Theuniondivvie said:

geoffw said:

JosiasJessop said:

Allegedly Ukraine's now getting the GLSDB, a munition with 150km range.

https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1621567138338152450

GLSDB is quite an interesting technology: put a bog-standard guided small diameter bomb on top of a cheapish and plentiful MLRS rocket. Half the range of the ATACMS, but allegedly much, much cheaper.

https://www.saab.com/products/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-glsdb

Beginning to think that Kenny Everett had the answer.

Stay in the closet as long as possible while being openly Tory?

That just sounds so much the wrong way around, even to me.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Raab is buggered. Sunak's a tosser.

The heads of all three government departments run by Dominic Raab warned him about his treatment of officials.

An inquiry into bullying has been told that senior civil servants repeatedly urged the deputy prime minister over four years to moderate the way he dealt with his staff.

The permanent secretaries at the Department for Exiting the European Union, the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Justice are said to have raised informal concerns with Raab about the effect his behaviour was having on junior civil servants.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-raab-was-urged-to-change-bullying-behaviour-by-three-top-officials-2tcnm6zvp

You fawned over Cameron but never lose an opportunity to take a swipe at Sunak. You're entitled to your opinion I suppose.

In his Atlas of North American History, Colin McEvedy gives this estimate for 1492: "The world that Columbus opened up to European exploitation contained some 12 to 15 million "Indians". About half of them lived to the south of the area shown on the map [North America, except for the far north] and about 100,000, mostly Eskimo, to the north of it, in Alaska and the northern parts of Canada." (p. 22)

(In the Introduction, McEvedy somewhat testily concedes that he might be off by a factor of 2, but considers claims of far higher populations absurd.)

I don't know of any simple way to estimate the current "Indian" population in the US. Officially it is more than 2 million, but there has been so much mixing over the centuries that it is hard to say just how accurate that is. (For instance, many Mexican-Americans are of mixed race, or even pure "Indian", but would cal themselve "Hispanic" on the census form.

Inuit aren't in any way First Nations people.
They are completely separate.

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

I see my favourite failed think tank operator is demonstrating yet again that he has difficulty wrestling with facts:

'Experts' for months
- Russia forces about to collapse
- Russia about to run out of weapons
- Russia economy imploding
- China about to throw Russia overboard
- I'm moving to Mastodon cos Elon suggested diplomacy

They're ~ as good as 'behavioural science'

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1621433052218941440

In fact, duh, most people including most experts were saying the opposite for months. The Ukrainian resilience and skill has caught pretty much everyone by surprise. Especially the Russian army but also lots of experts.

In fairness there has been a fair bit of Russia having “cumulated” and being on the point of collapse, very little of which has been borne out.

I have been surprised at their ability to throw more and more troops into the meat grinder without consequence but they've advanced about as far as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping. Hopefully longer range artillery will help Ukraine. The opportunities are very much on their side, if the west wants to support them.

FrankBooth said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

I see my favourite failed think tank operator is demonstrating yet again that he has difficulty wrestling with facts:

'Experts' for months
- Russia forces about to collapse
- Russia about to run out of weapons
- Russia economy imploding
- China about to throw Russia overboard
- I'm moving to Mastodon cos Elon suggested diplomacy

They're ~ as good as 'behavioural science'

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1621433052218941440

In fact, duh, most people including most experts were saying the opposite for months. The Ukrainian resilience and skill has caught pretty much everyone by surprise. Especially the Russian army but also lots of experts.

In fairness there has been a fair bit of Russia having “cumulated” and being on the point of collapse, very little of which has been borne out.

I have been surprised at their ability to throw more and more troops into the meat grinder without consequence but they've advanced about as far as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping. Hopefully longer range artillery will help Ukraine. The opportunities are very much on their side, if the west wants to support them.

That's really unfair on ants.
They can travel long distances with huge amounts of goods.
Not sure if they ever suffer from asthma.

