So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
Isaac Levido: "The Mid-Bedfordshire result was terrible. We need a way to win back voters in the crucial Oxford-Cambridge arc."
Rishi Sunak: "I've got it! Let's build a six-lane motorway past their villages! Southern home-owners LOVE that!"
Isaac Levido: "..."
Rishi Sunak: "And we can cancel their railway too! Getting rid of HS2 North has turned round our fortunes in the north so scrapping East-West Rail will do the same!"
I'm sure it has been said twenty times this morning but in 1997 we had never had it so good. The tide was in, plenty for all so sure, why not give the other guys a chance. What's the worst that could happen.
I have no doubt that Lab will win the next GE but people will be more cautious because we are in a hole in all kinds of areas predominantly economically and to give the new guys a go will not be as obvious this time round.
Federal prosecutor to Congress: I didn’t hinder Hunter Biden probe
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/27/hunter-biden-tax-charges-california-00124037 ...Estrada acknowledged in the interview that, in the fall of 2022, he declined to “co-counsel” with Weiss on filing potential tax charges in California. Estrada cited the “practical impact of limited resources” for making that decision. But he said he didn’t stiff-arm Weiss; instead, according to Estrada, he offered to help in other ways.
“I discussed our analysis of facts and law to explain to him why we would not be co-counseling on the case, but then I told him that we were happy to provide office space, administrative support for his attorneys,” Estrada told investigators, recounting a five-minute phone call with Weiss on Oct. 19, 2022. “He thanked me for that and the call ended.”
Estrada also revealed that, prior to his appointment as U.S. attorney in September 2022, his office authorized at least two prosecutors from Weiss’ Delaware office to work as “special U.S. attorneys” in the central California district. Estrada said he believed that authorization meant that Weiss could charge Hunter Biden in California without his permission.
The Hunter Biden probe spans multiple jurisdictions because the president’s son was living in California and Washington, D.C., during years when he allegedly failed to pay federal income taxes.
Weiss and Hunter Biden’s lawyers came close to reaching a plea deal this summer that would have resolved the tax issues. But after the deal collapsed, Attorney General Merrick Garland made Weiss a special counsel, formalizing his ability to bring criminal charges anywhere in the country.
Weiss charged Biden with gun crimes last month in Delaware, and he has indicated in court documents that he may soon file tax charges in California. But so far, no tax charges have been brought.
Lawyers for the president’s son have said he belatedly paid taxes he owed, along with penalties and interest, in October 2021.
Without naming Hunter Biden, Estrada discussed how his office decides when to charge people with tax crimes.
“My understanding is where an individual has not paid taxes in the first instance but later paid those taxes with penalties and interest before a prosecution is initiated or an investigation is initiated, we have never brought criminal charges,” he said in the House Judiciary interview.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
And a biblical scholar to boot. Do your incredible gifts never end.
An interesting trip down memory lane in the header. In a way it was understandable - Toryism seemed so ingrained, so permanent that many people just couldn't come to terms with the idea it would end. Maybe it's an age thing, but when I look back Sunny Jim etc. seem more removed from Thatcher than Thatcher seems removed from the present. The Tories had seized control of history.
In my view, a Labour win at the next GE is pretty much a done deal.
It's perhaps surprising that this government has lasted so long. The whole post 2008 period has somewhat resembled the 1918-45 period, a time of low growth, high anxiety, and frequent external shocks - albeit the earlier period was much harsher than now. Although, come to think of it, the Conservatives did hold power for most of that period.
Labour and Starmer are not popular, which suggests that their support could fall sharply after 2025. As against that, they should benefit from decent economic growth. As against that, they face the fundamental problem that increasing spending on public services doesn't seem to make them any better. And, plenty of external dangers lurk, which are not the fault of any government, but the government gets the blame anyway.
Rising debt servicing costs mean that the national finances are pretty shot, whoever wins. The choice is significant tax rises or spending cuts or a prolonged dose of inflation, just to stand still.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
And a biblical scholar to boot. Do your incredible gifts never end.
He did imply that Hamas are not innocent, so there’s progress.
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
East West rail was never going to get to Cambridge. I will be surprised if Bicester to Bletchley ever opens!
I remarked earlier in the year that the glut of new railway stations was an unsung success of the Conservatives, with Geoff Marshall releasing "station opens" videos monthly. Within a few short months Sunak.xlsx has trashed all that, throwing away years of work on a whim.
we are in a hole in all kinds of areas predominantly economically and to give the new guys a go will not be as obvious this time round.
It really will, if the alternative is "let the guys who dug the hole keep digging..."
Small children in Hull could create a reasonable narrative blaming events including but not limited to Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, what have you.
They could, but the uneven distribution of the pain suggests otherwise. And the Conservatives are prisoners of their electorate, so they can't do anything about house prices.
"We send rentiers rather more than £350 million a week. Let's spend it on something useful/nice instead."
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
And a biblical scholar to boot. Do your incredible gifts never end.
He did imply that Hamas are not innocent, so there’s progress.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
Certainly an unfortunately citation: the treatment of the Amalekites is what everyone always turns to as a prime example of Old Testament genocide.
we are in a hole in all kinds of areas predominantly economically and to give the new guys a go will not be as obvious this time round.
It really will, if the alternative is "let the guys who dug the hole keep digging..."
Small children in Hull could create a reasonable narrative blaming events including but not limited to Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, what have you.
They could, but the uneven distribution of the pain suggests otherwise. And the Conservatives are prisoners of their electorate, so they can't do anything about house prices.
"We send rentiers rather more than £350 million a week. Let's spend it on something useful/nice instead."
(No I can't prove that. So what?)
Maybe. You take Joe and Joanne Average and they know they might be in a hole (see below), they are not as well-versed about the role the bond markets played in, say, Truss' downfall nor what the long bond is supposed to do.
They know that the past few years have been a bumpy ride.
That is, unless they are builders, plumbers, trades of any and all sorts, in retail or wholesale or a host of many other occupations where things are not as bleak as the perception here on PB.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
Certainly an unfortunately citation: the treatment of the Amalekites is what everyone always turns to as a prime example of Old Testament genocide.
You say that as if Old Testament genocide was a bad thing.
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
East West rail was never going to get to Cambridge. I will be surprised if Bicester to Bletchley ever opens!
