It's moderately warm, and the sky is a sort of weird blue-ish colour. Plus, when you step outside there's not thousands of gallons of water landing on top of you the way there usually is.
The big story today is the WASPI women and the govt's reaction to them. Curiously similar to the deliberate blocking of the deserved compensation for the victims of the tainted blood and Post Office scandals.
I'm not sure if these are a cause of the Cons collapse or just another symptom of why that collapse has happened. There are too many in No 10 that seem to have no idea what they are doing.
Come on, it's night and day compared to those two particular scandals. My mum was born in 1956 and I'd known for donkey's years her state pension would be at the age of 66.
To quote the acronym in full, Whining About State Pensions is Irritating. It's frankly down to some highly impressive lobbying that this case is even being given the time of day.
Obviously, this is all anecdotage, but my wife is one of the very small group who were badly affected, twice. She was born in January 1955, and saw her retirement age raised from 60 to 64, and then again to 66. She is still very friendly with girls from her class at school - those born in Sept - Dec 1954 have received six years' more pension than Milady Carp. She feels that the first move was understandable (equalising retirement ages) but the second was unpardonable in view of the first rise. Another point concerns those women of that particular "certain age" who were divorced and agreed to a financial settlement before the rises took place. It seems that a number of lawyers and judges might have been ignorant of the consequences of the change, and advised clients to accept settlements that might now be regarded as sub-optimal.
It does seem bizarre that anyone would think it was a good idea to have such a cliff edge in entitlement, rather than to phase it in, but we have all sorts of similar ugly artifacts all around the tax code and public policy. Does no-one involved in creating public policy give a damn about such arbitrary impacts?
The evidence is that the number of such cliff edges increases over time, in tax and benefits.
Se either
1) they don’t give a fuck 2) that they do and actively create them for the effects they produce.
At a guess, I'd assume that clean breaks are more straightforward and cheaper to administer than gradual phasing. In the WASPI case, it might've been less iniquitous to ramp up the retirement age by, say, six months per year for ten years to achieve parity, but there was no interest in such complexities.
And we're nowhere near the end of tinkering with the state pension, of course. It's completely unaffordable, but since it's also politically impossible to cut or cap existing pensioner benefits, or to claw back the costs from better off oldies through property taxes, that means rationing for future recipients. More hikes in the pension age, means testing, or probably a combination of the two.
A 10% rise in income tax combined with a 10% cut in national insurance would do a lot to make pensions more affordable and not cost a single penny from people's PAYE wages.
The current reductions in NI are covered by the fiscal drag of the income tax rates.
So, actually, the current chancellor is doing what you advocate.
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
The fruit is identical to that of Aspidosperma Spruceanum found in Colombia
But Wiki insists this is a flowering plant not a tree. Can a tree be a flowering plant?
Come on, this is exciting
Many trees are flowering plants, more technically angiosperms. Think of horse chestnuts, magnolias, etc. etc. Tho lots of trees have small green flowers that are not very noticeable, e.g. oak.
But quite a lot are gymnosperms such as conifers.
In any case, 'tree' tends to mean "****ing big plant a lot taller than me" so it's really a habit of growth rather than a kind of plant. There were some really wierd trees in days of yore, coal forests (closest relativce today perhaps and even further back, into the Devonian.
So “tree” isn’t a technical scientific term at all?
In which case I think this is Aspidosperma Spruceanum. It’s rather lovely. Long slender ash grey trunk and verdant green palmate leaves. It whispers sweetly in the jungle breeze. I can just hear the Caribbean waves toiling in the distance
I could get into this botany lark
I think the same is true for 'Fish' as well. It is certainly true for types of fish. For instance there is no such thing as a sardine, whitebait or bream. They are just a bunch of types of fish that look similar although may not be related at all.
Also “seagull”. Don’t say that around a twitcher unless you have half an hour spare.
Make that an hour....
And don’t call it a ‘seabird’. Whatever gull it is, it’s a coastal bird. Sea birds are things like petrels or puffins which only come to land to rear their young.
Maybe I was a bit previous with my earlier comments. Descriptions of the gunmen being made pointedly that they were bearded, so possibly Islamic terrorism. Apparently there's been fighting in one of the not Chechnya Muslim republics in Russia recently.
It has been apparent for a while that the Russian state is very far advanced in one particular area: political manipulation. There is a good book on this 'nothing is true and everything is possible' by Peter Pomerantsev. They find ways of manipulating discourse to turn everything that happens either domestically or globally to their advantage. Domestically this came through control of media outlets and the process of creating 'managed opposition' to the state. Globally the aim is to reduce the coherance of any unifying or coherant narrative about the west, promoting discord and outrage, turning people against each other making decision making impossible and ultimately weakening the power of the west which is seen by Russia as its main adversary. So when you look at anything from Scottish Independence, Brexit, Trump, BLM, Colonialism, womens safety campaigns, right through to Gaza, they find a way of manipulating them to make them more divisive and polarised to confuse people. The Russian state has no real allies other than the occasional sycophant, everything is viewed cynically and as a tool to secure its own survival.
It's moderately warm, and the sky is a sort of weird blue-ish colour. Plus, when you step outside there's not thousands of gallons of water landing on top of you the way there usually is.
The big story today is the WASPI women and the govt's reaction to them. Curiously similar to the deliberate blocking of the deserved compensation for the victims of the tainted blood and Post Office scandals.
I'm not sure if these are a cause of the Cons collapse or just another symptom of why that collapse has happened. There are too many in No 10 that seem to have no idea what they are doing.
Come on, it's night and day compared to those two particular scandals. My mum was born in 1956 and I'd known for donkey's years her state pension would be at the age of 66.
To quote the acronym in full, Whining About State Pensions is Irritating. It's frankly down to some highly impressive lobbying that this case is even being given the time of day.
Obviously, this is all anecdotage, but my wife is one of the very small group who were badly affected, twice. She was born in January 1955, and saw her retirement age raised from 60 to 64, and then again to 66. She is still very friendly with girls from her class at school - those born in Sept - Dec 1954 have received six years' more pension than Milady Carp. She feels that the first move was understandable (equalising retirement ages) but the second was unpardonable in view of the first rise. Another point concerns those women of that particular "certain age" who were divorced and agreed to a financial settlement before the rises took place. It seems that a number of lawyers and judges might have been ignorant of the consequences of the change, and advised clients to accept settlements that might now be regarded as sub-optimal.
It does seem bizarre that anyone would think it was a good idea to have such a cliff edge in entitlement, rather than to phase it in, but we have all sorts of similar ugly artifacts all around the tax code and public policy. Does no-one involved in creating public policy give a damn about such arbitrary impacts?
The evidence is that the number of such cliff edges increases over time, in tax and benefits.
Se either
1) they don’t give a fuck 2) that they do and actively create them for the effects they produce.
At a guess, I'd assume that clean breaks are more straightforward and cheaper to administer than gradual phasing. In the WASPI case, it might've been less iniquitous to ramp up the retirement age by, say, six months per year for ten years to achieve parity, but there was no interest in such complexities.
And we're nowhere near the end of tinkering with the state pension, of course. It's completely unaffordable, but since it's also politically impossible to cut or cap existing pensioner benefits, or to claw back the costs from better off oldies through property taxes, that means rationing for future recipients. More hikes in the pension age, means testing, or probably a combination of the two.
A 10% rise in income tax combined with a 10% cut in national insurance would do a lot to make pensions more affordable and not cost a single penny from people's PAYE wages.
The current reductions in NI are covered by the fiscal drag of the income tax rates.
So, actually, the current chancellor is doing what you advocate.
Just at a glacial pace, but I do support the small steps he's taken in the right direction.
If it weren't for Sunak's NIMBYism I'd vote Tory for what Hunt is doing.
I was very upset when Diana died . It was such a weird time in London , that week was surreal .
