Germany's new defence minister Pistorius in his first TV inerview tonight said: "I'm not an expert on military strategy, I'm the defence minister". The entire tragedy of German defence policy in a single sentence on his first day in office. Not bad
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
Most Australians ancestors are in Australia because of Australia Day and the first European settlement there.
It is far leftist rubbish to compare it to the Holocaust or celebrating slavery. In fact the Victorians ensured specific areas and protections for native Aborigines.
If you refuse to celebrate Australia Day you are basically saying no Australians belong in the country except Aborigines
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Japan and South Korea. Though neither are immigration friendly.
And Japan has a rather unique debt profile.
Absolutely not. Japan has been sliding down the median income graph for decades, it is a demographic disaster area, and they are all - still - wearing masks
South Korea’s demographic trajectory is even worse - perhaps the worst on earth - and they are quite definitely menaced by war
Most western (and many non-western) countries now have appalling demographics.
Interestingly, the UK’s are not as bad as most, and yet the country is still fucked. This, it seems to me, takes some effort.
When you say appalling demographics, some might say that the population is contracting back to a more sustainable level.
On the other hand, many other countries are also quite fucked. Albeit in different ways
Coincidentally this tweet has gone viral today. A Welshman pays his first visit to the USA. Is not impressed
“My first time in the USA and I must say it is capitalism in its most naked, violent form. I didn't expect to get a culture shock, but the commodification of everything is on a level I never truly thought possible. It is the socialisation of misery and the privatisation of wealth.”
The sharp fall in trend productivity growth after the 2008 financial crisis is fairly universal but the UK is I think the worst-hit among major economies. Figuring out what has happened and fixing it should be our #1 goal in terms of economic policy. I lived in the US for five years. There was lots I loved about the place and lots I hated. On balance I prefer it here, hence we came home. Ultimately like the guy on Twitter I just found it too brutal. But there is a vigour and confidence there that is very appealing.
The problem is that neither party has any ideas to start tackling this issue. The Tories have resumed the high immigration, "let businesses just throw people at it" method of operation and I doubt Labour will change that either. A few months ago National Grid was paying off shore wind farm companies to not produce power, this is not the first or last time this has or will happen, it's a fairly regular feature of how wind energy works, because it is intermittent. Over the years billions in compensation payments have been made to them, yet the long term solution is to not do that and invest the money into producing power storage facilities.
The current situation is that we pay them not to produce energy when there is too much but when an energy crunch comes along we end up paying 10x the normal rate to import energy from our interconnects. Energy storage is the solution to this as we reduce the need to import and no longer need to pay compensation, but because of short term thinking in National Grid and no penalties for not doing so (the cost of this is simply shuffled onto bills in full) and the desire for management to pay a 6-8% annual yield to shareholders the investment will never happen and we're going to continue paying them to shut off production of energy when there's too much and import energy at 10x the cost when there's too little.
These kinds of situations are endemic in the UK economy and for 30 or so years companies have been incentivised to pay dividends rather than prioritise capital growth. I don't know how to change that culture and it certainly won't happen overnight but at least recognising this would be a first step and neither the Tories nor Labour are talking about it let alone coming up with policies to resolve it.
I would be surprised (appalled) if we were paying above the odds for electricity imported via the interconnects, because apparently we get very little for exporting electricity via the interconnects. Do you have a source for this?
Constraint payments (which compensate for lost subsidy) are a scandal as I have said before. They need to stop. The one loophole that should be allowed is the one that the wind farms use to claim payment for switching off, then store and resell the power. That's still a con, but it is one that could have the positive behavioural impact of getting wind farms to invest in storage. That would help even supply at the margins.
If HMG are serious about levelling up (they're not: this is scraps of bread from the dinner table with heavy branding) then they need a Department of the Regions invested with an annual budget of £10-15bn pa to do it, nationwide.
One reason people get pissed off with politicians and foreign aid is that they're happy to defend and virtue-signal about it for a very generous budget (with plenty of sanctimony on top) but plead parsimony when it comes to opening their purse for their own people.
Matching the foreign aid budget (which is around the level you are suggesting, I think?) would be politically smart.
Better still give the regions proper devolved power to raise their own taxes and spend their own money. As happens in many of our OECD partners.
That doesn't make sense because those regions are already in the slow growth lane, allowing local governments to set higher taxes and eat it up in more bureaucracy will just make it worse. It also would have zero redistributive effect which is ultimately what any kind of levelling up fund amounts to. I think a department for regions makes a lot of sense and fund it with £15-20bn per year for smaller infrastructure projects, metro systems, airports, intercity links etc...
Swings and roundabouts, though.
A single England-wide process gives smoother transfer and might be more efficient (though writing bids isn't that efficient). But regions, cities and towns doing it for themselves maximises the "skin in the game" factor.
But the brilliance or not of the process is second to having the necessary amount of cash in the pot. So this plan isn't really going to help, is it;
Govt scrambling to head off a major red well rebellion over levelling up - ministers & officials will speak to councils which missed out to help them finesse applications for the 3rd round which will come before the next election. Story theipaper:
So they're going to put an even heavier thumb on the scales in favour of Tory constituencies ?
The entire program is a travesty. Central government deciding local priorities, in a manner either arbitrary or party political.
You thought that politicians spending money wasn't going to get political?
One of the main objections to this kind of thing, is that the "picking winners" rapidly becomes "picking the politically useful winners"
The first layer of this is simple patronage - every government tries to direct spending to the constituencies of its MPs.
The second layer is picking winners that fit with some bullshit "strategy" invented in Whitehall that doesn't actually meet reality. Hence the decades of obsession with hydrogen powered vehicles - because this would tick certain political boxes.
Hydogen is a boondoggle that the existing industry has latched onto because it protects all of their jobs as far as I can see. Everyone from the gas engineer to the oil company executive has a vested interest in pushing hydrogen, even if only to delay the switch to non-fossil fuel power as long as possible.
A civil servant told me that, at the core, the concern with electric vehicles is that the fuel is not controllable. So for taxation purposes, it is impossible to tax properly. Road tolls are politically impossible.
People charging their cars from a solar roof - as is becoming common in California - are a nightmare to such people.
Why not tax by, say, weight times mileage (as in miles driven by the vehicle)? Easily determinable, difficult to fake, and reasonably fair.
The polling suggests that people really, really don't trust the politicians over tax on road vehicles. It was toxic at Community Charge/Poll Tax levels.
IIRC focus groups that dived into this, had a common theme - "They'll use this to raise the tax on cars and try and hide it."
People don't trust politicians over anything, but the politicians still have to make policies! It seems obvious that petrol/diesel taxes will need to be replaced with something else at some point.
It can't be replaced by something that involves the politicians committing political suicide. Hence the slowly dying push for hydrogen....
On EV charging - unless the government bans it, charging from an ordinary household socket is possible (though slow) and can't practically be regulated.
Yes, I know that EV charging can't practically be regulated - that's why I suggested taxing EVs by weight and mileage instead! A decision has already been taken to start levying car tax on EVs soon (2025?) so the principle of taxing EVs isn't that politically suicidal. On the contrary, I think most people see the need for it.
On the other hand, many other countries are also quite fucked. Albeit in different ways
Coincidentally this tweet has gone viral today. A Welshman pays his first visit to the USA. Is not impressed
“My first time in the USA and I must say it is capitalism in its most naked, violent form. I didn't expect to get a culture shock, but the commodification of everything is on a level I never truly thought possible. It is the socialisation of misery and the privatisation of wealth.”
The sharp fall in trend productivity growth after the 2008 financial crisis is fairly universal but the UK is I think the worst-hit among major economies. Figuring out what has happened and fixing it should be our #1 goal in terms of economic policy. I lived in the US for five years. There was lots I loved about the place and lots I hated. On balance I prefer it here, hence we came home. Ultimately like the guy on Twitter I just found it too brutal. But there is a vigour and confidence there that is very appealing.