I remarked earlier in the year that the glut of new railway stations was an unsung success of the Conservatives, with Geoff Marshall releasing "station opens" videos monthly. Within a few short months Sunak.xlsx has trashed all that, throwing away years of work on a whim.
Thats modern politics, anything that goes well is ignored, anything that goes wrong is massively exaggerated.
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
Well, the "central" section from Bletchley to Bedford is still out of action after the train builder Vivarail (as in the former London Underground Class 230 diesel conversions) collapsed last December. Class 150 Sprinters transferred from Northern Rail are supposed to be in route-learning training at the mo, but service probably won't re-start until January...
we are in a hole in all kinds of areas predominantly economically and to give the new guys a go will not be as obvious this time round.
It really will, if the alternative is "let the guys who dug the hole keep digging..."
Small children in Hull could create a reasonable narrative blaming events including but not limited to Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, what have you.
They could, but the uneven distribution of the pain suggests otherwise. And the Conservatives are prisoners of their electorate, so they can't do anything about house prices.
"We send rentiers rather more than £350 million a week. Let's spend it on something useful/nice instead."
(No I can't prove that. So what?)
Maybe. You take Joe and Joanne Average and they know they might be in a hole (see below), they are not as well-versed about the role the bond markets played in, say, Truss' downfall nor what the long bond is supposed to do.
They know that the past few years have been a bumpy ride.
That is, unless they are builders, plumbers, trades of any and all sorts, in retail or wholesale or a host of many other occupations where things are not as bleak as the perception here on PB.
Though the polling evidence is that J and J A do blame the Conservatives for the state of the economy. Especially that strange lady, Miss Fuss or whatever her name was. She went mad and had to be carried out in a straight jacket. And that's why we're broke.
And are you sure about life being ok in retail? Romford has local issues, sure. But there really are an awful lot of empty shop buildings out and about.
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
While the Labour leads are now similar to 1997, Blair was more popular then than Sunak is now.
Note too the economy is not as strong either, inflation especially is higher, so an incoming Labour government would face a greater challenge on that front than New Labour did
A Labour win. I've never been more certain from a betting pov on anything.
What hopes the tories had were dashed by the lunacy of Liz Truss. The already tarnished brand was finally trashed.
They will come back, I'm equally sure. But when? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? That's really the only debating point left now, not because we should close down discussion but because a Labour win is nailed on.
Personally, and this bit is much more subjective / spiritual ... I think they have lost it for a generation so the defeat will be like 1979 and 1997. But that bit is uncertain. If Labour stuff it up, which they are perfectly capable of doing and / or world events overwhelm them, and IF the tories come to their senses and appoint someone who isn't a nasty, then they could come back much sooner.
Unlikely
If they win labour will get a 6 month holiday and then they will start to watch the polls head south. Labour has no policies in the air atm and being all things to all voters only works for an election. After that people start to get disappointed when their problems havent gone away
You are of course entitled to your view but it's based on nothing but conjecture so 'unlikely' is entirely subjective and has little or no basis in fact.
They are just as 'likely' to do relatively well, as Blair did because they have a much lower benchmark from which to begin so the adage 'things can only get better' may well this time be the case.
LOL, "conjecture"
Your post was based on chat with a bloke down the pub and described by yourself as subjective,
I am pointing to the poor state of government finances which to quote Liam Byrne means there is no money. There is also no growth plan so I fail to see how Starmer can do that much. I am not that concerned on a Labour govt as they will essentially run this govts policies. Labour will be restricted by cash bar a bit of dabbling to make it look as if it is doing something. It can have more fun on its social engineering side of the equation since this costs less. And ultimately I think thats what we will see if they get in.
Alan, you could have added that Starmer is bland and weak, they will be in trouble quickly as he dithers and flip flops.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
East West rail was never going to get to Cambridge. I will be surprised if Bicester to Bletchley ever opens!
I remarked earlier in the year that the glut of new railway stations was an unsung success of the Conservatives, with Geoff Marshall releasing "station opens" videos monthly. Within a few short months Sunak.xlsx has trashed all that, throwing away years of work on a whim.
Thats modern politics, anything that goes well is ignored, anything that goes wrong is massively exaggerated.
Onm the other hand, yoiu wouldn't want a government which did things so badly for so long that any success was made the subject of banner headlines out of sheer surprise.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
There is lots of stuff I never look at, but in the world I view the Tories chances for 2024 are written off to such an extent that actually they seem slight exaggerations.
The huge difference between 1996 and 2023 is that in those olden days the world was still capable of doses of hope, and though the Tories were mired in sleaze, and it was 'time for a change', the UK government under Major hadn't done all that badly. Labour, for most, was the better of two flawed but electable options. As a Tory inclined voter it never crossed my mind to vote Labour.
Currently it would never cross my mind to vote Tory, and in domestic terms the case against the Tories is overwhelming in morals, leadership, consistency and competence.
But the other big change is that the world looks so much more damaged and dangerous now than in 1996. Militarism and forms of fascism and dictatorship dominate the news and have done for 20 years.
This is currently a much greater threat to Labour, divided on all these things, than the Tories. Events beyond Sir K's control are the greatest threat to Labour's vote.
A Labour win. I've never been more certain from a betting pov on anything.
What hopes the tories had were dashed by the lunacy of Liz Truss. The already tarnished brand was finally trashed.
They will come back, I'm equally sure. But when? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? That's really the only debating point left now, not because we should close down discussion but because a Labour win is nailed on.
Personally, and this bit is much more subjective / spiritual ... I think they have lost it for a generation so the defeat will be like 1979 and 1997. But that bit is uncertain. If Labour stuff it up, which they are perfectly capable of doing and / or world events overwhelm them, and IF the tories come to their senses and appoint someone who isn't a nasty, then they could come back much sooner.
Unlikely
If they win labour will get a 6 month holiday and then they will start to watch the polls head south. Labour has no policies in the air atm and being all things to all voters only works for an election. After that people start to get disappointed when their problems havent gone away
And yet, as I have pointed out before, the government has changed twice in my adult life time, in 1997 and 2010. One of the other things I remember from 1997 is Tories deluding themselves that the new Labour government would rapidly fall apart and things would be back to "normal" soon enough.
Whilst I agree that disillusionment will set in for the new government many of those in Ministerial positions in Westminster will never be in power again. They should think about that and try and do something useful in their remaining months.
