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OJ Simpson can’t win here! – politicalbetting.com

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  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,978
    edited April 2024
    Dear Eek
    If you really think that if Rayner has to resign, that it won't affect a single vote. ... then you are seriously misguided.
  • Demographically a growing proportion of young people don't drink alcohol, which is disappointing. I hope that reverses in the future.
    Demographic changes explian much of this. Muslims dont drink and i dont think indians drink much either.
  • Israeli state television confirms that the Israeli war cabinet has decided to attack Iran.

    https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1779571153071161568
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    ohnotnow said:

    Nightnurse + Buckfast == An 'Airdrie Cocktail'
    If you lived in Airdrie you would be having that for breakfast. Getting through the day would be impossible otherwise.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    Pubs are about the only type of institution that benefit from being made an Asset of Community Value (ACV) as there is a fighting chance that people will be able to continue to run them. But not usually.

    As a favourite Daily Mash headline had it: People disappointed that their local pub closed that they never went to.
    We live in a village now.. cant say I really like it much, but it's near the in laws and they help out a lot with the kids. Half of the shops are empty, or shut half the time... I say to my missus we should use them, but lo and behold there are at least 15 Amazon deliveries a week... she'll be sad when the High St is even more of a ghost village. The premium paid in these little shops are what keeps the village alive. We also never go to any of the three pubs or two restaurants, as whenever the in laws have both kids overnight, it cant be wasted with a hangover
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Demographic changes explian much of this. Muslims dont drink and i dont think indians drink much either.
    You're taking the piss. Punjabis put it away like there's no tomorrow!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    viewcode said:

    @isam, I sent you a PM asking if you could review a prepublication version of an article. You're the most knowledgable about gambling and its history and you are well placed to check the historical parts. You don't have to if you don't want to, and you are perfectly free to turn it down, just let me know.

    I will have a look, but I am not sure I know lots about the history of gambling to be honest
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Lord wean me off endlessly and self-indulgently blathering on PB, but not yet.
    Implicit in Leon's PB commentary is an act of generosity, an invitation to take succour in the universality of suffering, to recognize ourselves in Leon's funhouse mirror of the disentegrating self. In these words today, as Leon makes a kind of uneasy peace with @BatteryCorrectHorse and @IanB2, we sense that Leon - or is it @MartinDay? - has glimpsed something like the secret arithmetic of existence: he himself is a mosaic of the self, perpetually rearranged, by identity laid over identity. The palimpsest of the persona

    It's a profound and hard-won grace note, one that elevates Leon's utterances above the mundanities of a provincial quack like @foxy or some bore like @Benpointless: here we have a solipsistic self-reckoning which evolves into something expansive: a Blakeian testament to the way our journeys through heaven and hell just might be the price of admission for true aliveness. By the end of this thread, one senses Leon will have gifted us indelible proof that even in the realm of psychic collapse, everywhere there is the chance for rebirth: another name, another sockpuppet, yet another Leon
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216

    Demographic changes explian much of this. Muslims dont drink and i dont think indians drink much either.
    Prohibition in 4 out of India's 29 states, including Narendra Modi's stronghold of Gujarat.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_prohibition_in_India
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Israeli state television confirms that the Israeli war cabinet has decided to attack Iran.

    https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1779571153071161568

    Fucking idiots.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited April 2024
    DavidL said:

    If you lived in Airdrie you would be having that for breakfast. Getting through the day would be impossible otherwise.
    Witn an admixture of Orange juice, don't forget.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Nigelb said:

    Fucking idiots.
    Jesus fucking Christ. Say it ain't so

    The world may burn for Bibi's career
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Leon said:

    Implicit in Leon's PB commentary is an act of generosity, an invitation to take succour in the universality of suffering, to recognize ourselves in Leon's funhouse mirror of the disentegrating self. In these words today, as Leon makes a kind of uneasy peace with @BatteryCorrectHorse and @IanB2, we sense that Leon - or is it @MartinDay? - has glimpsed something like the secret arithmetic of existence: he himself is a mosaic of the self, perpetually rearranged, by identity laid over identity. The palimpsest of the persona

    It's a profound and hard-won grace note, one that elevates Leon's utterances above the mundanities of a provincial quack like @foxy or some bore like @Benpointless: here we have a solipsistic self-reckoning which evolves into something expansive: a Blakeian testament to the way our journeys through heaven and hell just might be the price of admission for true aliveness. By the end of this thread, one senses Leon will have gifted us indelible proof that even in the realm of psychic collapse, everywhere there is the chance for rebirth: another name, another sockpuppet, yet another Leon
    I have just finally got around to watching the Barbie movie which I enjoyed very much. This reads like a part of the script that got cut.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,800
    edited April 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Fucking idiots.
    It is more nuanced then that

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hamas-iran-latest-sky-news-blog-12978800
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    isam said:

    I will have a look, but I am not sure I know lots about the history of gambling to be honest
    Thank you :)
  • TOPPING said:

    Pubs are about the only type of institution that benefit from being made an Asset of Community Value (ACV) as there is a fighting chance that people will be able to continue to run them. But not usually.

