Options
It’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which Starmer doesn’t become PM – politicalbetting.com
It’s hard to envisage the circumstances in which Starmer doesn’t become PM – politicalbetting.com
I have been trying to envisage the electoral under which Starmer doesn’t become PM.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Both the Times and the Telegraph refer to “the Queen” rather than “the Queen Consort” on their front pages.
Not good.
If this is the new official style, it’s a clumsy move by Charles.
Probably with a small overall majority maybe around 30?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6Fuxkinhug
What goes around comes around!
GN all 👍
I heard Jonathan Dimbleby say on Newsnight that the Chairman of the BBC would have to resign. It'll take a long time for Johnson's poison to dissipate from our body politic
I can tell you exactly why you are wrong, I can easily prove it to you. “But now Brexit has been delivered”
Are you saying there will never be votes in House of Commons where Tory rebels join Labour in changes to the Johnson Frost Brexit deal? You are saying never? That’s where I say you have it wrong.
And the proof comes from putting you on the spot. Which one are you?
Brexit means not being subject to EU law any more, so any brexit deal with even a teeny bit of a role for EU law is a sell out,
versus,
the best Brexit deal for UK economy and business can include some small EU legal involvement only over very limited areas of the deal.
Which one are you, you have to be one or the other? Are you with Gove and the rebels voting with Starmer (like Jenkins and crew 1973) or punching and spitting at the sell out traitors (like the Irish Civil War?)
Labour will have enough problems governing with a tiny majority, no money to spend and the Unions in an increasingly hostile and militant mood to do much about Brexit...
It could be more like 57 seats under the new boundaries, which are due to be confirmed later this year.
Actually, to counter my own argument, one of the reasons why the West haven’t turned it into a shooting match till now, could be based on if there’s any grain of truth with the laughing Chinese claiming “but you’ve been doing this yourself for years!”
Despite what the current polls are showing talk of Labour landslides and big majorities is for the birds IMO but I could be wrong.
The referendum result was delivered after the 2019 Con landslide after the outrage of the 2017-19 parliament trying to subvert democracy. What happens after that with Britain's future relationship with the EU remains to be seen (at the outset, in 2016, I'd have been happy with "Norway" so that should tell you what I think)
But if you're expecting Brexit to split the Tories and keep them out of power/Labour in power "forever" I think you're gonna be disappointed.
Just my opinion. Could be wrong.
It seems pretty far fetched that he'd do that while lurching from crisis to crisis with virtually no majority but who knows?
If we end up like Norway I wouldn't mind personally... I just can't see it happening (not in the next Parliament anyway)
But a Tory Brexit split could keep them in there for eighteen years (there’s precedent) whilst one of the two former Conservative Party groupings devours the other.
It’s interesting coy response I’m getting to the “LuckyMan” question. ‘Brexits done. All in the past now. No threat to the Tories. I don’t need to answer your silly forced question.”
The day shall come. Why do I have the suspicion most PB Tory Brexiteers will come out for Gove and the rebels, and applaud them into the Labour Lobby? 🤔
The exit poll was clear that the Tories were on the cusp of being the largest party (if not having an overall majority) while Labour was a long way behind with the Lib-Dems facing meltdown and Labour facing total oblivion to the SNP in Scotland.
So at 10pm the writing was on the Edstone lol.
That said, I get what you're saying. We're a long way from the election and a lot can happen. Maybe we'll have an alien invasion... that would probably be regarded as "events dear boy" and change the narrative hahahaha!
Night PB
One answer to the implied question in the header is if the Tories keep their majority. They do that by bigging up immigration. If necessary they can ditch no.4 in a row of their own leaders. The last one who went of his own accord was David Cameron. Indeed. Or WW3. Or an economic catastrophe. Anyone who lumps on the favourite when things are so volatile is taking a bigger risk than they think.
It saw government debt drop from around 50% of GDP to under 40%.
1 A corollary of "It's hard to see the circumstances in which Starmer doesn't become PM" is "It's hard to see the circumstances in which Rayner doesn't become Deputy PM".
2 Would Starmer offer Sturgeon IndyRef2 for a coalition? My guess is "No" (not least because it will vindicate the attack lines the Tories will surely wheel out increasingly over the next 23 months). If Labour can't patch a majority together -- and without the SNP that's entirely feasible -- then wouldn't Sunak form a minority administration (if the Tories had most seats and most votes it would be hard to justify a Starmer minority administration over a Sunak one).
I guess my point it that the SNP will feel far less obliged to act in the (UK's) national interest than the 2010 Lib Dems did. The Lib Dems were desperate for power, and Cameron offered them that. The SNP will be desperate for a referendum, but that may not be on the table. And in those circumstances, I *can* see Starmer not getting the keys to No. 10.
I'm not a betting man (I married a Methodist) but 80% therefore seems about right to me.
It's going to be 1992 all over again so I guess we'll never know how bad Starmer would have been anyway.
(Thank the Lord that we didn't have to suffer that Coalition of Chaos under Ed Miliband, and had Strong and Steady Tory governments instead!)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/13/biden-ufo-shot-down-michigan-flying-objects
What is ‘sky trash’ and is it linked to the mystery objects shot down by US?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/14/what-is-sky-trash-and-is-it-linked-to-the-mystery-objects-shot-down-by-us
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/13/what-exactly-was-michael-gove-doing-at-a-secret-brexit-summit
...Gove is said to still believe the Conservatives have a chance at the next election and has stressed to colleagues that delivering on housing and levelling up will be two key deciders – in “red wall” seats that voted Tory for the first time and in winning over voters under 50, for whom housing is a major issue.
