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Starmer now a 74% betting chance to be PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    Ken Clarke coming up on Newsnight.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    Ominous for the Prime Minister. Tonight even the Daily Mail can’t find a positive headline to write about her, warning she has just 17 days to save her premiership. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1580674507035275264/photo/1
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    When one of the tabloids actually turns her into a wet lettuce, then she'll know she's hit rock bottom!
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,805
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Ominous for the Prime Minister. Tonight even the Daily Mail can’t find a positive headline to write about her, warning she has just 17 days to save her premiership. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1580674507035275264/photo/1

    NHS will be long gone by then.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    These "free market" fukwits still don't understand how markets work

    A counter-offensive is underway. Loyal Tory MPs saw Truss face-to-face in No10 today urging her to stick with her tax cuts and not backtrack. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474

    Foxy said:

    The North Evington (Leicester) by-election tonight is an interesting one. The area is heavily Asian, a mixture of Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs in that order. The Labour candidate is a supporter of Modi and RSS, with the Tory candidate a close second last time.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the Tory gain here. There are some strange politics in the area at the moment. This area was one of the centres of the recent communal violence.


    Anyone voicing support for a Fascist like Modi should be thrown out of the Labour Party. Certainly not standing as a candidate.
    Not just Modi, but the RSS too. The Hindutva brownshirts.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited October 2022
    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    Well, at least we'll still need them to provide some light whilst we bump round the house in the dark
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    "severe recession, this winter" says Ken Clarke.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Christopher Chope is a clueless fxckwit !

    Discuss .....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    Tory MPs at war tonight over who could be a unity candidate…

    Latest from the death cult: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20102425/tory-mps-war-replace-liz-truss-replace/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    eek said:


    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..

    He's just finishing a book on Truss: out xmas. Looks like it will be straight to the landfill skip.

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    Scott_xP said:

    These "free market" fukwits still don't understand how markets work

    A counter-offensive is underway. Loyal Tory MPs saw Truss face-to-face in No10 today urging her to stick with her tax cuts and not backtrack. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/

    What I most enjoy about this is that Truss and co have basically barged in with an agenda that says "hey, we are the most pro market, libertarian, pro business kinda guys you can find" and the actual markets have responded with "f*** no, do you guys not understand how markets actually work?"

    The difference between ideology and practice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    Tory MP Christopher Chope on #Newsnight: “She’s not going to do a u-Turn. What we’re experiencing is the anti-growth coalition in full cry.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1580675825782861824
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    These "free market" fukwits still don't understand how markets work

    A counter-offensive is underway. Loyal Tory MPs saw Truss face-to-face in No10 today urging her to stick with her tax cuts and not backtrack. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/

    What I most enjoy about this is that Truss and co have basically barged in with an agenda that says "hey, we are the most pro market, libertarian, pro business kinda guys you can find" and the actual markets have responded with "f*** no, do you guys not understand how markets actually work?"

    The difference between ideology and practice.
    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1575419240592580608
  • Scott_xP said:

    Tory MPs at war tonight over who could be a unity candidate…

    Latest from the death cult: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20102425/tory-mps-war-replace-liz-truss-replace/

    Its difficult.
    Head says back Grant Shapps
    Heart says back Michael Green
    Some idiots support Sebastian Fox
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    eek said:


    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..

    He's just finishing a book on Truss: out xmas. Looks like it will be straight to the landfill skip.

    That’s volume 1 - how she got to be PM

    Volume 2 is how it went downhill from the second she arrived…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    edited October 2022
    eek said:


    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..

    He's worried his new book might not be so topical:

    "Sep 20
    🚨 Delighted to say ‘Out of the Blue: The inside story of Liz Truss and her astonishing rise to power’ by myself and @JAHeale for @HarperCollins will be out for Christmas.. "


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1572150471590301696?s=20&t=XZiaqW-lz_Rl9c0MTOO9wQ
  • Ok, Truss is fecked, she has the full backing of Douglas Ross.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MP Christopher Chope on #Newsnight: “She’s not going to do a u-Turn. What we’re experiencing is the anti-growth coalition in full cry.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1580675825782861824

    Another from the kool aid gang . Delusional and the next time some politician accuses someone of being in the anti-growth coalition I want to just slap them .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    Truss is useless, obviously.

