

    nico679 said:

    The mask comes off very quickly with Sunak .

    The SKY News interview highlights how awful he is when challenged .

    They should change the slogan to "Divert the boats to Ireland"

    Will Sunak ever answer a question?
    Just imagine Sunak on the campaign trail and in debates!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. 679, if the Yorkshire Question Time is held during the General Election I suspect Sunak might find himself thoroughly eviscerated by the public.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    He should have ruled it out hereafter.
    There would have been time for such a word
    Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
    He, as 'tis thought, by self and violent hands
    Took off his political career.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle Macbeth reference.
    At the moment, the challenge would be not to see them.

    But that can never be.
    Who can impress the forest, bid the tree unfix his earth-bound root?
    He’s saving “no man of woman born” for the next trans thread.
    Transition from one first Minister to another?
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,376
    Morning all!

    I had very good sleep last night and woke up early and ready to go. I've already walked over 10km, the sun's come out and I'm smiling

    I dozed off yesterday thinking about @Leon 's question about boredom

    I found a good part of the answer under a bridge this morning


  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,924
    edited April 28
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    He should have ruled it out hereafter.
    There would have been time for such a word
    Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
    He, as 'tis thought, by self and violent hands
    Took off his political career.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle Macbeth reference.
    At the moment, the challenge would be not to see them.

    But that can never be.
    Who can impress the forest, bid the tree unfix his earth-bound root?
    He’s saving “no man of woman born” for the next trans thread.
    Transition from one first Minister to another?
    Yousaf from his post untimely ripped.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    He should have ruled it out hereafter.
    There would have been time for such a word
    Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
    He, as 'tis thought, by self and violent hands
    Took off his political career.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle Macbeth reference.
    At the moment, the challenge would be not to see them.

    But that can never be.
    Who can impress the forest, bid the tree unfix his earth-bound root?
    He’s saving “no man of woman born” for the next trans thread.
    Transition from one first Minister to another?
    Yousaf from his post untimely ripped.
    I think his first ministership isn't so much a Caesar as a self-inflicted abortion.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,982
    TimS said:

    All the heatwaves of Arabia won’t repair the frost damage on my recently budburst vines



    Fortunately it’s not all like that. Some vines just mildly frost-burnt.

    Jeez - sorry to see that! Hope we get the 'just right' weather for the rest of the year!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    Ever since his admission of multiple acts of - ahem - questionable propriety with various women.

    Phrased carefully because he was after all acquitted of any *criminal* acts.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,661
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    He should have ruled it out hereafter.
    There would have been time for such a word
    Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow...
    He, as 'tis thought, by self and violent hands
    Took off his political career.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle Macbeth reference.
    At the moment, the challenge would be not to see them.

    But that can never be.
    Who can impress the forest, bid the tree unfix his earth-bound root?
    He’s saving “no man of woman born” for the next trans thread.
    Transition from one first Minister to another?
    Yousaf from his post untimely ripped.
    I think his first ministership isn't so much a Caesar as a self-inflicted abortion.
    Which self are you thinking of?

    Yousaf reminds me of Jim Hacker. Not ill-meaning, but not there because anyone really thought he was up to the job.

    It's just that one of his rivals for the leadership would split the party within a month.

    And the other within a week.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,681

    nico679 said:

    The mask comes off very quickly with Sunak .

    The SKY News interview highlights how awful he is when challenged .

    They should change the slogan to "Divert the boats to Ireland"

    Will Sunak ever answer a question?
    It does not help that Rishi almost certainly has no faith in his own policy but has been lumbered with it by CCHQ as the HIMARS of the woke culture war, and because U-turns are considered weak.
  • Options
    Given that 'Deeds Not Words' is the watchword of the day. I have a sneek preview of the latest Con election poster

    https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/114884234054

    Well - what could go wrong?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918

    nico679 said:

    The mask comes off very quickly with Sunak .

    The SKY News interview highlights how awful he is when challenged .

    They should change the slogan to "Divert the boats to Ireland"

    Will Sunak ever answer a question?
    It does not help that Rishi almost certainly has no faith in his own policy but has been lumbered with it by CCHQ as the HIMARS of the woke culture war, and because U-turns are considered weak.
    Although Sunak's premiership has had more u-turns than a 10,000m race, so you'd think he'd be inured to them now.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    Just updated the thread with this.

