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A LAB gain opens as 90% favourite in the Rutherglen by-election – politicalbetting.com
A LAB gain opens as 90% favourite in the Rutherglen by-election – politicalbetting.com
The big political story this afternoon is that the SNP MP, Margeret Ferrier, has lost her seat following a successful recall petition. This means a by-election in what was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019.
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Just imagine if it was announced 2 days before the by election that Sturgeon and her husband were getting charged.
That would be suboptimal for the SNP in this seat.
Yousaf would be under pressure to suspend Sturgeon.
During the second half of August, there is a greater chance of more settled spells developing, with warmer and drier conditions becoming slightly more likely than the unseasonably unsettled weather of July. However, unsettled conditions are never too far away and so there will likely still be some spells of rain or showers for many areas from time to time. Temperatures look like they will recover to at least average, or a little above, however any prolonged dry or hot spells appear to be unlikely.
A weak SNP is good news for the Tories.
If someone wanted to drive from say Winwick to Widnes would the only option be to drive along A roads or would getting onto and then off the motorway be an option?
And what would be the speed limit of say the Weston Point Expressway once you get off the motorway?
According to Google Maps that's 11 miles, 15 minutes by car, 57 minutes by public transport, and 48 minutes by bike.
What about say Winwick to Frodsham? Again A roads only, or do you think you might be able to get on the M6, M56 and use local roads only for the first and last distance?
According to Google Maps that's 22 minutes by car, 1 hour 27 minutes by bike and 48 minutes by public transport.
So tell me again please how cars are slower and less efficient than bikes and public transport?
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-1-2-july-2023/
Labour should therefore win Rutherglen by a comfortable 14% margin in the by election, more with Tory and LD tactical voting for Labour.
Indeed Labour gains in Scotland combined with the Labour majority in Wales could ensure a Starmer Labour majority in the UK overall even if Labour fall short of a majority in England
Or do you just not want to admit you're wrong?
Not after the latest SKS news.
It's about as useful as a kipper with the meat eaten and left out for the seagulls for a week.
Meanwhile Yougov this week finds Scots back the UK government's policy of more oil and gas licenses in the North Sea which the SNP oppose by a huge 48% to 27% margin, even more than the 42% to 27% margin UK wide
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/07/31/aac1f/1
In any case, a strong showing from the SNP would send a message to England that Labour can't be relied upon to weaken the SNP and thus reduce the possibility of the SNP ending up in government.
Mind, it might fund a few new players for The Toon.
I don't see the next GE as a done deal.
It makes a change from everyone taking chunks out of the conservatives
https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1686456824000593920
It's a tough thing for the average voter to calculate, so it would be a significant event.
One of the most effective political posters of my lifetime.
Scotland as the Tories are in England. Yet even worse the supposed 'progressive' Scots love their fossil fuels even more than the English what with those well paid oil rig jobs and need to keep warm in winter
It is going to be be a very bitter contest
She's a British citizen / UK passport holder and has been for nearly fifteen years. She desperately wants to get her family out of Russia
She thinks it's impossible because they wouldn't be able to get visas to come here permanently
Her family is her parents, her sister and niece
Her Dad has property and business interests, with a bit of time to sell up he could support himself and Mum. Her sister is an excellent linguist who currently teaches English and Russian to kids in Siberia. She could probably teach English grammar to English kids
They hate Putin and want out
How hard would it be for them to come here permanently?
I've told her she should write to her MP and ask for help and advice, but I'm not sure how to help beyond that
Does anyone have any thoughts?
Feels like it would be simpler to stick with the former, however it might look silly (you never know, they might get lucky with a jury), than just decide to abandon that equality before the law business. What if they want to charge Biden when he leaves office?
Steve Bannon wants Trump to pick RFK Jr as a running mate:
“You could get 60 percent or higher in the country.”
https://nitter.net/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1686457083401486357#m
(2021) Mitch McConnell savages Trump – minutes after voting to acquit
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/13/mitch-mcconnell-trump-republicans
...McConnell argued the Senate could not convict Trump because he had left office before the Senate trial began – a timeline McConnell orchestrated as Senate majority leader after refusing Democrats’ requests to call the Senate into an emergency session in January.
The House impeached Trump for a second time in his final days in office, but McConnell delayed starting the Senate trial until after Joe Biden was sworn in.
McConnell said the Senate was not meant to serve as a “moral tribunal” and said Trump could still be open to criminal prosecution.
“President Trump is still liable for everything he did while he’s in office,” McConnell said. “He didn’t get away with anything yet.”..
Indeed around 196,000 jobs are supported by the industry in Scotland
https://www.nature.scot/professional-advice/land-and-sea-management/managing-coasts-and-seas/oil-and-gas#:~:text=Scotland is thought to be,around 196,000 jobs in Scotland.
https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=200;o=0;b=;ts=1;y=46.8728;x=4.6966;z=5;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;as=22-10-23T18;ts24=0;
Zoom out and check out Croatia! Also, Scilly Isles nearer to home.
In 1964 and Feb 1974 Wilson needed Scottish and Welsh Labour seats and votes, Home and Heath won a majority of seats in England.
