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Why the Conservatives might do worse than the polls suggest – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,731
edited September 2023 in General
imageWhy the Conservatives might do worse than the polls suggest – politicalbetting.com

Ipsos have published some fascinating polling on a range of metrics but the one, that in my humble opinion,we should focus on is the above chart which focuses on the favourability of political parties.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    First like Labour at the next general election?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,850
    Second, like the rate of my thoughts as to the next GE.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    Tory (slim) hopes rest on Lab and LDs not getting their shit together.

    The real campaign is now - between Lab and LD - to establish who the clear rival is. Once that is confirmed (by early polling), one of them needs to get behind the other.

    The earlier poll is not useful, and was probably initiated by the Tories in the hopes of causing disagreement among their rivals.

    If Lab really have selected a “blow-in”, then that is very stupid, as otherwise I’d have made them favourites.

    I don’t think Lab and LD need to get behind whichever of them turns out to be the main challenger. If the main challenger is clear, the voters will do that regardless of the parties.
    Quite so.

    In Tiverton the LDs were the benediciaries, despite being 3000 votes and 5% behind Labour, and 45% behind the Tories, and won with room to spare. The same arguments were initially made that Labour could be the challengers but the voters disagreed.

    They have a much better chance of convincing the voters of that in Mid Bedfordshire given the seat and its history, but it's a fascinating battle. It might well be the mere fact of it being a seat with 'shire' in the name and a general belief that by-elections are where LDs shine, that they manage to persuade.

    Tory (slim) hopes rest on Lab and LDs not getting their shit together.

    The real campaign is now - between Lab and LD - to establish who the clear rival is. Once that is confirmed (by early polling), one of them needs to get behind the other.

    The earlier poll is not useful, and was probably initiated by the Tories in the hopes of causing disagreement among their rivals.

    If Lab really have selected a “blow-in”, then that is very stupid, as otherwise I’d have made them favourites.

    I don’t think Lab and LD need to get behind whichever of them turns out to be the main challenger. If the main challenger is clear, the voters will do that regardless of the parties.
    True and not true.
    For example, LDs did not throw unlimited resource at Uxbridge.
    True, but there was no question that they had no chance in that one. There's a difference between going light in an area with no hope whatsoever, and initially putting in effort to gain top candidate status and then 'getting behind' someone else if you fail.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    edited August 2023
    FPT re: the by-election

    Who came up with the old adage: if unsure. anti-Tories should look out of their window. If they see green, vote LD; otherwise, Lab.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    edited August 2023
    Well that's what you get if you post before you refresh.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    David, you’ve fallen short.
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    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,850
    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Disagree with this. Look at seats like Esher and Walton. Any anti-Corbyn tactical voting didn’t prevent a swing of 18 points against the Tories.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,850

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    I totally agree with the header. The UNS and MVS seat models don’t even build anti Tory tactical voting in.

    We have to expect some tactical voting, and it’s hard to know how much. Not just because as TSE points out the unpopularity the Tories have slid into, but how unpopular Sunak is becoming too. It is becoming a vote not just to remove the Tories, but remove Rishi Sunak too - and that’s a key difference than 1992, when Labour couldn’t get at Major’s popularity at all, the Tories built much of 1992 campaign around that, this time round Labour intend to put the unpopularity of Sunak at the heart of their offensive campaigning.

    How can the Tories actually make tactical voting worse for them from here?

    Polls have not looked good for Sunak since Uxbridge, and his reaction to it. I’m thinking now, in their desperation to change the scene with differentials, Sunak and the strategists (expensively brought in around him) have made a mistake in politicising air pollution and costs of fighting climate change.

    HY can suggest squeezing the juicy bag of those Reform votes the polls are flagging up can only be good for the Tories, the truth is polices and promises that chase those Reform votes won’t act alone on Blukip minded, but on all voters - for lost Blukip votes Con might gain back from Reform even more tactical votes can go where Lab and Lib Dem need them, inspired by those harder, sillier, Blukip positions.

    It could have been the number of voting pensioners in Uxbridge, idiosyncratic of the constituency and why they have never lost it, what got the Tories just over the line, not strictly Ulez, so a misreading what kind of success Uxbridge actually was, in terms of moving policy on pollution and climate change actually a big electoral mistake in terms of suppressing anti Tory tactical votes.

