politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Rochester campaign moves into its final frenetic day
The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched earlier this month and has attracted a fair bit of publicity.
Comments
-
First?
0 -
second0
-
Margin to how many decimal places Mike?0
-
WAG: UKIP 9.37%0
-
UKIP win by 4.57%0
-
Potentially very expensive eurofiasco in the Speccie
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/
That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the bill
In February 2014, riding high on the string of favourable decisions it had under its belt, Bank Mellat sued London again, this time demanding £2.3bn in compensation for the losses it incurred following the “negligently” imposed sanctions of 2009. The case is still pending, but if the courts find the Treasury guilty, Mr. Cameron would be in quite a pickle. How will he explain to British taxpayers that legal shenanigans prompted by Brussels’ wrongful decisions to sanction foreign entities will now deprive them of billions of pounds? How will the public react upon hearing that British money is being used to prop up the flagging bottom line of an Iranian bank?
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"0 -
0
-
Ta.MikeSmithson said:0 -
That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the billIndigo said:Potentially very expensive eurofiasco in the Speccie
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/
In February 2014, riding high on the string of favourable decisions it had under its belt, Bank Mellat sued London again, this time demanding £2.3bn in compensation for the losses it incurred following the “negligently” imposed sanctions of 2009. The case is still pending, but if the courts find the Treasury guilty, Mr. Cameron would be in quite a pickle. How will he explain to British taxpayers that legal shenanigans prompted by Brussels’ wrongful decisions to sanction foreign entities will now deprive them of billions of pounds? How will the public react upon hearing that British money is being used to prop up the flagging bottom line of an Iranian bank?
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
Is it within the power of the government to say that any decision made as the result of a direct, legally binding, instruction by the EU cannot result in a law suit against the UK Treasury as long as they went no further than instructed?
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?0 -
Excellent embedded quiz Mike: congrats to all.0
-
Is it within the power of the government to say that any decision made as the result of a direct, legally binding, instruction by the EU cannot result in a law suit against the UK Treasury as long as they went no further than instructed?Richard_Tyndall said:
That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the billIndigo said:Potentially very expensive eurofiasco in the Speccie
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/
In February 2014, riding high on the string of favourable decisions it had under its belt, Bank Mellat sued London again, this time demanding £2.3bn in compensation for the losses it incurred following the “negligently” imposed sanctions of 2009. The case is still pending, but if the courts find the Treasury guilty, Mr. Cameron would be in quite a pickle. How will he explain to British taxpayers that legal shenanigans prompted by Brussels’ wrongful decisions to sanction foreign entities will now deprive them of billions of pounds? How will the public react upon hearing that British money is being used to prop up the flagging bottom line of an Iranian bank?
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?
Dream on. The above case is already before the courts.
A £25,000,000,000 bill should help nudge the UK to 'Exit' though.0 -
The Rochester poster is interesting.
A casual voter may not have noticed how this Oxford PPE pointscorer was their Con MP so recently.0 -
That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the billIndigo said:Potentially very expensive eurofiasco in the Speccie
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/
In February 2014, riding high on the string of favourable decisions it had under its belt, Bank Mellat sued London again, this time demanding £2.3bn in compensation for the losses it incurred following the “negligently” imposed sanctions of 2009. The case is still pending, but if the courts find the Treasury guilty, Mr. Cameron would be in quite a pickle. How will he explain to British taxpayers that legal shenanigans prompted by Brussels’ wrongful decisions to sanction foreign entities will now deprive them of billions of pounds? How will the public react upon hearing that British money is being used to prop up the flagging bottom line of an Iranian bank?
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
This is what third party procedures were invented for. The UK should convene the Commission as a third party and seek a right of relief.0 -
Is it within the power of the government to say that any decision made as the result of a direct, legally binding, instruction by the EU cannot result in a law suit against the UK Treasury as long as they went no further than instructed?Richard_Tyndall said:
That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the billIndigo said:Potentially very expensive eurofiasco in the Speccie
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/
In February 2014, riding high on the string of favourable decisions it had under its belt, Bank Mellat sued London again, this time demanding £2.3bn in compensation for the losses it incurred following the “negligently” imposed sanctions of 2009. The case is still pending, but if the courts find the Treasury guilty, Mr. Cameron would be in quite a pickle. How will he explain to British taxpayers that legal shenanigans prompted by Brussels’ wrongful decisions to sanction foreign entities will now deprive them of billions of pounds? How will the public react upon hearing that British money is being used to prop up the flagging bottom line of an Iranian bank?
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?
The EU authorities are not the ones that have imposed the sanctions in the UK, they have been imposed by HMG. Therefore, if someone has a case that those sanctions were imposed illegally then that case has to be against HMG and must be heard in the UK courts. The problem seems to arise from the fact that said EU authorities are refusing to provide the evidence on which the decision to impose the sanctions was made and that leaves HMG out on a limb.
