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Suddenly the betting money goes on Michelle Obama – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    TOPPING said:

    I mean so what if Jesus existed. The new religion had to come from somewhere and if there was a bloke, pale complexion, long flowing beard/hair who was making a big noise about something then all well and good.

    And then people began to create.

    You can perfectly reasonably say Jesus existed. Can you perfectly reasonably say he existed, he was the son of god and died and rose up again on the third day. And all the other stuff.

    No. No I don't think you can so what does it matter if there was an historical figure, poor bloke, onto which all this was piled.

    You certainly can if you are one of the 2 billion Christians still worldwide
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Labour have a real problem with their Rochdale candidate. Someone said the Tories were stoking it - no, they're not. The very worst this looks is when someone quotes Keir Starmer - it is STARMER attacking Ali in the form of the absolutist statements issued beforehand.

    My solution:
    1. Disown Ali. Legally the person runs, not the party. Like the former Green candidate his name stays on the ballot, with a party ID, but everyone made clear he is disowned
    2. Suspend the CLP. They heard his comments and then chose to select him. Doing so has brought the party into disrepute in 2 ways - they knew the candidate has a serious issue and did nothing, and then they chose to endorse him.

    The end result? Labour show they are tough on bigots and reclaim the high ground. We likely get Gorgeous elected which will highlight the shithousery of the Workers Revolutionary Party and draw the sting out of a potential pro-Hamas vote.

    Get it done. Or this will roll on and on and on like an SNP coverup of kids watching footie on a government iPad.

    The public are in a different place to last October .

    The so called conspiracy theory has a lot more traction , sympathy for Israel has cratered after the relentless scenes of death and destruction in Gaza .

    The biggest recruiting sergeant for anti-Semitism is Netenyahu and his disgusting cabinet .
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,106

    Labour have a real problem with their Rochdale candidate. Someone said the Tories were stoking it - no, they're not. The very worst this looks is when someone quotes Keir Starmer - it is STARMER attacking Ali in the form of the absolutist statements issued beforehand.

    My solution:
    1. Disown Ali. Legally the person runs, not the party. Like the former Green candidate his name stays on the ballot, with a party ID, but everyone made clear he is disowned
    2. Suspend the CLP. They heard his comments and then chose to select him. Doing so has brought the party into disrepute in 2 ways - they knew the candidate has a serious issue and did nothing, and then they chose to endorse him.

    The end result? Labour show they are tough on bigots and reclaim the high ground. We likely get Gorgeous elected which will highlight the shithousery of the Workers Revolutionary Party and draw the sting out of a potential pro-Hamas vote.

    Get it done. Or this will roll on and on and on like an SNP coverup of kids watching footie on a government iPad.

    It would be interesting if it produced a Rochdale Neale Hanvey!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018

    We kept out many Jews fleeing persecution.
    But we didn't take in any who only converted to Judaism on arrival in the UK
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    On Topic and George Galloway

    I got 4/1 when news of Labour's problems broke

    Best price now 9/4
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    No, as the Word is based on the Bible so they would still need to have some Biblical knowledge
    Tough crowd. You'd have been a nightmare for Jesus' followers in 0 AD/BC.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154

    I'm the same as you. I managed to lay her at 7/1 last week.

    The thinking seems to be:

    (1) Biden is past it, and will either 'pass-on' or withdraw
    (2) It can't be another white man
    (3) Kamala Harris is a Dem minority woman, but unpopular
    (4) Michelle Obama is a Dem minority woman, but very popular
    (5) Therefore, it must be Michelle Obama who's in poll position

    The trouble is that Michelle Obama has never shown the slightest interest in any sort of political career, let alone running for President, and you can't read across from the Clintons to the Obamas, despite the fact she's written a good book, done a couple of nice speeches and comes across well on TV. Also, I don't see the mechanism by which this all suddenly changes at the 11th hour at the Convention and she's magically coronated even if she wanted to be: she'd be untested (entirely), Kamala would have first dibs at Biden's running mate and, even if she fell under a bus, others would certainly compete for it.

    Because many people really believe in (1) to (5) they simply ignore this.

    This is name recognition and falls into the same category as the crazy prices available for Jeb Bush and Bloomberg available last time. Her price should be at least 40/1 (and probably north of 100/1) which makes this a very good value lay.
    Do we even know if MO is actually popular? Not that I’ve bothered looking but is there any polling on her v Trump?

    I can see she would be popular to an extent with a smallish proportion of voters who might judge her on actions she’s been involved in, popular with Dems who don’t want Trump, popular with people who loved Obama but I have a nagging doubt that for various reasons I think there would be more people who wouldn’t want her than want her.

    Frankly I cannot see her as the sort of masochist who would want the intrusion and abuse she would get if she went up against Trump. It would make attacks on Biden seem tame I fear.
  • Tell me about it.

    This is a fight in which I have no dog, and no wish to have one. Really annoys some people.
    Have you considered getting an XL Bully?

    Welcome back CR!

    It's not just that they don't want a white man, it's surely that there isn't one that's particularly suitable, of any colour.
    Thanks. Had a bad bought of depression last week.

    Just dipping my toe in the water this week. Seeing what it's like.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    As it is the established Church of English people who are actually citizens of this country. Muslims coming to the UK facing no persecution from their nation of origin using 'conversion' to Christianity while in the UK as a quick way to get a UK passport are a different matter
    You're equating 'C of E' with 'holding a UK passport'.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    You certainly can if you are one of the 2 billion Christians still worldwide
    You are a funny guy. It is endlessly interesting to me (but of course wholly understandable) that people such as you should believe that he died and was resurrected.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    nico679 said:

    The public are in a different place to last October .

    The so called conspiracy theory has a lot more traction , sympathy for Israel has cratered after the relentless scenes of death and destruction in Gaza .