    Labour politicians already tweeting this image. Sums up Humza Yousaf’s problem.



    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1784493110518571478/photo/1
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    Sure, but his successors in the SNP leadership are being revealed as ethically challenged as well.

    Now maybe Sturgeon and Yusuf will became the Aaronson and Rutherford of the SNP but I don't get that impression yet.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,574
    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,958
    If we wind up with a sudden Scottish General Election, how soon would it happen?

    If it were to be before the Westminster GE it could be very interesting indeed. Its hard to imagine a swing to the SNP, but a Unionist Lab led government supported by the Scottish Tories would put a cat amongst the pigeons.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    Sure, but his successors in the SNP leadership are being revealed as ethically challenged as well.

    Now maybe Sturgeon and Yusuf will became the Aaronson and Rutherford of the SNP but I don't get that impression yet.
    It's like the tipping point with Boris Johnson, once you get in to the sexual misconduct and the covering up therein that's when you're buggered with the voters.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    No angel and Putinista - sounds like he should have had a broad choice of parties rather than needing to set up his own.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    Sure, but his successors in the SNP leadership are being revealed as ethically challenged as well.

    Now maybe Sturgeon and Yusuf will became the Aaronson and Rutherford of the SNP but I don't get that impression yet.
    It's like the tipping point with Boris Johnson, once you get in to the sexual misconduct and the covering up therein that's when you're buggered with the voters.
    If only the same rule applied to Trump.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    Sure, but his successors in the SNP leadership are being revealed as ethically challenged as well.

    Now maybe Sturgeon and Yusuf will became the Aaronson and Rutherford of the SNP but I don't get that impression yet.
    Unkind. Humza Yousaf may be an idiot, but he's also the only SNP leader of the last 20 years not to have been arrested as part of a criminal investigation.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541
    Foxy said:

    If we wind up with a sudden Scottish General Election, how soon would it happen?

    If it were to be before the Westminster GE it could be very interesting indeed. Its hard to imagine a swing to the SNP, but a Unionist Lab led government supported by the Scottish Tories would put a cat amongst the pigeons.

    Didn't seem to hurt Salmond.

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918
    edited April 28
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    Sure, but his successors in the SNP leadership are being revealed as ethically challenged as well.

    Now maybe Sturgeon and Yusuf will became the Aaronson and Rutherford of the SNP but I don't get that impression yet.
    It's like the tipping point with Boris Johnson, once you get in to the sexual misconduct and the covering up therein that's when you're buggered with the voters.
    If only the same rule applied to Trump.
    The Supreme Court has already made it clear they do not think any rules apply to Trump.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893
    TimS said:

    All the heatwaves of Arabia won’t repair the frost damage on my recently budburst vines



    Fortunately it’s not all like that. Some vines just mildly frost-burnt.

    That is poor quality whining.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    ydoethur said:

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    He admitted he was no angel when it came to his behaviour so even with the acquittal of the charges the court of public have made their judgment.

    His pimping for Russia on Russia Today didn't help either.
    Sure, but his successors in the SNP leadership are being revealed as ethically challenged as well.

    Now maybe Sturgeon and Yusuf will became the Aaronson and Rutherford of the SNP but I don't get that impression yet.
    Unkind. Humza Yousaf may be an idiot, but he's also the only SNP leader of the last 20 years not to have been arrested as part of a criminal investigation.
    So far.

    Anyway his brother in law taints by association.

    Even if unfair.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,924
    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541

    “The 2024 election is in full swing and yes, age is an issue,” noted Biden, 81. “I’m a grown man running against a six-year-old.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/28/stormy-weather-biden-skewers-trump-at-white-house-correspondents-dinner

    That is seriously harsh on six year olds.

    Most of them are at least potty trained.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,451
    Good morning

    Streeting really struggling to justify the triple lock on Sky
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,958
    edited April 28
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:


    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


    To me spending targets of 2.5% on defence or 0.7% on Aid are wrongly set.

    Sure our depleted armed forces have been run down badly by the current government, and are lumbered with multiple white elephant projects, so I am open to spending more on them. It should be directed though at what threats we face and what equipment and personnel we need in order to counter those threats, not some number plucked from the air.

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:


    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


    To me spending targets of 2.5% on defence or 0.7% on Aid are wrongly set.