The problem is that neither party has any ideas to start tackling this issue. The Tories have resumed the high immigration, "let businesses just throw people at it" method of operation and I doubt Labour will change that either. A few months ago National Grid was paying off shore wind farm companies to not produce power, this is not the first or last time this has or will happen, it's a fairly regular feature of how wind energy works, because it is intermittent. Over the years billions in compensation payments have been made to them, yet the long term solution is to not do that and invest the money into producing power storage facilities.
The current situation is that we pay them not to produce energy when there is too much but when an energy crunch comes along we end up paying 10x the normal rate to import energy from our interconnects. Energy storage is the solution to this as we reduce the need to import and no longer need to pay compensation, but because of short term thinking in National Grid and no penalties for not doing so (the cost of this is simply shuffled onto bills in full) and the desire for management to pay a 6-8% annual yield to shareholders the investment will never happen and we're going to continue paying them to shut off production of energy when there's too much and import energy at 10x the cost when there's too little.
These kinds of situations are endemic in the UK economy and for 30 or so years companies have been incentivised to pay dividends rather than prioritise capital growth. I don't know how to change that culture and it certainly won't happen overnight but at least recognising this would be a first step and neither the Tories nor Labour are talking about it let alone coming up with policies to resolve it.
There is no single solution. Certainly the electricity market can and should be addressed, since it wasn't designed to cope with the massively fluctuating price differentials between different power sources that the Ukraine situation has thrown up. And it's completely within the power (and ability) of government to rewrite the market rules to improve it.
But realistically the first time National Grid had to pay compensation one day and then import power the next there should have been a meeting to say, "this is idiotic lets just build power storage facilities" but because they just pass the full cost onto bills no one gives a flying fuck and spending money on it would mean lower bonuses for execs and lower dividends for shareholders...
Well, yes. Why do you think I've bored on about companies like Highview Power for half a decade or so ?
But the market does need sorting - along with the regulation of foreign owned utilities, whose rent seeking could be significantly reduced without serious repercussions.
I've had roof panels for over a decade, and I was considering adding batteries to the mix. However, I decided against it finally. I don't have an electric car, and the reliability of the batteries are still unknown. Even if they didn't break down, I'm now in my seventies and the pay-back time might coincide with my own mortality.
It's not pure selfishness, the excess electricity goes back to the grid at about 4p a unit. Cheap at twice the price. But I'm doing well enough from the feed in tariff to prosper.
If they start taxing the solar panel electricity for use in cars, I was right.
If HMG are serious about levelling up (they're not: this is scraps of bread from the dinner table with heavy branding) then they need a Department of the Regions invested with an annual budget of £10-15bn pa to do it, nationwide.
One reason people get pissed off with politicians and foreign aid is that they're happy to defend and virtue-signal about it for a very generous budget (with plenty of sanctimony on top) but plead parsimony when it comes to opening their purse for their own people.
Matching the foreign aid budget (which is around the level you are suggesting, I think?) would be politically smart.
Better still give the regions proper devolved power to raise their own taxes and spend their own money. As happens in many of our OECD partners.
That doesn't make sense because those regions are already in the slow growth lane, allowing local governments to set higher taxes and eat it up in more bureaucracy will just make it worse. It also would have zero redistributive effect which is ultimately what any kind of levelling up fund amounts to. I think a department for regions makes a lot of sense and fund it with £15-20bn per year for smaller infrastructure projects, metro systems, airports, intercity links etc...
Swings and roundabouts, though.
A single England-wide process gives smoother transfer and might be more efficient (though writing bids isn't that efficient). But regions, cities and towns doing it for themselves maximises the "skin in the game" factor.
But the brilliance or not of the process is second to having the necessary amount of cash in the pot. So this plan isn't really going to help, is it;
Govt scrambling to head off a major red well rebellion over levelling up - ministers & officials will speak to councils which missed out to help them finesse applications for the 3rd round which will come before the next election. Story theipaper:
So they're going to put an even heavier thumb on the scales in favour of Tory constituencies ?
The entire program is a travesty. Central government deciding local priorities, in a manner either arbitrary or party political.
You thought that politicians spending money wasn't going to get political?
One of the main objections to this kind of thing, is that the "picking winners" rapidly becomes "picking the politically useful winners"
The first layer of this is simple patronage - every government tries to direct spending to the constituencies of its MPs.
The second layer is picking winners that fit with some bullshit "strategy" invented in Whitehall that doesn't actually meet reality. Hence the decades of obsession with hydrogen powered vehicles - because this would tick certain political boxes.
Hydogen is a boondoggle that the existing industry has latched onto because it protects all of their jobs as far as I can see. Everyone from the gas engineer to the oil company executive has a vested interest in pushing hydrogen, even if only to delay the switch to non-fossil fuel power as long as possible.
A civil servant told me that, at the core, the concern with electric vehicles is that the fuel is not controllable. So for taxation purposes, it is impossible to tax properly. Road tolls are politically impossible.
People charging their cars from a solar roof - as is becoming common in California - are a nightmare to such people.
Why not tax by, say, weight times mileage (as in miles driven by the vehicle)? Easily determinable, difficult to fake, and reasonably fair.
The polling suggests that people really, really don't trust the politicians over tax on road vehicles. It was toxic at Community Charge/Poll Tax levels.
IIRC focus groups that dived into this, had a common theme - "They'll use this to raise the tax on cars and try and hide it."
People don't trust politicians over anything, but the politicians still have to make policies! It seems obvious that petrol/diesel taxes will need to be replaced with something else at some point.
It can't be replaced by something that involves the politicians committing political suicide. Hence the slowly dying push for hydrogen....
On EV charging - unless the government bans it, charging from an ordinary household socket is possible (though slow) and can't practically be regulated.
Yes, I know that EV charging can't practically be regulated - that's why I suggested taxing EVs by weight and mileage instead! A decision has already been taken to start levying car tax on EVs soon (2025?) so the principle of taxing EVs isn't that politically suicidal. On the contrary, I think most people see the need for it.
Road tax which will be equal to that of ICE cars....
The problem is all that lovely petrol tax money. The government is addicted to petrol.
The joy of hydrogen was that they could simply introduce a hydrogen tax. People trying to make their own hydrogen at home will be a self limiting problem. A small number of experts can do it. The rest will die if they attempt it.
You can't do that with EVs. So either you have massively increased Road ax (electoral death) or you introduce charging (ha!) by the mile (electoral death).
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Electoral Calculus gives the SNP 45 seats on the new boundaries based on that poll. 7 for Labour, 3 for the Tories, 2 LD. That feels plausible.
Labour is tantalisingly close to a real breakthrough in Scottish seats - it's not hard to imagine a further narrowing of the Lab-SNP gap based on tactical Unionist voting plus continued slight erosion of the SNP.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
Most Australians ancestors are in Australia because of Australia Day and the first European settlement there.
It is far leftist rubbish to compare it to the Holocaust or celebrating slavery. In fact the Victorians ensured specific areas and protections for native Aborigines.
If you refuse to celebrate Australia Day you are basically saying no Australians belong in the country except Aborigines
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Japan and South Korea. Though neither are immigration friendly.
And Japan has a rather unique debt profile.
Absolutely not. Japan has been sliding down the median income graph for decades, it is a demographic disaster area, and they are all - still - wearing masks
South Korea’s demographic trajectory is even worse - perhaps the worst on earth - and they are quite definitely menaced by war
'Menaced' ? Only in the sense they have been for seventy years. Actual fear of a major attack from the north is pretty low.
Getting decent grades in school is a far larger source of anxiety.