    The biggest recruiting sergeant for anti-Semitism is Netenyahu and his disgusting cabinet .
    Thank you for allowing us to lay to rest the idea that criticism of Israel is not criticism of Jews.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253
    edited February 2024

    SKS fans was Einstein an antisemite?

    Discuss

    https://twitter.com/guy999guy/status/1757023292811014158/photo/1
    Well, it's all relative, isn't it? Depends on one's frame of reference.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619
    Leon said:

    We need to adjust to this bitter new reality. Putin is not going to be defeated in Ukraine, or not as we once hoped. He will not be forced to cede Crimea, he will not have to retreat to the 2013 borders

    It's over, I think. It doesn't matter how much aid or kit we send to Ukraine, if they don't have the men they cannot prosecute the war: that's it. Done. Unless we are prepared to put our own NATO men in the field? But of course, we are not going to do that

    Kyiv needs to seek a grim ceasefire and rebuild what is left of Ukraine, and NATO needs to make sure Poland is armed with nukes
    NPXMP was saying something sensible along the lines of the first part of your final paragraph.

    Of course the Ukrainian Ultra PB Chairborne Division (copyright dura ace) will have anyone who is not fully on board with continuing the war as a Putinist. However reality will eventually bite.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,760
    DavidL said:

    I suspect that it is more the roller coaster thing. If you invest a fair percentage of your wealth in something as ephemeral as a film you will have the odd disaster as well as the odd spectacular success. I do not pretend to be an expert but it also appears that the US bankruptcy schemes are as focused on trying to control cash flows and restricting diligence on assets as any absolute bankruptcy as we understand it. Hence so many companies seek bankruptcy protection from time to time.

    Donald Trump, for example has filed for chapter XI bankruptcy no less than 6 times.
    https://www.thoughtco.com/donald-trump-business-bankruptcies-4152019

    And he is one of the most brilliant
    businessmen of all time. Apparently.

    Chapter 11 is closer to “administration” in UK terms than “bankruptcy”.

    The aim is that a viable business emerges at the other end with some opportunity for recovery by creditors

    Of course Trump has abused that concept massively
  • I'm the same as you. I managed to lay her at 7/1 last week.

    The thinking seems to be:

    (1) Biden is past it, and will either 'pass-on' or withdraw
    (2) It can't be another white man
    (3) Kamala Harris is a Dem minority woman, but unpopular
    (4) Michelle Obama is a Dem minority woman, but very popular
    (5) Therefore, it must be Michelle Obama who's in poll position

    The trouble is that Michelle Obama has never shown the slightest interest in any sort of political career, let alone running for President, and you can't read across from the Clintons to the Obamas, despite the fact she's written a good book, done a couple of nice speeches and comes across well on TV. Also, I don't see the mechanism by which this all suddenly changes at the 11th hour at the Convention and she's magically coronated even if she wanted to be: she'd be untested (entirely), Kamala would have first dibs at Biden's running mate and, even if she fell under a bus, others would certainly compete for it.

    Because many people really believe in (1) to (5) they simply ignore this.

    This is name recognition and falls into the same category as the crazy prices available for Jeb Bush and Bloomberg available last time. Her price should be at least 40/1 (and probably north of 100/1) which makes this a very good value lay.
    Welcome back.

    For Obama to become the candidate, various increasingly impossible things need to happen:
    1. Biden is persuaded to retire. Likely his wife would need to insist with the DNC nodding sympathetically as she did so.
    2. Harris is told it won't be her and that she cannot argue the toss.
    3. Newsom and any other potential backup candidates told the same
    4. All of them comply
    5. Only now does Obama come into play. With (surely) Barack brought in to manage the campaign as if the DNC rely on the DNC to run the campaign, they will lose

    If Michelle Obama really the best option? I know that all the other options are awful, but Obama? Really? She can't campaign on having the experience America needs, or brilliant policy ideas, or the political strength needed to transform the country.

    Her campaign would be "I am not Donald Trump and you used to like my husband". More so if Barack is her Veep nominee (and yes, he could be...)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,524
    edited February 2024
    148grss said:

    I had heard of number 5 on that list - and that made me discredit him personally - but I wasn't aware of any of the other points here listed that meant he should be academically discredited and was only aware of critiques of his work that came from a clearly theistic bent. I would personally say that the Rank Raglan aspect wasn't a particularly interesting aspect to me - I was more interested by early Jewish apocrypha and the literary purpose and construction of the gospels - but would again wouldn't claim I'm personally an expert nor care that much about the topic.
    To be fair, I doubt if many people who read his book do know much about him - and most of those who do know much read it for confirmation bias, I.e. they are 'fundies' who read it to reassure themselves they're not talking bullshit. The likes of David Fitzgerald, Raphael Lataster, Neil Godfrey, Tom Harpur etc.

    I only knew because I wrote a review of his work on German history and saw within about five minutes that it was fraudulent. That led me to wonder what else he had been writing on. So I did some research, and oh boy I found out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    HYUFD said:

    To be fair Russia is also running out of a lot of men too
    But they have so many more

    I have found a debate from August last year when I painstakingly tried to explain all this to PB. Lots of PB-ers accused me of mongering doom-porn

    Here is one exchange with @BartholomewRoberts


    BartholomewRoberts said:

    "Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.

    Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you"


    Leon replied:
    .
    "I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower

    Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history"

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4505200#Comment_4505200


    The BBC, today:


    "Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line"

    "the price Ukraine is paying to defend itself is already immense.

    When I ask Pavlo whether he's lost friends in the fighting, he admits that there's "almost no one left" from his entire company.

    "The only ones left are [injured] like me. The others are dead."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    The issue was ascribing motive
    I would agree - but I wouldn't consider that ascribing of motive to be anti-Semitic as just generally cynical of state intelligence apparatus.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619

    https://x.com/hackneyabbott/status/1757031565970817167

    Kate Osamor removed as a Labour MP for suggesting Gaza might be genocide.
    But Azhar Ali, the @UKLabour Rochdale candidate, accuses Israel of deliberately allowing the October 7 massacre and he gets full support.

