If Boris, whose behaviour has been instrumental in seeing off 3 of the last 4 Tory PMs already (and he hardly got a chance with Truss), pitches for a fourth decapitation and a return, I guess there goes Sunak's option for Boris to exit in quiet honour to the speech circuit that those HMG lawyers' fees are paying to achieve.
Sunak then has to change track and go for the total obliteration of Johnson, if the material we suspect is there is there, so that even an army of 100s rallied to the Brexit cause can be in no doubt Boris is politically entombed in more concrete than Chernobyl's reactor core.
There's on one way to sort this. Fight!
This is Sunak we're talking about - you missed the L out of flight!
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
So nice to know that because Boris wants his old job back and will refuse any deal as a result, that you think Sunak should abandon a deal he presumably thinks is in the best interests of the country, and leave us in limbo for another 12-16 months. Very responsible governance.
Absolute gift to Starmer. Yet again a lucky general. He can stand back and tell the Tories to grow up.
None of the strikes are resolved yet either, as far as I can tell. A government committed to doing absolutely nothing about anything.
Not quite true. Be fair. They are proposing to rationalise the treasure trove legislation in E, W and NI, so it's notd focussed solely on 'hoards' and/or gold and/or silver. Which is actually a bit of a surprise, if it ends up being like the legislation in Scotland for decades, centuries I think, which declares all antoquities state (more correctly crown) property and allocates them toi appropriate museums, but with compensation to the finder.
Prediction: the assertion by MSP “Ash Regan” that the next GE or Holyrood election will be a de facto plebiscite, with 50% for Indy parties meaning independence must happen, will not withstand a week of scrutiny
What happens if the Indy parties don’t get 50%, is Indy then abandoned? For how long? Who decides how long? If it’s not abandoned then this just means the Nits can call a referendum, ie an election, whenever they like, for as long as they like, every year if needs be. They could have two “de facto referendums” a month, and the rest of the UK, destabilized by this, can go fuck itself
I kind of hope she wins so we can see this idiocy collide with legal and constitutional reality. It will not be pretty
It's not especially difficult to understand. If the threshold isn't reached then it's not taken as a mandate for independence. But that doesn't stop a future election being run on the same principle. It's not like the SNP hasn't already run on every election since the year dot as a pro-independence party. There's nothing really changed in that sense.
You can put whatever you want in your manifesto when your party stands for election. Whether anyone buys it is for the electorate to decide.
In this case the obvious question would be "sure, the principle is sound. What happens when you enact it and invite Westminster to the negotiation table and they just say 'nah, not today mate'. What will you do then"?
She seems to be claiming this will be a lot more than a normal election. It will be a de facto referendum
As I say, it won’t withstand scrutiny. She surely knows this and is bidding to be the Indy hardcore candidate
What if she won the leadership, called an election on this basis, and unionists boycotted it? What then?
it’s a recipe for getting Indy bogged down in decades of legal bickering
It's not as if Farage was only allowed to stand for election on the principle of getting the UK out of the EU for one election cycle. If I put in my manifesto that I want to introduce a universal basic income and don't win the election then I can't propose it next time round because it's been rejected for an indeterminate period of time? If I'm in opposition and say I want to improve the NHS two, three electoral cycles running then I'm trying to browbeat the nation into agreeing with the principle?
As I say the problem isn't the principle. On any given election you stand on and for what you believe, regardless of previous electoral cycles. You put what you'd do in your manifesto if you win. If no-one wants that then you don't win. It's pretty simple.
As I say in this instance the issue is more in the substance of what you actually do after you win and enact your manifesto. The SNP can put whatever they like in their election manifesto. Whether anyone else actually recognises that if the SNP win is a totally separate issue.
If Westminster want to actually properly clarify the circumstances in which Section 30 orders would be granted if requested, then perhaps the discussion would be different, but otherwise I see no particular problem here.
So the 50+1 vow is legally, practically, constitutionally and technically meaningless? It’s pure gesture, and its main consequence will be to make the Nat leader look stupid?
As I said, it won’t survive scrutiny. It hasn’t survived 5 minutes on PB
Regan is saying next time if they win an election and break 50% they won't be asking for a S30. They'll basically say they have a mandate to negotiate independence, not a mandate to ask WM politely if they'd ever so kindly mind granting the powers for a referendum to see if anyone wants independence.
From a Scotland Act position I suspect WM will be legally as able to say "fuck off" to that as they are to a S30 request. But they will have proven once and for all that the UK isn't a voluntary union.
As I say the question at that point is "what does First Minister Ash Regan do when WM just ignore that anyway"? But that's a separate discussion to the actual premise of the manifesto.
Use International law that states a country should be free to decide their own countries future.
What does 'use international law' mean in this context?
The international community is pretty comfortable with ignoring areas saying they do not want to be part of another country. Scotland would garner a lot more sympathy than most, especially if Westminster is ignoring any alternative options, but it would still come down to what action could a FM take to force the issue, at hpome and abroad? Refuse to sit in Holyrood? Daily protests outside Downing Street?
This isn't to dismiss your desire, I just genuinely do not know what you mean by 'using' international law, rather than simply appealing for recognition on the basis of it.
The idea of "using" the right to self determination as a means of construing the terms of the Scotland Act was attempted by those representing the SNP in their written submissions to the Referendum decision in the Supreme Court. The argument was that the right to self determination meant that the Scotland Act had to be construed in a way consistent with that obligation or right. To say that it got nowhere in the judgment is being polite.
So you agree we are a colony being held captive by a belligerent bigger neighbour and not in a voluntary union then David. An English court can just decide our future.
It wasn't an English court Malcolm, it was a Scottish court with 2 Scottish Judges in charge. The law is really clear and Nicola was wasting everyone's time with the reference.
But the law is one thing and politics are something else. Scotland must have a way of forcing a referendum if the majority of Scots vote for it. That is not a legal argument but a political one but it is real for all that. It's why I took the view that the Nationalists had earned their referendum, even although I don't want it. I take the point that the UK is entitled not to be continually disrupted by referendum after referendum. But a political solution needs to be found and politicians need to start behaving like adults rather than brats.
We do agree there David, current situation cannot remain and will only force the issue. If unionists are so sure the union is great then they should not be so cowardly and hide behind bad laws. Failure to confirm how a free country can decide it's future if the majority want it just confirms we are a colony.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
I think they ought to be expelled. These people are the scorpion in the fable of the scorpion and the frog. They enjoy causing harm to this country just because it’s in their nature to do so.
This is the trouble with Euroscepticism and Brexit. We know what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - scuttling around the UK economy handing out fuck you notices to its own multinational businesses.
The most foreseeable crisis in existence - Boris and the DUP being obstructive.
Duddridge might as well be more honest though. He's not saying 'For all his faults' etc etc, he is saying 'the faults do not matter to me and I wish they did not matter to anyone else'.
Dudders ought to say “ I do this because I’m an over-promoted twat who enjoys causing harm to my constituents. “. That would be honest.
I think it's just bizarre, to be honest. Yes, Boris has his appeal, he has had successes and been underestimated many times, but his leadership was so egregiously bad his own MPs revolted, and he cannot claim to have learned his lessons because people like Dudderidge either insist he made no mistakes at all to learn from, or that none of that stuff matters.