You might feel differently if you were South Korean
Imagine if Scotland had gone independent and was now run by an angry Fascist triumvirate of @malcolmg, @StuartDickson and Elizabeth Bathory, the Blood Countess, and they are all on fentanyl, and - by the way - they kept Trident
Only the male to female changes are seen as dangerous - because they threaten women-only spaces. As a male, it's probably none of my business.
One side claim they can be a danger, the other side that they are all lovely people and the danger is non-existent. Hmm, my experience of humanity is that there's always someone who will take advantage, even if the risk is small. Ah, but it's worthwhile say the supporters, therefore no one should be allowed to complain.
A little childish, and none of my business, but I can make a confident prediction. Someone, somewhere will be discovered to be harmed and the sides will argue because they won't believe facts anyway. It's called politics.
Because men are about twice as strong as women. And about three times more violent.
Comparisons of official MOJ statistics from March / April 2019 (most recent official count of transgender prisoners):
76 sex offenders out of 129 transwomen = 58.9%
125 sex offenders out of 3812 women in prison = 3.3%
13234 sex offenders out of 78781 men in prison = 16.8%
Note, I do not believe that this illustrates that trans women are a greater threat to natal women than men, but clearly men who identify as trans women are. Hence why safeguarding access to GRCs is important - something the Scottish government repeatedly ignored.
I’ll have to go dig up the document again, but last time I looked the policy for the prison service was that those with a GRC could go in the women’s estate /unless/ they had a conviction for any kind of sexual crime.
Which seems a sensible place for the policy to be to me? You could push this a little further in either direction, but the fundamental approach seems a sound & proporionate response to me.
At the moment there are very few trans prisoners with a GRC. Those that have a GRC have more rights than those without - although the prison policy aims to treat all those who identify as trans humanely. The issues will arise when a greater number of trans identifying men can get GRCs and hence greater rights, easier access to the female Estate. Holyrood voted down an amendment that would have blocked a man charged with a sex offence from applying for a GRC.
Electoral Calculus gives the SNP 45 seats on the new boundaries based on that poll. 7 for Labour, 3 for the Tories, 2 LD. That feels plausible.
Labour is tantalisingly close to a real breakthrough in Scottish seats - it's not hard to imagine a further narrowing of the Lab-SNP gap based on tactical Unionist voting plus continued slight erosion of the SNP.
That's what it looks like from the polling, but I'm nervous of opining too confidently on Scottish matters from London.
Missed this. Good to know Labour's official position is for the contract to be stripped and the government appears sympathetic if they can organise the management capacity.
Missed this. Good to know Labour's official position is for the contract to be stripped and the government appears sympathetic if they can organise the management capacity.
Let's see what happens.
I thought Labour were pro-trans? Picking on them just because they live in the Pennines seems a bit harsh
On a positive side, following the worry expressed here a week or so ago on the XBB variant:
The share of it in the community appears to have levelled out already. (Thanks to Oliver Johnson for the graph)
Meanwhile: The level of covid in the community is dropping like a stone as it runs into a blanket of hybrid immunity and the autumn boosters.
Don't expect to see that in the Guardian, or indeed have Leon admit he was wrong.
In what way was I “wrong”. I said XBB was a cause for some worry, but not panic. My exact words
That remains the case
XBB Variant Up to 21 Times More Evasive to Vaccine Antibodies Than BA.5 — BQ.1.1 variant also better at escaping neutralizing antibodies, lab data show
Personally I don’t give a fuck any more. I’ve had more jabs than a masochistic pin cushion with a needle fetish. Let Covid do what it does. Let us get on with life
I am of course often wrong in other cases. Several times a day, in fact
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
Most Australians ancestors are in Australia because of Australia Day and the first European settlement there.
It is far leftist rubbish to compare it to the Holocaust or celebrating slavery. In fact the Victorians ensured specific areas and protections for native Aborigines.
If you refuse to celebrate Australia Day you are basically saying no Australians belong in the country except Aborigines
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Japan and South Korea. Though neither are immigration friendly.
And Japan has a rather unique debt profile.
Absolutely not. Japan has been sliding down the median income graph for decades, it is a demographic disaster area, and they are all - still - wearing masks
South Korea’s demographic trajectory is even worse - perhaps the worst on earth - and they are quite definitely menaced by war
'Menaced' ? Only in the sense they have been for seventy years. Actual fear of a major attack from the north is pretty low.
Getting decent grades in school is a far larger source of anxiety.
You might feel differently if you were South Korean
Imagine if Scotland had gone independent and was now run by an angry Fascist triumvirate of @malcolmg, @StuartDickson and Elizabeth Bathory, the Blood Countess, and they are all on fentanyl, and - by the way - they kept Trident
You’d look nervously north, quite often
Seventy years ago ? I imagine we'd have adjusted. Though you might still be shouting BRACE once in a while.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
So Zahawi is currently briefing journalists on background that the only evidence against him comes from the blog of a Labour activist. That's a very weird way to describe The Sun.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
It all gets a bit silly.
There should be an official amortisation rate for problematicness (problematism? Problematicality?) 100 years ago we might overlook someone having expressed mildly imperialist views. 200 years ago and perhaps doing a bit of big game hunting in the Savanna or indulging in a bit of pillage after a battle with the French. 2000 years ago and pretty much all transgressions fully written off up to and including throwing Christians to the lions or maintaining a harem.
Sounds like another withdrawal of territory is coming.
When they finally withdraw completely, they'll probably frame it as saving the world from a nuclear holocaust that was being instigated by the West.
Maybe that can be their off-ramp. Kudos for saving the world from WW3 by not nuking everyone. Legends.
I know you're making a joke, but this 'off-ramp' stuff is faintly ridiculous.
Only one person can stop this conflict: Putin. If he 'wins' in Ukraine, he and his regime have made it clear that Ukraine is not the end. Other countries are unlikely to remove all sanctions. Ukrainian partisan activity will continue. If there is a stalemate, then it sadly appears that Russia will allow him to continue pouring men and material into the meatgrinder. If he is thrown back to the 1991 borders, he seems willing to turn his great country into a facsimile of North Korea.
The best time for Putin to have stopped this war was on February 23rd, by not starting it. The next-best time was in March, during the withdrawal from Kyiv, when he could have said: "Job done! Ukraine denazified!". There was probably another opportunity in the autumn.
But he can stop this war at any time. He does not need an 'off-ramp'. He is the only person who can stop this war.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
It all gets a bit silly.
There should be an official amortisation rate for problematicness (problematism? Problematicality?) 100 years ago we might overlook someone having expressed mildly imperialist views. 200 years ago and perhaps doing a bit of big game hunting in the Savanna or indulging in a bit of pillage after a battle with the French. 2000 years ago and pretty much all transgressions fully written off up to and including throwing Christians to the lions or maintaining a harem.
This is not about statues though it's about not actually positively partying to celebrate the beginning of a genocide.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
It all gets a bit silly.
When I was studying modern history, the teacher told us that we shouldn't bring up things that happened more than six years ago, and these were considered current events by the exam board.
Maybe we should now reverse that: just call everybody who lived before 6 years ago a bastard and not study them and only pay any attention to people who have TikTok accounts?
So Zahawi is currently briefing journalists on background that the only evidence against him comes from the blog of a Labour activist. That's a very weird way to describe The Sun.
I’m quite envious of Neidle as he gets to say and do things my job wouldn’t allow for.
But he does it way better than I ever could anyway. He has an impressively thick skin, innate self-confidence and a forensic ability to deal only in verifiable facts and not fall prey to his own hype (unlike certain other notable fox-bothering lawyers)
Sounds like another withdrawal of territory is coming.
When they finally withdraw completely, they'll probably frame it as saving the world from a nuclear holocaust that was being instigated by the West.
Maybe that can be their off-ramp. Kudos for saving the world from WW3 by not nuking everyone. Legends.
I know you're making a joke, but this 'off-ramp' stuff is faintly ridiculous.
