politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Thursday’s S Yorkshire PCC by election is close then CON
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The Earl of Bute?Patrick said:Mike,
This from Yougov is surely worth a thread:
http://order-order.com/2014/10/27/ed-miliband-ratings-still-tanking/
Dave is slowly but surely improving (and WAY ahead of Redward) while Redward's nosedive into the Hollande zone continues apace. Has a leader in this position ever become PM?0 -
That's fair enough, though you do have Jay Rodriguez to come back and presumably money available in January if required.JonnyJimmy said:
I'm not really looking for odds (have been on a top 4 finish at 12/1 for a few weeks and quite happy with that), I wanted to test your assertion!nigel4england said:
Just pushing my luck!!JonnyJimmy said:
You want 3/1?!?!?!nigel4england said:
Not sure how to price it and no markets around to give us a guide, any suggestions?
They are currently five points clear of Arsenal in fifth with a vastly superior goal difference, if I am betting they won't be in the top four on Jan 15th I will want at least 3/1.
So "they won't be in the top four by the middle of January" means "I think there's a 75% chance they will be in the top four by the middle of January"?
If something "won't" happen, that's surely got to at least mean that it's highly unlikely (if you're speaking English)...
Even if you were offering me 3/1, that would be fair odds for two heads from two coin tosses, not fair odds for something that "won't" happen
I don't think they will be in the top four after that run of games, though as I said the City, Chelsea and Everton games are at home.
What odds are you looking for?
Saints do have a very tough mid-November to mid-January but I'm not worried about any of the games in isolation. I think we'll give anyone a good game at the moment and likely take some points off our toughest fixtures. Our two losses were both away and we deserved at least a point off Liverpool, and played our worst game so far against Spurs.
What worries me is an injury to any of Pellè, Tadic or Forster - we don't have any cover at GK and our cover for the first two is nowhere near their quality. We've pretty good cover elsewhere
I was having a look around after your first post and think I have found a worthwhile bet.
Koeman is 8/1 with Paddy to be LMA Manager of the Year, up until now his only rival is Big Sam. If Saints do hold it together then that is a cracking bet.
It has been won over the years by such luminairies as George Burley, Danny Wilson, Steve Coppell twice etc.
No way will they ever give it to Mourinho or Pellegrini so the field is wide open.0 -
Findlay is 14-1 at Skybet too btw.0
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An observation about Miliband. Assuming he keeps his office, and that the GE is in early May as scheduled, Miliband will by then by the third-longest-serving leader of the Labour Party since Wilson.0
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I don't think I have ever come to the end of the M67 heading East without encountering an appalling queue of traffic grinding its way through some of the most miserable villages (mainly due to the presence of a congested road) i have ever seen.Pulpstar said:
It's definitely needed !JosiasJessop said:
There is very large support for HS2 amongst northern, Labour, councils, who see it as a way of aiding redevelopment and attracting business. Labour are pressed between supporting those councils and attempting to differentiate themselves from the Conservatives, especially in the south.Pulpstar said:
"Well there might be 'big benefits' for people in Leeds if they do a lot of rail travel to other cities in 20+ years and its paid for on an expenses account."JosiasJessop said:
What is this 'expenses account' comment you use against any high-speed rail project?another_richard said:
Well there might be 'big benefits' for people in Leeds if they do a lot of rail travel to other cities in 20+ years and its paid for on an expenses account.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Yorkshire is the air this morning. HS3 being talked up.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/debate/columnists/big-benefits-for-north-in-high-speed-rail-revolution-1-6917753
But that's rather a small proportion of Yorkshire people.
This government's obsession with big cities is another example of the PPEocrachy mentality.
A few billion spent on higher speed broadband would bring a lot more benefit to a lot more people and a lot quicker.
High-speed broadband is to be welcomed, but until we can teleport, it is no replacement for travel.
Hint: look at the rise of the Internet over the last twenty years, and look how rail travel has doubled in that same period. The Internet is doing nothing to stop people needing to travel, and the vast majority of jobs cannot be done remotely. Skype is no replacement for meeting people face-to-face.
They'll be northern Tories. My guess for this announcement would be to try and sure up the West Yorkshire marginal crucial Tory vote in places like Elmet, Pudsey, Dewsbury whilst the more working class Labour vote splits off to UKIP...........
