Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Boris to lead Reform UK? – politicalbetting.com

1356

Comments

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,604
    MattW said:

    It's the Kinky Boots.



    Surely if TSE was to be called up, he would insist on this uniform.
  • You makin’ an Ass out of ‘mption, again?
    "Assumption is the mother of all fukc-ups!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    edited January 2024
    algarkirk said:

    Yes, railways are run for the benefit of older people with time on their hands, enjoy the uncertainties of having no idea whether your train will run but have all day to find out, can book in advance and use a senior rail card. Since retirement this is me. Carry with you: earplugs, cash (as all sorts of facilities suddenly go to cash only when the electronics fail) and a readable very long book, Private Eye and the Economist.

    As a way of running a system for busy working people (I was one once) it's appalling and shameful.
    It's not just the fares though, is it? It's the lack of logic in much of the remaining network.

    I've been doing some work in north Worcestershire, Kidderminster to be exact. I looked at getting the train.

    It would actually be quicker to bike it.
  • MattW said:

    It's the Kinky Boots.



    Stalingrad chic...

    image
  • MattW said:

    It's the Kinky Boots.



    That shine maintained via daily buffing with congealed tears of conquered maidens from Suez to Sarawak.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850
    Judge Judy endorses Nikki Haley, saying that America deserves better than Trump or Biden.

    https://x.com/nikkihaley/status/1749942244990165333
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,262
    Top Trolling @NickPalmer !

    Go on, do it Boris, you know you want to...

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    mwadams said:

    I had noticed that my travel costs were substantially lower since I never have to travel peak time on a moment's notice any more.
    If you study the ticketing system you can beat it, like air fares.
    Getting the train to work in London can be £12 return compared with £70 if I book on the day in peak time.


  • Relegate Spurs.

    Joe Lewis, the billionaire and founder of the company who own Premier League club Tottenham Hotspur, pleaded guilty to securities fraud in court on Wednesday.

    The 86-year-old British businessman was indicted in the United States in July for “orchestrating a brazen insider trading scheme”.

    This, according to U.S. officials, involved the passing of information to “romantic partners and his private pilots.”

    Lewis’ lawyer had at the time of the indictment claimed the government had made “an egregious error in judgment” in charging him and promised to “defend him vigorously in court.”

    Lewis pleaded not guilty to all 16 counts on July 25 and his bail was set at $300million, secured against his 98-metre super yacht and aircraft.

    However, Lewis — who founded ENIC Sports Inc, the company which owns the vast majority of shares in Spurs — appeared in court in Manhattan on Wednesday to plead guilty to two counts of securities fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud.

    “I am so embarrassed and I apologise to the court for my conduct,” Lewis told U.S. district judge Jessica Clarke, via Reuters.

    Sentencing has been set for March with a stipulated guideline range of 18 to 24 months’ imprisonment.



    https://theathletic.com/5224427/2024/01/24/joe-lewis-case-tottenham-2/?source=user_shared_article

    Does giving share tips to lovers and pilots constitute a brazen insider trading scheme with $300 million bail? It sounds more like a silly old man trying to get his leg over. Lewis was also tied up with Irish horseracing squillionaires iirc.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Posties' union man: "I don't think there's a single postal worker that is not blind to the need for change in the postal service"

    I don't think Blanche is one-eyed but perhaps she should take over the leadership
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    Carnyx said:

    Not to mention garden bridges and island airports. Rather like playing those railway system or city building games without the faff of having to find the money and do the politics - you still get the fun.
    IMO yes and no. I have no problem with a few quid being spent by government asking questions like: "Can/should we build a fixed link between Scotland and Ireland?" or "What are the left-field options for fixing London's airport capacity?"

    In the case of the former, the Channel Tunnel came from France and the UK asking exactly that question. And a Thames airport has been considered many times in the past, e.g. Maplin Sands, of off Sheppey.

    Asking such questions is good government, even if the answer is :"No!". Occasionally the answer is "Yes!", although with caveats, and you can then start progressing. But if you don't ask the questions, you'll get...

    The Garden Bridge debacle was different in that it did it the 'wrong' way around. Instead of asking: "How can we improve cross-Thames transport for pedestrians and cyclists?", an architect got 'his' design chucked where he wanted it because, well, reasons. Hence we would have ended up with a bridge in the 'wrong' place, costing an absolute fortune, that was barely fit for purpose.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    Carnyx said:

    I thought the idea of the boomers was to volunteer *the young*, not themselves?
    Carnyx, one boomer is worth 10 "young"
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx, one boomer is worth 10 "young"
    How many boomers are worth one silent generation?
  • IMO yes and no. I have no problem with a few quid being spent by government asking questions like: "Can/should we build a fixed link between Scotland and Ireland?" or "What are the left-field options for fixing London's airport capacity?"

