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Starmer dwarfs Sunak on the leadership front – politicalbetting.com

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  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,445
    edited June 2023

    See also partygate. I mean how much was reaped in the fines vs how much spent investigating?
    On the other hand, if it deters politicians from ordering damaging and counter-productive future lockdowns for fear of being shown up as hypocrites, it will have been worth every penny
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,094
    Fishing said:

    On the other hand, if it deters politicians from ordering damaging and counter-productive future lockdowns for fear of being shown up as hypocrites, it will have been worth every penny
    Until we have a pandemic which needs lockdowns. And then people would be screaming about why we didn't lock down...

    (For the record, my view is that the first lockdown in March 2020 was definitely needed. The second probably was.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    edited June 2023

    Until we have a pandemic which needs lockdowns. And then people would be screaming about why we didn't lock down...

    (For the record, my view is that the first lockdown in March 2020 was definitely needed. The second probably was.)
    It (the first lockdown) was not needed but it is understandable why the government should have instigated it. The others were of course not needed either.

    Remember the poll which said (was it?) 13% of people never wanted nightclubs to reopen.

    That is what this government did to the country.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    I see the usual suspects are mithering on about Keir’s curry again.

    We need another name for them, though, instead of “PB Tories”. In most cases they profess *not* to be outright Tories, merely concerned citizens who care very deeply for some reason about the contents of Keir’s rubbish bin while ignoring the burning slag heap commonly referred to as the Conservative Party.

    Nah, he broke the rules. Of course the rules were fucking stupid but he broke them. If someone working in widgets in Slough had done the same thing and plod had noticed (of course they made it their business to notice such things during the pandemic) then they would have been done for it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,013
    Sandpit said:

    Who exactly is “We”, in that statement?

    Most of the policy suggestions appear to want to curtail emissions and economic progress, while raising energy prices, in Western nations, but simultaneously increasing reliance for energy on more polluting developing countries.
    'We' is the world in general.
    Curtailing emissions doesn't imply curtailing economic progress or raising energy prices. Nobody now should build a coal fired power station because it would cost more to run than Renewables and within a few years be a stranded asset.
    https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    TOPPING said:

    Nah, he broke the rules. Of course the rules were fucking stupid but he broke them. If someone working in widgets in Slough had done the same thing and plod had noticed (of course they made it their business to notice such things during the pandemic) then they would have been done for it.
    BuT the EmAiLs!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    Until we have a pandemic which needs lockdowns. And then people would be screaming about why we didn't lock down...

    (For the record, my view is that the first lockdown in March 2020 was definitely needed. The second probably was.)
    Did we really need a lockdown?

    I think it's obvious that we needed people to reduce social contact to prevent spread of the virus, but did that require the force of law?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    TOPPING said:

    It (the first lockdown) was not needed but it is understandable why the government should have instigated it. The others were of course not needed either.

    Remember the poll which said (was it?) 13% of people never wanted nightclubs to reopen.

    That is what this government did to the country.
    Agree entirely.
    Lamentably, however, the principal opposition called only for more lockdowns.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    BuT the EmAiLs!
    I couldn't give a fuck about the emails - not seen them. He was having a(n after work) party during lockdown when it was illegal to do so.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,094

    I see the usual suspects are mithering on about Keir’s curry again.

    We need another name for them, though, instead of “PB Tories”. In most cases they profess *not* to be outright Tories, merely concerned citizens who care very deeply for some reason about the contents of Keir’s rubbish bin while ignoring the burning slag heap commonly referred to as the Conservative Party.

    When have I ignored the "burning slag heap commonly referred to as the Conservative Party" ?

    I was criticising Johnson on here before it was popular, and giving reasons why I thought he'd be a terrible PM. I didn't say much about Truss, as I was too busy scoffing the popcorn. And I've said that the Conservative Party is tired, out of ideas, and rife with navel-gazing and infighting. I've called for an early General Election, and said I won't vote for the Conservatives. I've also said I can't see another good leader with any chance of getting the party's leadership once they're in opposition.

    But that doesn't mean I cannot criticise the Labour Party, or its leader, does it?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TOPPING said:

    It (the first lockdown) was not needed but it is understandable why the government should have instigated it. The others were of course not needed either.

    Remember the poll which said (was it?) 13% of people never wanted nightclubs to reopen.

    That is what this government did to the country.
    My memory of that poll was that the anti clubbers were a larger group (20+%?). Plenty with that vibe right here on PB too…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    'We' is the world in general.
    Curtailing emissions doesn't imply curtailing economic progress or raising energy prices. Nobody now should build a coal fired power station because it would cost more to run than Renewables and within a few years be a stranded asset.
    https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
    So long as the “We” continues to be the whole world, and that policy suggestions reduce the CO2 emissions from the whole world, then great.

    But that’s not what’s currently seen in practice.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,070

    See also partygate. I mean how much was reaped in the fines vs how much spent investigating?
    The amounts directly recovered from crimes in the form of fines is always dwarfed by the policing and legal costs.

    But imagine it the other way round, living in a country with no police and no legal system...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    .

    Did we really need a lockdown?