    Like pouring gasoline on the tactical fire. 😇
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    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
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    On topic, broken, sleazy Tories, etc., etc.! :lol:
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    Tiny socialist party amasses £2.6m in reserves
    ...
    the Socialist Party of Great Britain holds over £400,000 in cash and a further £800,000 in investment funds.

    The party also owns a property in south London, bought in 1951 for £4,000, which is now worth £1.3m.

    In the past year it received a £400,000 inheritance from a member who had died.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66607841
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    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    Lab also have Streeting!
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    And a question for you TSE, if you are not distracted by other things. The Football Managers who earlier in summer expressed concern Arab League were working to a later transfer deadline, Klopp, Arteta, might not be surprised themselves if key players leave their clubs this week, like they suspected something all along? Today is Salah’s last game for Liverpool?
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,850

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    Lab also have Streeting!
    Move along.
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    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    Lab also have Streeting!
    Move along.
    Local bias, of course :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,636
    edited August 2023

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    :innocent:

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    Tiny socialist party amasses £2.6m in reserves
    ...
    the Socialist Party of Great Britain holds over £400,000 in cash and a further £800,000 in investment funds.

    The party also owns a property in south London, bought in 1951 for £4,000, which is now worth £1.3m.

    In the past year it received a £400,000 inheritance from a member who had died.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66607841

    Champagne Socialist Party :lol:
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    I would quite like to read Theresa May’s book to understand her thinking and tactics in that critical period between the Brexit vote and the 2017 election.

    You never get a decent understanding from the commentariat.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Some odd figures in the header. The LibDems could have hoped to be on more than -13, while as many people have a definite opinion on Reform (mostly negative, though) as the LibDems. Since we almost never see anything about Reform or their leadership, where is all the strong feeling coming from?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html

    Even allowing for the Mail’s provocative, hate-mongering reporting, it is farcical to see the government block book new hotels for asylum seekers.

    And absurd that it is all available for our mutual edification on TikTok.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,727
    edited August 2023

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-interview-boris-johnson-brexit-trump-snxvkgqf0 (£££)
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-theresa-may-brexit-partygate-b2400124.html
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,295

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    On the other hand, that LibDem favorable/unfavorable is not great: that could make the LibDem recovery much less likely than is generally assumed on here.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,071

    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html

    Even allowing for the Mail’s provocative, hate-mongering reporting, it is farcical to see the government block book new hotels for asylum seekers.

    And absurd that it is all available for our mutual edification on TikTok.
    Remember that the backlog of unprocessed applicants costing us money is a (deliberate?) result of the government not trying to process more cases.
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    Some odd figures in the header. The LibDems could have hoped to be on more than -13, while as many people have a definite opinion on Reform (mostly negative, though) as the LibDems. Since we almost never see anything about Reform or their leadership, where is all the strong feeling coming from?

    Lawrence Fox appears from time to time on GB News, I think.
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    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html

    Even allowing for the Mail’s provocative, hate-mongering reporting, it is farcical to see the government block book new hotels for asylum seekers.

    And absurd that it is all available for our mutual edification on TikTok.
    Trouble is, the alternative is processing asylum applications.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,157
    edited August 2023

    Some odd figures in the header. The LibDems could have hoped to be on more than -13, while as many people have a definite opinion on Reform (mostly negative, though) as the LibDems. Since we almost never see anything about Reform or their leadership, where is all the strong feeling coming from?

    Are these prompted questions? Because unprompted, I suspect the number of people who would bother to mention them would be much lower than this. Prompted, I suspect it triggers the "oh, yes, the right wing Farage-y people" brain cells in about 50% of respondents, and an opinion is expressed accordingly.

    If this *is* unprompted, then I agree. That's far higher than I would expect.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    "Emmerson Mnangagwa wins second term as president of Zimbabwe
    Election victory marred by criticism of voting process from other parties and official observers

    The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared Mnangagwa the winner, with 52.6% of the vote, beating Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), who trailed at 44%. The election comes six years after longtime ruler Robert Mugabe was removed from power in a military coup."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/emmerson-mnangagwa-wins-second-term-as-president-of-zimbabwe
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,137

    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html

    Even allowing for the Mail’s provocative, hate-mongering reporting, it is farcical to see the government block book new hotels for asylum seekers.