    As a favourite Daily Mash headline had it: People disappointed that their local pub closed that they never went to.
    It's a useful tip though. If you've got a decent local, apply to the Council via a community group of ACV status. It does at least create a hurdle for developers.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471

    It is more nuanced then that

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hamas-iran-latest-sky-news-blog-12978800
    It is indeed probably more nuanced than “fucking idiots”. But not that much.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Carnyx said:

    Witn an admixture of Orange juice, don't forget.
    You wouldn't want to dilute it. Reality could break through and that would be hideous.
  • Leon said:

    Jesus fucking Christ. Say it ain't so

    The world may burn for Bibi's career
    See my link (8.57pm) which explains it in less dramatic terms
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    DavidL said:

    I have just finally got around to watching the Barbie movie which I enjoyed very much. This reads like a part of the script that got cut.
    It’s nicely written (the Leon screed, and Barbie).
  • It's useful to distinguish between different types of pub - at one end, proper boozers for old men like me, and some young 'uns, who go to drink and not to eat; at the other, pubs that are really just glorified restaurants.

    It's tougher for the first kind, because the price of beer etc. is now so much higher than supermarket booze, and those without much money are being priced out. They really can't afford to raise prices further, so it's tricky for them to raise bar staff wages. So the answer has to be: reduce the price of pub ales and lager and narrow the differential with shop booze.

    Or adopt the Scottish approach of minimum unit pricing for alcohol.
    As well as narrowing the gap between supermarket and pub prices, there is no gap between local licensed grocer prices and supermarkets.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    It is more nuanced then that

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hamas-iran-latest-sky-news-blog-12978800
    i.e. Mossad will be continuing to take out nuclear scientists and IRG commanders when they get the opportunity. Everyone happy - apart from Iran obvs.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    ohnotnow said:



    Nimby's moved into the village and then spent all their time complaining about the outrageous noise of the Church bells and the smell of beer from the Local.

    See also people moving to 'quaint' Cornish fishing villages then complaining that the fishing boats weren't quite in keeping with what they imagined.

    Interesting discussion. It's not only in Britain, of course. There was much hilarity in Switzerland about a woman who moved to an Alpine village and then sued her neighbour because of the disutrbance noisy cow bells. A judge ruled straight-facedly that the noise of cow bells was an inherent risk in deciding to live in an Alpine village.

    With most people in cities, though, the community aspect doesn't normally arise. When I was living in London there were a dozen pubs within easy reach, and if I went into any of them I'd have been surprised to see someone I knew. Some work cultures generate a tradition that people head over to a particular local after work, but I think that's now the exception rather than the rule?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    So the west now sits and waits to see whether Israel decides to embark on a course of action that could lead to devastating consequences.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    It would be great if the Jews and Muslims could postpone doomsday til next year coz I have some really nice free foreign travel coming up. Also I have kids.

    Asking for 8 billion friends
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    rkrkrk said:

    I reckon also people live on average further (both in distance and time) from their mates. Bit sad to think about to be honest.
    True. Though that may be time of life dependent: if I mapped where my friends lived, I reckon I now - at the age of 48 - live on average closer to my friends than at any age since primary school. Reason being, many of my closest friendships now are (indirectly at least) driven again by geography - because they're dads of kids at my daughters' primary school.

    I've sketched a graph which I think is a not atypical middle class existence of age against average distance away of friends. At first, your friends are basically kids of your parents' friends, but gradually you get your own; at 11, your circle widens (my school had a large-ish catchment area); between 18 and 21 while your friends are suddenly a long way away you have new, surprisingly close-by people that your drink with; then at 21 suddenly everyone is miles away. But gradually the average distance decreases as you get to know people closer by; this really kicks in when your kids go to primary school.




    I have, to my surprise, plenty of people within walking distance I would go drinking with if I could find the time to do so. (Sadly, the pubs round here don't exactly tempt you over the threshold with delicious beer and salubrious surroundings, though it's significantly better than it was ten years ago. Though @ManchesterKurt may disagree!)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Nigelb said:

    Fucking idiots.
    Where a neurotic obsession with not appearing weak ends up being a weakness.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    Leon said:

    It would be great if the Jews and Muslims could postpone doomsday til next year coz I have some really nice free foreign travel coming up. Also I have kids.

    Asking for 8 billion friends

    One set of penis-mutilators versus another...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    DavidL said:

    I have just finally got around to watching the Barbie movie which I enjoyed very much. This reads like a part of the script that got cut.
    You can see why they cut it tbf.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644

    Interesting discussion. It's not only in Britain, of course. There was much hilarity in Switzerland about a woman who moved to an Alpine village and then sued her neighbour because of the disutrbance noisy cow bells. A judge ruled straight-facedly that the noise of cow bells was an inherent risk in deciding to live in an Alpine village.

    With most people in cities, though, the community aspect doesn't normally arise. When I was living in London there were a dozen pubs within easy reach, and if I went into any of them I'd have been surprised to see someone I knew. Some work cultures generate a tradition that people head over to a particular local after work, but I think that's now the exception rather than the rule?
    My wife's uncle, in his early fifties, moved from inner London to Suffolk. He chose the small town based on the pub. Decided it was going to be important to him. With his usual cheery approach to things, on his first night, went round introducing himself to everyone in the pub. Figured a few would think him a loony but who cares? He was right; within months, the drinkers in this pub were his closest friends.

    I rather envy him both the situation and the confidence to make it happen.
  • Israeli state television confirms that the Israeli war cabinet has decided to attack Iran.

    https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/1779571153071161568

    If it were an existing poster saying this, then I'd say good. Hope it's all out war and regime change in Iran.

