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A LAB overall majority moves to new betting high – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,122
edited August 2023 in General
imageA LAB overall majority moves to new betting high – politicalbetting.com

The polls have been so consistent that it is not hard to understand why the betting markets see a LAB overall majority edging up on the betting markets.

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,677
    First, like Labour.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,563
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    This morning’s first attempt at witness intimidation.
    https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1691074321584701440

    Initially read that as witless
    I think it was French & Saunders who parodied Silent Witness as "Witless Silence" :lol:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,961
    Well I hope the punters are right, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    If I did have to place a bet, it would be on NOM.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,350
    Value remains with NOM, which really has a more than 25% chance. From here there is little upside for Labour, and a decent chance of sufficient recovery by the Tories. (FWIW I think Lab + LD getting nicely over 325 seats but not too many would be best for the UK).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,552
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    I'm really not convinced Labour ruling with the support of the SNP would be better than Labour ruling alone.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,046
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    The questions will be (a) whether they want to hand Keir Starmer the power of majority government, and, (b) how deeply they want to bury the Conservatives under a landslide to make sure that something like the Liz Truss Ministry never happens again.

    I think Keir Starmer is potentially vulnerable in an election campaign, but it depends which question the different sides can bring uppermost in the voters' minds. I don't think there's much mileage for the Tories in trying to scare the voters with the Labour Party. The way in which the Corbynite left is now reduced to powerless sniping from the sidelines effectively defangs such an attack. They'd have to create doubts about Keir Starmer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    Untrammelled power? Starmer has already U turned on everything mildly controversial.

    I suspect I would prefer Starmer's bizarre definition of "untrammelled power" (i.e. do nothing to scare the horses) than Rishi, Cruella and Honest Bob's understanding of what a simple majority would allow them to do (namely, whatever the hell they liked).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,942
    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,659
    Cookie said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    I'm really not convinced Labour ruling with the support of the SNP would be better than Labour ruling alone.
    It would be a fecking disaster. The SNP would want their pound of flesh.Starmer,if he had any sense would persevere without a majority imho.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    algarkirk said:

    Value remains with NOM, which really has a more than 25% chance. From here there is little upside for Labour, and a decent chance of sufficient recovery by the Tories. (FWIW I think Lab + LD getting nicely over 325 seats but not too many would be best for the UK).

    What about Cons on 325/35, which is my prediction. Would that be better for the UK?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,942
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    Untrammelled power? Starmer has already U turned on everything mildly controversial.

    I suspect I would prefer Starmer's bizarre definition of "untrammelled power" (i.e. do nothing to scare the horses) than Rishi, Cruella and Honest Bob's understanding of what a simple majority would allow them to do (namely, whatever the hell they liked).
    Exactly. Lab are going to win outright but it'll nevertheless be a coalition government with the floating voters of middle England.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,943
    I think Labour will win a very clear majority.

    But, it will be built on sand.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    LostPassword said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    The questions will be (a) whether they want to hand Keir Starmer the power of majority government, and, (b) how deeply they want to bury the Conservatives under a landslide to make sure that something like the Liz Truss Ministry never happens again.

    I think Keir Starmer is potentially vulnerable in an election campaign, but it depends which question the different sides can bring uppermost in the voters' minds. I don't think there's much mileage for the Tories in trying to scare the voters with the Labour Party. The way in which the Corbynite left is now reduced to powerless sniping from the sidelines effectively defangs such an attack. They'd have to create doubts about Keir Starmer.
    Starmer for his manifold faults seems able to think on his feet somewhat more adeptly than Sunak. So if Starmer is up against Rishi, I don't believe he will be phased. Rishi is better at the set piece speeches though, but put under stress and he garbles CCHQ sound-bite gobbledegook.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    Cornwall is very pretty. I recommend it for holidays.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,024
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    Did you forget the political suicide that was announcing a dementia tax randomly in the middle of the election campaign.. That should have been trailed for months before announcing it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    You could come down here and book a “room” then spend time at the “beach”, then wander around one of the pretty little towns. Or the river valleys

    Think I’m on to something here
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,530
    eek said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    Did you forget the political suicide that was announcing a dementia tax randomly in the middle of the election campaign.. That should have been trailed for months before announcing it.
    The decisive factor in the 2017 election was the two terrorist outrages and the Tories denying their police cuts mattered. CCHQ thought so too which is why 2019 included the Tory pledge of 10,000 more police.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,724
    Good afternoon

    I was talking to a pharmacist this morning who agreed that the country is in a very bad place, and that she had no confidence in any politician and is seriously considering emigrating to New Zealand or Canada

