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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Rochester campaign moves into its final frenetic days your chance to predict the outcome in a PB prize competition
The winner will receive a copy of the new book edited by Philip Cowley and Rob Ford “Sex Lies & The Ballot Box” which was launched earlier this month and has attracted a fair bit of publicity.
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http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/how-brussels-sanctions-could-bleed-britain-dry/ That one case if lost, as it apparently has a good chance of being would cost us more in settlement that the whole of the 1.7bn EU payments row of a week or so ago. Apparently Russian banks are already looking into a further 24bn of claims against the UK. Brussels orders the sanctions, the UK complies, the banks sue, Brussels does not furnish any evidence, the case collapses, the UK has to foot the bill
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
Is it within the power of the government to say that any decision made as the result of a direct, legally binding, instruction by the EU cannot result in a law suit against the UK Treasury as long as they went no further than instructed?
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?
Dream on. The above case is already before the courts.
A £25,000,000,000 bill should help nudge the UK to 'Exit' though.
A casual voter may not have noticed how this Oxford PPE pointscorer was their Con MP so recently.
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
This is what third party procedures were invented for. The UK should convene the Commission as a third party and seek a right of relief.
Surely the ones being sued should be the EU authorities?
The EU authorities are not the ones that have imposed the sanctions in the UK, they have been imposed by HMG. Therefore, if someone has a case that those sanctions were imposed illegally then that case has to be against HMG and must be heard in the UK courts. The problem seems to arise from the fact that said EU authorities are refusing to provide the evidence on which the decision to impose the sanctions was made and that leaves HMG out on a limb.
A court can only decide on the evidence placed before it. If HMG is unable to provide sufficient evidence to justify its actions then it must expect to lose and the taxpayer to be on the hook for damages. HMG's recourse from there must be an action against the EU authorities and good luck with that.
If the cases are lost and the UK does get hit for substantial damages on the scale suggested by the Speccie then it is likely to become a political matter and I am not sure that the Conservatives or Labour will benefit.
Bank Mellat's current action against the Treasury is in negligence, and they must therefore demonstrate that that Treasury owed them a duty of care in accordance with the principles laid down by Lord Bridge of Harwich in Caparo Industries Plc v Dickman [1990] 2 AC 605. It must be fair, just and reasonable that the law should impose a duty of a given scope upon the one party for the benefit of the other. It seems unlikely that a common law duty will be imposed here for obvious reasons of public policy, but since the Supreme Court's bizarre decision on the negligence point in Smith v Ministry of Defence [2014] AC 52 anything is possible.
Really? The straight choice?
Has that ever been used in a by election before?
It's a brilliant poster so long as people forget Mark Reckless was the Tory candidate for the last three elections.
What they should have put on the poster.
Kelly Tolhurst, lovely English rose and not a traitorous pig dog.
Mark Reckless, a slap headed, PPE posh boy traitorous pig dog.
I went for UKIP with 7.77% margin.
Good article on recent occurrences in the Orient. Although it ignores US shale oil will soon go bankrupt at this oil price as evidended by the collapse in the bond prices of producers.
Surely "The local choice" would have been better?
Ed Miliband did the right thing by giving money to the person begging in the street
Ed Miliband did the wrong thing by giving money to the person begging in the street
I can imagine Ed Miliband as Prime Minister
The fact that David Cameron went to Eton makes it harder for him to be a good prime minister for the whole country
I trust David Cameron to stand up for working people
I trust Ed Miliband to stand up for working people
David Cameron will make make deep cuts to public services including the NHS and schools if he is Prime Minister after the next general election
Ed Miliband will make deep cuts to public services including the NHS and schools if he is prime minister after the next general election
As Nigel Farage is to be portrayed in a spoof documentary for Channel 4, we have also asked people which actors they think should play each of the four main party leaders.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/11/15/poll-alert-49/
You can click the "Summary" button from within the form to see the averages so far.
Currently breaking 2-1 in favour of UKIP over the Conservatives.
How many MPs were actually born in the constituency they represent?
This does highlight how difficult it is for either candidate to get traction. Neither can attack the record of the other directly since Reckless would be attacking the party he supported until a couple of months ago and Tolhurst would be attacking her own party.
Funnily enough probably the only attack that Tolhurst cuold make is the one TSE uses (not the slap headed bit) but I get the impression that falls flat as well given that Reckless can easily claim it was the party that changed not him.
"Gentlemen, start your lawyers!"
Actually sanctions were imposed at the behest of the US not the EU. Still we are a nation of laws so encouraging news.
Is it possible to download the data, or see a chart, of the Betfair data over time?
We have first past the post and a lot of people don't want to waste their vote on a loser but have an impact on the outcome.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
Then, click the little graph icon next to Labour Majority
Edit: Once you've got the graph up, I've found choosing the "inverse axis" option fun
The Nojam interface gizmo is awesome - fingers crossed it holds up until the results come in next week- good luck PBers.
I and several other PBers would like to offer you odds on that.
Thanks. Not much detail on the graph about dates though...
I feel sorry for Ed Miliband - 22% agree
No one cares, including a sizable percentage of Labour voters.
Endex
"You can't [sic] flag a moderator's post."
:junior-school:
(Second try)
TSE suffering squeaky bum time.
It's a bit of a tough sell as it's obvious Labour losing a significant number of seats to the SNP would greatly increase the chance of the Tories getting the most seats and thus first go at forming a coalition.
Not sure US shale 'going bankrupt' means much, it's not a state play, they're private businesses and the US don't export oil and gas yet so as far as I know they are not affected as much by global prices, just their own overproduction. Congress just signed the KXL pipeline off.
