The latest polls suggest that lead is increasing slightly. I think we need to be cautious in claiming we understand Americans. We don't.
I don't claim to understand Americans, but I can read an opinion poll. Biden is deeply unpopular.
Talk of him winning Florida is a fantasy when he's currently on track to lose Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Is it so hard to believe that Trump will defeat an unpopular Democrat candidate? He defeated Clinton in 2016.
No, it's not so hard to believe at all. It's a damned close-run thing.
But your OP was somewhat misleading (unless you were referring specifically to FL and AZ, in which case fair enough, but Biden doesn't need those states in any case).
Biden's behind in the sense that he would lose an election held today, and needing to make up some ground. People are in denial that he is heading for defeat, and quibbling about the national opinion polls doesn't change that.
Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, but the tipping point state, Wisconsin, by only 0.63%.
Neck and neck on the national polls likely puts Biden 4 points behind where he needs to be. He's behind.
Okay, now you are conflating opinion with facts. Fine. But your OP was misleading.
"polls currently show Biden some way behind".
He is behind on the average by 0.2%! And the latest poll has him +3%.
No. The opinion polls in the states put Biden behind and Biden likely needs to win the popular vote by several percent to win the Electoral College, and therefore the election.
So he's behind in the polls.
I think if you'd written that then your post would have been fine – RCP's 'No Toss Up States' currently has it 293 to Trump. As it was, your post was misleading because it implied the race isn't even close. But it is close. To suggest otherwise is projection on your part, perhaps reverse psychology, perhaps to garner attention, who knows your reasoning? But projection it is.
Perhaps I was overreacting to the suggestion in the thread header that Biden would win Florida.
The race can be both close in popular vote and have one or other with a lock on the electoral college.
In this case, Trump is doing well in the swing states. Florida has been showing a steady lead for Trump, for example.
Indeed it can. But 293 in the 'No Toss Up' index in April is not a 'lock' by any stretch.
Not a lock, but worrying. The swing states are where it is decided.
Worrying certainly. I am very worried. That I do not dispute.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
A big part of Biden's appeal was being the competent grown-up in the room, in contrast to Trump telling people to drink bleach during a pandemic.
The Fall of Kabul destroys that. It means that any future difficulty is interpreted through the lack of confidence as a result of the Fall of Kabul.
Also another wild card for Biden Ukraine. If the Ukrainian lines start to collapse this could pose a tricky problem for him having invested so much political capital into it.
That's why it is so critical that the aid package he signed today gets on the ground really fast. Really fast.
It is also, of course, why that selfish barsteward Trump has worked so hard to delay that aid. After Kabul (and I agree with the comments about that downthread) another foreign military disaster would be fatal to Biden.
Indeed that plus mobilising those 18 to 25 yr old ukrainian men currently hanging around Kyiv nightclubs to the frontline.
1) If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors? 2) Which is more legendary - @TSE modesty or the quiet seriousness of his shoes? 3) How many @SeanT are there? 4) Why do we not let @malcolmg have cash strength turnip juice before the sun is over the yard arm? 5) Why does @NickPalmer own an internet?
Can we at least vary 1) – which has been used ad nauseam?
Perhaps some twist on the Northamptonshire/Lincolnshire border (look it up), a goat, and Monty Hall?
I would hate to be in Malmesburys mind. What a mixed up place.
The polls are slipping away from Trump, slowly but surely. The court case is causing untold stress on him, just look at his face in Court. He may have to stand down on medical grounds, he could be close to a breakdown..
Ergo, Brittany had the Noom in 1886. But it’s since been wiped away. Why and how?
Personally (and certainly as far as religious buildings are concerned) I would say that an important aspect is continued use of the space for prayer or worship. Religious observance in France is shockingly low, and so over the last 50 years those churches and chapels will have had very few people regularly praying and worshipping in them, even if they have been open and with services, and so they move from being places of 'spiritual thinness' (perhaps what you perceive as 'noom') to buildings that might be historically interesting, but which have little spiritual feel in the present day.
Yes that’s definitely a factor with the churches
When it comes to “places” in general France does a really good job of preserving its beautiful villages and scenic spots and the like. The problem is they are too diligent in their preservations. They primp and trim and tweak and install a pretty little kiosk selling lavender soap, and somehow in that process the essence is wiped away - like restoring an artwork and removing the patina. The patina is where the Noom is; like the nutrition in potato skins
Look at Locronan in Brittany. The first place I visited on this trip. Really really pretty but so manicured it had lost all noom. It was like a stage set - indeed it has been used as such for multiple movies, including Polanskis Tess
However I have remembered another place in France with majorly high Noominess. The Plantagenet tombs of fontevraud abbey when seen at midnight, slightly drunk. Spellbinding
Intriguingly fontevraud was also a leper house and the Nazis used it as a prison and execution ground: supporting my new theory that for maximum Noom you want some human suffering, too
Perhaps we have a tendency in this country, when it comes to places, to confuse dirty and characterful, just as in people we equate having a drinking problem with being interesting.
No it’s the posh British thing. Dirt accreted over centuries. Shoes that have lasted 60 years. Frayed Jermyn Street shirt collars. A battered metal teapot that is actually Jacobean silver tho you’d never know
Often this lets us down. We are slovenly and we don’t protect precious things we let them fall over. However it does mean things that do survive tend to keep their patina, their Noom
France is like an entire country run by the National Trust. In general that’s a good thing - it’s enviable - but not in this one particular and very important instance
I repeat this is not an anglocentric argument, I’m just saying Britain is Noomy, right at the top alongside Russia to my mind
Are there any women in Florida young enough to reproduce?
Apparently you have NOT been watching "CSI Miami" re-runs.
Plenty of wild females in Florida . . . from eight to eighty-plus . . . perhaps best policy is catch & release . . . then run for the Georgia line . . .
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
But, it isn't 3x more likely, is it? For the reasons @Sean_F lays out.
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
But, it isn't 3x more likely, is it? For the reasons @Sean_F lays out.
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Don't let it affect your betting.
I do think it is 3x more likely, that's my subjective probability based on how I think things will play out from here. Polls right now are meaningless.
Politico.com - George Santos drops independent House bid Santos, who faces numerous criminal charges, wants to remain in the public spotlight.
Scandal-plagued former Rep. George Santos dropped his independent bid on Tuesday for an eastern Long Island House seat.
Santos, who faces multiple felony charges, wrote on X that he did not want to potentially divide the Republican vote for first-term GOP Rep. Nick LaLota and help the eventual Democratic nominee in the 1st congressional district.