    Coincidentally my eldest (57) did just that leaving the UK with his partner for New Zealand in 2003 and then marrying a Canadian in 2015 and moving to Vancouver where they now live

    She was very interested in my comments about both countries and my sons experiences, and at the end of the consultation she thanked me for my input and that I had convinced her Canada was a good choice

    I share her attitude to our politicians, as I believe none of them are able to take on board the many difficult and complex issues and Starmer in no 10, as seems highly likely, has not convinced me he can take any unpopular decision and while he may well be in power with a majority I see little positive change happening for quite a long time, unfortunately
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    eek said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    Did you forget the political suicide that was announcing a dementia tax randomly in the middle of the election campaign.. That should have been trailed for months before announcing it.
    It probably didn't help, but I think a lot of the hype about a huge majority gave people the thought that they would vote Labour because there was no chance Mr. Thicky Corbyn would win. If it hadnt been for Ruth Davidson he might have.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,724
    edited August 2023
    RedfieldWilton

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1691117480427585537?t=mRxdlh097KF-jbP8TdN6wQ&s=19
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,530
    NatWest apologises to homeowner for giant Marcus Rashford mural
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/natwest-sorry-giant-mural-marcus-rashford-no-permission/ (£££)

    Headline of the year?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Casino_Royale said:

    I think Labour will win a very clear majority.

    But, it will be built on sand.

    Everything Labour does generally is.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    You could come down here and book a “room” then spend time at the “beach”, then wander around one of the pretty little towns. Or the river valleys

    Think I’m on to something here

    Have you thought about trying it and then writing about your experiences? Perhaps with accompanying photographs? People love that sort of stuff.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,046
    Incumbent Prime Ministers are often asked whether they intend to serve a full term. Sunak could fairly be asked how many different PMs the country could expect if the Tories won a majority at the next election. Three? Four? More?

    If they were to replace Sunak before the next election then such questions would only be more potent. One of the great advantages the incumbent government has is that they are a known quantity and fear of the unknown is a powerful factor in British general elections.

    The suddenness with which the dementia tax policy was announced in 2017, and May's refusal to discuss Brexit specifics, created a sense of uncertainty alongside the prospect of a large Conservative majority.

    In 2019 Johnson offered the electorate his certainty of Getting Brexit Done and won comfortably.

    Regardless of what is in the Conservative manifesto for the next election, will the voters be confident that it is what they will get? The PM and the policy could end up being anyone and anything. Changing PM again would be absurd.

    Starmer no doubt believes that he is offering the electorate a comforting blancmange of boring nothingness, alongside an indistinct impression of making things better. Somehow. There's a risk of creating a sense of uncertainty there. What will Starmer do when in government? Does he even know himself?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Cookie said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    I'm really not convinced Labour ruling with the support of the SNP would be better than Labour ruling alone.
    I thing Labour ruling in a coalition with LDs would be significantly better than Labour ruling alone.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    The view from the train. Crossing the Tamar into England. Sigh….




  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,046
    Mexicanpete said:

    LostPassword said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    The questions will be (a) whether they want to hand Keir Starmer the power of majority government, and, (b) how deeply they want to bury the Conservatives under a landslide to make sure that something like the Liz Truss Ministry never happens again.

    I think Keir Starmer is potentially vulnerable in an election campaign, but it depends which question the different sides can bring uppermost in the voters' minds. I don't think there's much mileage for the Tories in trying to scare the voters with the Labour Party. The way in which the Corbynite left is now reduced to powerless sniping from the sidelines effectively defangs such an attack. They'd have to create doubts about Keir Starmer.
    Starmer for his manifold faults seems able to think on his feet somewhat more adeptly than Sunak. So if Starmer is up against Rishi, I don't believe he will be phased. Rishi is better at the set piece speeches though, but put under stress and he garbles CCHQ sound-bite gobbledegook.
    In recent elections the Tory digital strategy has been sharper, more ruthless, and better funded than Labour's, making use of a whole bunch of astroturf groups created for the purpose.

    Who knows what impression such campaigning might create of Starmer, in the absence of Starmer creating a firm positive impression in the mind of the voters beforehand.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    LostPassword said:

    Incumbent Prime Ministers are often asked whether they intend to serve a full term. Sunak could fairly be asked how many different PMs the country could expect if the Tories won a majority at the next election. Three? Four? More?

    If they were to replace Sunak before the next election then such questions would only be more potent. One of the great advantages the incumbent government has is that they are a known quantity and fear of the unknown is a powerful factor in British general elections.