With the Queen I can say I was just meh . She lived to a great age and I wouldn’t have classed her life as tragic . I was more wondering how weird it would be to not have her around . What was surprising was how the country moved on quite smoothly .
Hoping the people who were trolling about the Princess of Wales in a hump about her marriage being the reason she was out of the public eye etc are delighted with the news.
I hope everyone who came out with whacky conspiracy theories — e.g. she’s dead, that wasn’t her at the shop — will take a moment to realise how susceptible we, all people, can be to conspiracy theories. And, how important it is to not get so carried away.
The fruit is identical to that of Aspidosperma Spruceanum found in Colombia
But Wiki insists this is a flowering plant not a tree. Can a tree be a flowering plant?
Come on, this is exciting
Many trees are flowering plants, more technically angiosperms. Think of horse chestnuts, magnolias, etc. etc. Tho lots of trees have small green flowers that are not very noticeable, e.g. oak.
But quite a lot are gymnosperms such as conifers.
In any case, 'tree' tends to mean "****ing big plant a lot taller than me" so it's really a habit of growth rather than a kind of plant. There were some really wierd trees in days of yore, coal forests (closest relativce today perhaps and even further back, into the Devonian.
So “tree” isn’t a technical scientific term at all?
In which case I think this is Aspidosperma Spruceanum. It’s rather lovely. Long slender ash grey trunk and verdant green palmate leaves. It whispers sweetly in the jungle breeze. I can just hear the Caribbean waves toiling in the distance
I could get into this botany lark
I think the same is true for 'Fish' as well. It is certainly true for types of fish. For instance there is no such thing as a sardine, whitebait or bream. They are just a bunch of types of fish that look similar although may not be related at all.
Also “seagull”. Don’t say that around a twitcher unless you have half an hour spare.
Curious what seagulls have to do with people who stream themselves playing video games?
It's moderately warm, and the sky is a sort of weird blue-ish colour. Plus, when you step outside there's not thousands of gallons of water landing on top of you the way there usually is.
The big story today is the WASPI women and the govt's reaction to them. Curiously similar to the deliberate blocking of the deserved compensation for the victims of the tainted blood and Post Office scandals.
I'm not sure if these are a cause of the Cons collapse or just another symptom of why that collapse has happened. There are too many in No 10 that seem to have no idea what they are doing.
Come on, it's night and day compared to those two particular scandals. My mum was born in 1956 and I'd known for donkey's years her state pension would be at the age of 66.
To quote the acronym in full, Whining About State Pensions is Irritating. It's frankly down to some highly impressive lobbying that this case is even being given the time of day.
Obviously, this is all anecdotage, but my wife is one of the very small group who were badly affected, twice. She was born in January 1955, and saw her retirement age raised from 60 to 64, and then again to 66. She is still very friendly with girls from her class at school - those born in Sept - Dec 1954 have received six years' more pension than Milady Carp. She feels that the first move was understandable (equalising retirement ages) but the second was unpardonable in view of the first rise. Another point concerns those women of that particular "certain age" who were divorced and agreed to a financial settlement before the rises took place. It seems that a number of lawyers and judges might have been ignorant of the consequences of the change, and advised clients to accept settlements that might now be regarded as sub-optimal.
It does seem bizarre that anyone would think it was a good idea to have such a cliff edge in entitlement, rather than to phase it in, but we have all sorts of similar ugly artifacts all around the tax code and public policy. Does no-one involved in creating public policy give a damn about such arbitrary impacts?
The evidence is that the number of such cliff edges increases over time, in tax and benefits.
Se either
1) they don’t give a fuck 2) that they do and actively create them for the effects they produce.
At a guess, I'd assume that clean breaks are more straightforward and cheaper to administer than gradual phasing. In the WASPI case, it might've been less iniquitous to ramp up the retirement age by, say, six months per year for ten years to achieve parity, but there was no interest in such complexities.
And we're nowhere near the end of tinkering with the state pension, of course. It's completely unaffordable, but since it's also politically impossible to cut or cap existing pensioner benefits, or to claw back the costs from better off oldies through property taxes, that means rationing for future recipients. More hikes in the pension age, means testing, or probably a combination of the two.
A 10% rise in income tax combined with a 10% cut in national insurance would do a lot to make pensions more affordable and not cost a single penny from people's PAYE wages.
Runs into the same problem as hiking inheritance tax to recoup some of the costs. The entire political class agrees on the necessity firstly to give assets, especially houses, preferential tax treatment when compared with earnings, and secondly to butter up the retired. Until attitudes change and generational equity becomes a higher priority than appeasing the grey vote, the mechanism of net wealth transfer upwards (from the poor and young to the rich and old) will remain in place.
27% for Hall would be about par given the current polls and arguably better as it is in solid Labour London
I think it a reflection on Khan rather than Hall. Khan isn't well liked by a growing minority of Londoners and that wouldn't manifest in a General Election where the choice is Sunak vs Starmer.
I've suggested it's comparable with the 2022 local election performance for London across the capital but still down on the 32% achieved by the Conservatives at the last GE.
It also shows the strength and limitation of the "cuddle your core vote" strategy. On these figures, Reform are being held at bay, a mere 2 %. That might be a complete lack of name recognition, I guess. But also Hall is a Zone 6 candidate for Zone 6 voters, so why should the good people of Havering and Bexley go anywhere else?
Though the big picture is Khan getting about half the vote and Hall about a quarter. When you stop and think, that's nuts for a city that had a Conservative Mayor a decade ago.
Yes, London has become a Labour city and at the 2022 locals the Conservatives were left with majority control of just five councils (they also run Croydon via the Mayor). Hall's number compares with the 32% polled by the Conservatives across the capital at the last GE and the 26% at the last locals in 2022.
The latest Westminster polls have Labour 35 points ahead in the capital (52-17) which would be a 9.5% swing on 2019 which is much less than the national UNS which is coming in at 16-18% currently so what is the difference? If London (9.5%), Scotland (12.5%) and Wales (9%) are swinging much less than the UNS, there must be some huge swings in provincial England.
R&W Red Wall swing is 16%, R&W Blue Wall is 16.5% - R&W national swing is 19.5%. The Clacton polling gave us a clue - Reform are polling best where the Conservatives are strongest. The swing without Farage was 24.5% from Conservative to Labour (Con down 34, Lab up 15). I'd be looking at some of these "safest" Conservative seats for the best Reform numbers.
The big story today is the WASPI women and the govt's reaction to them. Curiously similar to the deliberate blocking of the deserved compensation for the victims of the tainted blood and Post Office scandals.
I'm not sure if these are a cause of the Cons collapse or just another symptom of why that collapse has happened. There are too many in No 10 that seem to have no idea what they are doing.
Just to be clear these are the people who claim to be against state pension inequality except when they are the beneficiaries and then they should definitely be paid more than anyone else?
It’s been clear government policy for nearly 30 years to increase the age when pensions can be drawn. I’m sorry they weren’t paying attention. But they don’t deserve billions when there are far more important investments that are needed
I was very upset when Diana died . It was such a weird time in London , that week was surreal .
With the Queen I can say I was just meh . She lived to a great age and I wouldn’t have classed her life as tragic . I was more wondering how weird it would be to not have her around . What was surprising was how the country moved on quite smoothly .
I have missed the Queen more as time has progressed than in the hours following her death. She was just so, so good at her job, and contributed greatly to the stability of our country in a way that her son, though I support his continued reign, doesn't.
Maybe I was a bit previous with my earlier comments. Descriptions of the gunmen being made pointedly that they were bearded, so possibly Islamic terrorism. Apparently there's been fighting in one of the not Chechnya Muslim republics in Russia recently.
"Fighting" is somewhat of a Ukrainian spin on it. A raid by Russian forces, to which this could well be a retaliation. Talking about Ingushetia.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 · 39m As someone who speculated on this without considering it could be a serious health condition, I’m very ashamed to be honest, and all the very best to her.