“Although Nick and I don’t have the same voting record [especially on vote to expell Santos from US House] and I remain critical of his abysmal record, I don’t want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the house to Dems,” Santos wrote in the post.
The former lawmaker faces 23 felony fraud charges, including identity theft and charges he submitted false campaign finance reports. He has pleaded not guilty.
Despite his numerous legal troubles, Santos insisted in his post Tuesday he wanted to remain active in politics.
“The future holds countless possibilities and I am ready willing and able to step up to the plate and go fight for my country at anytime,” he posted. . . .
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
The latest polls suggest that lead is increasing slightly. I think we need to be cautious in claiming we understand Americans. We don't.
I don't claim to understand Americans, but I can read an opinion poll. Biden is deeply unpopular.
Talk of him winning Florida is a fantasy when he's currently on track to lose Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Is it so hard to believe that Trump will defeat an unpopular Democrat candidate? He defeated Clinton in 2016.
It's unlikely that Biden will win Florida. The fact that it is being talked about as even possibly being in play is due to the act that there is a reproductive rights ballot initiative planned for November https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PnAWhzVlFg&t=235s
The Donaldsons were prevented from contacting each other before Wednesday’s court appearance...
...They were released on continuing bail of £350 each, with the condition that they do not speak to any prosecution witnesses. The condition that they have no contact with each other has been lifted.
If we want to compare Biden/Trump to Obama/Romney, at this stage of the campaign, then in April 2012, Obama led Romney by about 2.5% on average. The winning margin was 4.5%. But, both Obama and Romney had signficantly higher approval ratings than Biden and Trump. This was a popularity contest, rather than an unpopularity contest.
If there were a similar 2% shift to Biden between now and November - he might well win by 270 to 268 in the EC, or lose by 255 to 273. Looking at current State polling, he'd hold Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, lose Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, and the margin would be under 10,000 in Michigan, however it fell. It would be that tight.
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
A nation yearns for its father.
Actually Drakeford's ratings were plummeting and Gething has quite good ones
Indeed Gething and his transport minister, Skates, have announced that from September the 20mph will be reviewed with 30mph zones reinstated and also Drakeford's refusal to agree to road improvements and the 3rd Menai Crossing are to be revisited
Vaughan Gething's net approval rating stands at +10%.
Vaughan Gething Approval Rating in Wales (22-23 April):
The outgoing First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford receives a net approval rating of -18% in our latest poll, down one point from last month, and the lowest rating he has recorded in our Welsh monthly political tracker. Our poll finds 28% (–) of voters approve of his overall job performance as First Minister of Wales against 46% (+1) who disapprove.
Politico.com - George Santos drops independent House bid Santos, who faces numerous criminal charges, wants to remain in the public spotlight.
Scandal-plagued former Rep. George Santos dropped his independent bid on Tuesday for an eastern Long Island House seat.
Santos, who faces multiple felony charges, wrote on X that he did not want to potentially divide the Republican vote for first-term GOP Rep. Nick LaLota and help the eventual Democratic nominee in the 1st congressional district.
“Although Nick and I don’t have the same voting record [especially on vote to expell Santos from US House] and I remain critical of his abysmal record, I don’t want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the house to Dems,” Santos wrote in the post.
The former lawmaker faces 23 felony fraud charges, including identity theft and charges he submitted false campaign finance reports. He has pleaded not guilty.
Despite his numerous legal troubles, Santos insisted in his post Tuesday he wanted to remain active in politics.
“The future holds countless possibilities and I am ready willing and able to step up to the plate and go fight for my country at anytime,” he posted. . . .
The latest polls suggest that lead is increasing slightly. I think we need to be cautious in claiming we understand Americans. We don't.
I don't claim to understand Americans, but I can read an opinion poll. Biden is deeply unpopular.
Talk of him winning Florida is a fantasy when he's currently on track to lose Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Is it so hard to believe that Trump will defeat an unpopular Democrat candidate? He defeated Clinton in 2016.
No, it's not so hard to believe at all. It's a damned close-run thing.
But your OP was somewhat misleading (unless you were referring specifically to FL and AZ, in which case fair enough, but Biden doesn't need those states in any case).
Biden's behind in the sense that he would lose an election held today, and needing to make up some ground. People are in denial that he is heading for defeat, and quibbling about the national opinion polls doesn't change that.
Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, but the tipping point state, Wisconsin, by only 0.63%.
Neck and neck on the national polls likely puts Biden 4 points behind where he needs to be. He's behind.
Okay, now you are conflating opinion with facts. Fine. But your OP was misleading.
"polls currently show Biden some way behind".
He is behind on the average by 0.2%! And the latest poll has him +3%.
No. The opinion polls in the states put Biden behind and Biden likely needs to win the popular vote by several percent to win the Electoral College, and therefore the election.
So he's behind in the polls.
I think if you'd written that then your post would have been fine – RCP's 'No Toss Up States' currently has it 293 to Trump. As it was, your post was misleading because it implied the race isn't even close. But it is close. To suggest otherwise is projection on your part, perhaps reverse psychology, perhaps to garner attention, who knows your reasoning? But projection it is.
Perhaps I was overreacting to the suggestion in the thread header that Biden would win Florida.
The race can be both close in popular vote and have one or other with a lock on the electoral college.
In this case, Trump is doing well in the swing states. Florida has been showing a steady lead for Trump, for example.
The biggest unknown here is swingback.
If UK polls were showing Labour a couple of points ahead of the Tories but with some constituency polls showing strong leads for them, we'd all be very confident the lead would disappear come election time and the government would be returned comfortably.
However, this is the US not the UK. There's evidence of swingback in previous second term elections but I've no idea if the dynamics favour it now. Or indeed if US pollsters incorporate swingback of undecideds into their models like some UK ones do.
The US is much more polarised. Vote shares really have not shifted more than a few percent either way, between 2016 and now.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
But, it isn't 3x more likely, is it? For the reasons @Sean_F lays out.
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Don't let it affect your betting.
I do think it is 3x more likely, that's my subjective probability based on how I think things will play out from here. Polls right now are meaningless.
I agree with this assessment. We are in a very odd election year, with both candidates hugely unpopular, one facing criminal charges, and both suffering from low ratings. Both also have significant weaknesses - the abortion issue for Trump, the immigration issue for Biden.
But I believe fundamentals favour Biden. Democrats have typically been strong against MAGA candidates in this cycle when it comes to actual votes. We also have the big question of what happens if Trump is convicted.