A court can only decide on the evidence placed before it. If HMG is unable to provide sufficient evidence to justify its actions then it must expect to lose and the taxpayer to be on the hook for damages. HMG's recourse from there must be an action against the EU authorities and good luck with that.
If the cases are lost and the UK does get hit for substantial damages on the scale suggested by the Speccie then it is likely to become a political matter and I am not sure that the Conservatives or Labour will benefit.0 -
England at 1.73 to score more than one try. Seems easy money but no doubt England will conspire against me!0
-
If the damage was caused by an act of a European Union institution, the EU institution is liable in accorance with the principles governing the liability of EU institutions. What in fact occurred is that the Supreme Court ([2014] AC 700) quashed the Financial Restrictions (Iran) Order 2009 SI 2009/2725. As Lord Sumption JSC makes clear at p. 765 at [8], the restrictions unlawfully made by the Treasury against Bank Mellat entered into force before the bank was made the subject of a general asset frieze under EU legislation. The damage to Bank Mellat was therefore caused by the unlawful exercise of powers conferred by Parliament on the British government of the latter's volition.Richard_Tyndall said:Is it within the power of the government to say that any decision made as the result of a direct, legally binding, instruction by the EU cannot result in a law suit against the UK Treasury as long as they went no further than instructed?
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?
Bank Mellat's current action against the Treasury is in negligence, and they must therefore demonstrate that that Treasury owed them a duty of care in accordance with the principles laid down by Lord Bridge of Harwich in Caparo Industries Plc v Dickman [1990] 2 AC 605. It must be fair, just and reasonable that the law should impose a duty of a given scope upon the one party for the benefit of the other. It seems unlikely that a common law duty will be imposed here for obvious reasons of public policy, but since the Supreme Court's bizarre decision on the negligence point in Smith v Ministry of Defence [2014] AC 52 anything is possible.0 -
Talk about people in glasshouses throwing stones. I wonder if the Tories will be deploying similar posters in places like Witney at the coming GE lol.foxinsoxuk said:The Rochester poster is interesting.
A casual voter may not have noticed how this Oxford PPE pointscorer was their Con MP so recently.0 -
The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.0 -
I went for UKIP with 7.77% margin.
0 -
I'm backing South Africa today, England last beat South Africa when Tony Blair was PM.Swiss_Bob said:England at 1.73 to score more than one try. Seems easy money but no doubt England will conspire against me!
0 -
http://www.salon.com/2014/11/13/what_really_happened_in_beijing_putin_obama_xi_and_the_back_story_the_media_wont_tell_you/
Good article on recent occurrences in the Orient. Although it ignores US shale oil will soon go bankrupt at this oil price as evidended by the collapse in the bond prices of producers.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
0 -
There's a ComRes online poll out tonight with some interesting supplementaries
Ed Miliband did the right thing by giving money to the person begging in the street
Ed Miliband did the wrong thing by giving money to the person begging in the street
I can imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister
The fact that David Cameron went to Eton makes it harder for him to be a good prime minister for the whole country
I trust David Cameron to stand up for working people
I trust Ed Miliband to stand up for working people
David Cameron will make make deep cuts to public services including the NHS and schools if he is Prime Minister after the next general election
Ed Miliband will make deep cuts to public services including the NHS and schools if he is prime minister after the next general election
As Nigel Farage is to be portrayed in a spoof documentary for Channel 4, we have also asked people which actors they think should play each of the four main party leaders.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/11/15/poll-alert-49/0 -
This is a local by-election for local people!MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
0 -
I thought two tries for England was a better bet, their reputation of only kicking points is somewhat out of date. Fingers crossed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm backing South Africa today, England last beat South Africa when Tony Blair was PM.Swiss_Bob said:England at 1.73 to score more than one try. Seems easy money but no doubt England will conspire against me!
0 -
We played well for the first half last week, if we can play like that for the whole match then you should be a winner.Swiss_Bob said:
I thought two tries for England was a better bet, their reputation of only kicking points is somewhat out of date. Fingers crossed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm backing South Africa today, England last beat South Africa when Tony Blair was PM.Swiss_Bob said:England at 1.73 to score more than one try. Seems easy money but no doubt England will conspire against me!
0 -
You can click the "Summary" button from within the form to see the averages so far.
Currently breaking 2-1 in favour of UKIP over the Conservatives.
0 -
Depends what you mean by local. Reckless had stood unsuccessfully in two previous GE in the constituency (or its predecessor) prior to winning in 2010 and was a local councillor. He has hardly been parachuted in.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
How many MPs were actually born in the constituency they represent?