    But, the horror porn is overblown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    nico679 said:

    Christopher Chope is a clueless fxckwit !

    Discuss .....

    No discussion seeks necessary.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    eek said:


    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..

    He's worried his new book might not be so topical:

    "Sep 20
    🚨 Delighted to say ‘Out of the Blue: The inside story of Liz Truss and her astonishing rise to power’ by myself and @JAHeale for @HarperCollins will be out for Christmas.. "


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1572150471590301696?s=20&t=XZiaqW-lz_Rl9c0MTOO9wQ
    Probably will be Truss out for Christmas instead now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894

    eek said:


    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..

    He's worried his new book might not be so topical:

    "Sep 20
    🚨 Delighted to say ‘Out of the Blue: The inside story of Liz Truss and her astonishing rise to power’ by myself and @JAHeale for @HarperCollins will be out for Christmas.. "


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1572150471590301696?s=20&t=XZiaqW-lz_Rl9c0MTOO9wQ
    Collectors' item

    Imagine him in 40 years on the vidphone

    "Do you have a copy of Out of the Blue:The inside story of Liz Truss and her astonishing rise to power?"

    "Oh, you do!"
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    Sean_F said:

    DJ41 said:

    Latest from D Cummings, in a piece entitled "Hundreds of Auschwitz's [sic] in a hour":

    "It’s roughly 100% irrelevant to UK/US interests whether eastern UKR is controlled by the Putin-oligarchs-KGB-mafia or the Zelensky-oligarchs-KGB-mafia.

    ‘International law and the rules based order’? You mean the ‘rules based order’ that applied to us invading Iraq?

    ‘Humanitarian concern’? You mean the ‘concern’ we showed when millions got slaughtered in the middle of Africa, and we sat on our asses watching TV?

    ‘His tanks will keep going across Europe’? You mean the army that has failed so badly in Ukraine is going to defeat the whole of Europe and America using conventional weapons?

    (...)

    Every Deep State person I ask says the same thing: there is no fucking plan, the idiots in No10 just keep saying Putin must fail, Truss wants us to recapture Crimea starting World War III, the MoD has got even shitter than ever in 2022.

    (...)

    But now Professors at Oxbridge and Harvard are happy to tweet gloatingly drone footage of Russian ‘orcs’ being blown to pieces, resembling the 4chan Nazi teens they’re normally so down on. Before the war, Congress defined Azov as a neo-Nazi organisation and banned funds going to it — now our 4chan Profs retweet their propaganda while we shovel zillions to them and rebrand them as … anti-Putin so … anti-Nazi!

    People who suggest that threatening hundreds of Auschwitz’s in an hour is justified only by the most existential of interests are denounced as KGB agents and insufficiently full of hate for the enemy, sometimes by the same crowd who called me ‘mad’ for saying Putin may have blown up the Moscow flats himself to justify the Chechnya war.

    (...)

    I’ve been called mad for 20 years. My warnings, year after year, that our Idiocracy could blunder into pandemics and nuclear escalation was seen as so mad it wasn’t worth arguing with. I didn’t expect that the evidence finally convincing elite media and academia that I’m insane and/or a Putin-agent, would be my suggestion that JFK’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis (including rejecting military advice to escalate and bomb) is highly relevant to avoiding hundreds of Auschwitz’s, and that I would finally be seen as ‘beyond the pale’ for saying things like ‘welcome Russians fleeing Putin, don’t ban them from sports and arts, aren’t we supposed to oppose inflicting punishments on ethnic/national groups simply for belonging to such a group?’.
    "

    A problem is that DC seems to think the reason the current line is being taken is the idiocy of those who parrot it. It's not, though. They'll parrot whatever they're told. But 1-2 quibbles aside, all minor, he is right on the essential. And it's good to see that someone else remembers the Moscow flat bombs of 1999, which considerably assisted with Putin's ascendance to the presidency. ISTR Blair told Putin hey we know you understand our 911 pain because it's just like yours after those bombs. Funny how nobody ever called him a Putin stooge...