    The suddenness with which the dementia tax policy was announced in 2017, and May's refusal to discuss Brexit specifics, created a sense of uncertainty alongside the prospect of a large Conservative majority.

    In 2019 Johnson offered the electorate his certainty of Getting Brexit Done and won comfortably.

    Regardless of what is in the Conservative manifesto for the next election, will the voters be confident that it is what they will get? The PM and the policy could end up being anyone and anything. Changing PM again would be absurd.

    Starmer no doubt believes that he is offering the electorate a comforting blancmange of boring nothingness, alongside an indistinct impression of making things better. Somehow. There's a risk of creating a sense of uncertainty there. What will Starmer do when in government? Does he even know himself?

    I think he is an intelligent man, so I think he does know what he will do. It just won't be that different to Sunak except in a few details of policies of pure nastiness against people that are not like him that will be thrown to the left..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,563
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    "We is alright!"
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Leon said:

    The view from the train. Crossing the Tamar into England. Sigh….




    Beautiful
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    You could come down here and book a “room” then spend time at the “beach”, then wander around one of the pretty little towns. Or the river valleys

    Think I’m on to something here

    Have you thought about trying it and then writing about your experiences? Perhaps with accompanying photographs? People love that sort of stuff.
    I like your thinking

    I reckon you could make money out of selling food to these people as well. Maybe some sort of sweet baked bread, with cream or perhaps jam on top

    Hmmm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,401
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    You could come down here and book a “room” then spend time at the “beach”, then wander around one of the pretty little towns. Or the river valleys

    Think I’m on to something here

    Have you thought about trying it and then writing about your experiences? Perhaps with accompanying photographs? People love that sort of stuff.
    I like your thinking

    I reckon you could make money out of selling food to these people as well. Maybe some sort of sweet baked bread, with cream or perhaps jam on top

    Hmmm
    I think the order needs to be established first.
    We don't want to start a controversy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    I like the way you descend from the exquisite beauty of the east Cornish river valleys to the brutal monumentality of Devonport and the nuclear subs

    It kinda says “yes this is a beautiful island, and yes we’re prepared to defend it, so fuck off if you have any ideas”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,401
    Everyone's irony meters recently serviced, I hope ?

    ‘Secretive and evasive’: Patel criticises plan to house asylum seekers at Essex RAF base
    Former home secretary demands answers from Suella Braverman about timeframe for government’s use of the site
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/14/priti-patel-criticises-plan-to-house-asylum-seekers-at-essex-raf-base
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    Except for @kinabalu

    He doesn’t want to defend Britain. He wants to give up our nukes
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,942
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,049
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    Kinnock's biggest lead against Major was 10 percent. Starmer's smallest lead this year was 11.

    1992 it ain't.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,677
    Leon said:

    Cornwall is very pretty. I recommend it for holidays.

    I endorse this message!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    Well.


  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    edited August 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
  • Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 127
    I'm still thinking a Lab government with a moderate, but perfectly serviceable majority of around 30-40 is the most likely outcome. The Cons are very unpopular across the country for a whole variety of reasons and cannot turn it
    around in the time remaining before the election. The SNP will do poorly in Scotland due to it's current travails, they may well lose 50% of their current seats (to Lab & Libs). The Libs will re-assume the position of 3rd party nationally and could end up with as many as 40 seats. An interesting proposition then could be the possibility of an agreement between Lab & Lib that could ultimately lead to pr. This can only be a good thing for the country, and a strong step in democratisation.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,814
    I think Labour Majority is still value.

    Nothing is certain, anyone who says it is, is only trying to convince themselves.

    But it has to be extremely probable at this point.

    But it's based on Tory unpopularity more than any desire for Labour. Which means probably a decade out of power for the decades, more than a decade of desire for Labour.

    The biggest unknown is how long it will take the Tories to detox.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,942
    Leon said:

    Except for @kinabalu

    He doesn’t want to defend Britain. He wants to give up our nukes

    'our nukes' ... oh dear
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,350
    Mexicanpete said:

    algarkirk said:

    Value remains with NOM, which really has a more than 25% chance. From here there is little upside for Labour, and a decent chance of sufficient recovery by the Tories. (FWIW I think Lab + LD getting nicely over 325 seats but not too many would be best for the UK).

    What about Cons on 325/35, which is my prediction. Would that be better for the UK?
    Possible of course but unlikely. Good for the country? No. I have voted Tory at GEs for nearly 50 years but not this time. They need time to work out their core principles, the ones which distinguish them from other parties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,401
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council...