This does highlight how difficult it is for either candidate to get traction. Neither can attack the record of the other directly since Reckless would be attacking the party he supported until a couple of months ago and Tolhurst would be attacking her own party.
Funnily enough probably the only attack that Tolhurst cuold make is the one TSE uses (not the slap headed bit) but I get the impression that falls flat as well given that Reckless can easily claim it was the party that changed not him.0 -
Lab maj 4.5 on BF...0
-
That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the billIndigo said:Potentially very expensive eurofiasco in the Speccie
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/
In February 2014, riding high on the string of favourable decisions it had under its belt, Bank Mellat sued London again, this time demanding £2.3bn in compensation for the losses it incurred following the “negligently” imposed sanctions of 2009. The case is still pending, but if the courts find the Treasury guilty, Mr. Cameron would be in quite a pickle. How will he explain to British taxpayers that legal shenanigans prompted by Brussels’ wrongful decisions to sanction foreign entities will now deprive them of billions of pounds? How will the public react upon hearing that British money is being used to prop up the flagging bottom line of an Iranian bank?
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
Actually sanctions were imposed at the behest of the US not the EU. Still we are a nation of laws so encouraging news.0 -
RodCrosby said:
Lab maj 4.5 on BF...
Is it possible to download the data, or see a chart, of the Betfair data over time?
0 -
The "straight choice" is a very common format when you are trying to attract tacticals as this CON leaflet is doing.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
We have first past the post and a lot of people don't want to waste their vote on a loser but have an impact on the outcome.
0 -
Can I guess again as just noticed my estimated 2.68% Ukip win margin is exactly the same as Terry Sycamore!0
-
Both sound pretty repellent to me. I would vote for neither.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Talk about people in glasshouses throwing stones. I wonder if the Tories will be deploying similar posters in places like Witney at the coming GE lol.foxinsoxuk said:The Rochester poster is interesting.
A casual voter may not have noticed how this Oxford PPE pointscorer was their Con MP so recently.0 -
Click hereMarkHopkins said:RodCrosby said:Lab maj 4.5 on BF...
Is it possible to download the data, or see a chart, of the Betfair data over time?
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Then, click the little graph icon next to Labour Majority
Edit: Once you've got the graph up, I've found choosing the "inverse axis" option fun
0 -
Afternoon all.
The Nojam interface gizmo is awesome - fingers crossed it holds up until the results come in next week- good luck PBers.0 -
Can the one person so far expecting a Green victory in Rochester and Strood make themselves known.
I and several other PBers would like to offer you odds on that.0 -
Agreed. The is the best way of doing competitions that we've ever had. It is always fun seeing what others have predicted and this widget, specially created for PB this week, allows all the action to take place on the page itself.SimonStClare said:Afternoon all.
The Nojam interface gizmo is awesome - fingers crossed it holds up until the results come in next week- good luck PBers.
0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Click hereMarkHopkins said:RodCrosby said:Lab maj 4.5 on BF...
Is it possible to download the data, or see a chart, of the Betfair data over time?
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Then, click the little graph icon next to Labour Majority
Edit: Once you've got the graph up, I've found choosing the "inverse axis" option fun
Thanks. Not much detail on the graph about dates though...
0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Can the one person so far expecting a Green victory in Rochester and Strood make themselves known.
I and several other PBers would like to offer you odds on that.
Click on 'Results' in the gizmo. It appears to be a 'Simon Whaley'.TheScreamingEagles said:Can the one person so far expecting a Green victory in Rochester and Strood make themselves known.
I and several other PBers would like to offer you odds on that.
0 -
Re Miliband's strategy 'infamy, infamy they've all got it in for me', there's an interesting snippet on the ComRes poll.
I feel sorry for Ed Miliband - 22% agree
No one cares, including a sizable percentage of Labour voters.0 -
A great find OGH, and good to see PB at the forefront of innovation; it certainly has come a long way over the years in terms of interactive data presentation. - cheers for comp btw.MikeSmithson said:
Agreed. The is the best way of doing competitions that we've ever had. It is always fun seeing what others have predicted and this widget, specially created for PB this week, allows all the action to take place on the page itself.SimonStClare said:Afternoon all.
The Nojam interface gizmo is awesome - fingers crossed it holds up until the results come in next week- good luck PBers.0 -
I suppose also it's implying straight in the sense of honest - i.e. Reckless is a devious and mendacious turncoat.MikeSmithson said:
The "straight choice" is a very common format when you are trying to attract tacticals as this CON leaflet is doing.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
We have first past the post and a lot of people don't want to waste their vote on a loser but have an impact on the outcome.0 -
:yawn:
Endex0 -
Have to say it's a pretty weak poster. It comes to something when having studied Politics at Oxford is held against him. Presumably, Kelly Tolhurst hasn't got a degree. Has Shapps/ Green been taking advice from Pol Pot's people?0
-
Yay, England finally get a try.0
-
I thought our very own plastic-muzzie was "Admin-only". If so, why is my Note-3 telling me the following...!