So they know very well he would behave in the same self destructive manner, and force his MPs to defend him in the indefensible which drove them against him in the first place. That's the logic of the 'for all his faults' people. And that's meant to be a good thing?
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
So nice to know that because Boris wants his old job back and will refuse any deal as a result, that you think Sunak should abandon a deal he presumably thinks is in the best interests of the country, and leave us in limbo for another 12-16 months. Very responsible governance.
Absolute gift to Starmer. Yet again a lucky general. He can stand back and tell the Tories to grow up.
None of the strikes are resolved yet either, as far as I can tell. A government committed to doing absolutely nothing about anything.
Not quite true. Be fair. They are proposing to rationalise the treasure trove legislation in E, W and NI, so it's notd focussed solely on 'hoards' and/or gold and/or silver. Which is actually a bit of a surprise, if it ends up being like the legislation in Scotland for decades, centuries I think, which declares all antoquities state (more correctly crown) property and allocates them toi appropriate museums, but with compensation to the finder.
On a sort of related topic a local detectorist found some Roman coins on our vineyard last week.
Prediction: the assertion by MSP “Ash Regan” that the next GE or Holyrood election will be a de facto plebiscite, with 50% for Indy parties meaning independence must happen, will not withstand a week of scrutiny
What happens if the Indy parties don’t get 50%, is Indy then abandoned? For how long? Who decides how long? If it’s not abandoned then this just means the Nits can call a referendum, ie an election, whenever they like, for as long as they like, every year if needs be. They could have two “de facto referendums” a month, and the rest of the UK, destabilized by this, can go fuck itself
I kind of hope she wins so we can see this idiocy collide with legal and constitutional reality. It will not be pretty
It's not especially difficult to understand. If the threshold isn't reached then it's not taken as a mandate for independence. But that doesn't stop a future election being run on the same principle. It's not like the SNP hasn't already run on every election since the year dot as a pro-independence party. There's nothing really changed in that sense.
You can put whatever you want in your manifesto when your party stands for election. Whether anyone buys it is for the electorate to decide.
In this case the obvious question would be "sure, the principle is sound. What happens when you enact it and invite Westminster to the negotiation table and they just say 'nah, not today mate'. What will you do then"?
She seems to be claiming this will be a lot more than a normal election. It will be a de facto referendum
As I say, it won’t withstand scrutiny. She surely knows this and is bidding to be the Indy hardcore candidate
What if she won the leadership, called an election on this basis, and unionists boycotted it? What then?
it’s a recipe for getting Indy bogged down in decades of legal bickering
It's not as if Farage was only allowed to stand for election on the principle of getting the UK out of the EU for one election cycle. If I put in my manifesto that I want to introduce a universal basic income and don't win the election then I can't propose it next time round because it's been rejected for an indeterminate period of time? If I'm in opposition and say I want to improve the NHS two, three electoral cycles running then I'm trying to browbeat the nation into agreeing with the principle?
As I say the problem isn't the principle. On any given election you stand on and for what you believe, regardless of previous electoral cycles. You put what you'd do in your manifesto if you win. If no-one wants that then you don't win. It's pretty simple.
As I say in this instance the issue is more in the substance of what you actually do after you win and enact your manifesto. The SNP can put whatever they like in their election manifesto. Whether anyone else actually recognises that if the SNP win is a totally separate issue.
If Westminster want to actually properly clarify the circumstances in which Section 30 orders would be granted if requested, then perhaps the discussion would be different, but otherwise I see no particular problem here.
So the 50+1 vow is legally, practically, constitutionally and technically meaningless? It’s pure gesture, and its main consequence will be to make the Nat leader look stupid?
As I said, it won’t survive scrutiny. It hasn’t survived 5 minutes on PB
Regan is saying next time if they win an election and break 50% they won't be asking for a S30. They'll basically say they have a mandate to negotiate independence, not a mandate to ask WM politely if they'd ever so kindly mind granting the powers for a referendum to see if anyone wants independence.
From a Scotland Act position I suspect WM will be legally as able to say "fuck off" to that as they are to a S30 request. But they will have proven once and for all that the UK isn't a voluntary union.
As I say the question at that point is "what does First Minister Ash Regan do when WM just ignore that anyway"? But that's a separate discussion to the actual premise of the manifesto.
Use International law that states a country should be free to decide their own countries future.
What does 'use international law' mean in this context?
The international community is pretty comfortable with ignoring areas saying they do not want to be part of another country. Scotland would garner a lot more sympathy than most, especially if Westminster is ignoring any alternative options, but it would still come down to what action could a FM take to force the issue, at hpome and abroad? Refuse to sit in Holyrood? Daily protests outside Downing Street?
This isn't to dismiss your desire, I just genuinely do not know what you mean by 'using' international law, rather than simply appealing for recognition on the basis of it.
The idea of "using" the right to self determination as a means of construing the terms of the Scotland Act was attempted by those representing the SNP in their written submissions to the Referendum decision in the Supreme Court. The argument was that the right to self determination meant that the Scotland Act had to be construed in a way consistent with that obligation or right. To say that it got nowhere in the judgment is being polite.
So you agree we are a colony being held captive by a belligerent bigger neighbour and not in a voluntary union then David. An English court can just decide our future.
It wasn't an English court Malcolm, it was a Scottish court with 2 Scottish Judges in charge. The law is really clear and Nicola was wasting everyone's time with the reference.
But the law is one thing and politics are something else. Scotland must have a way of forcing a referendum if the majority of Scots vote for it. That is not a legal argument but a political one but it is real for all that. It's why I took the view that the Nationalists had earned their referendum, even although I don't want it. I take the point that the UK is entitled not to be continually disrupted by referendum after referendum. But a political solution needs to be found and politicians need to start behaving like adults rather than brats.
Even the 'once in a generation' argument for not responding grows weaker as time moves on. It's risky, but even some very hard pre-conditions to meet would make it less blatantly just a strategy of 'Say no, and hope something comes up'.
The most foreseeable crisis in existence - Boris and the DUP being obstructive.
Duddridge might as well be more honest though. He's not saying 'For all his faults' etc etc, he is saying 'the faults do not matter to me and I wish they did not matter to anyone else'.
Dudders ought to say “ I do this because I’m an over-promoted twat who enjoys causing harm to my constituents. “. That would be honest.
The Tories are skating on very thin ice. Getting rid of another PM and replacing him with a former one that few people are longing to see return could kill them for a generation.
Prediction: the assertion by MSP “Ash Regan” that the next GE or Holyrood election will be a de facto plebiscite, with 50% for Indy parties meaning independence must happen, will not withstand a week of scrutiny
What happens if the Indy parties don’t get 50%, is Indy then abandoned? For how long? Who decides how long? If it’s not abandoned then this just means the Nits can call a referendum, ie an election, whenever they like, for as long as they like, every year if needs be. They could have two “de facto referendums” a month, and the rest of the UK, destabilized by this, can go fuck itself
I kind of hope she wins so we can see this idiocy collide with legal and constitutional reality. It will not be pretty
It's not especially difficult to understand. If the threshold isn't reached then it's not taken as a mandate for independence. But that doesn't stop a future election being run on the same principle. It's not like the SNP hasn't already run on every election since the year dot as a pro-independence party. There's nothing really changed in that sense.
