Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Classification – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • There's one other way, which also has a lot wrong with it.

    Say as little as possible pre-election. Then having won, say "My predecessor left things in an even worse state then we thought." Go in hard with the painful stuff, and hope that it's worked in five years.

    Horribly dishonest, but possibly better than we deserve.
    There's another way which is to get rid of exemptions and special cases and simply tax everyone at the same rate.

    Yes that will be a steep tax rise for those currently cushy and used to paying less than others with the same earnings have to pay, but for working people it wouldn't be a tax rise at all. Apart from working people engaging in dodging taxes.

    Its not unreasonable to say that everyone earning the same amount should pay the same amount of tax, but it would be transformative to our tax take if it were so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    On the other hand I fully expect to hate Starmer with a wildly unbridled passion within 2 days of his taking office, so it evens out

    I’m trying to think of a British politician I respect, from any side, for his or her wit, grace, courage, intellect, honesty, anything - it is damnably hard

    Weirdly, the best I can do is Katie Forbes. I also respected Ruth Davidson. I must have a thing for Scottish lasses
  • eek said:

    Refactoring is painful but at times it's unavoidable.

    and it's not as if a double book account keeping is difficult it's 4 steps that either need to all succeed or your things back

    1) update balance account 1
    2) update balance account 2
    3) add transaction to account 1's list of transactions
    4) add transaction to account 2's list of transactions

    And all this is done at 1 central point because otherwise you have problems - it's why all the historic banks have mainframes...

    Mind you I don't thnk they were the only people with problems - I've heard multiple stories of banks insisting on people starting from an empty base every time (resulting in the wheel being invented 50 times with 50 variants all with different bugs).
    Further to Ian's point, Eek, Richard Rolls testified to the Inquiry that when he told his Fujitsu Manager that they needed to recode from scratch, the manager agreed but lamented 'It ain't gonna happen'.
  • There's another way which is to get rid of exemptions and special cases and simply tax everyone at the same rate.

    Yes that will be a steep tax rise for those currently cushy and used to paying less than others with the same earnings have to pay, but for working people it wouldn't be a tax rise at all. Apart from working people engaging in dodging taxes.

    Its not unreasonable to say that everyone earning the same amount should pay the same amount of tax, but it would be transformative to our tax take if it were so.
    The exemptions and special cases usually exist through necessity though. And people lose their shit when you take something away from them. Remember how the retired used to have a larger tax allowance than working people, and the coalition in their ramping up of tax free allowances for everyone aligned the tax free allowance upwards, including for the retired, but the absence of a special larger allowance (even though no worse off) was enough for George Osborne to have been accused of a "granny tax".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    David Penhaligon, I liked him. But he died in the 1900s so it doesn’t really count

    Before him, Bismarck. Before that maybe Vortigern
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited January 2024

    A key point to add to your 4 steps is to checkpoint at the start and end of the set of 4 steps so that, if any step fails you automatically roll-back to the checkpoint position.
    not really a fallback checkpoint only works if you don't have other transactions in progress at the time but if you had 2 transactions running in parallel with 1 starting a millisecond after the other you end up with transaction 1 succeeding, but were transaction 2 to fail the rollback to the checkpoint for transaction 2 would set the balance back to where it was before transaction 1 started.

    ideally you would have multiple locks on tables to make the disaster I outlined above impossible to ensure only 1 transaction is working on things at a time but that isn't always the case.

    The point to take here is that even things that are really simple start to get complex when you are talking about multiple items occurring in parallel and the first solution you come up with may work i some scenarios but not others.

    I'm really clear cut at work when doing this stuff even when I have the solution - that I'm going to sleep on it and let the nightly filing my brain does as I sleep pick up the flaws in the plan...
  • Matters less parochial, though I realise that the Eye of PB has moved on from Gaza. I believe there are now more dead journalists after 2 months of Gaza than in the whole Vietnam war. Needless to say many more dead journalists' kids.


  • The exemptions and special cases usually exist through necessity though. And people lose their shit when you take something away from them. Remember how the retired used to have a larger tax allowance than working people, and the coalition in their ramping up of tax free allowances for everyone aligned the tax free allowance upwards, including for the retired, but the absence of a special larger allowance (even though no worse off) was enough for George Osborne to have been accused of a "granny tax".
    That's politics and not necessity and who talks about that now?

    Merge National Insurance, Graduate Tax and all other income-related taxes into the same rate of taxation as Income Tax and the tax take would go up tremendously as everyone starts on the same rate of tax. Yes, those who expect others to pay more tax than them will squeal like a pig, but the budget issues will be resolved and from there taxes can be lowered evenly across the board, or spending can rise, depending upon you political preference.

    Everyone's income should be treated the same by HMRC no matter how its earned.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    edited January 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Well yes, in the sense if God exists even if you are the only believer who follows the Bible fervently left on earth you are also the only one left certain to go to heaven
    Not that you follow the Bible fervently - or in the least respect - given that you don't give away all your money and "take no thought for the morrow". Eye of the needle. Lilies of the Field. Lazarus wanting to take a drop of water to Dives in hell. "That night he died". Let the dead bury their dead. All that kind of thing.

    Still, to be fair, you are fervent enough about the bits of the Bible you choose to believe in.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited January 2024

    Further to Ian's point, Eek, Richard Rolls testified to the Inquiry that when he told his Fujitsu Manager that they needed to recode from scratch, the manager agreed but lamented 'It ain't gonna happen'.
    I'm glad I've always been in the position to be able to walk away there and then (both because I have the money and a skillset / reputation) and not need to continue working - it's a flexibility a lot of people don't have which a lot of management pray upon..
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    To be fair to Rishi, he was still at school for most of the 1990's.
    Back in the days when he was wearing short trousers ….. oh wait!
  • Chris said:

    Not that you follow the Bible fervently - or in the least respect - given that you don't give away all your money and "take no thought for the morrow". Eye of the needle. Lilies. "That night he died". Let the dead bury their dead. All that kind of thing.

