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In just a month Sunak sees a massive drop in his ratings – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    AlsoLei said:

    I found this bit of Section 10 (Interpretation) to be interesting:

    (3)For the purposes of this Act a dog shall be regarded as dangerously out of control on any occasion on which there are grounds for reasonable apprehension that it will injure any person[F2 or assistance dog ], whether or not it actually does so, but references to a dog injuring a person[F3 or assistance dog ] or there being grounds for reasonable apprehension that it will do so do not include references to any case in which the dog is being used for a lawful purpose by a constable or a person in the service of the Crown.

    Which is much broader than I would have expected. I can see why people use the Dangerous Dogs Act as an example of poor legislation - sweeping powers with no clear direction on who's responsible for enforcing them.

    It's interesting that, for all Sunak's recent bandwagon-jumping, he has completely failed to announce any additional funding for local authority dog wardens.
    I wouldn't like to be a RSPCA/SSPCA/Battersea Dogs' Home/Dog Aid Society volunteer, either.
  • MattW said:

    In its way that's quite funny.

    The default speed limit is the only one that does not need any signs !

    The ones they are vandalising are likely to be the ones relating to existing 20mph zones that they say are acceptable.

    20mph is the new default speed limit, so if you are driving on a residential road with no speed signage, you must assume that the limit is 20mph
    https://www.thecarexpert.co.uk/the-wales-20mph-speed-limit/
    Actually that is not true

    They are displayed whenever the speed drops from 30 or even 40 and are the new 20mph zones not previous ones

    And let me reiterate, i do not support any vandalism and the way this must be resolved is through the Senedd and LAs addressing local concerns and any suggestions otherwise is unacceptable
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,218
    As someone who lives in Wales, my only comment on the 20mph speed limit is that when I first heard about it, I thought it was a bit "Doing something for the sake of being different to England", but now it's happened, I'm not too fussed, and will probably be used to it soon.

    Now can we talk about something less controversial? Like the effect of listening to Radiohead while eating a pineapple pizza on people's views on Brexit?
  • Carnyx said:

    CGT on all inheritances, as being capital transfers. And there would be a cast iron argument for that. Moreover, as the parental home would not be the residence ofd the transferee ...
    Actually that's not bad. Less than the 40% but applied to all. But ditch most of the exemptions e.g. rich who hand on plots of trees.

    Oh wait. Isn't this the "death tax" that the tories and daily mail destroyed towards the end of iirc Brown's premiership???

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Actually that is not true

    They are displayed whenever the speed drops from 30 or even 40 and are the new 20mph zones not previous ones

    And let me reiterate, i do not support any vandalism and the way this must be resolved is through the Senedd and LAs addressing local concerns and any suggestions otherwise is unacceptable
    Sorry to have hurt your feelings. I wasn't being serious, but apologies anyway. On my second glass of rose while waiting for the potatoes to soften ...
  • My better half has a theory that dog owners tend to look a bit like their dogs and share similar characteristics and behaviour - and vice versa. I think she may have a point.
    I used to know a civil servant who worked on the 1991 Dangerous Dogs Act. She said a lot of work went into identifying the breeds most likely to be owned by Labour voters or those not registered to vote and to avoid banning breeds likely to be owned by middle class Conservative voters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Actually that's not bad. Less than the 40% but applied to all. But ditch most of the exemptions e.g. rich who hand on plots of trees.

    Oh wait. Isn't this the "death tax" that the tories and daily mail destroyed towards the end of iirc Brown's premiership???

    Intderestingly, agricultural land is exempt from CGT.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    As an accidental landlord my view is it is great that there is a programme pushing the rental sector towards much more energy efficiency.

    But... government needs to meet half way over costs. Because they are not mandating owner-occupiers to do all this remedial work in their own homes so it seems a little unfair to say 'only landlords must do this'.

    When the minimum EPC was last raised in 2018 there were grants and subsidised finance schemes available, and a price cap of £3,500 - if meeting the standard would cost more than that, an exemption would be granted. That feels like "meeting halfway to me".

    I do agree about the importance of encouraging owner-occupiers to keep up. I guess the main point of leverage there will be from mortgage providers who will want to know that the property can be rented out if the buyer's circumstances change.

    From the graph that @MattW posted earlier in the thread, it does look like owner-occupiers have tracked quite closely to private landlords so far: both have risen by about 20 points (two rating bands) since the beginning of the century.
  • CatMan said:

    As someone who lives in Wales, my only comment on the 20mph speed limit is that when I first heard about it, I thought it was a bit "Doing something for the sake of being different to England", but now it's happened, I'm not too fussed, and will probably be used to it soon.

    Now can we talk about something less controversial? Like the effect of listening to Radiohead while eating a pineapple pizza on people's views on Brexit?

    If you must eat pizza while driving, everyone will be safer if you're doing it at lower speeds.
  • SNP MSPs have been reprimanded by their chief whip for going Awol during by-election campaigning in Rutherglen after being excused from parliament to canvass voters.