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

I see my favourite failed think tank operator is demonstrating yet again that he has difficulty wrestling with facts:

'Experts' for months
- Russia forces about to collapse
- Russia about to run out of weapons
- Russia economy imploding
- China about to throw Russia overboard
- I'm moving to Mastodon cos Elon suggested diplomacy

They're ~ as good as 'behavioural science'

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1621433052218941440

In fact, duh, most people including most experts were saying the opposite for months. The Ukrainian resilience and skill has caught pretty much everyone by surprise. Especially the Russian army but also lots of experts.

In fairness there has been a fair bit of Russia having “cumulated” and being on the point of collapse, very little of which has been borne out.

Let's hope they have cumulated to the point of culmination.

FrankBooth said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

I see my favourite failed think tank operator is demonstrating yet again that he has difficulty wrestling with facts:

'Experts' for months
- Russia forces about to collapse
- Russia about to run out of weapons
- Russia economy imploding
- China about to throw Russia overboard
- I'm moving to Mastodon cos Elon suggested diplomacy

They're ~ as good as 'behavioural science'

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1621433052218941440

In fact, duh, most people including most experts were saying the opposite for months. The Ukrainian resilience and skill has caught pretty much everyone by surprise. Especially the Russian army but also lots of experts.

In fairness there has been a fair bit of Russia having “cumulated” and being on the point of collapse, very little of which has been borne out.

I have been surprised at their ability to throw more and more troops into the meat grinder without consequence but they've advanced about as far as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping. Hopefully longer range artillery will help Ukraine. The opportunities are very much on their side, if the west wants to support them.

But despite the overconfidence we saw after Ukraine’s victories in the autumn they are grinding forward and the Ukrainians are also losing a lot of men, if not nearly so many.

I see the BBC have now got an 'identity correspondent'. Where are the decent satirists when you need them?

DavidL said:

turbotubbs said:

Scott_xP said:

@AllieHBNews: Saturday’s INDEPENDENT Digital: “Now top comedian says Raab ‘can’t tell Asians apart’ “ #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1621630889401655334/photo/1

Not convinced Amish Kumar rates as ‘Top comedian’.

Journalise. I and most of my pals live in fear of being a “top lawyer “ by doing something particularly stupid.

Nothing will ever top being called a 'gay olympic fencer'.

@DavidGauke: RT @Barristerblog: "Sunak lacks the political strength to repudiate the Johnsonian position or the shamelessness to replicate it."
Shr… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621638520317042691

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Scott_xP said:

@Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

📈21pt Labour Lead

🌹Lab 47 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-3)
🔶LD 9 (=)
➡️Reform 6 (+1)
🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621543361776689152

Another poll showing Tories going DOWN.

These are dire ratings, Sunak should have been able to get them into the 30s. At this rate he's going down back towards Truss - truly we are at the end.

If he squeezes the 6% RefUK rating they will be back the 30s

You might be right but I could make an equally strong case that a good chunk of the RefUK voters are Johnson/Brexit diehards who will simply sit out the next GE if Sunak is leading the Tories. On top of their 47% I also think Labour has a good chance of squeezing the 13% Green/Lib Dem vote, particularly in Con-Lab seats.

Absolutely Olly. The more corrupt and useless the Tory’s are revealed to be the one squeezed they might be they by reform one side Lib Dems on other. If there was ever a curcumstance for 7 or 8% of the right to protest against an embarrassing let down of a corrupt party without fear of a Labour government, it’s this one.

2 other things. HY saying most that reform is Tory come GE is absolutely no different than Nick Palmer telling me today most that Green Wall in Bristols will vote Labour come election regardless of Greens targetting the seats. It’s the same dismissive air isn’t it.

And of course, HY is a Tory bigwig in local politics, perhaps he can put us right with canvassing stories, where they said Corruption, small boat invasion, tax, Truss, weak shit leader and more corruption, bugger off we are voting reform now, yet he talked them round and won them over?

I think Nick is right re Bristol. Time and time again we see Lib Dems performing very strongly in a local area only to see it fail to repeat at GE's.

