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Actual pew research by Pew Research – politicalbetting.com
Actual pew research by Pew Research – politicalbetting.com
How many people go to church weekly?Surveys say it's about 1 in 5 Americans. Cell phone tracker data say it's actually closer to 1 in 20 Americans. Fascinating new working paper!https://t.co/T7Hh4Ucj1w pic.twitter.com/pLmlVe1J6V
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Look at Australia. If you arrive there by boat, they send you off to an off-shore processing facility. If your application is successful, you come to Australia. If it is unsuccessful, you are shipped back to your country of origin.
The UK's Rwanda scheme is completely different. People are being sent to Rwanda to claim asylum there. The Rwandan government recieves money from the UK, but it is the job of the Rwandan government to process refugees, to house them if their applications are successful, and to deport them if they are not.
This rather limits the appetite of the Rwandans for more than a small number of refugees. (Let us not forget that Kgali has about a tenth the population of London.) And it increases the likelihood of successful appeals against deportation to Rwanda.
I don't understand why the UK is not implementing an Australian-type process. Sure, it would cost more to implement. But those people being processed would remain the responsibility of the UK, which would mean that it was significantly easier to implement, that it could scale properly, and that the likelihood of successful judicial appeals would be close to zero.
One of my little obsessions is mechanical keyboards, and specifically low profile mechanical keyboards. And I've just got a new one, and it is absolutely fantastic. It's called the Lofree Flow. And it is *incredibly* nice to type on. While being compact. Highly recommended for anyone who spends their entire day typing.
Labour lead at 16pts
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 43% (-2)
CON: 27% (+2)
REF: 12% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 5% (-)
via
@DeltapollUK
, 19 Apr
SKS enemies please explain.
45/333 is between 1 in 8 and 1 in 7.
Christopher Cash, 29, the researcher, and Christopher Berry, 32, were charged under the Official Secrets Act.
They are accused of giving "articles, notes, documents or information" to a foreign state, the Met Police said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68874822
Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?
There is a definite phenomenon of American Evangelicals who don't go to church. It can be pretty alarming.
In fact, people become even more entrenched in their political views when they stop attending services. Though churches have a reputation in some circles as promoting hyper-politicization, they can be depolarizing institutions. Being part of a religious community often forces people to get along with others—including others with different political views—and it may channel people’s efforts into charitable work or forms of community outreach that have little to do with politics. Leaving the community removes those moderating forces, opening the door to extremism.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/christianity-religion-america-church-polarization/675215/
As well as the loss of socialisation, there's the loss of contact with the teachings of that bloke who was nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be to be nice to people for a change.
You know, feeding the hungry, giving drinks to the thirsty, welcoming the stranger, that sort of thing.
Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’
Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director
An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.
Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.
The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0
Conservative 20% (-2)
Reform 14% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
Green 6% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)
Redfield / Wilton
Changes +/- 14 April
LAB: 43% (-2)
CON: 27% (+2)
RFM: 12% (+1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.
Missed opportunity.
But the Rwandans haven't signed up for that. According to Migration Observatory, which is pretty reliable, they've agreed to take a couple of hundred.
So, we're talking about a would be asylum seeker having a one in 400 chance of going there? If that. Would that really move the needle?
And this is why it doesn't look like a serious policy.
This one (Deltapoll) has a combined Refcon score of 39%. That’s on the way to being respectable and the highest I’ve seen for a long time. But the R&W score is 34%, one of the lowest in what’s been a fairly stable picture.
LLG in those two are 57% and 61%.
Check out so-called congressional record of VS, for example:
> 2022 - Spartz called the . . . Russian invasion of Ukraine "a genocide of the Ukrainian people by a crazy man". Spartz was one of the first US officials to call Russian actions "war crimes". At the time of the invasion, Spartz had family still living in Ukraine, including her grandmother, who was living in Chernihiv, which was under siege by Russia.
> 2024 > Spartz voted against a crucial $60 billion aid package for Ukraine[66], shortly after being accused by a primary challenger of prioritizing aid to Ukraine over domestic Republican priorities including the border wall.[67] Her vote against the U.S. aid for Ukraine came just three days after a Russian missile strike on Chernihiv, where her family [once] lived, killed 18 civilians and injured 78
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Spartz
The laser etching trick is seriously good.
https://twitter.com/andrewmccalip/status/1781674872344809939
OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
The fantasy being sold with the Rwanda plan is zero refugees, or at least zero + token numbers taken with great fanfare so Britain can feel good about itself.
Given that the plan started with Johnson, the fantasy plan was always going to be more attractive than a realistic one.
Brilliant line! Probably bollocks but brilliant nonetheless.
So the clock starts ticking on day 1 of the new regime. Say that’s next week. Someone arrives and gets taken to hospital / reception centre. Someone needs to establish who they are or claim to be and if they’re claiming asylum or just a French citizen who got lost on a sailing trip or a bog standard illegal migrant with no asylum claim who would not be in the scope of Rwanda. They presumably also need to check the individual is of sound mind, fit to travel, not carrying a communicable disease, not a wanted criminal, not a minor (what’s the cutoff age?)
