A LAB overall majority moves to new betting high – politicalbetting.com

The polls have been so consistent that it is not hard to understand why the betting markets see a LAB overall majority edging up on the betting markets.
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If I did have to place a bet, it would be on NOM.
I think Keir Starmer is potentially vulnerable in an election campaign, but it depends which question the different sides can bring uppermost in the voters' minds. I don't think there's much mileage for the Tories in trying to scare the voters with the Labour Party. The way in which the Corbynite left is now reduced to powerless sniping from the sidelines effectively defangs such an attack. They'd have to create doubts about Keir Starmer.
I suspect I would prefer Starmer's bizarre definition of "untrammelled power" (i.e. do nothing to scare the horses) than Rishi, Cruella and Honest Bob's understanding of what a simple majority would allow them to do (namely, whatever the hell they liked).
But, it will be built on sand.
Think I’m on to something here
I was talking to a pharmacist this morning who agreed that the country is in a very bad place, and that she had no confidence in any politician and is seriously considering emigrating to New Zealand or Canada
Coincidentally my eldest (57) did just that leaving the UK with his partner for New Zealand in 2003 and then marrying a Canadian in 2015 and moving to Vancouver where they now live
She was very interested in my comments about both countries and my sons experiences, and at the end of the consultation she thanked me for my input and that I had convinced her Canada was a good choice
I share her attitude to our politicians, as I believe none of them are able to take on board the many difficult and complex issues and Starmer in no 10, as seems highly likely, has not convinced me he can take any unpopular decision and while he may well be in power with a majority I see little positive change happening for quite a long time, unfortunately
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1691117480427585537?t=mRxdlh097KF-jbP8TdN6wQ&s=19
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/natwest-sorry-giant-mural-marcus-rashford-no-permission/ (£££)
Headline of the year?
If they were to replace Sunak before the next election then such questions would only be more potent. One of the great advantages the incumbent government has is that they are a known quantity and fear of the unknown is a powerful factor in British general elections.
The suddenness with which the dementia tax policy was announced in 2017, and May's refusal to discuss Brexit specifics, created a sense of uncertainty alongside the prospect of a large Conservative majority.
In 2019 Johnson offered the electorate his certainty of Getting Brexit Done and won comfortably.
Regardless of what is in the Conservative manifesto for the next election, will the voters be confident that it is what they will get? The PM and the policy could end up being anyone and anything. Changing PM again would be absurd.
Starmer no doubt believes that he is offering the electorate a comforting blancmange of boring nothingness, alongside an indistinct impression of making things better. Somehow. There's a risk of creating a sense of uncertainty there. What will Starmer do when in government? Does he even know himself?
Who knows what impression such campaigning might create of Starmer, in the absence of Starmer creating a firm positive impression in the mind of the voters beforehand.
I reckon you could make money out of selling food to these people as well. Maybe some sort of sweet baked bread, with cream or perhaps jam on top
Hmmm
We don't want to start a controversy.
It kinda says “yes this is a beautiful island, and yes we’re prepared to defend it, so fuck off if you have any ideas”
‘Secretive and evasive’: Patel criticises plan to house asylum seekers at Essex RAF base
Former home secretary demands answers from Suella Braverman about timeframe for government’s use of the site
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/14/priti-patel-criticises-plan-to-house-asylum-seekers-at-essex-raf-base
He doesn’t want to defend Britain. He wants to give up our nukes
Hard to believe I can do this (as regards GE24) to the most electorally successful political party in UK history but I feel I can and just to prove it I'll go ahead and do it right now below ...
OFF THE TORIES
1992 it ain't.
The electorate will therefore kick the Tories out, because they deserve it, but give Labour a very small majority, giving the grown-up party time to fix itself from it's aberration years under Johnson and come back to its rightful place as the natural party of government.
Unilateralist lefty Chartered Accountants will grind their teeth in fury.
around in the time remaining before the election. The SNP will do poorly in Scotland due to it's current travails, they may well lose 50% of their current seats (to Lab & Libs). The Libs will re-assume the position of 3rd party nationally and could end up with as many as 40 seats. An interesting proposition then could be the possibility of an agreement between Lab & Lib that could ultimately lead to pr. This can only be a good thing for the country, and a strong step in democratisation.
Nothing is certain, anyone who says it is, is only trying to convince themselves.
But it has to be extremely probable at this point.
But it's based on Tory unpopularity more than any desire for Labour. Which means probably a decade out of power for the decades, more than a decade of desire for Labour.
The biggest unknown is how long it will take the Tories to detox.
I think trying to predict the election now from where we stand is a dangerous game. I hope @kinabalu can trade out of his positions if required because the polls could narrow quite sharply. There are enough canaries in the coal mine to suggest that Labour has not sealed the deal when its policies / actions come under scrutiny. Uxbridge was one example but, in their own way, so was the hammering of Labour in Leicester and Slough at the locals - major issues in both towns to be sure but a Labour party trusted by voters at the national level should have given their councils some protection.