You can put whatever you want in your manifesto when your party stands for election. Whether anyone buys it is for the electorate to decide.
In this case the obvious question would be "sure, the principle is sound. What happens when you enact it and invite Westminster to the negotiation table and they just say 'nah, not today mate'. What will you do then"?
She seems to be claiming this will be a lot more than a normal election. It will be a de facto referendum
As I say, it won’t withstand scrutiny. She surely knows this and is bidding to be the Indy hardcore candidate
What if she won the leadership, called an election on this basis, and unionists boycotted it? What then?
it’s a recipe for getting Indy bogged down in decades of legal bickering
It's not as if Farage was only allowed to stand for election on the principle of getting the UK out of the EU for one election cycle. If I put in my manifesto that I want to introduce a universal basic income and don't win the election then I can't propose it next time round because it's been rejected for an indeterminate period of time? If I'm in opposition and say I want to improve the NHS two, three electoral cycles running then I'm trying to browbeat the nation into agreeing with the principle?
As I say the problem isn't the principle. On any given election you stand on and for what you believe, regardless of previous electoral cycles. You put what you'd do in your manifesto if you win. If no-one wants that then you don't win. It's pretty simple.
As I say in this instance the issue is more in the substance of what you actually do after you win and enact your manifesto. The SNP can put whatever they like in their election manifesto. Whether anyone else actually recognises that if the SNP win is a totally separate issue.
If Westminster want to actually properly clarify the circumstances in which Section 30 orders would be granted if requested, then perhaps the discussion would be different, but otherwise I see no particular problem here.
So the 50+1 vow is legally, practically, constitutionally and technically meaningless? It’s pure gesture, and its main consequence will be to make the Nat leader look stupid?
As I said, it won’t survive scrutiny. It hasn’t survived 5 minutes on PB
Regan is saying next time if they win an election and break 50% they won't be asking for a S30. They'll basically say they have a mandate to negotiate independence, not a mandate to ask WM politely if they'd ever so kindly mind granting the powers for a referendum to see if anyone wants independence.
From a Scotland Act position I suspect WM will be legally as able to say "fuck off" to that as they are to a S30 request. But they will have proven once and for all that the UK isn't a voluntary union.
As I say the question at that point is "what does First Minister Ash Regan do when WM just ignore that anyway"? But that's a separate discussion to the actual premise of the manifesto.
Use International law that states a country should be free to decide their own countries future.
What does 'use international law' mean in this context?
The international community is pretty comfortable with ignoring areas saying they do not want to be part of another country. Scotland would garner a lot more sympathy than most, especially if Westminster is ignoring any alternative options, but it would still come down to what action could a FM take to force the issue, at hpome and abroad? Refuse to sit in Holyrood? Daily protests outside Downing Street?
This isn't to dismiss your desire, I just genuinely do not know what you mean by 'using' international law, rather than simply appealing for recognition on the basis of it.
The idea of "using" the right to self determination as a means of construing the terms of the Scotland Act was attempted by those representing the SNP in their written submissions to the Referendum decision in the Supreme Court. The argument was that the right to self determination meant that the Scotland Act had to be construed in a way consistent with that obligation or right. To say that it got nowhere in the judgment is being polite.
So you agree we are a colony being held captive by a belligerent bigger neighbour and not in a voluntary union then David. An English court can just decide our future.
It wasn't an English court Malcolm, it was a Scottish court with 2 Scottish Judges in charge. The law is really clear and Nicola was wasting everyone's time with the reference.
But the law is one thing and politics are something else. Scotland must have a way of forcing a referendum if the majority of Scots vote for it. That is not a legal argument but a political one but it is real for all that. It's why I took the view that the Nationalists had earned their referendum, even although I don't want it. I take the point that the UK is entitled not to be continually disrupted by referendum after referendum. But a political solution needs to be found and politicians need to start behaving like adults rather than brats.
We do agree there David, current situation cannot remain and will only force the issue. If unionists are so sure the union is great then they should not be so cowardly and hide behind bad laws. Failure to confirm how a free country can decide it's future if the majority want it just confirms we are a colony.
Quite, though I'd beg to differ with DavidL on one point: I feel he is wrong on the suggestion about the SC case being a waste of time - it crystallised the situation and made it clear that HMG (London) is hiding behind relatively recent and contingent acts of parliament which in no way bind it or indeed its successors.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
Sunak is so totally and utterly and predictably weak. It’s pathetic. And just how bad at politics do you have to be to not have realised that Johnson and the ERG would oppose any deal that does not represent what they regard as a defeat for the EU?
One final thought: the only thing more ridiculous than English Nationalist Tories pretending to care about Northern I reland is the DUP believing them.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well
It wouldn't be the current deal in that case! That was the crux of the problem.
The DUP like the terms of the current deal for GB, as do the ERG, they just want the same terms for Northern Ireland too, even if it means a border in Ireland rather than the Irish Sea.
However obviously the EU and Dublin would never agree any new deal on those terms
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Sunak is so totally and utterly and predictably weak. It’s pathetic. And just how bad at politics do you have to be to not have realised that Johnson and the ERG would oppose any deal that does not represent what they regard as a defeat for the EU?
One final thought: the only thing more ridiculous than English Nationalist Tories pretending to care about Northern I reland is the DUP believing them.
It is getting a bit groundhog day, isn't it?
Except that the recent decease of the groundhog is not a good omen.
Anyway, night all. I have a nice book on battleships to read in bed.
If the US switched to a popular vote system, my guess is the GOP would see a boost in its share just by that alone.
And my guess is that it wouldn't. Because what you are overlooking is that the development of the current voting blocks is a very recent phenomenon. Reagan could realistically challenge in every state in 1984. As could Nixon in 72 and Johnson in 68.
What has happened is that the Republican base has severely narrowed itself and become hollowed out. And it hasn't finished yet. Even in states we think of as Republican territory - Georgia, Arizona, Colorado all spring to mind - they are starting to struggle.
Parties do respond to incentives though. Right now the GOP is pretty right-wing and populist because various properties of the system and the current electoral distribution (eg rural voters being heavily R, small states giving them a Senate advantage, President not being popular-vote, ability to gerrymander, supreme court majority) mean they can lean a long way right and still win. In a system which required a less rightward stance to win the party would eventually shift its position, I think.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Evening, BigG: hope you are keeping well.
Quite so.
Actually have had a dreadful coughing bug for the last three weeks which is proving difficult to shift but thank you for asking
If Sunak cannot agree this deal it will finish the conservative party for my lifetime ( though at 79 now sure how long that might be)
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Prediction: the assertion by MSP “Ash Regan” that the next GE or Holyrood election will be a de facto plebiscite, with 50% for Indy parties meaning independence must happen, will not withstand a week of scrutiny
What happens if the Indy parties don’t get 50%, is Indy then abandoned? For how long? Who decides how long? If it’s not abandoned then this just means the Nits can call a referendum, ie an election, whenever they like, for as long as they like, every year if needs be. They could have two “de facto referendums” a month, and the rest of the UK, destabilized by this, can go fuck itself
I kind of hope she wins so we can see this idiocy collide with legal and constitutional reality. It will not be pretty
It's not especially difficult to understand. If the threshold isn't reached then it's not taken as a mandate for independence. But that doesn't stop a future election being run on the same principle. It's not like the SNP hasn't already run on every election since the year dot as a pro-independence party. There's nothing really changed in that sense.