    So they deserve a chance to see if they can do better than the current lot of lightweights who definitely couldn't be trusted running a small parish council ?

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Stuartinromford said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    Kinnock's biggest lead against Major was 10 percent. Starmer's smallest lead this year was 11.

    1992 it ain't.
    I don't think it is, but it is fun to piss on @kinabalu's complacent parade.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,677
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    "grown up party" 😂
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    LostPassword said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I am sort of hoping that a Labour majority gets really bigged up. I am convinced this was the reason TMay ended up where she did when it was assumed a big majority was nailed on. If the British electorate has "the wisdom of the crowds" (a questionable concept admittedly) I would question whether people really want to hand the Labour Party untrammelled power

    The questions will be (a) whether they want to hand Keir Starmer the power of majority government, and, (b) how deeply they want to bury the Conservatives under a landslide to make sure that something like the Liz Truss Ministry never happens again.

    I think Keir Starmer is potentially vulnerable in an election campaign, but it depends which question the different sides can bring uppermost in the voters' minds. I don't think there's much mileage for the Tories in trying to scare the voters with the Labour Party. The way in which the Corbynite left is now reduced to powerless sniping from the sidelines effectively defangs such an attack. They'd have to create doubts about Keir Starmer.
    We are probably 12+ months from an election and, importantly, it will be in 2024 whereas most people are thinking what is coming next in 2023.

    I think trying to predict the election now from where we stand is a dangerous game. I hope @kinabalu can trade out of his positions if required because the polls could narrow quite sharply. There are enough canaries in the coal mine to suggest that Labour has not sealed the deal when its policies / actions come under scrutiny. Uxbridge was one example but, in their own way, so was the hammering of Labour in Leicester and Slough at the locals - major issues in both towns to be sure but a Labour party trusted by voters at the national level should have given their councils some protection.

    There are also a lot of Labour's policies which will come apart under scrutiny. Take the supposed reversal of self-declaration on gender identity. It will be taken apart in 30 seconds - everyone will work out it is a sham when you just need one doctor whom you can choose to sign off as opposed to an anonymous panel of several doctors. A few other policies are like that.

    Finally, in all likelihood, 2024 is likely to see an improving situation economically - in part because the comparables get a lot easier, part because tax receipts will be very high (because of the effect of inflation), part because unemployment will remain low.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Nigelb said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council...

    So they deserve a chance to see if they can do better than the current lot of lightweights who definitely couldn't be trusted running a small parish council ?

    Yes they do, but best not give them too many ideas that they can do what they want. I rather wish we had better quality people in both parties. I cannot think of a time in my 50 odd years of life when our politicians have been so universally hopeless.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,332
    What on Earth would a Tory Party with a majority of, say, fewer than 30 actually hope to achieve?
    What would be the plan?
    How would they propose to get anything through Parliament, given they can't agree with each other on some very basic stuff?
    Isn't there just as much chance the electorate may conclude this, as think Starmer, bit of a bore?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,942
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    I'll do a spread bet with you if you like. Our views are different enough to create a good one.

    (another thread though, have to pop now, in the meantime maybe have a think where you'd pitch Lab seats and I'll do same)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    "grown up party" 😂
    Fair giggles. I will change that to a "once grown up party". The Tory Party as a grown up party will return. Labour, on the other hand, will always be a party of naïve and simplistic adolescents
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    I'll do a spread bet with you if you like. Our views are different enough to create a good one.

    (another thread though, have to pop now, in the meantime maybe have a think where you'd pitch Lab seats and I'll do same)
    I will decline your kind offer thanks. Being serious, I think there is a genuine danger Labour will get a big majority. That will be as big a menace to this country generally as it was when Johnson got one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,677
    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    You might have changed your mind by the time you reach Slough.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    You keep your purpled tor to yourself
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,727
    Nigelb said:

    Everyone's irony meters recently serviced, I hope ?

    ‘Secretive and evasive’: Patel criticises plan to house asylum seekers at Essex RAF base
    Former home secretary demands answers from Suella Braverman about timeframe for government’s use of the site
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/14/priti-patel-criticises-plan-to-house-asylum-seekers-at-essex-raf-base

    Priti Patel versus Suella Braverman.

    No biting, no eye-gouging, and no hair pulling, please!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    All together now:

    No. Shit. Sherlocks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,123
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Everyone's irony meters recently serviced, I hope ?

    ‘Secretive and evasive’: Patel criticises plan to house asylum seekers at Essex RAF base
    Former home secretary demands answers from Suella Braverman about timeframe for government’s use of the site
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/14/priti-patel-criticises-plan-to-house-asylum-seekers-at-essex-raf-base

    Priti Patel versus Suella Braverman.