    In the case of the former, the Channel Tunnel came from France and the UK asking exactly that question. And a Thames airport has been considered many times in the past, e.g. Maplin Sands, of off Sheppey.

    Asking such questions is good government, even if the answer is :"No!". Occasionally the answer is "Yes!", although with caveats, and you can then start progressing. But if you don't ask the questions, you'll get...

    The Garden Bridge debacle was different in that it did it the 'wrong' way around. Instead of asking: "How can we improve cross-Thames transport for pedestrians and cyclists?", an architect got 'his' design chucked where he wanted it because, well, reasons. Hence we would have ended up with a bridge in the 'wrong' place, costing an absolute fortune, that was barely fit for purpose.
    Boris also cancelled the FAR MORE USEFUL East London River Crossing in 2008!
  • Does giving share tips to lovers and pilots constitute a brazen insider trading scheme with $300 million bail? It sounds more like a silly old man trying to get his leg over. Lewis was also tied up with Irish horseracing squillionaires iirc.
    Perhaps this guy ought to have consulted with Martha Stewart re: downsides of passing along hot stock tips?

    Certainly now would be timely, for him to ask her re: best ways to decorate one's federal prison cell!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,541
    Tory government about to plum even lower polling depths once this three-part drama about being a medic during covid (with tory ministers' PPE shortages and so on) hits itv?

    Being talked of as next 'Mr Bates' drama.



    Dr Rachel Clarke
    @doctor_oxford
    ·
    8h
    Thank you @thetimes for this amazing piece about BREATHTAKING - coming to
    @itv in Feb.

    We've tried so hard to show what really happened behind closed hospital doors - the grit & courage & compassion of NHS staff. And the same, in abundance, from patients & their families 💙

    https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Moving airports to offshore artificial islands has been done a fair bit.

    Given the value of the real estate for Heathrow, the project might even have *made* money.
    Sure - Honkers and Tokyo for two. And no earthquakes to speak of in the UK (that wartime cargo ship aside). But it didn't get anywhere, did it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Carnyx said:

    Sure - Honkers and Tokyo for two. And no earthquakes to speak of in the UK (that wartime cargo ship aside). But it didn't get anywhere, did it?
    The ship? No. Bloody thing is still there ready to go up at a moment's notice.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964
    Carnyx said:

    Sure - Honkers and Tokyo for two. And no earthquakes to speak of in the UK (that wartime cargo ship aside). But it didn't get anywhere, did it?
    And besides. who owns Heathrow now? Who gt the profit if the land is sold off?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited January 2024
    The way Boris gets back as Tory leader is

    Sunak binned
    Boris supporting MP in winnable seat resigns
    Boris is the candidate & wins by election
    Becomes leader

    2019 Tories are happy
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Is his dog an XXXL Bully?

    If so, how many of the poor folk did it eat, along with his homework?
    Timing, timing. None in the UK before, on checking, 2014.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,216

    "Assumption is the mother of all fukc-ups!"
    Check the baggage
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    ClippP said:

    And besides. who owns Heathrow now? Who gt the profit if the land is sold off?
    Good points! https://www.heathrow.com/company/about-heathrow

    "Heathrow Airport Holdings Limited is in turn owned by FGP Topco Limited, a consortium owned and led by the infrastructure specialist Ferrovial S.A. (25.00%), Qatar Investment Authority (20.00%), Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) (12.62%), GIC (11.20%), Australian Retirement Trust (11.18%), China Investment Corporation (10.00%) and Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) (10.00%)."

    So that'd have been some of our academics fed in their old age, if nothing else ).
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    isam said:

    The way Boris gets back as Tory leader is

    Sunak binned
    Boris supporting MP in winnable seat resigns
    Boris is the candidate & wins by election
    Becomes leader

    2019 Tories are happy

    There is a winnable Tory seat?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    ydoethur said:

    The ship? No. Bloody thing is still there ready to go up at a moment's notice.
    Nor did the airport and its traffic, either.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    Tory Rump Group?
    Or Trump Group for short.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    There is a winnable Tory seat?
    More precisely, a winnable Johnsonian seat?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    isam said:

    The way Boris gets back as Tory leader is

    Sunak binned
    Boris supporting MP in winnable seat resigns
    Boris is the candidate & wins by election
    Becomes leader

    2019 Tories are happy

    Somewhere in that list is

    - Boris has Damascene conversion, takes the job seriously and convinces the voters he is good at it. Hmmm....