    And absurd that it is all available for our mutual edification on TikTok.
    Trouble is, the alternative is processing asylum applications.
    Just think of the millions that could be saved doing that.

    And the job vacancies filled because those people would be allowed to work
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    edited August 2023

    Good to see @MoonRabbit back!

    Assist for Mo Salah in his last Premiership game 😇
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329
    rcs1000 said:

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    On the other hand, that LibDem favorable/unfavorable is not great: that could make the LibDem recovery much less likely than is generally assumed on here.
    The LibDems seem to be missing their quota of solid media performers. Every time you see one on TV now, they come across as irritating or odd.
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    Atrociously poor backwards pass by Liverpool to lead to the Geordies opening goal.
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    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    And the LibDems should have learned to count and cooperated with Labour.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    Lib Dems do lack media heavy-hitters.
    They don’t get much scrutiny, so they get away with it.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html

    Even allowing for the Mail’s provocative, hate-mongering reporting, it is farcical to see the government block book new hotels for asylum seekers.

    And absurd that it is all available for our mutual edification on TikTok.
    Trouble is, the alternative is processing asylum applications.
    Oh sure. This is entirely an artefact of the government’s lies and ineptitude.
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    Atrociously poor backwards pass by Liverpool to lead to the Geordies opening goal.

    And while I switched to this tab to write that, Van Dijk was sent off.

    Just what the heck is happening.

    Liverpool are falling apart like the Tories it seems. :(
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    edited August 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    "Emmerson Mnangagwa wins second term as president of Zimbabwe
    Election victory marred by criticism of voting process from other parties and official observers

    The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared Mnangagwa the winner, with 52.6% of the vote, beating Nelson Chamisa of the Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), who trailed at 44%. The election comes six years after longtime ruler Robert Mugabe was removed from power in a military coup."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/emmerson-mnangagwa-wins-second-term-as-president-of-zimbabwe

    Hey, it may well be an unfair process, but at least his ego didn't require him to claim he got 90+% of the vote, that's something.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
    I think the die-hard remainer coalition did come close to succeeding, but ultimately blew itself up because of tactical mistakes due to Boris Derangement Syndrome.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,452
    Dirty Liverpool. Klopp really is a total bell end.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    Taz said:

    Dirty Liverpool. Klopp really is a total bell end.

    He really is. Pains me to say it as a Liverpool fan, but he's given lots of examples of that being the case.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Not a very satisfactory state of affairs, is it?
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,452

    Good to see @MoonRabbit back!

    Assist for Mo Salah in his last Premiership game 😇
    Boom !
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852

    I would quite like to read Theresa May’s book to understand her thinking and tactics in that critical period between the Brexit vote and the 2017 election.

    You never get a decent understanding from the commentariat.

    Theresa May was a good first lieutenant, but a terrible captain.

    They exist in business as well as politics.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    What about @williamglenn (Remainer)?

    You were the voice of enthusiastic Remainer reason. Where did it all go wrong?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    edited August 2023

    Atrociously poor backwards pass by Liverpool to lead to the Geordies opening goal.

    Scouser scored.
    First Evertonian to do so for several months.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,150
    Taz said:

    Dirty Liverpool. Klopp really is a total bell end.

    Newcastle fans getting a bit noisy after decades of total irrelevance. How are your dirty owners? Must be proud.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    What about @williamglenn (Remainer)?

    You were the voice of enthusiastic Remainer reason. Where did it all go wrong?
    @williamglenn can speak for himself but he's a very skilled devil's advocate and there's always a place for that in political discussion.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    edited August 2023

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
    I think the die-hard remainer coalition did come close to succeeding, but ultimately blew itself up because of tactical mistakes due to Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    You should elaborate on this.
    It’s an interesting thesis.

    There were several turning points, and the narrative was so torturous it’s hard to remember them all.