Green voters will often vote their preference in seats where Labour is strong and likely to win anyway but vote tactically in seats where the Tories might win. Anyway, apologies for my comments earlier, I was probably too harsh on you but I still can't see any evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls!

There is no evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls, and there is no evidence that I ever said there was.

I don’t think it will be entirely fair to dismiss HY getting most the reform on the big day, but agree with Nick Labour will get most the green. For one thing, many of those greens could be now momentum corbynites like BJO for example, for another in some select areas the Greens really have moved the dial since the last general election, they will have a lot of foot soldiers swarming Bristol targetting those constituency’s.

This you? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4293719#Comment_4293719

Ha! That’s not remotely saying Labours whole polling has collapsed, it’s saying a Couple of polls collapsed by -3 and -4 this week. 🤷‍♀️ I actually stated COUPLE and gave precise figures for the two - how on earth to you claim “moon rabbit said Labours votes has collapsed” from that? If your playing fair. Maybe drop instead of collapse, but even then, no I’m obviously not saying labours overall vote isn’t collapsing or going anywhere in a hurry.

The one that started Horse off on my case weeks ago was admittedly far closer to me saying Labours vote has collapsed, because I said Labour polling bounce has collapsed, and quite quickly actually, and kept posting the graph that to me clearly shows it’s quickly halved.

from the surge Truss gave them as her budget proved unpopular, it has quickly collapsed about half, and continues to stay there at that level.

So, no, not even that claim can be misconstrued. And you are cherry picking my posts, as taken as a sequence I’m quite the opposite from saying Labours polling in trouble. Would you like me to link to ALL those from today?

Not letting you get away with it.

This is the labours bounce halved, as COLLAPSED by half, which is true, but Horse and others won’t admit .

DavidL said:

FrankBooth said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

I see my favourite failed think tank operator is demonstrating yet again that he has difficulty wrestling with facts:

'Experts' for months
- Russia forces about to collapse
- Russia about to run out of weapons
- Russia economy imploding
- China about to throw Russia overboard
- I'm moving to Mastodon cos Elon suggested diplomacy

They're ~ as good as 'behavioural science'

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1621433052218941440

In fact, duh, most people including most experts were saying the opposite for months. The Ukrainian resilience and skill has caught pretty much everyone by surprise. Especially the Russian army but also lots of experts.

In fairness there has been a fair bit of Russia having “cumulated” and being on the point of collapse, very little of which has been borne out.

I have been surprised at their ability to throw more and more troops into the meat grinder without consequence but they've advanced about as far as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping. Hopefully longer range artillery will help Ukraine. The opportunities are very much on their side, if the west wants to support them.

But despite the overconfidence we saw after Ukraine’s victories in the autumn they are grinding forward and the Ukrainians are also losing a lot of men, if not nearly so many.

The problem is the west's plan to do 'just enough' for Ukraine which rightly or wrongly is very low risk. I presume the Russians have adapted to longer supply lines hence the need for longer range artillery.

nico679 said:

I see the clown is now telling the government to cut taxes to win the next election .

The privileges committee needs to end his political career !

Do you mean Cummings?

Scott_xP said:

@TelePolitics: 🗣️ Nadine Dorries has suggested that Dominic Raab, her former Cabinet colleague, should resign from his front bench… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621635466045915136

This to me is factional now. You can guess a attack on x person or y policy by z knowing the faction they are in, leadership caucus in leadership election. There’s an element of opportunism from those not currently in government and associated with its policy. And suspicion at this stage in recent parliaments the energy was being expended on Labour, not bashing each other.

I’m going back onto the dance floor now 💃🏻

algarkirk said:

#
No. Hard graft; tough years; the real problems of statecraft. Cameron is a massive fail, sadly, on all fronts. Of his four successors Sunak has the merit of still being there doing the difficult stuff despite the (entirely justified) virtual impossibility of the Tories winning in 2024. He is the best of the bunch.