    The easier single step is

    - Rishi convinces the voters he is better than Starmer at the job.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,216
    ydoethur said:

    The ship? No. Bloody thing is still there ready to go up at a moment's notice.
    Aside from the farcical estimates of yield if the ship did go up, and the hilariously exaggerated effects claimed for it, the replacement for Heathrow didn’t need to be anywhere near it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    At least in this weeks PMQs, Starmer finally resisted pointing out he was a DPP putting terrorists away.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    There is a winnable Tory seat?
    That’s the tricky part!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    Surely if TSE was to be called up, he would insist on this uniform.
    He'd certainly look suitably zuoave....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Somewhere in that list is

    - Boris has Damascene conversion, takes the job seriously and convinces the voters he is good at it. Hmmm....

    The easier single step is

    - Rishi convinces the voters he is better than Starmer at the job.
    The 2019 Tories massively prefer him to Rishi. Let’s be fair, if it weren’t for the very unusual scenario of Covid, he’d be leader now, and probably on course for another majority. It suits him to be the comeback kid anyway, it’s the perfect role for chancers
  • Unfortunatement, they charge booking fees!
    A couple of quid to save £40 on a trip I took recently.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,395
    TimS said:

    It’s blowing a hoolie in Hamburg where I’m waiting for a flight. I just saw my incoming BA flight land - one of the advantages of an otherwise mediocre lounge is a nice runway view - and it was doing that side to side wobble thing where you wonder if the wing tip will touch the runway. Forget helicopter tours of the Grand Canyon, this is mildly disconcerting.

    Tip in mediocre German airport lounges: the best of a bad bunch of drinks is usually weissburgunder (Pinot Blanc, typically mass produced in Pfalz) which every lounge in the nation seems to stock. Better than the fizzy beer.

    Ahhh yes, but in most of the German airport lounges, you get to pour your own beer.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    At least in this weeks PMQs, Starmer finally resisted pointing out he was a DPP putting terrorists away.

    Was he a DPP putting terrorists away? I thought his father was a toolmaker

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Great thread header Nick Palmer!

    As after I watch a good horror film, I shall be having nightmares now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Carnyx said:

    Nor did the airport and its traffic, either.
    Surely no planes have gone up from the airport at a moment or any other form of notice?
  • UK water giant admits attackers broke into system as gang holds it to ransom
    Comes mere months after Western intelligence agencies warned of attacks on water providers

    https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/23/southern_water_confirms_cyberattack/

    Southern Water. Attackers claim to have stolen scans of identity documents such as passports and driving licenses. Oh dear.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371

    At least in this weeks PMQs, Starmer finally resisted pointing out he was a DPP putting terrorists away.

    I don't know why he makes so much of it; his supporters seem to think DPP is an impotent role with no responsibilities; a sinecure. ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Leon said:

    OK I’m going to Challenge the Narrative

    SUNAK ISN’T THAT BAD

    I am now spending so much time OUT of the UK (a bit more than half the year, the last two years) I reckon I am getting a perspective. Or I hope so. Seen from afar Sunak’s government is not that disastrous, relatively, and Sunak himself is far from a disaster. He comes across as honest (unlike Boris), and as sane (unlike Truss) and as personable and articulate (unlike TMay). He is intelligent and kind if a bit unworldly (it seems to me). His wealth is an issue, but on the upside it insulates him from corruption - he does not need to be corrupt

    His policies may disappoint many but these are disappointing times for almost every western nation. The west as a whole is in quite steep relative decline and nearly all major western countries face similar and grievous challenges - mass migration, demographic descent, illegal migration, global insecurity, climate change, energy prices, a need to beef up defence even as these societies age, and so on and so forth. Sunak is facing the same problems as Macron, Schulz, Meloni, Biden etc and it is not obvious to me that he is doing notably WORSE than any of them; and its even less obvious that Starmer has the ideas, energy, brilliance that will make things better

    Sunak is a perfectly adequate prime minister doing the job of prime minister at maybe the worst possible time in the last 40 years, and he’s a Tory PM at the arse-end of 13 disappointing Tory years

    He’s just *unlucky*

    I’ve made the same point in respect of Biden. His record is actually pretty good verging on impressive but the west sees its power and influence slipping away and are pretty unhappy about it.

    So they indulge fantasists like Trump who promise to make them top dog again. In the UK Starmer doesn’t even offer that. Just more of the same with a slightly wild claim of more competence.

    But this despond has to be someone’s fault and it can’t be ours so blame the PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited January 2024

    Judge Judy endorses Nikki Haley, saying that America deserves better than Trump or Biden.

    https://x.com/nikkihaley/status/1749942244990165333

    I'm a firm believer in the idea that we get the politicians we deserve. America wants Biden vs Trump rematch, despite what they may claim, that's why it will reoccur.
    isam said:

    The 2019 Tories massively prefer him to Rishi. Let’s be fair, if it weren’t for the very unusual scenario of Covid, he’d be leader now, and probably on course for another majority. It suits him to be the comeback kid anyway, it’s the perfect role for chancers
    It should have been hard to lose outright after the big win of 2019, I don't think it's talked enough about how strange it is that Boris was vulnerable enough to fall to an internal coup. Whether supporting or opposing that coup he really should not have been weak enough to be ousted only 3 years after that win. Be it Covid or his own flaws or a combination of both, it was really odd.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited January 2024