    I think it's obvious that we needed people to reduce social contact to prevent spread of the virus, but did that require the force of law?
    Good pandemic response should avoid any need for lockdowns. Lockdowns are last resorts. So, one can imagine a counter-factual where we didn’t need a lockdown. But that would have required a much better response in Jan-Mar, better test & trace measures, etc. If you don’t want lockdowns, you invest in public health.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    My memory of that poll was that the anti clubbers were a larger group (20+%?). Plenty with that vibe right here on PB too…
    Google says 26%.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,666
    Scottish by-election is on:

    MPs vote to ban Margaret Ferrier from Commons for 30 days
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

    Also makes it more likely that a critical report on Boris may lead to a similar suspension.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I’m pleased to have you on side with this one Selebian, this isn’t going away for Starmer is it? Nailing Starmer’s Beergate dishonesty, as proved by the WhatsApp message being covered up and withheld from the public, will likely dominate next general election campaign for the Daily Mail and CCHQ.
    LOL
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686

    My memory of that poll was that the anti clubbers were a larger group (20+%?). Plenty with that vibe right here on PB too…
    Yes, I think it was 20% never wanted night clubs to reopen. Though I don't think there were many on pb going quite that far!
    I think if that poll showed anything, it was the weakness of polling on hypothetical questions. I mean, I'm sure there was at least 20% of people who wouldn't care if nightclubs reopened - but I suspect the position that they should never be allowed to be reopen was possibly sincere but very weakly held.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I only ever read or hear about Currygate on PB. It is not something ever encounter in real life.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    TOPPING said:

    I couldn't give a fuck about the emails - not seen them. He was having a(n after work) party during lockdown when it was illegal to do so.
    Sadly for you, Durham Constabulary investigated and found there was no case, except for one cooked up by Dan Hodges, James Delingpole’s son, and Big G.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    Exciting as dams and Sir Keir's regurgitated curry are, other news.



    I'd hazard a guess that winning by only 7pts would be disappointing for the prospects of 'We need change from the pro Brexit, anti immigration, pro NHS privatisation Tories' Labour.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    .

    Good pandemic response should avoid any need for lockdowns. Lockdowns are last resorts. So, one can imagine a counter-factual where we didn’t need a lockdown. But that would have required a much better response in Jan-Mar, better test & trace measures, etc. If you don’t want lockdowns, you invest in public health.
    I have a strong suspicion that the state of health required so that some people think lockdowns are unnecessary would always be just around the corner. Everyone has an agenda.

    Look at the fuss and bother over disposable vapes. They interviewed someone on R4 from the BMA or somesuch who wanted them banned primarily because of their environmental impact. Oh yes and the health implications are as yet unproven but the environmental impact was very bad indeed.

    Everyone has an agenda.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Scottish by-election is on:

    MPs vote to ban Margaret Ferrier from Commons for 30 days
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

    Also makes it more likely that a critical report on Boris may lead to a similar suspension.

    I have family in Rutherglen. Will be making sure they all vote to recall their MP.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Google says 26%.
    Yup. Absolutely shocking, although my feeling at the time was that very many PBers would have been with thar 26%. What an illiberal, authoritarian, terrifyingly judgemental population we became during that horrible time.

    Makes me shudder just thinking about it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited June 2023

    Good pandemic response should avoid any need for lockdowns. Lockdowns are last resorts. So, one can imagine a counter-factual where we didn’t need a lockdown. But that would have required a much better response in Jan-Mar, better test & trace measures, etc. If you don’t want lockdowns, you invest in public health.
    Completely agree that, ideally, public health fundamentals like test, trace and isolate should prevent the need for blanket reductions in social contact, but even when that approach fails, is a lockdown necessary?

    We are a democracy. If the Prime Minister tells the nation that reducing social contact to a bare minimum is required to avoid a pandemic disaster, then surely we'd expect most citizens to voluntarily abide by such public health advice. We're not China. We don't need to pass laws on who can or cannot enter a private home.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eristdoof said:

    The amounts directly recovered from crimes in the form of fines is always dwarfed by the policing and legal costs.

    But imagine it the other way round, living in a country with no police and no legal system...
    The problem comes when political point-scoring overwhelmes the police budget to go after more serious crimes.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    I only ever read or hear about Currygate on PB. It is not something ever encounter in real life.

    Unlike Boris and his parties which (in my experience if his name is mentioned) is still brought up by a lot of people who formerly voted for him and feel betrayed.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    TOPPING said:

    I couldn't give a fuck about the emails - not seen them. He was having a(n after work) party during lockdown when it was illegal to do so.
    The police, who are empowered to decide and saw the evidence, decided otherwise. You, a random partisan online commenter, think otherwise. However can we choose between these two opinions?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    Sandpit said:

    I have family in Rutherglen. Will be making sure they all vote to recall their MP.
    All family dynamics are different, but if some distant or even close relly started telling me how to vote, they'd get told to ram it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    Exciting as dams and Sir Keir's regurgitated curry are, other news.



    I'd hazard a guess that winning by only 7pts would be disappointing for the prospects of 'We need change from the pro Brexit, anti immigration, pro NHS privatisation Tories' Labour.

    “Only” 7pts???
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    .

    Scottish by-election is on:

    MPs vote to ban Margaret Ferrier from Commons for 30 days
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

    Also makes it more likely that a critical report on Boris may lead to a similar suspension.

