Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Telegraph thinks Johnson can turn Tory fortunes round – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2023 in General
imageThe Telegraph thinks Johnson can turn Tory fortunes round – politicalbetting.com

Why 2023 will be another ‘year of Boris Johnson’In the year ahead, the former prime minister is set to push his case for being the best-placed Tory to win the next election.By Ben Riley-Smith, POLITICAL EDITOR?@Telegraph? #paywall https://t.co/ZahG7ZRxBy

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • Test
  • 342-4, Mike.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    Test

    The Kiwis have lost two quick wickets, but Pakistan won't be betting on a first innings lead until they get Williamson.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Second.
    Oh dear, oh dear.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    dixiedean said:

    Second.
    Oh dear, oh dear.

    Second, as in the rate the DfE think of themselves as vs the actual rate they are?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    So Johnson has gone back to his traditional role of plotting from the back benches.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Foxy said:

    So Johnson has gone back to his traditional role of plotting from the back benches.

    Not quite. It isn't his 'traditional role' until he knocks up his secretary.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Unflushable.


    When would the challenge come? After the locals? Or the traditional Autumn putsch?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Jonathan said:

    Unflushable.


    When would the challenge come? After the locals? Or the traditional Autumn putsch?

    Hopefully after the SPC have booted him out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unflushable.


    When would the challenge come? After the locals? Or the traditional Autumn putsch?

    Hopefully after the SPC have booted him out.
    He really is ‘Britain Trump’.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    342-4, Mike.

    Very likely heading for a dull draw because neither team scored quickly enough to give the bowlers time to get 20 wickets on a very flat surface. Its interesting listening to the commentary how often this test is being adversely compared to the England series.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    edited December 2022
    This test has *draw* written all over it.

    (That leaves @Northern_Al with a serious dilemma. Now the draw is ruled out, which side does he back to win?)

    Edit - bloody hell, draw just ain't happening, @DavidL has predicted it too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2022
    I would agree with the Telegraph that Boris is better placed to hold the strong Leave redwall seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales from Labour than Rishi is.

    However I would say that Sunak is better placed to hold the bluewall seats in the South of England from the LDs than Johnson. Sunak might also do a bit better in London now than Johnson, especially in seats with a high Hindu population and in Scotland too Sunak would do a little better than Johnson.

    Overall therefore not much difference. Johnson might also reduce leakage to RefUK but Sunak would reduce leakage to the LDs. Both however would do better than Truss would have had she remained Tory leader and PM when the Tories really were facing annihilation
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    HYUFD said:

    I would agree with the Telegraph that Boris is better placed to hold the strong Leave redwall seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales from Labour than Rishi is.

    However I would say that Sunak is better placed to hold the bluewall seats in the South of England from the LDs than Johnson. Sunak might also do a bit better in London now than Johnson, especially in seats with a high Hindu population and in Scotland too Sunak would do a little better than Johnson.

    Overall therefore not much difference. Johnson might also reduce leakage to RefUK but Sunak would reduce leakage to the LDs. Both however would do better than Truss would have had she remained Tory leader and PM when the Tories really were facing annihilation

    Have you never heard the expression which begins “Fool me once…”
    Most of the electorate have.

    Johnson is just another desperate fantasy at this point.
  • Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is sensible, hard-working, honest and reasonable. He simply doesn't fit in the current Conservative Party, and certainly not as its leader.
  • Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    Fortunately for Rishi, that doesn't matter in this case. Most of the votes to Bin Boris will come from the opposition benches. Bozza's fate depends on what the Conservative MPs do. Unless he can keep the number of Boris-sceptics down to less than about 40, he's out.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited December 2022
    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
  • The Telegraph panders to its base these days, just like The Guardian does.

    That said: I am keeping tight on Boris as next PM.

    2 years is a long time.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    And how much more tax than legally required do you pay?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is sensible, hard-working, honest and reasonable. He simply doesn't fit in the current Conservative Party, and certainly not as its leader.
    It can work if you have a loyal group around you, providing ideas and air cover. It worked for Thatcher, Johnson and Cameron as they went against the grain of the party in their early days. Sunak doesn’t really appear to have any of that. Unless you count Raab. It’s a one man band. Sunak’s chancellor is not a Sunakite.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    edited December 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Unflushable.


    When would the challenge come? After the locals? Or the traditional Autumn putsch?

    The tories have now had so many self-inflicted decapitation strikes that the thought of another leadership challenge doesn't seem shocking or even surprising so Johnson has that going for him.

    Do Rishi in 'When yellow leaves, or none, or few, do hang' as Shakespeare wrote. Snap election with a campaign based on Brexit Betrayal and Trussonomic Tax Cuts. Could work.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Is something beginning in Afghanistan ?