Starmer is more Wilson in style than Blair 1997, perhaps Rishi will get closer than expected like his fellow Toff Sir Alec?
It wasn't anti Scottish sentiment, they didn't like the concept of Salmond/The SNP anywhere near the levers of power.
They admired Salmond's skills and thought he'd walk all over Ed Miliband, which made it a doubly bad idea.
They kept waiting for something to ruin him, but bent the knee when the opportunities arose anyway.
on the 45% they got in 2019
and heading for their worst result since 2010 and losing their majority with the Greens at Holyrood too in 2026
I was looking at a Scottish Government report on the oil industry, actually.
Mass murder is only "fascinating in a satanically macabre way" for a sick arsehole.
Leon, you'll probably get off on the "Serb cutter" knife used in Jasenovac concentration camp, including by Petar Brzica, who is said to have murdered 1360 prisoners in one night. (They had a contest.) Goodness knows what his real score was. Does it matter? They had a competition to see who could murder the most prisoners. That does matter.
Mass murder tourism is vile and reminiscent of the character R M Renfield in Dracula who feeds flies to spiders, and spiders to birds, and then wants to get a cat.
Even further off topic but in the spirit of Leon’s earlier incarnation as Michael Portillo battlefields and castles, I have an industrial history recommendation. I’m spending the week working from an Airbnb rental in Cromford in Derbyshire, for reasons too complicated to go into here. It’s a fascinating place: the Derwent valley, cradle of the Industrial Revolution. Richard Arkwright built arguably the world’s first proper factory here in the 1780s, then built the village to house the workers.
We do industrial heritage very well in Britain. Derwent Valley, Beamish, Ironbridge, the Black Country museum, Chatham dockyard, all really worthwhile places to visit. This one’s a revelation to me. There’s no way I’d be spending a summer week in the Derby Dales we’re it not for family exigencies taking us up to the North midlands and a cancelled holiday in Georgia on account of broken ribs (todays the day we were due to be driving up to Kazbegi in the Caucasus).
It was a narrow escape!
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1686467372415090689
We’ve brought in employees from former Soviet states in recent years but the sponsored visa is key, and they take time.
Much easier I assume to go somewhere like Armenia or Azerbaijan, Turkey, maybe UAE. In the EU given fathers business perhaps Cyprus.
I'm fairly agnostic on the matter of whether or not England or Scotland would be better off together or apart. I think a desire for Scottish independence a perfectly respectable position. But the SNP themselves are not to be trusted. Honestly, I'd rather have Corbyn in the cabinet than Sturgeon.
Yes - the Embankment.
I'm honestly not sure why you say that, or the basis for the doubt. That is TFL data from a series that has been published for about 10-15 (?) years now iirc. I expect it is actually rather higher, if anything. If there was an issue with it, the Daily Mail would have had a fit by now
The normal saturation flow for a dedicated cycle track is specified as 1 per second per metre of track width, which is doable but not very comfortable. I've clipped the data table from the LTN 1/20 standard below. 5 cyclists per minute is the max flow deemed acceptable on a 3m wide shared pedestrian / cycle path.
Here is a short clip of 3 cyclists per second on half of a similar cycle track in London. Physically quite doable, and reduction would perhaps be caused by lights etc, but then it will get priority most of the time since the cars will sitting more or less still in their lanes of traffic jam at peak hour.
https://youtu.be/CxpJL8RWRWg?t=259
All I can suggest is next time you visit take 15 minutes in a rush hour to count them !
I don't know whether your final para is ironic. Rishi Sunak isn't a toff. He may be an out of touch twat who doesn't have a clue about how ordinary people live their lives (the last Tory leader who may possibly have had a clue was John Major) but that doesn't make him a toff.
https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1686462011918467073
Labour beating the SNP is an excellent opportunity to position themselves as the (or at the very least a) tactical unionist choice, and hopefully stifle any Tory resurgence at SNP expense.
https://www.prospects.ac.uk/jobs-and-work-experience/job-sectors/energy-and-utilities/jobs-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry
People who work for Trump, outside perhaps his long term core associates, need to stop doing anything he says without question.
On the AG candidate, it's not hard to imagine several more officials may be at it. And accusations of it will be rife in any case. But thankfully many of the worst did not get elected.
Next you'll be telling us we should be grateful for the wise, far seeing government that you impose upon us.
There's some basic information on the CA public site here: https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/immigration/
That makes me confident that Alba will not do well whilst Salmond is in charge.
Cheers guys.
But DJT-RFKjr would stir the pot, though the pain might outweigh the gain. However, same obviously true of Trump!
Another question: Bannon thinks it's a peachy keen idea, however am WAY less sure that actual Republicans will concur.
Starting with Tim Scott . . .
. . .from the Way-Back Machine:
In 1864, Abraham Lincoln was re-nominated by Republicans for POTUS, but incumbent VP Hannibal Hamilin was skipped over, in favor of "War Democrat" Andrew Johnson; Lincoln & Johnson then ran as "Union" ticket, and were elected over Democratic nominees, George McClellan, also a War Democrat, and George Pendleton, a "Peace Democrat".