    Since it's someone with 9 posts to their name registering on the weekend, then I'm sorry but I'm sceptical. Will wait for a legit news source to confirm the good news.
  • nico679 said:

    So the west now sits and waits to see whether Israel decides to embark on a course of action that could lead to devastating consequences.

    If Israel hadn't been attacked first, none of this would be happening.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The west are gullible idiots . Netenyahu has played them .
  • Remember folks - Israel has no problem with an Operation Samson scenario if that's what it takes. And when I say "Israel" I really mean Bibi. There is real pressure on him to plan an election later this year where (a) he will lose and (b) he will go to jail. Better to push over the pillars and bring destruction down on everyone...
  • nico679 said:

    The west are gullible idiots . Netenyahu has played them .

    Netanyahu is leading a country that was attacked first.

    But all you do is insult him and his nation.

    What should he have done instead? Turn the other cheek? Invite another attack?
  • Leon said:

    It would be great if the Jews and Muslims could postpone doomsday til next year coz I have some really nice free foreign travel coming up. Also I have kids.

    Asking for 8 billion friends

    If you were a jew surrounded by enemies on all sides with seemingly most of the world against you you would be liable to do some pretty irrational things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    If we all survive that long, this has the potential to trash Trump’s reputation with a fair number of his supporters.

    Small-time investors in Trump’s Truth Social reckon with stock collapse
    Some Trump supporters who invested in his social media company have seen their share values plunge -— and see it as a test of faith
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/14/truth-social-investors-faith-trump/
  • If it were an existing poster saying this, then I'd say good. Hope it's all out war and regime change in Iran.

    Since it's someone with 9 posts to their name registering on the weekend, then I'm sorry but I'm sceptical. Will wait for a legit news source to confirm the good news.
    Ok hows this.

    Hebrew Channel 14: The cabinet decided to attack Iran tonight
    https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1779602928858239078
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Netanyahu is leading a country that was attacked first.

    But all you do is insult him and his nation.

    What should he have done instead? Turn the other cheek? Invite another attack?
    I’m not insulting Israel . But Netenyahu is a nutjob who will do anything to remain in post.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,538

    Ok hows this.

    Hebrew Channel 14: The cabinet decided to attack Iran tonight
    https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1779602928858239078
    No doubt Iran's many friends and allies will spring to their defence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    edited April 2024

    Radical thought - is pb (and it’s ilk) one of the reasons pubs are dying? We sit here, randomly chatting rubbish with others, all the time NOT heading the pub to chat rubbish with others. It’s so much easier to get social interaction (of a kind) online, and add in the price of booze in pubs vs Aldi/Lidl and you see why they close.

    And we have our own in-house boor, slumped half-cut at the virtual bar, vomiting a never-ending stream of drunken drivel about whatever is his latest obsession over anyone foolish enough to look in his direction. How more authentic could we get?
  • nico679 said:

    I’m not insulting Israel . But Netenyahu is a nutjob who will do anything to remain in post.
    THIS. Netanyahu is a gangster. He is not Israel. I absolutely support their right to live in peace and security as a nation. That is not remotely the same thing as giving Bibi a free pass to do whatever it takes to keep his criminal arse out of jail.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    a

    Interesting discussion. It's not only in Britain, of course. There was much hilarity in Switzerland about a woman who moved to an Alpine village and then sued her neighbour because of the disutrbance noisy cow bells. A judge ruled straight-facedly that the noise of cow bells was an inherent risk in deciding to live in an Alpine village.

    With most people in cities, though, the community aspect doesn't normally arise. When I was living in London there were a dozen pubs within easy reach, and if I went into any of them I'd have been surprised to see someone I knew. Some work cultures generate a tradition that people head over to a particular local after work, but I think that's now the exception rather than the rule?
    IIRC she kept going until the locals voted that she couldn’t have citizenship.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/01/14/swiss-citizenship-woman-denied-cowbells/96398518/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455

    No doubt Iran's many friends and allies will spring to their defence.
    It's a bit difficult to sympathise with either side IMO.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    IanB2 said:

    And we have our own in-house boor, slumped half-cut at the virtual bar, vomiting a never-ending stream of drunken drivel about whatever is his latest obsession over anyone foolish enough to look in his direction. How more authentic could we get?
    Every village has its idiot. It's an old tradition.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    IanB2 said:

    And we have our own in-house boor, slumped half-cut at the virtual bar, vomiting a never-ending stream of drunken drivel about whatever is his latest obsession over anyone foolish enough to look in his direction. How more authentic could we get?
    If there’s one thing more astonishing than my endless capacity for narcissism it’s your endless capacity for pathetic friendless whining, like a slapped and lonely four year old
  • nico679 said:

    I’m not insulting Israel . But Netenyahu is a nutjob who will do anything to remain in post.
    So what is Palestine's excuse for not recognising Israel's right to security before Bibi came to power?
  • .

    THIS. Netanyahu is a gangster. He is not Israel. I absolutely support their right to live in peace and security as a nation. That is not remotely the same thing as giving Bibi a free pass to do whatever it takes to keep his criminal arse out of jail.
    I know you're not doing this, but others are, Israel and Bibi should not be conflated.

    Supporting Israel is not the same as supporting Bibi.