    This can’t be right. According to the PB labour fanatics the only anger over this is synthetic Tory anger.
  • Come on Democrats, thats the ticket we all. Obama Obama 2024.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619
    HYUFD said:

    To be fair Russia is also running out of a lot of men too
    So it’s in both sides interest to have some form of cessation of hostilities.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Oh to be a fly on the wall at Akehurst towers right now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,100
    'Rishi Sunak has to call an election in 6 weeks - he has no other choice'
    The Prime Minister cannot wait until Autumn to call a vote, says Fleet Street Fox. There'll be no-one left in Downing Street by then

    Here are some facts. There hasn't been an October election since 1974. Ten of the last 11 elections have all been held in spring or summer. There are local elections planned for May 2, and the spring budget date has been moved to a week or two earlier than expected, on March 6.

    And here's an assumption: the Conservative Party is going to be utterly decimated in the locals. Reform will make good ground among motivated anti-immigration voters, Labour will sweep the board in the north and midlands, and even Ed Davey's dire record on the Post Office scandal won't stop the Lib Dems cleaning up in the south.

    The question that would furrow Sunak's brow, if he cared about any of this, is: who's going to campaign for him in October? Who's going to stuff leaflets, who's going to give old ladies a lift to the polling station, who's going to stand in rainy high streets saying "vote Tory"? Not a single Conservative councillor, who will either have lost their seats five months previous or have scraped through by pretending not to have anything to do with That Lot In Westminster.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-call-election-march-32107086
  • Have you considered getting an XL Bully? Thanks. Had a bad bought of depression last week.

    Just dipping my toe in the water this week. Seeing what it's like.
    Wow! CR is back among us!
  • Taz said:

    So it’s in both sides interest to have some form of cessation of hostilities.
    Putin can always withdraw from internationally recognised Ukrainian land.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,524

    Have you considered getting an XL Bully? Thanks. Had a bad bought of depression last week.

    Just dipping my toe in the water this week. Seeing what it's like.
    Welcome back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    Scott_xP said:

    'Rishi Sunak has to call an election in 6 weeks - he has no other choice'
    The Prime Minister cannot wait until Autumn to call a vote, says Fleet Street Fox. There'll be no-one left in Downing Street by then

    Here are some facts. There hasn't been an October election since 1974. Ten of the last 11 elections have all been held in spring or summer. There are local elections planned for May 2, and the spring budget date has been moved to a week or two earlier than expected, on March 6.

    And here's an assumption: the Conservative Party is going to be utterly decimated in the locals. Reform will make good ground among motivated anti-immigration voters, Labour will sweep the board in the north and midlands, and even Ed Davey's dire record on the Post Office scandal won't stop the Lib Dems cleaning up in the south.

    The question that would furrow Sunak's brow, if he cared about any of this, is: who's going to campaign for him in October? Who's going to stuff leaflets, who's going to give old ladies a lift to the polling station, who's going to stand in rainy high streets saying "vote Tory"? Not a single Conservative councillor, who will either have lost their seats five months previous or have scraped through by pretending not to have anything to do with That Lot In Westminster.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-call-election-march-32107086

    Canvassers and deliverers are important for local elections and getting out the vote when only 30-35% vote.

    They are much less important for general elections when 65-70% vote unless in very marginal seats which end up with majorities of less than 1000
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    Leon said:

    Without googling, I'm going to say: divorce

    I know that is why Cleese is relatively skint. Multiple divorces
    Quite the opposite in fact: he has a sixty-year marriage. His bankruptcies is down to the fact that he takes risks, as in mortgage-the-house-whoops risks.

    You may recall me saying that we have a crop of great directors coming to the end of their lives, with very mixed results: Scorsese probably did best with "Killers of the Flower Moon", Spielberg and Mann did middling with "The Fabelmans" and "Ferrari", Ridley Scott absolutely shat the bed with "Napoleon". But they all failed in predictable ways: Scorsese did a film with brilliant detail, fine atmosphere, great performances and was too long and boring. Ridley couldn't find a good script if you shoved it up his arse and delivered a beautifully shot warm steaming turd.

    But Coppola is wildly unpredictable and his next up is "Megalopolis", which could be great, middling, or poo. We won't know until it's out.

    If you like middlebrow (hah!) cineastes on YouTube banging on about films, here's two you may like about Coppola

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,760

    Really? Apart from this one Labour candidate, how many MPs can you name
    pushing crackpot and insulting conspiracytheories?
    Doesn’t David Treddinick support homeopathy?


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    The Hague Court of Appeal orders Dutch govt to stop selling F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    Leon said:

    But they have so many more

    I have found a debate from August last year when I painstakingly tried to explain all this to PB. Lots of PB-ers accused me of mongering doom-porn

    Here is one exchange with @BartholomewRoberts


    BartholomewRoberts said:

    "Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.

    Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you"


    Leon replied:
    .
    "I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower

    Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history"

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4505200#Comment_4505200


    The BBC, today:


    "Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line"

    "the price Ukraine is paying to defend itself is already immense.

    When I ask Pavlo whether he's lost friends in the fighting, he admits that there's "almost no one left" from his entire company.