He is stymied hugely by the nimbys in his own party, to whom the government caved over housing targets – but his current focus is the quality of housing stock, including building safety and the state of social housing.
Last week, he was offered the opportunity in the mini-reshuffle to move to the helm of the new science department, but opted to stay at the DLUHC. If Gove’s optimism is misplaced, and he has just two years left in government, perhaps it is easier to secure a personal legacy with bricks and mortar than gene editing or AI.
Recent comment on Talk (No fans of Labour) do point out they used to send more people back.
With a small majority he'll do the obvious. Steady the ship and call another election. Then on a wave of optimism and hope gain a huge majority with carte blanche to re-tie the knot with Europe.....
War with Russia.
Labour losing the election.
Aliens taking control of the world.
Global ebola pandemic.
That kind of thing.
Sometimes I think you guys really lack imagination.
…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5pr0MUGn9k
TL:DW; the best would be Gripen and Meteor.
“Labour losing the election” isn’t a very interesting scenario.
And it would take more than an ebola outbreak to stop him - unless he were a victim.
Michigan State: Three killed in shooting at university
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64632879
Apart from anything else Starmer has said very little about what he intends to do, so not really anything to be caught out lying over.
Sending a handful of planes will accomplish nothing, if they’re quickly rendered unserviceable or attacked by friendly forces. It’s a massive task, to properly integrate new systems into the Ukranian military.
One might actually say that Starmer’s chances got a little bit better with the recent Scotland polls. He’s not going to get a majority without a couple of dozen gains north of the border.
TRANS
The electrical kit. So many shorts you'd think you were on a beach in Bermuda.
The cars. Build quality was just embarrassing.
True, our politicians weren't as bad, and although the economy was in a mess it wasn't as great a mess as it is now. But in other ways...
I also suspect that, given the timescales involved in training the Ukranians, Zelensky is secretly hoping for some sort of a covert NATO fighter mission in the shorter term - with Western ‘volunteers’ sent into Ukraine wearing blue and yellow badges. Not sure there’s the political appetite for such obvious poking of the bear just yet, but if it gets to the point where the brass hats think they can get away with it…
But agreed about the old Soviet stuff.
https://news.sky.com/story/uks-ability-to-train-fast-jet-pilots-in-crisis-due-to-faulty-aircraft-and-instructors-shortage-leaked-documents-suggest-12666275
Rather like the sale of armed forces housing, it looks very much like another cocked up episode of privatisation.
Their own supporters would be very happy to see a country with no immigrants, with the "just drown them" rhetoric always simmering away.
Problem is that as they refuse to engage with solutions, drowning them is basically all they have left and the Royal Navy refused last time it was proposed.
Dead migrants may excite a few, but repulses anyone who isn't a total stard. The newspaper front pages with the dead toddler face down on the beach in Greece horrified people - if we had the same on the beach at Hythe as a result of government policy there would be absolute outrage. Doubly so from the stards who were demanding exactly this kind of policy.
There is No Way to stop the boats because the Tories refuse to co-operate internationally. And the libertarian wing of the party looks at the ever growing labour shortage, and the migrants brought in and housed in misery not allowed to work and thinks "exploitable labour pool". All Starmer has to do to win on this subject is propose what the Tories can't do - control our borders.
My new favorite thing - Bing's new ChatGPT bot argues with a user, gaslights them about the current year being 2022, says their phone might have a virus, and says "You have not been a good user"
Why? Because the person asked where Avatar 2 is showing nearby
https://mobile.twitter.com/MovingToTheSun/status/1625156575202537474
Google search chief warns AI chatbots can give 'convincing but completely fictitious' answers.
Google felt the "urgency" to release its chatbot Bard to the public
https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-boss-warns-ai-can-give-fictitious-answers-report-2023-2
https://www.techrepublic.com/article/why-microsofts-tay-ai-bot-went-wrong/
The difference is that Starmer has no far not shown any signs of being Blair. But that may not make a difference. I know you lean Tory from your expat home, but here on the ground the general sense of disgust in a government is nothing I have ever experienced. By the time the 1997 election came around people genuinely wanted the hope Blair was selling. I doubt Starmer will find the same mega optimism. But people also wanted shut of the Tories and punish voted them out of the way.
Once that mindset is embedded - and it truly is - voters will do all kinds of impossible. As frankly they did to Corbyn in 2019. That would have been a Thatcher-scale majority had Farage not deployed wrecking tactics. So don't tell me Labour can't win seats x and y, because the Tories won their own list of impossibles just over 3 years ago.
But the 70s... shudder. Mostly.
Ah. I am channelling @leon this morning
https://status.vanillaforums.com/
IMO the logistics chain is why it should be Gripen.
But that may need the Sweden NATO Entry logjam to be cleared first, which requires Turkey to shift, with elections due in a couple of months.
Was it not an earthquake that partly destabilised Abdullah Gul the last President of Turkey back in 2014?
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2023/02/scottish-independence-gender-recognition-de-facto-referendum-my-latest-polling-from-scotland/
The upshot seems to be that Nicola has well and truly shat the bed!
The short version is, there are three kinds of Queen (regnant, consort and dowager) but only one kind of King.