Only one person can stop this conflict: Putin. If he 'wins' in Ukraine, he and his regime have made it clear that Ukraine is not the end. Other countries are unlikely to remove all sanctions. Ukrainian partisan activity will continue. If there is a stalemate, then it sadly appears that Russia will allow him to continue pouring men and material into the meatgrinder. If he is thrown back to the 1991 borders, he seems willing to turn his great country into a facsimile of North Korea.
The best time for Putin to have stopped this war was on February 23rd, by not starting it. The next-best time was in March, during the withdrawal from Kyiv, when he could have said: "Job done! Ukraine denazified!". There was probably another opportunity in the autumn.
But he can stop this war at any time. He does not need an 'off-ramp'. He is the only person who can stop this war.
And it sadly seems he does not want to.
The off ramp thinking dates back to the time in the past when European governments still thought they would have to deal with Putin after the end of the war. I think (hope) it’s now clearly realised that this probably won’t happen. If he’s pushed out of Ukraine then by extension he gets pushed out of the presidency, peacefully or otherwise.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
It all gets a bit silly.
When I was studying modern history, the teacher told us that we shouldn't bring up things that happened more than six years ago, and these were considered current events by the exam board.
Maybe we should now reverse that: just call everybody who lived before 6 years ago a bastard and not study them and only pay any attention to people who have TikTok accounts?
I am guessing no known Fishing has been enslaved or genocidically murdered in the last couple of centuries. How hard is it to imagine that you might feel differently if they had been?
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
It all gets a bit silly.
When I was studying modern history, the teacher told us that we shouldn't bring up things that happened more than six years ago, and these were considered current events by the exam board.
Maybe we should now reverse that: just call everybody who lived before 6 years ago a bastard and not study them and only pay any attention to people who have TikTok accounts?
That’s the trouble with modern history you see: it’s humanities. Get rid of them!
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Is it? Or is it just a few who have an issue with it. I'm pretty sure for most it is just an excuse for a damn good party. On the ski slopes Australians celebrate Australia like nothing else. If you were anywhere near the Kangaroo bar in St Anton on Australia day you know it. You have to weave past unconscious Aussies scattered all over the slope next to the bar.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
OK, so while I have some sympathy with the argument (partic statues to those responsible for Nazi Holocaust - though don't think there are any), it also means if taken to its logical conclusion that we should take down any statue or celebration or commemoration of pretty much anyone and everything in history. George Washington should be removed from everywhere as he was a slave owner, Oliver Cromwell for what he did to my Irish ancestors, Churchill for being a colonialist, Harry Truman for taking the atomic bomb decision, Oppenheimer etc. etc. Then you should eradicate all historical figures who were misogynists (which is pretty much all) and any that went to war on religious grounds (Alfred the Great, Richard the Lionheart etc.). The behaviour of our ancestors should definitely be questioned in the context of todays values, but the suggestion that history and historical figures should be "cancelled" is almost as sinister as those who carried out what we would now rightly consider crimes
Not to mention, Abraham Lincoln was racially prejudiced, as was Gandhi, and FDR. Even by the standards of 2023, I don't see anything wrong with dropping the atomic bombs.
It all gets a bit silly.
When I was studying modern history, the teacher told us that we shouldn't bring up things that happened more than six years ago, and these were considered current events by the exam board.
Maybe we should now reverse that: just call everybody who lived before 6 years ago a bastard and not study them and only pay any attention to people who have TikTok accounts?
That’s the trouble with modern history you see: it’s humanities. Get rid of them!
Zahawi is currently in the Cabinet as Minister without Tax Return Portfolio. Would it be too much to suggest Sunak should remove him from the Cabinet, at least? He looks bang to rights, and it's a bit more important than seatbeltgate.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
I know a couple of people took my mild criticism of the German government over Ukraine to heart yesterday. But these snippets from the Guardian sorta indicates my frustration with the German government's position:
"Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said in the last few minutes on the sidelines of the Ramstein meeting that there has been no decision made yet on whether Leopard battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine. However, he said he had given his ministry the task this morning to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available."
So after nearly a year of war, the German government is only just starting to look at what tanks they could send? This is absolutely preposterous; I'm amazed it was not something they were doing in the middle of last year at the latest, and maintaining as an ongoing process.
And the following also touches on the "Germany wants the US to send tanks first" crowd from yesterday: "German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit meanwhile has told reporters in Berlin that Scholz is not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the USA delivers its M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
“At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” he said. This is despite Scholz saying earlier in the week Germany would consider sending Leopard tanks only if the US agreed to send its tanks."
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
On a positive side, following the worry expressed here a week or so ago on the XBB variant:
The share of it in the community appears to have levelled out already. (Thanks to Oliver Johnson for the graph)
Meanwhile: The level of covid in the community is dropping like a stone as it runs into a blanket of hybrid immunity and the autumn boosters.
Don't expect to see that in the Guardian, or indeed have Leon admit he was wrong.
In what way was I “wrong”. I said XBB was a cause for some worry, but not panic. My exact words
That remains the case
XBB Variant Up to 21 Times More Evasive to Vaccine Antibodies Than BA.5 — BQ.1.1 variant also better at escaping neutralizing antibodies, lab data show
Personally I don’t give a fuck any more. I’ve had more jabs than a masochistic pin cushion with a needle fetish. Let Covid do what it does. Let us get on with life
I am of course often wrong in other cases. Several times a day, in fact
Is that how you are categorizing your dramatic posting that 'something is up in China', lots of report of the Kraken variant etc?
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Also interesting how the dissatisfaction is very much congruent with the red wall.
And exclude literaly dozens of other federal, state, and local programs.
I would agree that all of these programs have flaws, but I am not prepared to exclude total spending of more than $2.5 trillion, annually, in order to say the US has "little to no welfare state".
(For the record: I am a recipient of the last two, and will be receiving a nice cost of living increase from them, starting next week.)
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
This is a question about things relative to the recent past though, not absolute.
One of the strangest libertarian groups in the US are the Neoconfederate libertarians. There aren't many, and I haven't seen much attention paid to them for years, but they do exist,
Kentucky junior senator Rand Paul appears to be one of them. He has hired Neoconfederate staffers, and he claims to be a libertarian. Which he probably is, for himself.
And exclude literaly dozens of other federal, state, and local programs.
I would agree that all of these programs have flaws, but I am not prepared to exclude total spending of more than $2.5 trillion, annually, in order to say the US has "little to no welfare state".
(For the record: I am a recipient of the last two, and will be receiving a nice cost of living increase from them, starting next week.)
One of the big problems for the US is that they spend a *huge* amount of tax money on healthcare, for relatively terrible outcomes.
US welfare spending is (again, relatively) ineffective because of the way the system operates, not a lack of spend. Which is something that UK politicians should reflect on.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
This is a question about things relative to the recent past though, not absolute.
To be more precise, a penalty for carelessness is 0% to 30% - it would only be at 30% if there is no co-operation with HMRC. Typically it is possible to negotiate down to 0% if there has been an unprompted disclosure and full assistance.
A penalty for a deliberate error is 20% to 70%, and for deliberate and concealed between 30% and 100%.
If the matter is an offshore then there can be additional penalties.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Also interesting how the dissatisfaction is very much congruent with the red wall.
The last few years? My area got worse, because we had a pandemic. I can imagine this is a great question in normal times, but now?
On a positive side, following the worry expressed here a week or so ago on the XBB variant:
The share of it in the community appears to have levelled out already. (Thanks to Oliver Johnson for the graph)
Meanwhile: The level of covid in the community is dropping like a stone as it runs into a blanket of hybrid immunity and the autumn boosters.
Don't expect to see that in the Guardian, or indeed have Leon admit he was wrong.