    In a leaked message from the party’s WhatsApp group, Rona Mackay warns colleagues to make the “crucial by-election” their “top priority” after lamenting the failure of MSPs to turn up to campaign.

    The SNP is operating a rota that allows MSPs to miss Holyrood sessions to electioneer in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, the former seat of Margaret Ferrier, who was ousted via a recall petition after breach of Covid rules.

    Despite a recent upturn in support for the SNP in a Times YouGov poll, the bookmakers have Labour candidate Michael Shanks as the strong odds-on favourite, with the SNP’s Katy Loudon at 8-1 and the Conservative candidate, Thomas Kerr, at 50-1.

    In Mackay’s message, posted on Friday and leaked to The Sunday Times, she rebuked the entire Scottish parliament group after only a handful turned up to Rutherglen.

    “Folks, as you know I’m slipping two groups every parliamentary day to go to Rutherglen,” she wrote. “On Wednesday, there were two MSPs there, myself and a minister. I understand three members were there yesterday. Please be clear you are only being slipped for the by-election . . . We’re less than two weeks away from this crucial by-election. Please make it your top priority.”

    With less than a fortnight until polling, one veteran SNP MP has described the ground campaign in Rutherglen as “the worst-supported in any by-election by ordinary activists in living memory, with mainly MPs, MSPs, councillors and party staffers doing the legwork”.

    A SNP spokesman said that members from across Scotland were uniting to lead a “positive campaign” to elect Loudon as the “real alternative to Westminster’s cost of living crisis”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rutherglen-by-election-snp-chief-whip-rebukes-msps-for-going-awol-during-campaign-s3hwg3gs9
  • Double glazed sash and other repro windows exist. No plastic involved.


    There are insulation options for period properties - internal - that while thinner and more expensive, do actually work.

    Edit: if 70 windows are only leaking £41 worth of heat, then you should have them examined by experts. Those 70 windows are a revolution in insulation, just by themselves.
    Of just go to Storm Windows who specialise in period properties
  • Carnyx said:

    Sorry to have hurt your feelings. I wasn't being serious, but apologies anyway. On my second glass of rose while waiting for the potatoes to soften ...
    Thank you and it is appreciated

    I consider the vandalism to be counter productive and there is a genuine case for a revision to some roads whilst retaining the legislation

    I have already stated I do not support the conservative party on this and just want common sense to break out
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,662
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Sorry to have hurt your feelings. I wasn't being serious, but apologies anyway. On my second glass of rose while waiting for the potatoes to soften ...
    Correct, @Big_G_NorthWales - I added a "what about at the edge of town?" as an update.

    I'd be interested in the dot and tittle on that one, since a painted out sign at the start of a "default" zone makes it ambiguous for some distance.

    The speed limit won't be the same as before the start of the default zone (lamp posts, no repeater signs), since aiui a non-default speed limit requires repeater signs showing the non-default speed limit at an interval of iirc a maximum 400m.

    So I'd say that 400m inside a default speed-limit zone with a painted out sign, it is clear that the default limit applies because of the lack of repeater signs saying something else.

    They *could*, but won't, do it like STOP and GIVEWAY signs and give the 20mph sign a unique shape such that it can be understood when obscured.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941
    edited September 2023

    But what does the vandalism show?

    Only that the number of people angry enough about this to go out with spray paint is greater than zero.

    See also: people vandalising ULEZ cameras.

    We don't get much political graffiti in the UK. Probably for the best. But when I was in Spain, there was loads. Mostly by miniscule parties nobody had head of. Graffiti and vandalism tell us nothing about What The People Think.
    They think Emily is a slag if round here is owt to go by.
  • Is the sentence for Causing Death By Dangerous Driving different for that for Manslaughter?

    If so, why?
  • Just watched an hour of Barbie, and then turned it off.

    What a pile of shite.
  • Carnyx said:

    Intderestingly, agricultural land is exempt from CGT.
    Why am I not surprised.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    edited September 2023

    Thank you and it is appreciated

    I consider the vandalism to be counter productive and there is a genuine case for a revision to some roads whilst retaining the legislation

    I have already stated I do not support the conservative party on this and just want common sense to break out
    Common sense and Welsh politics have been strangers for literally centuries.

    Cromwell tried to introduce them in 1536 with the Laws in Wales Acts but even that was buggered when Henry gave Haverfordwest its own MP. And since then - nothing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,662
    edited September 2023

    Is the sentence for Causing Death By Dangerous Driving different for that for Manslaughter?

    If so, why?

    Max sentence was different until last year; now Causing Death by Dangerous Driving can also carry a life sentence. Not sure about low end sentences.

    There may be interesting differences in aggravating and mitigating factors I expect, but I don't think updated sentencing guidelines for CDDD are published yet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941

    Just watched an hour of Barbie, and then turned it off.

    What a pile of shite.