You can put whatever you want in your manifesto when your party stands for election. Whether anyone buys it is for the electorate to decide.
In this case the obvious question would be "sure, the principle is sound. What happens when you enact it and invite Westminster to the negotiation table and they just say 'nah, not today mate'. What will you do then"?
She seems to be claiming this will be a lot more than a normal election. It will be a de facto referendum
As I say, it won’t withstand scrutiny. She surely knows this and is bidding to be the Indy hardcore candidate
What if she won the leadership, called an election on this basis, and unionists boycotted it? What then?
it’s a recipe for getting Indy bogged down in decades of legal bickering
It's not as if Farage was only allowed to stand for election on the principle of getting the UK out of the EU for one election cycle. If I put in my manifesto that I want to introduce a universal basic income and don't win the election then I can't propose it next time round because it's been rejected for an indeterminate period of time? If I'm in opposition and say I want to improve the NHS two, three electoral cycles running then I'm trying to browbeat the nation into agreeing with the principle?
As I say the problem isn't the principle. On any given election you stand on and for what you believe, regardless of previous electoral cycles. You put what you'd do in your manifesto if you win. If no-one wants that then you don't win. It's pretty simple.
As I say in this instance the issue is more in the substance of what you actually do after you win and enact your manifesto. The SNP can put whatever they like in their election manifesto. Whether anyone else actually recognises that if the SNP win is a totally separate issue.
If Westminster want to actually properly clarify the circumstances in which Section 30 orders would be granted if requested, then perhaps the discussion would be different, but otherwise I see no particular problem here.
So the 50+1 vow is legally, practically, constitutionally and technically meaningless? It’s pure gesture, and its main consequence will be to make the Nat leader look stupid?
As I said, it won’t survive scrutiny. It hasn’t survived 5 minutes on PB
Regan is saying next time if they win an election and break 50% they won't be asking for a S30. They'll basically say they have a mandate to negotiate independence, not a mandate to ask WM politely if they'd ever so kindly mind granting the powers for a referendum to see if anyone wants independence.
From a Scotland Act position I suspect WM will be legally as able to say "fuck off" to that as they are to a S30 request. But they will have proven once and for all that the UK isn't a voluntary union.
As I say the question at that point is "what does First Minister Ash Regan do when WM just ignore that anyway"? But that's a separate discussion to the actual premise of the manifesto.
Use International law that states a country should be free to decide their own countries future.
What does 'use international law' mean in this context?
The international community is pretty comfortable with ignoring areas saying they do not want to be part of another country. Scotland would garner a lot more sympathy than most, especially if Westminster is ignoring any alternative options, but it would still come down to what action could a FM take to force the issue, at hpome and abroad? Refuse to sit in Holyrood? Daily protests outside Downing Street?
This isn't to dismiss your desire, I just genuinely do not know what you mean by 'using' international law, rather than simply appealing for recognition on the basis of it.
The idea of "using" the right to self determination as a means of construing the terms of the Scotland Act was attempted by those representing the SNP in their written submissions to the Referendum decision in the Supreme Court. The argument was that the right to self determination meant that the Scotland Act had to be construed in a way consistent with that obligation or right. To say that it got nowhere in the judgment is being polite.
So you agree we are a colony being held captive by a belligerent bigger neighbour and not in a voluntary union then David. An English court can just decide our future.
It wasn't an English court Malcolm, it was a Scottish court with 2 Scottish Judges in charge. The law is really clear and Nicola was wasting everyone's time with the reference.
But the law is one thing and politics are something else. Scotland must have a way of forcing a referendum if the majority of Scots vote for it. That is not a legal argument but a political one but it is real for all that. It's why I took the view that the Nationalists had earned their referendum, even although I don't want it. I take the point that the UK is entitled not to be continually disrupted by referendum after referendum. But a political solution needs to be found and politicians need to start behaving like adults rather than brats.
We do agree there David, current situation cannot remain and will only force the issue. If unionists are so sure the union is great then they should not be so cowardly and hide behind bad laws. Failure to confirm how a free country can decide it's future if the majority want it just confirms we are a colony.
Quite, though I'd beg to differ with DavidL on one point: I feel he is wrong on the suggestion about the SC case being a waste of time - it crystallised the situation and made it clear that HMG (London) is hiding behind relatively recent and contingent acts of parliament which in no way bind it or indeed its successors.
Sturgeon knew her strategy had come to a dead end; the Supreme Court case made both that and the constitutional injustice apparent.
It was a political kamikaze, perhaps. A shame she didn't resign on the spot for full melodramatic effect (that's how our resident thriller writer would've crafted it).
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
Surely it is worse though, as it isn't as though there's been an infiltration. Just conversion. It's not as though Sunak or anyone else actually had a problem with Boris's negatives until it started looking bad for them personally. They aren't enthusiastic for Sunak.
Given the choice they probably would go back and not oust Boris if they could.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Evening, BigG: hope you are keeping well.
Quite so.
Actually have had a dreadful coughing bug for the last three weeks which is proving difficult to shift but thank you for asking
If Sunak cannot agree this deal it will finish the conservative party for my lifetime ( though at 79 now sure how long that might be)
I think Starmer has promised Labour votes if they're needed to win any Commons divisions.
Trouble is that Rishi (can we start calling him Rishi Washy?) also needs to win with Conservative MPs... the same problem May had. And a lot of them are headbangers.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Evening, BigG: hope you are keeping well.
Quite so.
Actually have had a dreadful coughing bug for the last three weeks which is proving difficult to shift but thank you for asking
If Sunak cannot agree this deal it will finish the conservative party for my lifetime ( though at 79 now sure how long that might be)
I think Starmer has promised Labour votes if they're needed to win any Commons divisions.
Trouble is that Rishi (can we start calling him Rishi Washy?) also needs to win with Conservative MPs... the same problem May had. And a lot of them are headbangers.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
My concern is that the country needs a viable opposition to a Starmer landslide and that does not include Johnson or his cult followers
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
My concern is that the country needs a viable opposition to a Starmer landslide and that does not include Johnson or his cult followers
Were it any other poster, I'd suggest there's a typo in your penultimate word. But I know you wouldn't use such language.
O/T, Harvard-Harris poll showing Trump with double the support of RDS (46/23) as well as +5 v Biden. Trump also has more solidity of support vs rivals than Biden does when it comes to the Democrat nomination.
Alternatively, there's a quinnipac poll from three days ago showing a very different picture
Biden 48% Trump 46% there but De Santis 47% Biden 46%
Someone on here I think (sorry, I forget who) said De Santis beats Biden, Biden beats Trump, Trump beats Generic Democrat, and Generic Democrat beats De Santis.
I don't think it's as inevitable as that, but there is a pretty big grain of truth in it.
Still, time to register the website Trump2030.com.
Largely but I think DeSantis beats Generic Democrat too unless Trump went Independent, certainly he easily beats Harris like Trump. Biden may be the Democrats best hope in 2024 as in 2020
A De Santis election would be a lower turnout election. He is, in many senses, a Generic Republican.
That's not really a criticism - generic doesn't mean bad, it just means if you had to draw a Republican candidate, he'd look a lot like him - solid conservative credentials, record as Governor if a big state, nice tan etc.