I do think it will be close, uncomfortably so for the Democrats. But Biden will get over the line. We may not see any indications of this until the campaign starts in earnest, if we see indications at all. At the moment we are in a phoney campaign.
I also think the Democrats will take back the House, but lose the Senate.
Politico.com - George Santos drops independent House bid Santos, who faces numerous criminal charges, wants to remain in the public spotlight.
Scandal-plagued former Rep. George Santos dropped his independent bid on Tuesday for an eastern Long Island House seat.
Santos, who faces multiple felony charges, wrote on X that he did not want to potentially divide the Republican vote for first-term GOP Rep. Nick LaLota and help the eventual Democratic nominee in the 1st congressional district.
“Although Nick and I don’t have the same voting record [especially on vote to expell Santos from US House] and I remain critical of his abysmal record, I don’t want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the house to Dems,” Santos wrote in the post.
The former lawmaker faces 23 felony fraud charges, including identity theft and charges he submitted false campaign finance reports. He has pleaded not guilty.
Despite his numerous legal troubles, Santos insisted in his post Tuesday he wanted to remain active in politics.
“The future holds countless possibilities and I am ready willing and able to step up to the plate and go fight for my country at anytime,” he posted. . . .
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
But, it isn't 3x more likely, is it? For the reasons @Sean_F lays out.
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Don't let it affect your betting.
I do think it is 3x more likely, that's my subjective probability based on how I think things will play out from here. Polls right now are meaningless.
I agree with this assessment. We are in a very odd election year, with both candidates hugely unpopular, one facing criminal charges, and both suffering from low ratings. Both also have significant weaknesses - the abortion issue for Trump, the immigration issue for Biden.
But I believe fundamentals favour Biden. Democrats have typically been strong against MAGA candidates in this cycle when it comes to actual votes. We also have the big question of what happens if Trump is convicted.
I do think it will be close, uncomfortably so for the Democrats. But Biden will get over the line. We may not see any indications of this until the campaign starts in earnest, if we see indications at all. At the moment we are in a phoney campaign.
I also think the Democrats will take back the House, but lose the Senate.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
But, it isn't 3x more likely, is it? For the reasons @Sean_F lays out.
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Don't let it affect your betting.
I do think it is 3x more likely, that's my subjective probability based on how I think things will play out from here. Polls right now are meaningless.
I agree with this assessment. We are in a very odd election year, with both candidates hugely unpopular, one facing criminal charges, and both suffering from low ratings. Both also have significant weaknesses - the abortion issue for Trump, the immigration issue for Biden.
But I believe fundamentals favour Biden. Democrats have typically been strong against MAGA candidates in this cycle when it comes to actual votes. We also have the big question of what happens if Trump is convicted.
I do think it will be close, uncomfortably so for the Democrats. But Biden will get over the line. We may not see any indications of this until the campaign starts in earnest, if we see indications at all. At the moment we are in a phoney campaign.
I also think the Democrats will take back the House, but lose the Senate.
I think the Democrats can only hold the Senate if Biden wins a landslide. West Virginia's a write-off, which takes it to 50/50, and then they'd have to hold Montana and Ohio, which are now very red. On top of that, the former Republican governor of Maryland is turning that seat into a very competitive race.
They have a chance of a gain in Texas (nobody likes Cruz), but it's a long shot.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
Biden's approval rating right now is underwater, at 41%. That compares with Trump, at 45%, at the same stage in 2020, and Obama, at 47%, at the same stage in 2012.
So then you have to ask yourself why Biden is so unpopular, given the economy is going OK
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
Trump's favourability rating is only 42%. He is unpopular with most voters. The problem is, so is Biden, for the reasons you give.
My take is "rerun of 2020, except voters are comparing Trump to the actual Biden term rather than a future Biden term you could project your hope onto". We know from 2020 that it was close then, and actual-Biden hasn't massively surprised on the upside, so it's an uphill struggle second time around. I hope for a Biden win, but a Trump win would certainly not surprise me.
A Trump win wouldn't be a surprise but I think a Biden win is about 3x more likely. The US economy is in a good place, Trump is having his various misdeeds dragged through the courts, and the reproductive rights issue (it goes way beyond abortion) is huge. On the other side you have immigration, and Biden's age. On balance I think Biden is better positioned to win. Most Americans support abortion and other reproductive rights, and the issue has been driving surprisingly good Dem results in elections across the country ever since the Supreme Court decision. The Republicans are caught in the headlights on the issue - they are the proverbial dog who caught the car, as a former senior Trump official described it at an event I attended in DC last week.
But, it isn't 3x more likely, is it? For the reasons @Sean_F lays out.
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Don't let it affect your betting.
I do think it is 3x more likely, that's my subjective probability based on how I think things will play out from here. Polls right now are meaningless.
I agree with this assessment. We are in a very odd election year, with both candidates hugely unpopular, one facing criminal charges, and both suffering from low ratings. Both also have significant weaknesses - the abortion issue for Trump, the immigration issue for Biden.
But I believe fundamentals favour Biden. Democrats have typically been strong against MAGA candidates in this cycle when it comes to actual votes. We also have the big question of what happens if Trump is convicted.
I do think it will be close, uncomfortably so for the Democrats. But Biden will get over the line. We may not see any indications of this until the campaign starts in earnest, if we see indications at all. At the moment we are in a phoney campaign.
I also think the Democrats will take back the House, but lose the Senate.
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
ReformUK seem to be doing better in Wales than in England, which is slightly unexpected.
Drakeford's speed limit change has been a political albatross around labour, and right across the political divide changes have been demanded and to give Gething and Skates their due they have acknowledged it and are actively taking steps to reverse some of the zones and to address transport links especially in North Wales
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
ReformUK seem to be doing better in Wales than in England, which is slightly unexpected.
Drakeford's speed limit change has been a political albatross around labour, and right across the political divide changes have been demanded and to give Gething and Skates their due they have acknowledged it and are actively taking steps to reverse some of the zones and to address transport links especially in North Wales
What happens the next time a child is killed in a 20 back to 30 area where the drivers are being pandered to but where real humans and real children live, that is, a residential area? It's not going to be pretty when LLafur is blamed for the death.
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
ReformUK seem to be doing better in Wales than in England, which is slightly unexpected.