    No biting, no eye-gouging, and no hair pulling, please!
    And no popcorn because it's already run out.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    If you think that's beauty, wait until you see Reading.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,563
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    If you think that's beauty, wait until you see Reading.
    By coincidence, I was at Reading yesterday, and managed to do the "underpass" linking Platform 15 with the former Southern Railway route towards Wokingham. Or more precisely the 1451 GWR service on Sundays (though there are others).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    If you think that's beauty, wait until you see Reading.
    By coincidence, I was at Reading yesterday, and managed to do the "underpass" linking Platform 15 with the former Southern Railway route towards Wokingham. Or more precisely the 1451 GWR service on Sundays (though there are others).
    You see! The wonders of our fair isle to behold.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    You might have changed your mind by the time you reach Slough.
    Tiverton Parkway by itself can knock the stuffing out of anyone poetically inclined

    In all seriousness I’ve never seen Devon and Cornwall looking so rhapsodically green and lush. It must be all the summer rain? A silver lining…
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,159
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    My dad (ex senior plod, but Wilts, not NI) is scornful of this. He cannot imagine that any of the officers exist in a community without people knowing what they do for a living. Now clearly the U.K. from the late 60’s to the 90’s (his thirty years) was different to NI (huge understatement) but I think he has a point. Surely these officers have neighbours, friends, football club mates etc who know what they do and where they live.

    Or is Dad utterly wrong on this, and they are all like Jason Bourne?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,159
    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    Well you certainly do… Mainly about the weather in London!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    turbotubbs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    My dad (ex senior plod, but Wilts, not NI) is scornful of this. He cannot imagine that any of the officers exist in a community without people knowing what they do for a living. Now clearly the U.K. from the late 60’s to the 90’s (his thirty years) was different to NI (huge understatement) but I think he has a point. Surely these officers have neighbours, friends, football club mates etc who know what they do and where they live.

    Or is Dad utterly wrong on this, and they are all like Jason Bourne?
    I daresay that you (and your Dad) are right. I guess it depends what other data other than addresses has been lost.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    It is happening.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    turbotubbs said:

    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    Well you certainly do… Mainly about the weather in London!
    Nonsense. I’m a constant ray of brightness
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,724
    Is this new ?

    US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,049
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    "grown up party" 😂
    Fair giggles. I will change that to a "once grown up party". The Tory Party as a grown up party will return. Labour, on the other hand, will always be a party of naïve and simplistic adolescents
    I hope so.

    But the pruned stump from which a grown-up party of power and the centre right can grow back is awfully small. (One of the curiosities of the Momentum years is how poor use they made of their years controlling the levers of Labour.)

    A smart leadership choice in 2025 could aspire to limiting Starmer to a single term. But it's easier to see the Conservatives taking a very long path back.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    This fucking sun is now right in my eyes. Why don’t British trains have proper blinds? Twats
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    All together now:

    No. Shit. Sherlocks.
    Bring back Roy Mason.

    I would have been a great Northern Ireland Secretary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,686
    turbotubbs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    My dad (ex senior plod, but Wilts, not NI) is scornful of this. He cannot imagine that any of the officers exist in a community without people knowing what they do for a living. Now clearly the U.K. from the late 60’s to the 90’s (his thirty years) was different to NI (huge understatement) but I think he has a point. Surely these officers have neighbours, friends, football club mates etc who know what they do and where they live.

    Or is Dad utterly wrong on this, and they are all like Jason Bourne?
    My experience of this is second hand, through my father who did two tours in NI in the early 1970s, is that they lived in their own communities and those communities would operate an omerta so no one outside would know. But they do now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,724
    Stuartinromford said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    "grown up party" 😂
    Fair giggles. I will change that to a "once grown up party". The Tory Party as a grown up party will return. Labour, on the other hand, will always be a party of naïve and simplistic adolescents
    I hope so.

    But the pruned stump from which a grown-up party of power and the centre right can grow back is awfully small. (One of the curiosities of the Momentum years is how poor use they made of their years controlling the levers of Labour.)

    A smart leadership choice in 2025 could aspire to limiting Starmer to a single term. But it's easier to see the Conservatives taking a very long path back.
    I see the one nation conservative group is meeting in September before the party conference to recommce its influence in the party

    I wish it well
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,530
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    turbotubbs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    My dad (ex senior plod, but Wilts, not NI) is scornful of this. He cannot imagine that any of the officers exist in a community without people knowing what they do for a living. Now clearly the U.K. from the late 60’s to the 90’s (his thirty years) was different to NI (huge understatement) but I think he has a point. Surely these officers have neighbours, friends, football club mates etc who know what they do and where they live.