    "The only ones left are [injured] like me. The others are dead."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490
    Ukraine also has women and children who will die to defend their homeland, while even many Russian men are reluctant to fight
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited February 2024
    HYUFD said:

    France doesn't, nor does Germany, Italy, Spain or Canada

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/584088/defense-expenditures-of-nato-countries/#:~:text=It is a target of,of their GDP on defense.
    It's a red herring. Does the US spend more on defence because it's a member of NATO, compared with if it wasn't? Unlikely. Do America's NATO commitments distract from other priorities? Hypothetically possible but America's NATO allies in recent years have contributed more to American projects than the other way round. Also Trump doesn't seem particularly keen on those commitments. So the US is getting a lot of benefit from NATO for a minimal net input. It shouldn't be wholly transactional, and I don't think it is, but if you go down that route, America is the beneficiary right now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    edited February 2024
    Carnyx said:

    You're equating 'C of E' with 'holding a UK passport'.
    It is the church for everyone who lives in England and has UK citizenship yes, it is not a backdoor route for economic migrants not facing persecution to get UK citizenship
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Taz said:

    This can’t be right. According to the PB labour fanatics the only anger over this is synthetic Tory anger.
    Netenyahu desperately wanting a reason to destroy Gaza isn’t that far fetched. Ali’s comments will resonate with quite a few voters even though it might seem unpalatable !

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Have you considered getting an XL Bully? Thanks. Had a bad bought of depression last week.

    Just dipping my toe in the water this week. Seeing what it's like.
    I also have difficulty with Black Dog - and happy to have that cup of tea (as long as you're happy to sit face to face with a republican).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited February 2024

    Doesn’t David Treddinick support homeopathy?


    Ms Mordaunt too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/15/penny-mordaunt-repeatedly-advocated-use-of-homeopathy-on-nhs

    Edit: in fairness, not just these two: look at the signatories:

    https://edm.parliament.uk/early-day-motion/41282/british-medical-association-motions-on-homeopathy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    edited February 2024

    Putin can always withdraw from internationally recognised Ukrainian land.
    Why the F should he do that? He's not only winning (in his terms), he has probably won (in his terms)

    Ukraine will likely be partioned in a Korea-style armistice (which I predicted about a year ago), Putin will keep his chunk, the rest of Ukraine will survive
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Come on Democrats, thats the ticket we all. Obama Obama 2024.

    Love it.

    Would drive MAGA's Crazy

    Or should I say crazier
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    FF43 said:

    It's a red herring. Does the US spend more on defence because it's a member of NATO, compared with if it wasn't? Unlikely. Do America's NATO commitments distract from other priorities? Hypothetically possible but America's NATO allies in recent years have contributed more to American projects than the other way round. Also Trump doesn't seem particularly keen on those commitments. So the US is getting a lot of benefit from NATO for a minimal net input. It shouldn't be wholly transactional, and I don't think it is, but if you go down that route, America is the beneficiary right now.
    If Russia invaded France and Germany it certainly wouldn't be the US the beneficiary of NATO
  • HYUFD said:

    Ukraine also has women and children who will die to defend their homeland, while even many Russian men are reluctant to fight
    They have to fight to the last babushka and for the same reason my Dad fought in WW2 - nowhere to go if you lose.
  • Have you considered getting an XL Bully? Thanks. Had a bad bought of depression last week.

    Just dipping my toe in the water this week. Seeing what it's like.
    Welcome back, fella. Good to see you here again.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    No, as the Word is based on the Bible so they would still need to have some Biblical knowledge
    I thought the Word was God - he spake and thus created all. Revelation was the means by which people knew Jesus and God prior to the bible - the bible was only cobbled together by Nicaea. So no Christians prior to 325AD?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,669
    ydoethur said:

    You may find the following of interest:

    Tim O'Neill (Carrier's fellow amateur historian and blogger with postgrad history qualifications) gives a readable intro to Jesus Mythicism here:
    https://historyforatheists.com/2017/05/did-jesus-exist-the-jesus-myth-theory-again/
    Larry Hurtado summarises some of the key issues with Carrier's book here:
    https://larryhurtado.wordpress.com/2017/12/02/why-the-mythical-jesus-claim-has-no-traction-with-scholars/
    Bart Ehrman, one of the actual scholars Carrier has attacked, comments on Carrier's misunderstandings of his own work here: https://ehrmanblog.org/fuller-reply-to-richard-carrier/
    James McGrath notes issues with the Rank Raglan scale here: https://bibleinterp.arizona.edu/articles/2014/12/mcg388023
    Luke Barnes evaluates Carrier's methodology here: https://letterstonature.wordpress.com/2016/02/05/final-word-on-richard-carrier/
    Stephanie Fisher discusses his misunderstandings of the historical literature here: https://rjosephhoffmann.com/2012/05/22/the-jesus-process-stephanie-louise-fisher/

    (The only person on that list who is in any way religious, so far as I know, is McGrath.)

    It is worth noting that all of these are blog posts of one description or another. That is because to my knowledge there has only ever been one review of his book in an actual academic journal, which compared his knowledge to a first year theology undergraduate and his writing style to evangelical apologetics. Petterson's review is available here: https://relegere.org/relegere/article/view/702

    In response Carrier accused her of being a Christian out to get him, which led the editor of Relegere to clarify Petterson is an atheist.

    Ehrman does great work on popularising modern academic understanding of the Bible, and particularly how the New Testament was written and re-written. I’d recommend any of his books. He’s an atheist. He’ll lecture you for hours on the flaws and inconsistencies in accounts of Jesus’s life, but he does believe there was a historical Jesus.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    If you look at all your posts on this thread, across different subjects - you are a disrupter. You are Donald Trump.

    What is the line of argument “Jesus never existed” if it’s not Trumpesque?

    Truth isn’t important to you. Disrupting is.
    I mean I'm a literal anarchist anti-fascist and he is the literal embodiment of where capital meets fascism. But sure, there is no difference between good things and bad things.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,193
    isam said:

    Excl: Investigation by @thetimes into the scale of abuse of Christian conversion in the asylum system has found:
    - Murderers, rapists, drug dealers & burglars avoided deportation by claiming they're Christian converts
    - Outlandish claims lodged included a "Christian" who spent a month going to a synagogue by mistake
    1/8
    With @GeorgeGreenwood & @inspirellie_: thetimes.co.uk/article/509b22…

    https://x.com/matt_dathan/status/1756986437650497959?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    To be fair, the blandest synagogues sell weak tea and niceness to the point that there is no difference to the CoE.
  • Have you considered getting an XL Bully? Thanks. Had a bad bought of depression last week.

