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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first general election after the AV referendum looks s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first general election after the AV referendum looks set to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting
Reproduced above is some fascinating data from today’s YouGov/ST poll on questions which try to tease out how people would cast their ballots if their party of choice didn’t look like winning in their constituency.
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Maybe one (or more) of the parties can add it to their manifesto. Seems like a good idea.
Very droll.
However, that was 10+ years ago; I'm sure the problem's been solved since. Has it?
UKIP 32,192 (51%)
Labour Lefties 15,590 (25%)
Tory-Boys 12,205 (19%)
LimpDems 1,940 (3%)
Greenies 688 (1%)
also-rans 388 (<1%)
Perhaps this could all be formalised like in the French system.
A week before the election identify those seats where UKIP are better poised to beat Labour than the Tories and urge their readers to vote UKIP?
Similarly will there be a reverse Billy Bragg operation? Didn´t he start a Labour/LD vote swap operation in 1997?
The remaining tactical vote in Tory/Lab marginals supports the Tories, and in Lib Dem/Labour run offs, it backs the Lib Dems.
People are lining up to block Labour.
It almost certainly happened in Heywood.
and FPT @Smarmeron
Those benefits I outlined do not particularly benefit the businesses allowing working from home. For a company there are downsides to allowing homeworking as well as upsides and the two tend to be finely balanced and without that balance being tipped then the decision seems to mostly come down to stay with the status quo. Eventually as allowing homeworking becomes the norm you could remove the incentive as firms who decided not to allow it after that would find it harder to compete on the recruitment front. There does however I feel need to be something to kickstart it.
The benefits to the country would be huge though
1) Less congestion on road and rail, reducing carbon for those who believe in AGW and reducing fossil fuel usage
2) The potential to free up office space for brownfield homes via hot desking
3) The wages being able to be spread over a wider portion of the country rather than the south east alone thus revitalising local economies up and down the land
4) Increased leisure time and less stress due to having to rush around on the weekends
5) Leaving more of workers pay in their pockets rather than having to fork it over in petrol or train fares
6) Reduce the need for child care as parents would be home more often when children come home from school
Do you really think all that benefit isn't worth a 1% tax concession? Are you so set on punishing companies for existing that you wouldn't buy that for a single percentage tax cut on companies putting that into place. A tax cut that would only be needed for a small number of years until potential recruits come to expect it and scorn companies that don't offer it?
The way I see it, in safe Labour seats, UKIP will replace the Conservatives as the anti-Labour alternative, while in Con-Lab marginals, all we have to do is stand still (thanks to Lib-Lab switchers balancing off the Lab-Kip switchers), while the Tory vote falls and they end up in a fight with UKIP for second.
If anyone can describe a scenario in which the UKIP rise enables James Wharton to hold Stockton South, I would be very surprised.
British Citizens yes, British citizens of western/northern European ethnicity, unlikely. My wife has a British passport, dosen't make her any less African.
re "horrendous level of immigration" Some would say the present level of immigration is horrendous. All the rate of immigration affects is the speed of the process.
There is no such thing as free childcare. The infrastructure and wages have to be paid for out of taxes which would rise to pay for it and make people less inclined to have children. Tax breaks and other encouragement for mothers to stay at home with their children rather than put them in state run day orphanages might work though.
The fact that mothers raising their own children at home is so sneered in the UK at rather than being regarded as on a par with being a doctor or a lawyer shows how the west puts materialism above the next generation.
Those who've switched already and large number of those who might tactically vote. Look at the YouGov detail to see. What could impede this move is LAB trying to be more beastly to immigrants than CON.
http://www.dover-express.co.uk/Ukip-set-landslide-win-2015-election/story-23072833-detail/story.html
UKIP 48
LAB 24
CON 18
LD 6
Not surprising numbers given that Dover is at the immigration forefront and it's also in Kent.
Ladbrokes has probably seen the poll as they have cut UKIP yesterday from 10/1 to 6/1 to win Dover.
Presumably the Ryder Cup team will win the team trophy.
Indeed it is not unusual these days for companies to have teams that span more than one geographical locale. Is it as good as face to face? No its not but its not far off
@LuckyGuy
The experience of these countries is that keeping out migrants is not as simple as it sounds.
So if UKIP were to cut inward migration to say 50 000, which 50 000 would they be?
For example we admit about 250 000 overseas students per year, of whom 20% are still in country eight years later. Should we close our universities to non UK citizens?
About 10% of our armed forces are overseas citizens. Should we deny these Fijians and Nepalese citizenship?