    Or is Dad utterly wrong on this, and they are all like Jason Bourne?
    I daresay that you (and your Dad) are right. I guess it depends what other data other than addresses has been lost.
    He and his dad are right except for undercover officers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    Most important news that has come out today.

    Ben Stokes ready to come out of retirement for World Cup in ODI U-turn

    Exclusive: Stokes is willing to miss next season's Indian Premier League in order to help England's World Cup defence

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2023/08/14/ben-stokes-retirement-plays-england-cricket-world-cup-2023/

    It’s coming home.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,440
    turbotubbs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well.


    My dad (ex senior plod, but Wilts, not NI) is scornful of this. He cannot imagine that any of the officers exist in a community without people knowing what they do for a living. Now clearly the U.K. from the late 60’s to the 90’s (his thirty years) was different to NI (huge understatement) but I think he has a point. Surely these officers have neighbours, friends, football club mates etc who know what they do and where they live.

    Or is Dad utterly wrong on this, and they are all like Jason Bourne?
    Yes, but there are 2 communities, and what one knows might not be so acceptable to the other community.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Leon said:

    And now we pass out of Plymouth, between the sumptuous green slopes of south Devon, and the purpled tors of Dartmoor, and the endless rains of July have made everything throng: quite jubilant with life

    We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much

    You might have changed your mind by the time you reach Slough.
    Tiverton Parkway by itself can knock the stuffing out of anyone poetically inclined

    In all seriousness I’ve never seen Devon and Cornwall looking so rhapsodically green and lush. It must be all the summer rain? A silver lining…
    https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/current-reservoir-storages/

    Bit more rain wanted yet
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Most important news that has come out today.

    Ben Stokes ready to come out of retirement for World Cup in ODI U-turn

    Exclusive: Stokes is willing to miss next season's Indian Premier League in order to help England's World Cup defence

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2023/08/14/ben-stokes-retirement-plays-england-cricket-world-cup-2023/

    It’s coming home.

    Oooh. Even more of a hero

    When you think of the money he could have made in the IPL after this year’s Ashes. He’s giving up squillions

    He is the greatest British sportsman of the 21st century, to date. I can’t think of his equal

    Greater than Beckham

    He’s gotta be up there in the all time top-ten
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Most important news that has come out today.

    Ben Stokes ready to come out of retirement for World Cup in ODI U-turn

    Exclusive: Stokes is willing to miss next season's Indian Premier League in order to help England's World Cup defence

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2023/08/14/ben-stokes-retirement-plays-england-cricket-world-cup-2023/

    It’s coming home.

    I'm not really surprised, because I was pretty certain he wouldn't come out of retirement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,401
    edited August 2023
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this new ?

    US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump

    A premature report, I think.

    Nothing official yet.

    Tweet reporting it deleted.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,411
    Leon said:

    This fucking sun is now right in my eyes. Why don’t British trains have proper blinds? Twats

    They have these things in foreign climes for such situations, when the sun is making your eyes uncomfortable, they came up with killer branding “sunglasses”.

    They allow the individual to shade their eyes without impacting on others so all good for libertarians too.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this new ?

    US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump

    New but long-expected.

    I think the case here might well be more difficult for Trump than the Federal cases, and, if he gets re-elected and ends up being convicted, I don't think he would have the power to pardon himself, as it's a prosecution under state law. What a constitutional mess that would be, though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,724
    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this new ?

    US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump

    A premature report, I think.

    Nothing official yet.

    Tweet reporting it deleted.
    Reported by Sky

    https://news.sky.com/story/trump-charged-with-conspiracy-to-commit-forgery-by-georgia-state-prosecutors-12940075
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    I’m not sure there’s been a greater British sportsman in my entire life - than Stokes

    He’s won world cups in both white ball formats, he’s batted some of the greatest innings in the history of the sport, and he has personally (with some help) transformed the way Test cricket is played

    Who else? Beckham? Botham? I guess Bobby moore simply for lifting the World Cup? But I was about 3 weeks old and didn’t notice. Seb Coe? A fine athlete but not iconic. Steve Redgrave? It was just rowing

    Andy Murray? Bravo for winning Wimbledon after 200 years but not really in the same league in transforming a sport

    For me it is Stokes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,401
    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this new ?

    US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump

    A premature report, I think.

    Nothing official yet.