Drakeford's speed limit change has been a political albatross around labour, and right across the political divide changes have been demanded and to give Gething and Skates their due they have acknowledged it and are actively taking steps to reverse some of the zones and to address transport links especially in North Wales
Have recently returned from a four day holiday in Pembrokeshire. Couldn't really see a problem with the 20 mph limits. They mostly seemed perfectly reasonable. Motorists were mostly complying, despite the absence of enforcement cameras.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
'People who don't believe in God don't believe in nothing, they'll believe in anything.'
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
ReformUK seem to be doing better in Wales than in England, which is slightly unexpected.
Drakeford's speed limit change has been a political albatross around labour, and right across the political divide changes have been demanded and to give Gething and Skates their due they have acknowledged it and are actively taking steps to reverse some of the zones and to address transport links especially in North Wales
What happens the next time a child is killed in a 20 back to 30 area where the drivers are being pandered to but where real humans and real children live, that is, a residential area? It's not going to be pretty when LLafur is blamed for the death.
Childrten aren't in school all day.
The general expectation seems to be they will be kept for primarily residential areas - where to be honest, it's unlikely they make much difference anyway - but will be reverted for main roads running through residential areas (not uncommon in Wales).
Geoff Garin @geoffgarin In the new Marist national poll, Biden leads Trump by 3 points among all registered voters, but among the 78% who say they are definitely voting Biden's lead grows to 6 points -- 53% to 47%.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
'People who don't believe in God don't believe in nothing, they'll believe in anything.'
G K Chesterton
Wokeness is so obviously a religion. It actively states that “feels” are what matters, not “facts”. It is the leap of faith, the problem is it leaps somewhere very dark, where we are all obsessively racialised and guilt ridden and also super weird about gender
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
ReformUK seem to be doing better in Wales than in England, which is slightly unexpected.
Drakeford's speed limit change has been a political albatross around labour, and right across the political divide changes have been demanded and to give Gething and Skates their due they have acknowledged it and are actively taking steps to reverse some of the zones and to address transport links especially in North Wales
Have recently returned from a four day holiday in Pembrokeshire. Couldn't really see a problem with the 20 mph limits. They mostly seemed perfectly reasonable. Motorists were mostly complying, despite the absence of enforcement cameras.
Am I missing something?
Yes - you do not live here and do not reflect the overall view of the poor implementation of the policy which even the labour government under Gething have acknowledged and it is they who are making changes to their own policy
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
'People who don't believe in God don't believe in nothing, they'll believe in anything.'
G K Chesterton
I always thought that quotation was fabulously silly, so Chesterton rose in my estimation when I learned there was no evidence that he actually said it.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
'People who don't believe in God don't believe in nothing, they'll believe in anything.'
G K Chesterton
Wokeness is so obviously a religion. It actively states that “feels” are what matters, not “facts”. It is the leap of faith, the problem is it leaps somewhere very dark, where we are all obsessively racialised and guilt ridden and also super weird about gender
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
I always found Dawkins a bit odd as a polemicist as he often asserted rather than reasoned. He was a far less convincing advocate for The New Atheism than Christopher Hitchens - who acknowledged value in religion while considering the drawbacks outweighed the positives, and that we should outgrow it.
Or that for every kind, considerate person or great artist who makes the world better as they are inspired by belief, there's a nutter or grifter and they often make the world far worse, and that the wide acceptance of irrational foundational beliefs are core to the problem.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
J L Pearson the noomest of the Victorians, followed by Butterfield.
Guns, even artillery barrels, are not easy to make, even nowadays. The greater pressure they have to withstand, the harder they are to make. And the further you want to the thing-that-goes-boom to go, the greater the pressure. Unless you put the 'further' into the 'thing', and create a missile hittile. Where the pressure has to be contained within the thing...
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
Labour 40% (-9) Conservatives 18% (+2) Reform UK 18% (+3) Plaid 14% (+4) Lib Dem 6% (+1) Green 4% (-1) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
Those are huge swings, which imply large MoE.
It might also be Drakey's exit followed by the ongoing Gething troubles. ITV Wales News yesterday going big on the donation. I am not sure Gething is there for the medium term. Miles is waiting in the wings for when Gething falls. The decline is genuine.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
I always found Dawkins a bit odd as a polemicist as he often asserted rather than reasoned. He was a far less convincing advocate for The New Atheism than Christopher Hitchens - who acknowledged value in religion while considering the drawbacks outweighed the positives, and that we should outgrow it.
Or that for every kind, considerate person or great artist who makes the world better as they are inspired by belief, there's a nutter or grifter and they often make the world far worse, and that the wide acceptance of irrational foundational beliefs are core to the problem.
On irrational foundational beliefs, there are basically two sorts of knowledge theories. Foundationalism says that everyone has beliefs that are not based on other beliefs and are axiomatic - and can't be demonstrated - they are irrational. Its opposite says there isn't a foundation at all, let alone a rational one. This is as true of non religious systems as of religious ones; so good luck with solving the problem you identify.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
J L Pearson the noomest of the Victorians, followed by Butterfield.
Heard of the latter, not the former. Googling now!
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Guns, even artillery barrels, are not easy to make, even nowadays. The greater pressure they have to withstand, the harder they are to make. And the further you want to the thing-that-goes-boom to go, the greater the pressure. Unless you put the 'further' into the 'thing', and create a missile hittile. Where the pressure has to be contained within the thing...
I've never quite seen the logic in abandoning battleships and going for carriers.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
J L Pearson the noomest of the Victorians, followed by Butterfield.
Heard of the latter, not the former. Googling now!
His best are in London, but up here in the frozen north is St George Cullercoats, which followed by fish and chips up the road in Whitley Bay is a noomfest.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
'People who don't believe in God don't believe in nothing, they'll believe in anything.'
G K Chesterton
Wokeness is so obviously a religion. It actively states that “feels” are what matters, not “facts”. It is the leap of faith, the problem is it leaps somewhere very dark, where we are all obsessively racialised and guilt ridden and also super weird about gender
Don't believe all you read in the Spectator. That Sean fellow used to contribute to this board. He tended to go off on one here too. Utter confected woke fake news nonsense, just ignore!
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
Geoff Garin @geoffgarin In the new Marist national poll, Biden leads Trump by 3 points among all registered voters, but among the 78% who say they are definitely voting Biden's lead grows to 6 points -- 53% to 47%.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Exactly! You get it totally. That is the Noom
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
The R&W poll in Wales looks interesting - it's the lowest Labour share in Wales since the autumn of 2021 and takes the party back to around its December 2019 vote share.
Back then,. Labour won 41% in Wales with the Conservatives on 36%, Plaid on 10%, the LDs on 6% and TBP on 5.5%.