    Scottish by-election is very probable, but you have to pass the recall petition requirements first.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    The police, who are empowered to decide and saw the evidence, decided otherwise. You, a random partisan online commenter, think otherwise. However can we choose between these two opinions?
    Yes because the police have proven beyond any reasonable doubt what pillars of probity and independent free thinking they are.

    How to choose between someone who exercises sound judgement and someone who believes anything the police tell them. How indeed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    All family dynamics are different, but if some distant or even close relly started telling me how to vote, they'd get told to ram it.
    Perhaps a letter writing campaign to advise people on the matter might swing it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    Exciting as dams and Sir Keir's regurgitated curry are, other news.



    I'd hazard a guess that winning by only 7pts would be disappointing for the prospects of 'We need change from the pro Brexit, anti immigration, pro NHS privatisation Tories' Labour.

    What is the Union Divvie bar for a successful Labour by-election?

    A cynic might suggest it would be five points better than the result...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    TOPPING said:

    I have a strong suspicion that the state of health required so that some people think lockdowns are unnecessary would always be just around the corner. Everyone has an agenda.

    Look at the fuss and bother over disposable vapes. They interviewed someone on R4 from the BMA or somesuch who wanted them banned primarily because of their environmental impact. Oh yes and the health implications are as yet unproven but the environmental impact was very bad indeed.

    Everyone has an agenda.
    Yes, people who work on pandemic preparedness have an agenda. That agenda is stopping pandemics! (Preceded by apologies and followed by any other business, and date of next meeting.)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,165

    Scottish by-election is on:

    MPs vote to ban Margaret Ferrier from Commons for 30 days
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

    Also makes it more likely that a critical report on Boris may lead to a similar suspension.

    "Of the 40 MPs who voted against the motion and opposed Margaret Ferrier's suspension, 32 were Conservatives, two were DUP, two were Alba - Neale Hanvey and Kenny MacAskill - and one was Reclaim.

    The Conservatives who backed her included former ministers David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg, and party grandees Sir Bill Cash and Sir Edward Leigh.
    "

    Lol
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    Talking about Desert Storm, the Americans thought about blowing up the dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers if the Iraqis used WMD in Desert Storm.

    Colin Powell said they stopped when they realised it would cause more damage than nuking Baghdad and realised they would likely face war crimes charges.
    It is interesting that an event we celebrate in film and memorial and which just had its 80th anniversary marked by a flypast of all the WW2 airfields in Lincolnshire would now be considered a war crime.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,666
    Also, an interesting story (mostly by two people who I know personally, Mike Trace and Rachel Wright) on the remarkable Taliban success in ending poppy production in the main province that grew it - impressive in its way (we never got remotely near achieving that level of reduction), though with likely mixed effects as described:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-65787391
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    All family dynamics are different, but if some distant or even close relly started telling me how to vote, they'd get told to ram it.
    They can vote for whoever they want to.

    But I’ll be letting them know that there’s a recall petition active against the incumbent, for the reason that she had a positive covid test in London, and then spent five hours on the train bringing it back to Glasgow.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    I only ever read or hear about Currygate on PB. It is not something ever encounter in real life.

    And Dan Hodges who, last I looked, has had the same post pinned about it since Johnson was PM and Elizabeth II was monarch.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    Well perhaps the best option would be to stop burning the stuff and instead use it only for essential purposes. Then we wouldn't need so much of it.
    This is something that many of us have been saying since long before climate change became a political issue. Hydrocarbons are just too valuable and useful to burn whien we have viable alternatives.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    Sandpit said:

    They can vote for whoever they want to.

    But I’ll be letting them know that there’s a recall petition active against the incumbent, for the reason that she had a positive covid test in London, and then spent five hours on the train bringing it back to Glasgow.
    Ah, so we've moved on from 'Will be making sure they all vote to recall their MP'.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328

    Yup. Absolutely shocking, although my feeling at the time was that very many PBers would have been with thar 26%. What an illiberal, authoritarian, terrifyingly judgemental population we became during that horrible time.

    Makes me shudder just thinking about it.
    I concur we had an illiberal and authoritarian *government* that emphasised tough policing of COVID restrictions (contrary to SAGE advice). We needed a more liberal and social democratic government that would have provided better support for those self-isolating (recommended by SAGE) and more investment in infrastructure like air filters, practical measures that reduce the need for community-wide restrictions. More carrot, less stick.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    TOPPING said:

    I have a strong suspicion that the state of health required so that some people think lockdowns are unnecessary would always be just around the corner. Everyone has an agenda.

    Look at the fuss and bother over disposable vapes. They interviewed someone on R4 from the BMA or somesuch who wanted them banned primarily because of their environmental impact. Oh yes and the health implications are as yet unproven but the environmental impact was very bad indeed.

    Everyone has an agenda.
    Yes, exactly. Many people see no issue at all in extrapolating from 'I don't like activity X' to 'Activity X should be banned'.

    Personally, I dislike vaping largely because vape shops are ugly. But I wouldn't ban vaping for this. (Though I'd be in favour of some sort of public intervention to make our high streets more attractive.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110

    What is the Union Divvie bar for a successful Labour by-election?