    Astonishing scenes as a Kabul university professor destroys his diplomas on live TV in Afghanistan —

    “From today I don’t need these diplomas anymore because this country is no place for an education. If my sister & my mother can’t study, then I DON’T accept this education.”

    https://twitter.com/NasimiShabnam/status/1607823196488888321
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
    This is the kind of post which makes online forums, twitter, etc. such bad places. Stop and think about it ... was your post necessary? No. Was it kind? No. Was it even witty or smart? No.

    The Telegraph, as others have noted, has been off the wall lately. However, that doesn't preclude the occasional moment of lucidity. Like the piercing recognition of an otherwise cloudy dementia patient. And I'm not making light of that awful illness.

  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
    This is the kind of post which makes online forums, twitter, etc. such bad places. Stop and think about it ... was your post necessary? No. Was it kind? No. Was it even witty or smart? No.

    It was definitely at least one of those things. Unlike your post which he quoted.

    How on earth can you in one post call something "batshit crazy" and then just 12 minutes later criticise someone else for not being kind?

    Hypocrite, thy name is Heathener.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    Ah, I see your age has changed again. Today you're younger than me.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    Wow a GE before Sunday
    Ah good spot!

    Replace 2023 for 2024

    And 2022 for 2023.

    But the general tone on here is getting a macho and bit bear-pit so I will gracefully exit stage left, hopefully not pursued by the aforementioned.

    Have a nice day everyone and DO be nice to one another. Stop before posting and ask yourself, 'is this really necessary?' and 'is this really kind?' If it isn't, then maybe amend it.

    Love and peace to you all.

    xx
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459
    ydoethur said:

    This test has *draw* written all over it.

    (That leaves @Northern_Al with a serious dilemma. Now the draw is ruled out, which side does he back to win?)

    Edit - bloody hell, draw just ain't happening, @DavidL has predicted it too.

    Thanks for the tip.
    New Zealand to win. Williamson will score a daddy hundred, Pakistan won't make 250 in their second innings. Just enough time for NZ to knock off the 100 needed.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    And how much more tax than legally required do you pay?
    Wow. Go and make yourself a cup of tea and splash in some milk of kindness. It will be good for you.

    Ciao ciao.

    xx
  • DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
    Not entirely.

    Firstly, the Conservatives getting c. 200 seats at the next election is still a big defeat.

    Secondly, let's think of it in betting terms. Sunak is the "cut your losses" candidate. Barring black swans, the Conservatives lose under his leadership, but survivably badly. They have a chance in 2029 and a reasonably good one in 2034. Think Alec Douglas-Home reimagined as a global finance bod with excellent Instagram.

    Johnson and Truss are both "try to win back your losses by putting your house on an unlikely bet" candidates. You almost certainly end up far worse off, but there is a chance, a tiny chance, of a really memorable win in 2024.

    That sort of gamble only makes sense if you aren't planning on being around for the 2029 election, which may be true for the Telegraph and a lot of its readership. But it ain't conservative.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,153
    Nigelb said:

    Is something beginning in Afghanistan ?

    Astonishing scenes as a Kabul university professor destroys his diplomas on live TV in Afghanistan —

    “From today I don’t need these diplomas anymore because this country is no place for an education. If my sister & my mother can’t study, then I DON’T accept this education.”

    https://twitter.com/NasimiShabnam/status/1607823196488888321

    I’ve speculated that there must be at least some ideas leaking over the border from Iran given the ubiquity of social media in Afghanistan, especially in the more Persian areas in the West. The fight is quite similar. Probably limited influence closer to Pakistan though.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Heathener said:

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    And how much more tax than legally required do you pay?
    Wow. Go and make yourself a cup of tea and splash in some milk of kindness. It will be good for you.

    Ciao ciao.

    xx
    Translation: "none, and therefore I am a hypocrite".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    Back on track: #Germany is heading into 2023 with #gas reserves close to 90%. We could manage an extremely cold January/February now. Storages may end up at >70% in March. Essentially, we are already solving the problem of next winter these days.
    https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1607683259961573377
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    Sunak won't call the next general election until Spring 2024 at the
    earliest, maybe even as late as December 2024 or January 2025.

    He will want time for Hunt to reduce the deficit and get some tax cuts for average earners in before he calls the general election
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
    This is the kind of post which makes online forums, twitter, etc. such bad places. Stop and think about it ... was your post necessary? No. Was it kind? No. Was it even witty or smart? No.

    The Telegraph, as others have noted, has been off the wall lately. However, that doesn't preclude the occasional moment of lucidity. Like the piercing recognition of an otherwise cloudy dementia patient. And I'm not making light of that awful illness.

    I was aiming for wit and not being entirely serious. I am sorry if you thought I was being offensive, that was not my intention at all.

    Personally, I disagree with you. The days when Boris was the answer to any question that the Tory party might think to ask are long past and the Telegraph is, to quote a phrase, batshit crazy to think otherwise.
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would agree with the Telegraph that Boris is better placed to hold the strong Leave redwall seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales from Labour than Rishi is.