    Just dipping my toe in the water this week. Seeing what it's like.
    Don't see the attaction, CR, but then I don't like lapdogs either.

    Nice to see you back.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619

    Putin can always withdraw from internationally recognised Ukrainian land.
    Good idea. How bout it Vlad ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    HYUFD said:

    Ukraine also has women and children who will die to defend their homeland, while even many Russian men are reluctant to fight
    Yep, that should cheer them up in Kyiv and Odesa

    ARM THE TODDLERS

    They could also put warheads at the front of baby strollers, and send them spinning along the mud at the Russian army, sure the baby will be blown up, but it will be so weird it might win the war overnight, because reasons
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    It is the church for everyone who lives in England and has UK citizenship yes, it is not a backdoor route for economic migrants not facing persecution to get UK citizenship
    But who determines that? That's the issue. The vicar? Or the state? So why is the Party complaining about the vicars?
  • To be fair, the blandest synagogues sell weak tea and niceness to the point that there is no difference to the CoE.
    The bagels are better.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    Doesn’t David Treddinick support homeopathy?


    Homeopathy isn’t a conspiracy theory!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    TOPPING said:

    I mean so what if Jesus existed. The new religion had to come from somewhere and if there was a bloke, pale complexion, long flowing beard/hair who was making a big noise about something then all well and good.

    And then people began to create.

    You can perfectly reasonably say Jesus existed. Can you perfectly reasonably say he existed, he was the son of god and died and rose up again on the third day. And all the other stuff.

    No. No I don't think you can so what does it matter if there was an historical figure, poor bloke, onto which all this was piled.

    The general argument is Jesus was more of a celestial figure - a la the angel that Mohammed claimed to get the Quran from. I also feel that the lack of historicity of many Jewish figures (such as Moses) also suggests a pre existing tradition of creating history for non historical religious figures.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,669

    Should asylum be based on the situation when you entered the country?

    Getting baptised after you arrive here (or getting married or a cat) shouldn’t create retrospective rights

    Let’s say I come to the UK from country X. While I’m here, there’s a coup d’etat in country X and a new government comes in, who start a genocide against tree kangaroos. Should my claim for asylum be based on the situation when I entered the country, or the situation now? Asylum claims have to recognise the situation now.

    Maybe I come to the UK a nobody in my home country, but while I’m in the UK, I’m swiping on Tinder and I match with someone who is a prominent political dissident back home. We fall in love and marry. Suddenly, as her husband, I’ve become the target of a repressive regime. Again, shouldn’t my asylum claim recognise the now rather than the then?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Leon said:

    But they have so many more

    I have found a debate from August last year when I painstakingly tried to explain all this to PB. Lots of PB-ers accused me of mongering doom-porn

    Here is one exchange with @BartholomewRoberts


    BartholomewRoberts said:

    "Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.

    Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you"


    Leon replied:
    .
    "I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower

    Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history"

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4505200#Comment_4505200


    The BBC, today:


    "Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line"

    "the price Ukraine is paying to defend itself is already immense.

    When I ask Pavlo whether he's lost friends in the fighting, he admits that there's "almost no one left" from his entire company.

    "The only ones left are [injured] like me. The others are dead."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490
    That's right: Ukraine is struggling to get troops to fill the front line.

    But so is Russia.

    You are absolutely right to point out Ukraine's difficulties, but you are curiously blind to Russia's.

    And defeat is so much worse for Ukraine than for Russia, that I suspect you will find they will keep being able to find men and women - exhausted and elderly and injured etc - for far, far longer than you might expect.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    edited February 2024

    ...

    Yay, he's back!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,343
    edited February 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    'Rishi Sunak has to call an election in 6 weeks - he has no other choice'
    The Prime Minister cannot wait until Autumn to call a vote, says Fleet Street Fox. There'll be no-one left in Downing Street by then

    Here are some facts. There hasn't been an October election since 1974. Ten of the last 11 elections have all been held in spring or summer. There are local elections planned for May 2, and the spring budget date has been moved to a week or two earlier than expected, on March 6.

    And here's an assumption: the Conservative Party is going to be utterly decimated in the locals. Reform will make good ground among motivated anti-immigration voters, Labour will sweep the board in the north and midlands, and even Ed Davey's dire record on the Post Office scandal won't stop the Lib Dems cleaning up in the south.

    The question that would furrow Sunak's brow, if he cared about any of this, is: who's going to campaign for him in October? Who's going to stuff leaflets, who's going to give old ladies a lift to the polling station, who's going to stand in rainy high streets saying "vote Tory"? Not a single Conservative councillor, who will either have lost their seats five months previous or have scraped through by pretending not to have anything to do with That Lot In Westminster.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-call-election-march-32107086

    The answer to "who will do the campaigning?" is easy enough- social media bots. Parties in general and Conservatives in particular don't need people as long as they have money.

    And the arguments against May are the same as they always were.

    1. The probability of losing in May is 99 % or thereabouts. Even if the midpoint prediction for December is worse, the probability of losing is (say) 98 %, because the horse may somehow learn to sing.

    2. There are few things more ex than an ex politician. Might as well keep the party going another seven months, even if it has reached the stage where people are throwing up behind the sofa.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    I can't believe Zelensky hasn't already thought of the brilliant ideas suggested on PB today, for winning the war against Putin


    1. Ask Putin to withdraw to the internationally recognised borders. I mean, that's genius. Ask him. Watch him cower. He will almost certainly fold

    And if that doesn't work

    2. Arm all the three year olds in Ukraine, and send them to war in Bakhmut, with their teddy bears
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    nico679 said:



    Netenyahu desperately wanting a reason to destroy Gaza isn’t that far fetched. Ali’s comments will resonate with quite a few voters even though it might seem unpalatable !