    I don't know why he makes so much of it; his supporters seem to think DPP is an impotent role with no responsibilities; a sinecure. ;)
    Nonsense! It’s not easy taking the credit for every successful big case whilst spreading the blame around for each high profile blunder. It takes a skilled operator to walk that line
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Interesting plot Nick. I hope you are wrong. It does highlight the problem with Reform though. What is their pitch? Farage at heart has always been a city trader. Tice is a businessman. What is Johnson? The Brexity Hezza who opened the door to mass immigration from outside the EU? Who would criticise him for this though? Maybe Farage?

    The SDP seem like the more appropriate party for disgruntled red wall voters but they are still stuck in relative obscurity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited January 2024
    ydoethur said:

    I think the most bizarre thing about the current Horizon saga is that despite all of this, the Post Office still use an updated version of Horizon.

    It's been tested and 'found to be robust compared to previous systems.'

    I mean - really? That's an endorsement? It's like saying somebody is more honest than Goebbels. Or has more knowledge of education than Nick Gibb.

    I would have thought any sane organisation would have used paper and an abacus operated by a gorilla in preference to Horizon, but even as I typed that I spotted the flaw in my logic.

    No, I believe you are misguided on this. I know little about Horizon but my experience of large complex financial services systems is that the longer they are in used the less buggy they become - because the errors do tend to get fixed eventually.

    In all probability Horizon is reasonably robust now. It may not be efficient, it may not be easy to amend and enhance but it is almost certainly as robust as it has ever been.

    Scrapping it now and replacing it would merely introduce another new highly bug-ridden system.

    This is the reason most retail banks are running on systems that started life in the 60s or 70s.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    edited January 2024
    kle4 said:

    I'm a firm believer in the idea that we get the politicians we deserve. America wants Biden vs Trump rematch, despite what they may claim, that's why it will reoccur. It should have been hard to lose outright after the big win of 2019, I don't think it's talked enough about how strange it is that Boris was vulnerable enough to fall to an internal coup. Whether supporting or opposing that coup he really should not have been weak enough to be ousted only 3 years after that win. Be it Covid or his own flaws or a combination of both, it was really odd.
    The Tories, much like people on here, seemed to think winning a huge majority was a doddle, despite none of them except Boris managing it in the last thirty seven years.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,825

    They probably learned the wrong lessons from the privatisation of BT.
    The Major solution was illegal under EU law.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    O/T I have signed up for 3 free months of Apple TV on the back of Mrs P's new iPhone offer, principally to watch Masters of the Air.

    Is there anything else on AppleTV I should take a look at?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    edited January 2024
    Leon said:

    OK I’m going to Challenge the Narrative

    SUNAK ISN’T THAT BAD

    I am now spending so much time OUT of the UK (a bit more than half the year, the last two years) I reckon I am getting a perspective. Or I hope so. Seen from afar Sunak’s government is not that disastrous, relatively, and Sunak himself is far from a disaster. He comes across as honest (unlike Boris), and as sane (unlike Truss) and as personable and articulate (unlike TMay). He is intelligent and kind if a bit unworldly (it seems to me). His wealth is an issue, but on the upside it insulates him from corruption - he does not need to be corrupt

    His policies may disappoint many but these are disappointing times for almost every western nation. The west as a whole is in quite steep relative decline and nearly all major western countries face similar and grievous challenges - mass migration, demographic descent, illegal migration, global insecurity, climate change, energy prices, a need to beef up defence even as these societies age, and so on and so forth. Sunak is facing the same problems as Macron, Schulz, Meloni, Biden etc and it is not obvious to me that he is doing notably WORSE than any of them; and its even less obvious that Starmer has the ideas, energy, brilliance that will make things better

    Sunak is a perfectly adequate prime minister doing the job of prime minister at maybe the worst possible time in the last 40 years, and he’s a Tory PM at the arse-end of 13 disappointing Tory years

    He’s just *unlucky*

    I don't think he's 'just' unlucky. I have plenty of sympathy with the idea he is pretty adequate in a lot of ways, albeit inadequate to face up to the challenges the country is facing. And it may even be true that at an earlier moment he might have been a decent PM, even though since he became PM earlier than anyone in at least 120 years he could not have risen any faster.

    But the counter to that is he has failed on his own terms - polling has not improved, it has declined, he's either unable to tackle major policy issues despite a comfortable majority or unwilling, and he seems to have no sense of vision or direction. Accepting that we are in disappointing, declining times for us, only mitigates him so much.