    Sure our depleted armed forces have been run down badly by the current government, and are lumbered with multiple white elephant projects, so I am open to spending more on them. It should be directed though at what threats we face and what equipment and personnel we need in order to counter those threats, not some number plucked from the air.

    The numbers aren't plucked from the air but carefully chosen to allow self-righteous virility boasting against other parties or countries.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,924

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    There are, it seems, rather a lot of people desperate for it to work who will take any old anecdotes over data if it suits their agenda.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,958

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    There is evidence that it doesn't work. Australia discontinued their offshore policy when it failed to stop the boats and switched to an immediate return to the departure point, which did work.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/28/for-migrants-deterrence-doesnt-deter-cruelty-not-compassion-rishi-sunak

  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893
    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    It is a nonsense policy but 68% support it vs 11% want to scrap it.

    https://yougov.co.uk/economy/articles/37456-britons-wouldnt-ditch-pensions-triple-lock-rule

    I suspect the only way around it is going to be some technical shenanigans to loosen the criteria but keep the words.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,100
    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Just checked, last April was colder than this April so far here in north Dorset (8.9C mean versus 9.3C).

    I was really surprised by that as it's felt cold and miserable all month.

    I'm guessing we'll have a hot dry summer now.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,979
    edited April 28
    Maggie Holland used the title of the header in a folk song about the Gulf War. Here’s a version of that song: https://valvemusic.bandcamp.com/track/perfumes-of-arabia
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,568

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Just checked, last April was colder than this April so far here in north Dorset (8.9C mean versus 9.3C).

    I was really surprised by that as it's felt cold and miserable all month.

    I'm guessing we'll have a hot dry summer now.
    My seed potato are coming up. The early ones - Ratte - are looking very bushy so far. One advantage of today's biblical rain is it is good for the potatoes.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,251

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
    Property of itself does not generate an income so taxes on domestic property either have to come out of people's income or savings or when property is transferred eg on sale or death. Property which is let is already taxed as income.

    So how exactly is domestic property to be taxed? This is a genuine question BTW.

    There is a lot of nominal wealth tied up in property but it is realisable on sale. So isn't that the obvious occasion on which to levy it? When the seller actually has the cash and the actual value is recorded and known to the government?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,924

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Just checked, last April was colder than this April so far here in north Dorset (8.9C mean versus 9.3C).

    I was really surprised by that as it's felt cold and miserable all month.

    I'm guessing we'll have a hot dry summer now.
    First half of April was record breakingly warm. Hence the fruit trees coming out early then being zapped. A month of two halves.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,759
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


    It is noticeable that no one articulates what is needed. Just money. Just as for the NHS.

    One reason that there is distrust of tax-and-spend policies is that many see politicians believing that “tax and throw the money over the wall” is the way to go.

    What we need is an articulation of what we are trying to do.

    Then a sliding scale of costed spending plans that actually might achieve various gradation of results. Then select one based on cost and affordability.

    Then use modern, scientific management combined with investment in operations and productivity to carry out the picked plan.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918
    edited April 28

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
    I accept that 'more tax on other people' is probably a very common view, although I think increasingly people realise they will probably need to pay more taxes. I have never pretended that I am not in the target for paying more.

    Taxes on property, yes. But extending NI to all income, or more sensibly replacing NI with ICT to give the same effect is the way to go.

    By all means keep the triple lock but ensure pensioners (like me) and those living off investments rather than actually working for a living pay the same overall rates on their income as the working population.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    It is a nonsense policy but 68% support it vs 11% want to scrap it.

    https://yougov.co.uk/economy/articles/37456-britons-wouldnt-ditch-pensions-triple-lock-rule

    I suspect the only way around it is going to be some technical shenanigans to loosen the criteria but keep the words.
    Its effect can continue to be nullified by freezing personal tax allowances and reducing national insurance.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,251
    edited April 28
    This story is utterly shocking. Of a piece, sadly and shamefully, with how the British state treats victims of its misconduct.

    "A British Army veteran of 13 years and victim of the Windrush Scandal has died in Jamaica after being left destitute and humiliated by the UK government.

    When Anthony Williams despaired with the UK in 2022, he told the Guardian that the Tory government was “just stringing us along until people lose interest, and we die out.
    ”"
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,451
    edited April 28
    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,120

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Traditionally potatoes should be planted on Good Friday, which was in March of course, but quite late. Did you plant them too early?