He's only been PM less than four months, so it would be a surprise if he wasn't "still being there"! He hasn't had enough time in the job to get any tough years completed yet :-)

dixiedean said:

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Scott_xP said:

@Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

📈21pt Labour Lead

🌹Lab 47 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-3)
🔶LD 9 (=)
➡️Reform 6 (+1)
🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621543361776689152

Another poll showing Tories going DOWN.

These are dire ratings, Sunak should have been able to get them into the 30s. At this rate he's going down back towards Truss - truly we are at the end.

If he squeezes the 6% RefUK rating they will be back the 30s

You might be right but I could make an equally strong case that a good chunk of the RefUK voters are Johnson/Brexit diehards who will simply sit out the next GE if Sunak is leading the Tories. On top of their 47% I also think Labour has a good chance of squeezing the 13% Green/Lib Dem vote, particularly in Con-Lab seats.

Absolutely Olly. The more corrupt and useless the Tory’s are revealed to be the one squeezed they might be they by reform one side Lib Dems on other. If there was ever a curcumstance for 7 or 8% of the right to protest against an embarrassing let down of a corrupt party without fear of a Labour government, it’s this one.

2 other things. HY saying most that reform is Tory come GE is absolutely no different than Nick Palmer telling me today most that Green Wall in Bristols will vote Labour come election regardless of Greens targetting the seats. It’s the same dismissive air isn’t it.

And of course, HY is a Tory bigwig in local politics, perhaps he can put us right with canvassing stories, where they said Corruption, small boat invasion, tax, Truss, weak shit leader and more corruption, bugger off we are voting reform now, yet he talked them round and won them over?

I think Nick is right re Bristol. Time and time again we see Lib Dems performing very strongly in a local area only to see it fail to repeat at GE's.

Green voters will often vote their preference in seats where Labour is strong and likely to win anyway but vote tactically in seats where the Tories might win. Anyway, apologies for my comments earlier, I was probably too harsh on you but I still can't see any evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls!

There is no evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls, and there is no evidence that I ever said there was.

I don’t think it will be entirely fair to dismiss HY getting most the reform on the big day, but agree with Nick Labour will get most the green. For one thing, many of those greens could be now momentum corbynites like BJO for example, for another in some select areas the Greens really have moved the dial since the last general election, they will have a lot of foot soldiers swarming Bristol targetting those constituency’s.

This you? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4293719#Comment_4293719

Ha! That’s not remotely saying Labours whole polling has collapsed, it’s saying a Couple of polls collapsed by -3 and -4 this week. 🤷‍♀️ I actually stated COUPLE and gave precise figures for the two - how on earth to you claim “moon rabbit said Labours votes has collapsed” from that? If your playing fair. Maybe drop instead of collapse, but even then, no I’m obviously not saying labours overall vote isn’t collapsing or going anywhere in a hurry.

The one that started Horse off on my case weeks ago was admittedly far closer to me saying Labours vote has collapsed, because I said Labour polling bounce has collapsed, and quite quickly actually, and kept posting the graph that to me clearly shows it’s quickly halved.

from the surge Truss gave them as her budget proved unpopular, it has quickly collapsed about half, and continues to stay there at that level.

So, no, not even that claim can be misconstrued. And you are cherry picking my posts, as taken as a sequence I’m quite the opposite from saying Labours polling in trouble. Would you like me to link to ALL those from today?

Not letting you get away with it.

This is the labours bounce halved, as COLLAPSED by half, which is true, but Horse and others won’t admit .

I don't know what this argument is about. It's all MOE stuff. And, on average 1in 20 polls will be outside MOE naturally.
The lead remains around 21%.
Nothing has changed since before Christmas.

Spot on. I liked your post because that’s what I’ve been saying in post after post all day!