    “Netanyahu desperately wanting a reason to destroy Gaza isn’t that far fetched.”

    But it is far fetched, it is ignorant and stupid to think like that.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,669

    Fair point

    But then it’s a misnomer - it’s about reducing economic inequality not reducing poverty.
    Studies show that health outcomes are worse for people who are relatively poor in their country. What language should I use to describe this state of being relatively poor?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619
    nico679 said:



    Netenyahu desperately wanting a reason to destroy Gaza isn’t that far fetched. Ali’s comments will resonate with quite a few voters even though it might seem unpalatable !

    That’s not what he said.

    We also have left wing labour MPs suspended for saying far less.

    In your world it is all fake offence from so called PB Tories. However there is offence across the political divide at, what are, offensive comments.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    148grss said:

    This is interesting - especially in light of Putin's recent (dud of) an interview with Carlson. I was listening to a review of the interview that noted that it didn't seem to serve the shared purposes of the two people involved - namely saying all the talking points needed for the American right to get on board with Trump doing exactly this when he wins again, and instead was much more of Putin doing some historical revisionism and occasionally insulting Carlson, with Carlson seeming mostly confused, trying to get Putin to join him in his talking points (how Russia is the real defender of the West and Christendom and is fighting against the international deep state) with the occasional real journalistic question in seemingly out of a belief that Putin was having the conversation in good faith. Maybe that was Putin just recognising that he can win a war of attrition with Ukraine and starting his victory lap, or maybe Putin didn't feel he needed to play the propaganda game as he thinks Trump has it in the bag?
    I suspect Putin is just out of touch, like most dictators. He had a great opportunity to directly influence American (and to a lesser extent European) public opinion, and he completely fluffed it.

    I mean, about the only specific thing I learnt from this interview is that Putin said "Poland forced Hitler to invade." This kind of crap isn't going to help nurture the suspicion that Putin is actually sadly misunderstood.

    And even Harper of PB complained the interview was boring.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,820
    148grss said:

    I mean I'm a literal anarchist anti-fascist and he is the literal embodiment of where capital meets fascism. But sure, there is no difference between good things and bad things.
    According to your theories, do you not literally live in the imperial metropole while people are bombed to ensure you get access to a supply of cheap goods?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    SKS is an antesemite. Here he is smoling in a photoshoot with antesemite from Rochdale
    https://twitter.com/mag_worden
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,760
    Leon said:

    Brutal

    Ukraine has run out of men. The war is lost


    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68255490

    The views of one of the grieving mothers:

    Do you think my son wasn't afraid? I was afraid too, when he went. Everyone's afraid of dying," she answers, when I wonder what she thinks of those who avoid signing up to fight.

    "But maybe being enslaved by Russia is more frightening? Now we see death. It's very difficult. Very difficult. But there is no way back. We can't give up."

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    kamski said:

    I suspect Putin is just out of touch, like most dictators. He had a great opportunity to directly influence American (and to a lesser extent European) public opinion, and he completely fluffed it.

    I mean, about the only specific thing I learnt from this interview is that Putin said "Poland forced Hitler to invade." This kind of crap isn't going to help nurture the suspicion that Putin is actually sadly misunderstood.

    And even Harper of PB complained the interview was boring.
    You would have thought Putin's and Carlson's teams would have discussed this before hand.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    SKS is an antesemite. Here he is smoling in a photoshoot with antesemite from Rochdale
    https://twitter.com/mag_worden

    https://twitter.com/mag_worden
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    “Netanyahu desperately wanting a reason to destroy Gaza isn’t that far fetched.”

    But it is far fetched, it is ignorant and stupid to think like that.
    Yeah, Netanyahu didn't need an excuse - the long term plan was to do it slowly any way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    rcs1000 said:

    That's right: Ukraine is struggling to get troops to fill the front line.

    But so is Russia.

    You are absolutely right to point out Ukraine's difficulties, but you are curiously blind to Russia's.

    And defeat is so much worse for Ukraine than for Russia, that I suspect you will find they will keep being able to find men and women - exhausted and elderly and injured etc - for far, far longer than you might expect.
    Is Russia undermanned? Maybe, but

    "Serhiy was injured last autumn in Avdiivka, where the fighting has been fierce and even Ukrainian officials admit their army is outgunned and outmanned.

    One source put the difference at 8-1, in Russia's favour."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490

    Moreover, Putin doesn't really need to attack. He can defend what he has, and rely on Ukraine to give up, out of sheer exhaustion, because Ukraine no longer has the manpower or strength to mount another large offensive

    The war is frozen, and Ukraine cannot win. They might as well seek a ceasefire and save what few soldiers they have left
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    Leon said:

    Vale Atque Ave, @Casino_Royale

    This line does not work as well when you realise it's a line from "Event Horizon"...
  • Welcome back.

    For Obama to become the candidate, various increasingly impossible things need to happen:
    1. Biden is persuaded to retire. Likely his wife would need to insist with the DNC nodding sympathetically as she did so.
    2. Harris is told it won't be her and that she cannot argue the toss.
    3. Newsom and any other potential backup candidates told the same
    4. All of them comply
    5. Only now does Obama come into play. With (surely) Barack brought in to manage the campaign as if the DNC rely on the DNC to run the campaign, they will lose

    If Michelle Obama really the best option? I know that all the other options are awful, but Obama? Really? She can't campaign on having the experience America needs, or brilliant policy ideas, or the political strength needed to transform the country.

    Her campaign would be "I am not Donald Trump and you used to like my husband". More so if Barack is her Veep nominee (and yes, he could be...)
    I think that's right.