I'[d guess Labour would go for HS3 too but the Cons got there first and are in Gov't so can "own" the announcement more.
HS3 is a very different beast. In fact, I doubt the final plans would warrant the 'hs' prefix in the same way HS1 and 2 did. It's more likely to be a series of route speed-ups, akin to EGIP in Scotland, with perhaps new tunnelling under the Pennines. But anyone who has travelled on rails up north knows it is needed.
And the M67 should be finished.0 -
That is a good bet. Considering that the 'experts' were tipping us to go down pre-season after the summer exodus, even a mid-table finish should be good enough for Koeman to be in the running. If we qualify for Europe he'll be a shoo-in (unless Big Sam really is as good as he says, ie better than Pellegrini!)nigel4england said:
That's fair enough, though you do have Jay Rodriguez to come back and presumably money available in January if required.JonnyJimmy said:
I'm not really looking for odds (have been on a top 4 finish at 12/1 for a few weeks and quite happy with that), I wanted to test your assertion!nigel4england said:
Just pushing my luck!!JonnyJimmy said:
You want 3/1?!?!?!nigel4england said:
Not sure how to price it and no markets around to give us a guide, any suggestions?
They are currently five points clear of Arsenal in fifth with a vastly superior goal difference, if I am betting they won't be in the top four on Jan 15th I will want at least 3/1.
So "they won't be in the top four by the middle of January" means "I think there's a 75% chance they will be in the top four by the middle of January"?
If something "won't" happen, that's surely got to at least mean that it's highly unlikely (if you're speaking English)...
Even if you were offering me 3/1, that would be fair odds for two heads from two coin tosses, not fair odds for something that "won't" happen
I don't think they will be in the top four after that run of games, though as I said the City, Chelsea and Everton games are at home.
What odds are you looking for?
Saints do have a very tough mid-November to mid-January but I'm not worried about any of the games in isolation. I think we'll give anyone a good game at the moment and likely take some points off our toughest fixtures. Our two losses were both away and we deserved at least a point off Liverpool, and played our worst game so far against Spurs.
What worries me is an injury to any of Pellè, Tadic or Forster - we don't have any cover at GK and our cover for the first two is nowhere near their quality. We've pretty good cover elsewhere
I was having a look around after your first post and think I have found a worthwhile bet.
Koeman is 8/1 with Paddy to be LMA Manager of the Year, up until now his only rival is Big Sam. If Saints do hold it together then that is a cracking bet.
It has been won over the years by such luminairies as George Burley, Danny Wilson, Steve Coppell twice etc.
No way will they ever give it to Mourinho or Pellegrini so the field is wide open.0 -
I see Con Majority is taking a walk on betfair, out to 5.6 (last traded). This seems to be at odds with the recent trend in polling, although of course time is running out too.
Although I'm very heavily NOM in general, this is now looking a bit too big, imo. Though if you wait until after Rochester you may get an even bigger price.
Conversely, Lab Majority at 3.4 looks an absolutely thumping lay, especially when you take into account their Scottish troubles too.
My approx position is: NOM +11, Lab Maj -11, Con Maj +1.0 -
Off topic. What is surprising about the resignation from Lamont is the way that the UK media have not gone after Miliband over this. Lamont attacked the way Miliband's Leadership and team were treating SLAB. There are a number of lines of questioning about what Miliband did and did not do. Yet the media follow up has been very limp. Is this being treated as a minor matter in a far off country? Or is this the quiet before the storm? How hard will the next hack to interview Miliband dig into how he has handled relationships with SLAB? Anas Sarwar came across at the weekend as a lightweight with little grasp of the underlying problems within SLAB.0
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"...of which we know little"? That may explain it on a UK basis.TCPoliticalBetting said:"... Yet the media follow up has been very limp.
Is this being treated as a minor matter in a far off country ..."0 -
If Miliband fails then Blair will be the only Labour Leader to win a GE in a 40 year period.david_herdson said:An observation about Miliband. Assuming he keeps his office, and that the GE is in early May as scheduled, Miliband will by then by the third-longest-serving leader of the Labour Party since Wilson.