    The first mistake (from both a Remain and Brexit perspective) was probably exercising Article 50 without a coherent end point in mind.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    On topic.
    The Tories won't do worse than the polls.
    But tactical voting may disguise the extent of swing back.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    It’s historical fact. Labours political game playing killed off a softer Brexit. The only chance of a softer brexit was to vote for May’s deal - Labours political game playing in the HoC did not improve their electoral position AND led directly to Boris Johnson’s rock hard brexit.

    Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
    I think the die-hard remainer coalition did come close to succeeding, but ultimately blew itself up because of tactical mistakes due to Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    You should elaborate on this.
    It’s an interesting thesis.


    There were several turning points, and the narrative was so torturous it’s hard to remember them all.

    The first mistake was probably exercising Article 50 without a coherent end point in mind.
    That was one I really did not expect. It had been quite some time up to that point after all. And it only got worse as even well into the A50 process it became apparent that even within Cabinet consensus had not been reached. That was when my view on things changed - chaos to some degree was expected, but years in they still didn't even have agreement on an approach.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    dixiedean said:

    Atrociously poor backwards pass by Liverpool to lead to the Geordies opening goal.

    Scouser scored.
    First Evertonian to do so for several months.
    I like the look of how he is developing. Very pacy to start with.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,034

    Lib Dems do lack media heavy-hitters.
    They don’t get much scrutiny, so they get away with it.

    There’s a very small pool of MPs to choose from. This will hopefully be swollen with a few media performers after the next election.

    Clegg and Cable were both confident in front of the cameras and Cable was decent at punditry, but they’ve both left. Davey is competent in front of journalists but not a natural. Farron is a good talker with a sense of humour but his past fluffed leadership of the party hangs like a shadow.

    The rest are almost all very new to the media game. The slickest performer currently is probably Daisy Cooper.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,801

    rcs1000 said:

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    On the other hand, that LibDem favorable/unfavorable is not great: that could make the LibDem recovery much less likely than is generally assumed on here.
    The LibDems seem to be missing their quota of solid media performers. Every time you see one on TV now, they come across as irritating or odd.
    Isn't that a prerequisite for being a LibDem?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    edited August 2023
    kle4 said:

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
    I think the die-hard remainer coalition did come close to succeeding, but ultimately blew itself up because of tactical mistakes due to Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    You should elaborate on this.
    It’s an interesting thesis.


    There were several turning points, and the narrative was so torturous it’s hard to remember them all.

    The first mistake was probably exercising Article 50 without a coherent end point in mind.
    That was one I really did not expect. It had been quite some time up to that point after all. And it only got worse as even well into the A50 process it became apparent that even within Cabinet consensus had not been reached. That was when my view on things changed - chaos to some degree was expected, but years in they still didn't even have agreement on an approach.
    Britain went into Brexit with a very poor hand.
    The exercise of A50 was one of the very few levers it could play with, but it chose not to use it.

    Not only that, but as you say there was no internal alignment.

    As a result, Davis didn’t have a leg to stand on when it came to timing and sequencing, the so-called “row of the summer”.

    It was such ineptitude, as well as the cavalier terms of the referendum itself, that made a second referendum legitimate in my opinion, although I always believed that it would likely be lost (by remain).
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    TimS said:

    Lib Dems do lack media heavy-hitters.
    They don’t get much scrutiny, so they get away with it.

    There’s a very small pool of MPs to choose from. This will hopefully be swollen with a few media performers after the next election.

    Clegg and Cable were both confident in front of the cameras and Cable was decent at punditry, but they’ve both left. Davey is competent in front of journalists but not a natural. Farron is a good talker with a sense of humour but his past fluffed leadership of the party hangs like a shadow.

    The rest are almost all very new to the media game. The slickest performer currently is probably Daisy Cooper.
    I agree with all of this, which is why I’d advise drafting in some of the LD Lords, and even the Alliance’s Stephen Farry.

    The LDs risk looking like a harmless but slightly batty band of nimbys instead of serious political players.

    They also, as I’ve long argued, need to recant on the student loans.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,801
    Off topic, I assume that there still is such a thing as the Edinburgh Festival? Going off the TV, there is only the Fringe.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    May be we have different definitions but, for me, Starmer is a tactician and a politician (he considers the political implications of every action first and foremost). He’s not a thinker.