    However I would say that Sunak is better placed to hold the bluewall seats in the South of England from the LDs than Johnson. Sunak might also do a bit better in London now than Johnson, especially in seats with a high Hindu population and in Scotland too Sunak would do a little better than Johnson.

    Overall therefore not much difference. Johnson might also reduce leakage to RefUK but Sunak would reduce leakage to the LDs. Both however would do better than Truss would have had she remained Tory leader and PM when the Tories really were facing annihilation

    Have you never heard the expression which begins “Fool me once…”
    Most of the electorate have.

    Johnson is just another desperate fantasy at this point.
    Good morning

    Dorries and the Telegraph are in denial if they think Johnson is the answer to the conservative woes

    Sunak has achieved stability which is a good place to be in at present, and as he resists high public sector wage demands, and takes the flak, we are more likely to see a quicker reduction in inflation because he stands firm which is in everyone's interests

    Furthermore he is the only conservative who may mitigate the 2024 result though I expect Starmer to become PM but sadly I do not see much changing even if he does

    My eldest son and his wife are here from Vancouver and he holds dual Kiwi/UK,citizenship and he said that free movement between New Zealand and Australia applies but there is no entitlement to any benefits for those taking advantage of this free movement.

    What a good idea for the UK
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
    Not entirely.

    Firstly, the Conservatives getting c. 200 seats at the next election is still a big defeat.

    Secondly, let's think of it in betting terms. Sunak is the "cut your losses" candidate. Barring black swans, the Conservatives lose under his leadership, but survivably badly. They have a chance in 2029 and a reasonably good one in 2034. Think Alec Douglas-Home reimagined as a global finance bod with excellent Instagram.

    Johnson and Truss are both "try to win back your losses by putting your house on an unlikely bet" candidates. You almost certainly end up far worse off, but there is a chance, a tiny chance, of a really memorable win in 2024.

    That sort of gamble only makes sense if you aren't planning on being around for the 2029 election, which may be true for the Telegraph and a lot of its readership. But it ain't conservative.
    There is an unfortunate parallel between the various investigations into Trump and the Privileges Committee's investigations into Johnson. In both cases the conclusion will eventually be that we wouldn't buy a used car from the person under investigation, even if it was the last mode of transport available. The only question is whether those conclusions come too late to be meaningful.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,161
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    prior to 97 there was a push to get a label on Blair - Bambi/Demon Eyes etc. none of it cut through and New Labour managed to get Murdoch on side and the 5 pledges thing was sufficiently bland not to cause alarm. Major's government spent 3 years running on fumes.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    So, batshit crazy but correct on this particular occasion. Okay.
    This is the kind of post which makes online forums, twitter, etc. such bad places. Stop and think about it ... was your post necessary? No. Was it kind? No. Was it even witty or smart? No.

    The Telegraph, as others have noted, has been off the wall lately. However, that doesn't preclude the occasional moment of lucidity. Like the piercing recognition of an otherwise cloudy dementia patient. And I'm not making light of that awful illness.

    I was aiming for wit and not being entirely serious. I am sorry if you thought I was being offensive, that was not my intention at all.

    Personally, I disagree with you. The days when Boris was the answer to any question that the Tory party might think to ask are long past and the Telegraph is, to quote a phrase, batshit crazy to think otherwise.
    Don't worry about it, David, you succeeded in the wit. Heathener is just playing the usual Heathener games.
  • Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    The next election will be October 24 and certainly not in 2022 !!!!!

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    If the proverbial bus (ideally a red one with a load of lying advertising drivel on the side) ran over Rishi I've no doubt Johnson would be next Tory leader.

    They are that desperate and there is now no one else
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614
    Nigelb said:

    Is something beginning in Afghanistan ?

    Astonishing scenes as a Kabul university professor destroys his diplomas on live TV in Afghanistan —

    “From today I don’t need these diplomas anymore because this country is no place for an education. If my sister & my mother can’t study, then I DON’T accept this education.”

    https://twitter.com/NasimiShabnam/status/1607823196488888321

    Kabul was always a different country to the rest of Afghanistan. An amplified version of the internationalised capital vs traditional countryside thing. Taken to the max.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would agree with the Telegraph that Boris is better placed to hold the strong Leave redwall seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales from Labour than Rishi is.

    However I would say that Sunak is better placed to hold the bluewall seats in the South of England from the LDs than Johnson. Sunak might also do a bit better in London now than Johnson, especially in seats with a high Hindu population and in Scotland too Sunak would do a little better than Johnson.

    Overall therefore not much difference. Johnson might also reduce leakage to RefUK but Sunak would reduce leakage to the LDs. Both however would do better than Truss would have had she remained Tory leader and PM when the Tories really were facing annihilation

    Have you never heard the expression which begins “Fool me once…”
    Most of the electorate have.