    I find it hard to understand Cummings' word salad.

    But, I think he's saying, he wants Putin to win.
    I wouldn't say that. But as he points out he effectively sees the two sides as morally equivalent which is frankly repugnant. Not least since he says Putin may have deliberately murdered hundreds of his own citizens so he could have an excuse for a war in Chechnya. I must be missing the moment when Zelensky blew up residential buildings in Kiev, blamed it on the Donbass separatists and flattened the whole place. You have to feel for the Ukrainians, some people really have it in for them.
  • Ok, Truss is fecked, she has the full backing of Douglas Ross.

    Tonight. DRoss likely to do a full reverse tomorrow. As he did with Johnson. Then perhaps back again, supporting Truss again on the day she is finally removed.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Tory Edward Costello: "What matters in politics is winning the next election".

    No! What matters is governing responsibly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    Update: Tory MPs in general now also members of the anti growth coalition. More as this develops. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1580675825782861824
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,878

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    I believe the word "grandee" significies that they no longer have a career.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Scott_xP said:

    I think Liz's only option now is some kind of put-up-or-shut-up manoeuvre: say she'll resign if her critics can unite around a single chosen candidate, otherwise she will go on and on. What else is there to do?

    the only thing she can do is sack her entire team
    No-one would replace those being sacked.

    Who wants that fortnight on their CV?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    It's not so much social implications as information ones. I don't have a landline anymore, so if the power goes out, and I lose the broadband and the mobile phone signal, I've only got a battery radio, or newspapers at the corner shop, to get information on how long the power will be out for.

    Back when I had the landline there would be a phone number to call to get updates.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    👀 What is the Cabinet thinking? Tel reports tomorrow Ben Wallace raised his concerns about mortgage rates soaring + the need to protect people at political cabinet on Tues. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    eek said:


    Harry Cole

    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    57m
    LOL. It was mad enough when it was on conhome two days ago. Some Tory clowns really do appear to have a death wish.

    You would have thought that with exclusive access to no 10 Harry Cole would be happy with being the lead journalist on the shortest, most disastrous PM of all time..

    He's worried his new book might not be so topical:

    "Sep 20
    🚨 Delighted to say ‘Out of the Blue: The inside story of Liz Truss and her astonishing rise to power’ by myself and @JAHeale for @HarperCollins will be out for Christmas.. "


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1572150471590301696?s=20&t=XZiaqW-lz_Rl9c0MTOO9wQ
    That's my enemies' gifts sorted. Cheers!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423

    Ok, Truss is fecked, she has the full backing of Douglas Ross.

    Depends if this is the first, second or third time she's had the full backing. I lost count of the pivots on Johnson.

    Ross was rightly applauded on here for being early to call out Johnson. Threw away a strong position, which was a bit weird given he had to utilise Davidson at the SP election to retain Tory voters. Did he forget that Scons are quite distinct from English Tories now?
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Sean_F said:

    DJ41 said:

    Latest from D Cummings, in a piece entitled "Hundreds of Auschwitz's [sic] in a hour":

    "It’s roughly 100% irrelevant to UK/US interests whether eastern UKR is controlled by the Putin-oligarchs-KGB-mafia or the Zelensky-oligarchs-KGB-mafia.

    ‘International law and the rules based order’? You mean the ‘rules based order’ that applied to us invading Iraq?

    ‘Humanitarian concern’? You mean the ‘concern’ we showed when millions got slaughtered in the middle of Africa, and we sat on our asses watching TV?

