So will Americans back a criminal for President? – politicalbetting.com
So will Americans back a criminal for President? – politicalbetting.com
On the face of it we are heading for a Trump Biden rerun in the 2024 presidential election. It would appear that the only way that 81 year-old Joe can defend the presidency is if his opponent is Trump.
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https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1695496611118338420/photo/1
While it's true that Trump would likely be his easiest opponent to beat, Mike's apparent certainty that's the "only way" Biden can defend the presidency seems overblown to me.
If Trump's criminal cases deny him the nomination - and FWIW I think they will - much then rests on who then gets picked.
The front runners are likely to be almost as unpalatable to swing voters on the wedge issues - and are not going to encourage a Democratic base unenthusiastic about Biden to stay at home.
Lab lead = 15 points (was 17 points in previous BMG poll in late July).
Unable to see individual party shares as behind paywall.
The growth in the money going to the middlemen is quite astonishing, and gets very little notice compared to "pharma profits".
BIG INSURANCE 2022: Revenues reached $1.25 trillion thanks to sucking billions out of the pharmacy supply chain – and taxpayers' pockets
https://wendellpotter.substack.com/p/big-insurance-2022-revenues-reached
For GOP voters that just proves that the hated librul woke elite is out to get them. So they will Bobby Sands him all the way.
If the GOP grows a brain and declares the criminal and his cabal to be ineligible, won't the selectorate do all they can to select the "Trump was Framed' candidate? And then face GOP voters doing Trump as a write-in?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66636347
Good. It's not as if the police have anything else to do except read X for hate speech so why not bolster the Home Secretary's chance of replacing Rishi Sunak?
Where Suella Braverman might have a point is where the victim has done the work for them and isolated the relevant 10 seconds of doorcam footage but it is simply impractical for police to collect cctv footage from up and down the street and spend weeks reviewing it. Police simply do not have the resources to investigate every crime as if it is a murder. Who even will visit every victim?
What the government needs is for the MoJ to reduce court delays because if naughty boys are simply bailed for a year, there can be no deterrence. They, and as importantly, their friends will see there are no adverse consequences for low-level and increasingly high-level crime, at least in the short term and in the long run we are all dead.
It's hard to put numbers in it, but there are Trump cultists, Trump haters, and those who might like what he peddles, but would be fine with someone else delivering it if they have a better chance of being elected.
If Trump isn't the candidate, the the GOP needs someone extreme enough to get the cultists to turn out, yet moderate enough not to completely alienate the centre.
I'm not convinced that's possible.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bright-pupils-get-better-gcses-at-comprehensive-schools-jvqnw2g6x?shareToken=eb3653ab1debdeb63c658b81c7337dd8
“Do you support the reception of thousands of irregular migrants from the Middle East and Africa by the forced relocation scheme imposed by the EU bureaucrats”
Top brass may want rid of Trump, their voters do not. Whilst I cannot conceive how Trump would win (as he needs either a Biden collapse or millions to vote for him who didn't last time), I can't see how the party gets a better result with another candidate.
And lets be honest. Mining the shitkicker vote does the GOP well. If a load of angry and stupid people are whipped up to fear the librul wome elite machine which is stealing the election, then they're likely to stay in your camp and keep giving you donations.
A recent paper studying prison populations seems to demonstrate that the level of viral exposure does determine to some extent whether or not an individual gets infected with Covid.
Evidence of 'leaky' protection following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in an incarcerated population
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40750-8
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/27/tory-councillor-arrested-racial-hate-crime-anthony-stevens/
Their problem is analogous to that of the Tories with Brexit.
They've gone all in on one thing, and it's alienated the majority of the electorate - but there's no easy way too step away from it without alienating those who still believe.
I don't think it can win the general election..
I don’t find it inconceivable a local politician like this hasnt heard of them.
If it was an MP that would be different.
I think the problem for Trump is not that he's a crook, but that he tried to upset their beloved Constitution.
Americans will never forgive that.