It wouldn't surprise me if the perpetrators of the terror attack in Moscow were Ingush. See the raid carried out in Ingushetia three weeks ago. If so, they may have been assisted by Russia's main current enemy.
1. He's a bit of a nutter. 2. He may not be too pleased about the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh. 3. Never rule out the FSB - so yes, it could be their job. Recall when they bombed Moscow apartment blocks to assist their guy Putin.
The US warning specifically said that the threat was from “extremists” which doesn’t suggest they expected some kind of false flag attack.
It's moderately warm, and the sky is a sort of weird blue-ish colour. Plus, when you step outside there's not thousands of gallons of water landing on top of you the way there usually is.
The big story today is the WASPI women and the govt's reaction to them. Curiously similar to the deliberate blocking of the deserved compensation for the victims of the tainted blood and Post Office scandals.
I'm not sure if these are a cause of the Cons collapse or just another symptom of why that collapse has happened. There are too many in No 10 that seem to have no idea what they are doing.
Come on, it's night and day compared to those two particular scandals. My mum was born in 1956 and I'd known for donkey's years her state pension would be at the age of 66.
To quote the acronym in full, Whining About State Pensions is Irritating. It's frankly down to some highly impressive lobbying that this case is even being given the time of day.
Obviously, this is all anecdotage, but my wife is one of the very small group who were badly affected, twice. She was born in January 1955, and saw her retirement age raised from 60 to 64, and then again to 66. She is still very friendly with girls from her class at school - those born in Sept - Dec 1954 have received six years' more pension than Milady Carp. She feels that the first move was understandable (equalising retirement ages) but the second was unpardonable in view of the first rise. Another point concerns those women of that particular "certain age" who were divorced and agreed to a financial settlement before the rises took place. It seems that a number of lawyers and judges might have been ignorant of the consequences of the change, and advised clients to accept settlements that might now be regarded as sub-optimal.
It does seem bizarre that anyone would think it was a good idea to have such a cliff edge in entitlement, rather than to phase it in, but we have all sorts of similar ugly artifacts all around the tax code and public policy. Does no-one involved in creating public policy give a damn about such arbitrary impacts?
The evidence is that the number of such cliff edges increases over time, in tax and benefits.
Se either
1) they don’t give a fuck 2) that they do and actively create them for the effects they produce.
At a guess, I'd assume that clean breaks are more straightforward and cheaper to administer than gradual phasing. In the WASPI case, it might've been less iniquitous to ramp up the retirement age by, say, six months per year for ten years to achieve parity, but there was no interest in such complexities.
And we're nowhere near the end of tinkering with the state pension, of course. It's completely unaffordable, but since it's also politically impossible to cut or cap existing pensioner benefits, or to claw back the costs from better off oldies through property taxes, that means rationing for future recipients. More hikes in the pension age, means testing, or probably a combination of the two.
A 10% rise in income tax combined with a 10% cut in national insurance would do a lot to make pensions more affordable and not cost a single penny from people's PAYE wages.
The current reductions in NI are covered by the fiscal drag of the income tax rates.
So, actually, the current chancellor is doing what you advocate.
Not quite, though.
Treating NI and IT as interchangable, Sunakomics is to cut the rate and freeze (i.e. cut in real terms) the thresholds. That's a bigger bill at the bottom and a cut at the top.
Increase the rate of tax as you cut the rate of NI, then it's worth talking.
Maybe I was a bit previous with my earlier comments. Descriptions of the gunmen being made pointedly that they were bearded, so possibly Islamic terrorism. Apparently there's been fighting in one of the not Chechnya Muslim republics in Russia recently.
"Fighting" is somewhat of a Ukrainian spin on it. A raid by Russian forces, to which this could well be a retaliation. Talking about Ingushetia.
Another possibility is Dagestan. See Makhachkala.
“fighting” is a spin? - in what way is paramilitary type people taking over areas temporarily and shooting at the government forces not “fighting”?
If the IRA had managed that in NI and actually fought some pitched battles, it would definitely have been described as fighting.
EDIT: there’s plenty of Chechens not happy with the current Putin puppets, as well.
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
I was very upset when Diana died . It was such a weird time in London , that week was surreal .
With the Queen I can say I was just meh . She lived to a great age and I wouldn’t have classed her life as tragic . I was more wondering how weird it would be to not have her around . What was surprising was how the country moved on quite smoothly .
I have missed the Queen more as time has progressed than in the hours following her death. She was just so, so good at her job, and contributed greatly to the stability of our country in a way that her son, though I support his continued reign, doesn't.
She did a good job and I’m not denying that. I think with Diana it was much more upsetting because of her young age and pretty tragic life . And she had a profound effect on attitudes towards Aids . She’ll always be a huge heroine to the gay community .
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 · 39m As someone who speculated on this without considering it could be a serious health condition, I’m very ashamed to be honest, and all the very best to her.
I had not commented on the recent posts by Mike Smithson, but feel that I should This site, which he founded twenty years ago has played a significant part in all our lives, and the way that people of divergent political opinions can interact has been to the good of British democracy at a difficult time.
I wonder whether Robert and TSE, in discussion with Mike, might think about setting up a fund perhaps for us to contribute in his name to a dementia charity, or another charity that might be dear to his heart. In the alternative, some other endeavour in his name, perhaps a lecture on a political subject at a university or at some other public body.
I had not commented on the recent posts by Mike Smithson, but feel that I should This site, which he founded twenty years ago has played a significant part in all our lives, and the way that people of divergent political opinions can interact has been to the good of British democracy at a difficult time.
I wonder whether Robert and TSE, in discussion with Mike, might think about setting up a fund perhaps for us to contribute in his name to a dementia charity, or another charity that might be dear to his heart. In the alternative, some other endeavour in his name, perhaps a lecture on a political subject at a university or at some other public body.
I don't know what others might think
I think I suggested a charity link for the site a while back.
We should definitely do some kind of site charitable event. Or events.
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
Have you got it?
I thought you made a good case for it and you have no need to apologise
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
Have you got it?
I thought you made a good case for it and you have no need to apologise
I thought MoonRabbit's argument was terrible! But, hey, we all get things wrong. I didn't think Galloway would be re-elected.
I think it’s also preempting the backlash, now they are taking over the German kit, when they replace the German gold, red and black flag with a “playful” reinterpretation in black, red and white as a nod to the great German team from 1939 to 1945.
I was very upset when Diana died . It was such a weird time in London , that week was surreal .
With the Queen I can say I was just meh . She lived to a great age and I wouldn’t have classed her life as tragic . I was more wondering how weird it would be to not have her around . What was surprising was how the country moved on quite smoothly .
I was living in Pimlico and walking to Charing Cross daily, past the sea of flowers.
In amongst, I went to Trinidad for less than 24 hours. I lost track of the number of Trinidadians asking me to take flowers.
Owen Jones @OwenJones84 · 39m As someone who speculated on this without considering it could be a serious health condition, I’m very ashamed to be honest, and all the very best to her.
Well played to him, plenty won’t have the courage to hold hands up
To be fair the Royal Family themselves did stir up the conspiracies with bizarre mistakes like the “doctored photo”
I’m a royalist and think Kate is Great but that was a stupid error and it was handled badly
Anyway now it’s all known she can retreat in peace to her family 👍🙏
Gosh that is horrible news about Kate though. Very sad. You can easily see why the photo thing happened, it’s not as if anyone really thinks straight when being given such news. Best wishes to her and her family.
I think it’s also preempting the backlash, now they are taking over the German kit, when they replace the German gold, red and black flag with a “playful” reinterpretation in black, red and white as a nod to the great German team from 1939 to 1945.
Lots of away fixtures lost and cancelled for that team.
It was a stupid error removing the English flag from the England kit. The iconography of the national jersey in the national sport does matter and you can only imagine the ludicrous marketing meeting that thought this a good idea.
I am with @Malmesbury on this: creatives changing stuff purely for the sake of changing it. The ludicrous thing is the new kit is otherwise really smart!