    ‘His tanks will keep going across Europe’? You mean the army that has failed so badly in Ukraine is going to defeat the whole of Europe and America using conventional weapons?

    (...)

    Every Deep State person I ask says the same thing: there is no fucking plan, the idiots in No10 just keep saying Putin must fail, Truss wants us to recapture Crimea starting World War III, the MoD has got even shitter than ever in 2022.

    (...)

    But now Professors at Oxbridge and Harvard are happy to tweet gloatingly drone footage of Russian ‘orcs’ being blown to pieces, resembling the 4chan Nazi teens they’re normally so down on. Before the war, Congress defined Azov as a neo-Nazi organisation and banned funds going to it — now our 4chan Profs retweet their propaganda while we shovel zillions to them and rebrand them as … anti-Putin so … anti-Nazi!

    People who suggest that threatening hundreds of Auschwitz’s in an hour is justified only by the most existential of interests are denounced as KGB agents and insufficiently full of hate for the enemy, sometimes by the same crowd who called me ‘mad’ for saying Putin may have blown up the Moscow flats himself to justify the Chechnya war.

    (...)

    I’ve been called mad for 20 years. My warnings, year after year, that our Idiocracy could blunder into pandemics and nuclear escalation was seen as so mad it wasn’t worth arguing with. I didn’t expect that the evidence finally convincing elite media and academia that I’m insane and/or a Putin-agent, would be my suggestion that JFK’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis (including rejecting military advice to escalate and bomb) is highly relevant to avoiding hundreds of Auschwitz’s, and that I would finally be seen as ‘beyond the pale’ for saying things like ‘welcome Russians fleeing Putin, don’t ban them from sports and arts, aren’t we supposed to oppose inflicting punishments on ethnic/national groups simply for belonging to such a group?’.
    "

    A problem is that DC seems to think the reason the current line is being taken is the idiocy of those who parrot it. It's not, though. They'll parrot whatever they're told. But 1-2 quibbles aside, all minor, he is right on the essential. And it's good to see that someone else remembers the Moscow flat bombs of 1999, which considerably assisted with Putin's ascendance to the presidency. ISTR Blair told Putin hey we know you understand our 911 pain because it's just like yours after those bombs. Funny how nobody ever called him a Putin stooge...

    I find it hard to understand Cummings' word salad.

    But, I think he's saying, he wants Putin to win.

    "Deep State" is one of those expressions like "Judaeo-Masonic", or "Zionazi", that marks the rantings of a nutter.
    Please look again at the very first sentence of what I quote and consider whether it supports your interpretation of his overall attitude as being a desire that Putin (or even Russia) should win.

    Elsewhere in the same piece he suggests that if Putin gets assassinated as many supporters of the US and British line seem to want, his successor may not exactly be an "AOC lookalike", but rather more of a "Kadyrov lookalike".
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    stjohn said:

    Tory Edward Costello: "What matters in politics is winning the next election".

    No! What matters is governing responsibly.

    I regret to inform you this comment has been flagged as potentially aiding and abetting the Anti Growth Coalition.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Absolutely agree.

    We've been doomporn obsessed.

    Meanwhile I've just had my best ever quarter by a mile....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    edited October 2022
    There is not a Tory 'unity candidate' against whom there won't be a sizeable number of Tory MPs rebelling.

    Death spiral. Tories are approaching the event horizon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    They’re going to go for Johnson aren’t they?
  • Watching Question Time trying to see which members of the audience are going to back Truss. So far, none...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    The problem with Cummings (and I admit I'm guessing here) is he has a massive ego and is determined to be the smartest person in the room. Unfortunately the British establishment aren't convinced and instead deem him to be a t***. Hence the resentment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    I guess they are if you are a trader.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340

    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    It's not so much social implications as information ones. I don't have a landline anymore, so if the power goes out, and I lose the broadband and the mobile phone signal, I've only got a battery radio, or newspapers at the corner shop, to get information on how long the power will be out for.

