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LAB now a 67% betting chance to win most seats – politicalbetting.com
LAB now a 67% betting chance to win most seats – politicalbetting.com
Inevitably given the way the polls have moved to LAB in the last couple of months that the party is now rated as a 67% betting chance to win most seats at the next general election
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It either has to be a challenge system or instant decision.
Cricket and tennis players immediately challenge a decision. So we all know, it might not be a wicket etc.
Happy days.
If you look at the wikipedia graph, the conservative vote has been on a downward trend since 2019 at an average of about 0.4% per month. Blips (but reverting to trend) were the initial Covid outbreak in March 2020, then the delivery of the vaccines in 2021 and partygate at the start of 2022. Will Sunak as pm enable a reversion to trend, or better?
Labour lead is eighteen points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 30% (+5)
Lab 48% (-3)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Other 12% (-3)
Fieldwork: 24th - 28th November 2022
Sample: 1,062 GB adults
(Changes from 17th - 19th November 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1597283660004470784/photo/1
Only France have really put two performances together.
Unknown unknowns.
Gonna be less boring than you think.
"It goes back to the simple fact that this is a part of the world that has its own set of values. It is a part of the world - not Qatar, I'm talking about the Arab world.
"So if you're making a statement here in Qatar or specifically addressed to Qatar, and by extension the Islamic world, or course I take issue with that. It leaves a very divisive message."
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/63785482
For Bannon it was FBI director Christopher Wray and government biologist Anthony Fauci, and beheading and heads on spikes. For Cummings it's government special advisers who have attacked science funding, and hanging them from lampposts in Downing Street.
His statement made me realise two things:
1. he thinks he's coming back;
2. he won't come back.
He may get a job in the US for PE2024 though. Goodness knows for which candidate if so. For some reason he seems very interested in AOC. I don't know enough about US politics to know the extent that what's happening in one major party affects what's happening in the other in the run-up to the nomination of candidates.
Scary.
You can't help thinking that one day VAR will disallow a goal for something that happened on the coach on its way to the stadium.
This is interesting on the terrible Thanksgiving weekend box office.
https://www.indiewire.com/2022/11/worst-thanksgiving-weekend-box-office-history-1234785622/
I haven’t even heard of some of these, there’s a massive marketing failure here somewhere, among other issues.
I think the only film I've seen in the cinema this year is Elvis.
It’s possible that studios are struggling to compete with the amount of money that (until recently at least) has been thrown around by the streamers.
There has been a lot of discussion around the effects of winter on operations. I thought I’d outline a couple of aspects of winter fighting that are both critical and often under appreciated. BLUF: Winter will likely favour the Ukrainian military. 1/17
https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1596698941852033025
First thing on a Saturday morning with the 9yo is just about tolerable when there is an occasional film out they might like.
I had to apply for a second current account today, for various family reasons I won't go into. As part of it, I made the distinctly unpleasant discovery that Lloyds have no meaningful security measures in place on existing customers registering for online banking. In effect, somebody with my name, knowing my account details and phone number, could register for online banking and empty my account in 15 minutes without anyone noticing.
I've always set my face against online personal banking because I thought it was so insecure, but I never dreamed it would be so bad that I'd be vulnerable to being hacked even if I didn't have it.
Are there any banks out there that do have proper security on setting up online accounts so they can't be accessed by any spotty teenager with a laptop? Because if so, I would like to move to them.
(What was worse was Lloyd's, when I rang up to complain, tried to pretend that their systems were very secure because they were encrypted. Which may be true, but is also irrelevant if they're going to make personation so easy.)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11478259/Tony-Blair-tells-LGBT-campaigners-not-disrespect-World-Cup-hosts-Qatar.html
They are crap films.
Also, the window of opportunity to see them is sometimes too short - like 2-3 weeks. Not enough for word to get around and diaries to be rejigged with babysitters if it's good and worth seeing.
Low budget stuff like many horror movies by people like Blumhouse can be good or bad, but doing badly at the box office doesn't matter so much as you'll probably still make a profit, and the big successes will pay for another 15 movies, rather than banking it all on a franchise.
But you don't need to go that low, just more mid budget.
https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1597208466703032320?s=46&t=kIx7ITW3UXYaGg-ixUfZ2w
I don’t think this is just a UK problem, but the Tories seem unaware of the issue, and Labour have no answers either.
The problem is not just money.
I don't see any solutions being offered.
I have two small kids, and literally went to the cinema two weekends ago. Never bloody heard of “Strange World” until that article.
The Marvelisation film has exploded film budgets, which in turn has meant studios have played safe to the point of insipidity.
Then you have Covid, and the rise of home cinema. I don’t have a TV but I understand that the average screen size is now massive.
https://www.which.co.uk/money/banking/banking-security-and-new-ways-to-pay/online-banking-security/how-safe-is-online-banking-ayvfj7p8cctc
Arguably, if it's secure after that it's almost worse, as it means there will be one way of stopping them.