The swing in this poll from Conservative to Labour is 8.5% with Reform more than trebling the TBP vote share. It would be good to see Welsh polling from other pollsters.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
Patriotism compels me to point out that most of the north is neither industrial nor scarred by human suffering, of course. And I offer you Castlerigg Stone Circle as the best examole of good noom. Lud's Church in the Peak District, too. Which is not a church but a natural ravine but was used as a secret churchy meeting place for reasons which now escape me. Richmond parish church, North Yorkshire. And a personal one: the summit of Latterbarrow, near Ambleside. Makes me want to weep with joy every time I go there.
Last poll I can find for Florida is dated 17 April by Mainstreet Research. It shows Trump 9% ahead.
Using the latest poll in each state shows Trump winning 301 to 237. However Democrats have tended to outperform the polls in recent times. If the polls are out by 2% in Biden's favour, Trump wins 270 -268. If they are out by 3% in Biden's favour Biden wins 288-250.
The polls will move, I'm guessing in Biden's favour, and there is a bias between poll and actual which favours Biden.
So I think Biden will win but I wish I were more certain.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
The R&W poll in Wales looks interesting - it's the lowest Labour share in Wales since the autumn of 2021 and takes the party back to around its December 2019 vote share.
Back then,. Labour won 41% in Wales with the Conservatives on 36%, Plaid on 10%, the LDs on 6% and TBP on 5.5%.
The swing in this poll from Conservative to Labour is 8.5% with Reform more than trebling the TBP vote share. It would be good to see Welsh polling from other pollsters.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
I always found Dawkins a bit odd as a polemicist as he often asserted rather than reasoned. He was a far less convincing advocate for The New Atheism than Christopher Hitchens - who acknowledged value in religion while considering the drawbacks outweighed the positives, and that we should outgrow it.
Or that for every kind, considerate person or great artist who makes the world better as they are inspired by belief, there's a nutter or grifter and they often make the world far worse, and that the wide acceptance of irrational foundational beliefs are core to the problem.
My beef with New Atheists lies with their belief that the Roman Empire was ruled by secular-minded liberals, until bigoted Christians took over, and deliberately suppressed learning for a thousand years, creating the “Dark Ages.”
Never mind that no serious historian has advanced that view in decades (Catherine Nixey not falling into the category of serious historian).
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Exactly! You get it totally. That is the Noom
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
Well I agree old places have a greater tendency to be noomy. I've never felt Noom in a modern church. Mostly they give a feeling of anti-noom - utter mundanity in somewhere which should feel at least a bit noomy. But age isn't the criterion. Chester cathedral is ancient, yet just feels pleasant.
Guns, even artillery barrels, are not easy to make, even nowadays. The greater pressure they have to withstand, the harder they are to make. And the further you want to the thing-that-goes-boom to go, the greater the pressure. Unless you put the 'further' into the 'thing', and create a missile hittile. Where the pressure has to be contained within the thing...
I've never quite seen the logic in abandoning battleships and going for carriers.
Projection of power, IMV. Your vessel is a massively costly beast, and it needs protection. Battleships can only project power twenty miles or so, with decreasing accuracy. Carrier-based planes can project that power hundreds of miles away, and can 'see' much further than a battleship that is not practically above sea level, even with radar.
The difference is cost: if you need to bombard a coast, a battleship is excellent. For everything else, it is sub-optimal.
But both are expensive and vulnerable. So you need even more assets to defend them. Unless you're the RN...
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Exactly! You get it totally. That is the Noom
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
Well I agree old places have a greater tendency to be noomy. I've never felt Noom in a modern church. Mostly they give a feeling of anti-noom - utter mundanity in somewhere which should feel at least a bit noomy. But age isn't the criterion. Chester cathedral is ancient, yet just feels pleasant.
Last poll I can find for Florida is dated 17 April by Mainstreet Research. It shows Trump 9% ahead.
Using the latest poll in each state shows Trump winning 301 to 237. However Democrats have tended to outperform the polls in recent times. If the polls are out by 2% in Biden's favour, Trump wins 270 -268. If they are out by 3% in Biden's favour Biden wins 288-250.
The polls will move, I'm guessing in Biden's favour, and there is a bias between poll and actual which favours Biden.
So I think Biden will win but I wish I were more certain.
Democrats have tended to outperform the polls recently - this might reflect that Biden's personal unpopularity is a drag on Democrat polling. So Biden may not outperform the polls.
I'm struggling to see why you would be so confident that the polls will move in Biden's favour. Trump has survived losing the election, inciting an insurrection, and all manner of other misdeeds, that so many people confidently predicted would sink him in the past.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
Angel Meadows in Manchester. Ugh, ugh, ugh.
Googling it now. My lord
It's a moderately well kept part of the urban environment now. But is not a pleasant place to linger. Bad noom.
Guns, even artillery barrels, are not easy to make, even nowadays. The greater pressure they have to withstand, the harder they are to make. And the further you want to the thing-that-goes-boom to go, the greater the pressure. Unless you put the 'further' into the 'thing', and create a missile hittile. Where the pressure has to be contained within the thing...
I've never quite seen the logic in abandoning battleships and going for carriers.
Projection of power, IMV. Your vessel is a massively costly beast, and it needs protection. Battleships can only project power twenty miles or so, with decreasing accuracy. Carrier-based planes can project that power hundreds of miles away, and can 'see' much further than a battleship that is not practically above sea level, even with radar.
The difference is cost: if you need to bombard a coast, a battleship is excellent. For everything else, it is sub-optimal.
But both are expensive and vulnerable. So you need even more assets to defend them. Unless you're the RN...
The thing though is that now (capital ships) they are mostly about defending themselves. A battleship really delivers when it's there - carriers far less so.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Exactly! You get it totally. That is the Noom
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
Well I agree old places have a greater tendency to be noomy. I've never felt Noom in a modern church. Mostly they give a feeling of anti-noom - utter mundanity in somewhere which should feel at least a bit noomy. But age isn't the criterion. Chester cathedral is ancient, yet just feels pleasant.
Canterbury is full on noom though.
Fair enough. Never been. What it feels like is the sum total of all the people who have ever thought 'this is a special place'.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Exactly! You get it totally. That is the Noom
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
Well I agree old places have a greater tendency to be noomy. I've never felt Noom in a modern church. Mostly they give a feeling of anti-noom - utter mundanity in somewhere which should feel at least a bit noomy. But age isn't the criterion. Chester cathedral is ancient, yet just feels pleasant.