    Johnson is just another desperate fantasy at this point.
    Good morning

    Dorries and the Telegraph are in denial if they think Johnson is the answer to the conservative woes

    Sunak has achieved stability which is a good place to be in at present, and as he resists high public sector wage demands, and takes the flak, we are more likely to see a quicker reduction in inflation because he stands firm which is in everyone's interests

    Furthermore he is the only conservative who may mitigate the 2024 result though I expect Starmer to become PM but sadly I do not see much changing even if he does

    My eldest son and his wife are here from Vancouver and he holds dual Kiwi/UK,citizenship and he said that free movement between New Zealand and Australia applies but there is no entitlement to any benefits for those taking advantage of this free movement.

    What a good idea for the UK
    It would be a good idea but the Australian government is resistant as with higher gdp per capita and a sunnier climate there are likely to be more UK migrants taking advantage of free movement to Australia than the reverse (certainly outside London)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Nigelb said:

    Back on track: #Germany is heading into 2023 with #gas reserves close to 90%. We could manage an extremely cold January/February now. Storages may end up at >70% in March. Essentially, we are already solving the problem of next winter these days.
    https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1607683259961573377

    Brilliant news, and very lucky to have such a mild winter in Europe. The question for me though, is how much demand destruction has there already been in European industry? It's less about Germans not switching their heating on, and more about German industry deciding energy prices are too high and either packing up for the winter or packing the whole thing in altogether. There may be enough gas, but how much harm has already been done by high energy prices? (The same question goes for the UK, to be honest).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Tres said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    prior to 97 there was a push to get a label on Blair - Bambi/Demon Eyes etc. none of it cut through and New Labour managed to get Murdoch on side and the 5 pledges thing was sufficiently bland not to cause alarm. Major's government spent 3 years running on fumes.
    Sunak however is more charismatic and competent than Major and Starmer less charismatic and less centrist than Blair (even if more centrist than Corbyn)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,673
    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    Ah, I see your age has changed again. Today you're younger than me.
    More faces than the town clock
  • Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    Wow a GE before Sunday
    Ah good spot!

    Replace 2023 for 2024

    And 2022 for 2023.

    But the general tone on here is getting a macho and bit bear-pit so I will gracefully exit stage left, hopefully not pursued by the aforementioned.

    Have a nice day everyone and DO be nice to one another. Stop before posting and ask yourself, 'is this really necessary?' and 'is this really kind?' If it isn't, then maybe amend it.

    Love and peace to you all.

    xx
    I would just say gently to you, you should practice that which you preach
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
  • HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would agree with the Telegraph that Boris is better placed to hold the strong Leave redwall seats in the North, the Midlands and Wales from Labour than Rishi is.

    However I would say that Sunak is better placed to hold the bluewall seats in the South of England from the LDs than Johnson. Sunak might also do a bit better in London now than Johnson, especially in seats with a high Hindu population and in Scotland too Sunak would do a little better than Johnson.

    Overall therefore not much difference. Johnson might also reduce leakage to RefUK but Sunak would reduce leakage to the LDs. Both however would do better than Truss would have had she remained Tory leader and PM when the Tories really were facing annihilation

    Have you never heard the expression which begins “Fool me once…”
    Most of the electorate have.

    Johnson is just another desperate fantasy at this point.
    Good morning

    Dorries and the Telegraph are in denial if they think Johnson is the answer to the conservative woes

    Sunak has achieved stability which is a good place to be in at present, and as he resists high public sector wage demands, and takes the flak, we are more likely to see a quicker reduction in inflation because he stands firm which is in everyone's interests

    Furthermore he is the only conservative who may mitigate the 2024 result though I expect Starmer to become PM but sadly I do not see much changing even if he does

    My eldest son and his wife are here from Vancouver and he holds dual Kiwi/UK,citizenship and he said that free movement between New Zealand and Australia applies but there is no entitlement to any benefits for those taking advantage of this free movement.

    What a good idea for the UK
    It would be a good idea but the Australian government is resistant as with higher gdp per capita and a sunnier climate there are likely to be more UK migrants taking advantage of free movement to Australia than the reverse (certainly outside London)
    I may have misled on my comment

    I meant what a good idea for free movement between UK and UK not Australia
  • HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    Sunak won't call the next general election until Spring 2024 at the
    earliest, maybe even as late as December 2024 or January 2025.

    He will want time for Hunt to reduce the deficit and get some tax cuts for average earners in before he calls the general election
    Have you been paying attention? The best the government can hope for is to not bring in some of the tax rises already on the books from the near horizon to the far horizon.

    (I'm sure the government would go for January 2025 if it weren't for Christmas getting in the way, so late autumn 2024 it is.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614
    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    Ah, I see your age has changed again. Today you're younger than me.
    Tempus Flexibile
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    Sunak won't call the next general election until Spring 2024 at the
    earliest, maybe even as late as December 2024 or January 2025.

    He will want time for Hunt to reduce the deficit and get some tax cuts for average earners in before he calls the general election
    Have you been paying attention? The best the government can hope for is to not bring in some of the tax rises already on the books from the near horizon to the far horizon.

