Trump indictment has little impact on the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Trump indictment has little impact on the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
But it is surely going to have a huge impact on the campaign. As to the political impact these are a couple of reactions.
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Biden winning would be a weird mix of intense relief and existential despair at the Free World being led by a clearly senile, weird, selfish old twat who was born in the Pleistocene
That’s the truly dysfunctional thing. American politics is so fucked up it will give its voters this terrible choice TWICE, and the second time around they are even madder and older. This despite polls - esp on the Democrat side - saying they really would like an alternative candidate, please
Biden must take some of the blame here. He should have accepted his age in 2020, and then groomed and promoted a likely younger successor. But he is selfish and vain
Effect on the actual election: Well, that's harder to assess. Clearly, a large chunk of the voters who supported him at the time of the last election will continue to do so even if they see him being dragged down to hell for well-justified punishment, as in the last act of Don Giovanni. But there must be voters at the margin who are more like traditional Republicans, able to see him for what he is, and already less likely to vote form him even though they might have done in 2020. In between, and assuming the prosecution case is as solid as it appears to be (the Georgia state case perhaps even more so), there must be some for whom the increasingly specific evidence will begin to sow doubts. On the uncommitted Biden-tolerant or Biden-leaning side, this will help shore up Biden's support.
Relative, therefore, to 2020, the indictments must be negative for Trump overall. Trouble is, there aren't many uncommitted or sane-Republican voters left in the polarised world of today.
Trump will not become President again.
But then, did he not notice she is thick as shit?
It’s fairly obvious at particular moments, eg when she talks
The idiot wants to invest in public transport and cycling, and has highlighted the massive increase in pedestrian casualties due to SUVs. Silly.
Worth remembering how simply not going along with all the madness saw some officials censured and thein successfully primaried - so why some of those outraged by Jan 6th thought Trump would fade away is bizarre.
https://eu.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2023/08/02/trump-indictment-details-rusty-bowers-arizona-republican-role/70510669007/
For an old guy he's actually pretty spritely, I know he fell over but he got up way faster and easier than any of my relatives would at that age.
I don't really follow who he could have groomed to take over other than Harris, who many seem to dislike more, so whilst the selfishness point might have some truth it also doesn't seem obvious who would do better - it's just unfotunate that several key states were razor thin victories, and so any reduction for Biden could be fatal. Especially with state legislatures probably wiser on ways to try to suppress the vote this time.
I would like to point out that SNP have the lowest average this year. Not a good indication for them with Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/us/politics/rfk-jr-donors.html
TL;DR, more than half of his total donations come from Timothy Mellon, who is a mega-Trump donor.
And once he wins and takes over it doesn't matter how long he lasts (with all respect to Joe).
I mean, come on, Harris is not beloved but is probably just normal politician crap at worst.
*Other than Trump, who will now definitely want a VP who will never display a backbone, even as belatedly as Pence (even though Pence is still plenty servile). I did like the story in the indictment that Pence phoned Trump to wish him a merry christmas, and Trump immediately turned things round to the election.
His issue for the next election is his age, or more precisely perceptions of his age. Only that..
You can defend him on each of these points in certain respects, and can argue he's had successes too, and that's all fine - I'd tend to agree on some of that. But I don't think you can realistically say you can't point to Biden policy failures.
How about the Afghanistan Withdrawal?
As others have noted, this calamity emboldened Putin, and likely led - in part - to Ukraine
The bullshit that comes out of his mouth really boils my piss.
From looking at the USA, I think the old saying could have "Tory MPs" swapped for "Conservatives".
Are the Dems prone to money scandals? It would be nice to establish a General Rule of Politics
She wasn't 3 years ago.
He's a dickhead.
...
Decision leaves panel to press ahead with ruling that could amount to first doping ban for actions of a staff member during tenure of Sir Dave Brailsford at Team Sky and British Cycling
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/former-british-cycling-doctor-richard-freeman-will-not-defend-himself-against-anti-doping-charges-bcx0tp38f (£££)
Surely every red-blooded Englishman must be grateful for that snub to the French.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-66307905
Biden 81 million votes
Trump 74 million votes
I'm lovely, but I'm also vindictive enough to think they deserve that experience.
"Fascist societies rhetorically cast their enemies as "at the same time too strong and too weak". On the one hand, fascists play up the power of certain disfavored elites to encourage in their followers a sense of grievance and humiliation. On the other hand, fascist leaders point to the decadence of those elites as proof of their ultimate feebleness in the face of an overwhelming popular will."