"You can't [sic] flag a moderator's post."
:junior-school:0 -
Easy money!
(Second try)
TSE suffering squeaky bum time.0 -
Corker of a trySwiss_Bob said:Easy money!
(Second try)0 -
It's interesting hearing Nicola Sturgeon's arguments for voting SNP in next year's Westminster election. She's not shying away from not wanting to Conservatives to win but is trying to portray the current situation as it being inevitable that there's going to be another hung parliament and thus no risk voting SNP, as they'll only prop up Labour.
It's a bit of a tough sell as it's obvious Labour losing a significant number of seats to the SNP would greatly increase the chance of the Tories getting the most seats and thus first go at forming a coalition.0 -
Fascinating read. Thanks for that.FalseFlag said:http://www.salon.com/2014/11/13/what_really_happened_in_beijing_putin_obama_xi_and_the_back_story_the_media_wont_tell_you/
Good article on recent occurrences in the Orient. Although it ignores US shale oil will soon go bankrupt at this oil price as evidended by the collapse in the bond prices of producers.
0 -
Just in case anyone's interested if you donate £19 to the Labour Party you will get a special edition Grayson Perry bag in return. Hurray now, while stocks last!0
-
Yes, he agrees there's trouble brewing in Ukraine. What I didn't know was that S Arabia had dropped its prices and some of the thought as to why that was. Obama being useless is not news.Indigo said:
Fascinating read. Thanks for that.FalseFlag said:http://www.salon.com/2014/11/13/what_really_happened_in_beijing_putin_obama_xi_and_the_back_story_the_media_wont_tell_you/
Good article on recent occurrences in the Orient. Although it ignores US shale oil will soon go bankrupt at this oil price as evidended by the collapse in the bond prices of producers.
Not sure US shale 'going bankrupt' means much, it's not a state play, they're private businesses and the US don't export oil and gas yet so as far as I know they are not affected as much by global prices, just their own overproduction. Congress just signed the KXL pipeline off.
0 -
How long before we lose you to Tory HQ? Carswell would struggle to cope ...TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.0 -
Sports Direct dismisses Ed Miliband's zero-hour comments
In response the company ... spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?"
BBC political correspondent Alan Soady said this comment was meant as mockery of Mr Miliband, following recent reports that some Labour figures want him to step down amid poor poll ratings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30069154
0 -
The thought of a Miliband-Sturgeon duopoly will send a few wavering English votes scurrying towards to the Tories.Artist said:It's interesting hearing Nicola Sturgeon's arguments for voting SNP in next year's Westminster election. She's not shying away from not wanting to Conservatives to win but is trying to portray the current situation as it being inevitable that there's going to be another hung parliament and thus no risk voting SNP, as they'll only prop up Labour.
It's a bit of a tough sell as it's obvious Labour losing a significant number of seats to the SNP would greatly increase the chance of the Tories getting the most seats and thus first go at forming a coalition.
Fear will be an enormous driver in May.
0 -
I'll be joining CCHQ in the new year for the election campaign.Scrapheap_as_was said:
How long before we lose you to Tory HQ? Carswell would struggle to cope ...TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Wait to you see my push pollsmessage testing phone calls.0 -
English rugby team = Spurs pre-2014/15 season. Keep getting close but miss out in the end.
Spurs 2014/15 season = Ed Miliband0 -
Nicola Sturgeon..awesome..inspirational..Time to rebuild the wall..0
-
England making sure they don't peak too early for the World Cup next year0
-
I thought this was worth a re-post outlining the 9 seat challenge Ukip has set themselves as after the expected Ukip win at R&S prices are likely to contract.Thursday will be a big GOTV test but the win is likely to be used as a template for these 9 seats,particularly techniques to squeeze the 3rd party vote learnt from the Libs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11153645/Nigel-Farage-to-target-nine-seats-at-General-Election.html0 -
I'm almost surprised they haven't made rude comments about Reckless being a [apparently practicing] Roman Catholic and therefore not to be trusted.ThomasNashe said:
I suppose also it's implying straight in the sense of honest - i.e. Reckless is a devious and mendacious turncoat.MikeSmithson said:
The "straight choice" is a very common format when you are trying to attract tacticals as this CON leaflet is doing.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:The straight choice??
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
We have first past the post and a lot of people don't want to waste their vote on a loser but have an impact on the outcome.