I dont think Labour can do that much so the fear factor isnt there to support Sunak. I think this could be more like 2010. I remember on PB.com the conservative posters went from nailed on 12 months out to what ? as the results came in. Cameron had a massive mountain to climb but never fully convinced the electorate. I think Starmer is in a similar position.
I don't disagree with that. Starmer is probably even less scary than Blair and Brown appeared at the time. Their policies, such as they are, are tinkering at the edges, a billion here raised by X and a billion there raised by Y. In the scheme of a public sector consuming £800bn a year already they are meaningless.
But that doesn't mean that the Tories will be back any time soon. They have got to find another Cameron or another Boris electorally: someone who can reach beyond the base and bring in significant numbers of the uncommitted. I don't see anyone in their party that even has the first clue how to do that.
Indeed it is pretty clear that the Tory party will pick a leader from its right wing fringe. Even a dull and timid Starmer government will be in for a decade before the Tories pick a leader with a plan that will capture centrist voters.
Yes, with apologies to @noneoftheabove , the reason we study history is that it does tend to repeat itself.
After 1979, Labour lurched to the Left with an unelectable neo-trotskyite Michael Foot.
After 1997, the Conservatives lurched to the right in not such an extreme way but William Hague wasn't at his finest, and Michael Howard likewise hardly appealed to the centre ground of British politics.
It will be interesting to see what they do. If they go for someone like Braverman, Badenoch, or Patel then they're going to lose the next election too.
Wilderness years ahead. No wonder the likes of Jeremy Hunt want to jump now.
Thatcher was considered a rightwing hardliner and unelectable in 1975 but still beat the centrist Callaghan in 1979 due to the economic situation
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
It's a poor national anthem, IMO. Tonally all over the place, and inaccessible for all but the most competent singers. Not really a singalong. IMO the best national anthem is the Marseillaise.
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
Don't worry - this is the south of England. That 6 land motorway will be entirely submerged in a tunnel, funded by the cancellation of Northern Powerhouse.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
Are France and UK ready for every democracy wanting to be our best friend? And have we checked that we can light the blue touch paper without USA technical assistance?
A Labour win. I've never been more certain from a betting pov on anything.
What hopes the tories had were dashed by the lunacy of Liz Truss. The already tarnished brand was finally trashed.
They will come back, I'm equally sure. But when? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? That's really the only debating point left now, not because we should close down discussion but because a Labour win is nailed on.
Personally, and this bit is much more subjective / spiritual ... I think they have lost it for a generation so the defeat will be like 1979 and 1997. But that bit is uncertain. If Labour stuff it up, which they are perfectly capable of doing and / or world events overwhelm them, and IF the tories come to their senses and appoint someone who isn't a nasty, then they could come back much sooner.
Unlikely
If they win labour will get a 6 month holiday and then they will start to watch the polls head south. Labour has no policies in the air atm and being all things to all voters only works for an election. After that people start to get disappointed when their problems havent gone away
And yet, as I have pointed out before, the government has changed twice in my adult life time, in 1997 and 2010. One of the other things I remember from 1997 is Tories deluding themselves that the new Labour government would rapidly fall apart and things would be back to "normal" soon enough.
Whilst I agree that disillusionment will set in for the new government many of those in Ministerial positions in Westminster will never be in power again. They should think about that and try and do something useful in their remaining months.
I dont think Labour can do that much so the fear factor isnt there to support Sunak. I think this could be more like 2010. I remember on PB.com the conservative posters went from nailed on 12 months out to what ? as the results came in. Cameron had a massive mountain to climb but never fully convinced the electorate. I think Starmer is in a similar position.
I don't disagree with that. Starmer is probably even less scary than Blair and Brown appeared at the time. Their policies, such as they are, are tinkering at the edges, a billion here raised by X and a billion there raised by Y. In the scheme of a public sector consuming £800bn a year already they are meaningless.
But that doesn't mean that the Tories will be back any time soon. They have got to find another Cameron or another Boris electorally: someone who can reach beyond the base and bring in significant numbers of the uncommitted. I don't see anyone in their party that even has the first clue how to do that.
The Tories have no more any policies than Labour. They need to start by deciding what they are for. But the 5 year 10 year debate in my view comes down the to size of majority a Labour Govt will have, I cant see there being much good news in a first term so if its a small majority a disillusioned electorate may quickly change their minds. If its a larger majority they will probably hang on for two terms.
I think 3 terms is more likely than 1 or 2 terms. However, that’s rather too long a period for a bet! If anyone wants to point and laugh at me in 11 years time, feel free.
President Trump is going to be the most isolationist President for a century. That is probably better than him pursuing an actively destructive foreign policy.
Trump will be less isolationist in terms of China, he will be focused on reducing Chinese economic strength and matching it militarily. He would also support Israel again.
Russia however would not be his problem, it would be for Europe and Canada to contain Putin. Which given Putin's limited progress in Ukraine is hardly impossible.
Assuming Trump is not convicted and jailed next year of course too
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
It's a poor national anthem, IMO. Tonally all over the place, and inaccessible for all but the most competent singers. Not really a singalong. ..
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
The American national anthem has never been quite the same since someone pointed out the break to We Wish You a Merry Christmas in the bit about the flag.
Armenians, Kurds, Assyrian Christians, Pontine Greeks, and a number of others may disagree somewhat.
I wonder - does anyone see a future where Turkey gets all self absorbed in the wrongness of the Ottoman Empire?
Or will the GA Henty version of their National Story march on and on?
It's only in Western countries that people get concerned about imperial history. In places like China, Iran, or Turkey, or Russia, it's seen as glorious.
Well, I don’t think the Tibetans and Uighurs in China, the Kurds and Azeris in Iran, the more Kurds and Armenians in Turkey, or the Chechens and Kalmyks in Russia see it as glorious, of course.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
I'd have thought you'd want to change the name. GDTO perhaps - Global Defence Treaty organisation ?
Edit: Of course without the USA NATO is far far less powerful.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
Rather more chilling than the oft quoted 'From the river to the sea'.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
It's a poor national anthem, IMO. Tonally all over the place, and inaccessible for all but the most competent singers. Not really a singalong. IMO the best national anthem is the Marseillaise.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
A Labour win. I've never been more certain from a betting pov on anything.
What hopes the tories had were dashed by the lunacy of Liz Truss. The already tarnished brand was finally trashed.
