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Aborting a second Trump presidency – politicalbetting.com
Aborting a second Trump presidency – politicalbetting.com
Biden: "It was a political deal to get rid of Roe, a political deal Trump made with the evangelical base of the Republican Party to look past his moral and character flaws in exchange for his commitment to appoint justices to SCOTUS who would overturn Roe." pic.twitter.com/s9rdQqkjbu
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I can see a lot of shocked and disappointed people on pb.com when the counting is done in November.
The latest Florida poll shows a strong majority in favour of a ballot measure to liberalise abortion laws, and at the same time, Trump leading 50/42, and Scott leading 52/36.
The latest poll from Emerson gives Trump a 13% lead in the State.
The latest polls suggest that lead is increasing slightly. I think we need to be cautious in claiming we understand Americans. We don't.
Immigration
Immigration is to Biden what abortion restriction is to Trump. And I wonder if American voters are even angrier about the former than the latter
If they are then Trump wins (absent jail terms etc)
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/
People ought to blame Trump for scuppering border control, but they don't.
And the latest poll has Biden +3.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
I think the NY trial is problematic in a variety of ways but it also shows the character of the man. The evidence yesterday about how the National Inquirer had been "persuaded" to run abusive stories of all of Trump's opponents, Republican and Democrat alike while catching and killing his own scandals really should make it obvious that this is not a man to elect to local dog catcher, let alone President. But Americans evidently do not think that way. People approaching this with UK sensibilities need to be cautious.
Also the idea that Trump might “destroy world peace” is now laughable. Look at the world under Biden
National polls - not really true. It’s a statistical dead heat. Maybe Biden a smidgen behind.
Statewide polls - more of a mixed bag. Arizona, Nevada and Georgia don’t look great for Biden right now. Minnesota he’s narrowly ahead. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are neck and neck, pretty much.
Biden can lose Arizona, Nevada and Georgia and win the presidency, so long as he grabs the additional EV from Nebraska. So I don’t think we can say he’s really trailing right now.
Talk of him winning Florida is a fantasy when he's currently on track to lose Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Is it so hard to believe that Trump will defeat an unpopular Democrat candidate? He defeated Clinton in 2016.
This seems like Americas 2015, with Trump as Chaos with Ed Miliband and Biden as Cameron.
Not sure who the Lib Dems are in that analogy though.
Based on 2016 and 2020, neck and neck on national vote share is a clear and comfortable win for Trump in the Electoral College.
But your OP was somewhat misleading (unless you were referring specifically to FL and AZ, in which case fair enough, but Biden doesn't need those states in any case).
immigration, inflation, interest rates, wokeness, world war 3, plus the fact Biden is a doddery old geezer
How many of those can he fix by November?
"They are out to get you not me. Im just in the way" Powerful.
I'd put that in the 25-30% range allowing for reasonably related contingencies between the 3 states.
I love his windows in the Zurich Fraumunster
That leaves the border issues where he is thought to be weak. A key issue there is whether Johnson is willing to table the Senate's bipartisan bill on Border security that Trump previously vetoed. I think Johnson might in exchange for the Democrats supporting his Speakership.
And, of course, woke. What I I read indicates that this is much less of an issue in the US than it is here although the Democrats have their share of nutters who press this to the point of irritation.
Looking at this rationally, Biden should win at a canter. But right now he's not.
Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020, but the tipping point state, Wisconsin, by only 0.63%.
Neck and neck on the national polls likely puts Biden 4 points behind where he needs to be. He's behind.
These latest student protests over Palestine are particularly dangerous for Biden. They will turn young Woke pro Palestine voters - and Muslims - against Biden (for being too pro Israel) - they will simultaneously appal middle America as a sign of violent strife
Cf the election of Richard Nixon in 1968
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaiser-Wilhelm-Gedächtniskirche#/media/Datei:Berliner_Kaiser-Wilhelm-Gedächtniskirche_-_Zwischenraum_Innen-_und_Außenwand.jpg
That's where the big change happens on this graph.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
A big part of Biden's appeal was being the competent grown-up in the room, in contrast to Trump telling people to drink bleach during a pandemic.