    Still, to be fair, you are fervent enough about the bits of the Bible you choose to believe in.
    The bits he chooses to believe in typically being those bits that Christ did not say.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727

    I've read quite a lot of literature written as late as the 1960s referring to 'the gay 90s' of the 19th century, which was still within living memory for many.
    I follow a number of academics on Twitter/X and one was moaning recently that his students keep thinking that the 18th Century refers to the 1800s and the 19th C to the 1900s, etc. I seem to recall learning about centuries at primary school.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920

    The bits he chooses to believe in typically being those bits that Christ did not say.
    Certainly Jesus wasn't as exercised about "homosexual marriage" as our resident donkey.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,719
    WSJ goes on the record that Elon Musk does too many illegal drugs and it causes problems for his work: https://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-illegal-drugs-e826a9e1
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    SandraMc said:

    I follow a number of academics on Twitter/X and one was moaning recently that his students keep thinking that the 18th Century refers to the 1800s and the 19th C to the 1900s, etc. I seem to recall learning about centuries at primary school.
    That should be easily fixed. Ask them what century we are in - and then correct them. And do it every week until they grasp it.

    Now I know it doesn't make much sense but how else do you cope when numbers start at 1 and you can't have such a thing as the 0 century..
  • eek said:

    I'm glad I've always been in the position to be able to walk away there and then and not need to continue working - it's a flexibility a lot of people don't have which a lot of management pray upon..
    Rolls did so, but not immediately. (Young family and all that, so one sympathises.)
  • eek said:

    That should be easily fixed. Ask them what century we are in - and then correct them. And do it every week until they grasp it.

    Now I know it doesn't make much sense but how else do you cope when numbers start at 1 and you can't have such a thing as the 0 century..
    Though despite having spent most of my life now in the 21st century, the idea of "20th century" still feels like the present and the idea of the "21st century" still feels futuristic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822

    WSJ goes on the record that Elon Musk does too many illegal drugs and it causes problems for his work: https://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-illegal-drugs-e826a9e1

    lol

    He’s literally the richest man in the world, or thereabouts. And probably the most influential private citizen on the planet

    I think the phrase is “I’ll have what he’s having”
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    No, quite. But, it is really easy to squint your eyes and apply the above to pretty much any government. 1) If you loath Blair or Johnson, its easy to attach a cult of personality to them and their followers.. There was certainly a cult of personality to Thatcher. 2) Could easily apply to the USA more than any on the planet, but not specifically racial. You join us you become us ethos. It's certainly the SNP claims of civic nationalism. But it can be argued if you dont think there is something specifically good about your own place/tribe, is suspicious and unusual. 3) The best way to create contempt for intellectualism is to put those with phds regularly in the news. Never before has public facing science and intellectualism shown itself to be an empty vessel. The rot began with the reaction to Brexit here, and Trump in the USA and chef kissed with Covid responses and reactions to BLM.
    1 and 2 applied to Sturgeon’s SNP. 3 definitely didn’t.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    Snow in the South East tomorrow night.


  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited January 2024

    Rolls did so, but not immediately. (Young family and all that, so one sympathises.)
    As I said in the update I have the advantage that I can (don't really need the cash and a reputation / skillset that gets me work easily).

    If you need to work and give say 3 months notice it's going to take you 6 months minimum to escape by the time you've got your CV written and done all the interviews to escape but as you say people don't see things that way and may use the fact they didn't leave instantly as complacency.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Chris said:

    The answer is very simple in principle, though admittedly not entirely simple in execution.

    We just need to adopt sortition. Place the political decision-making process in the hands of randomly selected representatives of the electorate. Do away with professional politicians. If current politicians want to pursue a similar career to their present one, let them be advocates of one course or another, but make it crystal clear to them that they _are_ going to be advocates and not decision-makers. Their job would be to present a sufficiently cogent case for any particular course of action, that it would be convincing to the representatives of the people, who would benefit from the same advice from the civil service that is currently provided to professional politicians.

    I think now that the machines will take over before there is time for this to happen, but if not - God willing - it will happen sooner or later.
    The Swiss system of referenda would allow us to vote on individual policies, not the agglomeration that is a manifesto.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    I’m watching this new ITV drama “Mr Bates and the Post Office”, it’s an incredible story - like some weird Watergate but with post offices

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920

    The Swiss system of referenda would allow us to vote on individual policies, not the agglomeration that is a manifesto.
    That's not really the same thing, though, and I doubt it would be an improvement. Let's do away with professional politicians altogether.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,719

    The Swiss system of referenda would allow us to vote on individual policies, not the agglomeration that is a manifesto.
    But you can get the problem they’ve had in California where people vote for higher spending and lower taxes. Individual policies often impact on other policies.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    Leon said:

    lol

    He’s literally the richest man in the world, or thereabouts. And probably the most influential private citizen on the planet

    I think the phrase is “I’ll have what he’s having”
    No doubt a lot of people would like to be just like Elon Musk and to behave just like him.
  • Where is Sunil to point out Azumas don't travel through Luton?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    darkage said:

    One of the absurdities of the post office prosecutions were that people were sent to jail for minor fraud and theft. There is a real thirst for vengeance amongst the English which we are seeing again with the desire for 'jail time' for those in the Post Office that initiated the prosecutions. Other than keeping the most dangerous offenders away from the rest of society jail is an enormous waste of money, punishment and rehabilitation is better done outside of custody. If the rest of Europe can accept this why can't the English?