    A cynic might suggest it would be five points better than the result...
    I yield to your expertise in this area, so feel free to posit a stellar/good/mediocre/shite result for Labour in the context of an oncoming GE. I think 7pts ahead of the SNP would be mediocre.
  • TOPPING said:

    It (the first lockdown) was not needed but it is understandable why the government should have instigated it. The others were of course not needed either.

    Remember the poll which said (was it?) 13% of people never wanted nightclubs to reopen.

    That is what this government did to the country.
    While I agree lockdowns were a mistake, I wouldn't use that poll as evidence as to why.

    If you'd taken a poll in 2019, before we ever heard of Covid, as to whether nightclubs should be open, it wouldn't surprise me if there was a significant element who would have said closed even then.

    Regrettably for an otherwise liberal nation there is a large element of curtain twitchers and busy bodies who want to stick themselves into other people's lives as a matter of course. Covid just gave them free reign and right to come out from behind the curtains.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    Exciting as dams and Sir Keir's regurgitated curry are, other news.



    I'd hazard a guess that winning by only 7pts would be disappointing for the prospects of 'We need change from the pro Brexit, anti immigration, pro NHS privatisation Tories' Labour.

    Nonetheless pretty awful result for Yousaf to lose his first electoral test as SNP leader to Labour
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328

    Completely agree that, ideally, public health fundamentals like test, trace and isolate should prevent the need for blanket reductions in social contact, but even when that approach fails, is a lockdown necessary?

    We are a democracy. If the Prime Minister tells the nation that reducing social contact to a bare minimum is required to avoid a pandemic disaster, then surely we'd expect most citizens to voluntarily abide by such public health advice. We're not China. We don't need to pass laws on who can or cannot enter a private home.
    Japan kept levels much lower throughout, but then took this route with voluntary advice rather than legal lockdowns. Some have suggested that the Japanese population is more compliant, while the UK population is full of people who would have gone around saying, “I don’t have to follow any of this! Huff!” However, I’m sure we don’t know any people like that, say on PB.com.
  • Exciting as dams and Sir Keir's regurgitated curry are, other news.



    I'd hazard a guess that winning by only 7pts would be disappointing for the prospects of 'We need change from the pro Brexit, anti immigration, pro NHS privatisation Tories' Labour.

    I'd hazard a guess that Labour winning by one vote would be a disappointment for the SNP, and the SNP winning by 1 vote would be a disappointment for Labour.

    Such is the nature of elections.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    TOPPING said:

    Yes because the police have proven beyond any reasonable doubt what pillars of probity and independent free thinking they are.

    How to choose between someone who exercises sound judgement and someone who believes anything the police tell them. How indeed.
    If you meet this person who exercises sound judgement and is a model of independent free thinking, could you ask them to post to PB.com?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    I'm not sure which zealots you mean, but I'm all in favour of heavily taxing all imports of fossil fuels as well as reducing our own production. It's not a case of either/or; we have to reduce both our production and importation of fossil fuels.
    Why not deal with demand and let production deal with itself. That way your hydrocarbon needs are met through local production which is the most environmentally friendly way of doing it, you maintain energy security and you don't impact your balance of payments.

    There are literally no sane reasons for reducing local production except in response to reductions in consumption. Anything else just causes more of the very thing you are trying to reduce.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited June 2023

    It is interesting that an event we celebrate in film and memorial and which just had its 80th anniversary marked by a flypast of all the WW2 airfields in Lincolnshire would now be considered a war crime.
    The problem with war crimes is they are only work if those who committed them are defeated and can be put on trial, as with the Nazis in WW2 or Serbs in Bosnia or ousted tyrants in Africa or the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

    It doesn't matter how many war crimes Putin or indeed the US are alleged to have committed, they are not going to voluntarily hand themselves over to war crimes tribunals and nor are security forces going to be able to arrest them in Moscow or DC
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2023

    Ah, so we've moved on from 'Will be making sure they all vote to recall their MP'.
    They can vote for who ever they want in the by-election.

    A recall petition requires everyone to know it’s happening, and if I can tell them from 3,500 miles away that it’s happening…

    Surely the SNP are in favour of, and will be campaigning for, the recall of their former MP?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,013
    Sandpit said:

    So long as the “We” continues to be the whole world, and that policy suggestions reduce the CO2 emissions from the whole world, then great.

    But that’s not what’s currently seen in practice.
    OK Sandpit, explain what you mean.
    Is this a criticism of any particular country?
    "China is the world's leader in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.
    China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China

    The UK is doing ok, 7th in the WEF ETI list, but 'we' (the whole world) need to increase the rate at which we move to renewables to hit net zero by 2030 - have a look at the graph here https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/doubling-renewable-energy-net-zero-emissions/
    So, how does it make any sense, environmental or economic to spend time and money looking for new fossil fuels now?

  • Japan kept levels much lower throughout, but then took this route with voluntary advice rather than legal lockdowns. Some have suggested that the Japanese population is more compliant, while the UK population is full of people who would have gone around saying, “I don’t have to follow any of this! Huff!” However, I’m sure we don’t know any people like that, say on PB.com.
    Japan also is not in Europe where the virus became much more endemic throughout the continent, for which we have many people coming and going on a daily basis for food etc

    We should have stuck with voluntary advice, even if people decide they don't want to follow it. Never again should we take away people's liberties, if you can't convince them to follow the guidance, then you don't convince them, let people who want to hide away do so.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    OK Sandpit, explain what you mean.
    Is this a criticism of any particular country?
    "China is the world's leader in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.
    China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China

    The UK is doing ok, 7th in the WEF ETI list, but 'we' (the whole world) need to increase the rate at which we move to renewables to hit net zero by 2030 - have a look at the graph here https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/doubling-renewable-energy-net-zero-emissions/
    So, how does it make any sense, environmental or economic to spend time and money looking for new fossil fuels now?