John Redwood calls again for the Bank to change it's bond sale (and interest rate) policy, and by extension for Sunak and Hunt to drive this change of policy, since the Bank is an arm of the state:
The Bank of England forecast inflation at 2% when it was going on to hit 11%. So clearly it does not understand inflation and has little ability to forecast it accurately as it is required to do. It tells us the inflation was caused by the Ukraine war and energy prices which it could not predict. So how come inflation was already 3 times target before the invasion? That main part of the inflation was not caused by the war. How come Japan and China kept inflation down to around 2% despite having to import much dearer energy as a result of the war?
Now we are told they cannot risk lower rates because there could be more trouble in the Red Sea. Freight rates and insurance rates are already well up and much shipping has been diverted to the long route, so markets know all about that pressure on prices. Meanwhile the money supply has been squeezed, credit is dear and scarcer, mortgage demand has fallen and the Bank ignores all these obvious signs that inflation will come down.
Worst of all is the gross distortion of its balance sheet. They bought far too many bonds at crazy prices in 2021 only now to want to sell them at huge losses and send the taxpayer the bill. Why? The ECB that made the same inflationary mistake is not doubling the error by selling bonds in the market. The Fed is not getting reimbursement from its Treasury. Only the Bank insists on double austerity with squeezed money and less public spending or tax cuts as the taxpayer picks up the bill of the UK’s uniquely bad bond investor, the Bank of England. Never has the Bank lost so much money so quickly for no good purpose.
We need an urgent change of Bank policy, Stop selling the bonds. Cut the base rate by 25 bp. Switzerland, Poland, Hungary, Brazil, China have started cutting their rates.
On the bond sales, I think this is becoming a totemic indicator of seriousness about good governance. Is a prospective PM willing to challenge the Bank on this, or are they happy to imperil the nation's finances whilst moaning on about 'responsibility' and there being 'no headroom in the public finances' - effectively flagrant lies when they know full well that wheelbarrows full of public money are being emptied into the Bank of England furnace. Starmer and his pathetic crew have shown their colours - it remains to be seen whether any Conservative leadership challengers are willing to grasp the nettle.
Maybe I was a bit previous with my earlier comments. Descriptions of the gunmen being made pointedly that they were bearded, so possibly Islamic terrorism. Apparently there's been fighting in one of the not Chechnya Muslim republics in Russia recently.
"Fighting" is somewhat of a Ukrainian spin on it. A raid by Russian forces, to which this could well be a retaliation. Talking about Ingushetia.
Another possibility is Dagestan. See Makhachkala.
“fighting” is a spin? - in what way is paramilitary type people taking over areas temporarily and shooting at the government forces not “fighting”?
If the IRA had managed that in NI and actually fought some pitched battles, it would definitely have been described as fighting.
EDIT: there’s plenty of Chechens not happy with the current Putin puppets, as well.
What the Kyiv Independent was referring to as fighting having broken out in Ingushetia earlier this month came down to six people in a building. The Russian government said they were "Islamic State". The Kyiv Independent called them "alleged militants".
I assumed LostPassword was referring to that particular battle ("recently"), not the entire and longer-term state of play in Ingushetia.
Whatever the semantics, today's job in Moscow could well be the same outfit.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Maybe I was a bit previous with my earlier comments. Descriptions of the gunmen being made pointedly that they were bearded, so possibly Islamic terrorism. Apparently there's been fighting in one of the not Chechnya Muslim republics in Russia recently.
"Fighting" is somewhat of a Ukrainian spin on it. A raid by Russian forces, to which this could well be a retaliation. Talking about Ingushetia.
Another possibility is Dagestan. See Makhachkala.
“fighting” is a spin? - in what way is paramilitary type people taking over areas temporarily and shooting at the government forces not “fighting”?
If the IRA had managed that in NI and actually fought some pitched battles, it would definitely have been described as fighting.
EDIT: there’s plenty of Chechens not happy with the current Putin puppets, as well.
What the Kyiv Independent was referring to as fighting having broken out in Ingushetia earlier this month came down to six people in a building. The Russian government said they were "Islamic State". The Kyiv Independent called them "alleged militants".
I assumed LostPassword was just referring to that particular battle ("recently"), not the entire state of play in Ingushetia.
Whatever the semantics, today's job in Moscow could well be the same outfit.
I honestly couldn't remember the details of what I'd read and so chose the least specific description I could think of.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
False flags are pretty rare. THAT SAID, I think it is highly likely that the Russians will need to go to full mobilization next. So, who knows?
Does Putin need another false flag? He’s just won the election with 837% of the vote. He’s now officially calling Ukraine a war. If it’s an actual war he can mobilise all of Russia. Navalny is dead and opposition is nugatory
I don’t think he needs to have guys shooting up moscow causing fear and panic…?
I fear he is going to get some kind of “win” in Ukraine
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Consider the Mumbai attackers, for example.
Not soldiers by a long way, or actually any good at more than shooting unarmed people.
Heavily armed and seemed quite relaxed as they wandered around, committing mass murder.
They have not remotely suffered an injustice like those caught up in the blood compensation and Post Office scandals. Cliff edges are unfair but we have them all over the place in the tax and benefits system.
Lots of sympathy for Catherine - and William, who now has a father and wife with cancer and 3 young children to care for. A tough time for them all so I hope the trolls and press leave them alone. A member of my family was recently diagnosed with cancer - with a good prognosis - but the treatment is still unpleasant and the worry is constant.
Tormenting people in the public eye at times like these does not reflect well on those doing it.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
And it utterly coincidentally allowed Putin to start the second Chechen war.
I'd never rule out FSB involvement in anything. If Putin hits one or more mainly Muslim areas hard in the next two weeks, then it will be likely that the FSB at the very least "allowed" today's attack to go ahead. But will he?
If it's pinned only on Islamists, that wouldn't be particularly great support for full-scale mobilisation. Ukrainian involvement would have to be alleged. (This assessment changes if Islamist terrorism in Russia scales up and Russia is at war on two fronts.)
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Consider the Mumbai attackers, for example.
Not soldiers by a long way, or actually any good at more than shooting unarmed people.
Heavily armed and seemed quite relaxed as they wandered around, committing mass murder.
On the other hand consider the horrible videos of ISIS at work - lots of shouting and “Allahu Akbar” = over excited nutters
Whereas the Hamas militants on October 7 were cool and generally (not always) calm. Professional Hamas “soldiers”
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Consider the Mumbai attackers, for example.
Not soldiers by a long way, or actually any good at more than shooting unarmed people.
Heavily armed and seemed quite relaxed as they wandered around, committing mass murder.
On the other hand consider the horrible videos of ISIS at work - lots of shouting and “Allahu Akbar” = over excited nutters
Whereas the Hamas militants on October 7 were cool and generally (not always) calm. Professional Hamas “soldiers”
Or the IDF calmly bombing Palestinians in their homes while they sleep?
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
Have you got it?
Many of us have made more stupid predictions, on occasion.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I suggest you read (if you can stand it) eyewitness testimonies from Dunblane. A guy used to shooting, but not at people. Not a trained solider. Or, more pertinently because of the large times involved, Hungerford. Or Cumbria.
None, as far as I am aware, were trained soldiers to any degree. Yet in the last two cases their rampages lasted not just minutes, but hours. If someone gets it in their head to kill others for *reasons*, and they have access to guns, and know how to shoot them reasonably well, they can cause carnage.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Consider the Mumbai attackers, for example.
Not soldiers by a long way, or actually any good at more than shooting unarmed people.
Heavily armed and seemed quite relaxed as they wandered around, committing mass murder.
On the other hand consider the horrible videos of ISIS at work - lots of shouting and “Allahu Akbar” = over excited nutters
Whereas the Hamas militants on October 7 were cool and generally (not always) calm. Professional Hamas “soldiers”
Or the IDF calmly bombing Palestinians in their homes while they sleep?