In what way was I “wrong”. I said XBB was a cause for some worry, but not panic. My exact words
That remains the case
XBB Variant Up to 21 Times More Evasive to Vaccine Antibodies Than BA.5 — BQ.1.1 variant also better at escaping neutralizing antibodies, lab data show
Personally I don’t give a fuck any more. I’ve had more jabs than a masochistic pin cushion with a needle fetish. Let Covid do what it does. Let us get on with life
I am of course often wrong in other cases. Several times a day, in fact
Is that how you are categorizing your dramatic posting that 'something is up in China', lots of report of the Kraken variant etc?
i apologise for writing in a vivid and memorable way, and will in future confine my remarks to the future of Electric Vehicle recharging points in Clywd
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
Tempting as that sentiment might be, it’s hardly constructive is it? There is no space for collective punishment in modern morality. It’s the sentiment that led to Hiroshima and Dresden.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
Tempting as that sentiment might be, it’s hardly constructive is it? There is no space for collective punishment in modern morality. It’s the sentiment that led to Hiroshima and Dresden.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki put a stop to the war. They probably saved more lives than they cost.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
This is a question about things relative to the recent past though, not absolute.
Already the case for beer: Belgian beer often has a champagne-style cork and wire, but no foil. Doesn't make it seem any less premium to me. I think the foil will remain on English sparkling, due to wanting it to look like Champagne.
To be more precise, a penalty for carelessness is 0% to 30% - it would only be at 30% if there is no co-operation with HMRC. Typically it is possible to negotiate down to 0% if there has been an unprompted disclosure and full assistance.
A penalty for a deliberate error is 20% to 70%, and for deliberate and concealed between 30% and 100%.
If the matter is an offshore then there can be additional penalties.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
This is a question about things relative to the recent past though, not absolute.
An odd story because loads of English sparkling is sold without the foil and has been for years. Take Breaky Bottom, one of the longest running and most revered producers.
Interesting but be careful what is inferred from this. It's a while since I dealt with this kind of thing and I've not kept up to speed with the changes since, although I doubt the principles will have changed.
Penalties used only to be applied in serious or clear cut cases. Mostly inspectors were happy enough to charge the tax and interest. Penalties moved matters on to a different level and there were clear guidelines on how to apply them.
You would start from a theoretical 100% and then discount for size, gravity and co-operation. I think we can take it that this case was fairly big, though not the very biggest. Gravity would be low if this were, say, a tax avoidance scheme that had gone wrong, as that would suggest a difference of opinion rather than deliberate dishonesty. Co-operation is self-explanatory and one assumes he got most of the available discount for that.
Thirty percent sounds quite high to me for a negotiated settlement. Once you get above fifty percent a lot of taxpayers would tend to say 'dammit I'll see you in court' where the same weightings apply but are not negotiable.
I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?
On a positive side, following the worry expressed here a week or so ago on the XBB variant:
The share of it in the community appears to have levelled out already. (Thanks to Oliver Johnson for the graph)
Meanwhile: The level of covid in the community is dropping like a stone as it runs into a blanket of hybrid immunity and the autumn boosters.
Don't expect to see that in the Guardian, or indeed have Leon admit he was wrong.
In what way was I “wrong”. I said XBB was a cause for some worry, but not panic. My exact words
That remains the case
XBB Variant Up to 21 Times More Evasive to Vaccine Antibodies Than BA.5 — BQ.1.1 variant also better at escaping neutralizing antibodies, lab data show
Personally I don’t give a fuck any more. I’ve had more jabs than a masochistic pin cushion with a needle fetish. Let Covid do what it does. Let us get on with life
I am of course often wrong in other cases. Several times a day, in fact
Is that how you are categorizing your dramatic posting that 'something is up in China', lots of report of the Kraken variant etc?
i apologise for writing in a vivid and memorable way, and will in future confine my remarks to the future of Electric Vehicle recharging points in Clywd
Ha! There is line between vivid and memorable and outright scare-mongering.
Good riddance to the rootless cosmopolitan citizens of nowhere! Rich people voting with their feet post-Brexit:
‘Super-rich falling out of love with Britain’
…a trend that began shortly after the Brexit vote in 2016, since when an estimated 12,000 millionaires have deserted the UK for pastures new. Among them will be dozens of well-paid bankers, who have been forced by employers to relocate around Europe in the wake of Brexit.
…Britain was once a magnet for the wealthy, who were attracted by the strong rule of law and the relative political stability, while a friendly time zone allowed them to conduct their business with staff and clients based around the world. “Now that Brexit has been entrenched and the very real longer-term consequences are being felt, we have seen increased movement from wealthy UK citizens looking to claw back their EU status by obtaining an EU residence or citizenship by investment,” Stuart Wakeling, head of Henley & Partners’ London office, said.’
Whilst I’m no fan of the super rich per se, they no doubt put money into the economy. Them deciding to leave - and to regain EU status, something I sadly cannot afford - is yet another symptom of how Brexit is damaging the country. We are becoming an irrelevant backwater, a joke of a country, mired in slow decline as the jingoistic Brexit nutters push for even more Brexit purity with their insane EU Retained Law Bill.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
Tempting as that sentiment might be, it’s hardly constructive is it? There is no space for collective punishment in modern morality. It’s the sentiment that led to Hiroshima and Dresden.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki put a stop to the war. They probably saved more lives than they cost.
This is an age old argument of course, but 2 demonstration bombs in the Sea of Japan would quite possibly have done the trick. So would nukes on purely industrial or military targets. And Dresden was about terrorising the population.
It’s also the sentiment that allowed Russian soldiers to rape their way through Germany in 1944/5.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
The children too. Goodness.
I'm going with the most kind interpretation of your remarks - you're a simpleton.
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Given inner London is by far the wealthiest place in Europe per head and attracts therefore the most skilled and successful from across Europe still that is no surprise
This is a question about things relative to the recent past though, not absolute.
Already the case for beer: Belgian beer often has a champagne-style cork and wire, but no foil. Doesn't make it seem any less premium to me. I think the foil will remain on English sparkling, due to wanting it to look like Champagne.
The industry has moved beyond that. Sustainability is in fashion and soon foils will look very old hat.
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
Tempting as that sentiment might be, it’s hardly constructive is it? There is no space for collective punishment in modern morality. It’s the sentiment that led to Hiroshima and Dresden.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki put a stop to the war. They probably saved more lives than they cost.
Truman had a choice between dead Americans and Japanese or dead Japanese. He made the only choice open to him.
And exclude literaly dozens of other federal, state, and local programs.
I would agree that all of these programs have flaws, but I am not prepared to exclude total spending of more than $2.5 trillion, annually, in order to say the US has "little to no welfare state".
(For the record: I am a recipient of the last two, and will be receiving a nice cost of living increase from them, starting next week.)
Food stamps are time limited for unemployed single males, Medicaid is available only to the very poorest, Medicare only for pensioners.
Social Security is only available to pensioners, widows and widowers and the disabled
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
Putin is assuming symmetry in actions - the Ukrainians seem to have a thriving industry in building weapons and are trying to build longer and longer range missiles and drones.
Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
To be honest, wouldn't be the worst thing for a Ukrainian missile to accidentally take out an apartment block in Moscow.
I'm trying to interpret this in any possible way that doesn't mean you'd be happy to see innocent men, women and children die in flames. 'To be honest'.
They are complicit in Putin being president. They are all guilty.
Tempting as that sentiment might be, it’s hardly constructive is it? There is no space for collective punishment in modern morality. It’s the sentiment that led to Hiroshima and Dresden.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki put a stop to the war. They probably saved more lives than they cost.
Truman had a choice between dead Americans and Japanese or dead Japanese. He made the only choice open to him.
I think there was also the feeling that they had to show the world, and in particular the Russians, that the thing was for real.
The Russians of course knew all about it thanks to their spies, but Truman didn't know they knew. Truman was evidently surprised at how calmly Stalin took the news of a 'special bomb' when told by him, but of course now we know why.
mwadams - I quite agree that the US welfare system is wasteful, especially in health care. But I don't think that the poor results in the US have much to do with our doctors and hospitals.