    Tweet reporting it deleted.
    Reporting direct from the courthouse, I think, if you're desperate to be first with the news:
    https://twitter.com/AnnaBower
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,841
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    oven ready?
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Leon said:

    I’m not sure there’s been a greater British sportsman in my entire life - than Stokes

    He’s won world cups in both white ball formats, he’s batted some of the greatest innings in the history of the sport, and he has personally (with some help) transformed the way Test cricket is played

    Who else? Beckham? Botham? I guess Bobby moore simply for lifting the World Cup? But I was about 3 weeks old and didn’t notice. Seb Coe? A fine athlete but not iconic. Steve Redgrave? It was just rowing

    Andy Murray? Bravo for winning Wimbledon after 200 years but not really in the same league in transforming a sport

    For me it is Stokes

    Lance Armstrong
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    It is easy to see how things could have panned out differently.


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,159
    Leon said:

    I’m not sure there’s been a greater British sportsman in my entire life - than Stokes

    He’s won world cups in both white ball formats, he’s batted some of the greatest innings in the history of the sport, and he has personally (with some help) transformed the way Test cricket is played

    Who else? Beckham? Botham? I guess Bobby moore simply for lifting the World Cup? But I was about 3 weeks old and didn’t notice. Seb Coe? A fine athlete but not iconic. Steve Redgrave? It was just rowing

    Andy Murray? Bravo for winning Wimbledon after 200 years but not really in the same league in transforming a sport

    For me it is Stokes

    He’s good, no question, but not that good. Test average in the mid thirties. He has played some crucial knocks in extreme circs for sure (WC finals) and 2019 at Edgebaston, but I’d argue the case for Botham as a better cricketer, if not as a leader.

    It’s a bit of a mugs game, if fun, to compare other sports. Arguably Steve Redgrave - sustained excellence over 5 Olympic cycles, Mo Farar double double golds, Ronnie O Sullavan for sheer brilliance, James Anderson for longevity and excellence.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,728
    Stuartinromford said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    "grown up party" 😂
    Fair giggles. I will change that to a "once grown up party". The Tory Party as a grown up party will return. Labour, on the other hand, will always be a party of naïve and simplistic adolescents
    I hope so.

    But the pruned stump from which a grown-up party of power and the centre right can grow back is awfully small. (One of the curiosities of the Momentum years is how poor use they made of their years controlling the levers of Labour.)

    A smart leadership choice in 2025 could aspire to limiting Starmer to a single term. But it's easier to see the Conservatives taking a very long path back.
    Deaths of parties are oft predicted (with failure), but if the Tories do suffer a shellacking next year I am far from convinced that the brand can survive this time.

    The stain it endures from Brexit, from the Truss debacle and (most importantly) how utterly incompetent it has been might actually be enough to see it off as a political force.

    A new party on the right could do significant damage and could kill off the Tory brand. That party might actually be significantly populist in tone (akin to AFD or the Italian populists). If Starmer falters we could see some rather interesting (and potentially concerning) electoral shifts.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,656
    Leon said:

    I’m not sure there’s been a greater British sportsman in my entire life - than Stokes

    He’s won world cups in both white ball formats, he’s batted some of the greatest innings in the history of the sport, and he has personally (with some help) transformed the way Test cricket is played

    Who else? Beckham? Botham? I guess Bobby moore simply for lifting the World Cup? But I was about 3 weeks old and didn’t notice. Seb Coe? A fine athlete but not iconic. Steve Redgrave? It was just rowing

    Andy Murray? Bravo for winning Wimbledon after 200 years but not really in the same league in transforming a sport

    For me it is Stokes

    Apart from his brand promotion, I wouldn't put Beckham in the greatness league. A couple of good free kicks, a missed penalty and a sending off: isn't that about it?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Everyone's irony meters recently serviced, I hope ?

    ‘Secretive and evasive’: Patel criticises plan to house asylum seekers at Essex RAF base
    Former home secretary demands answers from Suella Braverman about timeframe for government’s use of the site
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/14/priti-patel-criticises-plan-to-house-asylum-seekers-at-essex-raf-base

    Priti Patel versus Suella Braverman.

    No biting, no eye-gouging, and no hair pulling, please!
    A NIMBY? In the Conservative Party?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Is this new ?

    US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump

    New but long-expected.

    I think the case here might well be more difficult for Trump than the Federal cases, and, if he gets re-elected and ends up being convicted, I don't think he would have the power to pardon himself, as it's a prosecution under state law. What a constitutional mess that would be, though.
    Georgia is also unusual in the Governor not being able to grant pardons either - it's delegated to a Paroles Board.