    And of course most PMs might be able to claim they could have done alright had they not faced the particular challenges they did. Would Cameron have been well placed to lead the Brexit years? No. Would Boris havebeen well placed to lead a minority or a coalition? No. Would May have been ok if not facing Brexit? Maybe.

    I feel like history may judge that Sunak did not deserve the sheer level of defeat he will suffer, but that's not much solace to him now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    O/T I have signed up for 3 free months of Apple TV on the back of Mrs P's new iPhone offer, principally to watch Masters of the Air.

    Is there anything else on AppleTV I should take a look at?

    Slow Horses!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,709

    Tory government about to plum even lower polling depths once this three-part drama about being a medic during covid (with tory ministers' PPE shortages and so on) hits itv?

    Being talked of as next 'Mr Bates' drama.



    Dr Rachel Clarke
    @doctor_oxford
    ·
    8h
    Thank you @thetimes for this amazing piece about BREATHTAKING - coming to
    @itv in Feb.

    We've tried so hard to show what really happened behind closed hospital doors - the grit & courage & compassion of NHS staff. And the same, in abundance, from patients & their families 💙

    https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford

    I wouldn’t, say five years ago, have said that we should rule the country according to ITV dramas, but maybe it’s a better system than Tory leadership contests.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,709
    isam said:

    The way Boris gets back as Tory leader is

    Sunak binned
    Boris supporting MP in winnable seat resigns
    Boris is the candidate & wins by election
    Becomes leader

    2019 Tories are happy

    Is there a single constituency in the country that would be safe for the Conservatives at a by-election right now?

    Also, who’s leader after Sunak is binned, and why would they support Johnson returning to the Commons?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,825

    Judge Judy endorses Nikki Haley, saying that America deserves better than Trump or Biden.

    https://x.com/nikkihaley/status/1749942244990165333

    That's a good endorsement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    isam said:

    The Tories, much like people on here, seemed to think winning a huge majority was a doddle, despite none of them except Boris managing it in the last thirty seven years.
    There were situational factors which contributed to it which would be hard to repeat, and of course the opposition factor, but I think it would be churlish to not accept Boris proved the right man in the right moment for them in achieving such a big win.

    Of course, Boris 2022 was not the same man as Boris 2019, I think the idea all would be well that some of his fans push is improbable, but it's not as though there is no possibility they would be better off.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317
    ...

    Is there a single constituency in the country that would be safe for the Conservatives at a by-election right now?

    Also, who’s leader after Sunak is binned, and why would they support Johnson returning to the Commons?
    Clacton.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,604
    isam said:

    The way Boris gets back as Tory leader is

    Sunak binned
    Boris supporting MP in winnable seat resigns
    Boris is the candidate & wins by election
    Becomes leader

    2019 Tories are happy

    Trying to think of a winnable seat. Richmond (Yorks)?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322

    Slow Horses!
    I enjoyed Shrinking.

    And Ted Lasso even if a bit kitschy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233

    Trying to think of a winnable seat. Richmond (Yorks)?
    Banff is interesting
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Did we ever get to the bottom of that Telegraph/YouGov 'Any other Tory leader' map?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,709

    Interesting plot Nick. I hope you are wrong. It does highlight the problem with Reform though. What is their pitch? Farage at heart has always been a city trader. Tice is a businessman. What is Johnson? The Brexity Hezza who opened the door to mass immigration from outside the EU? Who would criticise him for this though? Maybe Farage?

    The SDP seem like the more appropriate party for disgruntled red wall voters but they are still stuck in relative obscurity.

    They’ve got 2 councillors, which is 40% of Reform UK’s total. It’s twice the number of councillors the Alba Party has.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Simon Clarke kept some nice friends at uni:

    @OwenJones84
    Simon Clarke was in the year below me at university, and his crew were the first Tories I'd then met.

    And all I'm saying is it had quite the lasting impact on my politics!

    His best friend was
    @CllrCarlJackson
    , who sent me these messages after we graduated.


    image

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1750147189932782025?s=20
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    kamski said:

    I enjoyed Shrinking.

    And Ted Lasso even if a bit kitschy.
    I’m watching For All Mankind I like too, because it’s different. It certainly looks the part, very arty late sixties look and feel. What they should have done though, because we are not feeling what they are feeling as the first episode opened, is done the whole of the first series as a tightly observed factual, till the Russian landing in June in the last episode. The counterfactual not only means you don’t know what happens next, is Ted Kennedy so caught up in the nations mood he decides not to go partying on Chappaquiddick Island but go to Washington for the hearings? Will Apollo 11 find the surface rocky and crash?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    Simon Clarke kept some nice friends at uni:

    @OwenJones84
    Simon Clarke was in the year below me at university, and his crew were the first Tories I'd then met.

    And all I'm saying is it had quite the lasting impact on my politics!