I would draw your attention to what is called the "Hispanic Paradox": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_paradox "The Hispanic paradox is an epidemiological finding that Hispanic Americans tend to have health outcomes that "paradoxically" are comparable to, or in some cases better than, those of their U.S. non-Hispanic White counterparts, even though Hispanics have lower average income and education. Low socioeconomic status is almost universally associated with worse population health and higher death rates everywhere in the world.[2] The paradox usually refers in particular to low mortality among Hispanics in the United States relative to non-Hispanic Whites.[3][4][5][6][7][8] According to the Center for Disease Control's 2015 Vital Signs report, Hispanics in the United States had a 24% lower risk of mortality, as well as lower risk for nine of the fifteen leading causes of death as compared to Whites."
In my opinion, that Hispanic advantage is a result of stronger families, and stronger communities.
(It would be interesting to know whether Glasgow -- which, as I understand it, has a few health problems -- has fewer intact families, proportionately, than, say, Edinburgh.)
But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany
Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.
Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Australia has issues to do with immigration and even Australia Day is divisive now.
Canada was divided over Trudeau's lockdown and is still divided over his Wokeism
Celebrating invasion day in Australia has always been divisive and it's good to see the opposition to it getting stronger.
No respect should be shown for the commission of crimes against humanity. You can call it whatever "ism" you like, but there should not be statues to those responsible for the Nazi holocaust, or official praise for those who nuked Japan, or towns named after slaveowners, or days celebrating the invasion of Australia that preceded the commission of crimes against humanity against the indigenous population by the invaders.
Most Australians ancestors are in Australia because of Australia Day and the first European settlement there.
It is far leftist rubbish to compare it to the Holocaust or celebrating slavery. In fact the Victorians ensured specific areas and protections for native Aborigines.
If you refuse to celebrate Australia Day you are basically saying no Australians belong in the country except Aborigines
It’s probably more worthwhile, right now, to ask what major countries are doing “well”?
i.e. peaceful, prosperous, unified, good healthcare, not screwed by Covid, not riven by race/migration problems, not weighed by debt or menaced by war, crime, drugs, civil strife
Australia Canada Switzerland (if you see it as major) Er… Germany PERHAPS
After that it gets tricky. There are lots of tiny countries doing well - Norway, Iceland, Qatar, UAE, Austria… but they don’t count
Have I missed anywhere?
Japan and South Korea. Though neither are immigration friendly.
And Japan has a rather unique debt profile.
Absolutely not. Japan has been sliding down the median income graph for decades, it is a demographic disaster area, and they are all - still - wearing masks
South Korea’s demographic trajectory is even worse - perhaps the worst on earth - and they are quite definitely menaced by war
'Menaced' ? Only in the sense they have been for seventy years. Actual fear of a major attack from the north is pretty low.
Getting decent grades in school is a far larger source of anxiety.
You might feel differently if you were South Korean
Imagine if Scotland had gone independent and was now run by an angry Fascist triumvirate of @malcolmg, @StuartDickson and Elizabeth Bathory, the Blood Countess, and they are all on fentanyl, and - by the way - they kept Trident
I know a couple of people took my mild criticism of the German government over Ukraine to heart yesterday. But these snippets from the Guardian sorta indicates my frustration with the German government's position:
"Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said in the last few minutes on the sidelines of the Ramstein meeting that there has been no decision made yet on whether Leopard battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine. However, he said he had given his ministry the task this morning to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available."
So after nearly a year of war, the German government is only just starting to look at what tanks they could send? This is absolutely preposterous; I'm amazed it was not something they were doing in the middle of last year at the latest, and maintaining as an ongoing process.
And the following also touches on the "Germany wants the US to send tanks first" crowd from yesterday: "German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit meanwhile has told reporters in Berlin that Scholz is not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the USA delivers its M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
“At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” he said. This is despite Scholz saying earlier in the week Germany would consider sending Leopard tanks only if the US agreed to send its tanks."
You should be happy if Germany is delinking Leopards going to Ukraine from US tanks going to Ukraine, as it looks like the US is unwilling to move on this, despite Ukraine asking for US tanks since last April.
Although, without checking the original, the word "delivers" might be significant here.
I know a couple of people took my mild criticism of the German government over Ukraine to heart yesterday. But these snippets from the Guardian sorta indicates my frustration with the German government's position:
"Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said in the last few minutes on the sidelines of the Ramstein meeting that there has been no decision made yet on whether Leopard battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine. However, he said he had given his ministry the task this morning to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available."
So after nearly a year of war, the German government is only just starting to look at what tanks they could send? This is absolutely preposterous; I'm amazed it was not something they were doing in the middle of last year at the latest, and maintaining as an ongoing process.
And the following also touches on the "Germany wants the US to send tanks first" crowd from yesterday: "German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit meanwhile has told reporters in Berlin that Scholz is not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the USA delivers its M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
“At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” he said. This is despite Scholz saying earlier in the week Germany would consider sending Leopard tanks only if the US agreed to send its tanks."
You should be happy if Germany is delinking Leopards going to Ukraine from US tanks going to Ukraine, as it looks like the US is unwilling to move on this, despite Ukraine asking for US tanks since last April.
Although, without checking the original, the word "delivers" might be significant here.
Why do you keep on turning this back onto the US? It's of no relevance what the US does - as Hebestreit appears to say in the quite above.
You were wrong yesterday; you should be asking why the German government is continually kicking itself in the back of its head over this. Germany's done some good stuff, but not enough, and their messaging just gives ammunition to the Kremlin and its supporters.
I know a couple of people took my mild criticism of the German government over Ukraine to heart yesterday. But these snippets from the Guardian sorta indicates my frustration with the German government's position:
"Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said in the last few minutes on the sidelines of the Ramstein meeting that there has been no decision made yet on whether Leopard battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine. However, he said he had given his ministry the task this morning to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available."
So after nearly a year of war, the German government is only just starting to look at what tanks they could send? This is absolutely preposterous; I'm amazed it was not something they were doing in the middle of last year at the latest, and maintaining as an ongoing process.
And the following also touches on the "Germany wants the US to send tanks first" crowd from yesterday: "German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit meanwhile has told reporters in Berlin that Scholz is not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the USA delivers its M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
“At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” he said. This is despite Scholz saying earlier in the week Germany would consider sending Leopard tanks only if the US agreed to send its tanks."
You should be happy if Germany is delinking Leopards going to Ukraine from US tanks going to Ukraine, as it looks like the US is unwilling to move on this, despite Ukraine asking for US tanks since last April.
Although, without checking the original, the word "delivers" might be significant here.
Why do you keep on turning this back onto the US? It's of no relevance what the US does - as Hebestreit appears to say in the quite above.
You were wrong yesterday; you should be asking why the German government is continually kicking itself in the back of its head over this. Germany's done some good stuff, but not enough, and their messaging just gives ammunition to the Kremlin and its supporters.
There are a few reasons why the German government might be hesitating, but you have alternately insisted that you understand (without saying what it is you understand despite me asking twice), to insisting there is no possible reason for the German delay.
What was I wrong about yesterday? Preferably with an actual quote so I know what you are talking about as you have a history of putting words into my mouth that I never said, and are often the opposite of what I actually think.
You are quite wrong if you think what the US does is irrelevant. It is in a way very puzzling why the US hasn't already announced Abrams for Ukraine, if the US is itself united in wanting Ukraine to get tanks.
I know a couple of people took my mild criticism of the German government over Ukraine to heart yesterday. But these snippets from the Guardian sorta indicates my frustration with the German government's position:
"Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said in the last few minutes on the sidelines of the Ramstein meeting that there has been no decision made yet on whether Leopard battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine. However, he said he had given his ministry the task this morning to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available."