The fact Labours highest shares tend to oscillate up and down in large chunks I said was interesting that’s all, in three posts I theoryized must be because size of the top end on top the solid 44% varies from place so hard for pollsters to be consistent. I’ve never said in any post Labours polling has collapsed. Before Truss bounce they already had healthy double digit leads from most pollsters, and with half the bounce left after first half quickly collapsed it’s a very solid 20%

Some PBers are just so provocative and argumentative!

dixiedean said:

FrankBooth said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

I see my favourite failed think tank operator is demonstrating yet again that he has difficulty wrestling with facts:

'Experts' for months
- Russia forces about to collapse
- Russia about to run out of weapons
- Russia economy imploding
- China about to throw Russia overboard
- I'm moving to Mastodon cos Elon suggested diplomacy

They're ~ as good as 'behavioural science'

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1621433052218941440

In fact, duh, most people including most experts were saying the opposite for months. The Ukrainian resilience and skill has caught pretty much everyone by surprise. Especially the Russian army but also lots of experts.

In fairness there has been a fair bit of Russia having “cumulated” and being on the point of collapse, very little of which has been borne out.

I have been surprised at their ability to throw more and more troops into the meat grinder without consequence but they've advanced about as far as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping. Hopefully longer range artillery will help Ukraine. The opportunities are very much on their side, if the west wants to support them.

That's really unfair on ants.
They can travel long distances with huge amounts of goods.
Not sure if they ever suffer from asthma.

'''

For no apparent reason I’ve just been reminded that the England cricket team during the 80s -00s featured

Graham Gooch
Graeme Hick
Graham Thorpe
Graeme Swann
Graeme Fowler, and
Graham Dilley

Andy_JS said:

Musk not guilty

That's a matter of opinion.

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Scott_xP said:

@Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

📈21pt Labour Lead

🌹Lab 47 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-3)
🔶LD 9 (=)
➡️Reform 6 (+1)
🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621543361776689152

Another poll showing Tories going DOWN.

These are dire ratings, Sunak should have been able to get them into the 30s. At this rate he's going down back towards Truss - truly we are at the end.

If he squeezes the 6% RefUK rating they will be back the 30s

You might be right but I could make an equally strong case that a good chunk of the RefUK voters are Johnson/Brexit diehards who will simply sit out the next GE if Sunak is leading the Tories. On top of their 47% I also think Labour has a good chance of squeezing the 13% Green/Lib Dem vote, particularly in Con-Lab seats.

Absolutely Olly. The more corrupt and useless the Tory’s are revealed to be the one squeezed they might be they by reform one side Lib Dems on other. If there was ever a curcumstance for 7 or 8% of the right to protest against an embarrassing let down of a corrupt party without fear of a Labour government, it’s this one.

2 other things. HY saying most that reform is Tory come GE is absolutely no different than Nick Palmer telling me today most that Green Wall in Bristols will vote Labour come election regardless of Greens targetting the seats. It’s the same dismissive air isn’t it.

And of course, HY is a Tory bigwig in local politics, perhaps he can put us right with canvassing stories, where they said Corruption, small boat invasion, tax, Truss, weak shit leader and more corruption, bugger off we are voting reform now, yet he talked them round and won them over?

I think Nick is right re Bristol. Time and time again we see Lib Dems performing very strongly in a local area only to see it fail to repeat at GE's.

Green voters will often vote their preference in seats where Labour is strong and likely to win anyway but vote tactically in seats where the Tories might win. Anyway, apologies for my comments earlier, I was probably too harsh on you but I still can't see any evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls!

There is no evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls, and there is no evidence that I ever said there was.

I don’t think it will be entirely fair to dismiss HY getting most the reform on the big day, but agree with Nick Labour will get most the green. For one thing, many of those greens could be now momentum corbynites like BJO for example, for another in some select areas the Greens really have moved the dial since the last general election, they will have a lot of foot soldiers swarming Bristol targetting those constituency’s.