    Back when I had the landline there would be a phone number to call to get updates.
    There are safeguarding issues. Almost everything is done by mobile.
    How would a missing child be reported? By email.
    If you are off site?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    It's not so much social implications as information ones. I don't have a landline anymore, so if the power goes out, and I lose the broadband and the mobile phone signal, I've only got a battery radio, or newspapers at the corner shop, to get information on how long the power will be out for.

    Back when I had the landline there would be a phone number to call to get updates.
    Most people don't even have a battery radio. If people lose access to the internet for a few hours, and their TV won't switch on, they are literally - and figuratively - in the dark.

    The closest thing for a lot of people is going out to their cars and switching the car radio on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474

    "severe recession, this winter" says Ken Clarke.

    Surely rapid growth?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Jonathan said:

    They’re going to go for Johnson aren’t they?

    No. He's too discredited.

    They'll go for Fabricant.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited October 2022

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    edited October 2022

    Watching Question Time trying to see which members of the audience are going to back Truss. So far, none...

    It's Musselburgh to be fair.

    Edit: actually, east/mid Lothian has a fairly decent Tory vote. Dunno about the town itself.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578

    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    It's not so much social implications as information ones. I don't have a landline anymore, so if the power goes out, and I lose the broadband and the mobile phone signal, I've only got a battery radio, or newspapers at the corner shop, to get information on how long the power will be out for.

    Back when I had the landline there would be a phone number to call to get updates.
    And you'll be wondering whether it's an ordinary power-cut or WWIII.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    The problem with Cummings (and I admit I'm guessing here) is he has a massive ego and is determined to be the smartest person in the room. Unfortunately the British establishment aren't convinced and instead deem him to be a t***. Hence the resentment.

    Ukraine is one crisis that our establishment (and the US establishment) have actually handled very effectively.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    A nutter for each day of the year.
    With luck it'll soon be for the days of the week.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    Foxy said:

    "severe recession, this winter" says Ken Clarke.

    Surely rapid growth?
    That's Ken Clarke (AGC)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    edited October 2022
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,578
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    Truss's energy policy is Rishi's fault?

    And presumably Kwasi's unfunded borrowing is... G Brown's fault.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022

    DJ41 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Presumably the social repercussions of the mobile phone network going down have been wargamed, but I wonder how confident strategists or what pass for strategists are in their conclusions. Operative phrase being cold turkey.

    It's not so much social implications as information ones. I don't have a landline anymore, so if the power goes out, and I lose the broadband and the mobile phone signal, I've only got a battery radio, or newspapers at the corner shop, to get information on how long the power will be out for.

    Back when I had the landline there would be a phone number to call to get updates.
    This is why I have

    * two radio sets
    * three battery chargers
    * an inverter with which I can run a battery charger from my car (I had two inverters; one broke; I need to buy another)
    * a stock of car fuel
    * a stock of batteries
    * a larger battery that I can charge either from the car or a solar panel
    * a portable solar panel

    Don't underestimate the social implications. I walked up the local high street today. Many were picking their mobile phones as they were walking along. Typically those coming out of shops would start attending to their phones as soon as they came out onto the street. Many doorways and benches had youngsters sitting in or on, sniffing glue and shaking like leaves picking their phones. (And this is in quite a well-to-do town in southern England.) Many "need" these wretched devices. There will be major stuff happening in their heads if their access all of a sudden stops.

    Also you assume that reliable info on how long the power will be out for will actually exist.
  • Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    They were elected in autumn 2019. Everyone was mad then.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    Sean_F said:

    The problem with Cummings (and I admit I'm guessing here) is he has a massive ego and is determined to be the smartest person in the room. Unfortunately the British establishment aren't convinced and instead deem him to be a t***. Hence the resentment.

    Ukraine is one crisis that our establishment (and the US establishment) have actually handled very effectively.
    It's the one thing I would give David Cameron credit for.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    Truss's energy policy is Rishi's fault?

