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Why the Conservatives might do worse than the polls suggest – politicalbetting.com
Why the Conservatives might do worse than the polls suggest – politicalbetting.com
Ipsos have published some fascinating polling on a range of metrics but the one, that in my humble opinion,we should focus on is the above chart which focuses on the favourability of political parties.
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In Tiverton the LDs were the benediciaries, despite being 3000 votes and 5% behind Labour, and 45% behind the Tories, and won with room to spare. The same arguments were initially made that Labour could be the challengers but the voters disagreed.
They have a much better chance of convincing the voters of that in Mid Bedfordshire given the seat and its history, but it's a fascinating battle. It might well be the mere fact of it being a seat with 'shire' in the name and a general belief that by-elections are where LDs shine, that they manage to persuade. True, but there was no question that they had no chance in that one. There's a difference between going light in an area with no hope whatsoever, and initially putting in effort to gain top candidate status and then 'getting behind' someone else if you fail.
Who came up with the old adage: if unsure. anti-Tories should look out of their window. If they see green, vote LD; otherwise, Lab.
It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
We have to expect some tactical voting, and it’s hard to know how much. Not just because as TSE points out the unpopularity the Tories have slid into, but how unpopular Sunak is becoming too. It is becoming a vote not just to remove the Tories, but remove Rishi Sunak too - and that’s a key difference than 1992, when Labour couldn’t get at Major’s popularity at all, the Tories built much of 1992 campaign around that, this time round Labour intend to put the unpopularity of Sunak at the heart of their offensive campaigning.
How can the Tories actually make tactical voting worse for them from here?
Polls have not looked good for Sunak since Uxbridge, and his reaction to it. I’m thinking now, in their desperation to change the scene with differentials, Sunak and the strategists (expensively brought in around him) have made a mistake in politicising air pollution and costs of fighting climate change.
HY can suggest squeezing the juicy bag of those Reform votes the polls are flagging up can only be good for the Tories, the truth is polices and promises that chase those Reform votes won’t act alone on Blukip minded, but on all voters - for lost Blukip votes Con might gain back from Reform even more tactical votes can go where Lab and Lib Dem need them, inspired by those harder, sillier, Blukip positions.
It could have been the number of voting pensioners in Uxbridge, idiosyncratic of the constituency and why they have never lost it, what got the Tories just over the line, not strictly Ulez, so a misreading what kind of success Uxbridge actually was, in terms of moving policy on pollution and climate change actually a big electoral mistake in terms of suppressing anti Tory tactical votes.
Like pouring gasoline on the tactical fire. 😇
...
the Socialist Party of Great Britain holds over £400,000 in cash and a further £800,000 in investment funds.
The party also owns a property in south London, bought in 1951 for £4,000, which is now worth £1.3m.
In the past year it received a £400,000 inheritance from a member who had died.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66607841
Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html
You never get a decent understanding from the commentariat.
And absurd that it is all available for our mutual edification on TikTok.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-interview-boris-johnson-brexit-trump-snxvkgqf0 (£££)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-theresa-may-brexit-partygate-b2400124.html
I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.
The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
If this *is* unprompted, then I agree. That's far higher than I would expect.
Election victory marred by criticism of voting process from other parties and official observers
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared Mnangagwa the winner, with 52.6% of the vote, beating Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), who trailed at 44%. The election comes six years after longtime ruler Robert Mugabe was removed from power in a military coup."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/emmerson-mnangagwa-wins-second-term-as-president-of-zimbabwe
Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
And the job vacancies filled because those people would be allowed to work
They don’t get much scrutiny, so they get away with it.
Just what the heck is happening.
Liverpool are falling apart like the Tories it seems.
They exist in business as well as politics.
You were the voice of enthusiastic Remainer reason. Where did it all go wrong?
First Evertonian to do so for several months.
It’s an interesting thesis.
There were several turning points, and the narrative was so torturous it’s hard to remember them all.
The first mistake (from both a Remain and Brexit perspective) was probably exercising Article 50 without a coherent end point in mind.
The Tories won't do worse than the polls.
But tactical voting may disguise the extent of swing back.
Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
Clegg and Cable were both confident in front of the cameras and Cable was decent at punditry, but they’ve both left. Davey is competent in front of journalists but not a natural. Farron is a good talker with a sense of humour but his past fluffed leadership of the party hangs like a shadow.
The rest are almost all very new to the media game. The slickest performer currently is probably Daisy Cooper.
The exercise of A50 was one of the very few levers it could play with, but it chose not to use it.
Not only that, but as you say there was no internal alignment.
As a result, Davis didn’t have a leg to stand on when it came to timing and sequencing, the so-called “row of the summer”.
It was such ineptitude, as well as the cavalier terms of the referendum itself, that made a second referendum legitimate in my opinion, although I always believed that it would likely be lost (by remain).
The LDs risk looking like a harmless but slightly batty band of nimbys instead of serious political players.
They also, as I’ve long argued, need to recant on the student loans.
I like Rachel, but she’s a plodder. She’ll be fine but won’t leave a mark.
Are you suggesting he perhaps was never an ardent Trumper-Remainer-Leaver, but just an internet contrarian.
I am working on the assumption that the civil service did not agree to pay rack rate…
Personally think harmless, non equine-scaring behaviour between now and the GE is just what the doctor ordered. When the conservatives start coming back in the polls and Labour start to disappoint in the next term (or the one after) will be time to up the edginess - just a bit though.
Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing so of course now her deal was much better in terms of a closer relationship with the EU and much better in terms of the economy .
But I’ll play along. What’s his strategic vision for the country?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/27/the-edinburgh-fringe-is-just-another-choking-canary-in-the-toxic-national-mine
As is all too usual, the whine "how dare the Scots not allow the landlords to evict locals to make room for us?" is implicit.
But, tbf, as well as the usual unfunny Fringe comedians' jokes (see PB passim), the Graun does acknowledge the proper festivals. Very taken with the look of the women's art in particular.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/aug/27/scottish-women-artists-250-years-of-challenging-perception-grayson-perry-smash-hits-review-joan-eardley-alison-watt-dorothy-johnstone-royal-scottish-academy
If I had been an MP in the Parliament of shame, I would have voted down May's deal. It was rubbish. It just happened that with the benefit of hindsight what came next was even worse.
Anyway glad you are back Rabbit.
His strategy for winning the leadership, taking total control of the Party and putting them into a c.20% lead isn't bad.
The Brexit outcome appears to be more and more people deciding it was a damn fool idea with each passing week.
Was it only Brexit that was Labour's fault, or everything Johnson did wrong in government? Or maybe everything he ever did wrong in his life?
Now they want the grown ups in the room to sort it out.
Anyway, I only patronize civil servants, on the grounds they are much stupider than I am and deserve it.
Then again, just listen to a German visitor asking you to pass the 'Worcestershire' when he wants some Lea & Perrins. One of the minor innocent pleasures of life.
(Went to Evensong at Worcester Cathedral. I have no idea what the voluntary was but it was an absolute assault on the senses, in the best way possible. Some sort of post-Messiaen toccata, I think.)
And about (or perhaps at least) half of us pronounce it "Wur-cess-ter-shire" when banging the back the bottom of the bottle, to get some on our sirloin or what-have-you.
https://youtu.be/TL7HkwnzENo?si=uTq-VHcDPusCyGtb
Admittedly, they’re people who despite their expensive education have gone on to choose to live in Bedfordshire, but still…