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How long before the LAB lead is reduced to single digits? – politicalbetting.com
How long before the LAB lead is reduced to single digits? – politicalbetting.com
March has seen a better set of General Election polling numbers for the Tories then they’ve had in months. The latest from Deltapoll has it down to just 10%
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It wasn't that many months ago headers were asking whether to bet on an actual Tory poll lead.
It's a different question.
Your regular reminder that EdM's largest ever poll lead was 16%.
We've had a damn sight larger lead just today.
But what they have thrown at winning voters in last few months is clearly based on promise not actual delivery. If fact they have certainly over promised, with a reckoning for that further down the line in the next year or so.
Stop the boats policy for example, won’t stop the boats, so will look like a failed policy with processing still slow and number of unprocessed piling up in hotels, and the Rwanda end very expensive use of taxpayers money.
the WF too and the politics going on here, the way WF plays out overtime, this very favourable to the EU deal will create a lot of anger and rancour in UK Conservative politics, I haven’t a shadow of doubt of this, for two facts are clearly on my side, firstly Sunak is speaking beyond the DUP, he has given up carrying them along on this deal and getting Stormont open, ignoring them, that’s not clever, not least because it plays into SF hands. And, as the WF allows EU to layer new EU law and new EU regulation on NI, without a handbrake in sight, this will surely become a gift to ambitious Boris and Rishi’s ERG opponents, to whack Sunak with.
And the main thing driving vote at next election is erosion of income under 14 years of Tory government - erosion of income when inflation was zero, erosion of income because inflation is too high. Even if they tried to do something to address that now, there’s no way they can stop opponents weaponising this at the election.
If you pay by direct debit, you won't have paid Feb1 or Mar1.
Hundred quids plus if you're lucky out of disposable income next month.
Quite frankly can't afford mine.
I see the kinds of seats Labour needs to win and wonder?
Putin: "What's the good news?"
Xi Jinping: "I'm going to send a large number of weapons to Russia."
Putin: "And what's the bad news?"
Xi Jinping: "They will be to occupy Siberia."
But he may not.
There isn't a great deal of evidence that he comes across as a person like you.
Not batshit insane I'll grant you
I’d also argue that leader satisfaction/best PM numbers only really matter if there is a clear lead. Nip and tuck tells us very little.
One thing is absolutely clear, though: Sunak is a far better bet for the Tories than Johnson and he needs to keep his loons, from the Cabinet down, off the telly. If he can do that, an improving economy should mean he has a chance of a decent comeback.
I’ve thought a hung Parliament with Labour the biggest party is the most likely result for quite a while. I’m sticking with that - though if Scotland comes more into play a small majority is possible.
Based on how great he was at treasury, only at wasting eye watering sums of tax payers money? Zero growth to boast about? Or the fact he has collected more VPN than Boris?
Based on the naivety of his green card, his tax affairs, keeping his options open for the states?
It’s a general election set to be truly brutal for Rishi.
Followed by a revolt on the NI protocol. Then tax changes. And Council Tax bills arriving
You'd cry if it weren't so funny.
There is a blue dot for the Con 35.
You may need to refresh the page!
It's fair to say that China will not be happy with the current situation in Ukraine. They wanted a rapid Russian victory, with the West powerless to intercede. What they've got is a lesson in the advantages the defender has, and some serious concerns about just how good Russia weaponry is relative to US/French/British kit.
If Russia collapses, then it will have been a serious defeat for Xi. The West will lose a distraction, and it will be emboldened. As the New Statesman article notes, that means it can turn its full attention to China.
However, getting ever more involved is not without its risks either: backing Russia and then Russia still collapsing would be a serious loss of face for China.
What China would like now is a weakened Russia and a frozen conflict in Ukraine, that means that the West remains focused there. A weakened Russia would have exactly one major export market (China), and the prices Russia received for its oil and gas would reflect this. But China can't magic this scenario up: it needs to offer enough support to Russia to keep them fighting, without getting over-committed. That said, I wouldn't be surprised now to see ammunition heading to Russia, and maybe some artillery too, but it's hard to see what else China can send. Could they send planes? Sure, but they wouldn't be getting them back, and there are probably some language issues too.
Maybe you need to clear cookies or something, but it is definitely there.
If you are a finance geek, the numbers usually do the talking for you. Rishi still gets angsty when his assumptions are questioned. He's improving, but he starts a long way back.
"Time for a change" is beatable, of course it is. But it requires remarkable political talent (a major talent, one might say) to do so. Rishi isn't that good yet. He's got about a year.
One thing that has struck me over the last few weeks has been the far more positive reaction from some political journalists towards Rishi Sunak as an individual politician and PM who can get things done. But what he really needs though, is for the electorate to start seeing him as a 'safe pair of hands' as well as he and Jeremy Hunt as the 'the grown ups in charge' when it comes to the economy. There is no doubt that the Labour leadership are now getting concerned about the possibility that the UK economy could outperform the IMF forecast, and because right now their whole attack strategy seems to be based on the expectation that it won't in the next eighteen months.