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It would have been a bigger issue if it had been Brown, Darling or even Murphy attacking him. Firstly, Holyrood is indeed a far-off country to the Westminster Lobby journalists, who I suspect have no great familiarity with the politicians there (or in Cardiff), and therefore treat comments with as much weight as they'd give the mayor of Torbay or wherever. Secondly, even if they are relatively well-educated on Scottish matters, they'd know that Lamont having a go at Miliband for poor leadership has more than an element of pots and kettles. Thirdly, even for political journalists, the appointment and dismissal of party hacks is yawnsville.TCPoliticalBetting said:Off topic. What is surprising about the resignation from Lamont is the way that the UK media have not gone after Miliband over this. Lamont attacked the way Miliband's Leadership and team were treating SLAB. There are a number of lines of questioning about what Miliband did and did not do. Yet the media follow up has been very limp. Is this being treated as a minor matter in a far off country? Or is this the quiet before the storm? How hard will the next hack to interview Miliband dig into how he has handled relationships with SLAB? Anas Sarwar came across at the weekend as a lightweight with little grasp of the underlying problems within SLAB.
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You mean like this programme? Admittedly only £450m, but I'm assuming that someone looked at what it would cost to deliver.another_richard said:
Well there might be 'big benefits' for people in Leeds if they do a lot of rail travel to other cities in 20+ years and its paid for on an expenses account.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Yorkshire is the air this morning. HS3 being talked up.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/debate/columnists/big-benefits-for-north-in-high-speed-rail-revolution-1-6917753
But that's rather a small proportion of Yorkshire people.
This government's obsession with big cities is another example of the PPEocrachy mentality.
A few billion spent on higher speed broadband would bring a lot more benefit to a lot more people and a lot quicker.
https://www.gov.uk/broadband-delivery-uk
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Of course it will be 23 years and counting since the Tories last won an election too...TCPoliticalBetting said:
If Miliband fails then Blair will be the only Labour Leader to win a GE in a 40 year period.david_herdson said:An observation about Miliband. Assuming he keeps his office, and that the GE is in early May as scheduled, Miliband will by then by the third-longest-serving leader of the Labour Party since Wilson.
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I've stuck up £85 to back CON at 5.6 - Hopefully people will take it so I can "green up"Tissue_Price said:I see Con Majority is taking a walk on betfair, out to 5.6 (last traded). This seems to be at odds with the recent trend in polling, although of course time is running out too.
Although I'm very heavily NOM in general, this is now looking a bit too big, imo. Though if you wait until after Rochester you may get an even bigger price.
Conversely, Lab Majority at 3.4 looks an absolutely thumping lay, especially when you take into account their Scottish troubles too.
My approx position is: NOM +11, Lab Maj -11, Con Maj +1.0 -
Re football management
Anyone with a bit of the appropriate nous ought to be able to manage a team when cash is, apparently, unlimited. It’s getting good results from your team with limited cash that makes one stand out!0 -
The excellent Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics on the change in voting habits in West Virginia
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/27/capito_win_could_cap_gop_transformation_of_wva_124446.html
West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Louisiana - All won solidly by Clinton in 92/96 (except Kentucky in 96 which was pretty close). All now total lost causes for the Dems.
However they have traded Appalachia to be competitive in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina ect.
On balance I think they'd take the current scenario rather than the 92/96 electoral map.0 -
Thank you. Don't know what we'd do without you.bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
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My pleasure!!Ishmael_X said:
Thank you. Don't know what we'd do without you.bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM0 -
Race-taxi stuff: 50 Asian drivers protested, and the policy of allowing customers to pick the race of their driver has now been dropped by the firm (well, one of them, I think similar has happened with other companies both in Rochdale and Rotherham):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-29785062
Remains to be seen whether this'll affect business.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Race-taxi stuff: 50 Asian drivers protested, and the policy of allowing customers to pick the race of their driver has now been dropped by the firm (well, one of them, I think similar has happened with other companies both in Rochdale and Rotherham):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-29785062
Remains to be seen whether this'll affect business.
Given that there must be dozens of rapists driving cabs around freely, I wouldn't put my child in one of those taxis.
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Other 26?! You are joking?bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
NI 18, so GB Oth 8, being what? Something like SNP 6 (n/c) Plaid 2 (-1) Green 0 (-1) Respect 0 (-1,
, UKIP 0 (-1, . Do we really believe that?