This you? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4293719#Comment_4293719

Ha! That’s not remotely saying Labours whole polling has collapsed, it’s saying a Couple of polls collapsed by -3 and -4 this week. 🤷‍♀️ I actually stated COUPLE and gave precise figures for the two - how on earth to you claim “moon rabbit said Labours votes has collapsed” from that? If your playing fair. Maybe drop instead of collapse, but even then, no I’m obviously not saying labours overall vote isn’t collapsing or going anywhere in a hurry.

The one that started Horse off on my case weeks ago was admittedly far closer to me saying Labours vote has collapsed, because I said Labour polling bounce has collapsed, and quite quickly actually, and kept posting the graph that to me clearly shows it’s quickly halved.

from the surge Truss gave them as her budget proved unpopular, it has quickly collapsed about half, and continues to stay there at that level.

So, no, not even that claim can be misconstrued. And you are cherry picking my posts, as taken as a sequence I’m quite the opposite from saying Labours polling in trouble. Would you like me to link to ALL those from today?

Not letting you get away with it.

This is the labours bounce halved, as COLLAPSED by half, which is true, but Horse and others won’t admit .

But your screenshot is out of date MoonRabbit Labour is back on the rise:

In the light of the recent EU Parliament bribery scandal, it will be interesting to see how this story develops.

Kremlin-Linked Group Arranged Payments to European Politicians to Support Russia’s Annexation of Crimea
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/kremlin-linked-group-arranged-payments-to-european-politicians-to-support-russias-annexation-of-crimea

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH9y3ywS_vQ

Hmm, Rishi comes across well

He's pretty good at PMQs too, not that that matters (see W. Hague 1997-2001).

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Well @TSE has now been in charge of this site for more than 12 hours and so far as I can tell no disasters have occurred. Were we overly pessimistic?

And btw, a Lib Dem supporter with a spine, even a problematic one, what sort of a cover story is that?

I've had a disaster.

I called my other half my ex's name.

Simple rule: always refer to your partner as Honey. Much safer...

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Scott_xP said:

@Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

📈21pt Labour Lead

🌹Lab 47 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-3)
🔶LD 9 (=)
➡️Reform 6 (+1)
🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621543361776689152

Another poll showing Tories going DOWN.

These are dire ratings, Sunak should have been able to get them into the 30s. At this rate he's going down back towards Truss - truly we are at the end.

If he squeezes the 6% RefUK rating they will be back the 30s

You might be right but I could make an equally strong case that a good chunk of the RefUK voters are Johnson/Brexit diehards who will simply sit out the next GE if Sunak is leading the Tories. On top of their 47% I also think Labour has a good chance of squeezing the 13% Green/Lib Dem vote, particularly in Con-Lab seats.

Absolutely Olly. The more corrupt and useless the Tory’s are revealed to be the one squeezed they might be they by reform one side Lib Dems on other. If there was ever a curcumstance for 7 or 8% of the right to protest against an embarrassing let down of a corrupt party without fear of a Labour government, it’s this one.

2 other things. HY saying most that reform is Tory come GE is absolutely no different than Nick Palmer telling me today most that Green Wall in Bristols will vote Labour come election regardless of Greens targetting the seats. It’s the same dismissive air isn’t it.

And of course, HY is a Tory bigwig in local politics, perhaps he can put us right with canvassing stories, where they said Corruption, small boat invasion, tax, Truss, weak shit leader and more corruption, bugger off we are voting reform now, yet he talked them round and won them over?

I think Nick is right re Bristol. Time and time again we see Lib Dems performing very strongly in a local area only to see it fail to repeat at GE's.

Green voters will often vote their preference in seats where Labour is strong and likely to win anyway but vote tactically in seats where the Tories might win. Anyway, apologies for my comments earlier, I was probably too harsh on you but I still can't see any evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls!

There is no evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls, and there is no evidence that I ever said there was.

I don’t think it will be entirely fair to dismiss HY getting most the reform on the big day, but agree with Nick Labour will get most the green. For one thing, many of those greens could be now momentum corbynites like BJO for example, for another in some select areas the Greens really have moved the dial since the last general election, they will have a lot of foot soldiers swarming Bristol targetting those constituency’s.