But there is always the Boris sideshow to navigate in the coming weeks too, so that should be factored in, or not depending on the interest of the public.
Month vs. money... It's as simple as that.
So long as the West is supplying Ukraine, then it has the advantage in the former two: simply, the combined Western alliance is probably outproduced Russia handily at the moment. With that said, if the war changes, and Ukraine is on the offensive (as it appears to be right now), then it is the party that will be churning through the most kit.
As far as people go, well, it's a wash. Russia has a much larger population, which works in its favour. Ukraine, on the other hand, has been invaded, which works in its favour. Russia cannot give up on all its other military commitments - it cannot withdraw every last soldier from Siberia. Ukraine has no such issues. It's focus is solely on defending itself against Russia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far_Eastern_Federal_District
If we want to deter China from supplying arms to Russia then we have to convince them that we would impose serious hard trade barriers on them, for which we're prepared to suffer to ensure that they suffer.
I'd guess that would be the sort of economic dislocation that would lose Biden the Presidential election. I'm pretty worried that China will supply Russia with enough weaponry to keep Russia in the war indefinitely. Not convinced that the West is prepared to spend the money to increase military production.
cons still not clawed back to 30% yet, and anything in 20s is political doldrums.
The Tory’s will post a few points less than last times 28% at the coming locals, and the libdems doing so much better at the locals than current poll share, probably even bettering last times 12% will give Lib Dem’s a polling boost at Tories expense post locals. With this push for a good locals, we are probably seeing peak Sunak.
We have already passed peak Labour ratings for this parliament. Our dear departed horse won’t get another thirty % lead this side of the GE, and 20 % leads will soon become thin and far between.
Banking turmoil could prevent BoE raising interest rates.
Young women targeted for their eggs online
I chose to do those sex scenes smiles bitwc actress Adele Exarchopulis.
Sheep essential facts you don’t really need to know
Best thing for a political party to do with it's toxic waste is, dispose of it. Sooner rather than later.
Can well remember the yammering by some US Democrats when former US Senator Al Franken went splat. IF you recall, the Dem establishment banished him to outer darkness without undue delay, and replaced his sorry ass with a woman appointee, Sen. Tina Smith who won the next election, and holds the seat to this day.
Far more boring that her predecessor, and less funny, but better all round for the Democrats, Minnesota and USA.
Don't let garbage marinate on your doorstep!
Or is that not an “outlier” (trans. “Poll I do not like”).
Every Western country has announced big increases to Defence budgets, and pretty much every major arms manufacturer is reporting big order increases, albeit mostly of consumables right now.
A straw in the wind is that I had an email the other day from EDF touting for business. Not had that for a while.
There is now a risk that there is an air of complacency setting in among some senior Labour politicians, and that the current polling is automatically going to deliver them a 1997 GE result, and one which would see them achieve an outright majority despite their current seat base when it took the Conservatives two elections coming from a similar seat position. Again, this air of complacency is not helped by the fact that the SNP appear to be imploding in Scotland which could in a GE certainly add to the Labour Westminster seat tally. Look what happened to Theresa May in the 2017 GE.
Despite partygate and the brief Liz Truss madness, will this be as pivitol in voters minds when it comes to the economy if its clearly recovering at the next GE as the banking crisis, the pandemic or the war in Ukraine over has done over the last decade? As for the Reform party, where will they make the biggest impact if any at the next GE? I always thought it was quite ironic that in the end UKIP ended up becoming a stepping stone for Red Wall Labour voters to finally vote Conservative in 2019. One thing is clear, we now have a far more volatile UK wide electorate which has then seen all the main parties lose what were once regarded as safe heartland constituencies with large majorities via by-elections and GEs in the last decade.
Watch this https://youtu.be/Jji0JS5TPFk
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1637948128207814663?s=20
Fatigue has set in, which means time for a change for too many voters for the Conservatives to get close at the next election.
Off topic: Ukraine. Whilst we wait for the prospective Ukrainian offensive (reportedly with 25-28k troops), they are danger of suffering defeats in Donetsk. Whilst the Bakhmut front has stabilised marginally, other fronts in broader Donbas are in very shaky indeed.
Want to know when this Ukrainian offensive will be? Its not when substantive numbers of tanks arrive, its when substantive numbers of the US donated Bradleys arrive. They respresent a notable increase in firepower, troop protection and combat capability, if well used.
One point about the prospect of Chinese kit transferring to Russia, the biggest benefit will be in the unexciting area of munitions and bog standard vehicles. The Chinese depend on Russia for much of its highest tech weaponry, so short of shipping it back, its less likely that some smart new stuff out of China will have strategic impact. Given how poorly much of the tech has performed maybe China should take a hint on its supply chain.
I see his son from time to time in Port Talbot. A chip off the old block in all departments if ever there was one.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/nicola-sturgeon-scottish-sky-news-first-minister-b2304729.html
What a shower. That’s put me right off.
Sunak should use that clip to guarantee Tory majority “do you really want to put this lot into power? Seriously?”