    Yes, although if someone actually did steal £36,000 in cash from their employer, that is pretty serious stuff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    Leon said:

    I was about to say “I feel a bit sorry for Sunak” but then I realised I absolutely don’t

    His life has been one piece of amazing good fortune after another, resulting in him falling into the top job that he wasn’t really ready for. And unlike the calamities self-inflicted by his four predecessors, he’ll probably end up being seen quite sympathetically as the guy who got the impossible gig. And we know in advance that he’ll end up in the US being paid $squillions for his expertise in whatever it was.

    So it’s hard to feel sorry for him, for sure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    Chris said:

    No doubt a lot of people would like to be just like Elon Musk and to behave just like him.
    I don't particularly aspire to be a Bond Villain.

    Get Elon a white Persian and a black leather swivel chair and he fits the person spec to a T.
  • PoulterPoulter Posts: 62
    SandraMc said:

    I follow a number of academics on Twitter/X and one was moaning recently that his students keep thinking that the 18th Century refers to the 1800s and the 19th C to the 1900s, etc.
    They'll probably ban "19th century" etc. from the National Curriculum soon, using "1800s" instead.

    Already, clocks in many exam rooms are digital because many pupils don't know how to tell the time when there's an hour hand and a minute hand.

    Ray Kurzweil says smartphones are making everyone cleverer. I wonder whether he's been on the shrooms too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120

    No amount of money can compensate the suffering that some went through and will always endure, but one thing that will definitely help is if the truth comes out fully, and without further delay.

    One thing the Government could and should do, immediately, and without cost to the the taxpayer, is tell the current Board of the Post Office to stop delaying proceedings and give the maximum and most urgent assistance to the Inquiry in its work.

    Anyone who has been watching the Inquiry will know that thus far the PO has done everything in its power to obstruct the unearthing of the whole truth.
    Even its Chair expects the whole of 2024 to be taken up with evidence, and that’s assuming things run to plan. And he’s not going to write it up in one overnight essay crisis, is he?

    A statutory enquiry seems a good thing to have, but they always take so long that the original issue is almost forgotten by the time they finish.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, although if someone actually did steal £36,000 in cash from their employer, that is pretty serious stuff.
    One thought that occurred while out with my pooch is to wonder if Horizon make other errors, in the Sub-posties favour?

    We know that mysterious surpluses turned up centrally and were booked as profit.

    If mysterious erroneous credits did occur at SPO level, what happened? Did the PO claim them, thereby acknowledging that Horizon did make errors? Or were all the errors only in one direction?
  • @IanB2 -your post of 8.57 refers.

    Yes, I know about not getting the credit in life for taking the tough decision. Are you a parent too. ;)

    It seems to me that Vennells and associates missed their opportunity when Second Sight began to report its adverse findings about the Horizon system. They could and should have fronted up then, admitted their mistake and prevented further miscarriages of justice as a result. Instead they tried to brazen it out. Yes, I suppose it was a 'logical' response in the sense that there was a rationale behind it, but it was a poor one, as well as being immoral.

    After that, it seems they believed they had little option but to keep on trying to brazen it out, hoping that if they upped the stakes high enough, the other side would fold. As a former professional gambler I can only shake my head at that. You never bet the house on anything.

    Vennells was awarded the CBE in 2019, and given positions that year on the Board of the Imperial College Health Trust and in the Cabinet Office. One can only imagine that her backers thought the 'brazen-in-out' strategy was working. As the inadequacies of Horizon were widely acknowledged by then and the truth was slowly and painfully becoming apparent, you have to wonder about the people who approved these honours.
    Lazy? Stupid? Brass-necked? Incompetent? Shameless? You decide.

    Anyway, much as I have enjoyed your duet with MsC, I am glad that a much larger chorus can now be heard singing about this subject. It deserves all the attention it is getting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,719
    darkage said:

    Have you considered Laurence Fox and the 'reclaim' party? I would in all seriousness vote for them because I think their arguments should form part of the mainstream political discourse and not ridiculed/cancelled as they are at present. The more people attack the 'far right' the more I am minded to vote for them as an alternative to the failing model of business as usual.
    The ones who accepted Andrew Bridgen, the vaccine conspiracy theorist? Even if business as usual isn’t working, I’m pretty confident that believing a pack of lies about COVID vaccines being like the Holocaust is not the way forward.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    Poulter said:

    They'll probably ban "19th century" etc. from the National Curriculum soon, using "1800s" instead.

    Already, clocks in many exam rooms are digital because many pupils don't know how to tell the time when there's an hour hand and a minute hand.

    Ray Kurzweil says smartphones are making everyone cleverer. I wonder whether he's been on the shrooms too.
    They seem to make children more knowledgeable on some very niche trivia topics.

    My son’s TikTok stream seemingly showers him endlessly with global geopolitics and economics facts, because he has been amassing pub quiz levels of knowledge that he’s definitely not getting at home or at school.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    IanB2 said:

    Even its Chair expects the whole of 2024 to be taken up with evidence, and that’s assuming things run to plan. And he’s not going to write it up in one overnight essay crisis, is he?

    A statutory enquiry seems a good thing to have, but they always take so long that the original issue is almost forgotten by the time they finish.
    Got to say I think we already know everything that's going to come out of this.

    1) we need to change the law so computer evidence is not accepted with care and attention - the blanket rule we used for speed cameras isn't fit for purpose.

    2) because the evidence is so suspect just pardon and compensate everyone charged and refund any money claimed.

    3) Post Office Management should be subjected to a Putin style one to one review and replaced on mass.

    4) Post office shouldn't have right to prosecute people - and one with such authority should be overseen by the CPS.

    5) I'm sure Cyclefree could come up with the other recommendations without much effort...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited January 2024

    @IanB2 -your post of 8.57 refers.