They will come back, I'm equally sure. But when? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? That's really the only debating point left now, not because we should close down discussion but because a Labour win is nailed on.
Personally, and this bit is much more subjective / spiritual ... I think they have lost it for a generation so the defeat will be like 1979 and 1997. But that bit is uncertain. If Labour stuff it up, which they are perfectly capable of doing and / or world events overwhelm them, and IF the tories come to their senses and appoint someone who isn't a nasty, then they could come back much sooner.
Unlikely
If they win labour will get a 6 month holiday and then they will start to watch the polls head south. Labour has no policies in the air atm and being all things to all voters only works for an election. After that people start to get disappointed when their problems havent gone away
And yet, as I have pointed out before, the government has changed twice in my adult life time, in 1997 and 2010. One of the other things I remember from 1997 is Tories deluding themselves that the new Labour government would rapidly fall apart and things would be back to "normal" soon enough.
Whilst I agree that disillusionment will set in for the new government many of those in Ministerial positions in Westminster will never be in power again. They should think about that and try and do something useful in their remaining months.
I dont think Labour can do that much so the fear factor isnt there to support Sunak. I think this could be more like 2010. I remember on PB.com the conservative posters went from nailed on 12 months out to what ? as the results came in. Cameron had a massive mountain to climb but never fully convinced the electorate. I think Starmer is in a similar position.
I don't disagree with that. Starmer is probably even less scary than Blair and Brown appeared at the time. Their policies, such as they are, are tinkering at the edges, a billion here raised by X and a billion there raised by Y. In the scheme of a public sector consuming £800bn a year already they are meaningless.
But that doesn't mean that the Tories will be back any time soon. They have got to find another Cameron or another Boris electorally: someone who can reach beyond the base and bring in significant numbers of the uncommitted. I don't see anyone in their party that even has the first clue how to do that.
The Tories have no more any policies than Labour. They need to start by deciding what they are for. But the 5 year 10 year debate in my view comes down the to size of majority a Labour Govt will have, I cant see there being much good news in a first term so if its a small majority a disillusioned electorate may quickly change their minds. If its a larger majority they will probably hang on for two terms.
I think 3 terms is more likely than 1 or 2 terms. However, that’s rather too long a period for a bet! If anyone wants to point and laugh at me in 11 years time, feel free.
I think a lot will come down to the nature of the Conservative defeat, if that’s what happens. There are a number of paths they could go down.
Most likely is a retreat further to the batshit ERG core - a lot of the full-bore crazies have decent majorities. I would not rule out a ‘Farage Spring’ scenario either - which could actually split the party.
Hopefully not though. Good government requires a strong and sane opposition.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
No you weren't. I realise that.
What makes your comment so sad is that there are far too many people in this country who do think that. They have revealed themselves fully in the last three weeks. It is a horrible sight.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
It's a poor national anthem, IMO. Tonally all over the place, and inaccessible for all but the most competent singers. Not really a singalong. IMO the best national anthem is the Marseillaise.
It is the best national anthem by miles, if only thanks to its many and varied interpreters. Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
It's a poor national anthem, IMO. Tonally all over the place, and inaccessible for all but the most competent singers. Not really a singalong.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Though there are increasing ties in arms production. Poland/S Korea; Japan/UK; UK involvement in the nuclear deal with Australia, for example.
A genuinely isolationist US would leave a massive gap, but it would very likely see large increases in defence spending in both Europe and Asia.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
What were you trying to be?
Well if it helps I was trying not to be a snide, arch commentator who never actually makes a point about anything and instead carps from the sidelines.
Armenians, Kurds, Assyrian Christians, Pontine Greeks, and a number of others may disagree somewhat.
I wonder - does anyone see a future where Turkey gets all self absorbed in the wrongness of the Ottoman Empire?
Or will the GA Henty version of their National Story march on and on?
It's only in Western countries that people get concerned about imperial history. In places like China, Iran, or Turkey, or Russia, it's seen as glorious.
Well, I don’t think the Tibetans and Uighurs in China, the Kurds and Azeris in Iran, the more Kurds and Armenians in Turkey, or the Chechens and Kalmyks in Russia see it as glorious, of course.
That’s the thing about a properly run empire. The subjects have The Story explained to them until they are With The Program.
Sometimes (often) Being With The Program means being dead, but hey…
So... rumours that a new east-west highway will be 'proposed' (Cambridge to Oxford, presumably...), which was cancelled a handful of years ago. And the East-West rail project will be scrapped to Cambridge.
If true, it looks like the Tories are going very much for a 'we luv tarmac' election.
And I hope the nimbys in villages like Haslingfield have a six-lane motorway driven past their homes...
Isaac Levido: "The Mid-Bedfordshire result was terrible. We need a way to win back voters in the crucial Oxford-Cambridge arc."
Rishi Sunak: "I've got it! Let's build a six-lane motorway past their villages! Southern home-owners LOVE that!"
Isaac Levido: "..."
Rishi Sunak: "And we can cancel their railway too! Getting rid of HS2 North has turned round our fortunes in the north so scrapping East-West Rail will do the same!"
When the reality can no longer be satirised. Seems highly likely this is exactly the exchange that happened.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it.
Nobody on here is saying that
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
In my view, a Labour win at the next GE is pretty much a done deal.
It's perhaps surprising that this government has lasted so long. The whole post 2008 period has somewhat resembled the 1918-45 period, a time of low growth, high anxiety, and frequent external shocks - albeit the earlier period was much harsher than now. Although, come to think of it, the Conservatives did hold power for most of that period.
Labour and Starmer are not popular, which suggests that their support could fall sharply after 2025. As against that, they should benefit from decent economic growth. As against that, they face the fundamental problem that increasing spending on public services doesn't seem to make them any better. And, plenty of external dangers lurk, which are not the fault of any government, but the government gets the blame anyway.
Rising debt servicing costs mean that the national finances are pretty shot, whoever wins. The choice is significant tax rises or spending cuts or a prolonged dose of inflation, just to stand still.
If it all proper kicks off in Middle East then the prolonged dose of inflation is a definite.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Define support - 10,000 artillery shells by Tuesday? A shared LEO constellation?
I would suspect that if the US goes isolationist, the response will include increasing capabilities to try and bridge the gaps.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Of course France, Germany, Poland, the UK, Turkey, Italy and Canada can work together to contain Russia. That should be NATO's main purpose and preserving security in Europe as that was what NATO was created to do.