    I like Rachel, but she’s a plodder. She’ll be fine but won’t leave a mark.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,329

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
    I think the die-hard remainer coalition did come close to succeeding, but ultimately blew itself up because of tactical mistakes due to Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    You should elaborate on this.
    It’s an interesting thesis.

    There were several turning points, and the narrative was so torturous it’s hard to remember them all.

    The first mistake (from both a Remain and Brexit perspective) was probably exercising Article 50 without a coherent end point in mind.
    I'd need to write something in a longer form to cover all of it, but the main one was that they mistook his 'no deal' bluff for being his true plan, so when he came back with a deal they had nowhere to go politically.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    May be we have different definitions but, for me, Starmer is a tactician and a politician (he considers the political implications of every action first and foremost). He’s not a thinker.

    I like Rachel, but she’s a plodder. She’ll be fine but won’t leave a mark.

    I'd say he is far more a strategist than tactician.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    What about @williamglenn (Remainer)?

    You were the voice of enthusiastic Remainer reason. Where did it all go wrong?
    @williamglenn can speak for himself but he's a very skilled devil's advocate and there's always a place for that in political discussion.
    @williamglenn is a very articulate poster. He was a particularly compelling pro-EU poster after the Referendum.

    Are you suggesting he perhaps was never an ardent Trumper-Remainer-Leaver, but just an internet contrarian.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    Andy_JS said:

    "Asylum seeker who chronicled his journey from France to UK on TikTok is now living in 'ultra chic, sophisticated' four-star hotel with the 'cosiest beds in London' where rooms cost £241 a night and taxpayers are footing the bill

    Rooms in the Atrium hotel at Heathrow have been taken over to house migrants
    A TikTok video showed asylum seeker Rahat Popal reclining on a bed in the hotel"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12440613/Asylum-seeker-chronicled-journey-France-UK-TikTok-living-ultra-chic-sophisticated-four-star-hotel-cosiest-beds-London-rooms-cost-241-night-taxpayers-footing-bill.html

    An airport hotel doesn’t seem an unreasonable place to put them.

    I am working on the assumption that the civil service did not agree to pay rack rate…
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    It’s historical fact. Labours political game playing killed off a softer Brexit. The only chance of a softer brexit was to vote for May’s deal - Labours political game playing in the HoC did not improve their electoral position AND led directly to Boris Johnson’s rock hard brexit.

    Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
    And that’s the danger of putting a tactician not a strategist in charge of something important. What every happened to the guy, something Starmer?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,034

    TimS said:

    Lib Dems do lack media heavy-hitters.
    They don’t get much scrutiny, so they get away with it.

    There’s a very small pool of MPs to choose from. This will hopefully be swollen with a few media performers after the next election.

    Clegg and Cable were both confident in front of the cameras and Cable was decent at punditry, but they’ve both left. Davey is competent in front of journalists but not a natural. Farron is a good talker with a sense of humour but his past fluffed leadership of the party hangs like a shadow.

    The rest are almost all very new to the media game. The slickest performer currently is probably Daisy Cooper.
    I agree with all of this, which is why I’d advise drafting in some of the LD Lords, and even the Alliance’s Stephen Farry.

    The LDs risk looking like a harmless but slightly batty band of nimbys instead of serious political players.

    They also, as I’ve long argued, need to recant on the student loans.
    I think the student loans thing has now faded from memory outside hard core Labour tribalists and some political pundits. Recanting would mean reminding people.

    Personally think harmless, non equine-scaring behaviour between now and the GE is just what the doctor ordered. When the conservatives start coming back in the polls and Labour start to disappoint in the next term (or the one after) will be time to up the edginess - just a bit though.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,107
    May would not have survived her deal going through on opposition votes . Labour would have suffered a huge fallout from Remainers if they had backed her deal .

    Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing so of course now her deal was much better in terms of a closer relationship with the EU and much better in terms of the economy .
  • Options
    Now @MoonRabbit is back can we have Stuart and MrEd back please? @MikeSmithson @TheScreamingEagles?
  • Options
    As for Labour thinkers. Tony Blair, he's back advising weekly, this will be a fourth term of Blairism.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    dixiedean said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    May be we have different definitions but, for me, Starmer is a tactician and a politician (he considers the political implications of every action first and foremost). He’s not a thinker.