    Yes, I know about not getting the credit in life for taking the tough decision. Are you a parent too. ;)

    It seems to me that Vennells and associates missed their opportunity when Second Sight began to report its adverse findings about the Horizon system. They could and should have fronted up then, admitted their mistake and prevented further miscarriages of justice as a result. Instead they tried to brazen it out. Yes, I suppose it was a 'logical' response in the sense that there was a rationale behind it, but it was a poor one, as well as being immoral.

    After that, it seems they believed they had little option but to keep on trying to brazen it out, hoping that if they upped the stakes high enough, the other side would fold. As a former professional gambler I can only shake my head at that. You never bet the house on anything.

    Vennells was awarded the CBE in 2019, and given positions that year on the Board of the Imperial College Health Trust and in the Cabinet Office. One can only imagine that her backers thought the 'brazen-in-out' strategy was working. As the inadequacies of Horizon were widely acknowledged by then and the truth was slowly and painfully becoming apparent, you have to wonder about the people who approved these honours.
    Lazy? Stupid? Brass-necked? Incompetent? Shameless? You decide.

    Anyway, much as I have enjoyed your duet with MsC, I am glad that a much larger chorus can now be heard singing about this subject. It deserves all the attention it is getting.

    Ignore the rationale behind it - it was immoral and at the time Vennells was a CoE priest.

    Now I used to attend the CoE but having met too many priests that followed Vennell's method of take the easy option rather than the morally correct 1 I no longer have any dealings with them or attend church.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,838
    ...
    algarkirk said:

    SFAICS this became absolutely acute at the point where the 1992 election was lost by Labour partly on account of saying something which allowed the 'Labour' Tax Bombshell' campaign. We have never recovered. This is 32 years ago.

    No party aiming at government (there are only 2) is going to risk this, so we are stuck with the ludicrous strangulation of real discussion about debt, tax, spend, borrow at election time.

    I can see only two ways out, neither of which are likely. A voter revolt, or a cross party truce to agree a common formula like 'Both Tory and Labour will tax at the level which will meet our spending commitments. Taxes can go up as well as down. Taxes are high because state managed expenditure is nearly 50% of GDP. Get over it'.
    Or maybe, just maybe, expenditure shouldn't be 50% of GDP?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    eek said:

    Ignore the rationale behind it - it was immoral and at the time Vennells was a CoE priest.

    Now I used to attend the CoE but having met too many priests that followed Vennell's method of take the easy option rather than the morally correct 1 I no longer have any dealings with them or attend church.
    Vennells is no longer a priest either, anyway the vast majority of C of E priests are actually decent people doing the best for their Parish and community
  • @Leon

    Your name check is noted with thanks.

    Don't be harsh on yourself. It's easy to understand why people would find Post Offices, ancient emails, unglamourous people in mundane posts and the like very boring. This explains to a large extent why this scandal was the slowest of slow burners. Do look at the show though. I don't expect it to knock your socks off, but I do think it does convey the human suffering well, even if it necessarily has to gloss over the finer details.

    I look forward to reading your review. Much as I enjoy taking the piss out of you from time to time, I do appreciate your talents as a critic.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    HYUFD said:

    Vennells is no longer a priest either, anyway the vast majority of C of E priests are actually decent people doing the best for their Parish and community
    I'm pretty sure she is still a priest but on gardening leave. As she is non-stipendiary, she's not getting any money from the CoE (not that she needs it). I gather from the Rev. Richard Coles, who has been backing the campaign to get justice for the post office staff, the CoE is waiting for the inquiry to report before making the final decision on her future.
  • @eek

    'Got to say I think we already know everything that's going to come out of this.'

    Not sure about that. The Inquiry has just taken possession of 80 tapes of covertly recorded conversations. God knows what's on them, but I suspect they are not going to be helpful to the PO.

    As for your point three, I guess the venue you have in mind would be a very high building, with many windows?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557
    SandraMc said:

    I'm pretty sure she is still a priest but on gardening leave. As she is non-stipendiary, she's not getting any money from the CoE (not that she needs it). I gather from the Rev. Richard Coles, who has been backing the campaign to get justice for the post office staff, the CoE is waiting for the inquiry to report before making the final decision on her future.
    My understanding is also that she is suspended (so not technically gardening leave) but hasn't been unfrocked. I'm not quite sure whether her suspension was voluntary or not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557
    edited January 2024

    @eek

    'Got to say I think we already know everything that's going to come out of this.'

    Not sure about that. The Inquiry has just taken possession of 80 tapes of covertly recorded conversations. God knows what's on them, but I suspect they are not going to be helpful to the PO.

    As for your point three, I guess the venue you have in mind would be a very high building, with many windows?

    The other way of looking at it is, we already know enough to be pretty sure the Post Office (and several persons therein, although individual blame is yet to be assigned) is guilty of fraud, false accounting, extortion, perverting the course of justice and perjury.

    Unless we find that they actually broke into Post Offices to nick cash in the dead of night, or tried to poison Mr Bates and his associates, or threatened to beat up postmasters refusing to pay the funds they didn't owe, the likely criminal charge is not going to change much now. we may find out we've done more of these things of course but that won't change the conclusion or, should charges ever be brought, the punishment.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    I’m watching this new ITV drama “Mr Bates and the Post Office”, it’s an incredible story - like some weird Watergate but with post offices

    There actually is a post office in the Watergate building.

    https://tools.usps.com/find-location.htm?location=1386593
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    ED DAVEY IS AN ABSOLUTE ****
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Foxy said:

    One thought that occurred while out with my pooch is to wonder if Horizon make other errors, in the Sub-posties favour?

    We know that mysterious surpluses turned up centrally and were booked as profit.