The figures also seem to suggest that Labour will pick up seats in Scotland (17 LD must mean some Scottish losses and the SNP can't be gainers on those numbers), which strikes me as optimistic to the red cause in the extreme given current Scottish polling.
EICAHSALIFL
(Ed is crap and his supporters are living in fantasy land).0 -
AllyPally_Rob said:
The excellent Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics on the change in voting habits in West Virginia
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/27/capito_win_could_cap_gop_transformation_of_wva_124446.html
West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Louisiana - All won solidly by Clinton in 92/96 (except Kentucky in 96 which was pretty close). All now total lost causes for the Dems.
However they have traded Appalachia to be competitive in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina ect.
On balance I think they'd take the current scenario rather than the 92/96 electoral map.
Without a doubt. The Democrats basically guarantee a win now with Ohio. Thats far more favourable to them than needing to pick up a southern state.
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OTOH If Labour do drop 10% points in Scotland then they will need to gain those votes elsewhere to get the same vote share %.david_herdson said:
Other 26?! You are joking?bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
NI 18, so GB Oth 8, being what? Something like SNP 6 (n/c) Plaid 2 (-1) Green 0 (-1) Respect 0 (-1,, UKIP 0 (-1, . Do we really believe that?
The figures also seem to suggest that Labour will pick up seats in Scotland (17 LD must mean some Scottish losses and the SNP can't be gainers on those numbers), which strikes me as optimistic to the red cause in the extreme given current Scottish polling.
EICAHSALIFL
(Ed is crap and his supporters are living in fantasy land).0 -
UKIP are anti mass immigration not anti immigrants. No matter how many times you repeat this moronic claim, it won't be true.antifrank said:On topic, I'm glad I don't have a vote in this election. I don't know what I'd do. I'd find it difficult either to vote for a party of the status quo or for a party that preys on the fears of one set of the public by picking on another set of the public. I'd also find it difficult to abstain, given the obvious need for radical reform of South Yorkshire police.
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Failed politician moaning about boss is only an interesting story if:TCPoliticalBetting said:Off topic. What is surprising about the resignation from Lamont is the way that the UK media have not gone after Miliband over this. Lamont attacked the way Miliband's Leadership and team were treating SLAB. There are a number of lines of questioning about what Miliband did and did not do. Yet the media follow up has been very limp. Is this being treated as a minor matter in a far off country? Or is this the quiet before the storm? How hard will the next hack to interview Miliband dig into how he has handled relationships with SLAB? Anas Sarwar came across at the weekend as a lightweight with little grasp of the underlying problems within SLAB.
1) It could spark a leadership challenge
2) They're in a top job in government
3) They're in a very top job in opposition
4) They're very colourful and entertaining
This probably counts as (3) in Scotland, but not elsewhere.0 -
The intellectual life of the bien-pensant must be absolutely fascinating. When they read thisSocrates said:Morris_Dancer said:Race-taxi stuff: 50 Asian drivers protested, and the policy of allowing customers to pick the race of their driver has now been dropped by the firm (well, one of them, I think similar has happened with other companies both in Rochdale and Rotherham):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-29785062
Remains to be seen whether this'll affect business.
Given that there must be dozens of rapists driving cabs around freely, I wouldn't put my child in one of those taxis.
Teacher admits Syria terror offences
School teacher Jamshed Javeed, 30, from Manchester, admits two Syria-related terror offences
(bbc news) do they manage not to notice that it does not say Crofter Hamish McSporran, 30, from Sunderland, or Receptionist Jane Brown, 30, from Berkshire?
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While I agree with much of what you are saying, your comments about Scotland do not reflect the bookies' odds:david_herdson said:
Other 26?! You are joking?bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
NI 18, so GB Oth 8, being what? Something like SNP 6 (n/c) Plaid 2 (-1) Green 0 (-1) Respect 0 (-1,, UKIP 0 (-1, . Do we really believe that?
The figures also seem to suggest that Labour will pick up seats in Scotland (17 LD must mean some Scottish losses and the SNP can't be gainers on those numbers), which strikes me as optimistic to the red cause in the extreme given current Scottish polling.
EICAHSALIFL
(Ed is crap and his supporters are living in fantasy land).