He is also, if Archbishop Cramner is to be believed, Vice Chairman of All Party Parliamentary Pro-Life Group and "as a member of the Home Affairs Select Committee, he interrogated the DPP Keir Starmer QC, demanding to know why, despite all the manifest evidence of crime and illegality, no doctors have been prosecuted either for authorising abortions without medical examination or terminating pregnancies because the foetus happens to be female."
Good for him. Lets hope he increases his majority on Thursday. Rather puts to bed the idea in some quarters that he is unprincipled, and the idea that there are too few people of religion in the UK to make a difference politically.
http://archbishopcranmer.com/rochester-strood-the-christian-case-for-supporting-mark-reckless/0 -
I'm the person who has entered a Green victory in the competition. But that doesn't mean that I expect a Green victory - there's obviously no chance at all of that. I fully expect a UKIP win but I don't wish to profit in any way from their success.TheScreamingEagles said:Can the one person so far expecting a Green victory in Rochester and Strood make themselves known.
I and several other PBers would like to offer you odds on that.
0 -
I found something very interesting UKIP wise.
A few days ago I went on to find some swing maps from the last election, while searching the net I bumped into this:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=184794.0
I scrolled to the bottom to the 2010 swings map and I saw by chance that the seats where UKIP are doing well or are predicted to do well recorded very big swings to the Tories last time.
I did some work on this by using the constituency polls to see how much correlation there is, so I took the polls that showed UKIP up 19% from 2010 in order to give me a nice 25 constituencies out of the 99 polled.
From those 25, 20 were Tory seats, 3 Labour and 2 LD.
The average swing from Labour to Tory in all 25 was 3% higher than the national swing, in fact the Labour vote fell by 10.6% which is way higher that the 6.2% recorded nationwide, in 14 out of 25 seats Labour fell by double digits, in 20 out of 25 seats the Labour vote fell 2% more than the nationwide average and in all seats bar Corby and Folkestone by more than their nationwide average.
My conclusion is that voters that left the Labour party in the 2010GE are going to UKIP and we can find out where UKIP is strong looking where Labour really got hit in the 2010GE.
If you don't believe me look at the 2010 swing map provided by the website above, Clacton is there, Boston too, all of the Thames estuary, and the Thanets, and Grimsby, and Cannock Chase and Walsall North, they are all there in very deep blue swings, which provided my clue.0 -
0
-
There is something very wrong about a prospective Prime Minister smearing the image of a Company for acting in ways that were quite legal when his party was in power. What was noticeable about the 1964 election broadcast re-run recently was that the alternative label for Labour was Socialists. It is time that this label was re-applied to Labour. The name "Labour" is far too neutral a label for a party led by Ed Miliband. Socialists is what they are.MarkHopkins said:
Sports Direct dismisses Ed Miliband's zero-hour comments
In response the company ... spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?"
BBC political correspondent Alan Soady said this comment was meant as mockery of Mr Miliband, following recent reports that some Labour figures want him to step down amid poor poll ratings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30069154
0 -
TSE,
I haven't been able to find your entry.
But I have found a 'Traitorous pigdogoutinMay'.
Anything to do with you, perchance?0 -
Yes to both of those. You need to have built up enough points from betting to get access to the raw data. However there is a chart button right there on the page.MarkHopkins said:RodCrosby said:Lab maj 4.5 on BF...
Is it possible to download the data, or see a chart, of the Betfair data over time?0 -
Interesting selection of seats. I am surprised that Great Yarmouth is so far down UKIPs target list. From what my elder brother, who lives in the area, tells me UKIP should do well there. Perhaps it will feature in the list of second places that may form a future "second tranche".volcanopete said:I thought this was worth a re-post outlining the 9 seat challenge Ukip has set themselves as after the expected Ukip win at R&S prices are likely to contract.Thursday will be a big GOTV test but the win is likely to be used as a template for these 9 seats,particularly techniques to squeeze the 3rd party vote learnt from the Libs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11153645/Nigel-Farage-to-target-nine-seats-at-General-Election.html
That said going for nine seats does seem to have a ring of realism about it. If UKIP get six seats I think they will have done very well.0 -
What irony.ThomasNashe said:Have to say it's a pretty weak poster. It comes to something when having studied Politics at Oxford is held against him. Presumably, Kelly Tolhurst hasn't got a degree. Has Shapps/ Green been taking advice from Pol Pot's people?