    Life in plastic.
    Not fantastic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    dixiedean said:

    They think Emily is a slag if round here is owt to go by.
    Really? I would never have thought it of Thornberry.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    We have my mother in law staying this weekend, I've managed to wriggle out of dinner because my daughter is feeling poorly and someone had to stay home with her. I've never known half a day to drag for so long.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Why am I not surprised.
    If it wasn't people would build on it.
  • Just watched an hour of Barbie, and then turned it off.

    What a pile of shite.

    Budget $128–145 million
    Box office $1.419 billion

    Well, someone certainly likes it... :)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,651
    Am unlikely couple to my mind - but whatever.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-66902886

    "Coogan and Vorderman back Liberal Democrats' electoral reform pledge

    Actor Steve Coogan and presenter Carol Vorderman have backed Liberal Democrat pledges to reform how the UK's general elections are run.

    The Lib Dems have long called for first past the post (FPTP) to be replaced with proportional representation (PR).

    Vorderman said the current system fails to deliver parliaments that "properly reflect the will of the nation".

    Coogan also backed the Lib Dems' campaign, and said "millions of people's voices go unheard".

    Their pre-recorded video messages were screened at a party rally in Bournemouth."
  • What a shitty father the King is.

    The Duke of Sussex must give due notice if he wishes to stay on a royal estate, The Telegraph understands, after he was denied a room at Windsor Castle earlier this month.

    The Duke flew to London for the WellChild Awards, an annual charity event that this year fell on the eve of the first anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II’s death.

    Having established that it would be impossible to see his father due to their diary commitments and because the King was at Balmoral, the Duke asked if he could instead stay at Windsor Castle.

    The arrangement would have enabled him to easily visit his grandmother’s resting place at St George’s Chapel, Windsor, the following day, which he also asked if he could do.

    The visit was the Duke’s first since the Sussexes were evicted from Frogmore Cottage, their former Windsor home. It means they are now “homeless” when on UK soil and must ask permission from Buckingham Palace to stay on one of the royal estates.

    Royal sources have stressed that such provision will be made where possible but that the palace must be given suitable warning of any such visit.

    The Duke is next expecting to be in the UK in January, when his claim against News Group Newspapers, the publisher of The Sun, for alleged unlawful information gathering is due to be heard at the High Court.

    The Duke’s office first contacted Buckingham Palace after confirming his attendance at the WellChild Awards.

    It said the Duke would love to see his father and stay with him if at all possible.

    However, he was told he would have to put in a formal request. It is unclear whether the King was aware of such correspondence
    .



    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/09/23/prince-harry-notice-royal-estate-windsor-castle-balmoral/

    Son visits but King already booked to be away.

    Son asks to stay and told he needs to apply via the normal process for minor royals

    Not seeing anything wrong. Just a bureaucracy related to a big organisation
  • Budget $128–145 million
    Box office $1.419 billion

    Well, someone certainly likes it... :)
    I quite enjoyed it tbh
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709
    No updates on the SNP police investigation for a while.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    carnforth said:

    No updates on the SNP police investigation for a while.

    Perhaps amnesia is catching and they've forgotten they're investigating?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,651
    carnforth said:

    No updates on the SNP police investigation for a while.

    When is their party conference? Might be timing it to make a splash.

    In an entirely non-attention-seeking way.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    ohnotnow said:

    Am unlikely couple to my mind - but whatever.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-66902886

    "Coogan and Vorderman back Liberal Democrats' electoral reform pledge

    Actor Steve Coogan and presenter Carol Vorderman have backed Liberal Democrat pledges to reform how the UK's general elections are run.

    The Lib Dems have long called for first past the post (FPTP) to be replaced with proportional representation (PR).

    Vorderman said the current system fails to deliver parliaments that "properly reflect the will of the nation".

    Coogan also backed the Lib Dems' campaign, and said "millions of people's voices go unheard".

    Their pre-recorded video messages were screened at a party rally in Bournemouth."

    Lucky for the Lib Dem’s that they chose Coogan as their comedian supporter rather than Russell Brand as Coogan is whiter than white behaviour wise.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709
    ohnotnow said:

    Am unlikely couple to my mind - but whatever.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-66902886

    "Coogan and Vorderman back Liberal Democrats' electoral reform pledge

    Actor Steve Coogan and presenter Carol Vorderman have backed Liberal Democrat pledges to reform how the UK's general elections are run.

    The Lib Dems have long called for first past the post (FPTP) to be replaced with proportional representation (PR).

    Vorderman said the current system fails to deliver parliaments that "properly reflect the will of the nation".

    Coogan also backed the Lib Dems' campaign, and said "millions of people's voices go unheard".

    Their pre-recorded video messages were screened at a party rally in Bournemouth."

    The lib dem position on this appears to have evolved from holding a referendum, to simply a manifesto promise, followed by the vote of a coalition parliament. I do hope that's not just because they lost the last referendum on the topic.
  • ohnotnow said:

    When is their party conference? Might be timing it to make a splash.

    In an entirely non-attention-seeking way.
    15‐17 October 2023.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Is the sentence for Causing Death By Dangerous Driving different for that for Manslaughter?

    If so, why?