So after nearly a year of war, the German government is only just starting to look at what tanks they could send? This is absolutely preposterous; I'm amazed it was not something they were doing in the middle of last year at the latest, and maintaining as an ongoing process.
And the following also touches on the "Germany wants the US to send tanks first" crowd from yesterday: "German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit meanwhile has told reporters in Berlin that Scholz is not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the USA delivers its M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
“At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” he said. This is despite Scholz saying earlier in the week Germany would consider sending Leopard tanks only if the US agreed to send its tanks."
You should be happy if Germany is delinking Leopards going to Ukraine from US tanks going to Ukraine, as it looks like the US is unwilling to move on this, despite Ukraine asking for US tanks since last April.
Although, without checking the original, the word "delivers" might be significant here.
Why do you keep on turning this back onto the US? It's of no relevance what the US does - as Hebestreit appears to say in the quite above.
You were wrong yesterday; you should be asking why the German government is continually kicking itself in the back of its head over this. Germany's done some good stuff, but not enough, and their messaging just gives ammunition to the Kremlin and its supporters.
There are a few reasons why the German government might be hesitating, but you have alternately insisted that you understand (without saying what it is you understand despite me asking twice), to insisting there is no possible reason for the German delay.
What was I wrong about yesterday? Preferably with an actual quote so I know what you are talking about as you have a history of putting words into my mouth that I never said, and are often the opposite of what I actually think.
You are quite wrong if you think what the US does is irrelevant. It is in a way very puzzling why the US hasn't already announced Abrams for Ukraine, if the US is itself united in wanting Ukraine to get tanks.
A simple question, whose answer will show where I'm coming from: why is the German government only now undertaking an examination of the stocks of tanks available?
There are follow-on questions as well: should this have not been done many months ago, given Ukraine's repeated calls for tanks? Does the German military not know the state of its own tanks? Why is the German government so incompetent as to not have answers to such a simple and obvious question?
As for your last line: Why wasn't what the US does relevant to the UK sending Challenger 2 tanks? Why is it relevant to Germany but not the UK?
In addition, I listed yesterday why the Abrams is not ideal for Ukraine (but better than nothing). The best fit for Ukraine is the Leopard 2. And countries want to give them - but it seems Germany is stopping them.
Comments
Juxtaposing those two ideas in a sentence was pretty dumb.
Constraint payments (which compensate for lost subsidy) are a scandal as I have said before. They need to stop. The one loophole that should be allowed is the one that the wind farms use to claim payment for switching off, then store and resell the power. That's still a con, but it is one that could have the positive behavioural impact of getting wind farms to invest in storage. That would help even supply at the margins.
But the market does need sorting - along with the regulation of foreign owned utilities, whose rent seeking could be significantly reduced without serious repercussions.
It's not pure selfishness, the excess electricity goes back to the grid at about 4p a unit. Cheap at twice the price. But I'm doing well enough from the feed in tariff to prosper.
If they start taxing the solar panel electricity for use in cars, I was right.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ally-medvedev-warns-nuclear-war-if-russia-defeated-ukraine-2023-01-19/
Sounds like another withdrawal of territory is coming.
The problem is all that lovely petrol tax money. The government is addicted to petrol.
The joy of hydrogen was that they could simply introduce a hydrogen tax. People trying to make their own hydrogen at home will be a self limiting problem. A small number of experts can do it. The rest will die if they attempt it.
You can't do that with EVs. So either you have massively increased Road ax (electoral death) or you introduce charging (ha!) by the mile (electoral death).
The share of it in the community appears to have levelled out already.
(Thanks to Oliver Johnson for the graph)
Meanwhile:
The level of covid in the community is dropping like a stone as it runs into a blanket of hybrid immunity and the autumn boosters.
I know what will help, let's discuss trans rights
I vote for Slough.
Have we settled who would pay the Capital Gains Tax for the improvements?
Imagine if Scotland had gone independent and was now run by an angry Fascist triumvirate of @malcolmg, @StuartDickson and Elizabeth Bathory, the Blood Countess, and they are all on fentanyl, and - by the way - they kept Trident
You’d look nervously north, quite often
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64325655
Missed this. Good to know Labour's official position is for the contract to be stripped and the government appears sympathetic if they can organise the management capacity.
Let's see what happens.
That remains the case
XBB Variant Up to 21 Times More Evasive to Vaccine Antibodies Than BA.5
— BQ.1.1 variant also better at escaping neutralizing antibodies, lab data show
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/102690
Personally I don’t give a fuck any more. I’ve had more jabs than a masochistic pin cushion with a needle fetish. Let Covid do what it does. Let us get on with life
I am of course often wrong in other cases. Several times a day, in fact
I imagine we'd have adjusted. Though you might still be shouting BRACE once in a while.
It all gets a bit silly.
Asked repeatedly about the penalt… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616420181034631169
BMW Group and Solid Power deepen Joint Development Partnership
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0407744EN/bmw-group-and-solid-power-deepen-joint-development-partnership
Which issues would most determine how Britons would vote in a General Election? (15 January)
The Economy 66%
Healthcare 62%
Immigration 26%
Education 24%
The Environment 19%
Taxation 19%
Housing 19%
Welfare 16%
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1616420404863565826
The UK is in a phase of complacent stagnation and slow decline from a fairly high base, as is much of Western Europe.
Completely different, as are the remedies.
https://twitter.com/DanNeidle/status/1616426874795597824
Only one person can stop this conflict: Putin. If he 'wins' in Ukraine, he and his regime have made it clear that Ukraine is not the end. Other countries are unlikely to remove all sanctions. Ukrainian partisan activity will continue. If there is a stalemate, then it sadly appears that Russia will allow him to continue pouring men and material into the meatgrinder. If he is thrown back to the 1991 borders, he seems willing to turn his great country into a facsimile of North Korea.
The best time for Putin to have stopped this war was on February 23rd, by not starting it. The next-best time was in March, during the withdrawal from Kyiv, when he could have said: "Job done! Ukraine denazified!". There was probably another opportunity in the autumn.
But he can stop this war at any time. He does not need an 'off-ramp'. He is the only person who can stop this war.
And it sadly seems he does not want to.
30% is at the lower end of what I'd expect. But the obvious point: people whose taxes are "fully up to date" don't pay 30% penalties to HMRC.
https://twitter.com/DanNeidle/status/1616419508813438976
Maybe we should now reverse that: just call everybody who lived before 6 years ago a bastard and not study them and only pay any attention to people who have TikTok accounts?
But he does it way better than I ever could anyway. He has an impressively thick skin, innate self-confidence and a forensic ability to deal only in verifiable facts and not fall prey to his own hype (unlike certain other notable fox-bothering lawyers)
https://www.taxpolicy.org.uk/2023/01/20/zahawi_evasion/
Russians have placed their Pantsir “air defense” system on roof tops of governmental buildings in Moscow.
Image how the Russian war effort has moved from “we will take Kyiv in 3 days” to “we have to defend Moscow”. And the Pantsir is pure trash.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1616162719186518016
Edit - maybe unhappy Russians:
#Russia: Pantsir air defense missile system not far from #Putin's private residence in #Moscow spotted. All in vicinity of #Rublevka, where his Mafia also live in palaces.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1616357996430229505
Tax ReturnPortfolio. Would it be too much to suggest Sunak should remove him from the Cabinet, at least? He looks bang to rights, and it's a bit more important than seatbeltgate.Why not expect that, sooner or later, they will do an attack deep into Russia?
In the age of satellite navigation, extended range doesn't mean diminished accuracy, necessarily.
Deliberate under-reporting gets 70%, concealment gets 100%.
"Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius has said in the last few minutes on the sidelines of the Ramstein meeting that there has been no decision made yet on whether Leopard battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine.
However, he said he had given his ministry the task this morning to “undertake an examination of the stocks” of the tanks available."