    Some amusing tidbits from Georgia parole rules:

    "Good conduct, achievement of a fifth-grade level or higher on standardized reading tests, and efficient performance of duties by an inmate shall be considered by the board in his favor and shall merit consideration of an application for pardon or parole." So Trump better brush up on his reading skills.

    "Furthermore, no person shall be released on pardon or placed on parole unless and until the board is satisfied that he will be suitably employed in self-sustaining employment or that he will not become a public charge." Not sure if the Presidency is a plus or minus in this respect.

    "However, the board may, in its discretion, grant pardon or parole to any aged or disabled persons." Maybe Donald should consider replicating Biden's well-publicised stumbles.

  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    numbertwelve said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Lab Maj. The cake is baked. Yum yum.

    That is just what Kinnock thought sir!
    I know the past is littered with lessons against complacency (esp when it comes to Labour and elections) but I can't let this impact my betting view. Truth is, I'm anxious and will remain so till it's done but on the betting I've got a firm view now and it's a Lab majority of at least 30 with possible upside into 3 digits.

    Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...

    OFF THE TORIES
    I think there is a real chance the electorate will look at Labour, realise that this time round, with the possible exception of Starmer himself, they are in reality a collective of lightweights that shouldn't really be put in charge of running a small Parish council.

    The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
    "grown up party" 😂
    Fair giggles. I will change that to a "once grown up party". The Tory Party as a grown up party will return. Labour, on the other hand, will always be a party of naïve and simplistic adolescents
    I hope so.

    But the pruned stump from which a grown-up party of power and the centre right can grow back is awfully small. (One of the curiosities of the Momentum years is how poor use they made of their years controlling the levers of Labour.)

    A smart leadership choice in 2025 could aspire to limiting Starmer to a single term. But it's easier to see the Conservatives taking a very long path back.
    Deaths of parties are oft predicted (with failure), but if the Tories do suffer a shellacking next year I am far from convinced that the brand can survive this time.

    The stain it endures from Brexit, from the Truss debacle and (most importantly) how utterly incompetent it has been might actually be enough to see it off as a political force.

    A new party on the right could do significant damage and could kill off the Tory brand. That party might actually be significantly populist in tone (akin to AFD or the Italian populists). If Starmer falters we could see some rather interesting (and potentially concerning) electoral shifts.
    I think it will split two ways: populist anti immigrant under Braverman or someone, and a kinder, gentler, euro-curious and housebuildy lot under whoever turns out to be the next Cameron.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,332
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Leon said:

    I’m not sure there’s been a greater British sportsman in my entire life - than Stokes

    He’s won world cups in both white ball formats, he’s batted some of the greatest innings in the history of the sport, and he has personally (with some help) transformed the way Test cricket is played

    Who else? Beckham? Botham? I guess Bobby moore simply for lifting the World Cup? But I was about 3 weeks old and didn’t notice. Seb Coe? A fine athlete but not iconic. Steve Redgrave? It was just rowing

    Andy Murray? Bravo for winning Wimbledon after 200 years but not really in the same league in transforming a sport

    For me it is Stokes

    Apart from his brand promotion, I wouldn't put Beckham in the greatness league. A couple of good free kicks, a missed penalty and a sending off: isn't that about it?
    Was really impressed with Beckham whenever I saw him play live.
    You just didn't see the work he got through on TV. He was as much a workhorse as a show pony. He played Germany's midfield virtually alone at Wembley in 2000 (?). He wasn't from the very top drawer of Messi, Maradona, etc. But he wouldn't have lasted at Real Madrid if he wasn't much cop.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,687
    For the The-French-aren’t-interested-in-stopping-the-boats crowd: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66501666 Lots of boats being stopped, albeit not quite matching UK government claims.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited August 2023
    Miklosvar said:


    I think it will split two ways: populist anti immigrant under Braverman or someone, and a kinder, gentler, euro-curious and housebuildy lot under whoever turns out to be the next Cameron.

    Assuming there's no big change to the electoral system, I think it will be a repeat, on steroids, of 1997-2005. A period of the party completely out in la-la land, possibly in the worst-case scenario under Braverman initially, until repeated electoral annihilation, sheer exhaustion, and the dying off and drifting away of the extremists, finally forces the party to accept that the only way back to power is to embrace reality again. Some future David Cameron will then be chosen as leader, and begin the long, hard slog of renewal.

    This will a very slow process. I'd say two parliamentary terms as an absolute minimum, but probably three or more, given how utterly insane the party has become.
This discussion has been closed.