    DDD was brought in years ago when juries were unwilling to convict drivers on manslaughter charges. Sentencing is on a different basis but DDD sentences have risen in recent years.

  • Budget $128–145 million
    Box office $1.419 billion

    Well, someone certainly likes it... :)
    We paid £19.99 to see what the fuss was all about.

    A lot in that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,662
    edited September 2023
    AlsoLei said:

    When the minimum EPC was last raised in 2018 there were grants and subsidised finance schemes available, and a price cap of £3,500 - if meeting the standard would cost more than that, an exemption would be granted. That feels like "meeting halfway to me".

    I do agree about the importance of encouraging owner-occupiers to keep up. I guess the main point of leverage there will be from mortgage providers who will want to know that the property can be rented out if the buyer's circumstances change.

    From the graph that @MattW posted earlier in the thread, it does look like owner-occupiers have tracked quite closely to private landlords so far: both have risen by about 20 points (two rating bands) since the beginning of the century.
    I'd argue two points:

    1 - That LLs have actually caught up. The previous big change was The Housing Act 2005, which introduced all kinds of things like LL licensing and the HHSRS (Housing Health and Safety Rating System).

    The HHSRS is a HUGE massively comprehensive Brobdingnagian thing - several hundred pages, and council staff are expected to administer it with minimal training, so it can go badly wrong very easily.

    2 - That the OO sector is in 2 strata:

    a) 2-2.5 million newbuilds over the recent 15 year period that have high ratings, which are usually not sold to landlords by developer decision and are well ahead of the PRS average, flattering the OO sector average. Similar but smaller differences apply to newbuilds since perhaps 1995 or 2000.

    b) Older stock in the OO sector which are unregulated and have therefore fallen behind the PRS. These are the biggest energy drag, as there are far more of them than poor PRS stock.

    One structural reason for b) is that it is now an offence to rent out EPC F properties so these have all been renovated, have exited the PRS to the OO sector, or are being rented out illegally.

    (Unless the stupid bugger is going to reverse that as well)
  • Meanwhile, this is bad...

    EXCL - Fears are growing inside Downing Street for the health of beloved chief mouser Larry the cat

    No10 officials drawing up emergency PR plan on how to break the news to the nation when the ailing moggy does pass away


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1705664856660021551
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,759
    carnforth said:

    The lib dem position on this appears to have evolved from holding a referendum, to simply a manifesto promise, followed by the vote of a coalition parliament. I do hope that's not just because they lost the last referendum on the topic.
    Johnson showed that you can change voting systems on a partisan whim. So why not?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709

    Johnson showed that you can change voting systems on a partisan whim. So why not?
    Do you mean voter ID, or something else?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    This was David Blunkett's idea.

    "'Torture sentences' that consign some of Britain's most wronged prisoners to decades behind bars"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2023-09-22/torture-sentences-trap-britains-most-wronged-inmates-behind-bars-for-decades
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    @MattChorley

    The last time we went round the block on abolishing inheritance tax (July) we asked YouGov to poll it.

    Is the priority of just 10% of people, and 16% of Tory voters

    As for the politics, I’m pretty confident that of all the things Team Starmer might struggle to land, I think they’ll be ok with “millionaire’s tax cut”

    @sundersays

    Abolishing inheritance tax outright would be worth up to £290 million to Rishi Sunak's own children - given his wealth of £730 million, and a tax levied at 40% after the first £1 million.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    carnforth said:

    The lib dem position on this appears to have evolved from holding a referendum, to simply a manifesto promise, followed by the vote of a coalition parliament. I do hope that's not just because they lost the last referendum on the topic.
    Fine. Boris and Dom have shown the way. This is the new world. Get PR done.

    Once proper PR (ie STV which is self-evidently the best all round system, not some AV shit) is in place nobody’s going to reverse it, because as a voting system it’s superior.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709
    Scott_xP said:


    @MattChorley

    The last time we went round the block on abolishing inheritance tax (July) we asked YouGov to poll it.

    Is the priority of just 10% of people, and 16% of Tory voters

    As for the politics, I’m pretty confident that of all the things Team Starmer might struggle to land, I think they’ll be ok with “millionaire’s tax cut”

    @sundersays

    Abolishing inheritance tax outright would be worth up to £290 million to Rishi Sunak's own children - given his wealth of £730 million, and a tax levied at 40% after the first £1 million.

    Big difference between "is not my priority" and "I disagree with it".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    dixiedean said:

    Life in plastic.
    Not fantastic.
    Very frustrating without genitalia, I expect.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    carnforth said:

    The lib dem position on this appears to have evolved from holding a referendum, to simply a manifesto promise, followed by the vote of a coalition parliament. I do hope that's not just because they lost the last referendum on the topic.
    There’s never been a referendum on PR. There’s been one on AV, which isn’t proportional,
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    Scott_xP said:


    @MattChorley

    The last time we went round the block on abolishing inheritance tax (July) we asked YouGov to poll it.