That looks okay against an elderly sitting President who isn't very popular. Against a similar Democrat, it's not so good as probably Democrats JUST have the edge, and De Santis isn't going to win over a lot of Democrats. But Biden is a problem for Trump and lives rent free in his head.
For all their talk, I think the Democrats would prefer to face RDS than Trump. He's more of a "known" and won't get the base out like Trump. I also think a loss to RDS would be more palatable for Democrats.
Also while Biden is in Trump's head, Trump is also certainly in Biden's.
I agree that, because De Santis is more "normal" it would be more palatable. Hence a lower turnout election. He'd pursue policies Democrats would hate, of course, but he's not really a threat to American democracy and rule of law.
On Trump being in Biden's head, no doubt he thinks of himself as the anti-Trumo. But that's a hell of a lot easier to deal with when you've beaten him. Biden just needs to say "remember when I handed your ass back to you in 2020, Don? Good times" and Trump spirals into plate throwing insanity. So that's the campaign strategy.
In Donald's head, he's already "dealt" with that by saying the media got Biden over the line by hiding the Hunter Biden laptop story. I think for Biden, conversely, I think he's also aware that, despite his political pedigree and record, he nearly lost to Trump (based on how few votes would have had to switch in swing states for a different outcome). I'm not so sure Biden would be so confident in his head - I wouldn't but I'm not him.
he nearly lost to Trump (based on how few votes would have had to switch in swing states for a different outcome)
On that basis, almost every losing candidate (in the US or the UK) only lost by the narrowest of margins.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed.
This is of course not a coincidence...much easier to be a loon if you're not worried about the risk of your more centrist constituents taking a disliking to you.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
My concern is that the country needs a viable opposition to a Starmer landslide and that does not include Johnson or his cult followers
Were it any other poster, I'd suggest there's a typo in your penultimate word. But I know you wouldn't use such language.
You are absolutely correct
I have never used bad language in my posts as I consider it unnecessary to demonstrate my point
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman and Kemi Badenoch would hold their seats
What the hell's going on with the NI deal? I was assured - absolutely assured - by at least two prominent PBers that Rishi had got 98% of what the UK wanted and the EU was on the run.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Unless those voters locally decide to hand out punishment beatings and they go despite UNS saying they are safe. Probably doesn't apply to Badenoch though.
What the hell's going on with the NI deal? I was assured - absolutely assured - by at least two prominent PBers that Rishi had got 98% of what the UK wanted and the EU was on the run.
I do not think anyone said the EU was on the run but Sunak seems close to a deal with the EU and I expect he will announce it notwithstanding Johnson and his followers protestations
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Chrsito Grozev being asked not to attend the Baftas because it was deemed a security risk is rather troubling. Are investigative journalists not safe in this country?
What the hell's going on with the NI deal? I was assured - absolutely assured - by at least two prominent PBers that Rishi had got 98% of what the UK wanted and the EU was on the run.
Some of the ERG crowd in the past have in essence said that any deal the EU would accept is by definition one that is unacceptable for the UK, demonstrating they have no idea what a deal even is.
So even if it was 98-2 the very fact of agreement would damn Sunak in their eyes - Boris got away with doing a deal in the frenetic aftermath of his rise to the premiership and bluster about being happy with no deal, while Sunak cannot simply let things be, since the DUP and ERG are not happy with that either.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Rishi needs to sack Mordaunt. Her pronouncements earlier - basically that it's right for Boris to be some sort of backseat driver for government policy - were massively undermining. Rishi's own Cabinet ministers are behaving as if Rishi is just keeping the sear warm for the inevitable return of Boris. Rishi needs to show some spunk here.
Chrsito Grozev being asked not to attend the Baftas because it was deemed a security risk is rather troubling. Are investigative journalists not safe in this country?
Almost certainly not. Nor a great many others who have drawn the ire of forces that wish them ill, I expect.
Rishi needs to sack Mordaunt. Her pronouncements earlier - basically that it's right for Boris to be some sort of backseat driver for government policy - were massively undermining. Rishi's own Cabinet ministers are behaving as if Rishi is just keeping the sear warm for the inevitable return of Boris. Rishi needs to show some spunk here.
A little bit of revenge from Mordaunt, perhaps. She has long been tipped but neither Truss nor Sunak gave her a good job after all.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
What does he do with NI in the meantime? Direct rule from Westminster?
Or get Dublin to amend the GFA and allow the UUP not the DUP to be the Unionist element in the Stormont executive
I think the UUP would have to be very brave to join an Executive as a minority of Unionism in that situation. They'd risk being cast as traitors to Unionism and being wiped out at the next Assembly elections.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Frankly I am not interested in individual opinion polls and choosing the ones I like, but the utter absurdity of Johnson and his followers effectively destroying the conservative party due to their prejudices and right wing agenda and cosying up to the DUP
It’s hard to think of anyone in a western democracy more stupid than the Tories at the moment. Until you look across the pond.
Minnesota State Sen. John Jasinski (R) argues against legalizing marijuana because it will result in early retirement for drug-sniffing dogs: "The police dog discussion ... that's a big issue." https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1626283181287653376
Though that is a mind blowing lay good example of the sunk cost fallacy.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
What does he do with NI in the meantime? Direct rule from Westminster?
Sunak needs to announce the deal and ignore the Johnson cult
If they want to act against Sunak then the conservative party either needs to back Sunak or accept the loss of most of their seats
Seems like it's too late. Sunak has blinked and delayed the deal. This will only embolden his opponents.
He can't govern his party, neither could Johnson, is there anyone who could do so? If they can't govern their party they're hardly able to govern the country.
This evening it looks like the next year and a half are going to be a complete shambles as the government struggles to survive to the general election with a majority of a mere 67.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
“Become like latter day public school boys”. I don’t think Kinnock was literally accusing his Labour far left opponents of going to public schools
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
What the hell's going on with the NI deal? I was assured - absolutely assured - by at least two prominent PBers that Rishi had got 98% of what the UK wanted and the EU was on the run.
I do not think anyone said the EU was on the run but Sunak seems close to a deal with the EU and I expect he will announce it notwithstanding Johnson and his followers protestations
The only question is the timing
Should Johnson prevail he needs to turn the electoral standing of his party around. Over and above the points available from the return of the prodigal son, how does he do this? This is where Suella and 30p Lee come up with some election winning solid gold populism.
Should Johnson return, this country is going to become a lot less pleasant to live within.
What the hell's going on with the NI deal? I was assured - absolutely assured - by at least two prominent PBers that Rishi had got 98% of what the UK wanted and the EU was on the run.
Some of the ERG crowd in the past have in essence said that any deal the EU would accept is by definition one that is unacceptable for the UK, demonstrating they have no idea what a deal even is.
So even if it was 98-2 the very fact of agreement would damn Sunak in their eyes - Boris got away with doing a deal in the frenetic aftermath of his rise to the premiership and bluster about being happy with no deal, while Sunak cannot simply let things be, since the DUP and ERG are not happy with that either.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
I fear it's far worse than that. I suspect we're dealing with people who's reaction to losing a game is to throw the board in the air. If even arch eurosceptic Sean Fear has lost patience that tells me something.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
It’s hard to think of anyone in a western democracy more stupid than the Tories at the moment. Until you look across the pond.