    The UK in WWII was led by a national unity government and ended the war with an election that saw those who were opposition prior to the war win the election.

    Israel is led by a national unity government and hopefully the next election sees Bibi defeated and then imprisoned.

    But first things first. Israel needs to win it's war. Hamas needs to be completely destroyed. Iran needs regime change and the destruction of their nuclear program.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562

    Another twist to the wfh controversies. A friend has started working for a private fee-paying school which has no premises at all. Both staff and pupils are online from home. The pupils are a mixture of people who for some reason cannot attend a physical class - either mental or physical health issues or simply highly mobile parents - and the teacher:pupil ratio is amazing, for a relatively modest £7K/year. The teachers love it as they can combine it with a full home life. Obviously lack of social interaction is a big snag for the kids, which they may or may not be able to make up in their home environment, but as they literally *can't* attend a school it offers an alternative to home lessons from parents. The school has 1000 pupils and aims to recruit 2000 more - the model is basically scalable.

    Should the public sector offer something like this?

    What about sport? Drama? Music? Technology? Chemistry experiments? And so on.

    The curriculum must necessarily be restricted. If it is the only option to no schooling at all for certain types of pupils, I can see some value. But why would you want to expand it beyond such a cohort. Pupils will be missing out on an awful lot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Foxy said:

    Every village has its idiot. It's an old tradition.
    Used to be one of @malcolmg's favourite lines, that some village was missing its idiot when he got a post he disapproved of. But @Leon is not an idiot.
  • DavidL said:

    Used to be one of @malcolmg's favourite lines, that some village was missing its idiot when he got a post he disapproved of. But @Leon is not an idiot.
    No, he's a village instead.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771

    Another twist to the wfh controversies. A friend has started working for a private fee-paying school which has no premises at all. Both staff and pupils are online from home. The pupils are a mixture of people who for some reason cannot attend a physical class - either mental or physical health issues or simply highly mobile parents - and the teacher:pupil ratio is amazing, for a relatively modest £7K/year. The teachers love it as they can combine it with a full home life. Obviously lack of social interaction is a big snag for the kids, which they may or may not be able to make up in their home environment, but as they literally *can't* attend a school it offers an alternative to home lessons from parents. The school has 1000 pupils and aims to recruit 2000 more - the model is basically scalable.

    Should the public sector offer something like this?

    I wouldn't be surprised if it did already, not widely known to many of us.

    The public sector offers boarding schools, for example. My niece (with a statement) went to a weekly boarding school for a couple of years after having gone to a private day school, after she was bullied in a state school which could not deal with it.

    Attending a school a couple of hours away was a crucial element in her gaining self-reliance and an appropriate measure of independence.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 2024

    So what is Palestine's excuse for not recognising Israel's right to security before Bibi came to power?
    What was the ANC's excuse for not recognising white supremacy's right to security in South Africa?

    And of course the ethnic supremacist occupation regime in Palestine has always recognised Palestine's right to exist, to be secure, to defend itself. They bend over backwards to help, because they love peace and ethnic co-existence so much. Listen to "Hallelujah" from Eurovision - it's so peaceful.

    The only arguments Israel has in support of itself are obvious lying shit.

    Netanyahu is a distraction. If it wasn't him, it would be some other leader.

    As for calling him "Bibi", maybe call Ariel Sharon "Arik", and why not refer to "Addy" and "Benny"?

    PS Anyone who thinks Netanyahu will ever be locked up in a jail cell is living in cloud cuckoo land.
  • Evening all. First post in a few weeks after another sojourn in hospital. Catching up on 'events' and have seen the discussion between @TOPPING @StillWaters et al re. Rayner.

    As it stands, I don't see what laws Rayner has broken. She's in a position similar to (but not exactly the same as) that in which my brother found himself. I'll explain:

    My brother was married with 3 children. He and his wife separated and divorced. He bought a flat which became his home and which was his children's home when they were with him.

    >> Rayner's argument has always been that her circumstances were different because she had a child from a previous relationship and it was his home as much as it was her own.

    My brother met somebody and they began a relationship. They settled down and divided their time between their respective properties. My brother's home was a his flat. That's where he was registered to vote. That's where he paid his bills, etc.

    >> Again, no different here from Rayner in her arguments.

    My brother and his partner had a child. The child was registered at his partner's address (because when you register a birth it asks for the mother's address at the time of birth.

    >> Given that Rayner went on to re-register the birth at her husband's address, one assumes that she gave her own address at the time. It would make no sense to not include the father's details but to use his address.

    My brother and his partner didn't live together full time. As he had his 3 children from his first marriage for three days every week, he spent time in his flat.

    My brother and his partner got married. It's a legal requirement to re-register a birth to include the father's details if the parents either marry or enter into a civil partnership.

    My brother and his new wife reregistered the birth to include his details. The addresses remained the same. My brother's legal/electoral/tax address was his flat. My new sister-in-law's legal/electoral/tax address remained her home. All above board and completely legal.

    They maintained two properties and spent time at both (not least of all because it took time for my brother's first 3 children to get used to the new arrangements). When my brother sold his flat, no CGT was payable. At the same time, my sister-in-law sold her house. No CGT was payable.

    It is possible that Rayner's circumstances were similar to (but not identical to) those of my brother.

    As to the electoral law issue... the point remains. If it was her legal home for tax and electoral purposes, there may not be an issue at all.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    Cyclefree said:

    It's not your site.