What happens in Asia and the Pacific containing China is irrelevant to NATO, that is the problem of the US, in or out of NATO, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Singapore and India
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
What were you trying to be?
Well if it helps I was trying not to be a snide, arch commentator who never actually makes a point about anything and instead carps from the sidelines.
Your welcome.
Gratified to occupy such an important place in your resentful heart, old sport. However I didn’t ask you what you weren’t trying to be.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
No you weren't. I realise that.
What makes your comment so sad is that there are far too many people in this country who do think that. They have revealed themselves fully in the last three weeks. It is a horrible sight.
It’s just a form of guilt avoidance. See Notes on Nationalism by Orwell.
- My Team did a Bad Thing - This would make me Feel Bad. - So The Bad Thing was actually done by Them - I feel better
Matthew Light @MattLightCrim On the Makhachkala airport pogrom: I have traveled in the Caucasus, although not Dagestan. Both the northern (Russian) and southern (independent) regions feature ancient Jewish communities that have generally lived in peace with their neighbours. This episode shocked me.1/
President Trump is going to be the most isolationist President for a century. That is probably better than him pursuing an actively destructive foreign policy.
Last time around he struck a deal with the Taliban that torpedoed the Afghan government. Tried to extort Ukraine. Sided with Russia against his own intelligence agencies. Kissed Saudi ass. Assasinated the leader of the Quds Force when he was in Baghdad, nearly sparking a conflict with Iran. Threatened North Korea with a nuclear attack several times, whilst at the same time threatening to pull troops out of South Korea.
That was destructive foreign policy in my view, and that's when there were adults in the room, like Pompeo, Mattis, Tillerson, Kelly, Coats and others, who deliberately stalled or thwarted some of Trump's more dangerous ideas. Trump hates those people now and has denounced most of them. Next time around there will not be GOP placemen reigning in Trump, there will be red-hatted Maga idiots cheering Trump on. I expect to see extremely destructive foreign policy if God forbid Trump is elected again.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it.
Nobody on here is saying that
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
All innocents have equal worth
You believe that Israel is unfairly oppressing the Palestinians and hence the Hamas actions were justified in that context. If you believe that or something close to it then every Israeli is complicit in that oppression. Hence she was asking for it.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
What were you trying to be?
Well if it helps I was trying not to be a snide, arch commentator who never actually makes a point about anything and instead carps from the sidelines.
Your welcome.
Gratified to occupy such an important place in your resentful heart, old sport. However I didn’t ask you what you weren’t trying to be.
Sometimes you don't get what you ask for. It's all part of growing up.
Matthew Light @MattLightCrim On the Makhachkala airport pogrom: I have traveled in the Caucasus, although not Dagestan. Both the northern (Russian) and southern (independent) regions feature ancient Jewish communities that have generally lived in peace with their neighbours. This episode shocked me.1/
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
And a biblical scholar to boot. Do your incredible gifts never end.
I did go through an edgy atheist phase as a teen that led me to reading an unnecessary amount of religious literature... But mostly I'm just curious and read things from lots of different people.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
Absolute nonsense. Netanyahu doesn't quote or reference that verse from I Samuel: the reference he is making to Deuteronomy 25:17-19: Remember what Amalek did to you on the way as you came out of Egypt, How he attacked you on the way when you were faint and weary, and cut off your tail, those who were lagging behind you, and he did not fear God. Therefore when the Lord your God has given you rest from all your enemies around you, in the land that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance to possess, you shall blot out the memory of Amalek from under heaven; you shall not forget.
The similarities in terms of surprise attacks are clear, and it's clearly meant as encouraging the elimination of Hamas, not indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Israelis listening would understand it as such.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it.
Nobody on here is saying that
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
All innocents have equal worth
You believe that Israel is unfairly oppressing the Palestinians and hence the Hamas actions were justified in that context. If you believe that or something close to it then every Israeli is complicit in that oppression. Hence she was asking for it.
I've no idea what BJO thinks but whatever happens, it is just as false, offensive and absurd to claim that every Israeli is complicit as it is to assert that every Palestinian is complicit in Hamas's outrages.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
And a biblical scholar to boot. Do your incredible gifts never end.
I did go through an edgy atheist phase as a teen that led me to reading an unnecessary amount of religious literature... But mostly I'm just curious and read things from lots of different people.
Talking about genocides I'm currently reading about the Albigensian crusades. Do these religious types never learn (ans: no).
Yes I remember in the run-up to the 1997 GE that despite all the evidence there was a reluctance to believe the Tories were in for a thrashing, I made a packet on the spread betting off the back of that. I was hoping the same 'dip your bread in it' opportunity would arise this time but alas, not so much. If you look at the betfair 'size of Con seat losses' market it implies that Labour landslide is now a clear odds-on favourite.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it.
Nobody on here is saying that
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
All innocents have equal worth
You believe that Israel is unfairly oppressing the Palestinians and hence the Hamas actions were justified in that context. If you believe that or something close to it then every Israeli is complicit in that oppression. Hence she was asking for it.
I've no idea what BJO thinks but whatever happens, it is just as false, offensive and absurd to claim that every Israeli is complicit as it is to assert that every Palestinian is complicit in Hamas's outrages.
You are having a logic fail. As we know, and forgive the assumption but I include BJO amongst them, there is a huge number of people who believe Israel is the oppressor and has been occupying "Palestine" since 1948/1967/1973 of pick a number. The Hamas actions were designed to end this occupation. If you take action to end an occupation it is a noble effort. The oppressors must be overthrown. As a whole, therefore, all Israelis are complicit because they choose to live in the country. Hence for people like BJO the girl was indeed culpable.
As for the Palestinians well yes also. They elected Hamas in 2006 and have to live with the consequences.
That said, if we were to google it I bet I could find some Israeli peace groups dedicated to, er, peace with the Palestinians. I might just do it now because I am interested in how many Palestinian peace groups there are.