Minnesota State Sen. John Jasinski (R) argues against legalizing marijuana because it will result in early retirement for drug-sniffing dogs: "The police dog discussion ... that's a big issue." https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1626283181287653376
Though that is a mind blowing lay good example of the sunk cost fallacy.
Less bad than Bill Clinton appealing against the idea of simplifying US income tax - if it was simple enough that normal people didn't need a tax lawyer, 100,000s of lawyers would lose their jobs.....
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
“Become like latter day public school boys”. I don’t think Kinnock was literally accusing his Labour far left opponents of going to public schools
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
Yes you are and you know you are. You know exactly what you are doing. He was sent to a state school that converted to an independent. You are twisting facts deliberately and you should be ashamed of yourself.
What the hell's going on with the NI deal? I was assured - absolutely assured - by at least two prominent PBers that Rishi had got 98% of what the UK wanted and the EU was on the run.
Some of the ERG crowd in the past have in essence said that any deal the EU would accept is by definition one that is unacceptable for the UK, demonstrating they have no idea what a deal even is.
So even if it was 98-2 the very fact of agreement would damn Sunak in their eyes - Boris got away with doing a deal in the frenetic aftermath of his rise to the premiership and bluster about being happy with no deal, while Sunak cannot simply let things be, since the DUP and ERG are not happy with that either.
Statesmanship from Sunak would mean carrying the deal with the support of Labour, if it came to it.
The country and, I imagine, large chunks of the Tory Party, are heartily sick of Boris’s wrecking antics. By staring them down, Rishi could actually come out like a proper leader.
I don’t, by the way, think it will come to this. This all smells a bit half-hearted by the ERG types, especially if all they can find for their shit-stirring quote is Duddridge.
We haven't had a stable united Conservative government since black Wednesday frankly. Cameron got lucky with the Lib Dems being so accommodating in coalition, otherwise it has been a shambles.
In fact leaving party politics aside you can probably go back to 2006 when Blair was forced to announce his resignation given things went pear shaped for Gordon Brown pretty quickly. It's a bit worrying really for those of us who found the coalition a bit of a stitch up but every other government for nearly two decades has been a mess.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
Yes you are and you know you are. You know exactly what you are doing. He was sent to a state school that converted to an independent. You are twisting facts deliberately and you should be ashamed of yourself.
It is not a lie outright of course, just a deceitful peddling of twisted facts.
Some people think HYUFD is some kind of gentlemanly poster. He is not, he is fundamentally dishonest and holds some extreme views which are best labelled “hard right”.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
Yes you are and you know you are. You know exactly what you are doing. He was sent to a state school that converted to an independent. You are twisting facts deliberately and you should be ashamed of yourself.
There is nothing wrong with going to public school, I did, they are excellent schools.
Sir Keir should not be ashamed of it, nor his earlier grammar school education either.
Indeed he still has a less posh education than Rishi and Boris at Winchester and Eton even if still a posher education than northern comprehensive educated Liz did
What I will say about HYUFD’s post is that Brexit was/is an essentially lower middle class phenomenon.
It’a a project for the never-weres and and never-will-bes.
I remember a supposed to be cutting joke after the referendum by a remainer suggesting that leave meant going back to the world of 1973 and I think quite a lot of leavers thought 'yeah we'd quite like that.'
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidates. You concede?
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
Yes you are and you know you are. You know exactly what you are doing. He was sent to a state school that converted to an independent. You are twisting facts deliberately and you should be ashamed of yourself.
There is nothing wrong with going to public school, I did, they are excellent schools.
Sir Keir should not be ashamed of it, nor his earlier grammar school education either.
Indeed he still has a less posh education than Rishi and Boris at Winchester and Eton even if still a posher education than northern comprehensive educated Liz did
I never said there was, so why do you have to resort to lies and twisting the truth. How do you think that makes you or other Tories look? You are smearing the reputation of other Tories by being deliberately deceitful.
I am not a fan of Starmer, but I'm not going to lie about him. Why do you?
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidate. You concede?
We haven't had a stable united Conservative government since black Wednesday frankly. Cameron got lucky with the Lib Dems being so accommodating in coalition, otherwise it has been a shambles.
In fact leaving party politics aside you can probably go back to 2006 when Blair was forced to announce his resignation given things went pear shaped for Gordon Brown pretty quickly. It's a bit worrying really for those of us who found the coalition a bit of a stitch up but every other government for nearly two decades has been a mess.
That's an interesting observation.
It seems like the Eurosceptics/Brexiters have spent so many decades fighting internal Tory party civil wars over Europe that they can't give it up even after we've left the EU. Instead of getting on with the job of running the country, finding ways to make it better, they're stuck in established ways of thinking and can't adjust to the reality of having won. It's maddening.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
Yes you are and you know you are. You know exactly what you are doing. He was sent to a state school that converted to an independent. You are twisting facts deliberately and you should be ashamed of yourself.
There is nothing wrong with going to public school, I did, they are excellent schools.
Sir Keir should not be ashamed of it, nor his earlier grammar school education either.
Indeed he still has a less posh education than Rishi and Boris at Winchester and Eton even if still a posher education than northern comprehensive educated Liz did
I'm not sure I'd agree with that although it's a rather silly argument. Starmer's school was a state that became a private school just before he left. Truss's school was a comprehensive in a very leafy area, much as she liked to claim otherwise. Was it posher than Starmer's school? I don't know and can't say I care either though Truss being the daughter of a professor is certainly less ordinary than son of a toolmaker Keir.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
I think they ought to be expelled. These people are the scorpion in the fable of the scorpion and the frog. They enjoy causing harm to this country just because it’s in their nature to do so.
This is the trouble with Euroscepticism and Brexit. We know what happens with impossible promises. You start with far-fetched resolutions. They are then pickled into a rigid dogma, a code, and you go through the years sticking to that, out-dated, mis-placed, irrelevant to the real needs, and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Tory government – a Tory government - scuttling around the UK economy handing out fuck you notices to its own multinational businesses.
Raising corporation tax to 25% is indeed a massive fuck you notice to multinational businesses - I am glad you've noticed.
I logged in basically to disagree with best screenplay bafta for Banshees. Cinematography great, much of the acting superb. But the screenplay is rubbish. unNaturalistic. Slow. And ultimately pointless. It’s trying to be Waiting For Godot or even Under Milkwood. But ultimately it is nothing at all. It says nothing at all, worse it carries not an ounce of poignancy - is neither sad, engaging or funny.
Statesmanship from Sunak would mean carrying the deal with the support of Labour, if it came to it.
The country and, I imagine, large chunks of the Tory Party, are heartily sick of Boris’s wrecking antics. By staring them down, Rishi could actually come out like a proper leader.
I don’t, by the way, think it will come to this. This all smells a bit half-hearted by the ERG types, especially if all they can find for their shit-stirring quote is Duddridge.
What IS the deal? It seems a bit early to be 'pausing it' due to some friendly advice from Bojo delivered by a third party, when as yet we have no idea what this deal consists of. If it's a great deal, there should be no difficulty selling it to Tory MPs. They all want this issue to be dealt with - a rare success for the Sunak Government would be widely welcomed. Grow some balls and unveil the deal.
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidate. You concede?