From my time chairing our Town Council, I remember one guy who thought another councillor shouldn’t be allowed to vote on any environmental issues because she was a member of the Green Party and therefore it was a conflict of interest.
Or another guy who voted against an installation of some stained glass swifts on a public building by the town’s Arts Society because “I went to Rio de Janeiro once and it was full of graffiti and I didn’t like it”.
Mr. Bondegezou, while I agree this is a case of having a headline not a real policy, this is far from the first time we've had governmeny by headline.
We seem to spend an awful lot of money to get threadbare and barely functional services. Where does all the money go...?
'The Mayoress thought she needed to have a word with George's father about this. George's father was over ninety, but he had a lot more sense than George.'
Sometimes, all at the same time.
(Bigger picture is decades of too much borrowing for immediate consumption and not enough saving or investment. Those decisions are pretty much bound to bite us on the bum at some point, and that point looks like it's about now. And there's little point complaining to current politicians, because the relevant decisions were taken by us/our parents/our grandparents long ago.)
https://www.oxfordshireindependent.com/p/some-oxfordshire-children-with-special-needs
(To be fair to Oxfordshire County Council, its current administration absolutely recognises the problem and is trying to fix it. The previous administration didn’t.)
Toby Young, director of the Free Speech Union, said: “Northamptonshire police have made a serious mistake in this case. Defending free speech isn’t a crime and Cllr Stevens should never have been arrested, let alone held in custody for nine hours. This episode highlights the need for the police to receive proper free speech training.”
A Northamptonshire Police spokesman said: “On Aug 2, Northamptonshire Police received a report of a hate crime regarding posts made on social media.
“In response, a 50-year-old man was arrested on the morning of Aug 7 on suspicion of distributing written material to stir up racial hatred. He has been released on bail pending further enquiries.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/27/tory-councillor-arrested-racial-hate-crime-anthony-stevens/
I just cannot see why this is a police matter.
https://archive.ph/Lq6MU
IMO It's fairly bizarre behaviour by the Northants police.
Some years ago, the council removed a small playground from a piece of ground shut round the corner from where I lived. It was relocated from our ward to one where the locals had voted for the ruling group on the council.
No money to keep it up, apparently. Then a neighbour mentioned that she was an ex-Economist journalist and asked for interviews.
£30,000 was discovered in spare council funds, overnight, and a brand new playground installed.
The area of this playground was about 10 meters by 10 meters, with half a dozen play items. Most of them quite simple - a seesaw etc..,
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/aug/28/english-regions-dominated-by-grammar-schools-do-not-improve-grades-study-says
"The authors said their evidence suggested there was no case for further expansion of grammar schools in England, and a strong argument for the dismantling of selective school systems that use 11-plus entry exams in areas such as Kent and Trafford.
Grammar schools have long been criticised for creating a two-tier education system, and for being inaccessible to children from disadvantaged families such as those eligible for free school meals. But the new research goes further in suggesting that concentrations of grammar schools fail to improve academic performance"
I'm stdruck however by how the Grammar School Heads Association says that that's great, the lack of any difference in academic outcomes means it's not fair to criticise grammar schools. What I can't get my head around is, what's the point of the bloody things been for decades in that case?!
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/aug/28/study-casts-doubt-on-neanderthal-flower-burial-theory
https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-118th-congress
Quite frankly they don’t have the resource and this specific case seems a waste of time and effort.
Which they're very good at.
But, truthfully, the issue isn't grammars vs comps. If comps were noticeably better, we'd have seen it by now. The issue is French class sizes with Scandinavian approaches.
It is high time and long overdue that even the drink-sodden retards of the multiple education departments in the UK faced the fact we can have one or the other, but if we want a good education system, we can't have both.
For myself, I want Scandinavian processes and Scandinavian class sizes, because the French system is pretty poor at just about everything. But it does have the advantage of being quite cheap, so in a forced choice I suspect politicians would go for the latter.
Given the trashing of teacher pay and pensions it's where we're headed anyway, as @dixiedean has pointed out before.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4519632#Comment_4519632
Another reason many of the nervous will stick with Trump - they worry he really will run anyway, and even if doesn't they don't think the others will do better.