It's a fucking pointless discussion as 'noom' (*) is utterly subjective - what one person thinks has 'noom' will leave another cold. And it may even depend on your mood when you first encounter it - if you're tired, or in a bad mood, the noominess may bypass you, never to be discovered on subsequent visits. Or if you're off your head on drugs, you might find noom in the local McDonalds.
Wen I was a kid, my dad took me into a building he was demolishing. It had been built in WW2, and had a composite umbrella roof due to steel shortages. Members in tension were steel; those in compression a type of plywood. It gave me the same sort of 'noom' that I get from (say) Durham or Ely cathedrals. A magnificent study of purpose and material.
(*) I guess Leon has discovered a new word today...
Less than a minute in and the first inaccuracy. Apparently, Reform were polling at 3-4% in November - no, they weren't. Ipsos had them at 4% but most polls already had them at 7-10%. Her sacking (let's call it what it was) wasn't the catalyst for the Reform polling rise.
Less than two minutes in and apparently Labour and the Conservatives are the same. Needless to say, Spectator TV are idolising her and giving her the softest of questions thus far.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk into somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Just to comment that the numinous often isn't found in the set pieces. If St Paul's Cathedral has any, I have missed it. 100 yards away St Vedast and St Martin Ludgate have it to give away. More parish churches have it than cathedrals. Iona has it, but not the abbey. It doesn't happen by trying and takes you by surprise. Salle in Norfolk has it. And Walpole St Peter. Best keep the numinous in Lincolnshire a well guarded secret but follow signs to Whaplode.
Yes! I’m right because I totally agree, and you and I have never met
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
I've been to Salle. And I agree. I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle. It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient. It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
Exactly! You get it totally. That is the Noom
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
These things are subjective I think. One person can be moved the tears by St Peter's Basilica; another can be left cold - regardless of belief.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
I always found Dawkins a bit odd as a polemicist as he often asserted rather than reasoned. He was a far less convincing advocate for The New Atheism than Christopher Hitchens - who acknowledged value in religion while considering the drawbacks outweighed the positives, and that we should outgrow it.
Or that for every kind, considerate person or great artist who makes the world better as they are inspired by belief, there's a nutter or grifter and they often make the world far worse, and that the wide acceptance of irrational foundational beliefs are core to the problem.
On irrational foundational beliefs, there are basically two sorts of knowledge theories. Foundationalism says that everyone has beliefs that are not based on other beliefs and are axiomatic - and can't be demonstrated - they are irrational. Its opposite says there isn't a foundation at all, let alone a rational one. This is as true of non religious systems as of religious ones; so good luck with solving the problem you identify.
I know, I studied philosophy. You'd say you get around the problem with Coherentism based around scientific theory - which allows for revision when we discover new truths and junk old ones that become false. It's always the maximal collection of beliefs that can be true together. You have to exclude God until you provide a proof of his existence that coheres with the wider theory on the grounds that (to simplify) a non-corporeal entity can't impact on the corporeal is one of your truths as a basic tenet of physics - so its negation can't be included.
Not the point there though I suppose, as Hitchens point was that even the most globally popular religions are based on myths that our greater understanding of the world now makes look deeply irrational, absurd or even dangerous and wicked. Whereas a foundational belief in say, theoretical physics or the human mind, has its basis in observed reality and measurement.
I'm not sure I entirely agree with him but it's just far more convincing than Dawkins blunt rejectionism (which he now seems to be rowing back on a bit).
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
Patriotism compels me to point out that most of the north is neither industrial nor scarred by human suffering, of course. And I offer you Castlerigg Stone Circle as the best examole of good noom. Lud's Church in the Peak District, too. Which is not a church but a natural ravine but was used as a secret churchy meeting place for reasons which now escape me. Richmond parish church, North Yorkshire. And a personal one: the summit of Latterbarrow, near Ambleside. Makes me want to weep with joy every time I go there.
Yes totally. Castlerigg is fantastic - I’ve been trying to remember its name all day, as I’ve developed this theory. Carnac, despite its monumental scale, has zero Noom (like St Paul’s Cathedral). Castlerigg has oodles of Noom. The Lake District in general is laced with Noom, despite the tourists
Yorkshire is pretty much terra incognita to me (apart from York); I need to fix that. York Minster I found has subdued Noom, not zero, but not a lot
Guns, even artillery barrels, are not easy to make, even nowadays. The greater pressure they have to withstand, the harder they are to make. And the further you want to the thing-that-goes-boom to go, the greater the pressure. Unless you put the 'further' into the 'thing', and create a missile hittile. Where the pressure has to be contained within the thing...
I've never quite seen the logic in abandoning battleships and going for carriers.
Projection of power, IMV. Your vessel is a massively costly beast, and it needs protection. Battleships can only project power twenty miles or so, with decreasing accuracy. Carrier-based planes can project that power hundreds of miles away, and can 'see' much further than a battleship that is not practically above sea level, even with radar.
The difference is cost: if you need to bombard a coast, a battleship is excellent. For everything else, it is sub-optimal.
But both are expensive and vulnerable. So you need even more assets to defend them. Unless you're the RN...
The thing though is that now (capital ships) they are mostly about defending themselves. A battleship really delivers when it's there - carriers far less so.
Capital ships could not defend themselves at all when carrier-based aviation came about. The early years of WW2 showed us that all too clearly. Carriers allow both defence (from surface and aviation, not generally subsurface), *and* allow longer-range offence.
The Zumwalt class and similar have not exactly taken us the other way.
It's quite possible that carriers show themselves as vulnerable as battleships did in WW2. But we've not tested that yet, and until we do, the carriers are king.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
I rather like that.
I’ve encountered quite a lot of Noom in the industrial north, but I’m afraid it is often Dark Noom, the Noom of human suffering - married, in this case, with awesome change
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
Patriotism compels me to point out that most of the north is neither industrial nor scarred by human suffering, of course. And I offer you Castlerigg Stone Circle as the best examole of good noom. Lud's Church in the Peak District, too. Which is not a church but a natural ravine but was used as a secret churchy meeting place for reasons which now escape me. Richmond parish church, North Yorkshire. And a personal one: the summit of Latterbarrow, near Ambleside. Makes me want to weep with joy every time I go there.