    (I'm sure the government would go for January 2025 if it weren't for Christmas getting in the way, so late autumn 2024 it is.)
    The next politically interesting moment in the new year, will (hopefully) be the fall in inflation across most of the developed world.

    This will really kick in around March, when Europe is through the winter and the effects of increasing LNG supply hitting full storage.

    That’s providing that Xi doesn’t start WWIII - the Chinese supply chain disruptions due to COVID are baked in already.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    edited December 2022

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.

    Edit, anecdotally I have been astonished by the number of people I have heard of who have been ill with Covid over the Christmas period. To my knowledge they had all been vaccinated, often had Covid before and yet they were quite ill, if not requiring hospital treatment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614
    malcolmg said:

    Driver said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    Ah, I see your age has changed again. Today you're younger than me.
    More faces than the town clock
    7/10 - signs of a return to form.

    I’m starting to think hat where you go wrong is when you stamp on the rage pedal. You are over swinging with the bat. More technique, less brute force?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.
    Cheers. Note the ‘neutralising antibodies’ in the first line.
    Actually, if people have had covid, it’s probably a good question as to whether further vaccination with the older vaccines does much, so I guess that’s the perspective.
    However in terms of the U.K. we are in good shape.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.
    Cheers. Note the ‘neutralising antibodies’ in the first line.
    Actually, if people have had covid, it’s probably a good question as to whether further vaccination with the older vaccines does much, so I guess that’s the perspective.
    However in terms of the U.K. we are in good shape.
    Yup - it’s the infection rate that is changing.


    [even with evidence from] Singapore and France [suggesting] that at least two of these variants [are less damaging than expected … — it appears that] COVID-19 vaccinations and prior infections can still reduce the risk for serious outcomes such as hospitalization and death, the researchers write [and the CDC concurs].
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    On topic:

    Oh, fffs.

    Yours sincerely,
    Con 19 voter
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.

    Edit, anecdotally I have been astonished by the number of people I have heard of who have been ill with Covid over the Christmas period. To my knowledge they had all been vaccinated, often had Covid before and yet they were quite ill, if not requiring hospital treatment.
    Yes, there is a lot about, but it’s heartening that in the main, they do not need hospital care. This is what it means when a pandemic is moving into endemic. People still get ill, but the severity is now much reduced.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.
    Cheers. Note the ‘neutralising antibodies’ in the first line.
    Actually, if people have had covid, it’s probably a good question as to whether further vaccination with the older vaccines does much, so I guess that’s the perspective.
    However in terms of the U.K. we are in good shape.
    When I got my last booster I was told that it had been modified to make it more effective against what were then the latest variants. I had a pretty adverse reaction to it so I hope it did some good in that respect. But we are constantly chasing a moving target and the pool of infection in China is now vast and deep. I do not think that we should be at all complacent about this.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Replace the words “Boris Johnson” with “Liz Truss” in the Telegraph article and they’re bang on! She’s on her way back, mark my words.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Morning all :)

    The fact some see tax cuts as the "answer" when the country continues to run a significant deficit and has to spend twice what it spends on defence just to manage the existing debt shows the disconnection between political rhetoric and economic reality.

    In essence, we have spent the last 40 years or so aspiring for European public services on an American or Anglo-American style taxation regime. It's indicative of the debate that current tax rates are called "growth destroying" by some even though many other European countries seem able to grow on higher individual and corporate tax takes.

    There's a valid argument about how Government has managed or mismanaged the money from tax receipts, asset sales etc but there's also a wider argument about attitudes to wealth and to the income disparities present.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.
    Cheers. Note the ‘neutralising antibodies’ in the first line.
    Actually, if people have had covid, it’s probably a good question as to whether further vaccination with the older vaccines does much, so I guess that’s the perspective.
    However in terms of the U.K. we are in good shape.
    When I got my last booster I was told that it had been modified to make it more effective against what were then the latest variants. I had a pretty adverse reaction to it so I hope it did some good in that respect. But we are constantly chasing a moving target and the pool of infection in China is now vast and deep. I do not think that we should be at all complacent about this.
    I’m not being complacent, just trying to explain why China is much worse off than we are. We’ve exposed everyone to covid, so future variants are significantly less threatening than in China, where many have not even been vaccinated and even if they have been it’s with the notably poor Chinese vaccines that are probably out of date now too. It’s important to appreciate the difference between neutralising antibodies and the rest of the immune response. Far too many people don’t and this led to hysteria on here as new variants started to drive waves of infection.
    We have updated our vaccines (both Pfiser and Moderna) but newer variants will keep emerging. Covid is proving to be a very mutable virus.
    I should also be wary of thinking China as a reservoir for variants. While there is a lot of infection there, covid is everywhere in the world. Significant variants often arise in people who have lengthy infections, such as the immune compromised, and recently some of the treatments for these people have been sown to induce mutations, and probably should be withdrawn from use.
    This is not about complacency, more about making sure people understand the situation. It’s not impossible that a new variant may arise that is much more serious, but Ebola could become a pandemic, or aliens might launch moon rocks at the Earth, or AI could set of nukes tomorrow.