    Is the priority of just 10% of people, and 16% of Tory voters

    As for the politics, I’m pretty confident that of all the things Team Starmer might struggle to land, I think they’ll be ok with “millionaire’s tax cut”

    @sundersays

    Abolishing inheritance tax outright would be worth up to £290 million to Rishi Sunak's own children - given his wealth of £730 million, and a tax levied at 40% after the first £1 million.

    Do you think the Sunak family wealth is in their name/bank account and so vulnerable to inheritance tax? Considering the majority, vast majority, is in trusts and not actually “their” money. Apparently we don’t want cynical politics that uses fake numbers to make a political point after the 2030/35 issue.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    carnforth said:

    Do you mean voter ID, or something else?
    FPTP for mayoral and PCCs came in under Johnson.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,759
    edited September 2023
    carnforth said:

    Do you mean voter ID, or something else?
    I was referencing the FPTP change for majors and PCCs, looking at the 2019 manifesto it states

    "We will continue to support the First
    Past the Post system of voting, as it
    allows voters to kick out politicians
    who don’t deliver, both locally and
    nationally."

    so not explicit in their intentions :/.

    But yes, voter ID is the bigun.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709

    I was referencing the FPTP change for majors and PCCs, looking at the 2019 manifesto it states

    "We will continue to support the First
    Past the Post system of voting, as it
    allows voters to kick out politicians
    who don’t deliver, both locally and
    nationally."

    so not explicit in there intentions :/.

    But yes, voter ID is the bigun.
    Fair enough. Though there is something more sacred about national elections, I would argue.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,709

    There’s never been a referendum on PR. There’s been one on AV, which isn’t proportional,
    Do you think the result would have been different?
  • Scott_xP said:


    @MattChorley

    The last time we went round the block on abolishing inheritance tax (July) we asked YouGov to poll it.

    Is the priority of just 10% of people, and 16% of Tory voters

    As for the politics, I’m pretty confident that of all the things Team Starmer might struggle to land, I think they’ll be ok with “millionaire’s tax cut”

    @sundersays

    Abolishing inheritance tax outright would be worth up to £290 million to Rishi Sunak's own children - given his wealth of £730 million, and a tax levied at 40% after the first £1 million.

    You see, whenever an opinion former writes a piece like that about the polling on the "priority", rather than support for the actual underlying policy, you know the core numbers aren't good for them.

    We used to see the same, regularly, on here about the Mori index to frame that "no-one cares about Europe" (TM) before the referendum.
  • isam said:

    I wonder when his critics will admit that getting rid of Boris was a catastrophic error. I know people like to look to challenge the obvious, but ousting a charismatic incumbent who is a proven winner (you can add Cameron to Mayor Livingstone & Corbyn) only to see a humongous slide in the VI polls while both replacements personal ratings
    tank, is a ricket of biblical proportions
    The Tories were behind in the polls for SEVEN months BEFORE Boris resigned.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Scott_xP said:
    Tbh it just seems Sunak is having some sort of insular argument with himself. Blue wall will hate his net zero stuff. Red wall and the north will feel aggrieved by possible HS2 cut. Inheritance tax - effects such a small proportion of us. Guessing it’s the right in the party pulling the strings
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    Scott_xP said:


    @MattChorley

    The last time we went round the block on abolishing inheritance tax (July) we asked YouGov to poll it.

    Is the priority of just 10% of people, and 16% of Tory voters

    As for the politics, I’m pretty confident that of all the things Team Starmer might struggle to land, I think they’ll be ok with “millionaire’s tax cut”

    @sundersays

    Abolishing inheritance tax outright would be worth up to £290 million to Rishi Sunak's own children - given his wealth of £730 million, and a tax levied at 40% after the first £1 million.

    Sorry, I left off a question - are you a liar or just fucking stupid?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    @DavidGauke

    I wrote this in July about why cutting inheritance tax is a bad idea.

    https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/1705643633020399742?s=20
  • Scott_xP said:

    @DavidGauke

    I wrote this in July about why cutting inheritance tax is a bad idea.

    https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/1705643633020399742?s=20

    David Gauke thinks any decision made by a Conservative government without him in it is deluded.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,364
    edited September 2023
    carnforth said:

    Big difference between "is not my priority" and "I disagree with it".
    Up to a point.

    But there is a perception that the government is frantically running round looking for spending to cut.

    And there is a perception that a lot of schools and hospitals are about to fall down

    Doesn't matter how accurate those perceptions are. They're what the public think.

    It's at least possible that a very wealthy and not particularly liked PM running with a tax cut that benefits wealthy people and does naff all for incentives to work...

    ... might be as popular as a bucket of cold sick at an "all you can eat" buffet.
  • carnforth said:

    Do you think the result would have been different?
    I voted against AV precisely because it's non-proportional.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Up to a point.

    But there is a perception that the government is frantically running round looking for spending to cut.

    And there is a perception that a lit of schools and hospitals are about to fall down

    Doesn't matter how accurate those perceptions are. They're what the public think.

    It's at least possible that a very wealthy and not particularly liked PM running with a tax cut that benefits wealthy people and does naff all for incentives to work...