I think the next step for the Tories is Eton bashing "don't vote for the UKIP candidate because he has gone to Eton, vote Tory instead, because we haven't got anyone who has gone to Eton".0 -
A (little old now) poll for Great Yarmouth has CON 33, UKIP 31, LAB 28, LD 3.HurstLlama said:
Interesting selection of seats. I am surprised that Great Yarmouth is so far down UKIPs target list. From what my elder brother, who lives in the area, tells me UKIP should do well there. Perhaps it will feature in the list of second places that may form a future "second tranche".volcanopete said:I thought this was worth a re-post outlining the 9 seat challenge Ukip has set themselves as after the expected Ukip win at R&S prices are likely to contract.Thursday will be a big GOTV test but the win is likely to be used as a template for these 9 seats,particularly techniques to squeeze the 3rd party vote learnt from the Libs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11153645/Nigel-Farage-to-target-nine-seats-at-General-Election.html
That said going for nine seats does seem to have a ring of realism about it. If UKIP get six seats I think they will have done very well.
So I expect UKIP to be in a very good position to take the seat in May.0 -
Laid England in the football. Expect to cash it out at some point.0
-
Not me.Ninoinoz said:TSE,
I haven't been able to find your entry.
But I have found a 'Traitorous pigdogoutinMay'.
Anything to do with you, perchance?
I haven't made my entry yet.
A friend of mine is out canvassing in Rochester and Strood today, I expect to hear some feedback either tonight or tomorrow and I'll make my prediction then.0 -
UKIP by 14%. I canvassed a very left wing part of Rochester, last Saturday. They were non-voters, Labour, and Green, in that order.0
-
If it's not tse then who ..... hmm...TheScreamingEagles said:
Not me.Ninoinoz said:TSE,
I haven't been able to find your entry.
But I have found a 'Traitorous pigdogoutinMay'.
Anything to do with you, perchance?
I haven't made my entry yet.
A friend of mine is out canvassing in Rochester and Strood today, I expect to hear some feedback either tonight or tomorrow and I'll make my prediction then.0 -
Not this AGAIN!Speedy said:
What irony.ThomasNashe said:Have to say it's a pretty weak poster. It comes to something when having studied Politics at Oxford is held against him. Presumably, Kelly Tolhurst hasn't got a degree. Has Shapps/ Green been taking advice from Pol Pot's people?
I think the next step for the Tories is Eton bashing "don't vote for the UKIP candidate because he has gone to Eton, vote Tory instead, because we haven't got anyone who has gone to Eton".
It's the UKIP 'anti-establishment' bollocks which is the target here.... jeez. i'd have mentioned the value of his pension racked up already in a handful of years as an establishment MP too of course... not the Carswell hundred's of thousands mind but still many tens of thousands.0 -
I hope I wasn't the only person to casually look at the form and without thinking put their predicted winner percentage rather than the margin? Oh well, I tried entering a second time to get it right.
Incidentally, my copy of Sex,Lies and the Ballot Box, received for predicting the PCC Election, arrived this morning, and having looked at a dozen or so of the chapters, it's pretty good.0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Proper November day, with mist from dawn till dusk. Stark contrast to October.0 -
Bank Mellat can only claim damages to the extent that is has lost money. And the court can only award damages that were the direct result of British actions. Now, while the court may find in its favour, there is absolutely no chance of a multi-billion pound settlement, simply because the bank does not have UK operations of a large enough size. If it wins (which it probably won't for the reasons stated by LIAMT), I very much doubt it'd get more than £20m or so.HurstLlama said:The EU authorities are not the ones that have imposed the sanctions in the UK, they have been imposed by HMG. Therefore, if someone has a case that those sanctions were imposed illegally then that case has to be against HMG and must be heard in the UK courts. The problem seems to arise from the fact that said EU authorities are refusing to provide the evidence on which the decision to impose the sanctions was made and that leaves HMG out on a limb.
A court can only decide on the evidence placed before it. If HMG is unable to provide sufficient evidence to justify its actions then it must expect to lose and the taxpayer to be on the hook for damages. HMG's recourse from there must be an action against the EU authorities and good luck with that.
If the cases are lost and the UK does get hit for substantial damages on the scale suggested by the Speccie then it is likely to become a political matter and I am not sure that the Conservatives or Labour will benefit.0 -
@FalseFlag
re US shale oil (really, tight oil)
If the oil price is $60, large parts of the US cease to be economic and lots of small (over-indebted) operators will go bust.
But if the oil price goes back up to $90 it will come back on stream again.
The nature of US unconventionals is that they are super sensitive to the oil price, and the rig count will rise and fall according to the oil price. The only way to 'stop' tight oil in the US, is to keep the oil price below $60 or so, which would hardly be a great victory for OPEC and Russia.0 -
Perfect response from Sports Direct. Has there ever been a labour party leader viewed with such contempt by so many people.TCPoliticalBetting said:
There is something very wrong about a prospective Prime Minister smearing the image of a Company for acting in ways that were quite legal when his party was in power. What was noticeable about the 1964 election broadcast re-run recently was that the alternative label for Labour was Socialists. It is time that this label was re-applied to Labour. The name "Labour" is far too neutral a label for a party led by Ed Miliband. Socialists is what they are.MarkHopkins said:
Sports Direct dismisses Ed Miliband's zero-hour comments
In response the company ... spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?"