Or Hamas killing Israelis in their homes? Or at a festival?
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
The difficulty with any madman wanting to kill people here in the UK is that the government have made it rather hard to gain access to guns, or the materials to make bombs. Even the anarchists' cookbook has allegedly been altered.
But if you can access such things, you don't need much 'skill' or training to cause mayhem. The key is to prevent access.
Hoping the people who were trolling about the Princess of Wales in a hump about her marriage being the reason she was out of the public eye etc are delighted with the news.
I hope everyone who came out with whacky conspiracy theories — e.g. she’s dead, that wasn’t her at the shop — will take a moment to realise how susceptible we, all people, can be to conspiracy theories. And, how important it is to not get so carried away.
Point is that something was up though, wasn’t it. I have huge sympathy for her and her family. I was diagnosed with leukaemia at 39, weeks short of my 40th birthday, which I spent in an isolation room. But luckily for me my cancer was treatable and here I am wasting my life on PB…
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
It’s the same as those who find the internet full of ads for porn.
You get offered what you click on.
I get lots of ads for very expensive machine tools.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
Yes. I have never seen a video of a killing, and whenever some idiot posts one on here (or elsewhere on the net) I close down the page or app so I cannot see it. On balance, I’d rather @Leon talked about great wine, French landscapes, and gourmet restaurants.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Well said. Besides the religious reference I couldn't agree with you more.
Anyone who deliberately watches snuff videos is pretty sick.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I suggest you read (if you can stand it) eyewitness testimonies from Dunblane. A guy used to shooting, but not at people. Not a trained solider. Or, more pertinently because of the large times involved, Hungerford. Or Cumbria.
None, as far as I am aware, were trained soldiers to any degree. Yet in the last two cases their rampages lasted not just minutes, but hours. If someone gets it in their head to kill others for *reasons*, and they have access to guns, and know how to shoot them reasonably well, they can cause carnage.
More pertinent perhaps is anders breivik
He was said to be preternaturally calm and he was also supremely methodical. But that’s cause he’d spent years planning the attack and training mind and body
My guess is these guys will turn out to have some training, probably a military background. But who knows
One weird thing: there’s a video of one of them being arrested (allegedly). The Russian police are not known for their kindly and forgiving ways and these are mass shooters who’ve just slaughtered dozens and injured hundreds and they arrest one of them rather than gunning him down?
There are legitimate reasons for trying to catch one alive (for questioning etc). You might also wonder if this is suggestive of a false flag (“we won’t kill you”)
The difficulty with any madman wanting to kill people here in the UK is that the government have made it rather hard to gain access to guns, or the materials to make bombs. Even the anarchists' cookbook has allegedly been altered.
But if you can access such things, you don't need much 'skill' or training to cause mayhem. The key is to prevent access.
Wow you really have no idea, if I wanted a gun it would take me far less than 24 hours to get one and ammunition for it. They are not as hard to get as you seem to think
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
Have you got it?
Many of us have made more stupid predictions, on occasion.
Indeed.
@MoonRabbit ‘s rationale was sound, and she has been courteous by conceding the point. No apology required.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
Yes whatever YAWN. It’s news. I am interested in news. I watch it
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Consider the Mumbai attackers, for example.
Not soldiers by a long way, or actually any good at more than shooting unarmed people.
Heavily armed and seemed quite relaxed as they wandered around, committing mass murder.
On the other hand consider the horrible videos of ISIS at work - lots of shouting and “Allahu Akbar” = over excited nutters
Whereas the Hamas militants on October 7 were cool and generally (not always) calm. Professional Hamas “soldiers”
Or the IDF calmly bombing Palestinians in their homes while they sleep?
Or Hamas killing Israelis in their homes? Or at a festival?
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
It’s the same as those who find the internet full of ads for porn.
You get offered what you click on.
I get lots of ads for very expensive machine tools.
I get loads of ads for bikes atm. Which is bad timing, as I bought one a couple of weeks ago and don't need another.
But Twitter has recently (ahem) got lots of pornographic ads. In a few cases as replies to posts about steam trains. Now I know a Duchess without her skirt on will get any hotblooded Englishman going, but that's a but much...
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
False flags are pretty rare. THAT SAID, I think it is highly likely that the Russians will need to go to full mobilization next. So, who knows?
Does Putin need another false flag? He’s just won the election with 837% of the vote. He’s now officially calling Ukraine a war. If it’s an actual war he can mobilise all of Russia. Navalny is dead and opposition is nugatory
I don’t think he needs to have guys shooting up moscow causing fear and panic…?
I fear he is going to get some kind of “win” in Ukraine
Unless the Ukrainian line collapses completely - which is possible - then it is likely that it will be a long, long grind. Of course Ukraine could sue for peace. But Russian advances are at incredibly slow pace, with - one presumes - pretty horrendous losses.
I’m going to call it on 2nd May General Election. It’s not going to happen.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen. Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
Have you got it?
Many of us have made more stupid predictions, on occasion.
Indeed.
@MoonRabbit ‘s rationale was sound, and she has been courteous by conceding the point. No apology required.
Though I reserve the right to take the occasional piss.
The difficulty with any madman wanting to kill people here in the UK is that the government have made it rather hard to gain access to guns, or the materials to make bombs. Even the anarchists' cookbook has allegedly been altered.
But if you can access such things, you don't need much 'skill' or training to cause mayhem. The key is to prevent access.
Wow you really have no idea, if I wanted a gun it would take me far less than 24 hours to get one and ammunition for it. They are not as hard to get as you seem to think
I could get one even quicker. Mind you, I'm currently in Nevada so perhaps that shouldn't be a surprise.
The difficulty with any madman wanting to kill people here in the UK is that the government have made it rather hard to gain access to guns, or the materials to make bombs. Even the anarchists' cookbook has allegedly been altered.
But if you can access such things, you don't need much 'skill' or training to cause mayhem. The key is to prevent access.
Wow you really have no idea, if I wanted a gun it would take me far less than 24 hours to get one and ammunition for it. They are not as hard to get as you seem to think
I didn't say *you* couldn't access a gun if *you* wanted; the problems with criminals and rentable guns or replicas are well known and publicised. I know two people with gun licenses, and would have no idea where to get hold of an illegal one if I was to go ballistic. And those two people's guns are secure.
But that's a different matter. And there's a large difference between a handgun and an AK-47.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
False flags are pretty rare. THAT SAID, I think it is highly likely that the Russians will need to go to full mobilization next. So, who knows?
Who could you persuade to do that? I can't imagine someone who would knowingly massacre their country men for a false flag.
Maybe a militant group ignored and left to it, who knows?
Putin and the FSB are strongly suspected of being behind the 1999 apartment block bombings.
I'd imagine bombing feels different, less visceral, you would separate yourself from the bomb and the effect. But to walk into a theatre and shoot hundreds while knowing its for Putin. They'd have to be truly odd.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Well said. Besides the religious reference I couldn't agree with you more.
Anyone who deliberately watches snuff videos is pretty sick.
Oh give over with the girly preaching
I wanted to find the truth about what Hamas did on October 7 so I could decide - for myself - whether it was a barbarous attack on total civilians, as alleged by the Israelis, or whether the Israelis were lying or exaggerating
It was a big moral debate and I wasn’t going to rely on 2nd hand accounts to help me make my mind up. I presume you did which explains so much of your discourse on EVERYTHING
So I watched enough of the videos of Hamas on October 7 (and they were horrific). And I saw enough to make up my own mind. Hamas made a terrible assault on totally innocent people - men, women and children. Israeli wrath was justified
Best wishes to Kate - hoping she makes a full recovery. Cancer really is a horrible, horrible illness.
At the moment I'm slightly in awe of her. Not too many years ago I had a similar diagnosis. An unrelated blood test just before a work trip to the Seychelles and my world was turned upside down. I can remember the sensations at that time like it was yesterday. I can best describe it as a roller coaster that goes down and never bottoms out.