    And presumably Kwasi's unfunded borrowing is... G Brown's fault.
    The bung that has just kicked in is the Rishi one. Keep up at the back....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,308
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    A nutter for each day of the year.
    Are you proposing that they replace Truss with a rotating PM?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    A nutter for each day of the year.
    With luck it'll soon be for the days of the week.
    If the Conservatives disappear, their replacements won't be less nutty. The trend across the West is for the more mainstream right to be replaced by the more ...unorthodox right.
  • dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Two nations, sometimes on the same street. If your housing costs are low (longstanding mortgage), all sorts of things are still pretty peachy. If your housing costs are high (recent mortgage, or renting) the pips are already squeaking.
  • There is not a Tory 'unity candidate' against whom there won't be a sizeable number of Tory MPs rebelling.

    Death spiral. Tories are approaching the event horizon.

    Liberate tutemet ex inferis...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Scott_xP said:

    stjohn said:

    Tory Edward Costello: "What matters in politics is winning the next election".

    No! What matters is governing responsibly.

    I regret to inform you this comment has been flagged as potentially aiding and abetting the Anti Growth Coalition.
    To win the next election a governing party need 2 things\

    1) luck going it’s way (events and economy)
    2) being seen to have governed responsibly.

    Without 2 the luck disappears very rapidly…
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    There really are some sane ones, but what are they supposed to do? Regardless of one's view on Brexit too many sane conservatives with a small 'c' were culled in the Brexit debacle leaving too few to make a difference.
  • dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    A nutter for each day of the year.
    Are you proposing that they replace Truss with a rotating PM?
    It worked for Have I Got News For You
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    The problem with Cummings (and I admit I'm guessing here) is he has a massive ego and is determined to be the smartest person in the room. Unfortunately the British establishment aren't convinced and instead deem him to be a t***. Hence the resentment.

    Ukraine is one crisis that our establishment (and the US establishment) have actually handled very effectively.
    It's the one thing I would give David Cameron credit for.
    It actually suggests that the state of Western militaries is much better than I had thought. All this high tech equipment actually works, rather than being another Nimrod.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    First

    So, who tipped lab maj at 5/1? On here, so's you could all see.

    Well I'm guessing it would be TSE, though he would be too modest to admit it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    A nutter for each day of the year.
    Are you proposing that they replace Truss with a rotating PM?
    It worked for Have I Got News For You
    Can’t be worse than Truss staying in place
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    kjh said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    There really are some sane ones, but what are they supposed to do? Regardless of one's view on Brexit too many sane conservatives with a small 'c' were culled in the Brexit debacle leaving too few to make a difference.
    I thought people like Ken Clarke, Philip Hammond, and David Gauke were treated dreadfully.

    I was entirely happy to see the backs of Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    Con gain in Epping Forest!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    slade said:

    Con gain in Epping Forest!

    You serious?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    Lab hold in Hartlepool.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Sean_F said:

    slade said:

    Con gain in Epping Forest!

    You serious?
    You are right.

    I gather the outgoing councillor had issues.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited October 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Simple example -I earn £10,000 a month (post tax) my energy bill going up £200 and food £100 isn’t really noticed it’s 3% of my income.

    A friend earns £2000 a month - his price increases are the same but are 15% of his income - he’s going to have to cut back in ways I don’t.

    Now think about how it goes for someone on less than £2000 a month - what do you cut when your descretionary spending was already little to nothing.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Dear oh dear
    Why has the government not asked us to reduce our power consumption?
    Simply ask.
    Turn off the lights in the rooms you aren't in.
    Don't have the heating on when you're not at home, or try and just and put a jumper on for a few more weeks.
    Tell my boneheaded office manager that they don't need the Aircon set to 25C, AND LEAVE IT ON ALL WEEKEND when no one came in.
    That sort of stuff.......
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    slade said:

    Con gain in Epping Forest!

    So that's where HYUFD has been today.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Ok, lets look at the lower end. Costa is full. The sports bars are full. Primark is full.