    Our blue-tit is sitting on eleven eggs……. laid at about the normal time.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918
    TimS said:

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Just checked, last April was colder than this April so far here in north Dorset (8.9C mean versus 9.3C).

    I was really surprised by that as it's felt cold and miserable all month.

    I'm guessing we'll have a hot dry summer now.
    First half of April was record breakingly warm. Hence the fruit trees coming out early then being zapped. A month of two halves.
    We've been luckier here, a few slight ground frosts, not enough to disturb our ancient apple tree which is currently still covered in blossom. The lemon tree has been out since early April and showing no signs of damage.

    OTOH the asparagus is very sluggish - hoping it will speed up in May.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,064
    Cyclefree said:

    This story is utterly shocking. Of a piece, sadly and shamefully, with how the British state treats victims of its misconduct.

    "A British Army veteran of 13 years and victim of the Windrush Scandal has died in Jamaica after being left destitute and humiliated by the UK government.

    When Anthony Williams despaired with the UK in 2022, he told the Guardian that the Tory government was “just stringing us along until people lose interest, and we die out.
    ”"

    Consider this contemporary document. And what its header says, in big, bold, underlined, capitalised, text.

    https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/the-empire-windrush/empire-windrush-the-notting-hill-carnival/source-1-passenger-list-of-the-empire-windrush/
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,120

    TimS said:

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Just checked, last April was colder than this April so far here in north Dorset (8.9C mean versus 9.3C).

    I was really surprised by that as it's felt cold and miserable all month.

    I'm guessing we'll have a hot dry summer now.
    First half of April was record breakingly warm. Hence the fruit trees coming out early then being zapped. A month of two halves.
    We've been luckier here, a few slight ground frosts, not enough to disturb our ancient apple tree which is currently still covered in blossom. The lemon tree has been out since early April and showing no signs of damage.

    OTOH the asparagus is very sluggish - hoping it will speed up in May.
    Had some fresh asparagus from the local farm yesterday; not very plump and tasty.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,759
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:


    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


    To me spending targets of 2.5% on defence or 0.7% on Aid are wrongly set.

    Sure our depleted armed forces have been run down badly by the current government, and are lumbered with multiple white elephant projects, so I am open to spending more on them. It should be directed though at what threats we face and what equipment and personnel we need in order to counter those threats, not some number plucked from the air.

    The rational approach would be to cut out various programs where multiple existing replacements can be ordered off the shelf.

    Ajax can be replaced by any number of APCs that exist right now. Any order would be substantial enough to get a shiny new factory included. Same for tanks. Same for artillery.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,100

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
    There won’t be any change to the triple lock unless all the parties agreed to that . Your position as a pensioner is nice to see but it’s now become a political football . If Labour ditched the triple lock they would suffer at the polls and just couldn’t risk it .
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,541
    Cyclefree said:

    This story is utterly shocking. Of a piece, sadly and shamefully, with how the British state treats victims of its misconduct.

    "A British Army veteran of 13 years and victim of the Windrush Scandal has died in Jamaica after being left destitute and humiliated by the UK government.

    When Anthony Williams despaired with the UK in 2022, he told the Guardian that the Tory government was “just stringing us along until people lose interest, and we die out.
    ”"

    Doesn't even have to be the British state. Most large organisations do something similar.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,568
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
    There won’t be any change to the triple lock unless all the parties agreed to that . Your position as a pensioner is nice to see but it’s now become a political football . If Labour ditched the triple lock they would suffer at the polls and just couldn’t risk it .
    "the need for social care which parties are in denial"

    Yes. Amen to that.

    It is the biggest failure of the entire political class in a very long time.

    No one has the cojones to grab this issue and deal with it; so it festers on - dragging the NHS down with it and subjecting tens of thousands of families to terrible stress and worry and far worse.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,120
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
    There won’t be any change to the triple lock unless all the parties agreed to that . Your position as a pensioner is nice to see but it’s now become a political football . If Labour ditched the triple lock they would suffer at the polls and just couldn’t risk it .
    As a pensioner in a similar position to Big G I would just point out that the income tax I pay on my sundry pensions has increased.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


    It is noticeable that no one articulates what is needed. Just money. Just as for the NHS.