    If mysterious erroneous credits did occur at SPO level, what happened? Did the PO claim them, thereby acknowledging that Horizon did make errors? Or were all the errors only in one direction?
    All errors that resulted in prosecutions were in one direction.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    ydoethur said:

    The other way of looking at it is, we already know enough to be pretty sure the Post Office (and several persons therein, although individual blame is yet to be assigned) is guilty of fraud, false accounting, extortion, perverting the course of justice and perjury.

    Unless we find that they actually broke into Post Offices to nick cash in the dead of night, or tried to poison Mr Bates and his associates, or threatened to beat up postmasters refusing to pay the funds they didn't owe, the likely criminal charge is not going to change much now. we may find out we've done more of these things of course but that won't change the conclusion or, should charges ever be brought, the punishment.
    That was really my point here - we know we have a system that was unfit for purpose people were jailed falsely because of that unfitness and various people continued to prosecute people and covered it up.

    A lot of that can be fixed tomorrow we don't need the rest of the tribunal to do that. I suspect all those tapes will do is add a lot more names into the going to jail for extortion, perverting the course of justice and perjury lists.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Leon said:

    ED DAVEY IS AN ABSOLUTE ****

    Unless we are missing something in the letters we've seen he is just guilty of not pressing things further and accepting the first answer - hardly surprising when he probably had a million other things to got on with.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited January 2024
    HYUFD said:

    Vennells is no longer a priest either, anyway the vast majority of C of E priests are actually decent people doing the best for their Parish and community
    Yet they are willing to sit in Deanery synod or employ people who really rank as some of the very worst 2 face people I've met in my life.

    And I often have to deal with people willing to sell tax avoidance schemes to people who just want £25 extra in their pay packet at the end of the week (they are total scam) but I can name a number of CoE priests who are way worse when it comes to their dealings with other people.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,300
    edited January 2024
    Good afternoon everybody
    Thank you all for your responses. They deserve a longer response than this but my initial response is: My original intent was to make a grand sweeping series of ideas of our time, and initial work did take place on three of these: Matthew Goodwin on Values, Voice and Virtue, Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and Mary Harrington on Transhumanism. But it became apparent that I couldn't complete them in a realistic time and if you can't do it in a realistic time you can't do it at all. So my articles on for example Yanis Varoufakis on Technofeudalism will not now appear, although the first three may in truncated form.

    This article, first in a looser openended series, is a response to that. Unlike previous articles which were written backstage ("in the toilets" as @Moonrabbit puts it) and perfected before submission, this was submitted as an early draft and unsourced. Illustrations, diagrams and points from your comments will be added and this expanded version presented to you backstage at a later date.

    (Some of you will be mouthing "agile programming" at this point. :) )

    Once again, thank you: your contributions will make the work much better and has hopefully engaged your interest. Thanks again to @TSE and @rcs1000 for publishing it.


  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    Leon said:

    ED DAVEY IS AN ABSOLUTE ****

    Just when Lib Dems thought it was safe to forget The Coalition ...

    Who would have thought that a 20-month stint as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Employment Relations and Postal Affairs could come back to destroy your career a decade later?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    edited January 2024
    eek said:

    Unless we are missing something in the letters we've seen he is just guilty of not pressing things further and accepting the first answer - hardly surprising when he probably had a million other things to got on with.
    No, I think this might be career ending for him

    “In 2017 Alan Bates led a group litigation against the Post Office

    It responded by hiring lawyers from Herbert Smith Freehills to fight its corner

    Ed Davey agreed to be taken on by Herbert Smith Freehills as a consultant on political issues & policy analysis, paid £833 per hour”

    https://x.com/flaminhaystacks/status/1743733279444873578?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • eek said:

    That was really my point here - we know we have a system that was unfit for purpose people were jailed falsely because of that unfitness and various people continued to prosecute people and covered it up.

    A lot of that can be fixed tomorrow we don't need the rest of the tribunal to do that. I suspect all those tapes will do is add a lot more names into the going to jail for extortion, perverting the course of justice and perjury lists.
    What if those tapes reveal however that the PO Board was acting on the express instructions of the Government?

    That changes things a bit, no?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    All errors that resulted in prosecutions were in one direction.
    That occurred to me, too.
    There are also three types of Post Offices. Crown Offices, owned and run by the Post Office itself, sub Post Offices run by companies, (eg WHSmith) and the Alan Bates etc type.
    I’ve asked before and few seem to know; did they all use the same system?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739

    What if those tapes reveal however that the PO Board was acting on the express instructions of the Government?

    That changes things a bit, no?
    Not really - unless they can demonstrate the Government was completely aware of the facts.

    Claiming you acted on behalf of the Government because your lied to the Government about the situation doesn't really give you a get out clause does it?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    eek said:

    Unless we are missing something in the letters we've seen he is just guilty of not pressing things further and accepting the first answer - hardly surprising when he probably had a million other things to got on with.
    Interesting interview with Mr Bates here on Ed Davey, via a link in the text:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/the-post-office-horizon-scandal

  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Leon said:

    No, I think this might be career ending for him

    “In 2017 Alan Bates led a group litigation against the Post Office

    It responded by hiring lawyers from Herbert Smith Freehills to fight its corner

    Ed Davey agreed to be taken on by Herbert Smith Freehills as a consultant on political issues & policy analysis, paid £833 per hour”

    https://x.com/flaminhaystacks/status/1743733279444873578?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    see TSE but Ed Davey was working in a very different part of the Herbert Smith Freehills.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557

    What if those tapes reveal however that the PO Board was acting on the express instructions of the Government?

    That changes things a bit, no?
    It might, depending on which government it was. That's the catch - all three major parties have unclean hands on this. There have even been mutterings (probably wrong, but you never know) the SNP knew and didn't want to be told.
  • Talking of clergy;


    So the three shortlisted for this afternoon’s Wellingborough prospective parliamentary candidate selection are:

    - Helen Harrison
    - Rev Dr Beatrice Brandon
    - Tom Mercer

    Cllr Helen Harrison is the live-in girlfriend of disgraced Tory MP Peter Bone and is, it’s safe to say, a controversial choice

    She’s the only local person shortlisted and will be very much seen as the continuity candidate.