I decided to tell no one because I couldn't see how it would help. it's the loneliest place in the world and there's no clear way of dealing with it.
What it must be like to have to face it with the glare of publicity I can hardly imagine. You feel like everyone's looking at you anyway.... She might well recover but I doubt anything will feel quite the same again.
Hoping the people who were trolling about the Princess of Wales in a hump about her marriage being the reason she was out of the public eye etc are delighted with the news.
I hope everyone who came out with whacky conspiracy theories — e.g. she’s dead, that wasn’t her at the shop — will take a moment to realise how susceptible we, all people, can be to conspiracy theories. And, how important it is to not get so carried away.
And that is without the benefit of politically-motivated AI deepfakes being spread and amplified by troll & bot farms.
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
And it utterly coincidentally allowed Putin to start the second Chechen war.
I'd never rule out FSB involvement in anything. If Putin hits one or more mainly Muslim areas hard in the next two weeks, then it will be likely that the FSB at the very least "allowed" today's attack to go ahead. But will he?
If it's pinned only on Islamists, that wouldn't be particularly great support for full-scale mobilisation. Ukrainian involvement would have to be alleged. (This assessment changes if Islamist terrorism in Russia scales up and Russia is at war on two fronts.)
That's the real risk for Russia: that so much of their army is bogged down in Ukraine, and the Islamists and separatists kick things off in the Caucuses. In which case they are going to be stretched very thin indeed.
The difficulty with any madman wanting to kill people here in the UK is that the government have made it rather hard to gain access to guns, or the materials to make bombs. Even the anarchists' cookbook has allegedly been altered.
But if you can access such things, you don't need much 'skill' or training to cause mayhem. The key is to prevent access.
Wow you really have no idea, if I wanted a gun it would take me far less than 24 hours to get one and ammunition for it. They are not as hard to get as you seem to think
I didn't say *you* couldn't access a gun if *you* wanted; the problems with criminals and rentable guns or replicas are well known and publicised. I know two people with gun licenses, and would have no idea where to get hold of an illegal one if I was to go ballistic. And those two people's guns are secure.
But that's a different matter. And there's a large difference between a handgun and an AK-47.
Just totted up numbers, I would say I know at least 12 people who could introduce me to an illegal gun supplier and not talking about replica's or rentable guns and guns ranging from a pistol to an uzi. I suspect most of us at the lower end of society would be about the same figures. Most of us don't have a need for a gun so we don't bother.
I'd imagine bombing feels different, less visceral, you would separate yourself from the bomb and the effect. But to walk into a theatre and shoot hundreds while knowing its for Putin. They'd have to be truly odd.
That's not the way these things happen. The people pulling the trigger would likely be actual jihadists, the people directing them, sponsoring them, providing support could be state controlled agents who in turn answer to the FSB/GRU. Russia has fought a lot of very dirty wars and carried out a lot of assassinations using proxies.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
Yes. I have never seen a video of a killing, and whenever some idiot posts one on here (or elsewhere on the net) I close down the page or app so I cannot see it. On balance, I’d rather @Leon talked about great wine, French landscapes, and gourmet restaurants.
How the fuck do you get your news if you turn off the tv or phone or laptop screen as soon as it shows anything “upsetting”?
How do you know what is happening in Gaza? Or Ukraine? Or Sudan? Or Syria? Or anywhere?
Do you just read written reports where they asterisk out the words “dead” and replace it with “probably asleep”?
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
Yes whatever YAWN. It’s news. I am interested in news. I watch it
You revel in images of pain and hurt; that much is obvious from your words on here, and some of your books.
Many decades ago, the Sunday Times had a picture of a Palestinian suicide bomber in its magazine. It was a head, lying on the pavement, undamaged with eyes closed. But no body. I wish to God I had never seen it as I can still visualise it, and try to avoid such images where I can.
In Putin's current adventure, I was in the kill-all-Russian-invaders mode. Until I saw a picture of a lad, who could not have been over twenty, sitting in the cab of a loggies lorry. It brought home to me that they are people too, being sent by an evil regime to do evil acts. I want them to get out of Ukraine; but if that can be done without any ore deaths, so be it. Unfortunately Ukraine surrendering to Russia will lead to millions more deaths.
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
Yes whatever YAWN. It’s news. I am interested in news. I watch it
You revel in images of pain and hurt; that much is obvious from your words on here, and some of your books.
Many decades ago, the Sunday Times had a picture of a Palestinian suicide bomber in its magazine. It was a head, lying on the pavement, undamaged with eyes closed. But no body. I wish to God I had never seen it as I can still visualise it, and try to avoid such images where I can.
In Putin's current adventure, I was in the kill-all-Russian-invaders mode. Until I saw a picture of a lad, who could not have been over twenty, sitting in the cab of a loggies lorry. It brought home to me that they are people too, being sent by an evil regime to do evil acts. I want them to get out of Ukraine; but if that can be done without any ore deaths, so be it. Unfortunately Ukraine surrendering to Russia will lead to millions more deaths.
Oh do shut up. How do you have an opinion on, say, Gaza, if you firmly refuse to watch any news about it?
How can you have an opinion on October 7 if you’ve not actually seen any images of it?
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
That's true and yet I chatted to my Irish wife about this earlier and she said something along the lines of, "imagine having so many people who don't like you they you don't know who is responsible for such an attack."
It's something of a feature of an imperial power that they make themselves lots of enemies. Russia have been bombing the shit out of Syria for years, and obviously plenty of other Muslim places before that, so Islamic terrorism wouldn't exactly be a surprise.
Ukraine certainly has nothing to do with the shooting/explosions in the Crocus City Hall (Moscow Region, Russia). It makes no sense whatsoever.
First of all, Ukraine has been fighting with the Russian army for more than two years. And everything in this war will be decided only on the battlefield. Only by the quantity of weapons and qualitative military decisions. Terrorist attacks do not solve any problems...
Secondly, Ukraine has never resorted to the use of terrorist methods. It is always pointless. Unlike, by the way, Russia itself, which uses terrorist attacks in the current war against Ukraine and earlier in its history attacked its own citizens to initiate subsequent "counter-terrorist actions" against protesting ethnic groups. Suffice it to recall the events on the Kashirskoye highway (Moscow) and in Volgodonsk...
And thirdly, long before the events in #Crocus_City_Hall, we had heard public warnings from foreign embassies stationed in #Moscow about the possibility of such bloody excesses.
As a conclusion: there is not the slightest doubt that the events in the Moscow suburbs will contribute to a sharp increase in military propaganda, accelerated militarization, expanded mobilization, and, ultimately, the scaling up of the war. And also to justify manifest genocidal strikes against the civilian population of Ukraine... https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1771258890170057119?
The villains in Moscow look like calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Playing devil's advocate: what expertise do you have to know the difference between 'calm professional soldiers, well versed in using guns', and some yokels who have been playing with AK-47s in the backwoods?
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
Sadly, I’m basing this opinion on the many hundreds of videos I’ve now watched - as we have all watched - of solders and terrorists and mass shooters in action
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
I haven't, why on God's green earth would I? I don't need that in my brain thanks.
Because it’s impossible to avoid? If you’ve managed to never watch a video or murder or shooting or terrorism in the last 20 years of social media and universal camera phones then bravo, that’s impressive
It's very easy to avoid, unless you're a sick ghoul who hunts it out. I see them occasionally, and rapidly try to skip over them.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
Yes whatever YAWN. It’s news. I am interested in news. I watch it
You revel in images of pain and hurt; that much is obvious from your words on here, and some of your books.
Many decades ago, the Sunday Times had a picture of a Palestinian suicide bomber in its magazine. It was a head, lying on the pavement, undamaged with eyes closed. But no body. I wish to God I had never seen it as I can still visualise it, and try to avoid such images where I can.