    Becuase most of the policy suggestions, are that the UK should abandon FF extraction, in favour of importing it - at a higher global CO2 impact - from other countries.

    China is still building coal power plants.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    Just discovered I have a Chat GPT account. Not passing the Turing test yet:

    Cookie: Where do you weigh a whale?

    Chat GPT: You weigh a whale at a specialized facility or location equipped to handle the immense size and weight of these marine mammals. These facilities are typically marine research centers, aquariums, or other institutions that work with whales and have the necessary infrastructure and equipment.

    To weigh a whale, the most common method is to use a large-scale or platform scale. The scale is typically placed on a solid foundation, such as a reinforced floor, capable of supporting the weight of the whale. The whale is carefully guided onto the scale, either by using a specialized lift or by coaxing it onto the weighing platform through training techniques.

    It's important to note that weighing a whale is a complex and challenging task due to their size, weight, and the need to ensure the safety and well-being of the animal throughout the process. Therefore, it is typically carried out by experienced professionals who follow strict protocols to minimize stress and potential harm to the whale.
  • Why not deal with demand and let production deal with itself. That way your hydrocarbon needs are met through local production which is the most environmentally friendly way of doing it, you maintain energy security and you don't impact your balance of payments.

    There are literally no sane reasons for reducing local production except in response to reductions in consumption. Anything else just causes more of the very thing you are trying to reduce.
    Precisely. This is a demand-based problem that needs demand-based solutions.

    Getting people to switch from petrol/diesel vehicles to electric ones will significantly reduce the amount of fossil fuels burnt in this country. Switching our petrol/diesel from North Sea to Middle Eastern, or vice-versa, does not change the amount burnt whatsoever.

    If you want to be serious about the problem, you need serious solutions. Like how do we electrify heating/transportation etc and make it work with clean electricity. What you don't need is clowns blocking domestic extraction of the fuel we rely upon to live our lives in the interim so that we import from shady characters from shady parts of the world instead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    I yield to your expertise in this area, so feel free to posit a stellar/good/mediocre/shite result for Labour in the context of an oncoming GE. I think 7pts ahead of the SNP would be mediocre.
    If that's your honest take, it suggests that Scottish voters are as tired of the SNP as the UK as a whole is of the Tories.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    Yes, people who work on pandemic preparedness have an agenda. That agenda is stopping pandemics! (Preceded by apologies and followed by any other business, and date of next meeting.)
    Of course - gawd bless them (and you, I believe?).

    However, it ain't so simple as saying "Me guv? I just want to stop the next pandemic." We have finite resources and a sliding scale of cost/benefit. I could stop every single death or injury from road traffic accidents tomorrow. If I was allowed to ban people driving.

    If I was a health professional I would want a health service that was able to cope, effortlessly, with any and every possibility. All tail events (and the pandemic was one such) included.

    That would require a ridiculous and unrealistic level of spending.

    So given that this is not going to happen compromises must be made and in this instance, one compromise was to allow "normal" (although of course far from normal) life to go on, or at least allow life to go on with no laws to regulate who you could invite to dinner (or have a curry with) and accept the increase in deaths that might have occurred as a result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060
    Cookie said:

    Just discovered I have a Chat GPT account. Not passing the Turing test yet:

    Cookie: Where do you weigh a whale?

    Chat GPT: You weigh a whale at a specialized facility or location equipped to handle the immense size and weight of these marine mammals. These facilities are typically marine research centers, aquariums, or other institutions that work with whales and have the necessary infrastructure and equipment.

    To weigh a whale, the most common method is to use a large-scale or platform scale. The scale is typically placed on a solid foundation, such as a reinforced floor, capable of supporting the weight of the whale. The whale is carefully guided onto the scale, either by using a specialized lift or by coaxing it onto the weighing platform through training techniques.

    It's important to note that weighing a whale is a complex and challenging task due to their size, weight, and the need to ensure the safety and well-being of the animal throughout the process. Therefore, it is typically carried out by experienced professionals who follow strict protocols to minimize stress and potential harm to the whale.

    What's wrong with that answer ?

    I think it's the one most of the world would give (If they had the knowledge). Is there a parochial joke you're making chatgpt is missing ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328

    Japan also is not in Europe where the virus became much more endemic throughout the continent, for which we have many people coming and going on a daily basis for food etc

    We should have stuck with voluntary advice, even if people decide they don't want to follow it. Never again should we take away people's liberties, if you can't convince them to follow the guidance, then you don't convince them, let people who want to hide away do so.
    Bart, you’re better than this absolutist libertarian garbage. Society involves balances and we give up our liberties for benefits all the time. You have to pay tax, you can’t drive without a license, you can’t walk down Downing Street any more unless invited, you can’t make your own MDMA, you can’t keep a notifiable disease secret, you can’t sell fags to kids, you can’t smoke in so many places, you can’t open carry a gun that you just bought from a supermarket, you can’t walk the streets naked. Sure, we should be very cautious about taking away liberties and weigh up the pros and cons, but you just look like one of those Sovereign Citizen nutters if you proclaim absolutes.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    OK Sandpit, explain what you mean.
    Is this a criticism of any particular country?
    "China is the world's leader in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States.
    China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China

    The UK is doing ok, 7th in the WEF ETI list, but 'we' (the whole world) need to increase the rate at which we move to renewables to hit net zero by 2030 - have a look at the graph here https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/12/doubling-renewable-energy-net-zero-emissions/
    So, how does it make any sense, environmental or economic to spend time and money looking for new fossil fuels now?