    Covid isn’t over, but at the moment, for the vast majority of Brits, it’s an embuggerance, not a life threatening disease.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    The government has announced there will be a “metro mayor” for the entire North East.

    That’s quite a big “metro”.
  • Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    Tax evasion is illegal. You saying he's a criminal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The fact some see tax cuts as the "answer" when the country continues to run a significant deficit and has to spend twice what it spends on defence just to manage the existing debt shows the disconnection between political rhetoric and economic reality.

    In essence, we have spent the last 40 years or so aspiring for European public services on an American or Anglo-American style taxation regime. It's indicative of the debate that current tax rates are called "growth destroying" by some even though many other European countries seem able to grow on higher individual and corporate tax takes.

    There's a valid argument about how Government has managed or mismanaged the money from tax receipts, asset sales etc but there's also a wider argument about attitudes to wealth and to the income disparities present.

    Switzerland or Singapore provide excellent public services on a much lower tax take than the UK has now.

    Yes we need to cut the deficit and for now that means tightening public spending and the tax rates Hunt announced but longer term we should be aiming for lower rax rates

  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The fact some see tax cuts as the "answer" when the country continues to run a significant deficit and has to spend twice what it spends on defence just to manage the existing debt shows the disconnection between political rhetoric and economic reality.

    In essence, we have spent the last 40 years or so aspiring for European public services on an American or Anglo-American style taxation regime. It's indicative of the debate that current tax rates are called "growth destroying" by some even though many other European countries seem able to grow on higher individual and corporate tax takes.

    There's a valid argument about how Government has managed or mismanaged the money from tax receipts, asset sales etc but there's also a wider argument about attitudes to wealth and to the income disparities present.

    I think the only people in this thread who have suggested tax cuts have done so as a political idea for Sunak - something to give people something to vote for - not an economic one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    DougSeal said:

    Replace the words “Boris Johnson” with “Liz Truss” in the Telegraph article and they’re bang on! She’s on her way back, mark my words.

    Under Truss some polls had the Tories falling below 20% and heading for just 6 seats in one.

    Sunak has at least steadied the ship and taken the Tories back to 25 to 30%. Even if not yet matching the 30 to 35% the Conservatives were on under Boris before he resigned
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    Tax evasion is illegal. You saying he's a criminal?
    There is little difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance/minimisation except that one is legal and one isn’t. I don’t think Sunak has done the illegal one has he?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The fact some see tax cuts as the "answer" when the country continues to run a significant deficit and has to spend twice what it spends on defence just to manage the existing debt shows the disconnection between political rhetoric and economic reality.

    In essence, we have spent the last 40 years or so aspiring for European public services on an American or Anglo-American style taxation regime. It's indicative of the debate that current tax rates are called "growth destroying" by some even though many other European countries seem able to grow on higher individual and corporate tax takes.

    There's a valid argument about how Government has managed or mismanaged the money from tax receipts, asset sales etc but there's also a wider argument about attitudes to wealth and to the income disparities present.

    Switzerland or Singapore provide excellent public services on a much lower tax take than the UK has now.

    Yes we need to cut the deficit and for now that means tightening public spending and the tax rates Hunt announced but longer term we should be aiming for lower rax rates

    This would require the kind of reform of public services that would

    1) initially cost a lot
    2) upset the politicians
    3) upset management
    4) upset staff
    5) upset the Unions

    I think there may be a problem there
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    At the risk of going all @Leon early in the morning the US has now identified no less than 4 variants of Covid which seem to manage to ignore antibodies created by current vaccines: BQ.1, BQ1.1, XBB, and XBB.1

    With cases in China now running in excess of 1m new cases a day the likelihood of further variants that have similar characteristics is very high. We may find ourselves, once again, back in an almost pre-vaccine world. So far the effect of this has been offset by reduced severity since Omicron but a variant that is more potent simply cannot be ruled out.

    It seems to me that our government should be doing some careful analysis of what worked and what didn't in respect of preventative steps. The current inquiry seems to me, and I was speaking to someone involved in the Scottish branch of this yesterday, to be working on entirely the wrong time scale to address what might be fairly imminent problems.

    Hi David. What is the source of your story? I have no doubt it is referring neutralising antibodies, not the whole of the immune response to covid. In the U.K. we are in pretty good shape as we have high vaccine cover and have had almost everyone infected with covid. This leads to pretty broad cover in the round. The vaccines presented the spike protein to train the immune system so that when the infection hit there was a head start. Infection with the virus generates antibodies against the whole pathogen not just the spike. Hence mutation of the spike protein is less of an issue than if you are relying on just the vaccination to keep you safe.