    It's the variety which makes this site worthwhile.
    One could argue that the @Leon End of the Pier Show qualifies as "variety".

    Where's his all the right words, but in the wrong order?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Cyclefree said:

    What about sport? Drama? Music? Technology? Chemistry experiments? And so on.

    The curriculum must necessarily be restricted. If it is the only option to no schooling at all for certain types of pupils, I can see some value. But why would you want to expand it beyond such a cohort. Pupils will be missing out on an awful lot.
    We already offer a similar service.
    However. If it's sport, drama, music or chemistry experiments, well, you don't get them even if you come to school these days.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269
    After my concerns about JFK immigration (last time: 2.5 hours) this time it took about 5 minutes. Reelect Joe Biden!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269
    Leon said:

    This whole grotesque Israel/Muslim neurosis-turned-world-war reminds me what a remarkable thing was achieved in Northern Ireland. There we had the same endless centuries-old grievances, the same embittered generations, decade after decade, 300 years of violence. Famine and bombs, murders and Black and Tans, Bloody Sunday and Warrington

    Yet it DID end. Humans woke up and said, This doesn't have to be. And now Ireland and Britain are at peace. it is sometimes grumpy, but it is peace

    Well done to all that did that

    It certainly didn't involve the British Army declaring it would wipe out the IRA even if that involved killing 30,000 innocent Catholic civilians...
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    DavidL said:

    Used to be one of @malcolmg's favourite lines, that some village was missing its idiot when he got a post he disapproved of. But @Leon is not an idiot.
    A village idiot isn't necessarily an idiot:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhDJxEPRDek
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited April 2024
    Interesting BBC piece on Iran's various proxy wars on Israel and other countries via terror groups, and directly.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68811276

    They don't go so far as to point out that Iran is a far more significant contributor to Middle East instability than Israel and that the Iranian Govt cannot accept peace in the ME, but unusually clear.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712

    Evening all. First post in a few weeks after another sojourn in hospital. Catching up on 'events' and have seen the discussion between @TOPPING @StillWaters et al re. Rayner.

    As it stands, I don't see what laws Rayner has broken. She's in a position similar to (but not exactly the same as) that in which my brother found himself. I'll explain:

    My brother was married with 3 children. He and his wife separated and divorced. He bought a flat which became his home and which was his children's home when they were with him.

    >> Rayner's argument has always been that her circumstances were different because she had a child from a previous relationship and it was his home as much as it was her own.

    My brother met somebody and they began a relationship. They settled down and divided their time between their respective properties. My brother's home was a his flat. That's where he was registered to vote. That's where he paid his bills, etc.

    >> Again, no different here from Rayner in her arguments.

    My brother and his partner had a child. The child was registered at his partner's address (because when you register a birth it asks for the mother's address at the time of birth.

    >> Given that Rayner went on to re-register the birth at her husband's address, one assumes that she gave her own address at the time. It would make no sense to not include the father's details but to use his address.

    My brother and his partner didn't live together full time. As he had his 3 children from his first marriage for three days every week, he spent time in his flat.

    My brother and his partner got married. It's a legal requirement to re-register a birth to include the father's details if the parents either marry or enter into a civil partnership.

    My brother and his new wife reregistered the birth to include his details. The addresses remained the same. My brother's legal/electoral/tax address was his flat. My new sister-in-law's legal/electoral/tax address remained her home. All above board and completely legal.

    They maintained two properties and spent time at both (not least of all because it took time for my brother's first 3 children to get used to the new arrangements). When my brother sold his flat, no CGT was payable. At the same time, my sister-in-law sold her house. No CGT was payable.

    It is possible that Rayner's circumstances were similar to (but not identical to) those of my brother.

    As to the electoral law issue... the point remains. If it was her legal home for tax and electoral purposes, there may not be an issue at all.

    The electoral law thing is irrelevant anyway as there is a 12 month limit on prosecutions.
  • Fffs said:

    Hang on…

    New arrivals creating extra demand also leads to more customers per pub. Why was that unsustainable? The number of pubs certainly didn't increase - it's been falling steadily since about 2002.
    Not if the new arrivals don't like pubs.

    They'll increase other demand, but not pub-demand.
  • The electoral law thing is irrelevant anyway as there is a 12 month limit on prosecutions.
    Quite. I read that earlier but didn't bother mentioning it. Cheers @rottenborough
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 2024
    MattW said:

    Interesting BBC piece on Iran's various proxy wars on Israel and other countries via terror groups, and directly.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68811276

    They don't go so far as to point out that Iran is a far more significant contributor to Middle East instability than Israel and that the Iranian Govt cannot accept peace in the ME, but unusually clear.

    First Rottenborough says Trump seems to be a Hamas supporter, and now you moan that the BBC is insufficiently pro-Israeli.

    It's probably Clintonian pizza eaters and Kenyan-born Muslim Barack Obama, all in the pay of ISIS, who are behind it all - stabbing peace-loving Israel in the back.

    In Gaza, they're only dropping peppermints and daisychains:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3bVJAe8xVY

    Tip: genocide is wrong.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Dear Eek
    If you really think that if Rayner has to resign, that it won't affect a single vote. ... then you are seriously misguided.

    Rayner won't have to resign - exactly what crime has see committed.