This you? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4293719#Comment_4293719

Ha! That’s not remotely saying Labours whole polling has collapsed, it’s saying a Couple of polls collapsed by -3 and -4 this week. 🤷‍♀️ I actually stated COUPLE and gave precise figures for the two - how on earth to you claim “moon rabbit said Labours votes has collapsed” from that? If your playing fair. Maybe drop instead of collapse, but even then, no I’m obviously not saying labours overall vote isn’t collapsing or going anywhere in a hurry.

The one that started Horse off on my case weeks ago was admittedly far closer to me saying Labours vote has collapsed, because I said Labour polling bounce has collapsed, and quite quickly actually, and kept posting the graph that to me clearly shows it’s quickly halved.

from the surge Truss gave them as her budget proved unpopular, it has quickly collapsed about half, and continues to stay there at that level.

So, no, not even that claim can be misconstrued. And you are cherry picking my posts, as taken as a sequence I’m quite the opposite from saying Labours polling in trouble. Would you like me to link to ALL those from today?

Not letting you get away with it.

This is the labours bounce halved, as COLLAPSED by half, which is true, but Horse and others won’t admit .

But your screenshot is out of date MoonRabbit Labour is back on the rise:

Yes I know I know! I’m still fighting the battle with Horse and his followers from 3 weeks ago where no one else can apparently see in that image, Labours truss bounce has clearly collapsed by half! Followed by long period of little movement month on month - which we have to call good news for Labour because it’s a 20% lead.

This is what I posted Friday with the smiling and unsmiling edges to indicate direction - or maybe not, it’s in dispute if the edges are still subject to change of direction or not by the next polls.

But when your smiling, on the days snapshot, your smiling. Can we agree that much?

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Tres said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Scott_xP said:

@Savanta_UK: 🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

📈21pt Labour Lead

🌹Lab 47 (+1)
🌳Con 26 (-3)
🔶LD 9 (=)
➡️Reform 6 (+1)
🌍Green 4… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621543361776689152

Another poll showing Tories going DOWN.

These are dire ratings, Sunak should have been able to get them into the 30s. At this rate he's going down back towards Truss - truly we are at the end.

If he squeezes the 6% RefUK rating they will be back the 30s

You might be right but I could make an equally strong case that a good chunk of the RefUK voters are Johnson/Brexit diehards who will simply sit out the next GE if Sunak is leading the Tories. On top of their 47% I also think Labour has a good chance of squeezing the 13% Green/Lib Dem vote, particularly in Con-Lab seats.

Absolutely Olly. The more corrupt and useless the Tory’s are revealed to be the one squeezed they might be they by reform one side Lib Dems on other. If there was ever a curcumstance for 7 or 8% of the right to protest against an embarrassing let down of a corrupt party without fear of a Labour government, it’s this one.

2 other things. HY saying most that reform is Tory come GE is absolutely no different than Nick Palmer telling me today most that Green Wall in Bristols will vote Labour come election regardless of Greens targetting the seats. It’s the same dismissive air isn’t it.

And of course, HY is a Tory bigwig in local politics, perhaps he can put us right with canvassing stories, where they said Corruption, small boat invasion, tax, Truss, weak shit leader and more corruption, bugger off we are voting reform now, yet he talked them round and won them over?

I think Nick is right re Bristol. Time and time again we see Lib Dems performing very strongly in a local area only to see it fail to repeat at GE's.

Green voters will often vote their preference in seats where Labour is strong and likely to win anyway but vote tactically in seats where the Tories might win. Anyway, apologies for my comments earlier, I was probably too harsh on you but I still can't see any evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls!

There is no evidence of a Labour collapse in the polls, and there is no evidence that I ever said there was.

I don’t think it will be entirely fair to dismiss HY getting most the reform on the big day, but agree with Nick Labour will get most the green. For one thing, many of those greens could be now momentum corbynites like BJO for example, for another in some select areas the Greens really have moved the dial since the last general election, they will have a lot of foot soldiers swarming Bristol targetting those constituency’s.