    One reason that there is distrust of tax-and-spend policies is that many see politicians believing that “tax and throw the money over the wall” is the way to go.

    What we need is an articulation of what we are trying to do.

    Then a sliding scale of costed spending plans that actually might achieve various gradation of results. Then select one based on cost and affordability.

    Then use modern, scientific management combined with investment in operations and productivity to carry out the picked plan.
    Yes, I agree with that. In the same way, Labour made a mistake in pledging £28 billion to fight climate change - it's not that it had to be reduced to £14 billion that's the problem - people understand that things are tight - but that it led with the money rather than what we would do with it. "We will do X and it will cost Y, paid for by Z" is the way to go.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,918
    edited April 28

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Interesting point (the latter one - I don't think anyone is 'truly terrified that it could work').

    What your second sentence says, if true, which I suspect it might well be, is that Sunak has staked the future existence of the Conservative party on the idea that potential boat people both know about the Rwanda scheme and will be deterred by a <1% chance of ending up there.

    Remember these are people who are largely 'informed' by people smugglers and are willing to risk a small boat crossing of the channel for the chance to live in black economy Britain.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,443

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Nobody is terrified that it could work. Nobody looking at it - including the Home Office machine who will run it - think it will work. With evidence.

    So on one side we have Tory hopium. And on the other side, reality.

    Until the Tories accept that reality is reality, they will lose.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
    Property of itself does not generate an income so taxes on domestic property either have to come out of people's income or savings or when property is transferred eg on sale or death. Property which is let is already taxed as income.

    So how exactly is domestic property to be taxed? This is a genuine question BTW.

    There is a lot of nominal wealth tied up in property but it is realisable on sale. So isn't that the obvious occasion on which to levy it? When the seller actually has the cash and the actual value is recorded and known to the government?
    Extra tax on property can be levied in various ways:

    Council tax - especially if more bands are added at the top end
    Stamp duty on sales
    Inheritance tax
    Capital gains tax on multiple ownership

    The different ways allow the extra burden to be spread as desired.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,877
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
    Property of itself does not generate an income so taxes on domestic property either have to come out of people's income or savings or when property is transferred eg on sale or death. Property which is let is already taxed as income.

    So how exactly is domestic property to be taxed? This is a genuine question BTW.
    Remove the CGT exemption on "own home" sales.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,850
    edited April 28
    Good morning everyone.

    A very good interview by Nancy Pelosi with Laura Kuenssberg, this morning.

    Putting the repeated Trump talking points firmly back in their box.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,084

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
    Property of itself does not generate an income so taxes on domestic property either have to come out of people's income or savings or when property is transferred eg on sale or death. Property which is let is already taxed as income.

    So how exactly is domestic property to be taxed? This is a genuine question BTW.
    Remove the CGT exemption on "own home" sales.
    that would make it even less likely people would ever move and I don't think I've seen a model where the idea works.

    In fact I don't think there is any country in the world that treats people's home as a typical asset when it's bought and sold...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,028
    Mr. Richard, additional inheritance tax on houses would be courageous, in the Yes, Minister sense.

    "Can't afford a house? Now you can't afford to inherit one! Oh, you were living with your parents anyway? Guess you're evicted. We're very sorry for your loss."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c72plr8v94xo

    "In 1997, the most common living arrangement for an adult aged between 18 and 34 was being in a couple with children, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank. Now, it is living with your parents."
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,958

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:


    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more.


    To me spending targets of 2.5% on defence or 0.7% on Aid are wrongly set.

    Sure our depleted armed forces have been run down badly by the current government, and are lumbered with multiple white elephant projects, so I am open to spending more on them. It should be directed though at what threats we face and what equipment and personnel we need in order to counter those threats, not some number plucked from the air.

    The rational approach would be to cut out various programs where multiple existing replacements can be ordered off the shelf.

    Ajax can be replaced by any number of APCs that exist right now. Any order would be substantial enough to get a shiny new factory included. Same for tanks. Same for artillery.
    The other procurement issue is how state of the art we need to be. It not like we will be fighting the USA. More likely low tech guerrillas or states with obsolete Russian equipment.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Nobody is terrified that it could work. Nobody looking at it - including the Home Office machine who will run it - think it will work. With evidence.

    So on one side we have Tory hopium. And on the other side, reality.