    Hope that makes sense.
    One of the sources was this: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144119/--Markedly-reduced-protection-against-rising-BQ-1-BQ1-1-XBB-amp-XBB-1-COVID-subvariants and more specifically the articles referred to in it, particularly the Medscape one. It combined with a discussion yesterday with a participant in the inquiry whose observations frankly led the company present to wonder if there was any point in the inquiry at all.
    Cheers. Note the ‘neutralising antibodies’ in the first line.
    Actually, if people have had covid, it’s probably a good question as to whether further vaccination with the older vaccines does much, so I guess that’s the perspective.
    However in terms of the U.K. we are in good shape.
    When I got my last booster I was told that it had been modified to make it more effective against what were then the latest variants. I had a pretty adverse reaction to it so I hope it did some good in that respect. But we are constantly chasing a moving target and the pool of infection in China is now vast and deep. I do not think that we should be at all complacent about this.
    It certainly wouldn't hurt to up our game a bit. Our overall performance in terms of life expectancy following Covid has been decidedly mediocre - better than the US and Eastern Europe, but worse than other Western European countries.

    Life expectancy changes since COVID-19
  • Mr. Walker, ha, that's hilarious, especially given the politicians down south are dead against a mayor for the whole of Yorkshire.
  • @Stuartinromford

    200 seats is towards the upper end of the range I'm expecting the Conservatives to win at the next GE. 250 would be a roaring success and probably represents an upper limit.

    Otoh, if things go badly 100 or less is definitely possible. The floor is probably 2.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    The fact some see tax cuts as the "answer" when the country continues to run a significant deficit and has to spend twice what it spends on defence just to manage the existing debt shows the disconnection between political rhetoric and economic reality.

    In essence, we have spent the last 40 years or so aspiring for European public services on an American or Anglo-American style taxation regime. It's indicative of the debate that current tax rates are called "growth destroying" by some even though many other European countries seem able to grow on higher individual and corporate tax takes.

    There's a valid argument about how Government has managed or mismanaged the money from tax receipts, asset sales etc but there's also a wider argument about attitudes to wealth and to the income disparities present.

    Switzerland or Singapore provide excellent public services on a much lower tax take than the UK has now.

    Yes we need to cut the deficit and for now that means tightening public spending and the tax rates Hunt announced but longer term we should be aiming for lower rax rates

    Singapore is a city state.
    Switzerland is more interesting, although it is very rich of course and so perhaps a lower tax take is higher in absolute terms.

    Britain is at the lower end of peer economies in terms of tax take. The issue is perhaps who and what is taxed and how it is spent.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    That’s interesting, but there is a lot of scatter. What have Switzerland got wrong, for instance?
    The NHS is under a lot of stress, and the next few months will not be fun. Something needs to change (maybe employing more staff from overseas). I think that there have likely been a lot of missed diagnoses in the last three years and those chickens are coming home to roost.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Mr. Walker, ha, that's hilarious, especially given the politicians down south are dead against a mayor for the whole of Yorkshire.

    A mayor for a whole region is daft to me.
    But it seems that it was the only way to get both the north-tyners and the south-tyners on board, and that is to be welcomed.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 926

    The government has announced there will be a “metro mayor” for the entire North East.

    That’s quite a big “metro”.

    Well, it's certainly not a Mini Metro...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Singapore has low "taxes" but significant "forced saving" to self-insure against illness or deprivation in old age.
  • Heathener said:

    [...]

    2 years is a long time.

    It won't be 2 years.

    There is no way the Conservatives would survive the mauling in the media if they try to drag this out until the last possible minute. It will look so desperate and the electorate will send them the clear message in the polls. It would be political suicide.

    The latest this will go will be autumn 2023 and even that is less likely than spring 2023 but I don't entirely rule out 2022.
    You think there will be a leadership election in the next 3 days?

    Do you really expect people to take your predictions seriously on this site?
  • Mr. Walker, ha, that's hilarious, especially given the politicians down south are dead against a mayor for the whole of Yorkshire.

    They know me becoming Governor of Yorkshire is a stepping stone to me becoming the country's first Directly Elected Dictator.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited December 2022

    The government has announced there will be a “metro mayor” for the entire North East.

    That’s quite a big “metro”.

    Yep - it's frankly insane but unavoidable due to the politics that has occurred over the years.

    Northumbria and County Durham should be separate areas but the local councillors in both places didn't want to lose their "power" so voted against retaining control with their own mayor.

    The irony is that it's really just the North East Regional Assembly with Teesside separated out with limited powers.
  • HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Replace the words “Boris Johnson” with “Liz Truss” in the Telegraph article and they’re bang on! She’s on her way back, mark my words.

    Under Truss some polls had the Tories falling below 20% and heading for just 6 seats in one.

    Sunak has at least steadied the ship and taken the Tories back to 25 to 30%. Even if not yet matching the 30 to 35% the Conservatives were on under Boris before he resigned
    Boris didn't resign; he was forced out in ignominy because his constant lying had become too much for the voters.