    I don't see the doom that others are predicting.

    I wouldn't want to have bought a house in the last 2 years, or have a renewal in the next few months, but otherwise, I think it'll be pretty ride-out able for most people....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,112
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Simple example -I earn £10,000 a month (post tax) my energy bill going up £200 and food £100 isn’t really noticed it’s 3% of my income.

    A friend earns £2000 a month - his price increases are the same but are 15% of his income - he’s going to have to cut back in ways I don’t.

    Now think about how it goes for someone on less than £2000 a month - what do you cut when your descretionary spending was already little to nothing.
    AND YET there is no evidence that people are cutting back on discretionary spending. So what gives?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Petition to Parliament for an immediate GE, already approaching 700,000 sigs, for anyone interested:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/619781
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    edited October 2022
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Ok, lets look at the lower end. Costa is full. The sports bars are full. Primark is full.

    I don't see the doom that others are predicting.

    I wouldn't want to have bought a house in the last 2 years, or have a renewal in the next few months, but otherwise, I think it'll be pretty ride-out able for most people....
    So you can fill a few bars and coffee houses with 100 people with credit cards. That doesn’t mean there are not 1000s more at home suffering hard times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    edited October 2022
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Ok, lets look at the lower end. Costa is full. The sports bars are full. Primark is full.

    I don't see the doom that others are predicting.

    I wouldn't want to have bought a house in the last 2 years, or have a renewal in the next few months, but otherwise, I think it'll be pretty ride-out able for most people....
    Frankly, a lot of people don't think ahead financially. If they have money, they spend it. Worry about the bills when they come in, as may win the lottery.

    Who can blame the poor for thinking like that when the CoE and PM do?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    slade said:

    Con gain in Epping Forest!

    So that's where HYUFD has been today.
    Not if it's a gain. Sorry HYUFD only joking
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,707
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    The problem with Cummings (and I admit I'm guessing here) is he has a massive ego and is determined to be the smartest person in the room. Unfortunately the British establishment aren't convinced and instead deem him to be a t***. Hence the resentment.

    Ukraine is one crisis that our establishment (and the US establishment) have actually handled very effectively.
    It's the one thing I would give David Cameron credit for.
    It actually suggests that the state of Western militaries is much better than I had thought. All this high tech equipment actually works, rather than being another Nimrod.
    We may have been cutting defence spending but the disparity between Nato (combined) and Russia is absolutely vast. The main problem for Nato would seem to be that it's smallest members are right on the Russian border and it's main power is an ocean away. The US shouldn't really be in the position of having to secure the peace in Europe again.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited October 2022
    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    They can act in a herd, whether it's writing to Graham Brady or resigning from government positions, but what they don't seem to be able to do is see very far beyond the ends of their noses. They more than anyone know what a bunch of racist thicko c***s most of the members are. They knew Truss would win. They didn't want her to. They knew she was a crock. Why didn't they act as a herd to change the 1922 committee's leader-election rules? They could have done it if they had the will, foresight, organisation, common sense.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Ok, lets look at the lower end. Costa is full. The sports bars are full. Primark is full.

    I don't see the doom that others are predicting.

    I wouldn't want to have bought a house in the last 2 years, or have a renewal in the next few months, but otherwise, I think it'll be pretty ride-out able for most people....
    People aren't rational. None of this has arrived in bank accounts yet (unless you recently re-mortgaged)

    There was a new hyper-inequality introduced during the pandemic too. The PB demographic saved like mad and has cash to burn. Those on lower incomes did not, and have no buffer available now.
  • It needs to be understood that the 1922 Committee cannot unilaterally amend the Party's Leadership rules. Its role is defined in the Party Constitution which binds all members, including each and every MP. If the 1922 Committee wishes to change its twelve-month rule or any other part of its leadership procedures it must first consult the Party Board. The Party Board includes representatives of the voluntary party (the 180,000+ members who are entitled under the Constitution to elect the Leader). The journalists who are pushing this story certainly do not understand this and I wonder how many MPs have actually read and understood the Party Constitution? And if the 1922 Committee only present a single candidate (or one of the final two withdraws), the Party Board have power to refer the single nomination for approval by the full Party membership before it becomes effective.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Mortimer said:

    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Simple example -I earn £10,000 a month (post tax) my energy bill going up £200 and food £100 isn’t really noticed it’s 3% of my income.