It’s pretty arrogant to invite half the world to your country as guests, and then tell them them have to abide by your irrational prejudices.
Even if you’ve paid god knows how many millions in bribes for the privilege.
But from memory, it's usual to make checks such as sending letters to your registered address.
https://www.lloydsbank.com/online-banking/how-to-register.html
This might not be what you want to hear, but you're probably better off embracing internet banking than continuing to set your face against it. It's very mature technology now.
I said it on here the other day and the UK state sector defenders were out in force, the solution is to sack 50% of admin and other non front line roles, ban all consulting and hiring of day rate public sector consultants, put in place a hiring freeze and change job roles to cover whatever the 50% of people who got sacked were supposed to be doing, give the people who stick around a 30-40% pay rise, pump the rest of the money into front line recruitment.
It's almost a certainty that we wouldn't notice the difference and after a few years we'd see big improvements in output because there's more money for front line services and less being eaten up by the unproductive paper pushers.
You could probably repeat that process a few times and hollow out the DfE to give teachers a bigger slice of the education budget and start to chip away at the teacher shortage, do it at the NHS so that we get more capital investment, payrises and more recruitment among front line staff. Do it at the MoD and fund a proper military.
Osborne and Cameron had it right when they chipped away at the state sector, May and Boris has let the state grow to a completely out of control level and it is stifling output and the economy as these bureaucrats invent rules and processes to justify their continued employment.
My current beef is, first direct insist on displaying my shareholding account balance on the phone banking app. Now I ain't no rockefeller, but there's enough there to make a 3rd world kidnapper start cutting major body parts off me. I have just learned how to hide the banking app on my phone. Trouble is, it took me about 3 minutes and anyone who knows how to do it, can immediately tell that the phone has hidden apps on it, and, again, make with the body part threats.
NEW: Several candidates have turned down role of Rishi Sunak’s ethics adviser after he refused to offer enhanced powers
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1597267601033678848
Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself
https://www.ft.com/content/e4c4fd61-341e-4f5b-9a46-796fc3bdcb03
I think the problem is that Covid has basically fucked management efficiency. I know I sound like a Daily Mail reader, but the fact that Sheryl needs to take a dog for a walk is not a good reason for not turning up to the all staff.
I don’t blame Sheryl by the way, it’s a systemic issue, and not limited to the public sector. I also see it in the collapse of service from HSBC UK.
I am voluntarily sin-binning myself.
As to your specifics, the argument for banning all consultancy is an interesting one. I certainly think having to pay them up to £1500 per day is an obscene waste of public money but bringing in specialist knowledge to an organisation where it doesn't exist is hardly the monopoly of the public sector.
A local Council is an amalgam of businesses across a wide range of sectors, much less homogenous than most private companies. Yes, the average public sector authority doesn't have to worry about shareholders or a profit and can operate to margins most private firms cannot but the fact remains it's a lot of ground to cover and often in areas which private companies can't touch because there's no money in it for them.
I'd also add one of the biggest problems for local Government is central Government which ties the hands of Councils through capping and by imposing regulatory responsibilities on a whole range of areas driven by legislation (NOT EU legislation but good old fashioned UK state interventionism).
I'd argue devolving real financial authority and responsibility from Westminster would be a much better issue than your notion of culling "unproductive and overpaid types".
I'm pretty sure, for example, that City types get way more admin support than schools manage with.
I got it in six guesses. A couple of lucky guesses and a hunch.
Private sector efficiency depends on how competitive the market is.
For example, Verizon my ISP (I’m currently on the phone to them) is notoriously shite perhaps because the market is effectively a duopoly.
Max’s comments on forecourt competition are highly relevant. Never mind the public sector, the private sector, and I feel it is especially the case in the UK, is full of cosy little cartels.
I think Thatcher got this, but no Tory since really has. Labour barely understands what a private market is.
‘Mature technology’ is not a reason for doing anything. It may just mean they’ve been lucky for a long time. Chernobyl, the Titanic and the Hindenburg were all mature technology.
If people are fucking about at home in a way they wouldn't in the office then, obviously, they don't have enough to do and their management is shit.
It's a really old skool way of working when you need to be constantly (visually) supervised to be trusted to do anything, and suggests a really poor management culture.
Rumour has it though that higher ups in Disney want to gut the film animation department.
There was an interesting comment this morning about the declining birth rate. This will have an impact (as it did before) on education and many other aspects of public sector provision.
If we reach the point where schools cannot function due to declining pupil numbers, we will see more mergers which will in turn release school land and buildings for possible residential redevelopment.
Some will also remember the furore over school playing field sales in the 1990s. As a point of information, when a school becomes an Academy, the land and buildings are held by the Academy Trust on a long lease but only while the Academy is using them - if the school closes, the land and property revert to the local Council so again there may be opportunities to redevelop school sites.
The corollary of that is this works well until the birth rate starts rising again and there's no capacity in the school system.