Should we refuse all asylum seekers, even Syrian Christian women whose husbands have been butchered and they sold as sex slaves?
Should we stop recruiting Philipino, Portuguese and Spanish Nurses, and close wards instead? Should we stop recruiting Doctors from India to man our Casualty departments?
Should we ban spouses of British citizens from residing here?
It is easy to bounce numbers about, but behind all these numbers there is a person and a consequence.
I am largely happy with the coalitions immigration policy, though would ban students on visas from working during their studies more than 12 hours per week, or from bringing in dependents, restore the rules on primary purpose for overseas spouses, and have harsh rules for any asylum seeker who entered the country illegally or who cannot produce papers.
We have the technology!
No-one's invented the virtual water-cooler or coffee machine yet. AFAIK, anyway!
The number of current Lib Dems who might back Labour = 20%
The number of current Lib Dems who might back Tory = 20%
So, an even split in LAB/CON marginals, but with a chunk of Kippers likely to back the Tories (34%)
In the case of LIB/CON marginals, Labour will back the Libs (36%), while the Kippers will back the Tories (30%)
In LIB/LAB marginals 45% of Tories to back the Libs. Kippers not especially keen on either.
This to me, points to:
1) Tories to do better in Tory/Lab marginals than currently expected
2) Libs to do better in both Tory/Lib and Lab/Lib marginals.
It might not be enough to change results, but the tactics are against Labour,
...who can Ed sack without fatally undermining his position?
Balls? I was wrong for 5 years.
Burnham? Yes, the NHS was unsafe in our hands.
Hunt? Gove was right.
Cooper? She might immediately call for a leadership contest, which she would probably win
As regards the not hereism mentioned this is why I suggested it was set at 2 days a week telecommuting to get the benefit rather than full on telecommuting though of course some may wish to offer as more days
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/why-rochester-matters-so-much/
"Even more damagingly for the Tories, there might be a vote of no confidence in Cameron. One Cabinet member warns, ‘If Reckless wins Rochester, there’ll be 46 names’."
Vote UKIP in Rochester=get rid of Cameron.
Which would you shoot first...must have misheard that bit.
Seriously, how can 4% of Labour supporters go "Who will I vote for? Labour. If only my party or the Lib Dems could win? Easy, the Lib Dems. Ah. Err. "?
On a wider view, though: FPTP vs AV. One has artificial majorities caused by lower preferences. The other, by ill-informed and blindly cast lower preferences ...
Since the Ugly one has no bullets, you shoot the Bad one.
I really want to see what's going on with Labour-UKIP switchers in Labour heartlands and marginals. Something needs to explain the overstating of Labour vote share over the last two years, and I'm beginning to think it may be UKIP. That's to say, traditional Labour voters shy of admitting they will vote UKIP. It's not huge, but it may explain the 2-5% overstatement and that could prove highly significant.
We could, could, end up with an extraordinary result in May. There are a number of ways in which either Labour or Conservatives could win a comfortable majority off a poll share in the 30's.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-29582866
Yes indeed Australia and Canada do have high levels of immigration. Guess what. They choose to do that and have a system in place that allows for the people they need to enter the country and the people they don't to be excluded. Simply because they want large numbers of immigrants in no way means their points system doesn't work. It does.
Only someone utterly lacking in basic logic would try to claim that because a country chooses to have large numbers of migrants, it invalidates the system they use for filtering those migrants. It doesn't.
In fact as a number of us have pointed out before, you Europhiles are actively supporting one of the most racist and bigoted immigration systems in existence in the world today. It says that if you are a white European,even if you have no skills, a criminal record and nothing to offer the country we will do nothing to stop you entering. If you are an Indian or African, South American or Asian, even if highly educated, trained and offering important skills to the country, we will make you jump through a hundred hoops and make it as difficult as possible for you to come and make our country a better place.
It is time the Eurosceptics made it clear that we are tired of seeing valuable assets to our country, people who can do great things for us, turned away or at the very least dissuaded from coming here just because we have too many losers who are here just because they happen to be white and European.
The Australian and Canadian systems work. Why on earth would you want to support the broken system we have now?
The biggest headache might be Darling, if he was on a promise for not quite losing Scotland.
I think that the Coalitions efforts have been appropriate, and that a few further steps are possible, in addition to the above, I would reduce the access to the welfare state for all migrants. This would perhaps require a root and branch reform for UK citizens to make benefits contribution dependent.
I have also no objections to health screening of immigrants too, but HIV should not be singled out. There are many other worse and more expensive diseases.