In Putin's current adventure, I was in the kill-all-Russian-invaders mode. Until I saw a picture of a lad, who could not have been over twenty, sitting in the cab of a loggies lorry. It brought home to me that they are people too, being sent by an evil regime to do evil acts. I want them to get out of Ukraine; but if that can be done without any ore deaths, so be it. Unfortunately Ukraine surrendering to Russia will lead to millions more deaths.
Oh do shut up. How do you have an opinion on, say, Gaza, if you firmly refuse to watch any news about it?
How can you have an opinion on October 7 if you’ve not actually seen any images of it?
I watch news; I try to avoid the gory. bloody stuff that is apparently the only way you get tumescent without little blue pills or paying girls.
It's actually quite easy to avoid the gory stuff. And if you think it's going to be gory, skip over it.
That’s doesn’t mean it’s a false flag. Necessarily. That could just be Putin exploiting an actual terror attack. If it’s happened anyway much better to blame it on Ukraine, given the circs
All kicking off in Russia. Presumably will be blamed on Ukraine (which seems unlikely), followed by bloodcurdling nuclear threats.
The US issued a warning about a terrorist attack a couple of weeks ago. How did they know?
They've been pretty good on Russian intel (see the 2022 invasion).
Assuming this isn't a false flag, which seems unlikely given Russia is not looking for an excuse for an anti-terror operation, and was not a lone wolf (reports suggest multiple gunmen), it's hard to think of likely possibilities:
- Russian anti-Putin forces (unlikely, they've not targeted civilians to date) - Chechens (unlikely, they've been very quiet for a long time) - Ukrainians (unlikely - see anti-Putin dissidents, and given Ukraine relies on Western goodwill) - Syrian or Iranian rebels hitting at a country supporting their regime (unlikely, they're more likely to focus on their own leaders) - Russian ultra-nationalists who want a white Slavic Russia (maybe, but why target this rock concert?)
Usually when there's a terrorist attack there's an obvious culprit, even if that isn't always the actual one. Not this time
But Kasparov thinks it's false flag to justify mobilisation.
False flags are pretty rare. THAT SAID, I think it is highly likely that the Russians will need to go to full mobilization next. So, who knows?
Does Putin need another false flag? He’s just won the election with 837% of the vote. He’s now officially calling Ukraine a war. If it’s an actual war he can mobilise all of Russia. Navalny is dead and opposition is nugatory
I don’t think he needs to have guys shooting up moscow causing fear and panic…?
I fear he is going to get some kind of “win” in Ukraine
Unless the Ukrainian line collapses completely - which is possible - then it is likely that it will be a long, long grind. Of course Ukraine could sue for peace. But Russian advances are at incredibly slow pace, with - one presumes - pretty horrendous losses.
There are so many drones in use now, and Ukraine has such an artillery shell shortage, that they're using lots of drones to defend against Russian attacks and the losses on Russian (it Indian/Cuban/Ghanaian) infantry are horrendous.
Comments
So, actually, the current chancellor is doing what you advocate.
A General Election on 2nd May 2024, same day as locals like 2015, is not going to happen.
Parliament has to be dissolutioned and dissolvelated on Tuesday 26th. It’s not going to happen.
TSE - I have PM’d you a header called
I’M MOONRABBIT - AND I PROMISED YOU MAY 2ND GENERAL ELECTION
In the internal message system because I feel PBers are waiting for an apology. 😒
Have you got it?
If it weren't for Sunak's NIMBYism I'd vote Tory for what Hunt is doing.
With the Queen I can say I was just meh . She lived to a great age and I wouldn’t have classed her life as tragic . I was more wondering how weird it would be to not have her around . What was surprising was how the country moved on quite smoothly .
The latest Westminster polls have Labour 35 points ahead in the capital (52-17) which would be a 9.5% swing on 2019 which is much less than the national UNS which is coming in at 16-18% currently so what is the difference? If London (9.5%), Scotland (12.5%) and Wales (9%) are swinging much less than the UNS, there must be some huge swings in provincial England.
R&W Red Wall swing is 16%, R&W Blue Wall is 16.5% - R&W national swing is 19.5%. The Clacton polling gave us a clue - Reform are polling best where the Conservatives are strongest. The swing without Farage was 24.5% from Conservative to Labour (Con down 34, Lab up 15). I'd be looking at some of these "safest" Conservative seats for the best Reform numbers.
It’s been clear government policy for nearly 30 years to increase the age when pensions can be drawn. I’m sorry they weren’t paying attention. But they don’t deserve billions when there are far more important investments that are needed
Another possibility is Dagestan. See Makhachkala.
Treating NI and IT as interchangable, Sunakomics is to cut the rate and freeze (i.e. cut in real terms) the thresholds. That's a bigger bill at the bottom and a cut at the top.
Increase the rate of tax as you cut the rate of NI, then it's worth talking.
If the IRA had managed that in NI and actually fought some pitched battles, it would definitely have been described as fighting.
EDIT: there’s plenty of Chechens not happy with the current Putin puppets, as well.
@TSE
I’m not an IT expert 🤦♀️
I’m a royalist and think Kate is Great but that was a stupid error and it was handled badly
Anyway now it’s all known she can retreat in peace to her family 👍🙏
This site, which he founded twenty years ago has played a significant part in all our lives, and the way that people of divergent political opinions can interact has been to the good of British democracy at a difficult time.
I wonder whether Robert and TSE, in discussion with Mike, might think about setting up a fund perhaps for us to contribute in his name to a dementia charity, or another charity that might be dear to his heart. In the alternative, some other endeavour in his name, perhaps a lecture on a political subject at a university or at some other public body.
I don't know what others might think
But the crunch will come next week when people need to decide whether to take their money or to invest it in the company
We should definitely do some kind of site charitable event. Or events.
That’s what it must have looked like inside The Bataclan
In amongst, I went to Trinidad for less than 24 hours. I lost track of the number of Trinidadians asking me to take flowers.
Weird time indeed.
The Moscow match was a particular bust.
https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1771225285083472283
Again.
I am with @Malmesbury on this: creatives changing stuff purely for the sake of changing it. The ludicrous thing is the new kit is otherwise really smart!
The Bank of England forecast inflation at 2% when it was going on to hit 11%. So clearly it does not understand inflation and has little ability to forecast it accurately as it is required to do. It tells us the inflation was caused by the Ukraine war and energy prices which it could not predict. So how come inflation was already 3 times target before the invasion? That main part of the inflation was not caused by the war. How come Japan and China kept inflation down to around 2% despite having to import much dearer energy as a result of the war?
Now we are told they cannot risk lower rates because there could be more trouble in the Red Sea. Freight rates and insurance rates are already well up and much shipping has been diverted to the long route, so markets know all about that pressure on prices. Meanwhile the money supply has been squeezed, credit is dear and scarcer, mortgage demand has fallen and the Bank ignores all these obvious signs that inflation will come down.
Worst of all is the gross distortion of its balance sheet. They bought far too many bonds at crazy prices in 2021 only now to want to sell them at huge losses and send the taxpayer the bill. Why? The ECB that made the same inflationary mistake is not doubling the error by selling bonds in the market. The Fed is not getting reimbursement from its Treasury. Only the Bank insists on double austerity with squeezed money and less public spending or tax cuts as the taxpayer picks up the bill of the UK’s uniquely bad bond investor, the Bank of England. Never has the Bank lost so much money so quickly for no good purpose.
We need an urgent change of Bank policy, Stop selling the bonds. Cut the base rate by 25 bp. Switzerland, Poland, Hungary, Brazil, China have started cutting their rates.
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/03/22/the-bank-gets-it-wrong-again/
On the bond sales, I think this is becoming a totemic indicator of seriousness about good governance. Is a prospective PM willing to challenge the Bank on this, or are they happy to imperil the nation's finances whilst moaning on about 'responsibility' and there being 'no headroom in the public finances' - effectively flagrant lies when they know full well that wheelbarrows full of public money are being emptied into the Bank of England furnace. Starmer and his pathetic crew have shown their colours - it remains to be seen whether any Conservative leadership challengers are willing to grasp the nettle.