    His best friend was
    @CllrCarlJackson
    , who sent me these messages after we graduated.


    image

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1750147189932782025?s=20

    Horrible stuff, though I'm distracted by the comment that he had not met any Tories until he was at university. Presumably he had but did not know it until then.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,604
    Pulpstar said:

    Banff is interesting
    @RochdalePioneers would agree with you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371

    The Major solution was illegal under EU law.
    Yes, apparently. Although I have recently heard other voices state that that was the DfT (or its predecessor) and the Treasury's reading of EU law, rather than actual EU law. In that if we'd explained why we wanted that sort of split, and put in place safeguards to allow Open Access / other operators, they would have been okay with it. But the question was never asked.

    Though that sort of split would not have fixed some of the big issues that faced BR, and which privatisation in the form that happened, did. In fact, the same issues bedeviled the Big Four as well...
  • Simon Clarke kept some nice friends at uni:

    @OwenJones84
    Simon Clarke was in the year below me at university, and his crew were the first Tories I'd then met.

    And all I'm saying is it had quite the lasting impact on my politics!

    His best friend was
    @CllrCarlJackson
    , who sent me these messages after we graduated.


    image

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1750147189932782025?s=20

    Those look iMessages which didn't exist in 2005.

    I am intrigued by what messaging platform was used.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371

    Those look iMessages which didn't exist in 2005.

    I am intrigued by what messaging platform was used.
    Owen Jones lying? Surely not!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited January 2024

    I’m watching For All Mankind I like too, because it’s different. It certainly looks the part, very arty late sixties look and feel. What they should have done though, because we are not feeling what they are feeling as the first episode opened, is done the whole of the first series as a tightly observed factual, till the Russian landing in June in the last episode. The counterfactual not only means you don’t know what happens next, is Ted Kennedy so caught up in the nations mood he decides not to go partying on Chappaquiddick Island but go to Washington for the hearings? Will Apollo 11 find the surface rocky and crash?
    Don’t bother with Killers of the Flower Moon. You could make one neat snip taking off the first hour and end up with a better film. It surprised me I enjoyed Napoleon more, based on what I anticipated from the two films, though I still wouldn’t recommend it.
    It’s not about length, the Irishman was three hours too, but raced along.


  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Those look iMessages which didn't exist in 2005.

    I am intrigued by what messaging platform was used.
    I was wondering about that earlier - but seeing as though I didn't get a smart phone until Jan 2016, I assumed that I was just a long way behind the curve.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Simon Clarke kept some nice friends at uni:

    @OwenJones84
    Simon Clarke was in the year below me at university, and his crew were the first Tories I'd then met.

    And all I'm saying is it had quite the lasting impact on my politics!

    His best friend was
    @CllrCarlJackson
    , who sent me these messages after we graduated.


    image

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1750147189932782025?s=20

    That type of messaging system wasn't around in 2005 was it?
  • tlg86 said:

    I was wondering about that earlier - but seeing as though I didn't get a smart phone until Jan 2016, I assumed that I was just a long way behind the curve.
    The iPhone was launched in 2007 and iMessages wasn't launched until 2011.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    kle4 said:

    I don't think he's 'just' unlucky. I have plenty of sympathy with the idea he is pretty adequate in a lot of ways, albeit inadequate to face up to the challenges the country is facing. And it may even be true that at an earlier moment he might have been a decent PM, even though since he became PM earlier than anyone in at least 120 years he could not have risen any faster.

    But the counter to that is he has failed on his own terms - polling has not improved, it has declined, he's either unable to tackle major policy issues despite a comfortable majority or unwilling, and he seems to have no sense of vision or direction. Accepting that we are in disappointing, declining times for us, only mitigates him so much.

    And of course most PMs might be able to claim they could have done alright had they not faced the particular challenges they did. Would Cameron have been well placed to lead the Brexit years? No. Would Boris havebeen well placed to lead a minority or a coalition? No. Would May have been ok if not facing Brexit? Maybe.

    I feel like history may judge that Sunak did not deserve the sheer level of defeat he will suffer, but that's not much solace to him now.
    Sunak isn't 'just' unlucky, he's not unlucky at all.

    Completely the opposite: he's lucky, lucky, lucky! - as was cogently argued in a thread header last month.

    Let me repeat: Sunak has been incredibly lucky to become PM at all, unbelievably lucky.

    The fact that he's a very poor PM is a in part the result that he hasn't had to strive to get there. He got there through luck, not inherent skill, and as a result we should not be surprised that he does not have the skill to do the job well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Is there a single constituency in the country that would be safe for the Conservatives at a by-election right now?