    Boris was sacked. Nothing has changed to consider re-employing him as PM.
    Boris Johnson lied about knowingly putting a pervert into a position of authority in the Whips Office and then made ministers repeat that lie.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    The government has announced there will be a “metro mayor” for the entire North East.

    That’s quite a big “metro”.

    Is H'Angus the Monkey doing much these days? Elected thrice before the post was abolished, if I recall.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    checklist said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    Tax evasion is illegal. You saying he's a criminal?
    There is little difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance/minimisation except that one is legal and one isn’t. I don’t think Sunak has done the illegal one has he?
    Bit like saying there is little difference between being alive and dead, except that one involves breathing and one doesn't.
    I take it you don’t approve of ISAs then…
  • Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    Tax evasion is illegal. You saying he's a criminal?
    There is little difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance/minimisation except that one is legal and one isn’t. I don’t think Sunak has done the illegal one has he?
    He's a fool if he has, but I don't think he's a fool.

    Otoh I expect he has often engaged in tax avoidance. I have and so have most taxpayers.

    I really don't have a problem with people exploiting the law as long as it applies equally to us all.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,161
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    The Telegraph has gone batshit crazy. Article after article is off the wall. A reactionary rump of rabid right-wingers dribbling into their dotage.

    On the other hand, I fear Johnson more than any other leader. He's toxic but he would be the only one who could drag the tories to c. 200 MPs at the next election.

    A lot of the traditional right wing papers seems to have gone “off the rails”. Presumably that is what happens when you increasingly cater for an older readership which increasingly has little reflection on reality
    Yes I've noticed the same. I'm trying to recall if the same thing happened in '97 but I was too young to remember it well enough.

    I think what happens is the growing realisation that a sufficient majority of the country are moving on (and probably already have), so you're left sounding increasingly desperate and shrill, preaching to an ever decreasing circle of true believers.
    prior to 97 there was a push to get a label on Blair - Bambi/Demon Eyes etc. none of it cut through and New Labour managed to get Murdoch on side and the 5 pledges thing was sufficiently bland not to cause alarm. Major's government spent 3 years running on fumes.
    Sunak however is more charismatic and competent than Major and Starmer less charismatic and less centrist than Blair (even if more centrist than Corbyn)
    Really? Can't say I've noted Sunak oozing of either.
    kyf_100 said:

    The government has announced there will be a “metro mayor” for the entire North East.

    That’s quite a big “metro”.

    Is H'Angus the Monkey doing much these days? Elected thrice before the post was abolished, if I recall.
    Left to go to Australia after he got a Tory MP.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    eek said:

    The government has announced there will be a “metro mayor” for the entire North East.

    That’s quite a big “metro”.

    Yep - it's frankly insane but unavoidable due to the politics that has occurred over the years.

    Northumbria and County Durham should be separate areas but the local councillors in both places didn't want to lose their "power" so voted against retaining control with their own mayor.

    The irony is that it's really just the North East Regional Assembly with Teesside separated out with limited powers.
    The thing that the people of the region thought they'd voted against?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,614

    checklist said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    Tax evasion is illegal. You saying he's a criminal?
    There is little difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance/minimisation except that one is legal and one isn’t. I don’t think Sunak has done the illegal one has he?
    Bit like saying there is little difference between being alive and dead, except that one involves breathing and one doesn't.
    I take it you don’t approve of ISAs then…
    A friend, a financial adviser, reduced a Tax Gap clown to purple faced rage, by pointing out that -

    1) the “tax gap” was nearly entirely pensions and ISAs.
    2) that he, the financial adviser, was legally obligated, in quite direct terms, to advise his clients to use both.
  • checklist said:

    Heathener said:

    Jonathan said:

    The main thing this shows is the sad decline of the Telegraph as a serious newspaper.

    If Sunak has any sense (and whist he has massive failings as a politician, he's clearly sensible), Johnson doesn't survive the Privileges Committee report.

    Sunak doesn’t seem to have strength or depth in his support. More tolerated than loved. He’s more chairman than leader. That may not be a bad thing for government, but he does appear to be vulnerable.
    He is [...] honest and reasonable [...]
    He's thoroughly dishonest. A tax evading multi-millionaire non-dom.

    And it's highly questionable whether he's reasonable.
    Tax evasion is illegal. You saying he's a criminal?
    There is little difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance/minimisation except that one is legal and one isn’t. I don’t think Sunak has done the illegal one has he?
    Bit like saying there is little difference between being alive and dead, except that one involves breathing and one doesn't.
    I take it you don’t approve of ISAs then…
    Nor of non sequiturs.
  • @Stuartinromford

    200 seats is towards the upper end of the range I'm expecting the Conservatives to win at the next GE. 250 would be a roaring success and probably represents an upper limit.

    Otoh, if things go badly 100 or less is definitely possible. The floor is probably 2.

    Please don't tell me you've drunk the kool-aid too, Peter?
This discussion has been closed.