The real problem is that they take only a very small group, much too young. If selection were at 14 (as Leicester tried in the 1950s) it would make a lot more sense.
It might also kick some of the stupid snobbery about practical subjects into touch.
Ah: just seen Ydoethur's comment.
But then, they used to be run by Susan Acland-Hood. It's no surprise they're a disaster zone.
Edit - this is quite funny:
Even my sister, who does not share my love of cricket, took her family to a game at Old Trafford, albeit not realising until some way into the match that she wasn't actually watching Lancashire.
They deserve to lose the next election.
The Telegraph reports record demand for private tutors, as private schools are very expensive and grammar schools hard to get into (and only exist in a couple of places).
Good news for @ydoethur and @Dura_Ace but bad news for educational equality?
Round here, private education is mainly seen as a number of shops offering after school tuition in various subjects (and separately, in Koranic studies) but this low-level provision has so far largely escaped political controversy over independent teaching.
Had to cut them savagely last year due to lack of demand.
Interestingly, however, the majority of them seem to be being privately educated anyway.
I am strangely disappointed to find that isn't the case.
Academic performance is only one aspect though, selective schools may well worsen social and economic equality for example.
This is the link to the research article:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00131911.2023.2240977
But I agree that we select too ealy. In fact we do pretty much everything too early in our education system including starting and finishing school life.
Flogging the dead horse harder than you are already flogging it is not a good improvement.
Strangely, the French citizens who want to teach properly often end up in England, and not always teaching French either. I've never worked in a school that didn't have a French member of staff, and they were united in their condemnation of what they left behind.
Not that they were always enthused by what they found here. One science teacher applied to mark French orals, only to have a mighty bust-up with her chief examiner who insisted she not mark people down for pronouncing esses and tees on the end of words (despite the fact this was wrong) because the chief examiner thought it was right.
It is interesting to note the proportion of privately educated children in France is about the same as here, despite their strong tradition of using state services.
One of the things that should have set alarm bells clanging over Blair's education policy was that, in Rawnsley's words, 'he wanted to make the British system like the French system, where the state option was so good few children were privately educated.' That was absolutely bollocks on every level and suggested he didn't know what he was talking about.
(although he doesn't seem to be around right now.)
Some years ago, the council removed a small playground from a piece of ground shut round the corner from where I lived. It was relocated from our ward to one where the locals had voted for the ruling group on the council.
No money to keep it up, apparently. Then a neighbour mentioned that she was an ex-Economist journalist and asked for interviews.
£30,000 was discovered in spare council funds, The end state of the education system is that the paper work for a school will cost £100 Billion per school. Leaving no actual money for.. a school.
But the building for the people supervising the paperwork will be top notch.
Somewhat different in areas where there are a handful of grammar schools taking the top one percent with near-comprehensives for everyone else.
But ultimately, the 11+ process ought to go because it's a bit of crud economy; a fair amount of expense and hassle that doesn't really benefit anyone.
In 1976 I went to a Grammar, underfunded and poorly supported by staff. Everyone (except me) had passed the 11 plus. Students were streamed for O levels into an A and B stream. The B stream were for what the teachers believed to be the thick kids. Because they might fail specific subjects they were entered for CSE and not I levels. Only the O level results were posted in the local paper, and the pass rate was good. The CSE results were not published. In 1978 I came fifteenth in a year of just under 60 with 7 Bs and C's, an E in Chemistry and a U in French. So 45 students didn't realise 7 O' levels. In my book that is poor. Whatever the answer, that isn't it.
A friend of mine was offered a place at Crypt after passing the 11+, but his parents turned it down. It was Tommy's or the local comp.
With The Poster in Question, I think we would be running down more rabbit holes than a ferret pack.
However - as @Fysics_Teacher pointed out to us a few weeks back, one key problem is the timetabling. Setting each subject makes it much harder.
So they prioritise English and above all maths (where teaching mixed ability is both difficult and damaging) because they are the subjects the government rate double for league tables.