    Until the Tories accept that reality is reality, they will lose.
    Come on, admit it RP, every morning you break out into cold sweats with fear that the brilliant Rwanda scheme is going to stop refugees reaching our shores, and if that happened how would you possibly cope.

    It is ok and perfectly understandable to be terrified of such an event, no need for the fake bravado.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,084

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
    There won’t be any change to the triple lock unless all the parties agreed to that . Your position as a pensioner is nice to see but it’s now become a political football . If Labour ditched the triple lock they would suffer at the polls and just couldn’t risk it .
    As a pensioner in a similar position to Big G I would just point out that the income tax I pay on my sundry pensions has increased.
    not strictly right - your pension has gone up (possibly in line with inflation) but the tax allowance remained the same so all your pension increase is subject to 20% tax....

    Fiscal drag is simply increasing the tax pensioners pay and dragging more and more (poorer) pensioners back into income tax.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,958

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Nobody is terrified that it could work. Nobody looking at it - including the Home Office machine who will run it - think it will work. With evidence.

    So on one side we have Tory hopium. And on the other side, reality.

    Until the Tories accept that reality is reality, they will lose.
    Sunak betting the farm on a 100/1 shot looks like he needs some lessons in numeracy.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,919
    Morning all :)

    I find it strange how the peddled notion of "big party being in the pocket of smaller party" doesn't either represent the truth or work out well electorally for said smaller party.

    Whatever the merits or otherwise of any electoral system, the truth seems to be parties trying to punch far above their electoral weight tend to get dragged back to earth in time.

    I'd also point out the longer a party stays in power and the more it thinks it has a semi-divine right to perpetual governance, the more rapid and sudden the descent to irrelevance.

    One might almost surmise the electorate themselves create the balance required within democratic systems even if the system is gerrymandered to try to create perpetual one party governance (not saying that happens in the UK but it does happen in so-called democracies elesewhere).
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,661

    TimS said:

    I planted my seed potatoes in March.

    It's now nearly May. And they still haven't come up.

    Just checked, last April was colder than this April so far here in north Dorset (8.9C mean versus 9.3C).

    I was really surprised by that as it's felt cold and miserable all month.

    I'm guessing we'll have a hot dry summer now.
    First half of April was record breakingly warm. Hence the fruit trees coming out early then being zapped. A month of two halves.
    We've been luckier here, a few slight ground frosts, not enough to disturb our ancient apple tree which is currently still covered in blossom. The lemon tree has been out since early April and showing no signs of damage.

    OTOH the asparagus is very sluggish - hoping it will speed up in May.
    That's the word for this spring - Sluggish. Very grey (apart from that Fool's Spring weekend), so never very cold but rarely interestingly warm. The lack of cold pushes the averages up but probably doesn't do much for the amount of time that plants can be bothered to grow in.

    I might- just about, at last, have some tomato seedlings coming up.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,443
    Watching the Rishi interview. Well, Rishi rant.

    Rishi Sunak = Ed Milliband. Its that bad.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911

    Watching the Rishi interview. Well, Rishi rant.

    Rishi Sunak = Ed Milliband. Its that bad.

    You and me both voted for EICIPM though
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Nobody is terrified that it could work. Nobody looking at it - including the Home Office machine who will run it - think it will work. With evidence.

    So on one side we have Tory hopium. And on the other side, reality.

    Until the Tories accept that reality is reality, they will lose.
    Come on, admit it RP, every morning you break out into cold sweats with fear that the brilliant Rwanda scheme is going to stop refugees reaching our shores, and if that happened how would you possibly cope.

    It is ok and perfectly understandable to be terrified of such an event, no need for the fake bravado.
    The quickfire defensive posts on the subject by several on here are very revealing.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207
    edited April 28
    2nd and tumbleweed
    ydoethur said:

    When and why did Alex Salmond become so unpopular ?

    I can understand why Unionists never liked him but the way Nationalists have changed their opinion of him seems somewhat Orwellian.

    Ever since his admission of multiple acts of - ahem - questionable propriety with various women.

    Phrased carefully because he was after all acquitted of any *criminal* acts.
    Chickens are coming home to roost , Chief Mammy and her crew will meet him in court again shortly on the topic.