    And you have to remember that Rayner is the same as Two Jags - there to attract a particular set of voters...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Serbia to buy French fighter jets in pivot away from Russia

    One of Moscow’s strongest allies in the Balkans is purchasing more European and US weapons
    https://www.ft.com/content/fa26d185-6b54-481a-b5b8-1ff41a0ab724

    Not wire sure what to make of this.
    Other than that Russia doesn't have the capacity to export new fighters.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    eek said:

    Well they can but as the applicant won't have filled it in, the form isn't valid....
    Dont talk bollocks I have applied via agencies where a form is required.....they want to interview me after the agency has put my cv in front of them I fill in the form and sign it digitally....it really isnt rocket science unless you are a public sector person
  • After my concerns about JFK immigration (last time: 2.5 hours) this time it took about 5 minutes. Reelect Joe Biden!

    Told you!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497

    If there's no shortfall, why are the pubs even around here in London constantly short staffed? This has only become an issue since Brexit.
    Perhaps is because no one wishes to deal with the rude barbarity of the london clientele?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Nigelb said:

    Serbia to buy French fighter jets in pivot away from Russia

    One of Moscow’s strongest allies in the Balkans is purchasing more European and US weapons
    https://www.ft.com/content/fa26d185-6b54-481a-b5b8-1ff41a0ab724

    Not wire sure what to make of this.
    Other than that Russia doesn't have the capacity to export new fighters.

    Russia's military exports have been destroyed by its Ukraine adventure. They have, for the most part, been shown to be very poor performers versus other alternatives out there. They have also had their delivery dates turned into "whenever we can" - which effectively means only when they have stopped sending kit to its doom in Ukraine.

    Why would you buy Russian unless they were stupidly cheap?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited April 2024
    Pagan2 said:

    Dont talk bollocks I have applied via agencies where a form is required.....they want to interview me after the agency has put my cv in front of them I fill in the form and sign it digitally....it really isnt rocket science unless you are a public sector person
    For a permanent local authority or civil servant job?

    I don't believe you and remember I have always been talking about public sector work here...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    IanB2 said:

    And we have our own in-house boor, slumped half-cut at the virtual bar, vomiting a never-ending stream of drunken drivel about whatever is his latest obsession over anyone foolish enough to look in his direction. How more authentic could we get?
    Well every pub has a lib dem
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Fuckola. I think Israel is going to do something daft
  • Foxy said:

    Every village has its idiot. It's an old tradition.
    One mans idiot is another mans savant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Excellent piece in the Atlantic Magazine about the Iranian attack and how Netanyahu is very likely to screw up the advantages that it has given him: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-will-netanyahu-do-now/ar-BB1lBbs0

    As President Biden said: take the win.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Growing drumbeat around July election in Westminster this evening.*

    * I’m actually in Blackheath . But you get the drift

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1779578114189722096
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,546

    Another twist to the wfh controversies. A friend has started working for a private fee-paying school which has no premises at all. Both staff and pupils are online from home. The pupils are a mixture of people who for some reason cannot attend a physical class - either mental or physical health issues or simply highly mobile parents - and the teacher:pupil ratio is amazing, for a relatively modest £7K/year. The teachers love it as they can combine it with a full home life. Obviously lack of social interaction is a big snag for the kids, which they may or may not be able to make up in their home environment, but as they literally *can't* attend a school it offers an alternative to home lessons from parents. The school has 1000 pupils and aims to recruit 2000 more - the model is basically scalable.

    Should the public sector offer something like this?

    Whilst it is probably a good alternative to home schooling I think the lack of socialisation would be huge - the aftermath of the pandemic and the (anecdotal) unworldliness of home-schooled kids show us this.

    But yes, for those who cannot or will not attend school physically it would be a good offer.

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    edited April 2024
    eek said:

    For a permanent local authority or civil servant job?

    I don't believe you and remember I have always been talking about public sector work here...
    I have applied for jobs where they have for various reasons required forms to be filled in. Guess what they interviewed first and then said fill in the forms. There is absolutely no reason stopping the public sector doing the same unless they are so anal retentive that everyone has to fill in a form before we can even decide to interview them in which case they are wasteful arseholes.....interview first then even if you decide on a shortlist before final decision then you can interview a 100 decide on 5.

    This is just short sighted public sector wankery masquerading as a relevant process and why most of the private sector treats you with the withering scorn you deserve and thinks you waste our taxes for absolutely no reason
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269
    Leon said:

    I would actually pass a law saying pubs cannot be converted into housing. They can stop being pubs, but then they have to be some other kind of shared open space, for all. Cafe, farm shop, community hall, something that brings people together

    We are all atomised quite enough. This would also stop the hideous Crooked House bollocks of people "accidentally" burning down pubs so they can be demolished and turned into flats

    My cycle to work takes me past the pub that was used to film the outside of the Winchester in Shaun of the Dead. It's been flats for over 15 years. On the other hand, I live a few minutes from London's #1 rated pub by Time Out, and it and several other local hostelries are absolutely thriving. I'm pretty much guaranteed to run into someone I know at them, too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Growing drumbeat around July election in Westminster this evening.*

    * I’m actually in Blackheath . But you get the drift

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1779578114189722096

    Desperation from Team Sunk.
  • Leon said:

    Fuckola. I think Israel is going to do something daft

    Breaking: Israel Minister of Diaspora
    @AmichaiChikli
    suggests that Israel will retaliate by launching hundreds of missiles on Iran:

    “We will treat every missile fired on Israel as if it hit the intended target, and we will retaliate accordingly.”
    10:08 PM · Apr 14, 2024
    ·
    6,265
    Views

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1779617645282603479
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited April 2024
    Leon said:

    It would be great if the Jews and Muslims could postpone doomsday til next year coz I have some really nice free foreign travel coming up. Also I have kids.