    ... might be as popular as a bucket of cold sick at an "all you can eat" buffet.
    Es\pecially if it emerges how the really wealthy don't really pay it at all. Which raises at least one hypersensitive issue at the current time.
  • Tbh it just seems Sunak is having some sort of insular argument with himself. Blue wall will hate his net zero stuff. Red wall and the north will feel aggrieved by possible HS2 cut. Inheritance tax - effects such a small proportion of us. Guessing it’s the right in the party pulling the strings
    Remember: nothing - absolutely nothing - will be done here without it first being extensively polled and focus grouped. These ideas aren't simply dreamed up on ConHome and then spat out there to see if it sticks.

    There is some political risk in its delivery, and its timing, but also opportunity in how the Opposition may respond, or screw up a response.

    In politics, you think, you test, you make the call, and you place your bets where you can.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Remember: nothing - absolutely nothing - will be done here without it first being extensively polled and focus grouped. These ideas aren't simply dreamed up on ConHome and then spat out there to see if it sticks.

    There is some political risk in its delivery, and its timing, but also opportunity in how the Opposition may respond, or screw up a response.

    In politics, you think, you test, you make the call, and you place your bets where you can.
    Like the last week's chaos?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    TimS said:

    Fine. Boris and Dom have shown the way. This is the new world. Get PR done.

    Once proper PR (ie STV which is self-evidently the best all round system, not some AV shit) is in place nobody’s going to reverse it, because as a voting system it’s superior.
    There seems to be an assumption, because its associated with the LibDems, that PR will lead to a flood of centrists entering parliament and a nice mushy consensus emerging at Westminster.

    In fact, it's far more likely to facilitate the proliferation of populists and extremists, with all the consequences that flow from that. It's a perilous proposal which, in any event, is hardly a priority for many people beyond the self-interested political cadres promoting it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,330

    The Tories were behind in the polls for SEVEN months BEFORE Boris resigned.
    Not as far behind as they are now, and even though he was behind, Boris was whooping Starmer on personality which leads me to believe he could have won back those angry with him. Sunak is tied on personality - the charisma void suits Sir Keir perfectly
  • Carnyx said:

    Like the last week's chaos?
    Besides, it's probably the wrong question.

    At some point in the noughties (under Howard?), there was a study showing that Conservative policies were popular, as long as people didn't know they were Conservative policies.

    Something similar happened with Corbyn's Labour. The individual policies polled well, but people didn't believe the package added up and didn't trust Team Jezza to deliver them.

    Given his personal ratings, I suspect Rishi and the Conservatives have reached the same dismal stage. And the only treatment will be for the public to kick their bottoms into the mid 2030s.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    Apparently the kicking side of rugby is crap and not important.
  • boulay said:

    Apparently the kicking side of rugby is crap and not important.

    FTFY
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941
    boulay said:

    Apparently the kicking side of rugby is crap and not important.

    It's crap but exceptionally important.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    dixiedean said:

    It's crap but exceptionally important.
    Would people be calling SA crap if they had kicked those 11 points and win?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941
    edited September 2023

    Besides, it's probably the wrong question.

    At some point in the noughties (under Howard?), there was a study showing that Conservative policies were popular, as long as people didn't know they were Conservative policies.

    Something similar happened with Corbyn's Labour. The individual policies polled well, but people didn't believe the package added up and didn't trust Team Jezza to deliver them.

    Given his personal ratings, I suspect Rishi and the Conservatives have reached the same dismal stage. And the only treatment will be for the public to kick their bottoms into the mid 2030s.
    It was rather more than that.
    ISTR the public were asked whether they supported policies XYZ?
    They did.
    They were then asked if they supported Conservative Party policy XYZ?
    The very same people didn't just a moment later.
    So it wasn't just "if they didn't know".
    The very act of knowing who proposed a policy made that policy unacceptable.
    It was more active than passive.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    edited September 2023

    There seems to be an assumption, because its associated with the LibDems, that PR will lead to a flood of centrists entering parliament and a nice mushy consensus emerging at Westminster.

    In fact, it's far more likely to facilitate the proliferation of populists and extremists, with all the consequences that flow from that. It's a perilous proposal which, in any event, is hardly a priority for many people beyond the self-interested political cadres promoting it.
    It's almost certain to. If the electoral and party system were PR now, it's doubtful that Keir Starmer would be cruising into government. We'd have an AfD style party and a Corbynite left party representing serious blocs.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Phew! What a match. Well done Ireland
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941
    edited September 2023
    boulay said:

    Would people be calling SA crap if they had kicked those 11 points and win?
    No. But the importance of goalkicking makes the game tedious to the uninitiated.
    Rugby Union fans are raving about this game.
    I'm finding it dull.
    I just don't get excited by two minutes to set a dominant scrum, winning a penalty, then kicking a goal.
    It's 5 minutes of my life I could have back.
    This, incidentally, is why, contrary to the continual insistence of Union fans since 1995, rugby league has shown no signs of dying out.