They are better to go the full nationalist, and make SLAB out to mean rule from London by Londoners. Unfair and untrue, but that's politics.
They will though act to drive up Dem turnout .
Trump's numbers in Iowa, if it were next month, would be huge.
Next January ? We will see.
He's in huge legal jeopardy, and it's a long time until the nomination is settled.
The invasion would have been just as likely - perhaps more so, were the US still ensnared in Afghanistan.
The stage was set much earlier, when the west waved through the annexation of Crimea.
1. Obama
Edit, and provisionally
2. Reagan
Neither will be able to be in general population. Other prisoners will be out to get them.
37% of Republicans are "Trump is the only one for me"
35% are "I like Trump, but he may not be the best choice"
And then about 25% are "I would prefer it not to be Trump"
Right now, about half that middle block of 35% are backing Trump in the polls, but they are concerned about his electability in the Presidential election.
If someone else comes along and looks more electable, then they can win. And four or five months ago, that person looked like Ron DeSantis. But RDS has been a disaster.
For Trump to lose the nomination, you need the 25% of not-Trumpers to coalesce around a candidate, and - at the same time - you need that candidate to attract 60% of the "I like Trump, but am concerned about his electability."
How could that happen?
Well, Iowa. Trump will win Iowa (in all probability). But if there's only one obvious challenger, and that person has broad appeal, then it could be a very interesting Republican primary season.
And I think @williamglenn has got this one right: this is Chris Christie's opportunity. He can attract essentially all the 25% of the never-Trumpers, and he can be more electable than Trump. I think he's a really interesting bet, and at more than 20-1 for the Presidency, I'd be putting a little cash on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US–Taliban_deal
By inauguration day in 2021 80% of the USA forces that had been there a year earlier had been withdrawn, closing 5 bases and more or less ceasing air support for Afghan and other NATO forces. Only 2500 were left.
In theory Biden could have announced a complete reversal, but in reality the die was cast. Worth noting that the UK had pulled out combat troops in 2014, leaving only a few advisors, training units and embassy guards.
*"The Art of the Deal" consisting of a deal remarkably like the Munich agreement between Chamberlain and Hitler. That didn't have any representative of the country being negotiated over either.
Renews my faith in the Whig (& Woke) Theory of History.
Biden and Trump are both buys: they should be, respectively, 45% and 35% chances.
RFK is a straight sell. (True chance 0.1%)
Newsom is also a sell, albeit not quite as obviously as RFK.
DeSantis is about right.
Instead, put money on Christie and Harris. (Christie because he has a viable, if narrow path. Harris because if Biden keels over, she becomes President, and then the de facto nominee, despite being a pretty terrible candidate.)
I was quite impressed by his verbal facility.
It's also clear his supporters favour abandoning Ukraine to Putin by withdrawing all US military and financial support but let's be clear - Republicans have "form" when it comes to abandoning allies - Nixon and Kissinger handed South Vietnam to the Communist north.
Someone on here was complaining about Biden being "anti-British" - Trump would sell out NATO and abandon Europe to Putin if he thought he could get away with it. He's a naive fool when it comes to foreign policy and a much greater threat to us if re-elected than a second Biden term.
(Though the headline will still boil Casino's piss. I fear for his bladder health.)
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/09/uk/sunak-restored-us-uk-relationship-intl-cmd/index.html
Sunak's NI deal has greatly improved relations.
More attractive a candidate than Christie, with less baggage overall, and fewer downsides for Trump supporters.
South Carolina steel magnolia contrasted with New Jersey discredited hack.
Or am I missing something here?
It is amusing you cannot be a county, district or parish councillor for 5 years here if you get even a 3 month suspended sentence and you cannot be an MP if serving a sentence of more than a year but you can be the most powerful man on earth and US President even if serving a sentence of years in jail at the time you are elected
That's how he wore out his welcome back in New Jersey.
The world has gone mad
England has 46-26-11 which is a 16.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat. That still puts Labour firmly in landslide territory with 210-230 Conservative MPs losing their seats allowing for a bit of tactical voting.
Lab 36%
SNP 27%
Con 13%
In general, the USA pulling back from its world wide hegemony would probably be a good thing, but Taiwan and Ukraine likely to suffer.