    She does have emotional intelligence in spades, and is also intelligent all round, but her political interest (by her own admission) isn't there at all, and she doesn't have the skills, interest or experience to deploy herself in that way even if she did.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,669
    sarissa said:

    It would be interesting if it produced a Rochdale Neale Hanvey!
    Would it? Ultimately, Hanvey was elected by people wanting an SNP MP, and after a period of suspension, the SNP quietly re-admitted him. If Labour kicked Ali out, he’d probably win, and then be re-admitted to the party in a few months. His only risk would be if a general election was held in May, but that’s not going to happen (pace Moonrabbit).
  • 148grss said:

    You would have thought Putin's and Carlson's teams would have discussed this before hand.
    They don't do healthy argument at the Kremlin, Comrade.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370

    I'm the same as you. I managed to lay her at 7/1 last week.

    The thinking seems to be:

    (1) Biden is past it, and will either 'pass-on' or withdraw
    (2) It can't be another white man
    (3) Kamala Harris is a Dem minority woman, but unpopular
    (4) Michelle Obama is a Dem minority woman, but very popular
    (5) Therefore, it must be Michelle Obama who's in poll position

    The trouble is that Michelle Obama has never shown the slightest interest in any sort of political career, let alone running for President, and you can't read across from the Clintons to the Obamas, despite the fact she's written a good book, done a couple of nice speeches and comes across well on TV. Also, I don't see the mechanism by which this all suddenly changes at the 11th hour at the Convention and she's magically coronated even if she wanted to be: she'd be untested (entirely), Kamala would have first dibs at Biden's running mate and, even if she fell under a bus, others would certainly compete for it.

    Because many people really believe in (1) to (5) they simply ignore this.

    This is name recognition and falls into the same category as the crazy prices available for Jeb Bush and Bloomberg available last time. Her price should be at least 40/1 (and probably north of 100/1) which makes this a very good value lay.
    Spot on.

    However, there is a specific (and I suspect bullshit) story doing the rounds that Michelle Obama met with a number of hedge funds at the Obama Foundation conference in November. At this, she (allegedly) said she was considering running.

    This reeks of shit for a number of reasons:

    (1) This isn't an investment conference, so why would hedge funds be there?
    (2) M Obama would only be meeting with hedge funds if she was looking to raise money for a run, not if she was abstractly thinking of doing so

    But most importantly:

    (3) She has never shown the slightest interest in being President.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    edited February 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    That's right: Ukraine is struggling to get troops to fill the front line.

    But so is Russia.

    You are absolutely right to point out Ukraine's difficulties, but you are curiously blind to Russia's.

    And defeat is so much worse for Ukraine than for Russia, that I suspect you will find they will keep being able to find men and women - exhausted and elderly and injured etc - for far, far longer than you might expect.
    The important thing is: what can and should we do?

    The more modern NATO equipment has been observed to better protect the lives of the soldiers inside it - so the more equipment we provide the fewer casualties Ukraine will suffer.

    If we provide more long range weapons, then Ukraine will be able to destroy ammunition and equipment before it reaches the frontline - and so Ukraine will suffer fewer casualties.

    If Ukraine does decide to reach a ceasefire, its hand in any negotiations will be strengthened by the support we provide.

    I come to the same conclusion. We should provide as much support to Ukraine as we are able. If we don't do so it will have consequences for us.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    Scott_xP said:

    'Rishi Sunak has to call an election in 6 weeks - he has no other choice'
    The Prime Minister cannot wait until Autumn to call a vote, says Fleet Street Fox. There'll be no-one left in Downing Street by then

    Here are some facts. There hasn't been an October election since 1974. Ten of the last 11 elections have all been held in spring or summer. There are local elections planned for May 2, and the spring budget date has been moved to a week or two earlier than expected, on March 6.

    And here's an assumption: the Conservative Party is going to be utterly decimated in the locals. Reform will make good ground among motivated anti-immigration voters, Labour will sweep the board in the north and midlands, and even Ed Davey's dire record on the Post Office scandal won't stop the Lib Dems cleaning up in the south.

    The question that would furrow Sunak's brow, if he cared about any of this, is: who's going to campaign for him in October? Who's going to stuff leaflets, who's going to give old ladies a lift to the polling station, who's going to stand in rainy high streets saying "vote Tory"? Not a single Conservative councillor, who will either have lost their seats five months previous or have scraped through by pretending not to have anything to do with That Lot In Westminster.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-call-election-march-32107086

    She’s nothing to do with me. She puts the argument so partisan and weakly. Not only not the strongest reasoning, there’s no reasoning there to add to the list!

    She is right though in knowing they realistically didn’t have the whole year to choose from, six months ago when they decided it was either May 2nd or October, and they chose May 2nd.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762

    The views of one of the grieving mothers:

    Do you think my son wasn't afraid? I was afraid too, when he went. Everyone's afraid of dying," she answers, when I wonder what she thinks of those who avoid signing up to fight.

    "But maybe being enslaved by Russia is more frightening? Now we see death. It's very difficult. Very difficult. But there is no way back. We can't give up."

    What do you expect a grieving mother to say?

    "Yeah, the war is lost, my son died in vain, it was all pointless"

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    HYUFD said:

    If Russia invaded France and Germany it certainly wouldn't be the US the beneficiary of NATO
    Assuming Trump lifted a finger to support France and Germany against the Russian invasion.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,193

    “Netanyahu desperately wanting a reason to destroy Gaza isn’t that far fetched.”

    But it is far fetched, it is ignorant and stupid to think like that.
    It’s quite simple, really. It’s about fixing reality to match your position.

    1) I feel for the plight of the Palestinians
    2) So, yay for Team Palestine
    3) Boo for Team Israel
    4) But some Palestinians did a Bad Thing
    5) But they are My Team. I am Good and so My Team is only Good
    6) So Bad Thing was really done by The Other Team
    7) So Team Palestine is All Good Again

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    Carnyx said:

    But who determines that? That's the issue. The vicar? Or the state? So why is the Party complaining about the vicars?
    The state, if you aren't already Christian at passport control no religious persecution claim
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,669

    Love it.