    She sits on North Northamptonshire Council’s executive.

    Rev Beatrice Brandon is attached to the Church of England and describes herself as adviser and consultant for the hearing ministry and the ministry and deliverance.

    I’ll be honest, I don’t know what that means


    https://twitter.com/Katie_Cronin/status/1743989503960764779
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    Leon said:

    No, I think this might be career ending for him

    “In 2017 Alan Bates led a group litigation against the Post Office

    It responded by hiring lawyers from Herbert Smith Freehills to fight its corner

    Ed Davey agreed to be taken on by Herbert Smith Freehills as a consultant on political issues & policy analysis, paid £833 per hour”

    https://x.com/flaminhaystacks/status/1743733279444873578?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    No, he wasn't involved in any work on the Post Office case. He was specifically advising on energy and climate change. Its in the register of MPs interests.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    viewcode said:

    Good afternoon everybody
    Thank you all for your responses. They deserve a longer response than this but my initial response is:

    My original intent was to make a grand sweeping series of ideas of our time, and initial work did take place on three of these: Matthew Goodwin on Values, Voice and Virtue, Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and Mary Harrington on Transhumanism. But it became apparent that I couldn't complete them in a realistic time and if you can't do it in a realistic time you can't do them. So my articles on for example Yanis Varoufakis on Technofeudalism will not now appear, although the first three may in truncated form.

    This article, first in a looser openended series, is a response to that. Unlike previous articles which were written backstage ("in the toilets" as @Moonrabbit puts it) and perfected before submission, this was submitted as an early draft and unsourced. Illustrations, diagrams and points from your comments will be added and this expanded version presented to you backstage at a later date.

    (Some of you will be mouthing "agile programming" at this point. :) )

    Once again, thank you: your contributions will make the work much better and has hopefully engaged your interest. Thanks again to @TSE and @rcs1000 for publishing it.


    Thank you. It was an interesting read, and worth waiting for.

    Maybe things aren’t so complicated in real life. Fascism just boils down to boots if you explain things the MoonRabbit way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    Foxy said:

    No, he wasn't involved in any work on the Post Office case. He was specifically advising on energy and climate change. Its in the register of MPs interests.
    Doesn’t look good tho; does it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Foxy said:

    Interesting interview with Mr Bates here on Ed Davey, via a link in the text:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/the-post-office-horizon-scandal

    Rather carefully clipped copy of the letter from Davey....
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    edited January 2024

    Talking of clergy;


    So the three shortlisted for this afternoon’s Wellingborough prospective parliamentary candidate selection are:

    - Helen Harrison
    - Rev Dr Beatrice Brandon
    - Tom Mercer

    Cllr Helen Harrison is the live-in girlfriend of disgraced Tory MP Peter Bone and is, it’s safe to say, a controversial choice

    She’s the only local person shortlisted and will be very much seen as the continuity candidate.

    She sits on North Northamptonshire Council’s executive.

    Rev Beatrice Brandon is attached to the Church of England and describes herself as adviser and consultant for the hearing ministry and the ministry and deliverance.

    I’ll be honest, I don’t know what that means


    https://twitter.com/Katie_Cronin/status/1743989503960764779

    From
    https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Deliverance_ministry
    In Christianity, deliverance ministry refers to groups that perform practices to cleanse people of demons and evil spirits.

    So basically another Fruit Loop..

    leaves Tom Mercer of which we know nothing - although I can find a Corporate M&A lawyer of that name.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324
    eek said:

    see TSE but Ed Davey was working in a very different part of the Herbert Smith Freehills.
    I don't think it will matter. The impact of this TV show is such that anybody who was anywhere near this scandal is fucked.

    I didn't watch it because I can't sit through 4 hours of schmaltzy pap about lawyers and IT wankers but Mrs DA watched it, was livid and said she's never going in a Post Office again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    HYUFD said:

    Well yes, in the sense if God exists even if you are the only believer who follows the Bible fervently left on earth you are also the only one left certain to go to heaven
    That sounds like fun. Eternity, on your own.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2024
    ydoethur said:

    It might, depending on which government it was. That's the catch - all three major parties have unclean hands on this. There have even been mutterings (probably wrong, but you never know) the SNP knew and didn't want to be told.
    Latter probably trying to wipe shitty hands on other folk. Post office per se is not a devolved matter. And as for criminal prosecutions, didn't we discuss this before? The PO can't bring private prosecutions in Scotland, unlike in E&W, IIRC. So it has to rely on the proper arm of state, and the Scottish procurators-fiscal had a more robust attitude to the PO atttitude to machine evidence. We talked aboiut this a month or two back but I don't recall the details; however the upshot was IIRC that the PO was told to bugger off with this crap stuff.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    edited January 2024

    All errors that resulted in prosecutions were in one direction.
    Well yes, but that was not my question.

    Did Horizon errors occur creating surpluses? If so the PO knew the system was faulty.

    @OldKingCole makes a good point about the crown and company Sub Post Office's too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think it will matter. The impact of this TV show is such that anybody who was anywhere near this scandal is fucked.

    I didn't watch it because I can't sit through 4 hours of schmaltzy pap about lawyers and IT wankers but Mrs DA watched it, was livid and said she's never going in a Post Office again.
    Yep
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    IanB2 said:

    That sounds like fun. Eternity, on your own.
    I would rather spend eternity on my own than with avowed secular atheists
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,120
    edited January 2024
    Foxy said:

    One thought that occurred while out with my pooch is to wonder if Horizon make other errors, in the Sub-posties favour?

    We know that mysterious surpluses turned up centrally and were booked as profit.