No. The argument between the two distinguished PBers was if that particular blue dot was on the screen or not, which I was right to reply in either situation it’s a double edged sword. The other blue dot not part of the conversation. But you are right, both those blue dots should cancel the other out in averaging, except the smaller one, further from 29 than 35 is, causing average most harm.
You've read the room wrong there Rabbit, anyone who gets Heffer to throw his toys out of the pram isn't all bad
That clip alone I have completely forgiven my dad for being Tory all his life in every election. I guess I never truly appreciated what alternatives were.
will agree to a new rule only after there’s been an “applicability motion” – a vote in the Assembly – that is passed on a cross-community basis. This gives Unionists a de facto veto not only over replacement EU laws, but also new legislation flowing into the treaty. /2
There’re two conditions when UKG ministers may refuse – “exceptional circumstances” or where there wouldn’t be a new regulatory border (defined as either restrictions that may divert trade or impact the free flow of goods). But these conditions are fairly well defined. /3
In other words, the Stormont brake is actually *two brakes* – one for replacement EU laws and another for new EU laws. This is quite a win for all MLAs, but Unionists in particular. My view: take this offer and own it while it lasts. /Ends
https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1637872667641380864?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WHlrMJMok8
In 1997 labour went up 146. And that’s unlikely to happen this time.
What people forget is labour went into that election on 273 seats, this time on new boundaries about eighty less - even if they match Blair’s 146 it’s only 343 seats. Fall mere 18 less than Blair’s result and is no majority.
Chances of no majority for Labour and hung parliament should be odds on, chances of Labour majority a way out long shot.
Starmer fails to get a majority because of position Corbyn left him is the fact of this, so BJO can darn well keep quiet.
To reinforce the fact we are going to get a hung Parliament. What set up 1997 is 1992 the Tories went backwards a lot. Last time they went forward a lot to a landslide win. looking at the history of what tends to happen, You rarely get majority flipping to majority, let alone landslide flipping to majority, it can’t happen as regardless how bad midterm gets for governments, the psychology of elections states they don’t lose that many voters when it actually comes to the election.
However, looking again the history of what tends to happen, if we look beyond the next election, where Starmer falls short, he could have a follow up election before the five years where he gets a majority. The Tories, under a new inexperienced leader, won’t quickly bounce back to credibility or popularity on all the things that cost them the election.
Another possibility in my book, the forensic but boring Starmer, more ideally suited to opposition rather than government front bench and PM, gets replaced by the Labour Party for somebody more interesting and aggressive once they are in power. If Starmer did win a majority rather than coalition PM, that could hasten his demise ironically.
Correct me where wrong. Wasn’t that the election it later understood an out gay man was beaten by in the closet gay man ans people voted angainst the gay man? And the weird bloke sat next to Kinnock revealed to have dodgy back story too?
Isn’t it funny viewing clips like that whilst knowing the truth later revealed.
Labour have gone into the last two elections with what you have called “Foot without a brain” as leader.
So why when it’s all said and done was it important? What’s that 85? So another 12 years without a Labour government? And then a Labour government to preside over the gulf war, “cartel mode utilities” as someone said, and the only NHS hospital to ever be privatised?
The only thing RCS link screams at us is here’s a party that just cannot win the next general election (where they got thrashed in 87?)
I’ll tap out.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1637827523458244613?s=20
Well yes, but she still thinks the public is on her side over GRR.
And then there’s this:
Sturgeon: “if I have any words of so called wisdom not just to my successor or but leaders everywhere…don’t shy away from uncertainties, doubts and complexities- embrace them, explain them…be as bold as you can be.”
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1637832850832601089?s=20
Physician heal thyself.
https://slate.com/technology/2023/03/long-covid-symptoms-studies-research-variant.html
The Port Authority has also been reportedly warned that the possibility of car caravans could disrupt rush hour traffic, including traffic in bridges and tunnels.
https://twitter.com/calltoactivism/status/1638016348700782593
Can’t find it on CBS myself….
A generation later, little has changed with the current leader of the Party.
(Though Kinnock probably could have defined a woman).
Did they lack talent - those people who could sing, and play, and recite and write poetry; those people who could make wonderful, beautiful things with their hands; those people who could dream dreams, see visions; those people who had such a sense of perception as to know in times so brutal, so oppressive, that they could win their way out of that by coming together?
Was it because they were weak? Those people who could work eight hours underground and then come up and play football? Weak? Those women who could survive eleven child bearings, were they weak? Those people who could stand with their backs and their legs straight and face the people who had control over their lives, the ones who owned their workplaces and tried to own them, and tell them, 'No. I won't take your orders.' Were they weak?
Does anybody really think that they didn't get what we had because they didn't have the talent, or the strength, or the endurance, or the commitment?
Of course not. It was because there was no platform upon which they could stand; no arrangement for their neighbours to subscribe to their welfare; no method by which the communities could translate their desires for those individuals into provision for those individuals.
I don't much care for Kinnock as a politician, but he had great speechwriters. And that is a great speech (Welsh Labour Conference, Llandudno, 15 May 1987)