    Asking for 8 billion friends

    Iran and Israel will largely just fight it out amongst themselves, sending potshots of drones, missiles and bombs over to each other for a few weeks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,712

    Desperation from Team Sunk.
    Basically: don't come after me on 3rd May because the election will only be eight weeks away so you dont have time.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited April 2024
    Pagan2 said:

    I have applied for jobs where they have for various reasons required forms to be filled in. Guess what they interviewed first and then said fill in the forms. There is absolutely no reason stopping the public sector doing the same unless they are so anal retentive that everyone has to fill in a form before we can even decide to interview them in which case they are wasteful arseholes.....interview first then even if you decide on a shortlist before final decision then you can interview a 100 decide on 5.

    This is just short sighted public sector wankery masquerading as a relevant process and why most of the private sector treats you with the withering scorn you deserve and thinks you waste our taxes for absolutely no reason
    So I'm right - you haven't had a public sector job and haven't got a clue why things are done the way they are in the public sector.

    You may not like it but this Tory Government has been in power 14 years (heck the Tories have been in power 32 of the last 45 years) and the one thing that no Government has done is change the way public sector recruitment is done.

    So

    1) I wonder why they do things the way they do?
    2) Why do you think even this Government hasn't changed the approach?
    3) Yet you know better even though you've provided no evidence to back that up...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422

    Evening all. First post in a few weeks after another sojourn in hospital. Catching up on 'events' and have seen the discussion between @TOPPING @StillWaters et al re. Rayner.

    As it stands, I don't see what laws Rayner has broken. She's in a position similar to (but not exactly the same as) that in which my brother found himself. I'll explain:

    My brother was married with 3 children. He and his wife separated and divorced. He bought a flat which became his home and which was his children's home when they were with him.

    >> Rayner's argument has always been that her circumstances were different because she had a child from a previous relationship and it was his home as much as it was her own.

    My brother met somebody and they began a relationship. They settled down and divided their time between their respective properties. My brother's home was a his flat. That's where he was registered to vote. That's where he paid his bills, etc.

    >> Again, no different here from Rayner in her arguments.

    My brother and his partner had a child. The child was registered at his partner's address (because when you register a birth it asks for the mother's address at the time of birth.

    >> Given that Rayner went on to re-register the birth at her husband's address, one assumes that she gave her own address at the time. It would make no sense to not include the father's details but to use his address.

    My brother and his partner didn't live together full time. As he had his 3 children from his first marriage for three days every week, he spent time in his flat.

    My brother and his partner got married. It's a legal requirement to re-register a birth to include the father's details if the parents either marry or enter into a civil partnership.

    My brother and his new wife reregistered the birth to include his details. The addresses remained the same. My brother's legal/electoral/tax address was his flat. My new sister-in-law's legal/electoral/tax address remained her home. All above board and completely legal.

    They maintained two properties and spent time at both (not least of all because it took time for my brother's first 3 children to get used to the new arrangements). When my brother sold his flat, no CGT was payable. At the same time, my sister-in-law sold her house. No CGT was payable.

    It is possible that Rayner's circumstances were similar to (but not identical to) those of my brother.

    As to the electoral law issue... the point remains. If it was her legal home for tax and electoral purposes, there may not be an issue at all.

    Interesting anecdote, thanks for sharing. I am anything but an expert, but this seems to contradict the Dan Neidle view that a married couple has to have one home for tax purposes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece in the Atlantic Magazine about the Iranian attack and how Netanyahu is very likely to screw up the advantages that it has given him: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-will-netanyahu-do-now/ar-BB1lBbs0

    As President Biden said: take the win.

    The author is preaching to the converted but doesn't really make much of a case against Netanyahu.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Breaking: Israel Minister of Diaspora
    @AmichaiChikli
    suggests that Israel will retaliate by launching hundreds of missiles on Iran:

    “We will treat every missile fired on Israel as if it hit the intended target, and we will retaliate accordingly.”
    10:08 PM · Apr 14, 2024
    ·
    6,265
    Views

    https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/1779617645282603479
    If Israel literally does that, then I think it guarantees a massive regional war
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited April 2024
    tlg86 said:

    Interesting anecdote, thanks for sharing. I am anything but an expert, but this seems to contradict the Dan Neidle view that a married couple has to have one home for tax purposes.
    It depends how many years they kept both houses going, when they first bought them and how many years they lived in them before marriage - there is not enough information in the anecdote to work out whether tax would be due or not...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    eek said:

    So I'm right - you haven't had a public sector job and haven't got a clue why things are done the way they are in the public sector.

    You may not like it but this Tory Government has been in power 14 years (heck the Tories have been in power 32 of the last 45 years) and the one thing that no Government has done is change the way public sector recruitment is done.