    PS: You are a bit of a prude to fantasise that him admitting having consensual sex with one woman outside marriage was anything like what you allege.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,443
    edited April 28

    Watching the Rishi interview. Well, Rishi rant.

    Rishi Sunak = Ed Milliband. Its that bad.

    You and me both voted for EICIPM though
    I voted wrong when it came to the leadership.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,443

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Nobody is terrified that it could work. Nobody looking at it - including the Home Office machine who will run it - think it will work. With evidence.

    So on one side we have Tory hopium. And on the other side, reality.

    Until the Tories accept that reality is reality, they will lose.
    Come on, admit it RP, every morning you break out into cold sweats with fear that the brilliant Rwanda scheme is going to stop refugees reaching our shores, and if that happened how would you possibly cope.

    It is ok and perfectly understandable to be terrified of such an event, no need for the fake bravado.
    The quickfire defensive posts on the subject by several on here are very revealing.
    lolol - none of us need to defensive about the Rwanda scheme. Our "quickfire defensive posts" are pointing at you squeezing your eyes shut saying you believe in fairies and pointing out that there are no fairies.

    Everyone wants these boats to stop. Perhaps a practical, workable plan to make that happen might be a good idea?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,120
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
    There won’t be any change to the triple lock unless all the parties agreed to that . Your position as a pensioner is nice to see but it’s now become a political football . If Labour ditched the triple lock they would suffer at the polls and just couldn’t risk it .
    As a pensioner in a similar position to Big G I would just point out that the income tax I pay on my sundry pensions has increased.
    not strictly right - your pension has gone up (possibly in line with inflation) but the tax allowance remained the same so all your pension increase is subject to 20% tax....

    Fiscal drag is simply increasing the tax pensioners pay and dragging more and more (poorer) pensioners back into income tax.
    Quite; I was over-simplifying. Mrs C, with a small occupational pension has now returned to being a taxpayer.
    On the plus side she now adds Gift Aid to her charitable donations and membership fees for charities.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,207

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, via already warm and sunny Umbria:

    The collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by a dramatic decline in military spending. The UK, which was consuming 4-5% of its GDP on defence in the final stretch of the confrontation with the USSR, now devotes a smidgeon over 2%. So Rishi Sunak is right – not a phrase I or anyone else writes very often – when he says that the UK needs to become more serious about protecting its security and vital national interests.

    Both the Tory and Labour leaders say that defence spending needs to rise to 2.5% of GDP. Neither offer any guarantees about when this will happen and both are avoiding having a frank conversation with voters about the price of security. Those wanting to see the UK putting more into defence face several challenges. The first is the lack of public enthusiasm for the idea. The public will also need persuading that bucks for bangs will be used wisely. This will be hard because the Ministry of Defence has such an atrocious record of repeated and costly procurement failures.

    It is an exaggeration to say that we will have to choose between being a welfare state and a warfare state. The UK was both during the Cold War. It is true to say that if defence spending is going to rise, something else will have to give. Absent a miraculous surge in growth, the fundamental choice will be either higher taxes (at a time when many voters think they are being taxed quite enough already, thank you) or less in the kitty for public services and social support (at a time when most voters think we need to be spending more on them).

    Mr Sunak probably isn’t losing much sleep over that dilemma, because it is highly unlikely to be his problem for much longer. Sir Keir does have to worry about it, because this will almost certainly be landing in his lap like an unpinned hand grenade. To govern is to choose. To spend more on defence will mean choosing to spend less on things voters currently say they care about more...

    ...or to increase taxes, which is obviously what will happen.
    On other people.

    In reality increasing taxes on property is the only viable source.
    Property of itself does not generate an income so taxes on domestic property either have to come out of people's income or savings or when property is transferred eg on sale or death. Property which is let is already taxed as income.

    So how exactly is domestic property to be taxed? This is a genuine question BTW.
    Remove the CGT exemption on "own home" sales.
    Death Wish.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,154
    eek said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Labour triple lock promise. Inevitable, I think, but will draw the ire of lots of working age commentators.

    I think they've missed an opportunity to do something more creative. They could have promised a one off hike in the pension followed by a return to indexing to wages.

    Pensioners are ruthless when it comes to voting for their own interests . The triple lock polls well even amongst younger people. No party will ditch the triple lock unless there was a cross party decision to do so . The Tories will never agree to that as their pensioner vote is the only thing stopping them from being totally wiped out .
    And this is why changing the occupant in no 10 will not see the real and necessary change to group think

    The triple lock delivery to wealthy pensioners is just wrong and very costly.