    Edit.
    See also the thrilling rolling maul...
    Pass the bloody ball!!!!
  • Carnyx said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12544813/XL-Bully-dogs-banned-mass-protest-walk-gentle-breed-Birmingham-huge-backlash.html?ico=related-replace

    Startled by the fact that the organisers have banned Fido and Rover from a march to argue how cuddlesome aforesaid dogs are.
    You can’t imagine recreating this photo with Bully XLs.

    image
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    dixiedean said:

    No. But the importance of goalkicking makes the game tedious to the uninitiated.
    Rugby Union fans are raving about this game.
    I'm finding it dull.
    I just don't get excited by two minutes to set a dominant scrum, winning a penalty, then kicking a goal.
    It's 5 minutes of my life I could have back.
    This, incidentally, is why, contrary to the continual insistence of Union fans since 1995, rugby league has shown no signs of dying out.
    Perhaps not dying out, but it’s hardly expanding. The league World Cup is even more restricted that the Union one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,220
    edited September 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    The arrogance of this. We must not be subject to the same laws that apply to everyone else - even where there is evidence that one of us might have committed a crime.

    And if we don't get our way we'll refuse to do something which may be necessary to keep safe the people we have pledged to serve.
    A few years back I was at a barbecue. A recently retired police officer, in a discussion, rather proudly said that if a firearms officer was ever charged, they’d all turn in their tickets.

    He was shocked at the response from his audience - most went for “sack them without their pensions”. A couple suggested prosecution.

    It was quite interesting - no sympathy from traditional law and order types. The kind of people who would have been on the police side in any case, a few years back.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    You can’t imagine recreating this photo with Bully XLs.

    image
    Those retrievers do appear to have wrecked that house though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Lol no game as dependant on the ref as a close union match. Another ref, maul collapse pen try there.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156

    Those retrievers do appear to have wrecked that house though.
    Can you imagine the state of the trees for miles around with poo bags hanging from them like some terrible Christmas display.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    FTFY
    Trying to remember, is there any team sport you like Sunil?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,508

    It's almost certain to. If the electoral and party system were PR now, it's doubtful that Keir Starmer would be cruising into government. We'd have an AfD style party and a Corbynite left party representing serious blocs.
    Yes PR is great for extremists and cranks, which makes it all the more ironic how many centrist dads back it.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited September 2023

    Remember: nothing - absolutely nothing - will be done here without it first being extensively polled and focus grouped. These ideas aren't simply dreamed up on ConHome and then spat out there to see if it sticks.

    There is some political risk in its delivery, and its timing, but also opportunity in how the Opposition may respond, or screw up a response.

    In politics, you think, you test, you make the call, and you place your bets where you can.
    I think most think it’s an unfair tax . It’s a form of double taxation . The problem for Sunak is there are so many areas that could do with the amount of money it could cost and it smacks of desperation. And in terms of priorities how do you stand there and justify it when schools are crumbling etc .

    The opposition should simply frame it as the country not being able to afford it when there are other pressing needs . I think that’s the safest line .
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,156
    Ireland won’t win the World Cup because they are doing a lap of honour with their kids after winning a group game. It’s a group game and not the final.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Cyclefree said:

    The arrogance of this. We must not be subject to the same laws that apply to everyone else - even where there is evidence that one of us might have committed a crime.

    And if we don't get our way we'll refuse to do something which may be necessary to keep safe the people we have pledged to serve.
    Has any footage of this incident come out. From what I can gather Kaba was using his vehicle as a weapon. If that's the case then it's a legitimate release if I'm on the jury
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941
    edited September 2023

    Perhaps not dying out, but it’s hardly expanding. The league World Cup is even more restricted that the Union one.
    Yes but.
    League has always been a hyper local club game.
    Internationals have never been important.
    No League fan would put up with the sheer number of stoppages for injuries, scrums and kicks at goal.*

    *I actually love rugby. Both Union and League. Played both to a very high youth standard, before injuries (and drugs, sex and booze got in the way).

    Just find Union very frustrating.
    Don't think Union fans in general realise why the average non-rugby punter won't think that was entertaining.
  • carnforth said:

    Do you think the result would have been different?
    Well, I would have voted for PR instead of against AV.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    The 3 most gentle dog breeds, according to this article, are:

    Cavalier King Charles Spaniel
    Golden Retriever
    St Bernard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/real-life/article-12342477/canine-behaviouralist-atherton-dogs-easy-train-gentle-golden-retriever-border-collie.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,941
    Fishing said:

    Yes PR is great for extremists and cranks, which makes it all the more ironic how many centrist dads back it.
    One wonders why the Tory Party opposes it so vehemently, then?

  • lintolinto Posts: 45
    Cyclefree said:

    The arrogance of this. We must not be subject to the same laws that apply to everyone else - even where there is evidence that one of us might have committed a crime.

