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Next election: LAB now a 75% betting chance to win most seats – politicalbetting.com
Next election: LAB now a 75% betting chance to win most seats – politicalbetting.com
The Smarkets chart above shows how the next general election most seats betting has been moving since the last contest.
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I remain a master strategist.
Right lads, good first half, 2-0, keep it tight second half....
Sunak has also got about a 5% bounce relative to Truss in most polls, even if he still trails what Boris was on last summer.
Given the Tories only got 28% in the 2019 local elections and lost over 1000 seats and 44 councils, they are nearly at rock bottom in the seats up in May anyway
Obey the law whilst filming a publicity piece.
This is nursery school stuff.
When I did archaeology at university back in the 80s only two establishments did a science degree in archaeology - the Institute of Archaeology in London, which was part of the University of London, and University College Cardiff. And both of those were more concerned with conservation than straight archaeology. Hence the reason I chose Cardiff.
One of the great failings of archaeology courses - certainly until quite recently, and from what I hear up to today - is that they don't teach practical archaeology. They teach ancient history, prehistory, stratigraphy and some conservation. But they don't, as a rule, teach people how to survey, how to lay out and run a site and how to actually dig holes (which is an art in itself). All this practical knowledge is expected to be gained by volunteering on digs during the holidays.
https://twitter.com/Spencerjakab/status/1616065657820385280
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1616187471905099805
The current polling would suggest Labour will make big gains presumably primarily if not exclusively at the expense of the Conservatives with the Con-LD/Residents/Independents battle more of a side show.
I'd be looking at councils like Bracknell Forest to see if there is any sign of significant Labour progress in the south.
And then, Latin would not have spread as it did to become the basis of Spanish, French, Portuguese, Romanian and Roman. Perhaps Spain would speak a language akin to Maltese instead. Maybe the French would all be speaking dialects of what is now Breton. Presumably Italian would have survived, but maybe it would have been a bit like Welsh, clinging on at the margins while the elites spoke something else?
And of course, would Carthage have lasted as long as Rome? Possibly not. Or maybe it would have lasted longer and Islam would have been baulked by Carthage in a way Persia and Byzantium did not. Would Christianity have spread as rapidly if it hadn't had the imperial structures to piggyback on? Perhaps not.
Certainly the world would have been rather different.
https://twitter.com/LianaFix/status/1616159430113902614
They would have overextended and lost what they already held?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9HIe9NXdyA
The starting point is C365 L202 on the old boundaries. Put unchanged shares and new boundaries into Electoral Calculus gives C405 L165, which seems toppy.
For Labour to have most seats by their own efforts, they need to shift the dial to about 285 each. A Lib Dem revival pushes that number down a bit.
That seems optimistic for the blue team.
"What a dumb thing to do!" I exclaimed to my friend.
"I know," he replied, "that's what I thought - and I was there, with Dukakis."
Why Latin caught on and Greek did not is also a conundrum. I don't think the Ottomans adequately explain it, because mother tongues are not determined at the invading conqueror level.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11654101/Lee-Andersons-parliamentary-aide-attended-33-000-year-private-school.html
And this is similarly true of the Starmer farago too. Utter waste of time.
Maybe they think Ilkley is representative of the whole borough, so places in the home counties are more worthy.
Don't want to be investigated?
Don't be a complete idiot without the most basic political instincts.
"CorrectHorseBattery3 said:
Culture wars are killing the Tories.
They've had plenty of warning from me about this, I said people will say "I can't afford to eat why on Earth are you telling me about trans rights"
Why does your argument not apply to the SNP then? There are plenty of issues for Scot Gov to deal with, which are far more important to most people than this and yet the SNP have been focused on it despite its unpopularity, according to polls.
So using your analysis - which I agree will be the response of a lot of voters - why has this not affected the SNP in the same way?
And if it hasn't, what does this tell us, if anything?"
People on here discussing Carthage and Rome. What a waste!
For purpose of contrasting what the Great British Public will see as one act of madness (due to bad advice NOT natural badness) in a life of habitual law abidance in general, and seat-belt wearing in particular.
In contrast to Boris Johnson. Whose own personal seat-belt law compliance rate is FAR more doubtful. Less than zero being theoretically impossible, but hardly implausible.
Bloody health and safety?
Suggests a similar Con -> Lab swing in May from 28/28, and the Con 25 position might suggest slight swing to LD as well if one assumes no move in LD vote share.
So the Tories might even regain a few seats back from the LDs even if they also lose some to Labour, especially where LD led councils are unpopular
Ditto Austerlitz and Waterloo. All cities and towns in New York State.
How strange.
https://twitter.com/JohnQBarrett/status/1616185664264880128
If Starmer was a leader with a better connection with the public then the potential for a massive loss of Conservative council seats to Labour would look more likely to be realised.
Plus, a non-trivial amount of work goes into putting in bids that get rejected.
But never to Bellingham, Northumberland, despite being about 30 miles away.
Anyway amarone is valpolicella, the chianti version is called goberno.
Basically completely open to political rigging, and gives the decisions on local investments to central government.
One can both try to tackle inflation, and block a pernicious piece of legislation.
Trump calls for jailing journalists who broke Supreme Court’s draft abortion decision
https://thehill.com/homenews/3820172-trump-calls-for-jailing-journalists-who-broke-supreme-courts-draft-abortion-decision/
That was how bad it was for the Tories, their worst local elections since 1995 so they have little further to fall this May
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_local_elections
I think Europe has something like 2000 Leopard tanks (including Turkey?). The vast majority are not German. I hope many of those countries decide to send their tanks to Ukraine and dare the Germans to object. Scholz's behaviour is inexplicable.
What's most telling is that neither Sunak nor any of the numerous aides/SPADs involved saw the obvious danger of making a film in which the PM is breaking the law. It smacks of gross incompetence, not just naivety.
Goes both ways though. I bet there are things I think are a crime that aren't. Eg taping off the radio.
(I'm frozen in the 70s)
He is hapless; a total waste of space.
https://twitter.com/davewiner/status/1616195791764201478
Tories won 3,564 councillors, control of 93 councils 30 more than Labour, and got 2,985,959 votes. You are spinning it as a nadir? Little further they can fall this time? a floor they would be hard pressed to fall below? No chance of a terrible night?
Which is exactly how Labour and Lib Dems and Farage would want the Tory’s to be spinning it, isn’t it, ahead of putting those 3,564 councillors, 93 councils, 2,985,959 votes on the line?
WTF are you doing?
He is beyond useless. A total tosser.
Or do you think it should be one law for him and another for the rest of us?
Oh, how lucky we are to have these Masters of the Universe looking after us plebs.
If so, he should be. If not, he shouldn't. That would seem fair to me. Otherwise he's getting undue leniency or harshness because of who he is.