    If mysterious erroneous credits did occur at SPO level, what happened? Did the PO claim them, thereby acknowledging that Horizon did make errors? Or were all the errors only in one direction?
    Yes, it did. The conscientious ones (which is most of them) put the money aside, expecting it to be corrected further down the road.

    But - although I’m not an expert on the detail - most Post Offices had more cash going out of them than into them, as the people coming in to collect their pensions or cash their giros outweighed purchases of stamps and the like. So if we just simplify and imagine that the problem was the central server ‘missing’ transactions that occurred out in the branch, due to an instantaneous power or connectivity failures, then the odds are that the majority of missed transactions would be cash withdrawals - hence at the end of the day more errors would be shortfalls than excesses.

    I do hope I’m not running ahead of the evidence in pinning so much on the few references to power issues being at the heart of this - but that’s my intuition based on the evidence so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    SandraMc said:

    I'm pretty sure she is still a priest but on gardening leave. As she is non-stipendiary, she's not getting any money from the CoE (not that she needs it). I gather from the Rev. Richard Coles, who has been backing the campaign to get justice for the post office staff, the CoE is waiting for the inquiry to report before making the final decision on her future.
    As it should
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    eek said:

    see TSE but Ed Davey was working in a very different part of the Herbert Smith Freehills.
    It will be a sad day when former ministers are not allowed to accept small payments such as £275m because of pettifogging concerns about conflicts of interest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    Leon said:

    Doesn’t look good tho; does it?
    Of course not, but of the many politicians involved over the decades Davey is one of the very few to express regret, and to acknowledge that the Post Office had misled him.
  • Foxy said:

    Well yes, but that was not my question.

    Did Horizon errors occur creating surpluses? If so the PO knew the system was faulty.

    @OldKingCole makes a good point about the crown and company Sub Post Office's too.
    Yes, I bleive it did, Foxy, but the SPMs didn't get to keep the 'overs', because in real terms they didn't actually exist. They were just book entries (wrong ones, of course.)

    As far as I am aware, the PO has never returned any of the money it trousered from the innocent SPMs. I think this is the starting point for the Met's fraud inquiries.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,270
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, it did. The conscientious ones (which is most of them) put the money aside, expecting it to be corrected further down the road.
    In which case that is further evidence that the PO knew Horizon was not infallible.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    edited January 2024
    Did Ed Davey and the Post Office employees believe:

    1) that the money was missing and that theft was more plausible than the IT failure that they were assured by Fujitsu was foolproof

    or

    2) the postmasters were innocent but should be persecuted and prosecuted anyway

    The first, surely?

    I think we are in danger of another witchhunt here, instead of addressing - you know - little things like how the PO can mount a prosecution separate from the usual checks and balances, is the money actually missing and did someone at Fujitsu steal it, and how are we the taxpayers going to get our money back from Fujitsu to compensate for their supply of a faulty product?

    Instead we want to get Vennells to give her gong back.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think it will matter. The impact of this TV show is such that anybody who was anywhere near this scandal is fucked.

    I didn't watch it because I can't sit through 4 hours of schmaltzy pap about lawyers and IT wankers but Mrs DA watched it, was livid and said she's never going in a Post Office again.
    Not the same as the Royal Mail or Parcelforce, mind.

    And most post offices are ordinary corner shops and the like anyway. The head of the Subbies Union was complaining only the other day that any boycott would damage them.

    https://www.peeblesshirenews.com/news/24030273.nfsp-mr-bates-vs-post-office-boycott-cause-harm/

    TBF he has been campaigniong for keeping things like DVLA contracts available through post offices:

    https://www.peeblesshirenews.com/news/24007022.success-national-campaign-led-west-linton-postmaster/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    HYUFD said:

    I would rather spend eternity on my own than with avowed secular atheists
    I'm sure. It would hardly be pleasant for you to have your rank hypocrisy pointed out eternally.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    eek said:

    From
    https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Deliverance_ministry
    In Christianity, deliverance ministry refers to groups that perform practices to cleanse people of demons and evil spirits.

    So basically another Fruit Loop..

    leaves Tom Mercer of which we know nothing - although I can find a Corporate M&A lawyer of that name.
    Seems Tom is local, known and

    https://twitter.com/OddManOut5/status/1744004805184434301

    @WellingboroughC
    have lost their marbles as well as Bone's trousers with this list. Sheer lunacy to have Bone's mistress as a possible candidate. As for Mercer he, his wife & local Tory cronies spent several years hiding the complaint against Bone. No shame, no standards.

    Basically it seems the sanity Tory plan would be to have Helen as candidate as it would stop Peter Bone standing as an independent candidate.

    Then she can lose badly and be binned before the general election...

    Downside losing badly would mean no early general election so Labour basically need to do a token campaign and focus on the other election taking place that day...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557
    edited January 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Latter probably trying to wipe shitty hands on other folk. Post office per se is not a devolved matter. And as for criminal prosecutions, didn't we discuss this before? The PO can't bring private prosecutions in Scotland, unlike in E&W, IIRC. So it has to rely on the proper arm of state, and the Scottish procurators-fiscal had a more robust attitude to the PO atttitude to machine evidence. We talked aboiut this a month or two back but I don't recall the details; however the upshot was IIRC that the PO was told to bugger off with this crap stuff.
    There were prosecutions in Scotland as well, but not as many and I can only find one prison sentence.