BBC political correspondent Alan Soady said this comment was meant as mockery of Mr Miliband, following recent reports that some Labour figures want him to step down amid poor poll ratings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30069154
0 -
Some cracking maps there! Good find.Speedy said:I found something very interesting UKIP wise.
A few days ago I went on to find some swing maps from the last election, while searching the net I bumped into this:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=184794.0
I scrolled to the bottom to the 2010 swings map and I saw by chance that the seats where UKIP are doing well or are predicted to do well recorded very big swings to the Tories last time.
I did some work on this by using the constituency polls to see how much correlation there is, so I took the polls that showed UKIP up 19% from 2010 in order to give me a nice 25 constituencies out of the 99 polled.
From those 25, 20 were Tory seats, 3 Labour and 2 LD.
The average swing from Labour to Tory in all 25 was 3% higher than the national swing, in fact the Labour vote fell by 10.6% which is way higher that the 6.2% recorded nationwide, in 14 out of 25 seats Labour fell by double digits, in 20 out of 25 seats the Labour vote fell 2% more than the nationwide average and in all seats bar Corby and Folkestone by more than their nationwide average.
My conclusion is that voters that left the Labour party in the 2010GE are going to UKIP and we can find out where UKIP is strong looking where Labour really got hit in the 2010GE.
If you don't believe me look at the 2010 swing map provided by the website above, Clacton is there, Boston too, all of the Thames estuary, and the Thanets, and Grimsby, and Cannock Chase and Walsall North, they are all there in very deep blue swings, which provided my clue.0 -
Off to the Lib Dem annual dinner in St Albans tonight. Guest speaker is Maajid Nawaz. It is apparently fully booked.
Will report back if anything interesting arises.0 -
I note the SNP have ruled out coalition with anyone.
Some people here had very cockeyed ideas about a separatist party possibly getting its hands on the levers of UK government.
It was never a runner...0 -
His blog is very thought provoking, as are his tweets.Verulamius said:Off to the Lib Dem annual dinner in St Albans tonight. Guest speaker is Maajid Nawaz. It is apparently fully booked.
Will report back if anything interesting arises.0 -
Did you read the article?rcs1000 said:
Bank Mellat can only claim damages to the extent that is has lost money. And the court can only award damages that were the direct result of British actions. Now, while the court may find in its favour, there is absolutely no chance of a multi-billion pound settlement, simply because the bank does not have UK operations of a large enough size. If it wins (which it probably won't for the reasons stated by LIAMT), I very much doubt it'd get more than £20m or so.HurstLlama said:The EU authorities are not the ones that have imposed the sanctions in the UK, they have been imposed by HMG. Therefore, if someone has a case that those sanctions were imposed illegally then that case has to be against HMG and must be heard in the UK courts. The problem seems to arise from the fact that said EU authorities are refusing to provide the evidence on which the decision to impose the sanctions was made and that leaves HMG out on a limb.
A court can only decide on the evidence placed before it. If HMG is unable to provide sufficient evidence to justify its actions then it must expect to lose and the taxpayer to be on the hook for damages. HMG's recourse from there must be an action against the EU authorities and good luck with that.
If the cases are lost and the UK does get hit for substantial damages on the scale suggested by the Speccie then it is likely to become a political matter and I am not sure that the Conservatives or Labour will benefit.0 -
I thought Sturgeon had ruled out Supply and Confidence as well - at least with the Tories?Pulpstar said:
Supply & confidence OTOHRodCrosby said:I note the SNP have ruled out coalition with anyone.
Some people here had very cockeyed ideas about a separatist party possibly getting its hands on the levers of UK government.
It was never a runner...0 -
"Labour claims 17,000 of Sports Direct's 20,000 UK staff are not guaranteed regular hours.
In response the company said it was reviewing "core" employment procedures, but a spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?""
This is more like it from Ed. Sports Direct are a perfect enemy to cultivate. No one alive thinks they are anything other than a bunch of spivs and shits. At last he's starting to look like a leader of a left of centre party. I suspect he's getting some good advice at last and is clearly turning up the volume0 -
Sorry, typo. Steven Whaley. At least that what it says on my screen.Steven_Whaley said:
"Steven Whaley Green 2.58%"0 -
Looking at the table above, in the "results" tab
(And it's a great tool by the way, good work nojam)
I'm interested that many of those predicting a UKIP win also predict a win by a large margin - average of more than 10% as of now, If I'm reading it correctly.