    I like Rachel, but she’s a plodder. She’ll be fine but won’t leave a mark.

    I'd say he is far more a strategist than tactician.
    The Brexit outcome suggests otherwise.

    But I’ll play along. What’s his strategic vision for the country?
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,272

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    Blames them for what?
    Theresa May has done a book she is plugging, and says the 2019 result was due to Labour Brexiteers rather than Labour anti-Jezzers jumping to Con.
    Ok so she is saying the pro-Boris Brexitism was a more potent force than anti-Jezzism.

    I think that’s right, although it’s a surprise to hear her make that argument. I would caveat by saying that Boris’s most compelling offer was to “Get It Done” rather than any of the accompanying Brexitology.

    The desire to end the paralysis in government was widespread.
    2019 also has to be read as a verdict on those who were stalling in the hope of overturning Brexit. They were judged to have been primarily responsible for the paralysis.

    Labour Remainers could have avoided the 2019 Johnson premiership if they'd voted for May's deal.
    At the time you were convinced we would not even Brexit. You might be right in your analysis, but you were a fervent and resolute member of the die-hard remainer coalition.
    I think the die-hard remainer coalition did come close to succeeding, but ultimately blew itself up because of tactical mistakes due to Boris Derangement Syndrome.
    You should elaborate on this.
    It’s an interesting thesis.

    There were several turning points, and the narrative was so torturous it’s hard to remember them all.

    The first mistake (from both a Remain and Brexit perspective) was probably exercising Article 50 without a coherent end point in mind.
    I'd need to write something in a longer form to cover all of it, but the main one was that they mistook his 'no deal' bluff for being his true plan, so when he came back with a deal they had nowhere to go politically.
    I know several otherwise reasonable people who were utterly convinced at the time that prorogation was an attempt for force no-deal, rather than an attempt to force parliament to vote for a deal.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    edited August 2023

    Off topic, I assume that there still is such a thing as the Edinburgh Festival? Going off the TV, there is only the Fringe.

    Was reading this - not quite sure what to make of this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/27/the-edinburgh-fringe-is-just-another-choking-canary-in-the-toxic-national-mine

    As is all too usual, the whine "how dare the Scots not allow the landlords to evict locals to make room for us?" is implicit.

    But, tbf, as well as the usual unfunny Fringe comedians' jokes (see PB passim), the Graun does acknowledge the proper festivals. Very taken with the look of the women's art in particular.

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/aug/27/scottish-women-artists-250-years-of-challenging-perception-grayson-perry-smash-hits-review-joan-eardley-alison-watt-dorothy-johnstone-royal-scottish-academy
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,541

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    It’s historical fact. Labours political game playing killed off a softer Brexit. The only chance of a softer brexit was to vote for May’s deal - Labours political game playing in the HoC did not improve their electoral position AND led directly to Boris Johnson’s rock hard brexit.

    Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
    Labour are particularly useless and Starmer in particular, utterly inept. Nonetheless your analysis is absurd. In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault. Labour own Brexit!

    If I had been an MP in the Parliament of shame, I would have voted down May's deal. It was rubbish. It just happened that with the benefit of hindsight what came next was even worse.

    Anyway glad you are back Rabbit.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,272
    edited August 2023

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    It’s historical fact. Labours political game playing killed off a softer Brexit. The only chance of a softer brexit was to vote for May’s deal - Labours political game playing in the HoC did not improve their electoral position AND led directly to Boris Johnson’s rock hard brexit.

    Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
    Labour are particularly useless and Starmer in particular, utterly inept. Nonetheless your analysis is absurd. In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault. Labour own Brexit!

    If I had been an MP in the Parliament of shame, I would have voted down May's deal. It was rubbish. It just happened that with the benefit of hindsight what came next was even worse.

    Anyway glad you are back Rabbit.
    May's deal was about the softest that could be expected given her red lines, which Labour MPs knew when a majority of them voted to invoke Article 50.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,611

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    It’s historical fact. Labours political game playing killed off a softer Brexit. The only chance of a softer brexit was to vote for May’s deal - Labours political game playing in the HoC did not improve their electoral position AND led directly to Boris Johnson’s rock hard brexit.

    Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
    Labour are particularly useless and Starmer in particular, utterly inept. Nonetheless your analysis is absurd. In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault. Labour own Brexit!

    If I had been an MP in the Parliament of shame, I would have voted down May's deal. It was rubbish. It just happened that with the benefit of hindsight what came next was even worse.

    Anyway glad you are back Rabbit.
    We've gained a Moon Rabbit and with Leon's banning lost a lunar tic.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071

    dixiedean said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tory party lacks thinkers. They're all in the private sector. This seems an unfortunate consequence of Boris etc. Perhaps worse in the US.

    Who, in your view, are the thinkers in the other parties?

    It seems to me that politics is an increasingly unattractive career for most people who could make a worthwhile contribution
    A good question. Labour have Reeves and Starmer.

    I can't think of anyone else really. I can't think of any Tory MP that counts either.
    May be we have different definitions but, for me, Starmer is a tactician and a politician (he considers the political implications of every action first and foremost). He’s not a thinker.

    I like Rachel, but she’s a plodder. She’ll be fine but won’t leave a mark.

    I'd say he is far more a strategist than tactician.
    The Brexit outcome suggests otherwise.

    But I’ll play along. What’s his strategic vision for the country?
    He hasn't got to running the country yet.
    His strategy for winning the leadership, taking total control of the Party and putting them into a c.20% lead isn't bad.
    The Brexit outcome appears to be more and more people deciding it was a damn fool idea with each passing week.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,087

    Off topic, I assume that there still is such a thing as the Edinburgh Festival? Going off the TV, there is only the Fringe.

    It seems to me that, at some point in the 90s, youth culture in the 70s became codified as mainstream culture at the broadcasters, and over time ossified. How else to explain the never-ending flow of stand-up comedians on TV doing everything from game shows to political commentary.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault.

    Astonishing.

    Was it only Brexit that was Labour's fault, or everything Johnson did wrong in government? Or maybe everything he ever did wrong in his life?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,611
    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,030
    Chris said:

    In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault.

    Astonishing.

    Was it only Brexit that was Labour's fault, or everything Johnson did wrong in government? Or maybe everything he ever did wrong in his life?
    Your sarcasm meter needs adjusting. Cutting all of the context out of the post doesn’t help.
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    Chris said:

    In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault.

    Astonishing.

    Was it only Brexit that was Labour's fault, or everything Johnson did wrong in government? Or maybe everything he ever did wrong in his life?
    The latest “it is Labour’s fault” feels awfully weak and hollow. That line may have worked in 2015 but not nearly 10 years later. This is a Tory invention implemented by the people that wanted it and now they’re unhappy it has failed.

    Now they want the grown ups in the room to sort it out.
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    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    Perhaps you might consider, patronizing a somewhat better class of steakhouse?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,611

    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    Perhaps you might consider, patronizing a somewhat better class of steakhouse?
    I'm sure there's a pun in there, but I've no idea what it is.

    Anyway, I only patronize civil servants, on the grounds they are much stupider than I am and deserve it.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    ydoethur said:

    Conservatives will deffo do worse than UNS. In 2019, they benefited from anti-Jez tactical voting, and nobody (OK, hardly anybody) is going to go out of their way to vote against Keir Beige.

    Interestingly, Theresa May blames Labour Brexiteers for jumping to Boris.
    It’s historical fact. Labours political game playing killed off a softer Brexit. The only chance of a softer brexit was to vote for May’s deal - Labours political game playing in the HoC did not improve their electoral position AND led directly to Boris Johnson’s rock hard brexit.

    Labours pointless game playing ultimately enabled Johnson’s rock hard Brexit. And that game playing was unnecessary, irresponsible, and cannot be defended by those who wish for a softer Brexit today.
    Labour are particularly useless and Starmer in particular, utterly inept. Nonetheless your analysis is absurd. In a nutshell Labour posturing made Boris do a big bad Brexit, it was all Labour's fault. Labour own Brexit!

    If I had been an MP in the Parliament of shame, I would have voted down May's deal. It was rubbish. It just happened that with the benefit of hindsight what came next was even worse.