    And if we don't get our way we'll refuse to do something which may be necessary to keep safe the people we have pledged to serve.
    FFS They need to grow up and accept that they must be seen to be subject to the law. Horrible as it is for the officer being charged the family of Kaba is suffering more.
    But yet another example of the Mets institutional arrogance. And they wonder why the force is reviled by the rest of UK policing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    Scott_xP said:

    @DavidGauke

    I wrote this in July about why cutting inheritance tax is a bad idea.

    https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/1705643633020399742?s=20

    Why should Tories care that Gauke opposes cutting IHT given he stood as an independent in 2019?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    Scott_xP said:


    @MattChorley

    The last time we went round the block on abolishing inheritance tax (July) we asked YouGov to poll it.

    Is the priority of just 10% of people, and 16% of Tory voters

    As for the politics, I’m pretty confident that of all the things Team Starmer might struggle to land, I think they’ll be ok with “millionaire’s tax cut”

    @sundersays

    Abolishing inheritance tax outright would be worth up to £290 million to Rishi Sunak's own children - given his wealth of £730 million, and a tax levied at 40% after the first £1 million.

    A Yougov poll last year found 48% of voters want to abolish IHT completely (including 60% of Conservative voters) just 37% opposed.

    63% of voters also want to raise the threshold at which it is levied from £325k
    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-support-raising-iht-threshold-above-325k-despite-eyewatering-public-finance-decisions-ahead
  • HYUFD said:

    Why should Tories care that Gauke opposes cutting IHT given he stood as an independent in 2019?
    Give us a clue as to why he stood as an independent in 2019.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    nico679 said:

    The UK IHT is very fair compared to many other countries . Reducing it which will cost billions whilst social care is collapsing sums up this government.

    Where are the Tories going to find all this money to deliver their desperate election bribes or are those questions only relevant to the opposition parties ?

    No it isn't, some countries like Australia and Sweden have abolished it completely and in the US Federal income tax isn't paid for estates under about $10 million.

    This will be in the Tory manifesto as a goodie for the bluewall in particular if they re elect the Tories
  • The Bank of England's bond sell off has cost the Treasury £24bn in the past year, and they plan to sell £100bn of bonds over the course of next year. This is profligacy on an unimaginable scale - imagine Sunak announcing a policy that would cost the taxpayer £24bn?

    This programme needs to be signed off by Hunt, so why is he insisting there is 'no possibility of tax cuts' when he's happy to piss these sorts of sums up the wall at the Bank's behest?

    John Redwood asks why.
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2023/09/23/tghe-bank-of-england-is-wrong-to-keep-selling-bonds-at-big-losses/
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    HYUFD said:

    A Yougov poll last year found 48% of voters want to abolish IHT completely (including 60% of Conservative voters) just 37% opposed.

    63% of voters also want to raise the threshold at which it is levied from £325k
    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/our-news/press-releases/yougov-poll-shows-majority-support-raising-iht-threshold-above-325k-despite-eyewatering-public-finance-decisions-ahead
    A lot of people think they’re going to be effected when in reality it’s a tiny proportion of estates that qualify . This of course helps the Tories . I think it’s more difficult in the current climate to do this though .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069

    What a shitty father the King is.

    The Duke of Sussex must give due notice if he wishes to stay on a royal estate, The Telegraph understands, after he was denied a room at Windsor Castle earlier this month.

    The Duke flew to London for the WellChild Awards, an annual charity event that this year fell on the eve of the first anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II’s death.

    Having established that it would be impossible to see his father due to their diary commitments and because the King was at Balmoral, the Duke asked if he could instead stay at Windsor Castle.

    The arrangement would have enabled him to easily visit his grandmother’s resting place at St George’s Chapel, Windsor, the following day, which he also asked if he could do.

    The visit was the Duke’s first since the Sussexes were evicted from Frogmore Cottage, their former Windsor home. It means they are now “homeless” when on UK soil and must ask permission from Buckingham Palace to stay on one of the royal estates.

    Royal sources have stressed that such provision will be made where possible but that the palace must be given suitable warning of any such visit.

    The Duke is next expecting to be in the UK in January, when his claim against News Group Newspapers, the publisher of The Sun, for alleged unlawful information gathering is due to be heard at the High Court.

    The Duke’s office first contacted Buckingham Palace after confirming his attendance at the WellChild Awards.

    It said the Duke would love to see his father and stay with him if at all possible.

    However, he was told he would have to put in a formal request. It is unclear whether the King was aware of such correspondence
    .


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/09/23/prince-harry-notice-royal-estate-windsor-castle-balmoral/

    Why? It was Harry's decision to give up being a UK working royal for a mansion in California.

    There is no reason he should get state apartments on tap now, if he wants to visit the UK he can get a hotel room like other US based tourists
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    But isn't that a subsidy for landlords? And plenty of MP landlords, especially (but not only) Tories.
    @Carnyx They have no option other than to create a subsidy for landlords because otherwise local authorities have to fund temporary housing for those at risk of homelessness at even greater cost, and now local authorities are going bankrupt because of this.

    Basically the whole policy area (housing) is in a mess with no answer. We are on the 16th housing minister since 2010.
This discussion has been closed.