    Also, who’s leader after Sunak is binned, and why would they support Johnson returning to the Commons?
    Quite a few probably. South Holland & the Deepings, Castle Point, Maldon, South Staffs, Christchurch, etc.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,825
    Leon said:

    He’s made errors of course. I’m not claiming he’s a great prime monster - he clearly isn’t. I am merely saying he is a decent middling PM who just happens to be in power when times are as tough as most of us can remember - literally war and plague are stalking the globe

    And he has inherited an awful lot of shite policies from prior PMs of all stripes. Migration is a massive issue - but not of his doing. Post Covid health issues are also huge - not his fault

    Anyway he’ll be gone this year. And then we will have Starmer’s boring nasal tones explaining why nothing is getting especially better, and he’ll be doing it with extra loads of Wokeness

    He will be unpopular after a year and likely loathed after two or three
    Your initial post consists of a lot of points that might have seemed valid to me at one time, but they're not borne out by the way events have developed. Sunak being incorruptibly rich for example - I have made that very point. Yet, there is a repeated theme of the personal enrichment of the Sunaks occurring as a result of policy decisions taken by Sunak. That may all be perfectly above board, but it's there. Perhaps one can never be too rich.

    As for his USP, the 'dull' managerialism - we live in challenging times requiring significant changes instigated by a determined Government. Truss understood that for all her faults. Rishi's inaction in the face of the COL crisis amounts to an attack on living standards. He seems satisfied to do some twiddling and have a few 'wedge issues', but overall to lie back and accept 'the new normal' and its devastating impact on the public.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    geoffw said:

    Was he a DPP putting terrorists away? I thought his father was a toolmaker

    I think today Starmer used what Rishi was doing in 2008 for the first time, rather than merely threaten to use it, Trump style.

    My view of Starmer is changing to someone who’s a bit of a bruiser, can take it and no qualms to dish it.
  • O/T I have signed up for 3 free months of Apple TV on the back of Mrs P's new iPhone offer, principally to watch Masters of the Air.

    Is there anything else on AppleTV I should take a look at?

    No but the BBC is currently plugging its 2012 series Jet! When Britain Ruled the Skies
    Series which celebrates an unlikely story of outstanding British aviation achievement at a time of national austerity, the breathtaking planes that were built and the remarkable men who flew them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b01m85vv/jet-when-britain-ruled-the-skies

    Episode 1. Military Marvels
    How Britain led the world into the jet age with a new generation of fighters and bombers.

    Episode 2. The Shape of Things to Come
    A look at how, by 1960, the UK's passenger airline industry was the largest in the world.



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Immigration and Instability
    Ireland is struggling with new realities in an age of global migration.
    Brian Kaller"

    https://quillette.com/2024/01/19/anti-immigration-riots-in-ireland/
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,820
    kle4 said:

    Horrible stuff, though I'm distracted by the comment that he had not met any Tories until he was at university. Presumably he had but did not know it until then.
    He grew up in fucking Bramhall. It seems inconceivable he wouldn't have known any Tories.
    Granted, he is almost a decade younger than me - but still. Tories aplenty in the comfortable outer suburbs of Stockport in those days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Andy_JS said:

    Quite a few probably. South Holland & the Deepings, Castle Point, Maldon, South Staffs, Christchurch, etc.
    South Staffs is being divvied up at the next election.

    That said, I will be very surprised if Stone, Penkridge and Great Wyrley goes Labour.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,820

    The iPhone was launched in 2007 and iMessages wasn't launched until 2011.
    I knew your devotion to Apple products would prove relevant or instructive eventually!

    So the conclusion is, what, Owen Jones has fabricated this whole thing?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371
    Cookie said:

    I knew your devotion to Apple products would prove relevant or instructive eventually!

    So the conclusion is, what, Owen Jones has fabricated this whole thing?
    Who knows. But the problem with faking something like a screenshot is that it throws what he's saying into doubt.

    Unless he's managed to upload old messages onto the new system?

    (I lost a load of old SMS messages I'd kept for years when an old phone went wrong. I also lost all my WhatsApp stuff at the same time...)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Did we ever get to the bottom of that Telegraph/YouGov 'Any other Tory leader' map?

    There was a bit on it in the statistics program on R4 this morning. Apparently that bit of fantasy was done by the Telegraph and Yougov are disowning it. What they did is assume 100% of Reform voters would vote Tory under any other leader.

    In other words it was complete nonsense.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,705
    edited January 2024
    Cookie said:

    I knew your devotion to Apple products would prove relevant or instructive eventually!

    So the conclusion is, what, Owen Jones has fabricated this whole thing?
    He says it’s from Facebook, and has posted an additional screenshot. So probably real.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Is there a single constituency in the country that would be safe for the Conservatives at a by-election right now?

    Also, who’s leader after Sunak is binned, and why would they support Johnson returning to the Commons?
    I don’t know the constituencies. Mine (Brentwood) stayed Blue in that MRP

    Boris patsy as caretaker until he’s an MP again
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548

    Simon Clarke kept some nice friends at uni:

    @OwenJones84
    Simon Clarke was in the year below me at university, and his crew were the first Tories I'd then met.