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1VGVsZ3Zsa2lqck0/view
Labour are second favourites in only one seat that they currently hold (Ochil & South Perthshire) and are favourites to pick up two Lib Dem seats (Edinburgh West and East Dunbartonshire). So if the punters are right, Labour are currently expected to gain one seat in Scotland.
I has my doubts about this, I must say.0 -
I think pollsters include Scots in their overall numbers don't they. Plus Jim Murphy will be leader in Scotland which before GE2015 which is good news for Ed IMOPulpstar said:
OTOH If Labour do drop 10% points in Scotland then they will need to gain those votes elsewhere to get the same vote share %.david_herdson said:
Other 26?! You are joking?bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
NI 18, so GB Oth 8, being what? Something like SNP 6 (n/c) Plaid 2 (-1) Green 0 (-1) Respect 0 (-1,, UKIP 0 (-1, . Do we really believe that?
The figures also seem to suggest that Labour will pick up seats in Scotland (17 LD must mean some Scottish losses and the SNP can't be gainers on those numbers), which strikes me as optimistic to the red cause in the extreme given current Scottish polling.
EICAHSALIFL
(Ed is crap and his supporters are living in fantasy land).0 -
I've piled on Labour in East Dunbartonshire, do I need to reback the Lib Demsantifrank said:
While I agree with much of what you are saying, your comments about Scotland do not reflect the bookies' odds:david_herdson said:
Other 26?! You are joking?bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
NI 18, so GB Oth 8, being what? Something like SNP 6 (n/c) Plaid 2 (-1) Green 0 (-1) Respect 0 (-1,, UKIP 0 (-1, . Do we really believe that?
The figures also seem to suggest that Labour will pick up seats in Scotland (17 LD must mean some Scottish losses and the SNP can't be gainers on those numbers), which strikes me as optimistic to the red cause in the extreme given current Scottish polling.
EICAHSALIFL
(Ed is crap and his supporters are living in fantasy land).
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1VGVsZ3Zsa2lqck0/view
Labour are second favourites in only one seat that they currently hold (Ochil & South Perthshire) and are favourites to pick up two Lib Dem seats (Edinburgh West and East Dunbartonshire). So if the punters are right, Labour are currently expected to gain one seat in Scotland.
I has my doubts about this, I must say.
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Crofter Hamish McSporran from Sunderland sounds like an interesting man.Ishmael_X said:
The intellectual life of the bien-pensant must be absolutely fascinating. When they read thisSocrates said:Morris_Dancer said:Race-taxi stuff: 50 Asian drivers protested, and the policy of allowing customers to pick the race of their driver has now been dropped by the firm (well, one of them, I think similar has happened with other companies both in Rochdale and Rotherham):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-29785062
Remains to be seen whether this'll affect business.
Given that there must be dozens of rapists driving cabs around freely, I wouldn't put my child in one of those taxis.
Teacher admits Syria terror offences
School teacher Jamshed Javeed, 30, from Manchester, admits two Syria-related terror offences
(bbc news) do they manage not to notice that it does not say Crofter Hamish McSporran, 30, from Sunderland, or Receptionist Jane Brown, 30, from Berkshire?
You're not mixing him up with crofter Hamish McSporran from Sutherland are you ?
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Not me MDMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Floater, just to check before I send you a message, you're the chap who wrote AN Ever Rolling Stream? [Just finished the sample].
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No way will Murphy take the expenses pay cutbigjohnowls said:
I think pollsters include Scots in their overall numbers don't they. Plus Jim Murphy will be leader in Scotland which before GE2015 which is good news for Ed IMOPulpstar said:
OTOH If Labour do drop 10% points in Scotland then they will need to gain those votes elsewhere to get the same vote share %.david_herdson said:
Other 26?! You are joking?bigjohnowls said:Todays Populus
LAB 334 CON 273 LD 17 Other 26 EICIPM
NI 18, so GB Oth 8, being what? Something like SNP 6 (n/c) Plaid 2 (-1) Green 0 (-1) Respect 0 (-1,, UKIP 0 (-1, . Do we really believe that?
The figures also seem to suggest that Labour will pick up seats in Scotland (17 LD must mean some Scottish losses and the SNP can't be gainers on those numbers), which strikes me as optimistic to the red cause in the extreme given current Scottish polling.
EICAHSALIFL
(Ed is crap and his supporters are living in fantasy land).0