Which supports several different theses. Chechen soldiers angry at Putin? Islamists who want payback for Syria? Hired assassins doing a false flag?
Sam Tarry’s lawyers have written to the party claiming the online voting system Anonyvoter was used to harm his re-selection bid"
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1771227522627186837
I assumed LostPassword was referring to that particular battle ("recently"), not the entire and longer-term state of play in Ingushetia.
Whatever the semantics, today's job in Moscow could well be the same outfit.
Soldiering is about more than firing guns; terrorism is sadly much simpler. But soldiers can be terrorists (see events passim).
And it utterly coincidentally allowed Putin to start the second Chechen war.
I don’t think he needs to have guys shooting up moscow causing fear and panic…?
I fear he is going to get some kind of “win” in Ukraine
Not soldiers by a long way, or actually any good at more than shooting unarmed people.
Heavily armed and seemed quite relaxed as they wandered around, committing mass murder.
They have not remotely suffered an injustice like those caught up in the blood compensation and Post Office scandals. Cliff edges are unfair but we have them all over the place in the tax and benefits system.
Lots of sympathy for Catherine - and William, who now has a father and wife with cancer and 3 young children to care for. A tough time for them all so I hope the trolls and press leave them alone. A member of my family was recently diagnosed with cancer - with a good prognosis - but the treatment is still unpleasant and the worry is constant.
Tormenting people in the public eye at times like these does not reflect well on those doing it.
There is a certain type that you can spot. They do it methodically and calmly, they don’t shout or rant, they barely break a sweat. They don’t run anywhere: they maybe jog; there is zero emotion
It looks “professional”, it certainly looks like they have shot people before
So my guess would be soldiers more likely than religious militants
But yes, it’s just a guess from an amateur on a balcony in a jungle in Colombia
If it's pinned only on Islamists, that wouldn't be particularly great support for full-scale mobilisation. Ukrainian involvement would have to be alleged. (This assessment changes if Islamist terrorism in Russia scales up and Russia is at war on two fronts.)
Whereas the Hamas militants on October 7 were cool and generally (not always) calm. Professional Hamas “soldiers”
Maybe a militant group ignored and left to it, who knows?
None, as far as I am aware, were trained soldiers to any degree. Yet in the last two cases their rampages lasted not just minutes, but hours. If someone gets it in their head to kill others for *reasons*, and they have access to guns, and know how to shoot them reasonably well, they can cause carnage.
You seem to revel in them, and telling people about them.
But if you can access such things, you don't need much 'skill' or training to cause mayhem. The key is to prevent access.
I have huge sympathy for her and her family. I was diagnosed with leukaemia at 39, weeks short of my 40th birthday, which I spent in an isolation room. But luckily for me my cancer was treatable and here I am wasting my life on PB…
You get offered what you click on.
I get lots of ads for very expensive machine tools.
Anyone who deliberately watches snuff videos is pretty sick.
He was said to be preternaturally calm and he was also supremely methodical. But that’s cause he’d spent years planning the attack and training mind and body
My guess is these guys will turn out to have some training, probably a military background. But who knows
One weird thing: there’s a video of one of them being arrested (allegedly). The Russian police are not known for their kindly and forgiving ways and these are mass shooters who’ve just slaughtered dozens and injured hundreds and they arrest one of them rather than gunning him down?
Here’s the video (no blood or shooting)
https://x.com/geraldavery17/status/1771265576339427483?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
There are legitimate reasons for trying to catch one alive (for questioning etc). You might also wonder if this is suggestive of a false flag (“we won’t kill you”)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings
300 dead.
And it may well have been a false flag. The ends justify the means and all.
@MoonRabbit ‘s rationale was sound, and she has been courteous by conceding the point. No apology required.
But Twitter has recently (ahem) got lots of pornographic ads. In a few cases as replies to posts about steam trains. Now I know a Duchess without her skirt on will get any hotblooded Englishman going, but that's a but much...
Explanation: Duchess:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LMS_Coronation_Class#/media/File:6229_Duchess_of_Hamilton_at_the_National_Railway_Museum.jpg
The 'skirt' is the lower bit of the fairing.
But that's a different matter. And there's a large difference between a handgun and an AK-47.
I wanted to find the truth about what Hamas did on October 7 so I could decide - for myself - whether it was a barbarous attack on total civilians, as alleged by the Israelis, or whether the Israelis were lying or exaggerating
It was a big moral debate and I wasn’t going to rely on 2nd hand accounts to help me make my mind up. I presume you did which explains so much of your discourse on EVERYTHING
So I watched enough of the videos of Hamas on October 7 (and they were horrific). And I saw enough to make up my own mind. Hamas made a terrible assault on totally innocent people - men, women and children. Israeli wrath was justified
I decided to tell no one because I couldn't see how it would help. it's the loneliest place in the world and there's no clear way of dealing with it.
What it must be like to have to face it with the glare of publicity I can hardly imagine. You feel like everyone's looking at you anyway.... She might well recover but I doubt anything will feel quite the same again.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/22/congress/gallagher-leaving-early-00148586
https://x.com/runews/status/1771265339847795157?s=46
Putin’s such a tosser.
How do you know what is happening in Gaza? Or Ukraine? Or Sudan? Or Syria? Or anywhere?
Do you just read written reports where they asterisk out the words “dead” and replace it with “probably asleep”?
Many decades ago, the Sunday Times had a picture of a Palestinian suicide bomber in its magazine. It was a head, lying on the pavement, undamaged with eyes closed. But no body. I wish to God I had never seen it as I can still visualise it, and try to avoid such images where I can.
In Putin's current adventure, I was in the kill-all-Russian-invaders mode. Until I saw a picture of a lad, who could not have been over twenty, sitting in the cab of a loggies lorry. It brought home to me that they are people too, being sent by an evil regime to do evil acts. I want them to get out of Ukraine; but if that can be done without any ore deaths, so be it. Unfortunately Ukraine surrendering to Russia will lead to millions more deaths.
Aggregate Result of the 160 Council By-Elections for 162 Seats Since LE2023:
LAB: (-2)
LDM:(+20)
CON: (-18)
GRN: (+6)
IND: (+2)
LOC: (-2)
PLC: (-1)
SNP: (-5)
So LDs and Greens make progress Blue and Red Tories go backwards
SKS Fans please explain
How can you have an opinion on October 7 if you’ve not actually seen any images of it?
It's something of a feature of an imperial power that they make themselves lots of enemies. Russia have been bombing the shit out of Syria for years, and obviously plenty of other Muslim places before that, so Islamic terrorism wouldn't exactly be a surprise.
Sorry everyone we can't vote Labour. Owen says so
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68622127.amp
First of all, Ukraine has been fighting with the Russian army for more than two years. And everything in this war will be decided only on the battlefield. Only by the quantity of weapons and qualitative military decisions. Terrorist attacks do not solve any problems...
Secondly, Ukraine has never resorted to the use of terrorist methods. It is always pointless. Unlike, by the way, Russia itself, which uses terrorist attacks in the current war against Ukraine and earlier in its history attacked its own citizens to initiate subsequent "counter-terrorist actions" against protesting ethnic groups. Suffice it to recall the events on the Kashirskoye highway (Moscow) and in Volgodonsk...
And thirdly, long before the events in #Crocus_City_Hall, we had heard public warnings from foreign embassies stationed in #Moscow about the possibility of such bloody excesses.
As a conclusion: there is not the slightest doubt that the events in the Moscow suburbs will contribute to a sharp increase in military propaganda, accelerated militarization, expanded mobilization, and, ultimately, the scaling up of the war. And also to justify manifest genocidal strikes against the civilian population of Ukraine...
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1771258890170057119?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgdly318jeo
Okay...
It's actually quite easy to avoid the gory stuff. And if you think it's going to be gory, skip over it.
You revel in it.