    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/film-and-tv/mr-bates-vs-the-post-office-itv-scottish-postmasters-4465230

    There will undoubtedly have been more issues with Scottish postmasters forced to pay money they didn't owe though.
  • Carnyx said:

    Latter probably trying to wipe shitty hands on other folk. Post office per se is not a devolved matter. And as for criminal prosecutions, didn't we discuss this before? The PO can't bring private prosecutions in Scotland, unlike in E&W, IIRC. So it has to rely on the proper arm of state, and the Scottish procurators-fiscal had a more robust attitude to the PO atttitude to machine evidence. We talked aboiut this a month or two back but I don't recall the details; however the upshot was IIRC that the PO was told to bugger off with this crap stuff.
    Yes, there were very few Scottish cases. Well done, Scots.
  • HYUFD said:

    I would rather spend eternity on my own than with avowed secular atheists
    Just think though - an eternity of nudging them sany saying "I was right, though, wasn't I?"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    ydoethur said:

    There were prosecutions in Scotland as well, but not as many.

    https://www.scotsman.com/arts-and-culture/film-and-tv/mr-bates-vs-the-post-office-itv-scottish-postmasters-4465230

    There will undoubtedly have been more issues with Scottish postmasters forced to pay money they didn't owe though.
    Excellent point - quite so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,325
    ...

    All errors that resulted in prosecutions were in one direction.
    Indeed. And who was the DPP during the scandal?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    ...

    Indeed. And who was the DPP during the scandal?
    Not relevant. PO did its own prosecutions in E&W, remember.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Is the ITV show actually any good?

    I started to watch it but nodded off.

    The podcast of the scandal was riveting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,757

    @IanB2 -your post of 8.57 refers.

    Yes, I know about not getting the credit in life for taking the tough decision. Are you a parent too. ;)

    It seems to me that Vennells and associates missed their opportunity when Second Sight began to report its adverse findings about the Horizon system. They could and should have fronted up then, admitted their mistake and prevented further miscarriages of justice as a result. Instead they tried to brazen it out. Yes, I suppose it was a 'logical' response in the sense that there was a rationale behind it, but it was a poor one, as well as being immoral.

    After that, it seems they believed they had little option but to keep on trying to brazen it out, hoping that if they upped the stakes high enough, the other side would fold. As a former professional gambler I can only shake my head at that. You never bet the house on anything.

    It wasn't just immoral, though, was it ?
    To know that your organisation had sent innocent people to jail, to cover that up, and to continue doing so, goes way beyond 'immoral'.

    There should, and must be widespread legal consequences for those who took executive decisions, having such knowledge - as as Cyclefree et al have noted, that's a lot more people than Vennells.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yes, there were very few Scottish cases. Well done, Scots.
    Interesting to see that the cases in the linky in Ydoethur's comment were all sheriff court cases - pretty low level (though utter shite for the poor folk involved). Might be relevant.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Pensioners do not pay national insurance, and pension income is taxed as income, so it is the same.
    THE IDIOTS ON HERE THINK PENSIONERS DON'T PAY TAX
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,557

    ...

    Indeed. And who was the DPP during the scandal?
    David Calvert-Smith, Ken Macdonald, and Alison Saunders.

    Plus some other random nonentity whose name eludes me.

    Although of course it wasn't up to the DPP. I think I'm right in saying the CPS can adopt private prosecutions by government agencies, but not prevent them?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, it did. The conscientious ones (which is most of them) put the money aside, expecting it to be corrected further down the road.

    But - although I’m not an expert on the detail - most Post Offices had more cash going out of them than into them, as the people coming in to collect their pensions or cash their giros outweighed purchases of stamps and the like. So if we just simplify and imagine that the problem was the central server ‘missing’ transactions that occurred out in the branch, due to an instantaneous power or connectivity failures, then the odds are that the majority of missed transactions would be cash withdrawals - hence at the end of the day more errors would be shortfalls than excesses.

    I do hope I’m not running ahead of the evidence in pinning so much on the few references to power issues being at the heart of this - but that’s my intuition based on the evidence so far.
    Interesting comments (also passim) - and caveat noted!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,822
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think it will matter. The impact of this TV show is such that anybody who was anywhere near this scandal is fucked.

    I didn't watch it because I can't sit through 4 hours of schmaltzy pap about lawyers and IT wankers but Mrs DA watched it, was livid and said she's never going in a Post Office again.
    Yep
    Stocky said:

    Is the ITV show actually any good?

    I started to watch it but nodded off.

    The podcast of the scandal was riveting.

    Yes. Its really really well done

    Ok the material is good - powerful versus weak, huge corporation versus tiny folk, lovely cake making Sikh housewives smashed in the face with hammers by evil Vince cable, but it’s superbly manipulative

    As a politician you don’t want to be anywhere near the wrong side of this story. Anyone who is within fall out range is damaged. Anyone in the blast zone is finished
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    ydoethur said:

    David Calvert-Smith, Ken Macdonald, and Alison Saunders.

    Plus some other random nonentity whose name eludes me.

    Although of course it wasn't up to the DPP. I think I'm right in saying the CPS can adopt private prosecutions by government agencies, but not prevent them?
    Though I'm sure the Tories will enjoy smearing Messrs Davey and Starmer as much as they can.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,757
    edited January 2024
    ydoethur said:

    The other way of looking at it is, we already know enough to be pretty sure the Post Office (and several persons therein, although individual blame is yet to be assigned) is guilty of fraud, false accounting, extortion, perverting the course of justice and perjury.

    Unless we find that they actually broke into Post Offices to nick cash in the dead of night, or tried to poison Mr Bates and his associates, or threatened to beat up postmasters refusing to pay the funds they didn't owe, the likely criminal charge is not going to change much now. we may find out we've done more of these things of course but that won't change the conclusion or, should charges ever be brought, the punishment.
    Some those are easier to prove beyond reasonable doubt than are others.
    We know enough to be pretty sure isn't quite the same thing as we can prove in court to a criminal standard.
    More evidence is likely to make that task easier, especially as our justice system is such a mess.

    Incidentally, it's pretty astounding that the PO is still allowed a role in the appeals.
This discussion has been closed.