    Add in the need for defence spending rising to 2.5%, the need for social care which parties are in denial, the needs for the NHS and education then taxes have to rise including on property
    There won’t be any change to the triple lock unless all the parties agreed to that . Your position as a pensioner is nice to see but it’s now become a political football . If Labour ditched the triple lock they would suffer at the polls and just couldn’t risk it .
    As a pensioner in a similar position to Big G I would just point out that the income tax I pay on my sundry pensions has increased.
    not strictly right - your pension has gone up (possibly in line with inflation) but the tax allowance remained the same so all your pension increase is subject to 20% tax....

    Fiscal drag is simply increasing the tax pensioners pay and dragging more and more (poorer) pensioners back into income tax.
    Freezing tax allowances is the absence of a tax cut rather than a tax increase.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893

    So the Rwanda strategy is already having positive results:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68914399

    There are a lot of people truly terrified that it could work.

    Politically, this is also the difference for Sunak of between 30% and 175+ MPs in the GE and 22% and a wipeout.
    Nobody is terrified that it could work. Nobody looking at it - including the Home Office machine who will run it - think it will work. With evidence.

    So on one side we have Tory hopium. And on the other side, reality.

    Until the Tories accept that reality is reality, they will lose.
    Come on, admit it RP, every morning you break out into cold sweats with fear that the brilliant Rwanda scheme is going to stop refugees reaching our shores, and if that happened how would you possibly cope.

    It is ok and perfectly understandable to be terrified of such an event, no need for the fake bravado.
    The quickfire defensive posts on the subject by several on here are very revealing.
    You are quite correct, we are all absolutely petrified that asylum numbers will fall. I am slightly surprised we manage to think of anything else.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,449
    Cyclefree said:

    This story is utterly shocking. Of a piece, sadly and shamefully, with how the British state treats victims of its misconduct.

    "A British Army veteran of 13 years and victim of the Windrush Scandal has died in Jamaica after being left destitute and humiliated by the UK government.

    When Anthony Williams despaired with the UK in 2022, he told the Guardian that the Tory government was “just stringing us along until people lose interest, and we die out.
    ”"

    All Governments are malign, it's just this Government is weapons grade corrupt, both in thought and actions.

    I am surprised I am the only one on here interested in the Private Eye revelation about the Rayner soap opera. I thought you might have raised an eyebrow.

    It surrounds Chief Constable Watson reopening the Rayner case on a word from James Daly who has made no secret that he believes Watson should replace Rowley at the Met. Doubtless all coincidental, so nothing to see there. However Watson does appear to have connections to the Conservative Party and has made Conference fringe speeches.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893

    Cyclefree said:

    This story is utterly shocking. Of a piece, sadly and shamefully, with how the British state treats victims of its misconduct.

    "A British Army veteran of 13 years and victim of the Windrush Scandal has died in Jamaica after being left destitute and humiliated by the UK government.

    When Anthony Williams despaired with the UK in 2022, he told the Guardian that the Tory government was “just stringing us along until people lose interest, and we die out.
    ”"

    All Governments are malign, it's just this Government is weapons grade corrupt, both in thought and actions.

    I am surprised I am the only one on here interested in the Private Eye revelation about the Rayner soap opera. I thought you might have raised an eyebrow.

    It surrounds Chief Constable Watson reopening the Rayner case on a word from James Daly who has made no secret that he believes Watson should replace Rowley at the Met. Doubtless all coincidental, so nothing to see there. However Watson does appear to have connections to the Conservative Party and has made Conference fringe speeches.
    I thought Labour were in favour of nationalisation? Surely they should be delighted the nationally vital industry of political muck raking has been sensibly brought into government purview, control and expense?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,449
    edited April 28

    Watching the Rishi interview. Well, Rishi rant.

    Rishi Sunak = Ed Milliband. Its that bad.

    You and me both voted for EICIPM though
    I voted wrong when it came to the leadership.
    I made that error too. I voted for the wrong brother who I thought was competent but too allied to the Blair years. So I voted for the incompetent brother. Voting for a Labour leader is not a choice I will ever have to make again.
This discussion has been closed.