Matthew Light @MattLightCrim On the Makhachkala airport pogrom: I have traveled in the Caucasus, although not Dagestan. Both the northern (Russian) and southern (independent) regions feature ancient Jewish communities that have generally lived in peace with their neighbours. This episode shocked me.1/
Putin has encouraged local nationalisms, as long as they don’t threaten him. So, Kadyrov in bordering Chechnya is very nationalistic, as long as he bows down to Putin. I’m not up on what’s happening in Dagestan. I know there have been significant protests against mobilisation: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_Caucasian_protests
Encouraging antisemitism may be a convenient way for the Putinists to distract the large population — suffering some of the highest unemployment in the country — from protesting against Moscow. However, it is reported that Ilya Ponomarev, a Putin opponent who was involved in the anti-mobilisation protests, has also been involved in pushing these antisemitic protests. Putin’s guy in Dagestan spoke out against this attack.
A Russian war correspondent (therefore pro-Putin) said, "those who want to kill Jews should go to Gaza or Kyiv. I know the address of one, I can tell you: Bankova, 11 [Ukrainian President’s address].”
Chechnya is mostly Chechen. Dagestan is mostly Muslim, but it’s very ethnically diverse. It’s always been a mixed population.
The government should absolutely block this, the research is inevitably going to be used by the CCP and our scientific resources should not be used to aid the CCP in the continued oppression of China.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Define support - 10,000 artillery shells by Tuesday? A shared LEO constellation?
I would suspect that if the US goes isolationist, the response will include increasing capabilities to try and bridge the gaps.
I also assume that unless the US goes full-on Putinist, their weapons manufacturers will be more than delighted to continue selling to Ukraine at market prices, as indeed is the case with much of what Ukraine buys. What would be lost would be freebies from the store cupboard, and (presumably) close intelligence and tactical coordination - but that's an area where I would hope the UK, France, Canada and others might be able to fill the gap.
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible" 1 Samuel 15:3 "Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
And a biblical scholar to boot. Do your incredible gifts never end.
I did go through an edgy atheist phase as a teen that led me to reading an unnecessary amount of religious literature... But mostly I'm just curious and read things from lots of different people.
Talking about genocides I'm currently reading about the Albigensian crusades. Do these religious types never learn (ans: no).
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why would they want to join? They've got enough trouble in their own part of the world with China and it's not like NATO has any resource to combat China without the US.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
No you weren't. I realise that.
What makes your comment so sad is that there are far too many people in this country who do think that. They have revealed themselves fully in the last three weeks. It is a horrible sight.
Many people's first reaction to the Twin Towers was that the Americans had it coming. Then when the fog cleared and people were seen falling from buildings the mood changed and it became a human tragedy.
Had the Israelis not been so belligerent and concentrated on the humanitarian side as the Americans did then the anti Israel rhetoric would have been much more muted. Since then it has all been about what pain they can cause to the Gazans and that has alienated even their friends
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Define support - 10,000 artillery shells by Tuesday? A shared LEO constellation?
I would suspect that if the US goes isolationist, the response will include increasing capabilities to try and bridge the gaps.
I also assume that unless the US goes full-on Putinist, their weapons manufacturers will be more than delighted to continue selling to Ukraine at market prices, as indeed is the case with much of what Ukraine buys. What would be lost would be freebies from the store cupboard, and (presumably) close intelligence and tactical coordination - but that's an area where I would hope the UK, France, Canada and others might be able to fill the gap.
Ukraine has considerably less than no money. Everything they buy from the US now is on credit with very little expectation of settlement. They also rely on regular loot drops from the US just to keep the lights on and pay government wages.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
No you weren't. I realise that.
What makes your comment so sad is that there are far too many people in this country who do think that. They have revealed themselves fully in the last three weeks. It is a horrible sight.
Many people's first reaction to the Twin Towers was that the Americans had it coming. Then when the fog cleared and people were seen falling from buildings the mood changed instantly and it became a human tragedy. Had the Israelis not been so belligerent and concentrated on the humanitarian side as the Americans did then the anti Israel rhetoric would have been much more muted. Since then it has all been about what pain they can cause to the Gazans and that hasn't helped
Matthew Light @MattLightCrim On the Makhachkala airport pogrom: I have traveled in the Caucasus, although not Dagestan. Both the northern (Russian) and southern (independent) regions feature ancient Jewish communities that have generally lived in peace with their neighbours. This episode shocked me.1/
Putin has encouraged local nationalisms, as long as they don’t threaten him. So, Kadyrov in bordering Chechnya is very nationalistic, as long as he bows down to Putin. I’m not up on what’s happening in Dagestan. I know there have been significant protests against mobilisation: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_Caucasian_protests
Encouraging antisemitism may be a convenient way for the Putinists to distract the large population — suffering some of the highest unemployment in the country — from protesting against Moscow. However, it is reported that Ilya Ponomarev, a Putin opponent who was involved in the anti-mobilisation protests, has also been involved in pushing these antisemitic protests. Putin’s guy in Dagestan spoke out against this attack.
A Russian war correspondent (therefore pro-Putin) said, "those who want to kill Jews should go to Gaza or Kyiv. I know the address of one, I can tell you: Bankova, 11 [Ukrainian President’s address].”
Chechnya is mostly Chechen. Dagestan is mostly Muslim, but it’s very ethnically diverse. It’s always been a mixed population.
The Jews have been convenient scapegoats for governments in trouble since time immemorial. I would guess Putin will be fairly content to see the target of resentment be them rather than his government, especially in fractious Caucasus republics. But will retain tactical distance from anything too much like direct support.
The government should absolutely block this, the research is inevitably going to be used by the CCP and our scientific resources should not be used to aid the CCP in the continued oppression of China.
By coincidence, I was talking to somebody who has received funding from Huawei last week. It was very interesting conversation. And I absolutely agree with your stance.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it.
Nobody on here is saying that
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
All innocents have equal worth
You believe that Israel is unfairly oppressing the Palestinians and hence the Hamas actions were justified in that context. If you believe that or something close to it then every Israeli is complicit in that oppression. Hence she was asking for it.
I've no idea what BJO thinks but whatever happens, it is just as false, offensive and absurd to claim that every Israeli is complicit as it is to assert that every Palestinian is complicit in Hamas's outrages.
The football supporter meme sometimes posited on here seems fairly apposite. As a mere carper from the sidelines it seems to me that one set of supporters on PB is stridently louder and more enamoured with the sound of their own voices than the other.
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it.
Nobody on here is saying that
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
All innocents have equal worth
You believe that Israel is unfairly oppressing the Palestinians and hence the Hamas actions were justified in that context. If you believe that or something close to it then every Israeli is complicit in that oppression. Hence she was asking for it.