    Because

    1. Looking for new fossil fuels in no way prevents us from also doing far more investment in renewables, it is not an either or and the monies raised by taxes on fossil fuels helps pay for more renewables
    2, Hydrocarbon sources are not just about fossil fuels. Your electric cars won't get very far without those lubricants and coolants you need to make them run and of course you won't even have the electric cars without hydrocarbon based plastics. Nor a whole host of other things. And when that gives you a headacheyou won't have asprin either.

    And meanwhile all you are going to be doing is importing those fossil fuels from other parts of the world with far poorer environmental controls and using far more energy to get them here.

    Deal with demand and leave supply alone to deal with its own issues.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    While I agree lockdowns were a mistake, I wouldn't use that poll as evidence as to why.

    If you'd taken a poll in 2019, before we ever heard of Covid, as to whether nightclubs should be open, it wouldn't surprise me if there was a significant element who would have said closed even then.

    Regrettably for an otherwise liberal nation there is a large element of curtain twitchers and busy bodies who want to stick themselves into other people's lives as a matter of course. Covid just gave them free reign and right to come out from behind the curtains.
    Oh I agree and (if you will forgive the godwin) it is analagous to Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. Whether he was personally an anti-semite or not he nevertheless emboldened those in the Labour Party who unambiguously were anti-semites.

    If you go around putting into the public domain that you can stop nightclubs from opening by closing them then you embolden those who want them closed permanently.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,070
    Sandpit said:

    The problem comes when political point-scoring overwhelmes the police budget to go after more serious crimes.
    I agree completerly, but that is still not a question of how much the investigation cost, but rather should the investigation taken place or perhaps when it should have been called off.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    TOPPING said:

    Of course - gawd bless them (and you, I believe?).

    However, it ain't so simple as saying "Me guv? I just want to stop the next pandemic." We have finite resources and a sliding scale of cost/benefit. I could stop every single death or injury from road traffic accidents tomorrow. If I was allowed to ban people driving.

    If I was a health professional I would want a health service that was able to cope, effortlessly, with any and every possibility. All tail events (and the pandemic was one such) included.

    That would require a ridiculous and unrealistic level of spending.

    So given that this is not going to happen compromises must be made and in this instance, one compromise was to allow "normal" (although of course far from normal) life to go on, or at least allow life to go on with no laws to regulate who you could invite to dinner (or have a curry with) and accept the increase in deaths that might have occurred as a result.
    Of course we need to have a system — like a democratically elected government — to decide how to raise and apportion public funds. Like, duh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    Badenoch defends her decision to change the Retained EU Law Bill in the face of Qs from big Brexiteer David Jones

    “I'm not an arsonist, I'm a Conservative. I don’t think a bonfire of regulations is what we wanted. What we wanted was reform & removal of the things we didn't need"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1666031189050769414
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,472
    HYUFD said:

    Nonetheless pretty awful result for Yousaf to lose his first electoral test as SNP leader to Labour
    Something he will need to get used to. I suspect Labour will win by 15 -20%.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    HYUFD said:

    The problem with war crimes is they are only work if those who committed them are defeated and can be put on trial, as with the Nazis in WW2 or Serbs in Bosnia or ousted tyrants in Africa or the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.

    It doesn't matter how many war crimes Putin or indeed the US are alleged to have committed, they are not going to voluntarily hand themselves over to war crimes tribunals and nor are security forces going to be able to arrest them in Moscow or DC
    But that should not impact whether or not things are considered a war crime. We all know that sometime speople get away with doing terrible things. That doesn't mean we should not still insist that these things ARE terrible and that we will hold people to account where we get the opportunity.

    My original comment was just an observation on how the world has changed but we still perceive some things as being acceptable long after they are now considered criminal.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,847

    Scottish by-election is on:

    MPs vote to ban Margaret Ferrier from Commons for 30 days
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

    Also makes it more likely that a critical report on Boris may lead to a similar suspension.

    30 days for Ferrier looks like setting the precedent for err, 9 days for Johnson.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    edited June 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    If that's your honest take, it suggests that Scottish voters are as tired of the SNP as the UK as a whole is of the Tories.
    That last 3 UK by elections (where the Tories lost to the LDs) had swings of between 25-34, so 'as tired' is doing a fair bit of work there.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616
    edited June 2023

    Of course we need to have a system — like a democratically elected government — to decide how to raise and apportion public funds. Like, duh.
    Yep absolutely. I disagreed with their policy, just like I disagree with the Labour Party policy to nationalise Tescos (I think that's what they want to do).