    So

    1) I wonder why they do things the way they do?
    2) Why do you think even this Government hasn't changed the approach?
    3) Yet you know better even though you've provided no evidence to back that up...
    I have worked on public sector projects certainly and they were always the worst ones to work on because civil servants were in charge and didn't to be frank know their arse from their elbows

    However on the recruitment front

    explain to me why all applicants for a job have to fill out a form first before applying rather than narrowing down a couple of hundred applicants down to "These five we really like the look of" to progress to final interview you need to fill out this form?

    I have worked for firms where to get the job you needed developed vetting...guess what they didnt require all applicants to go through it, just the final few
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    Leon said:

    This whole grotesque Israel/Muslim neurosis-turned-world-war reminds me what a remarkable thing was achieved in Northern Ireland. There we had the same endless centuries-old grievances, the same embittered generations, decade after decade, 300 years of violence. Famine and bombs, murders and Black and Tans, Bloody Sunday and Warrington

    Yet it DID end. Humans woke up and said, This doesn't have to be. And now Ireland and Britain are at peace. it is sometimes grumpy, but it is peace

    Well done to all that did that

    What actually happened was

    1) the war wasn’t going anywhere. The Men Of Peace were kinda ignored, but present.
    2) British intelligence tried infiltrating the factions to create supergrasses to send the Men Of Violence to prison
    3) 2) was shot down by the lawyers.
    4) Bi used 2) to take control of the “anti-informer* operations on both sides
    5) shortly after, it became clear on both sides that the traitors to each side, strangely were those most wanting to continue the war. Weird but, hey. Shoot them in the head and move on.
    6) with lots of the MoVs dead, the MoPs were increasingly listened to.
    7) the final touch was that as long as the remaining MoVs keep quiet(ish) they get 6 figure salaries and multiple jobs. This is an order of magnitude better than most of them did out of protection and drug dealing.
    8) as a result of 7) a return to violence is hard. How else do you pay the mortgage?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Iran could effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz . Causing oil prices to spike dramatically . Bad news for the west .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Watching Scoop, the Prince Andrew thing on Netflix. Not my usual cup of tea but pretty good so far, great cast and Rufus Sewell putting in an uncanny shift as the great man.

    ‘I don’t know why everyone is making such a fuss about my friendship with Epstein, I knew Jimmy Savile much better, haw, haw!’
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited April 2024
    Pagan2 said:

    I have worked on public sector projects certainly and they were always the worst ones to work on because civil servants were in charge and didn't to be frank know their arse from their elbows

    However on the recruitment front

    explain to me why all applicants for a job have to fill out a form first before applying rather than narrowing down a couple of hundred applicants down to "These five we really like the look of" to progress to final interview you need to fill out this form?

    I have worked for firms where to get the job you needed developed vetting...guess what they didnt require all applicants to go through it, just the final few
    Yet more anecdotes that show you haven't got a clue how other things work and put in useless information for the sake of it (so you've worked on public sector projects - I think 80% of my work from 2000 to 2015 was public sector, doesn't really mean much)..

    As for why its a form that's because the application process is based on questions -

    Identical questions on the form
    Identical questions at the interview

    The person who scores best across the form and the interview gets the job...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    eek said:

    Yet more anecdotes that show you haven't got a clue how other things work and put in useless information for the sake of it.

    As for why its a form that's because the application process is based on questions -

    Identical questions on the form
    Identical questions at the interview

    The person who scores best across the form and the interview gets the job...
    No its the public sector that really doesn't have a clue, if I am replying to a job advert I know I am one of probably a hundred or more. Ask me to fill out a form to apply yeah not going to bother. Perhaps why as you say you have zero applicants....do a first interview then say you are on the short list of 5 fill out this form yes I will bother.

    The public sector acts like it is a privilege to working for them when they really are just another bunch of idiots
  • SteveSSteveS Posts: 200
    Pagan2 said:

    No its the public sector that really doesn't have a clue, if I am replying to a job advert I know I am one of probably a hundred or more. Ask me to fill out a form to apply yeah not going to bother. Perhaps why as you say you have zero applicants....do a first interview then say you are on the short list of 5 fill out this form yes I will bother.

    The public sector acts like it is a privilege to working for them when they really are just another bunch of idiots
    So you ask 100 people to first interview, then ask the chosen five to fill out a form? And you’d do this for every public sector job?

    S
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,497
    edited April 2024
    SteveS said:

    So you ask 100 people to first interview, then ask the chosen five to fill out a form? And you’d do this for every public sector job?

    S
    It wasnt me saying they had zero applicants for the jobs they advertised, I was merely saying that to me fill out this form to apply would result in a fuck off not bothering, I suspect it puts off a lot of applicants. We have a cv we can send....yeah your form for a job where there might be a 100 other applicants not worth my time and effort

    Eek is claiming all 100 must fill out the form
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,079
    Pagan2 said:

    It wasnt me saying they had zero applicants for the jobs they advertised, I was merely saying that to me fill out this form to apply would result in a fuck off not bothering, I suspect it puts off a lot of applicants. We have a cv we can send....yeah your form for a job where there might be a 100 other applicants not worth my time and effort

    Eek is claiming all 100 must fill out the form
    I thought the public sector was an el Dorado of cushy pay, conditions and pensions?

    Surely that's worth filling out a form for.

    (Which is not to say that creaky HR systems aren't an issue. But they're not the issue.)
This discussion has been closed.