If they are an asylum seeker then the lawyers get involved. And there will need to be sufficient home office staff assigned who aren’t already busy with the pre-Rwanda backlog. Only after that - and the legal process will be slower for the first few because it’s new - can the admin and paperwork start, the flight scheduling, accommodation sorted etc etc.
I can’t realistically see flights taking off with freshly minted new Rwanda transferees for several months at best. Surely not before an election.
Why would anybody want to be a prole?
Namely "British General Election Campaigns, 1830 - 2019" which consists of essays by various authors on each of the 50 GEs covered.
Reviews are rather mixed (some essays better than others, and lack of central theme being main objections). However, yours truly is looking forward to this timely work . . . warts & all.
SKS fans please explain
The individual is a representative of a campaigning group and a history of active intervention like this - kind of equivalent to a Peter Tatchell figure.
He was definitely looking for an “incident” actively and looking to film it. But the police then walked right into his trap in a remarkably cackhanded way.
Having seen more of the video and the context I’ve changed my mind on the police behaviour. It was incompetence rather than anything akin to taking sides.
https://twitter.com/DSFireUpdates/status/1628394515563270146?lang=en-GB
I’m not shocked.
I would have been shocked if they had been honest and truthful.
RIght now you're like a Scot Nat using a subsample of 9 people in Inverkeithing as proof that there's proof of a 20% swing to the SNP.
Of the migrants interviewed as part of a vox pop I saw today, one said if he gets taken to Rwanda he will just journey to the UK again, another said his country of origin was right next to Rwanda (so why would he not just go home), another seemed understandably distressed at the possibility of being sent there. They won't stay in Rwanda.
I also think they won't continue to come in the same numbers if enough are sent to Rwanda. So that throws those numbers out totally.
G voters wouldnt touch SKS with a barge pole or should that be poll!
And unlike in the past Greens are standing in every seat in GE2024
I have watched the Lady Chatterley's tv show featuring Sean Bean though.
With same logic applying to Maryland & New York (just above thin light-blue line) and to Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi & Oklahoma (just above line) adding Native Americans to the mix in OK.
Utah is it's own Private Idaho (along with actual southern ID) due to Church Formerly Called Mormon.
Rwanda will become a byword for disastrous, self-destructive policymaking. Which is better than being one for a genocide I suppose.
Sunak failing to scrap it on day one was arguably the first sign he was doomed.
There was a rally in NYC by "Christian Nationalist" who were overtly, rabidly anti-Semitic.
When one speaker proclaimed, "the only good Jew is a dead Jew!" a passerby shouted back, "I'm a good Jew and I'm alive!"
So NYC cops arrested HIM, on grounds of creating a public disturbance or disturbing the peace or somesuch.
Caused considerable adverse comment, and political hassle for Mayor La Guardia, who was famously anti-Nazi and pro-Jewish. Indeed FLaG he WAS Jewish, on his mother's side, but did NOT publicize the fact. Though he (also famously) did offer to debate at least one Jewish opponent in Yiddish, which he spoke but the other fellow did NOT.
However the policeman wasn’t the sharpest knife in the box.
1) A Northerner
2) Work
3)
I have a classAh I see your point.
May 3rd to 6th - Romantic getaway
You know the joke about when Mike went on holiday...
And these Muslims you talk about were joined by thousands of Jews, Christians, Agnostics, Atheists and peace activists but not many crinkly Scottish racists.
Rwanda is smaller than Wales + Cumbria, already has a population of 14 million after 1 million had been murdered in the 1990s, therefore has the 5th highest population density in the world, has a per capita GDP of £2500, and is significantly fairly full of mountains.
There is no way they can absorb very large numbers.
Sunak is nuts.
Never have I more regretted buying/wearing genuine Burberry products.
Congrats TSE
Or, to be fair, the opposite.
One OUGHT to be able to do it.
BUT!
Have personally met Iain Dale, who indeed had enough lack-of-judgement, to give yours truly the time of day!
Also advised him to visit Wilmington, Delaware during Joe Biden's last US Senate campaign.
Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.
Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!
An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).
https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248
Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?
As for calling the judge "M'Ludd" most American judges and juries would like it . . . but would be disappointed IF the Brit law-botherer was NOT sporting a funny wig a la "Rumpole of the Bailey" (which was a HUGE hit on PBS back in the day).
Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13335685/Child-rapist-jailed-attacking-teenage-girl-allowed-stay-UK-arguing-deported-Eritrea-harm-mental-health.html
Not for the first time, Redfield & Wilton and Deltapoll go in completely different directions on a Monday evening.
Deltapoll's numbers are almost identical to those of We Think and 27% is a common upper plateau for the Conservatives from this pollster. The changes are all within margin of error. R&W is equally consistent having the Conservatives in the 20-24% range since mid January.
Perhaps instrad of the "usual" version of the bloc voters, we should try CON/LD/Ref and Green vs Labour. With R&W it's 52-43, with Deltapoll it's 53-43 so the anti-Labour id swirling round the four main alternatives.
In 2019, the numbers were 62-33 so it's a straight line 10% swing however you want to dress it up.
Not my cup of tea, but the right to peaceful protest and assembly should be core British freedoms.
Only a moron could could imagine people = anti-semitism, so go F**k yourself Your assumption that everyone there is a muslim confirms you are a real nutjob and extremely one sided.