    The difference is that we are talking about considerable restrictions of liberties and, IIRC, a cancelled election, wasn't there? This takes the danger of such policies into a different domain and beyond just "oh it's democratic decision made by a democratically-elected government".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects

    25m
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (-4)
    CON: 29% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (+4)

    via @DeltapollUK 02 - 05 Jun"
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,013
    Sandpit said:

    Becuase most of the policy suggestions, are that the UK should abandon FF extraction, in favour of importing it - at a higher global CO2 impact - from other countries.

    China is still building coal power plants.
    Who is suggesting that "UK should abandon FF extraction, in favour of importing it" ? They would obviously be a complete idiot.
    Or is it that somebody else is accusing someone of doing so?
    China should stop building coal power plants, obviously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    But that should not impact whether or not things are considered a war crime. We all know that sometime speople get away with doing terrible things. That doesn't mean we should not still insist that these things ARE terrible and that we will hold people to account where we get the opportunity.

    My original comment was just an observation on how the world has changed but we still perceive some things as being acceptable long after they are now considered criminal.
    Maybe but unless laws can be enforced by law enforcement and the courts they in practical terms irrelevant
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,094

    But that should not impact whether or not things are considered a war crime. We all know that sometime speople get away with doing terrible things. That doesn't mean we should not still insist that these things ARE terrible and that we will hold people to account where we get the opportunity.

    My original comment was just an observation on how the world has changed but we still perceive some things as being acceptable long after they are now considered criminal.
    It's an interesting one.

    Perhaps it's because there's thankfully been progress, but most people can see it in the context of the times? It was, for the time, total war, but there were standards. Even then, Britain, the US and Germany held back from using chemical weapons (not the Japanese, though...). The Red Cross was generally respected.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,270

    Badenoch defends her decision to change the Retained EU Law Bill in the face of Qs from big Brexiteer David Jones

    “I'm not an arsonist, I'm a Conservative. I don’t think a bonfire of regulations is what we wanted. What we wanted was reform & removal of the things we didn't need"


    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1666031189050769414

    What a great response.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    Who is suggesting that "UK should abandon FF extraction, in favour of importing it" ? They would obviously be a complete idiot.
    Or is it that somebody else is accusing someone of doing so?
    China should stop building coal power plants, obviously.
    That is exacty what Starmer is suggesting. That is the whole point of this discussion.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686

    A whale-weigh station!
    Yes, exactly!
    Though on reflection, I think ChatGPT's answer is funnier. I particularly enjoy 'coaxing it onto the weighing platform through training techniques'.

    On further reflection, I can already think of a better 'straight' answer, which is that you weigh you whale AND the water it is in in the tank, then weigh just the tank and the water, and work out the difference. There is some complexity about how you make sure you know how much water there was in the tank, but this should be doable in a closed system.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,328
    TOPPING said:

    Yep absolutely. I disagreed with their policy, just like I disagree with the Labour Party policy to nationalise Tescos (I think that's what they want to do).

    The difference is that we are talking about considerable restrictions of liberties and, IIRC, a cancelled election, wasn't there? This takes the danger of such policies into a different domain and beyond just "oh it's democratic decision made by a democratically-elected government".
    Some local elections were postponed. The Government didn’t cancel any elections affecting itself.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    I only ever read or hear about Currygate on PB. It is not something ever encounter in real life.

    You mean in your ,'real life' where no-one uses cash...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    It's an interesting one.

    Perhaps it's because there's thankfully been progress, but most people can see it in the context of the times? It was, for the time, total war, but there were standards. Even then, Britain, the US and Germany held back from using chemical weapons (not the Japanese, though...). The Red Cross was generally respected.
    As I remember the RAF Chaplain at the time of Dresden used an argument that given that war is a complete negation of civilised behaviour, the only reasonable response from civilised people was to use all means at their disposal to bring it to an end as quickly as possible.

    I have to say I don't necessarily hold with that view and think it can and is used to condone things which are completely beyond the pale. I only mention it as it seemed apposite to your comment.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited June 2023

    I yield to your expertise in this area, so feel free to posit a stellar/good/mediocre/shite result for Labour in the context of an oncoming GE. I think 7pts ahead of the SNP would be mediocre.
    It's been more than six months since I left Scotland. I feel my expertise fading. I'd be interested in your thoughts (and the reasoning behind them).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,094
    Pulpstar said:

    What's wrong with that answer ?

    I think it's the one most of the world would give (If they had the knowledge). Is there a parochial joke you're making chatgpt is missing ?
    It isn't right though AIUI. You *might* be able to do that for a small whale; for large whales, or whales not in captivity, it's a no-hoper. I bet the process would also kill large whales.

    "or by coaxing it onto the weighing platform through training techniques." seems particularly odd. They've taken something for another animal and altered it.

    Here's a way it can be done.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49893849

    Or my proposal: put a load of explosives in it, then see the damage done to nearby cars...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6CLumsir34
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    HYUFD said:

    Maybe but unless laws can be enforced by law enforcement and the courts they in practical terms irrelevant
    Not at all. Just because some people get away with it doesn't mean that everyone should be allowed to. Lots of people get way with fraud sadly. That doesn't mean we should not have laws against it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,686
    Cookie (still enjoying himself): How can you tell there is an elephant in bed with you?