So after nearly a year of war, the German government is only just starting to look at what tanks they could send? This is absolutely preposterous; I'm amazed it was not something they were doing in the middle of last year at the latest, and maintaining as an ongoing process.
And the following also touches on the "Germany wants the US to send tanks first" crowd from yesterday:
"German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit meanwhile has told reporters in Berlin that Scholz is not making the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks dependent on whether or not the USA delivers its M1-Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
“At no time has there been any deal or demand that one thing would follow on from another,” he said. This is despite Scholz saying earlier in the week Germany would consider sending Leopard tanks only if the US agreed to send its tanks."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-expecting-strong-decisions-as-kyivs-allies-meet-in-germany
https://twitter.com/alastairmeeks/status/1616436001668218881?s=46&t=8TH3eoa6-Ts6tEIglDmzgg
I’m quite surprised at the London data to be honest: it’s not been great here either. But it does say something about the “success” so far of levelling up.
Also interesting how the dissatisfaction is very much congruent with the red wall.
That's true if you exclude food stamps: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supplemental_Nutrition_Assistance_Program
(approximately 40 million recipients, more than $50 billion, annually)
And exclude Medicaid: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid
(approximately 74 million recipients, about $600 billion annually)
And exclude Medicare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)
(approximately 60 million recipients, about $775 billion annually)
And exclude Social Security: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_(United_States)
(approximately 65 million recipents, in 2021, about $1.145 trillion or about 5 percent of U.S. GDP.")
And exclude literaly dozens of other federal, state, and local programs.
I would agree that all of these programs have flaws, but I am not prepared to exclude total spending of more than $2.5 trillion, annually, in order to say the US has "little to no welfare state".
(For the record: I am a recipient of the last two, and will be receiving a nice cost of living increase from them, starting next week.)
Kentucky junior senator Rand Paul appears to be one of them. He has hired Neoconfederate staffers, and he claims to be a libertarian. Which he probably is, for himself.
US welfare spending is (again, relatively) ineffective because of the way the system operates, not a lack of spend. Which is something that UK politicians should reflect on.
https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/01/foil-to-be-scrapped-on-english-sparkling-wine/
A penalty for a deliberate error is 20% to 70%, and for deliberate and concealed between 30% and 100%.
If the matter is an offshore then there can be additional penalties.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/penalties-an-overview-for-agents-and-advisers
I never had any intention of putting on a foil.
Penalties used only to be applied in serious or clear cut cases. Mostly inspectors were happy enough to charge the tax and interest. Penalties moved matters on to a different level and there were clear guidelines on how to apply them.
You would start from a theoretical 100% and then discount for size, gravity and co-operation. I think we can take it that this case was fairly big, though not the very biggest. Gravity would be low if this were, say, a tax avoidance scheme that had gone wrong, as that would suggest a difference of opinion rather than deliberate dishonesty. Co-operation is self-explanatory and one assumes he got most of the available discount for that.
Thirty percent sounds quite high to me for a negotiated settlement. Once you get above fifty percent a lot of taxpayers would tend to say 'dammit I'll see you in court' where the same weightings apply but are not negotiable.
I'm intrigued however as to how the Guardian came to know all this. The Department was pretty hot on confidentiality, in my day at least. I cannot imagine how this has come to light other than through a leak, and personally I'm not crazy about anyone being pilloried as a result of a deliberate leak of such private information. Does more harm than good, imo, so even if he has been a naughty boy, would I want him sacked as a result of the leak?
I think not, but maybe there's more to it.
‘Super-rich falling out of love with Britain’
…a trend that began shortly after the Brexit vote in 2016, since when an estimated 12,000 millionaires have deserted the UK for pastures new. Among them will be dozens of well-paid bankers, who have been forced by employers to relocate around Europe in the wake of Brexit.
…Britain was once a magnet for the wealthy, who were attracted by the strong rule of law and the relative political stability, while a friendly time zone allowed them to conduct their business with staff and clients based around the world. “Now that Brexit has been entrenched and the very real longer-term consequences are being felt, we have seen increased movement from wealthy UK citizens looking to claw back their EU status by obtaining an EU residence or citizenship by investment,” Stuart Wakeling, head of Henley & Partners’ London office, said.’
https://apple.news/AQaNtrfeUT2KCCy5p5xnpRg
Whilst I’m no fan of the super rich per se, they no doubt put money into the economy. Them deciding to leave - and to regain EU status, something I sadly cannot afford - is yet another symptom of how Brexit is damaging the country. We are becoming an irrelevant backwater, a joke of a country, mired in slow decline as the jingoistic Brexit nutters push for even more Brexit purity with their insane EU Retained Law Bill.
It’s also the sentiment that allowed Russian soldiers to rape their way through Germany in 1944/5.
I'm going with the most kind interpretation of your remarks - you're a simpleton.
NEW THREAD
(b) Linear on a log chart will indicate exponential (in this case growth of proportion).
Social Security is only available to pensioners, widows and widowers and the disabled
The Russians of course knew all about it thanks to their spies, but Truman didn't know they knew. Truman was evidently surprised at how calmly Stalin took the news of a 'special bomb' when told by him, but of course now we know why.
I would draw your attention to what is called the "Hispanic Paradox": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_paradox
"The Hispanic paradox is an epidemiological finding that Hispanic Americans tend to have health outcomes that "paradoxically" are comparable to, or in some cases better than, those of their U.S. non-Hispanic White counterparts, even though Hispanics have lower average income and education. Low socioeconomic status is almost universally associated with worse population health and higher death rates everywhere in the world.[2] The paradox usually refers in particular to low mortality among Hispanics in the United States relative to non-Hispanic Whites.[3][4][5][6][7][8] According to the Center for Disease Control's 2015 Vital Signs report, Hispanics in the United States had a 24% lower risk of mortality, as well as lower risk for nine of the fifteen leading causes of death as compared to Whites."
In my opinion, that Hispanic advantage is a result of stronger families, and stronger communities.
(It would be interesting to know whether Glasgow -- which, as I understand it, has a few health problems -- has fewer intact families, proportionately, than, say, Edinburgh.)
The former defence secretary was utterly derelict in her duty, apparently.
https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616422559121117189
Germany’s new defence minister Pistorius says in Ramstein that no decision made yet on leopard tanks.
But he hinted that the decision may be made in the coming days or weeks and 🇩🇪MoD is preparing by starting to inquire into potentially available numbers of tanks in Germany
Also appears that Scholz continues to slowtime the decision.
Also no comment on whether or not Germany would give the export licence to others willing to deliver leopards. According to Pistorius, it had been discussed but not decided. He emphasised that he as defence minister doesn’t call the shots on the matter.
Although, without checking the original, the word "delivers" might be significant here.
You were wrong yesterday; you should be asking why the German government is continually kicking itself in the back of its head over this. Germany's done some good stuff, but not enough, and their messaging just gives ammunition to the Kremlin and its supporters.
What was I wrong about yesterday? Preferably with an actual quote so I know what you are talking about as you have a history of putting words into my mouth that I never said, and are often the opposite of what I actually think.
You are quite wrong if you think what the US does is irrelevant. It is in a way very puzzling why the US hasn't already announced Abrams for Ukraine, if the US is itself united in wanting Ukraine to get tanks.
There are follow-on questions as well: should this have not been done many months ago, given Ukraine's repeated calls for tanks? Does the German military not know the state of its own tanks? Why is the German government so incompetent as to not have answers to such a simple and obvious question?
As for your last line:
Why wasn't what the US does relevant to the UK sending Challenger 2 tanks? Why is it relevant to Germany but not the UK?
In addition, I listed yesterday why the Abrams is not ideal for Ukraine (but better than nothing). The best fit for Ukraine is the Leopard 2. And countries want to give them - but it seems Germany is stopping them.
Why?