The Fall of Kabul destroys that. It means that any future difficulty is interpreted through the lack of confidence as a result of the Fall of Kabul.
"polls currently show Biden some way behind".
He is behind on the average by 0.2%! And the latest poll has him +3%.
https://renaissanceissues.wordpress.com/2015/08/13/florence-boot-rene-lalique-and-jerseys-glasschurch-st-matthews-milbrook/
..Aujard 'not sure' the legal department reviewed documents to disclose
The inquiry is presented the draft Deloitte report form 23 May 2014, which reviewed Horizon documents, examined transaction data and interviewed Fujitsu and Post Office staff.
There is a list of documents that were reviewed.
Chris Aujard is asked if anyone in the legal department went through the list to check if the documents should be disclosed.
“I’m not sure that they did”, he says.
Aujard adds someone should have looked through the report and asked if it triggered any duties of disclosure.
He is not sure if the report was disclosed to Cartwright King, the law firm which acted for the Post Office...
"Someone.."
I've plugged Tudeley enough today, and I have things to do - however afaik it is the only place where he did an entire church, which is 12 windows there contrasting with a whitewashed interior.
So he's behind in the polls.
I bet it’s replete with The Noom
One of my other special likes is etched windows, which are rarer even than modern stained glass.
The best I know is the glazed facade of Coventry Cathedral.
I guess what I’m trying to say is - the polls give a useful indication of the state of the race, but we are usually talking margin of error gaps between candidates in Presidential contests nowadays, and therefore they should be read accordingly.
Biden's approval ratings are awful.
French churches are quite profoundly dull. They are often magnificent or appealing or nicely odd outside but as soon as you go in. Yawn. No noom. I’ve stopped bothering to go into the churches here in Brittany - I know they will disappoint
Relatedly I just saw this quote from Gauguin in the local museum here in Pont Aven. It makes clear that Gauguin came here for the Noom
Ergo, Brittany had the Noom in 1886. But it’s since been wiped away. Why and how?
or overtaking Trump if RFK Jr is included.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIGw82VEA0Y
It is also, of course, why that selfish barsteward Trump has worked so hard to delay that aid. After Kabul (and I agree with the comments about that downthread) another foreign military disaster would be fatal to Biden.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating
I agree that these are not winning scores.
I trust them to make the right decisions for themselves on that.
2) Which is more legendary - @TSE modesty or the quiet seriousness of his shoes?
3) How many @SeanT are there?
4) Why do we not let @malcolmg have cash strength turnip juice before the sun is over the yard arm?
5) Why does @NickPalmer own an internet?
In this case, Trump is doing well in the swing states. Florida has been showing a steady lead for Trump, for example.
Perhaps some twist on the Northamptonshire/Lincolnshire border (look it up), a goat, and Monty Hall?
When it comes to “places” in general France does a really good job of preserving its beautiful villages and scenic spots and the like. The problem is they are too diligent in their preservations. They primp and trim and tweak and install a pretty little kiosk selling lavender soap, and somehow in that process the essence is wiped away - like restoring an artwork and removing the patina. The patina is where the Noom is; like the nutrition in potato skins
Look at Locronan in Brittany. The first place I visited on this trip. Really really pretty but so manicured it had lost all noom. It was like a stage set - indeed it has been used as such for multiple movies, including Polanskis Tess
However I have remembered another place in France with majorly high Noominess. The Plantagenet tombs of fontevraud abbey when seen at midnight, slightly drunk. Spellbinding
Intriguingly fontevraud was also a leper house and the Nazis used it as a prison and execution ground: supporting my new theory that for maximum Noom you want some human suffering, too
https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/the-bleatings-of-a-sorry-scapegoat-lady-susans-pity-party/
If UK polls were showing Labour a couple of points ahead of the Tories but with some constituency polls showing strong leads for them, we'd all be very confident the lead would disappear come election time and the government would be returned comfortably.
However, this is the US not the UK. There's evidence of swingback in previous second term elections but I've no idea if the dynamics favour it now. Or indeed if US pollsters incorporate swingback of undecideds into their models like some UK ones do.