It does make sense that, since the coalition, natural Tories might see LibDems in a different light i.e Tories can't win here, I'd rather have a LibDem (potential coalition partner) than a Labour MP.
Only someone utterly lacking in basic logic would try to claim that because a country chooses to have large numbers of migrants, it invalidates the system they use for filtering those migrants. It doesn't.
In fact as a number of us have pointed out before, you Europhiles are actively supporting one of the most racist and bigoted immigration systems in existence in the world today. It says that if you are a white European,even if you have no skills, a criminal record and nothing to offer the country we will do nothing to stop you entering. If you are an Indian or African, South American or Asian, even if highly educated, trained and offering important skills to the country, we will make you jump through a hundred hoops and make it as difficult as possible for you to come and make our country a better place.
It is time the Eurosceptics made it clear that we are tired of seeing valuable assets to our country, people who can do great things for us, turned away or at the very least dissuaded from coming here just because we have too many losers who are here just because they happen to be white and European.
The Australian and Canadian systems work. Why on earth would you want to support the broken system we have now?
They are no more happy with their immigration system than we are. A points based system is deeply flawed, society cannot be valued by such a crude financial analysis.
Maybe Darling should take over from Alexander as campaign manager...
It would mean Labour losing even more of the English vote, including what is left of their core.
Bah, F1 tip was miles wrong. In my defence, Toro Rosso appear to have completely screwed up their set-up (entirely done for qualifying rather than the race), but still.
Anyway, will start the post-race writing now.
A weak and incompetent leader trying to look decisive and in control. That is bound to end well.
Back to my question: which categories would UKIP exclude. Students? Spouses? Ex UK military? Shortage areas such as Nurses and Doctors?
USA, Australia and Canada find lots of people who meet their points criteria and lots of immigration lawyers who find ways to get visas. I expect we would have the same.
Past waves of migrants from Europe have integrated well and added to British life, including the families of Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Michael Portillo, Michael Howard and even our very own NP. Largely this is because of common European heritage and values.
I know many more Indians living in India who have far closer cultural affinities to Britain than do many Poles, Germans or French living in England.
Like I said, the current immigration system is inherently racist and you have just given a very good example of the subliminal bigotry it exemplifies.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429903.400-gamers-polled-on-xbox-can-predict-us-election-results.html?cmpid=RSS|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|online-news#.VDqNAvldUac
Wythenshawe, Newark, Heywood and Clacton aggregate votes:
UKIP 46,458 (36.7%)
Labour 35,693 (28.2%)
Tories 33,115 (26.2%)
LibDems 4,120 (3.3%)
Green 3,363 (2.7%)
BNP 708 (0.6%)
others 3,021 (2.4%)
Tesco could do the same by quizzing their club card holders.
http://markreckless.com/find-us/
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/russia-post-race-analysis.html
Another red race, alas, but at least the qualifying bet reduces the loss.
DecIared by Goodwin et ai to be a top 15 UKIP target.
How to vote to get one fewer GIoria in the Commons?
How to send him back to his miIIon pound fIat in CheIsea for good?
Worth recalling several Cabinet members have a vested interest in trying to get rid of him.
But it is not enough to speak English, have a higher degree and work for a living to integrate into British culture. Most of the 9/11 bombers would have met the points system.
EU migrants will just be other Brits with un-spellable surnames within a generation or two. Just look at how well integrated the postwar East European refugees are now. They are not the migrants who set up ethnic ghettos and refuse to intermarry.
Very dull race I thought. Quite incredible that a driver should have to take a prolonged stop and tyre change on the first lap and still come second. Shows how uncompetitive it is at the moment. As bad as Red Bull were over the last few years.
The current system is inherently racist for the very reasons I have explained and it is shameful that you are defending it for whatever strange Eurofanatical reasons you might have.
That said, the race was on the boring side. Too hard to overtake and bulletproof tyres do not make for excitement.
No more defectors. Carswell a rival power base, with real democratic authority...
Caroline Flint
Then she could appear on TV the next day complaining about window dressing
"Do you have a favourable/unfavourable view of:
David Cameron: +25% / -48%
Conservative Party: +25% / -48%"
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_28th_September_2014_8723.pdf
We're finally seeing the fall of the left in this country. What's particularly great is that the more they ignore the people on matters like immigration and multiculturalism, the more this will happen. Labour is sowing the seeds of its own destruction, and they won't be able to import immigrants fast enough to make up for the loss of their WWC base. Though God knows they'll try.
http://now-here-this.timeout.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/ethnic_density1.jpg