I've no idea what BJO thinks but whatever happens, it is just as false, offensive and absurd to claim that every Israeli is complicit as it is to assert that every Palestinian is complicit in Hamas's outrages.
You are having a logic fail. As we know, and forgive the assumption but I include BJO amongst them, there is a huge number of people who believe Israel is the oppressor and has been occupying "Palestine" since 1948/1967/1973 of pick a number. The Hamas actions were designed to end this occupation. If you take action to end an occupation it is a noble effort. The oppressors must be overthrown. As a whole, therefore, all Israelis are complicit because they choose to live in the country. Hence for people like BJO the girl was indeed culpable.
As for the Palestinians well yes also. They elected Hamas in 2006 and have to live with the consequences.
That said, if we were to google it I bet I could find some Israeli peace groups dedicated to, er, peace with the Palestinians. I might just do it now because I am interested in how many Palestinian peace groups there are.
They, Israeli or Palestinian, are no more complicit than you or I cancelled HS2.
Europe and Britain need to be making plans now for the disappearance of NATO or, more accurately, the US's withdrawal from NATO, if Trump wins next year.
I do wonder if we should be working on expanding NATO to include countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Would they want to join? There are numerous geopolitical factors at play here.
Why? NATO minus US can't project power, in a meaningful and enduring sense, to Australasia and they can't project power to Europe. It would be an alliance of countries that can't support each other.
Define support - 10,000 artillery shells by Tuesday? A shared LEO constellation?
I would suspect that if the US goes isolationist, the response will include increasing capabilities to try and bridge the gaps.
I also assume that unless the US goes full-on Putinist, their weapons manufacturers will be more than delighted to continue selling to Ukraine at market prices, as indeed is the case with much of what Ukraine buys. What would be lost would be freebies from the store cupboard, and (presumably) close intelligence and tactical coordination - but that's an area where I would hope the UK, France, Canada and others might be able to fill the gap.
Ukraine has considerably less than no money. Everything they buy from the US now is on credit with very little expectation of settlement. They also rely on regular loot drops from the US just to keep the lights on and pay government wages.
Yes I appreciate that but money is easier to replace through other channels - i.e. the EU and UK - than direct strategic or military support. It'll be a choice for the rest of NATO and the EU, either to step up or hang them out to dry. So far the financial value of support per capita has been similar from the EU as from the US, and of course significantly higher in a few cases (like the Baltics).
The body of that German girl, Shami Louk, who was attacked at the music festival and paraded on the back of a truck while men abused her has been found. RIP.
She, together with all Israelis, was asking for it, Cyclefree. Get with the narrative.
not funny
I wasn't trying to be.
No you weren't. I realise that.
What makes your comment so sad is that there are far too many people in this country who do think that. They have revealed themselves fully in the last three weeks. It is a horrible sight.
Many people's first reaction to the Twin Towers was that the Americans had it coming. Then when the fog cleared and people were seen falling from buildings the mood changed and it became a human tragedy.
Had the Israelis not been so belligerent and concentrated on the humanitarian side as the Americans did then the anti Israel rhetoric would have been much more muted. Since then it has all been about what pain they can cause to the Gazans and that has alienated even their friends
The world definitely prefers its Jews to be compliant, weak, turn the other cheek types.
As PM of Israel what would you have done on October 7th?
Comments
Isaac Levido: "The Mid-Bedfordshire result was terrible. We need a way to win back voters in the crucial Oxford-Cambridge arc."
Rishi Sunak: "I've got it! Let's build a six-lane motorway past their villages! Southern home-owners LOVE that!"
Isaac Levido: "..."
Rishi Sunak: "And we can cancel their railway too! Getting rid of HS2 North has turned round our fortunes in the north so scrapping East-West Rail will do the same!"
I have no doubt that Lab will win the next GE but people will be more cautious because we are in a hole in all kinds of areas predominantly economically and to give the new guys a go will not be as obvious this time round.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/27/hunter-biden-tax-charges-california-00124037
...Estrada acknowledged in the interview that, in the fall of 2022, he declined to “co-counsel” with Weiss on filing potential tax charges in California. Estrada cited the “practical impact of limited resources” for making that decision. But he said he didn’t stiff-arm Weiss; instead, according to Estrada, he offered to help in other ways.
“I discussed our analysis of facts and law to explain to him why we would not be co-counseling on the case, but then I told him that we were happy to provide office space, administrative support for his attorneys,” Estrada told investigators, recounting a five-minute phone call with Weiss on Oct. 19, 2022. “He thanked me for that and the call ended.”
Estrada also revealed that, prior to his appointment as U.S. attorney in September 2022, his office authorized at least two prosecutors from Weiss’ Delaware office to work as “special U.S. attorneys” in the central California district. Estrada said he believed that authorization meant that Weiss could charge Hunter Biden in California without his permission.
The Hunter Biden probe spans multiple jurisdictions because the president’s son was living in California and Washington, D.C., during years when he allegedly failed to pay federal income taxes.
Weiss and Hunter Biden’s lawyers came close to reaching a plea deal this summer that would have resolved the tax issues. But after the deal collapsed, Attorney General Merrick Garland made Weiss a special counsel, formalizing his ability to bring criminal charges anywhere in the country.
Weiss charged Biden with gun crimes last month in Delaware, and he has indicated in court documents that he may soon file tax charges in California. But so far, no tax charges have been brought.
Lawyers for the president’s son have said he belatedly paid taxes he owed, along with penalties and interest, in October 2021.
Without naming Hunter Biden, Estrada discussed how his office decides when to charge people with tax crimes.
“My understanding is where an individual has not paid taxes in the first instance but later paid those taxes with penalties and interest before a prosecution is initiated or an investigation is initiated, we have never brought criminal charges,” he said in the House Judiciary interview.
https://twitter.com/nathanlean/status/1718636556112495084
Netanyahu declaring invasion: "You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible"
1 Samuel 15:3
"Now go and smite Amalek, and utterly destroy all that they have, and spare them not; but slay both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass"
This is a call for a continuation of indiscriminate violence against innocent Palestinians, not attacks aimed just at Hamas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW1Pc4zvqN8
"We send rentiers rather more than £350 million a week. Let's spend it on something useful/nice instead."
(No I can't prove that. So what?)
They know that the past few years have been a bumpy ride.