Yes totally. Castlerigg is fantastic - I’ve been trying to remember its name all day, as I’ve developed this theory. Carnac, despite its monumental scale, has zero Noom (like St Paul’s Cathedral). Castlerigg has oodles of Noom. The Lake District in general is laced with Noom, despite the tourists
Yorkshire is pretty much terra incognita to me (apart from York); I need to fix that. York Minster I found has subdued Noom, not zero, but not a lot
York Minster was badly damaged by fire in 1984, of course, so that probably doesn't help.
The Numinous. The tingle of the sacred, derived from place
Not a word that feels right to me - always imagine it's lots of things religious (although that isn't it's meaning). "Noom" - I presume you made that up?
I made it up, by taking numinous and making it mean exactly what I mean, that unplaceable shiver, that unmistakable tingle, when you walk inyp somewhere or you gaze up at something and you think Oooh, God has been here, for some reason
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Well if it becomes a thing as a word then hoorah for you. I guess 'meme' got there (Dennet was my first encounter with it)
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
An absolutely brilliant concept and insight, which makes him immortal by itself. Fair play
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
'People who don't believe in God don't believe in nothing, they'll believe in anything.'
G K Chesterton
Wokeness is so obviously a religion. It actively states that “feels” are what matters, not “facts”. It is the leap of faith, the problem is it leaps somewhere very dark, where we are all obsessively racialised and guilt ridden and also super weird about gender
Once it has led to centuries of warfare, the deaths, torture and mutilation of millions, and countless wrecked, abused, repressed lives, that clickbait might have some point to it.
Comments
{drinks tea in a sinister manner}
The court case is causing untold stress on him, just look at his face in Court. He may have to stand down on medical grounds, he could be close to a breakdown..
https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-woman-50-who-thought-she-was-in-menopause-gives-birth-everyone-was-in-shock
Often this lets us down. We are slovenly and we don’t protect precious things we let them fall over. However it does mean things that do survive tend to keep their patina, their Noom
France is like an entire country run by the National Trust. In general that’s a good thing - it’s enviable - but not in this one particular and very important instance
I repeat this is not an anglocentric argument, I’m just saying Britain is Noomy, right at the top alongside Russia to my mind
Other Noomy countries: Armenia, Greece, Mexico
Iceland and Greenland on a per capita basis
Plenty of wild females in Florida . . . from eight to eighty-plus . . . perhaps best policy is catch & release . . . then run for the Georgia line . . .
What you lay out is the reasons why you think it should be 3x more likely.
Don't let it affect your betting.
Here we've basically made peace with it, by and large, over the last couple of years.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Labour leads by 22% in Wales.
Highest Reform and Plaid %'s in our polling.
Wales Westminster VI (22-23 Apr):
Labour 40% (-9)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Reform UK 18% (+3)
Plaid 14% (+4)
Lib Dem 6% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 23-24 Mar
Santos, who faces numerous criminal charges, wants to remain in the public spotlight.
Scandal-plagued former Rep. George Santos dropped his independent bid on Tuesday for an eastern Long Island House seat.
Santos, who faces multiple felony charges, wrote on X that he did not want to potentially divide the Republican vote for first-term GOP Rep. Nick LaLota and help the eventual Democratic nominee in the 1st congressional district.
“Although Nick and I don’t have the same voting record [especially on vote to expell Santos from US House] and I remain critical of his abysmal record, I don’t want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the house to Dems,” Santos wrote in the post.
LaLota responded: “Chat GPT translation: He’s taking a plea deal.” . . .
The former lawmaker faces 23 felony fraud charges, including identity theft and charges he submitted false campaign finance reports. He has pleaded not guilty.
Despite his numerous legal troubles, Santos insisted in his post Tuesday he wanted to remain active in politics.
“The future holds countless possibilities and I am ready willing and able to step up to the plate and go fight for my country at anytime,” he posted. . . .
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/23/george-santos-drops-independent-house-bid-00153958
The fact that it is being talked about as even possibly being in play is due to the act that there is a reproductive rights ballot initiative planned for November
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PnAWhzVlFg&t=235s
and here is what happened when a Democrat campaigned on it in a House seat Special Election (By-Election to us Brits)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFiTxdXcti8&t=35s
The Donaldsons were prevented from contacting each other before Wednesday’s court appearance...
...They were released on continuing bail of £350 each, with the condition that they do not speak to any prosecution witnesses. The condition that they have no contact with each other has been lifted.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeffrey-donaldson-court-sex-charges-wife-eleanor-d0s05bqtf
If we want to compare Biden/Trump to Obama/Romney, at this stage of the campaign, then in April 2012, Obama led Romney by about 2.5% on average. The winning margin was 4.5%. But, both Obama and Romney had signficantly higher approval ratings than Biden and Trump. This was a popularity contest, rather than an unpopularity contest.
If there were a similar 2% shift to Biden between now and November - he might well win by 270 to 268 in the EC, or lose by 255 to 273. Looking at current State polling, he'd hold Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, lose Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, and the margin would be under 10,000 in Michigan, however it fell. It would be that tight.
Indeed Gething and his transport minister, Skates, have announced that from September the 20mph will be reviewed with 30mph zones reinstated and also Drakeford's refusal to agree to road improvements and the 3rd Menai Crossing are to be revisited
Vaughan Gething's net approval rating stands at +10%.
Vaughan Gething Approval Rating in Wales (22-23 April):
Approve: 33% (+8)
Disapprove: 23% (+2)
Net: +10% (+6)
Changes +/- 23-24 March
Redfield Wilton 30th January 2024
The outgoing First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford receives a net approval rating of -18% in our latest poll, down one point from last month, and the lowest rating he has recorded in our Welsh monthly political tracker. Our poll finds 28% (–) of voters approve of his overall job performance as First Minister of Wales against 46% (+1) who disapprove.
But I believe fundamentals favour Biden. Democrats have typically been strong against MAGA candidates in this cycle when it comes to actual votes. We also have the big question of what happens if Trump is convicted.
I do think it will be close, uncomfortably so for the Democrats. But Biden will get over the line. We may not see any indications of this until the campaign starts in earnest, if we see indications at all. At the moment we are in a phoney campaign.
I also think the Democrats will take back the House, but lose the Senate.
And it’s not always a good reason, there is Noom in the Great War Battlefields because of all the human suffering and sorrow, the landscape of cemeteries is a prayer in pale green and bone-white stone
What’s more, I haven’t had a drink yet
Awful news about the stabbings in a Carmarthenshire school.