There are also a lot of Labour's policies which will come apart under scrutiny. Take the supposed reversal of self-declaration on gender identity. It will be taken apart in 30 seconds - everyone will work out it is a sham when you just need one doctor whom you can choose to sign off as opposed to an anonymous panel of several doctors. A few other policies are like that.
Finally, in all likelihood, 2024 is likely to see an improving situation economically - in part because the comparables get a lot easier, part because tax receipts will be very high (because of the effect of inflation), part because unemployment will remain low.
What would be the plan?
How would they propose to get anything through Parliament, given they can't agree with each other on some very basic stuff?
Isn't there just as much chance the electorate may conclude this, as think Starmer, bit of a bore?
(another thread though, have to pop now, in the meantime maybe have a think where you'd pitch Lab seats and I'll do same)
We moan an awful lot. But, you know, sometimes, perhaps we moan too much
No biting, no eye-gouging, and no hair pulling, please!
No. Shit. Sherlocks.
In all seriousness I’ve never seen Devon and Cornwall looking so rhapsodically green and lush. It must be all the summer rain? A silver lining…
Or is Dad utterly wrong on this, and they are all like Jason Bourne?
US state of Georgia files legal action against Trump
But the pruned stump from which a grown-up party of power and the centre right can grow back is awfully small. (One of the curiosities of the Momentum years is how poor use they made of their years controlling the levers of Labour.)
A smart leadership choice in 2025 could aspire to limiting Starmer to a single term. But it's easier to see the Conservatives taking a very long path back.
I would have been a great Northern Ireland Secretary.
I wish it well
Ben Stokes ready to come out of retirement for World Cup in ODI U-turn
Exclusive: Stokes is willing to miss next season's Indian Premier League in order to help England's World Cup defence
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2023/08/14/ben-stokes-retirement-plays-england-cricket-world-cup-2023/
It’s coming home.
Bit more rain wanted yet
When you think of the money he could have made in the IPL after this year’s Ashes. He’s giving up squillions
He is the greatest British sportsman of the 21st century, to date. I can’t think of his equal
Greater than Beckham
He’s gotta be up there in the all time top-ten
Nothing official yet.
Tweet reporting it deleted.
They allow the individual to shade their eyes without impacting on others so all good for libertarians too.
I think the case here might well be more difficult for Trump than the Federal cases, and, if he gets re-elected and ends up being convicted, I don't think he would have the power to pardon himself, as it's a prosecution under state law. What a constitutional mess that would be, though.
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-charged-with-conspiracy-to-commit-forgery-by-georgia-state-prosecutors-12940075
He’s won world cups in both white ball formats, he’s batted some of the greatest innings in the history of the sport, and he has personally (with some help) transformed the way Test cricket is played
Who else? Beckham? Botham? I guess Bobby moore simply for lifting the World Cup? But I was about 3 weeks old and didn’t notice. Seb Coe? A fine athlete but not iconic. Steve Redgrave? It was just rowing
Andy Murray? Bravo for winning Wimbledon after 200 years but not really in the same league in transforming a sport
For me it is Stokes
https://twitter.com/AnnaBower
It’s a bit of a mugs game, if fun, to compare other sports. Arguably Steve Redgrave - sustained excellence over 5 Olympic cycles, Mo Farar double double golds, Ronnie O Sullavan for sheer brilliance, James Anderson for longevity and excellence.
The stain it endures from Brexit, from the Truss debacle and (most importantly) how utterly incompetent it has been might actually be enough to see it off as a political force.
A new party on the right could do significant damage and could kill off the Tory brand. That party might actually be significantly populist in tone (akin to AFD or the Italian populists). If Starmer falters we could see some rather interesting (and potentially concerning) electoral shifts.
Some amusing tidbits from Georgia parole rules:
"Good conduct, achievement of a fifth-grade level or higher on standardized reading tests, and efficient performance of duties by an inmate shall be considered by the board in his favor and shall merit consideration of an application for pardon or parole." So Trump better brush up on his reading skills.
"Furthermore, no person shall be released on pardon or placed on parole unless and until the board is satisfied that he will be suitably employed in self-sustaining employment or that he will not become a public charge." Not sure if the Presidency is a plus or minus in this respect.
"However, the board may, in its discretion, grant pardon or parole to any aged or disabled persons." Maybe Donald should consider replicating Biden's well-publicised stumbles.
You just didn't see the work he got through on TV. He was as much a workhorse as a show pony. He played Germany's midfield virtually alone at Wembley in 2000 (?). He wasn't from the very top drawer of Messi, Maradona, etc. But he wouldn't have lasted at Real Madrid if he wasn't much cop.
This will a very slow process. I'd say two parliamentary terms as an absolute minimum, but probably three or more, given how utterly insane the party has become.