Sports Direct dismisses Ed Miliband's zero-hour comments
In response the company ... spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?"
BBC political correspondent Alan Soady said this comment was meant as mockery of Mr Miliband, following recent reports that some Labour figures want him to step down amid poor poll ratings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30069154
Fear will be an enormous driver in May.
Wait to you see my push pollsmessage testing phone calls.
Spurs 2014/15 season = Ed Miliband
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11153645/Nigel-Farage-to-target-nine-seats-at-General-Election.html
He is also, if Archbishop Cramner is to be believed, Vice Chairman of All Party Parliamentary Pro-Life Group and "as a member of the Home Affairs Select Committee, he interrogated the DPP Keir Starmer QC, demanding to know why, despite all the manifest evidence of crime and illegality, no doctors have been prosecuted either for authorising abortions without medical examination or terminating pregnancies because the foetus happens to be female."
Good for him. Lets hope he increases his majority on Thursday. Rather puts to bed the idea in some quarters that he is unprincipled, and the idea that there are too few people of religion in the UK to make a difference politically.
http://archbishopcranmer.com/rochester-strood-the-christian-case-for-supporting-mark-reckless/
A few days ago I went on to find some swing maps from the last election, while searching the net I bumped into this:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=184794.0
I scrolled to the bottom to the 2010 swings map and I saw by chance that the seats where UKIP are doing well or are predicted to do well recorded very big swings to the Tories last time.
I did some work on this by using the constituency polls to see how much correlation there is, so I took the polls that showed UKIP up 19% from 2010 in order to give me a nice 25 constituencies out of the 99 polled.
From those 25, 20 were Tory seats, 3 Labour and 2 LD.
The average swing from Labour to Tory in all 25 was 3% higher than the national swing, in fact the Labour vote fell by 10.6% which is way higher that the 6.2% recorded nationwide, in 14 out of 25 seats Labour fell by double digits, in 20 out of 25 seats the Labour vote fell 2% more than the nationwide average and in all seats bar Corby and Folkestone by more than their nationwide average.
My conclusion is that voters that left the Labour party in the 2010GE are going to UKIP and we can find out where UKIP is strong looking where Labour really got hit in the 2010GE.
If you don't believe me look at the 2010 swing map provided by the website above, Clacton is there, Boston too, all of the Thames estuary, and the Thanets, and Grimsby, and Cannock Chase and Walsall North, they are all there in very deep blue swings, which provided my clue.
I haven't been able to find your entry.
But I have found a 'Traitorous pigdogoutinMay'.
Anything to do with you, perchance?
That said going for nine seats does seem to have a ring of realism about it. If UKIP get six seats I think they will have done very well.
I think the next step for the Tories is Eton bashing "don't vote for the UKIP candidate because he has gone to Eton, vote Tory instead, because we haven't got anyone who has gone to Eton".
So I expect UKIP to be in a very good position to take the seat in May.
I haven't made my entry yet.
A friend of mine is out canvassing in Rochester and Strood today, I expect to hear some feedback either tonight or tomorrow and I'll make my prediction then.
It's the UKIP 'anti-establishment' bollocks which is the target here.... jeez. i'd have mentioned the value of his pension racked up already in a handful of years as an establishment MP too of course... not the Carswell hundred's of thousands mind but still many tens of thousands.
Incidentally, my copy of Sex,Lies and the Ballot Box, received for predicting the PCC Election, arrived this morning, and having looked at a dozen or so of the chapters, it's pretty good.
Proper November day, with mist from dawn till dusk. Stark contrast to October.
re US shale oil (really, tight oil)
If the oil price is $60, large parts of the US cease to be economic and lots of small (over-indebted) operators will go bust.
But if the oil price goes back up to $90 it will come back on stream again.
The nature of US unconventionals is that they are super sensitive to the oil price, and the rig count will rise and fall according to the oil price. The only way to 'stop' tight oil in the US, is to keep the oil price below $60 or so, which would hardly be a great victory for OPEC and Russia.
Will report back if anything interesting arises.
Some people here had very cockeyed ideas about a separatist party possibly getting its hands on the levers of UK government.
It was never a runner...
In response the company said it was reviewing "core" employment procedures, but a spokesman added: "With enemies like these, who needs friends?""
This is more like it from Ed. Sports Direct are a perfect enemy to cultivate. No one alive thinks they are anything other than a bunch of spivs and shits. At last he's starting to look like a leader of a left of centre party. I suspect he's getting some good advice at last and is clearly turning up the volume
"Steven Whaley Green 2.58%"
(And it's a great tool by the way, good work nojam)
I'm interested that many of those predicting a UKIP win also predict a win by a large margin - average of more than 10% as of now, If I'm reading it correctly.
I'd be interested to know the thinking behind that -
Perhaps - Strong campaigning by UKIP, plus a feeling that UKIP supporters will be more highly motivated than any of the others?
I don't know.
Seems clear to me...
My money is on Sports Direct.
Amazingly I thought it was illegal for the US to export oil and gas. Except to Canada.
"More than 2,000 shop floor staff at Sports Direct are set for a life-changing windfall after record profits at the fast-growing, cheap-and-cheerful chain triggered a bonus payout that will see workers who earn £20,000 a year banking payouts of £100,000 each."
So the man who wants to keep his (legal) tax wheezes private is still pointing fingers.
Rather than turn up the volume, he's whining like someone who had had his toffee apple taken away.
Which playcard were you sent by Labour HQ today eh?
How many people are interns who work for the Companies you work for when you do your adverts Did you check or just take the money?