On a lighter note, I do wish someone at Sky could correct the newsreader's pronunciation of Dyfed Powys police.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oR2xRWeQwB0
They have a chance of a gain in Texas (nobody likes Cruz), but it's a long shot.
https://news.sky.com/story/welsh-government-set-to-announce-changes-to-20mph-limits-13121282
I feel your noom about great battlefields not because of the suffering and endeavour, but because of the huge collection of great hopes that fired brightly and were snuffed out.
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1783184198477508785
Meme was coined by Dawkins, surely
This whole discussion has been very illuminating, it’s also led me to this place where I am now desperate to go, and which looks like - despite being French - it has a high Noom Factor, requiring Noomblock
https://mysearchformagic.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/the-megaliths-of-saint-just-brittany/
Childrten aren't in school all day.
Am I missing something?
He’s quite an odd figure now. I see he has taken to praising Christianity because he is frightened of the rise of Islam in the west. This is the same Christianity which he has been effectively deconstructing for five decades. Oops
If he’d asked, we could have told him that if you destroy one religion, it doesn’t mean it will be replaced by cold secular logic, it means it will be replaced by other religions. In our case this is either Wokeness or Islam, and Dawkins is right but rather late to see that this is not necessarily progress
G K Chesterton
Which is actually a sensible compromise.
Geoff Garin
@geoffgarin
In the new Marist national poll, Biden leads Trump by 3 points among all registered voters, but among the 78% who say they are definitely voting Biden's lead grows to 6 points -- 53% to 47%.
https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/1782425747329577185
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-if-wokeness-really-is-the-new-christianity/
St Paul’s has zero Noom. Almost negative Noom. You walk in and think Ah, impressive, but you think that staring up at a rather good skyscraper or admiring a really fine supercar. It’s definitely not spiritual, it’s an appreciation of engineering and ingenuity. it ain’t Noom
And yes you can’t necessarily conjure it up. A few rare blessed architects can, weirdly the atheist fascist-Marxist Corbusier is one who could. Hawksmoor also, he dishes out intense Noom. Christ Church Spitalfields, fuck
Or that for every kind, considerate person or great artist who makes the world better as they are inspired by belief, there's a nutter or grifter and they often make the world far worse, and that the wide acceptance of irrational foundational beliefs are core to the problem.
The excellent Drachinifel has just published a video on naval guns, and how much complexity they have in them:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLwsl_BH1Gs
Guns, even artillery barrels, are not easy to make, even nowadays. The greater pressure they have to withstand, the harder they are to make. And the further you want to the thing-that-goes-boom to go, the greater the pressure. Unless you put the 'further' into the 'thing', and create a missile hittile. Where the pressure has to be contained within the thing...
Coalbrookdale is off the Noom dial. Also Blaenau Ffestiniog
* Volcanoes permitting.
I used to ring church bells so have visited a lot of churches (including a fair few in Lincolnshire.) Most are nice buildings, but nothing more. But some give you the tingle.
It's not about size, or architecture, or place, or age. I've got it in isolated villages and towns and suburbs and churches ancient and not ancient.
It's not just churches. Stone circles, too. Hilltops. Little hidden away wooded valleys. Some places just feel special.
it can surprise you in the weirdest places. Even the crappiest urban environments can, occasionally, invoke it. I slightly disagree on age, I do think that helps, especially for buildings/townscapes - nonetheless it’s not essential
Eg I experienced Noom on the roof of Corbusier’s Unite in Marseilles, built in 1952
It is genuinely weird that this atheist architect made such powerfully religious buildings, but he did. What’s more, people recognised this, hence the commissions for him to design the chapel at Ronchamp and the priory of La Tourette
The R&W poll in Wales looks interesting - it's the lowest Labour share in Wales since the autumn of 2021 and takes the party back to around its December 2019 vote share.
Back then,. Labour won 41% in Wales with the Conservatives on 36%, Plaid on 10%, the LDs on 6% and TBP on 5.5%.
The swing in this poll from Conservative to Labour is 8.5% with Reform more than trebling the TBP vote share. It would be good to see Welsh polling from other pollsters.
Lud's Church in the Peak District, too. Which is not a church but a natural ravine but was used as a secret churchy meeting place for reasons which now escape me.
Richmond parish church, North Yorkshire.
And a personal one: the summit of Latterbarrow, near Ambleside. Makes me want to weep with joy every time I go there.
Using the latest poll in each state shows Trump winning 301 to 237.
However Democrats have tended to outperform the polls in recent times.
If the polls are out by 2% in Biden's favour, Trump wins 270 -268.
If they are out by 3% in Biden's favour Biden wins 288-250.
The polls will move, I'm guessing in Biden's favour, and there is a bias between poll and actual which favours Biden.
So I think Biden will win but I wish I were more certain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g__pM_1XiMY
Never mind that no serious historian has advanced that view in decades (Catherine Nixey not falling into the category of serious historian).
The difference is cost: if you need to bombard a coast, a battleship is excellent. For everything else, it is sub-optimal.
But both are expensive and vulnerable. So you need even more assets to defend them. Unless you're the RN...
The boundary between worlds is wearing thin again, as it did when she of the helical lectern became Tory leader and then prime minister.
I'm struggling to see why you would be so confident that the polls will move in Biden's favour. Trump has survived losing the election, inciting an insurrection, and all manner of other misdeeds, that so many people confidently predicted would sink him in the past.
What it feels like is the sum total of all the people who have ever thought 'this is a special place'.
Wen I was a kid, my dad took me into a building he was demolishing. It had been built in WW2, and had a composite umbrella roof due to steel shortages. Members in tension were steel; those in compression a type of plywood. It gave me the same sort of 'noom' that I get from (say) Durham or Ely cathedrals. A magnificent study of purpose and material.
(*) I guess Leon has discovered a new word today...
Less than two minutes in and apparently Labour and the Conservatives are the same. Needless to say, Spectator TV are idolising her and giving her the softest of questions thus far.
Not the point there though I suppose, as Hitchens point was that even the most globally popular religions are based on myths that our greater understanding of the world now makes look deeply irrational, absurd or even dangerous and wicked. Whereas a foundational belief in say, theoretical physics or the human mind, has its basis in observed reality and measurement.
I'm not sure I entirely agree with him but it's just far more convincing than Dawkins blunt rejectionism (which he now seems to be rowing back on a bit).
Yorkshire is pretty much terra incognita to me (apart from York); I need to fix that. York Minster I found has subdued Noom, not zero, but not a lot
The Zumwalt class and similar have not exactly taken us the other way.
It's quite possible that carriers show themselves as vulnerable as battleships did in WW2. But we've not tested that yet, and until we do, the carriers are king.