    ChatGPT: If you were to wake up and suspect that there is an elephant in bed with you, you would likely notice several unmistakable signs:

    Size and Space: You would likely feel an extreme lack of space in the bed, as an elephant would take up a significant portion of it. The bed would feel crowded and cramped.

    Weight and Pressure: The immense weight of an elephant would cause the mattress to sink or compress significantly, leading to an unusual sensation of pressure and possibly discomfort.

    Movement and Vibrations: An elephant's size and weight would likely result in noticeable movements and vibrations. You might feel the bed shaking or shifting as the elephant adjusts its position.

    Sounds and Noises: Elephants are large animals, and their presence in a bed would likely produce audible sounds. You might hear heavy breathing, rustling, or even low rumbling sounds coming from the elephant.

    Visual Confirmation: If you manage to look or glance in the direction of the supposed elephant, you would likely see the unmistakable sight of a massive creature beside or partially on the bed.

    However, it's important to note that an elephant in bed with you is an unlikely scenario in reality, and it's more likely to be a humorous or imaginative concept.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eristdoof said:

    I agree completerly, but that is still not a question of how much the investigation cost, but rather should the investigation taken place or perhaps when it should have been called off.
    If the question is, should the police in London and Durham spent millions of pounds investigating offences, for which the penalty was an £80 ticket - then of course the answer should have been no.

    Especially given the context of car thefts and house burglaries getting no followup at all, bar a crime number for those with insurance.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2023

    Who is suggesting that "UK should abandon FF extraction, in favour of importing it" ? They would obviously be a complete idiot.
    Or is it that somebody else is accusing someone of doing so?
    China should stop building coal power plants, obviously.
    Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer, QC, MP.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,013

    Because

    1. Looking for new fossil fuels in no way prevents us from also doing far more investment in renewables, it is not an either or and the monies raised by taxes on fossil fuels helps pay for more renewables
    2, Hydrocarbon sources are not just about fossil fuels. Your electric cars won't get very far without those lubricants and coolants you need to make them run and of course you won't even have the electric cars without hydrocarbon based plastics. Nor a whole host of other things. And when that gives you a headacheyou won't have asprin either.

    And meanwhile all you are going to be doing is importing those fossil fuels from other parts of the world with far poorer environmental controls and using far more energy to get them here.

    Deal with demand and leave supply alone to deal with its own issues.
    The public demand heating and transport, we don't demand that gas, coal or oil to be used to provide that.
    We will need vastly less fossil fuels to produce aspirin, plastic and lubricants than for petrol, diesel to use in transport and for power stations. Very few people are suggesting closing down existing sources of fossil fuels in this country before they become economically irrelevant, but spending time and money searching for and developing new coal mines and oil wells rather than building more renewables is a bad idea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,094

    As I remember the RAF Chaplain at the time of Dresden used an argument that given that war is a complete negation of civilised behaviour, the only reasonable response from civilised people was to use all means at their disposal to bring it to an end as quickly as possible.

    I have to say I don't necessarily hold with that view and think it can and is used to condone things which are completely beyond the pale. I only mention it as it seemed apposite to your comment.
    If you're in a war of survival, you also don't aim to do the absolute minimum possible. You do the maximum you can do within the restrictions of resources, politics, morality and the law.

    Something that has bearing on Ukraine currently. (Russia thinks it does, but if Russia withdrew from Ukraine tomorrow (i.e. totally lost), Russia would survive.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,013
    Sandpit said:

    Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer, QC, MP.
    Please provide a reference where he says that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,394
    Security experts are to turn on an old phone belonging to Boris Johnson to try to extract WhatsApp messages revealing discussions with government figures at the start of the pandemic.

    The phone was switched off in 2021 because of fears that it had been hacked with Israeli spy software. The advice was that it should never be turned back on.

    But the Covid inquiry revealed today that it had reached a deal with the Cabinet Office to hand the phone to the “appropriate personnel in government for its contents to be downloaded”.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-inquiry-baroness-hallett-boris-johnson-whatsapp-messages-tbncbgq5g
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    Pulpstar said:

    What's wrong with that answer ?

    I think it's the one most of the world would give (If they had the knowledge). Is there a parochial joke you're making chatgpt is missing ?
    You can tell it's an answer generated by a computer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,616

    Some local elections were postponed. The Government didn’t cancel any elections affecting itself.
    Oh that's ok, then. Just some local elections.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,013

    That is exacty what Starmer is suggesting. That is the whole point of this discussion.
    Please provide reference where he says that UK should abandon FF extraction, in favour of importing it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,109
    IanB2 said:

    For lower taxes it seems that many Americans are willing to live in the most dreadful places
    The cities of Florida and Texas aren't that bad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Please provide a reference where he says that.
    I’ll go with the Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/04/starmer-labour-new-north-sea-oil-gas-ban
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited June 2023

    If you're in a war of survival, you also don't aim to do the absolute minimum possible. You do the maximum you can do within the restrictions of resources, politics, morality and the law.

    Something that has bearing on Ukraine currently. (Russia thinks it does, but if Russia withdrew from Ukraine tomorrow (i.e. totally lost), Russia would survive.
    Although Ukraine has generally made quite an effort to avoid incidental damage, understandably since their country is the battlefield.
This discussion has been closed.