    Would drive MAGA's Crazy

    Or should I say crazier
    Obama (M)/Clinton (C) would drive them crazier!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    According to your theories, do you not literally live in the imperial metropole while people are bombed to ensure you get access to a supply of cheap goods?
    Yes - I live in the world.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Leon said:

    Is Russia undermanned? Maybe, but

    "Serhiy was injured last autumn in Avdiivka, where the fighting has been fierce and even Ukrainian officials admit their army is outgunned and outmanned.

    One source put the difference at 8-1, in Russia's favour."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490

    Moreover, Putin doesn't really need to attack. He can defend what he has, and rely on Ukraine to give up, out of sheer exhaustion, because Ukraine no longer has the manpower or strength to mount another large offensive

    The war is frozen, and Ukraine cannot win. They might as well seek a ceasefire and save what few soldiers they have left
    Russia is only 3x bigger than Ukraine.

    And holding territory you've captured is not free. You need troops to hold down the (unhappy) local population. Look at Northern Ireland: even though 55% of the population want us (against - what - 10% in Ukraine), it was incredibly expensive for us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    148grss said:

    I thought the Word was God - he spake and thus created all. Revelation was the means by which people knew Jesus and God prior to the bible - the bible was only cobbled together by Nicaea. So no Christians prior to 325AD?
    Not for asylum claims no and as you say we have now had a written Bible for millennia
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    HYUFD said:

    You certainly can if you are one of the 2 billion Christians still worldwide
    I would have thought that it would be pretty hard to say anything on the matter if you've been chucked out of the UK and put to death for apostasy in your home country.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322
    HYUFD said:

    If Russia invaded France and Germany it certainly wouldn't be the US the beneficiary of NATO
    Umm I think the idea is that there is an absolute commitment to mutual defence and that deters attacks, so the commitment itself saves everyone a lot of trouble. Seems to have worked so far, in the sense that Russia, for example, has invaded a few neighbours, but not any that are members of NATO no matter how small the country or how big a Russian minority they have.

    NATO's Article 5 has only been invoked once - after the Sept 11 attacks on the USA.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    It’s quite simple, really. It’s about fixing reality to match your position.

    1) I feel for the plight of the Palestinians
    2) So, yay for Team Palestine
    3) Boo for Team Israel
    4) But some Palestinians did a Bad Thing
    5) But they are My Team. I am Good and so My Team is only Good
    6) So Bad Thing was really done by The Other Team
    7) So Team Palestine is All Good Again

    For SKS and Sunak view just reverse the 2 camps
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    Not for asylum claims no and as you say we have now had a written Bible for millennia
    So revelation is not proof of religious belief?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    Leon said:

    What do you expect a grieving mother to say?

    "Yeah, the war is lost, my son died in vain, it was all pointless"

    Ummm:

    You'll find plenty of people who will say "my son died on a foreign field all for the leader's vanity".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    Leon said:

    Yep, that should cheer them up in Kyiv and Odesa

    ARM THE TODDLERS

    They could also put warheads at the front of baby strollers, and send them spinning along the mud at the Russian army, sure the baby will be blown up, but it will be so weird it might win the war overnight, because reasons
    The Ukranians have nothing to lose in defending their homeland in a way invading Russians whose homeland is another nation don't
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    edited February 2024

    She’s nothing to do with me. She puts the argument so partisan and weakly. Not only not the strongest reasoning, there’s no reasoning there to add to the list!

    She is right though in knowing they realistically didn’t have the whole year to choose from, six months ago when they decided it was either May 2nd or October, and they chose May 2nd.
    Worth saying they do need to decide by or on March 25th. If they announce it a day later the election date would be May 9th as you need 25 working days and Easter makes that calculation slightly more complex.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,820
    148grss said:

    Yes - I live in the world.
    You could choose to be a literal anarchist anti-fascist by joining one of these communes in Syria.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    148grss said:

    So revelation is not proof of religious belief?
    For asylum seekers it shouldn't be no
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,669
    edited February 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Russia is only 3x bigger than Ukraine.

    And holding territory you've captured is not free. You need troops to hold down the (unhappy) local population. Look at Northern Ireland: even though 55% of the population want us (against - what - 10% in Ukraine), it was incredibly expensive for us.
    Indeed. Russia has a much lower population density. Most of Russia is frozen swamp.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    You'll find plenty of people who will say "my son died on a foreign field all for the leader's vanity".
    Reading the history of the controversies over the memorials to the Great War fallen provides ample evidence for that - especially when the elite tried to take over the commemorations.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Not for asylum claims no and as you say we have now had a written Bible for millennia
    Not the Christian Old Testament, though. That's only one millennium and some centuries.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    You could choose to be a literal anarchist anti-fascist by joining one of these communes in Syria.
    I mean I do what I can here; I organise against street fascism and are part of organisations that aim to counter fascism. But also, this argument is facile -


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,762
    rcs1000 said:

    Ummm:

    You'll find plenty of people who will say "my son died on a foreign field all for the leader's vanity".

    This guy died on Ukrainian soil, for Ukraine, so your example is fatuous
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,018
    kamski said:

    Umm I think the idea is that there is an absolute commitment to mutual defence and that deters attacks, so the commitment itself saves everyone a lot of trouble. Seems to have worked so far, in the sense that Russia, for example, has invaded a few neighbours, but not any that are members of NATO no matter how small the country or how big a Russian minority they have.

    NATO's Article 5 has only been invoked once - after the Sept 11 attacks on the USA.
    True but the US could have invaded Afghanistan on its own and indeed it was US Navy Seals who killed Bin Laden.

    Indeed the US could defeat any other nation on its own, including Russia, except perhaps China
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    The state, if you aren't already Christian at passport control no religious persecution claim
    So why are your colleagues in the Party complaining about the poor vicars?
This discussion has been closed.