    A friend earns £2000 a month - his price increases are the same but are 15% of his income - he’s going to have to cut back in ways I don’t.

    Now think about how it goes for someone on less than £2000 a month - what do you cut when your descretionary spending was already little to nothing.
    AND YET there is no evidence that people are cutting back on discretionary spending. So what gives?
    And yet Eek has answered, and so beautifully described the apartheid of the pocket gathering pace around us today, and you don’t appear to be listening. 😕
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Ok, lets look at the lower end. Costa is full. The sports bars are full. Primark is full.

    I don't see the doom that others are predicting.

    I wouldn't want to have bought a house in the last 2 years, or have a renewal in the next few months, but otherwise, I think it'll be pretty ride-out able for most people....
    I'm talking about folk for whom Costa, Primark is a treat. Who don't frequent sports bars. That really isn't the lower end.
    And. They aren't full round here. They are closing by the week.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's curious. 365 Conservative MPs were elected at the last election....and every one of them is mad.

    A nutter for each day of the year.
    Are you proposing that they replace Truss with a rotating PM?
    Well they are going to have to do a lot of spinning to get out of the mess.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    edited October 2022
    Old_Hand said:

    It needs to be understood that the 1922 Committee cannot unilaterally amend the Party's Leadership rules. Its role is defined in the Party Constitution which binds all members, including each and every MP. If the 1922 Committee wishes to change its twelve-month rule or any other part of its leadership procedures it must first consult the Party Board. The Party Board includes representatives of the voluntary party (the 180,000+ members who are entitled under the Constitution to elect the Leader). The journalists who are pushing this story certainly do not understand this and I wonder how many MPs have actually read and understood the Party Constitution? And if the 1922 Committee only present a single candidate (or one of the final two withdraws), the Party Board have power to refer the single nomination for approval by the full Party membership before it becomes effective.

    That’s fine.

    But the PM needs the support of the House.
    If Truss has no support, she’s gone.
    If the PCP can find someone who does, they become PM.

    The Con leadership rules are ultimately neither here nor there.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.
    That's why all the hyperbolic reporting about Truss "crashing the economy" feels misconceived. Gilt prices are not the economy.
    Nor are hotels, restaurants or concerts. They are nice extras to have.
    It's rent, food and energy for a great many.
    Yes, but if people have money for the former, they've paid for the latter.

    The Rishi conceived energy bung is currently paying 70% of my monthly leccie bill. That. Is. A. Disgrace.
    That's a totally different issue to implying that because luxuries are in demand the economy is just peachy.
    You are free to donate your energy subsidy to HMRC. Or anywhere else.
    The economy as a whole seems pretty peachy. Otherwise the luxuries wouldn't be in demand.... I'm not sure what part of that is controversial?
    Because the well off are still well off.
    That isn't the economy as a whole.
    Is that controversial?
    A huge amount of discretionary spend at the lower end is being removed entirely.
    Ok, lets look at the lower end. Costa is full. The sports bars are full. Primark is full.

    I don't see the doom that others are predicting.

    I wouldn't want to have bought a house in the last 2 years, or have a renewal in the next few months, but otherwise, I think it'll be pretty ride-out able for most people....
    I'm talking about folk for whom Costa, Primark is a treat. Who don't frequent sports bars. That really isn't the lower end.
    And. They aren't full round here. They are closing by the week.
    The London economy (and it’s Southeastern overflow) are somewhat disconnected from the rest of the country.

    Personally I suspect it’s a Wile E Coyote moment. But I hope I’m wrong.
This discussion has been closed.