Excellent post Moon
HY is doing his best to spin current polling, “on the built in swingback poll and hoping there’s no tactical attack we get 175 seats, a dozen better than 1997, so rejoice at that news”.
what’s he supposed to do, just give up? But where is HY when Mad Nad hit the nail on the head. When they moved against Boris they gambled so much on a Sunak bounce, which till now hasn’t happened.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Another quote from that famous Kinnock conference speech:
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
Except of the ERG big hitters, Francois, IDS, Patel, Baker, Duddridge, Badenoch, David Davis and Raab are all state educated. Only Bill Cash, Braverman, Bernard Jenkin and John Redwood and Boris went to public school and Redwood's was only a minor public school.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
Starmer went to a state school as you well know. It is hardly his fault it converted to an independent when he was there and he was then state funded.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
It wasn't lying, Reigate Grammar is an HMC school and was an independent school before Starmer left it
Yes you are and you know you are. You know exactly what you are doing. He was sent to a state school that converted to an independent. You are twisting facts deliberately and you should be ashamed of yourself.
There is nothing wrong with going to public school, I did, they are excellent schools.
Sir Keir should not be ashamed of it, nor his earlier grammar school education either.
Indeed he still has a less posh education than Rishi and Boris at Winchester and Eton even if still a posher education than northern comprehensive educated Liz did
I'm not sure I'd agree with that although it's a rather silly argument. Starmer's school was a state that became a private school just before he left. Truss's school was a comprehensive in a very leafy area, much as she liked to claim otherwise. Was it posher than Starmer's school? I don't know and can't say I care either though Truss being the daughter of a professor is certainly less ordinary than son of a toolmaker Keir.
Of course it was, even before it went independent Starmer's school was a selective grammar school not a comprehensive like Truss attended. Even if Truss' was not a sink school either
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidates. You concede?
Nope. On the other side if Sunak squeezes DKs and RefUK he gets well above 175. He also will get less tactical votes against him than Boris and Truss did
There is nothing wrong with going to public school, I did, they are excellent schools.
Sir Keir should not be ashamed of it, nor his earlier grammar school education either.
Indeed he still has a less posh education than Rishi and Boris at Winchester and Eton even if still a posher education than northern comprehensive educated Liz did
I'm not sure I'd agree with that although it's a rather silly argument. Starmer's school was a state that became a private school just before he left. Truss's school was a comprehensive in a very leafy area, much as she liked to claim otherwise. Was it posher than Starmer's school? I don't know and can't say I care either though Truss being the daughter of a professor is certainly less ordinary than son of a toolmaker Keir.
Most kids don't get a choice where their parents send them to school, so it's inappropriate to praise/blame/admire/scorn them for it anyway. The only relevant point is that some types of school provide less experience of wider society, so people who go to them have work to do in order to show that they understand others. IMO Johnson had a reasonable stab at that, while Osborne really didn't bother, but anyway few people seem to feel that Starmer is a closeted elitist - he does well on the "underatands people like me" polling.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidates. You concede?
Nope. On the other side if Sunak squeezes DKs and RefUK he gets well above 175. He also will get less tactical votes against him than Boris and Truss did
What makes you think RefUK remotely like you, and will end up voting for you and Sunak. The building RefUK vote will be some of the biggest Tory government haters in the land right now and some of the most certain to vote - they voted for this government, incompetence, backstabbing sleaze lies and all, they enabled it, they can’t wait to get in the polling station and cleanse themselves. You swallowed them up in 2019, they know there is only one way to free themselves from the belly of that beast.
You saying no to any amount of tactical voting, vote lending, anywhere, against the Tory candidate can reduce that 175?
And the don’t knows, with all these options to break for, each vote for any of one those other options needs to be matched with a Tory vote just for you to stand still. And just how many d/k are you talking about hoovering considering 100% of them voting ain’t remotely going to happen.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidates. You concede?
Nope. On the other side if Sunak squeezes DKs and RefUK he gets well above 175. He also will get less tactical votes against him than Boris and Truss did
What happens if Johnson's premiership is exhumed? RefUK, OK fine, but DKs? They could swing every which way.
I logged in basically to disagree with best screenplay bafta for Banshees. Cinematography great, much of the acting superb. But the screenplay is rubbish. unNaturalistic. Slow. And ultimately pointless. It’s trying to be Waiting For Godot or even Under Milkwood. But ultimately it is nothing at all. It says nothing at all, worse it carries not an ounce of poignancy - is neither sad, engaging or funny.
I’m calling it out as a rubbish screenplay.
Edit. Spoiler Alert.
It deserves all the acting awards it gets. Barry Keoghan’s acting stands out in everything I have seen him in, Green Knight, Chernobyl come quickly to mind. In fact the best part of Banshees is when he kills himself after his romantic approach fails - very reminiscent of Roeg’s Walkabout.
Would cry* if Sunak made the NI deal a confidence matter and expelled all who didn't vote for it. Karma.
* With laughter and joy of course.
He won't, he certainly doesn't want 100 Tory MPs going to a new Boris party under FPTP and split his vote.
He will just abandon the NI deal if he can't get it passed by most of his MPs and the DUP and leave Starmer to deal with it as the likely next PM
Why? It worked for BoJo.
Johnson got through the current deal, Sunak is trying for a softer deal he cannot sell to the ERG to remove the Irish Sea border.
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
I haven't been posting much recently but I utterly despair at Johnson and his toxic band of followers who are leading the conservative party to oblivion
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Frankly it’s hard for anyone who respects Britain’s democracy to witness Johnson and the ERG replicate the worst excesses of militant Labour in this way. But I wonder if, as with Corbyn, the only path to redemption is for him to regain the premiership then lose catastrophically in a general election.
The way it is going the next election is already lost as are a whole bundle of right wing seats including the toxic Johnson
Unfortunately, looking at the battleground, a lot of the fruitier members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party have got very safe seats indeed. Once the selections are in place, it will be interesting to see where the ideological centre of a Conservative party with 50/100/150/200 seats is likely to be.
Francois, Bill Cash, Braverman, Priti Patel, Badenoch, Duddridge all have safe seats.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
The way things are going no conservative will have a safe seat and deservedly so
Even if the Conservatives only had less than 100 MPs, Francois, Priti Patel, Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and Bill Cash would hold their seats
Only 5 left then
On last night's Opinium 175 Tory MPs would hold their seats, slightly more than in 1997
Opinium factor in swingback, so 28 is low for swingback added. Likely doesn’t factor in tactical voting, that could take dozens more seats off 175 made up simply on no tactical attack on Tory candidates. You concede?
Nope. On the other side if Sunak squeezes DKs and RefUK he gets well above 175. He also will get less tactical votes against him than Boris and Truss did
What happens if Johnson's premiership is exhumed? RefUK, OK fine, but DKs? They could swing every which way.
If Boris returns this side of the election they get a better result than under Sunak.
It’s difficult for Boris haters to come out and admit that truth. He wasn’t actually moved against by the Tory herd, in normal lateral thinking positions you let a three year, most of which lost to covid, landslide winning PM more time mid term to be the comeback kid, but problem was they brainwashed themselves into believing they would get a bounce back to majority defending under Rishi Sunak. But of anything, the slicker smoother Rishi is it reminds voters of everything they hate about these Tory years. Boris makes voters forget about austerity and 13 wasted years, Rishi constantly reminds them of it.
Comments
Is that Jack Nicholson? Not exactly an obvious conservative figure of the time.