    Anyway glad you are back Rabbit.
    We've gained a Moon Rabbit and with Leon's banning lost a lunar tic.
    Since when has Leon been banned? I thought he 'left' as a sort of joke?
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    Keir Fear now, is not nearly as terrifying as Demon-Eyes Bambi at the fag-end of the 2nd millennium.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    EPG said:

    Off topic, I assume that there still is such a thing as the Edinburgh Festival? Going off the TV, there is only the Fringe.

    It seems to me that, at some point in the 90s, youth culture in the 70s became codified as mainstream culture at the broadcasters, and over time ossified. How else to explain the never-ending flow of stand-up comedians on TV doing everything from game shows to political commentary.
    Hmm! Maybe rather longer than that? I remember going to a play by some Oxbridge group somewhere in the lower part of the High Street sometime around 1980 and seeing one R. Atkinson.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,173
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    Perhaps you might consider, patronizing a somewhat better class of steakhouse?
    I'm sure there's a pun in there, but I've no idea what it is.

    Anyway, I only patronize civil servants, on the grounds they are much stupider than I am and deserve it.
    Perhaps because SSI pronounces it differently? So the pun doesn't work?

    Then again, just listen to a German visitor asking you to pass the 'Worcestershire' when he wants some Lea & Perrins. One of the minor innocent pleasures of life.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,905
    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    I just about collapsed over the river from their home ground an hour ago.

    (Went to Evensong at Worcester Cathedral. I have no idea what the voluntary was but it was an absolute assault on the senses, in the best way possible. Some sort of post-Messiaen toccata, I think.)
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    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    Perhaps you might consider, patronizing a somewhat better class of steakhouse?
    I'm sure there's a pun in there, but I've no idea what it is.

    Anyway, I only patronize civil servants, on the grounds they are much stupider than I am and deserve it.
    Us colonials mostly know Worcestershire as a steak sauce NOT as an English county.

    And about (or perhaps at least) half of us pronounce it "Wur-cess-ter-shire" when banging the back the bottom of the bottle, to get some on our sirloin or what-have-you.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    Perhaps you might consider, patronizing a somewhat better class of steakhouse?
    I'm sure there's a pun in there, but I've no idea what it is.

    Anyway, I only patronize civil servants, on the grounds they are much stupider than I am and deserve it.
    Us colonials mostly know Worcestershire as a steak sauce NOT as an English county.

    And about (or perhaps at least) half of us pronounce it "Wur-cess-ter-shire" when banging the back the bottom of the bottle, to get some on our sirloin or what-have-you.
    Don’t worry SSI, I got it, but I did have to think about it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,611
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Worcestershire collapsing in an embarrassing heap here.

    Perhaps you might consider, patronizing a somewhat better class of steakhouse?
    I'm sure there's a pun in there, but I've no idea what it is.

    Anyway, I only patronize civil servants, on the grounds they are much stupider than I am and deserve it.
    Us colonials mostly know Worcestershire as a steak sauce NOT as an English county.

    And about (or perhaps at least) half of us pronounce it "Wur-cess-ter-shire" when banging the back the bottom of the bottle, to get some on our sirloin or what-have-you.
    Don’t worry SSI, I got it, but I did have to think about it.
    One for you Doug: I was listening to this earlier when planning some music for choir.

    https://youtu.be/TL7HkwnzENo?si=uTq-VHcDPusCyGtb
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    NeilVW said:

    FPT re: the by-election

    Who came up with the old adage: if unsure. anti-Tories should look out of their window. If they see green, vote LD; otherwise, Lab.

    That Beds seat has a particularly high proportion of well educated people, so you’d expect the LDs to be in with a decent shot.

    Admittedly, they’re people who despite their expensive education have gone on to choose to live in Bedfordshire, but still…
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,611
    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    FPT re: the by-election

    Who came up with the old adage: if unsure. anti-Tories should look out of their window. If they see green, vote LD; otherwise, Lab.

    That Beds seat has a particularly high proportion of well educated people, so you’d expect the LDs to be in with a decent shot.

    Admittedly, they’re people who despite their expensive education have gone on to choose to live in Bedfordshire, but still…
    What's surely more perturbing is that despite being eddicated and sofistikated and all that, they still voted for Mad Nad?
This discussion has been closed.