    And all I'm saying is it had quite the lasting impact on my politics!

    His best friend was
    @CllrCarlJackson
    , who sent me these messages after we graduated.


    image

    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1750147189932782025?s=20

    Well, if Clark was friends with somebody like that, he's definitely not worth listening to. I mean, who would like a friend of Owen Jones?

    Carl Jackson sounds a right charmer and all if those messages are genuine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    Who knows. But the problem with faking something like a screenshot is that it throws what he's saying into doubt.

    Unless he's managed to upload old messages onto the new system?

    (I lost a load of old SMS messages I'd kept for years when an old phone went wrong. I also lost all my WhatsApp stuff at the same time...)
    You are Boris Johnson and I claim my £5!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,825

    He didn't start by asking the right question- what was a Sunak Premiership for?

    The sensible answer would have been to tidy the worst of the mess, get a couple of low controversy personal passion legacy projects on the books. Probably leading to better regards in a decade or so.

    Instead, we get these bad mad bets at increasingly poor odds. Anything to move the dial, with more and more panic as the dial refuses to move.
    The half-hearted performative right wing flashes of Rishi (which in the case of his Net Zero handbrake was the only thing that resulted in a positive poll shift for him) are a shame, because they allow idiots to suggest that Rishi's problem has been that he wasn't centrist Dad enough.
  • Cookie said:

    I knew your devotion to Apple products would prove relevant or instructive eventually!

    So the conclusion is, what, Owen Jones has fabricated this whole thing?
    It may well be another messaging platform but the odds of a 2005 platform looking the Apple messaging platform from circa 2018 onwards, well I have my doubts.
  • carnforth said:

    He says it’s from Facebook, and has posted an additional screenshot. So probably real.
    Aww, a whole inverted pyramid of conspiracist piffle gone in a flash.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    carnforth said:

    He says it’s from Facebook, and has posted an additional screenshot. So probably real.
    Facebook was founded in 2004 - so that could work - but Facebook Messenger not until 2011, I think?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Quite a few probably. South Holland & the Deepings, Castle Point, Maldon, South Staffs, Christchurch, etc.
    From the Brandreth Diaries in 1991, on telling his wife he was in the running to the Conservative candidate for Chester.

    Her first response was "it's fucking miles away". There hasn't been a second response.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    No but the BBC is currently plugging its 2012 series Jet! When Britain Ruled the Skies
    Series which celebrates an unlikely story of outstanding British aviation achievement at a time of national austerity, the breathtaking planes that were built and the remarkable men who flew them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b01m85vv/jet-when-britain-ruled-the-skies

    Episode 1. Military Marvels
    How Britain led the world into the jet age with a new generation of fighters and bombers.

    Episode 2. The Shape of Things to Come
    A look at how, by 1960, the UK's passenger airline industry was the largest in the world.



    Hmmm... I think that was first broadcast in 2012.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,705
    ydoethur said:

    Facebook was founded in 2004 - so that could work - but Facebook Messenger not until 2011, I think?
    Here’s the other screenshot. Perhaps existing conversations got imported into Messenger.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,371

    You are Boris Johnson and I claim my £5!
    I've mentioned it before, when people said it was impossible to lose WhatsApp messages. Well, I blooming well managed to, and I'm supposed to be technically literate!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    It may well be another messaging platform but the odds of a 2005 platform looking the Apple messaging platform from circa 2018 onwards, well I have my doubts.
    Your doubts might be valid but it's an odd thing to fake given the risks of techies pulling the fake apart not to mention libel litigation.

    I suspect it's real but I cannot pretend to know why it looks like it does.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,820

    Aww, a whole inverted pyramid of conspiracist piffle gone in a flash.
    Facebook definitely didn't look like that in 2005.
    I'm also pretty sceptical he and his adversary were both on facebook in 2005. I was at uni in 2007 and it was 9nky just catching on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    edited January 2024
    carnforth said:

    Here’s the other screenshot. Perhaps existing conversations got imported into Messenger.


    That does not look like Messenger to me, imported or otherwise. That still looks like iMessage.

    Edit - TBF, it probably isn't important. It just looks odd, especially since Jones must have kept these messages for 19 years - why?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,705
    Cookie said:

    Facebook definitely didn't look like that in 2005.
    I'm also pretty sceptical he and his adversary were both on facebook in 2005. I was at uni in 2007 and it was 9nky just catching on.
    Remember Facebook was invite-only for posh unis to begin with, and he was at Oxford.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548

    I've mentioned it before, when people said it was impossible to lose WhatsApp messages. Well, I blooming well managed to, and I'm supposed to be technically literate!
    Perhaps that's how you did it?
This discussion has been closed.