So they know very well he would behave in the same self destructive manner, and force his MPs to defend him in the indefensible which drove them against him in the first place. That's the logic of the 'for all his faults' people. And that's meant to be a good thing?
While the DUP just want the current deal too but for NI as well.
As I said earlier only a PM Starmer could get a softer Brexit deal through the Commons with Labour having most seats, PM Sunak can't. The ERG and DUP would vote it down
One final thought: the only thing more ridiculous than English Nationalist Tories pretending to care about Northern I reland is the DUP believing them.
However obviously the EU and Dublin would never agree any new deal on those terms
It is so hard for a one nation conservative like myself to witness this public act of hari kari but the consolation will be the decimation of Johnson and his idiotic tribal followers at GE 24
Except that the recent decease of the groundhog is not a good omen.
Anyway, night all. I have a nice book on battleships to read in bed.
Quite so.
If Sunak cannot agree this deal it will finish the conservative party for my lifetime ( though at 79 now sure how long that might be)
It was a political kamikaze, perhaps. A shame she didn't resign on the spot for full melodramatic effect (that's how our resident thriller writer would've crafted it).
Given the choice they probably would go back and not oust Boris if they could.
Trouble is that Rishi (can we start calling him Rishi Washy?) also needs to win with Conservative MPs... the same problem May had. And a lot of them are headbangers.
The Tories need to be destroyed at that election . Anyone voting Tory should seek help as they are clearly insane !
Ron Paul is saying that the best way to stop war is to not send people to war, at a rally where people are waving Russian flags.
Kinda seems more like A Minor Kerfuffle Against the War Machine judging by the turnout. Looks like there's more speakers than attendees.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1627415695951634434?cxt=HHwWhIC9sf_83pUtAAAA
If they want to act against Sunak then the conservative party either needs to back Sunak or accept the loss of most of their seats
But I know you wouldn't use such language.
On that basis, almost every losing candidate (in the US or the UK) only lost by the narrowest of margins.
Rees Mogg's is a bit more marginal but even his is not even in the top 100 Labour target seats.
Only IDS and Steve Baker from the ERG hard right are likely to lose their seats, though Boris and Redwood are also at risk
I have never used bad language in my posts as I consider it unnecessary to demonstrate my point
It’s time for the Tories to call an election and go. This cannot continue
The only question is the timing
Wtf is wrong with these people .
“Comrades, it seems to me lately that some of our number become like latter-day public school-boys. It seems it matters not whether you won or lost, but how you played the game.”
That, I think, sums up a particular tendency within the current Tory party.
So even if it was 98-2 the very fact of agreement would damn Sunak in their eyes - Boris got away with doing a deal in the frenetic aftermath of his rise to the premiership and bluster about being happy with no deal, while Sunak cannot simply let things be, since the DUP and ERG are not happy with that either.
Last night's polls already look out of date.
Unfortunately you’re dealing with the DUP who want any excuse to avoid going back to Stormont unless they have the FM role .
Then you have the ERG who still not content with Brexit won’t be happy until the Channel tunnel is blown up and the UK declares war on France .
Added to that you have the most despicable antics from Johnson who would happily welcome the NI troubles back as long as he could return to no 10.
56% Remain
44% Leave
#justsayin'
Until you look across the pond.
Minnesota State Sen. John Jasinski (R) argues against legalizing marijuana because it will result in early retirement for drug-sniffing dogs: "The police dog discussion ... that's a big issue."
https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1626283181287653376
Though that is a mind blowing lay good example of the sunk cost fallacy.
By contrast PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt both went to major public schools and Starmer and Davey went to HMC public schools too
He can't govern his party, neither could Johnson, is there anyone who could do so? If they can't govern their party they're hardly able to govern the country.
This evening it looks like the next year and a half are going to be a complete shambles as the government struggles to survive to the general election with a majority of a mere 67.
I am no fan of Starmer, but I won't resort to lying to make a petty point.
Should Johnson return, this country is going to become a lot less pleasant to live within.
At least dogs....
Look at what Blair achieved with a majority of only 66. This is pathetic.
The country and, I imagine, large chunks of the Tory Party, are heartily sick of Boris’s wrecking antics. By staring them down, Rishi could actually come out like a proper leader.
I don’t, by the way, think it will come to this.
This all smells a bit half-hearted by the ERG types, especially if all they can find for their shit-stirring quote is Duddridge.
In fact leaving party politics aside you can probably go back to 2006 when Blair was forced to announce his resignation given things went pear shaped for Gordon Brown pretty quickly. It's a bit worrying really for those of us who found the coalition a bit of a stitch up but every other government for nearly two decades has been a mess.
Some people think HYUFD is some kind of gentlemanly poster. He is not, he is fundamentally dishonest and holds some extreme views which are best labelled “hard right”.
Sir Keir should not be ashamed of it, nor his earlier grammar school education either.
Indeed he still has a less posh education than Rishi and Boris at Winchester and Eton even if still a posher education than northern comprehensive educated Liz did
It’a a project for the never-weres and and never-will-bes.
The upper middle class voted Remain.
That was even the case accounting for age, over 65 graduates voted Remain and under 30s with only GCSES or no qualifications voted Leave
I am not a fan of Starmer, but I'm not going to lie about him. Why do you?
It seems like the Eurosceptics/Brexiters have spent so many decades fighting internal Tory party civil wars over Europe that they can't give it up even after we've left the EU. Instead of getting on with the job of running the country, finding ways to make it better, they're stuck in established ways of thinking and can't adjust to the reality of having won. It's maddening.
I logged in basically to disagree with best screenplay bafta for Banshees. Cinematography great, much of the acting superb. But the screenplay is rubbish. unNaturalistic. Slow. And ultimately pointless. It’s trying to be Waiting For Godot or even Under Milkwood. But ultimately it is nothing at all. It says nothing at all, worse it carries not an ounce of poignancy - is neither sad, engaging or funny.
I’m calling it out as a rubbish screenplay.
what’s he supposed to do, just give up? But where is HY when Mad Nad hit the nail on the head. When they moved against Boris they gambled so much on a Sunak bounce, which till now hasn’t happened.
above 175. He also will get less tactical votes against him than Boris and Truss did
You saying no to any amount of tactical voting, vote lending, anywhere, against the Tory candidate can reduce that 175?
And the don’t knows, with all these options to break for, each vote for any of one those other options needs to be matched with a Tory vote just for you to stand still. And just how many d/k are you talking about hoovering considering 100% of them voting ain’t remotely going to happen.
It deserves all the acting awards it gets. Barry Keoghan’s acting stands out in everything I have seen him in, Green Knight, Chernobyl come quickly to mind. In fact the best part of Banshees is when he kills himself after his romantic approach fails - very reminiscent of Roeg’s Walkabout.
It’s difficult for Boris haters to come out and admit that truth. He wasn’t actually moved against by the Tory herd, in normal lateral thinking positions you let a three year, most of which lost to covid, landslide winning PM more time mid term to be the comeback kid, but problem was they brainwashed themselves into believing they would get a bounce back to majority defending under Rishi Sunak. But of anything, the slicker smoother Rishi is it reminds voters of everything they hate about these Tory years. Boris makes voters forget about austerity and 13 wasted years, Rishi constantly reminds them of it.