This you? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4293719#Comment_4293719

Ha! That’s not remotely saying Labours whole polling has collapsed, it’s saying a Couple of polls collapsed by -3 and -4 this week. 🤷‍♀️ I actually stated COUPLE and gave precise figures for the two - how on earth to you claim “moon rabbit said Labours votes has collapsed” from that? If your playing fair. Maybe drop instead of collapse, but even then, no I’m obviously not saying labours overall vote isn’t collapsing or going anywhere in a hurry.

The one that started Horse off on my case weeks ago was admittedly far closer to me saying Labours vote has collapsed, because I said Labour polling bounce has collapsed, and quite quickly actually, and kept posting the graph that to me clearly shows it’s quickly halved.

from the surge Truss gave them as her budget proved unpopular, it has quickly collapsed about half, and continues to stay there at that level.

So, no, not even that claim can be misconstrued. And you are cherry picking my posts, as taken as a sequence I’m quite the opposite from saying Labours polling in trouble. Would you like me to link to ALL those from today?

Not letting you get away with it.

This is the labours bounce halved, as COLLAPSED by half, which is true, but Horse and others won’t admit .

But your screenshot is out of date MoonRabbit Labour is back on the rise:

Yes I know I know! I’m still fighting the battle with Horse and his followers from 3 weeks ago where no one else can apparently see in that image, Labours truss bounce has clearly collapsed by half! Followed by long period of little movement month on month - which we have to call good news for Labour because it’s a 20% lead.

This is what I posted Friday with the smiling and unsmiling edges to indicate direction - or maybe not, it’s in dispute if the edges are still subject to change of direction or not by the next polls.

But when your smiling, on the days snapshot, your smiling. Can we agree that much?

So, your point is?

Rishi got a little bounce, not being as abysmal as Loopy Liz, then things have settled down and there’s little sign of any trend since Xmas. It’s not worth arguing about.

New U.S. aid package includes longer-range bombs for Ukraine
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/03/ukriane-aid-includes-longer-range-bombs-00081112

… They will not be drawn from existing American stockpiles however, meaning it will take months for Boeing and the U.S. government to agree on the terms of the contract and get them to the battlefield. That timeline means they will likely not be available for the warm-weather offensives Ukraine is planning this year.

Another issue is that the bomb can’t be launched by any of Ukraine’s current equipment. Ukrainian engineers have been working on retrofits for ground launchers for several months.

Much to the disappointment of some in Kyiv, the last few tranches of aid have not included the weapon...

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

When Dominic Raab was sacked by Liz Truss as justice secretary on September 6, the department was “breathing a collective sigh of relief”, as one senior official put it. “Champagne corks are metaphorically popping in the private office,” they said at the time, referring to the 90-strong team supporting the justice secretary.

Seven weeks later Raab had returned. “Anxiety levels shot through the roof,” another civil servant in the department said.

Anonymous accounts given to The Times by senior and junior civil servants in the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) have explained why. One member of staff who has since left the department said they regularly witnessed staff in his private office “in floods of tears” and “physically shaken” after meetings and interactions with Raab. He rejects the bullying complaints against him.

“He was known to be very, very abrasive and leaving people in tears,” the official said. “I saw him being very, very aggressive to senior officials on more than one occasion. He wasn’t as bad a bully as other bullies but this is more about his behaviour catching up with him. I’ve sat in rooms with secretaries of state being very demanding but in a more palatable way and you would see people physically shaken.”

Civil servants said that even when Raab did not leave staff in tears he relished the “imbalance of power” between him as a secretary of state and officials — often in their twenties and at the start of their careers.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/he-enjoys-the-imbalance-of-power-scared-staff-on-life-under-dominic-raab-5ns2g8bp8

That's got to be a typing error, surely? Otherwise that's physical assault and a criminal matter.

bunch of snowflakes more like