I'd be interested to know the thinking behind that -
Perhaps - Strong campaigning by UKIP, plus a feeling that UKIP supporters will be more highly motivated than any of the others?
I don't know.0 -
They were happy enough to be on the receiving end of the Tories supply and confidence in ScotlandRichard_Tyndall said:
I thought Sturgeon had ruled out Supply and Confidence as well - at least with the Tories?Pulpstar said:
Supply & confidence OTOHRodCrosby said:I note the SNP have ruled out coalition with anyone.
Some people here had very cockeyed ideas about a separatist party possibly getting its hands on the levers of UK government.
It was never a runner...
0 -
"Let me be clear. We will NEVER put the Tories in government."Richard_Tyndall said:
I thought Sturgeon had ruled out Supply and Confidence as well - at least with the Tories?Pulpstar said:
Supply & confidence OTOHRodCrosby said:I note the SNP have ruled out coalition with anyone.
Some people here had very cockeyed ideas about a separatist party possibly getting its hands on the levers of UK government.
It was never a runner...
Seems clear to me...0 -
Aw man - I nip out to get some sausages, and when I get back I discover a canvasser from UKIP knocked on the door to ask some questions - Living in a safe seat, I've never been canvassed before, so once again I miss out.0
-
Can't say I think it makes much sense, sounds like Salmond and his threats to companies in Scotland. It may appeal to the partisan voter but is not clever politics.Roger said:"Labour claims 17,000 of Sports Direct's 20,000 UK staff are not guaranteed regular hours.
In response the company said it was reviewing "core" employment procedures, but a spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?""
This is more like it from Ed. Sports Direct are a perfect enemy to cultivate. No one alive thinks they are anything other than a bunch of spivs and shits. At last he's starting to look like a leader of a left of centre party. I suspect he's getting some good advice at last and is clearly turning up the volume
My money is on Sports Direct.0 -
I'm surprised to see Eastleigh in UKIP's top 9 prospects. If memory serves they went backwards at the 2014 local elections and placed third.volcanopete said:I thought this was worth a re-post outlining the 9 seat challenge Ukip has set themselves as after the expected Ukip win at R&S prices are likely to contract.Thursday will be a big GOTV test but the win is likely to be used as a template for these 9 seats,particularly techniques to squeeze the 3rd party vote learnt from the Libs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11153645/Nigel-Farage-to-target-nine-seats-at-General-Election.html0 -
Swiss_Bob said:
Yes, he agrees there's trouble brewing in Ukraine. What I didn't know was that S Arabia had dropped its prices and some of the thought as to why that was. Obama being useless is not news.Indigo said:
Fascinating read. Thanks for that.FalseFlag said:http://www.salon.com/2014/11/13/what_really_happened_in_beijing_putin_obama_xi_and_the_back_story_the_media_wont_tell_you/
Good article on recent occurrences in the Orient. Although it ignores US shale oil will soon go bankrupt at this oil price as evidended by the collapse in the bond prices of producers.
Not sure US shale 'going bankrupt' means much, it's not a state play, they're private businesses and the US don't export oil and gas yet so as far as I know they are not affected as much by global prices, just their own overproduction. Congress just signed the KXL pipeline off.
Amazingly I thought it was illegal for the US to export oil and gas. Except to Canada.0 -
I wonder if the employees share that view.Roger said:"Sports Direct are a perfect enemy to cultivate.
"More than 2,000 shop floor staff at Sports Direct are set for a life-changing windfall after record profits at the fast-growing, cheap-and-cheerful chain triggered a bonus payout that will see workers who earn £20,000 a year banking payouts of £100,000 each."
0 -
MarkHopkins said:
Sports Direct dismisses Ed Miliband's zero-hour comments
In response the company ... spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?"
BBC political correspondent Alan Soady said this comment was meant as mockery of Mr Miliband, following recent reports that some Labour figures want him to step down amid poor poll ratings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30069154
So the man who wants to keep his (legal) tax wheezes private is still pointing fingers.0 -
He's a hypocrite Roger.. How many unpaid interns are the that are working for MP's or the Labour Party or the Unions or think tanks directly associated with Labour?Roger said:"Labour claims 17,000 of Sports Direct's 20,000 UK staff are not guaranteed regular hours.
In response the company said it was reviewing "core" employment procedures, but a spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?""
This is more like it from Ed. Sports Direct are a perfect enemy to cultivate. No one alive thinks they are anything other than a bunch of spivs and shits. At last he's starting to look like a leader of a left of centre party. I suspect he's getting some good advice at last and is clearly turning up the volume
Rather than turn up the volume, he's whining like someone who had had his toffee apple taken away.
Which playcard were you sent by Labour HQ today eh?
How many people are interns who work for the Companies you work for when you do your adverts Did you check or just take the money?0