That is, unless they are builders, plumbers, trades of any and all sorts, in retail or wholesale or a host of many other occupations where things are not as bleak as the perception here on PB.
Well, if you sign up and log in to "X" or whatever it's called now
And are you sure about life being ok in retail? Romford has local issues, sure. But there really are an awful lot of empty shop buildings out and about.
Here's the sublime to go alongside the ridiculous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAYKTMQl7MQ
Note too the economy is not as strong either, inflation especially is higher, so an incoming Labour government would face a greater challenge on that front than New Labour did
https://twitter.com/ukctransparency/status/1718907837823246411
A good thing, or a bad thing ?
There is lots of stuff I never look at, but in the world I view the Tories chances for 2024 are written off to such an extent that actually they seem slight exaggerations.
The huge difference between 1996 and 2023 is that in those olden days the world was still capable of doses of hope, and though the Tories were mired in sleaze, and it was 'time for a change', the UK government under Major hadn't done all that badly. Labour, for most, was the better of two flawed but electable options. As a Tory inclined voter it never crossed my mind to vote Labour.
Currently it would never cross my mind to vote Tory, and in domestic terms the case against the Tories is overwhelming in morals, leadership, consistency and competence.
But the other big change is that the world looks so much more damaged and dangerous now than in 1996. Militarism and forms
of fascism and dictatorship dominate the news and have done for 20 years.
This is currently a much greater threat to Labour, divided on all these things, than the Tories. Events beyond Sir K's control are the greatest threat to Labour's vote.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1718723429900210485
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/labour-losing-voters-over-gaza-matters-whether-it-hurts-electorally-or-not/ar-AA1j4jlG?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=7bdf93d808994da19e89a3c446508659&ei=8
IMO the best national anthem is the Marseillaise.
Russia however would not be his problem, it would be for Europe and Canada to contain Putin. Which given Putin's limited progress in Ukraine is hardly impossible.
Assuming Trump is not convicted and jailed next year of course too
https://nitter.net/Samfr/status/1715432503958282676
Edit: Of course without the USA NATO is far far less powerful.
Maybe that too will become a catch-phrase?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM4mIlYKG9s
Even its emergency stand-by plan B anthem is impressive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emPhXdwhQoE
Most likely is a retreat further to the batshit ERG core - a lot of the full-bore crazies have decent majorities. I would not rule out a ‘Farage Spring’ scenario either - which could actually split the party.
Hopefully not though. Good government requires a strong and sane opposition.
What makes your comment so sad is that there are far too many people in this country who do think that. They have revealed themselves fully in the last three weeks. It is a horrible sight.
2. Russia
3. France
Poland/S Korea; Japan/UK; UK involvement in the nuclear deal with Australia, for example.
A genuinely isolationist US would leave a massive gap, but it would very likely see large increases in defence spending in both Europe and Asia.
Your welcome.
Sometimes (often) Being With The Program means being dead, but hey…
Except you in this post.
Most on here are equally appalled at the death of all innocents.
Cyclefree only seems to post about Israeli deaths which have now been dwarfed in the revenge Genocide. 40 Kids 3000 Kids thats 3040 too many.
All innocents have equal worth
I would suspect that if the US goes isolationist, the response will include increasing capabilities to try and bridge the gaps.
What happens in Asia and the Pacific containing China is
irrelevant to NATO, that is the problem of the US, in or out of NATO, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Singapore and India
However I didn’t ask you what you weren’t trying to be.
- My Team did a Bad Thing
- This would make me Feel Bad.
- So The Bad Thing was actually done by Them
- I feel better
@MattLightCrim
On the Makhachkala airport pogrom: I have traveled in the Caucasus, although not Dagestan. Both the northern (Russian) and southern (independent) regions feature ancient Jewish communities that have generally lived in peace with their neighbours. This episode shocked me.1/
https://twitter.com/MattLightCrim/status/1718818679608037424
That was destructive foreign policy in my view, and that's when there were adults in the room, like Pompeo, Mattis, Tillerson, Kelly, Coats and others, who deliberately stalled or thwarted some of Trump's more dangerous ideas. Trump hates those people now and has denounced most of them. Next time around there will not be GOP placemen reigning in Trump, there will be red-hatted Maga idiots cheering Trump on. I expect to see extremely destructive foreign policy if God forbid Trump is elected again.
https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1718909125206200774?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Poor old Anas, from vital part of Labour’s impending victory hero to junior zero in a few weeks.
Some on the Israeli right will welcome this, and invite Jews to leave Dagestan for Israel. Strange bedfellows.
Remember what Amalek did to you on the way as you came out of Egypt,
How he attacked you on the way when you were faint and weary, and cut off your tail, those who were lagging behind you, and he did not fear God.
Therefore when the Lord your God has given you rest from all your enemies around you, in the land that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance to possess, you shall blot out the memory of Amalek from under heaven; you shall not forget.
The similarities in terms of surprise attacks are clear, and it's clearly meant as encouraging the elimination of Hamas, not indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Israelis listening would understand it as such.
As for the Palestinians well yes also. They elected Hamas in 2006 and have to live with the consequences.
That said, if we were to google it I bet I could find some Israeli peace groups dedicated to, er, peace with the Palestinians. I might just do it now because I am interested in how many Palestinian peace groups there are.
Encouraging antisemitism may be a convenient way for the Putinists to distract the large population — suffering some of the highest unemployment in the country — from protesting against Moscow. However, it is reported that Ilya Ponomarev, a Putin opponent who was involved in the anti-mobilisation protests, has also been involved in pushing these antisemitic protests. Putin’s guy in Dagestan spoke out against this attack.
A Russian war correspondent (therefore pro-Putin) said, "those who want to kill Jews should go to Gaza or Kyiv. I know the address of one, I can tell you: Bankova, 11 [Ukrainian President’s address].”
Chechnya is mostly Chechen. Dagestan is mostly Muslim, but it’s very ethnically diverse. It’s always been a mixed population.
The British General Election of 1997
By David Butler, Dennis Kavanagh
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=B9GwCwAAQBAJ&pg=PA122&lpg=PA122#v=onepage&q&f=false
To try harder next time. See ISIS etc
Had the Israelis not been so belligerent and concentrated on the humanitarian side as the Americans did then the anti Israel rhetoric would have been much more muted. Since then it has all been about what pain they can cause to the Gazans and that has alienated even their friends
As PM of Israel what would you have done on October 7th?