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It is becoming harder to see how Truss survives – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited October 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Is there any polling on how the British voter feels about dying to prove a point about something or other over Ukraine? I'm not sure that there is a clear majority in favour of the Bartydammerung option.

    Not content with his idea to cull the elderly to save fiscal creep, Dr Strangebart now wants to blow up the entire country.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    But that is the current position and the war is escalating not de-escalating. Bellicose rhetoric however morally right is dangerous when what at is at stake is the lives of hundreds of millions of Europeans.americans and russians . All that culture , all that history gone for the sake of being a bit too stubborn and rigid in wanting to be morally right. Sometimes you need to back down a little to gat a bully to as well (when that bully can kill you)
    And if Putin benefits in any way from using a nuke, and the taboo is not remade by what the rest of the world does in response, then the lives of all of us are very probably doomed through rampant proliferation and normalisation of nuclear warfare.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    I'm not sure it was defeated in WW1, hence the term armistice.

    Not sure there was much wrong with the Versailles Treaty either. Seemed pretty damned reasonable to me.
    Germans called for the Armistice when they had clearly lost the war. They just quit at an almost rational point, rather than waiting for the Allies to turn up in Berlin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    At this rate even IDS' Tory leadership looks strong compared to that of Truss
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    What is the point of this perpetual Tory Merry-go-Round?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    He has not said that at all. Listen carefully to the words - he will use weapons systems available to him - but he has said nothing about attacking NATO. All going well, isn’t it?
    He has made clear he will defend Russian territory whether it is Ukraine or NATO that attacks it
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Anyone considering a run at this stage is by definition not fit for the job.

    Truss should start sacking ministers for disloyalty, starting with Mordaunt.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    “People aren’t mysteriously really shit, and then become really good,” one senior Tory MP said.
    Our look at why the Truss u-turns are unlikely to be enough to turn things around.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-is-for-turning-but-it-may-be-too-late/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313

    I’m astonished at the lack of discipline in Tory ranks. Including at cabinet level.

    Since the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, British public life has become increasingly deranged, it is now in full syphillitic raving mode.

    I suspect that the Tories have never really become settled as to their leader since Cameron. Finding a new leader under pressing circumstances hasn't ever worked out very well for them.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    Stereodog said:

    I’m glad there are still a few sane people on here. If there is a full scale nuclear war we all die. Every single person posting here will be dead (with a tiny number of exceptions) and everything will be gone. I’m sorry but that isn’t anything that can happen in the Ukraine that makes a full nuclear war a preferable outcome. Of course that doesn’t mean everyone should just roll over to Russian aggression but if there comes a moment where the choice is real and clear between nuclear Armageddon and non intervention then I sincerely hope our leaders choose non intervention. You can bleat all you want about appeasement and talk about Hitler but it’s not the same equation. The choice in 1939 wasn’t between appeasement or suicide.
    You are wrong. @BartholemewRoberts looks at his daughter and thinks. "For the sake of the Oblast".

    And no one is to say he is wrong in thinking that but I'm not sure he has thought it through. It is a particularly perverse "moral maze" thought experiment. The point about MAD (the literal meaning of which @Bart hasn't really considered) is that it is or has been a bluff. And everyone knew it. What do we do if Putin now calls the bluff. I am not sure I know.

    I do know, however, that it is not as simple as @Bart makes out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    That’s exactly the point.

    It’s not fruitful to try and squeeze generally. The state needs to zero base it’s budget:

    - what should the state do
    - How can it be delivered most efficiently
    - What is the cost
    - How can that be raised

    Way too radical, of course. But if you believe that (a) there is a limit to the percentage of GDP the state can take in tax; (b) demographics are pushing costs up faster than we are growing; and (c) there is no easy and quick solution to our productivity challenges then “once you have eliminated the impossible, then whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth”

    At least Liz Truss’s “growth” approach is a genuine attempt at 3. Its poorly executed and mid conceived, but the objective is reasonable as a way to square the circle

    Belatedly: I'm sure that's correct, and I'm also sure that the most important long-term element of that is to ensure that everyone has properly saved for their own retirement.

    Australia, which their compulsory savings, seems by far the best example of this.

    The problem is that (a) people who are in the transition group feel cheated, because they are expected to save and to pay for retirees, and (b) forcing everyone to save more when the economy is already spluttering is a difficult sell.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,849
    edited October 2022

    And if Putin benefits in any way from using a nuke, and the taboo is not remade by what the rest of the world does in response, then the lives of all of us are very probably doomed through rampant proliferation and normalisation of nuclear warfare.
    yes , i agree it is game over if he does in all probability - thats why i am urging some diplomacy now and negotiation - there has to be at some point unless the world is going to end in a nuclear war - The world will be a lot safer if Putin has a get out clause and a little win somewhere even if just in his mind- he can then go and retire and the rest of us can breath a little easier
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    this year’s Tory Party Conference appears to have very similar vibes to The Purge films

    @agnesfrim Carry On up The Purge
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    darkage said:
    I think NZ has something like this.
    There are occasional suspicions that it is used to protect the well-connected, but by and large I think it works.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    TOPPING said:

    Trouble with that is is that while it is eminently reasonable as you write it, where do you draw the line.

    It is an offence to cause someone harassment, alarm or distress in the real world, however the hell that is determined. If you apply that to the internet then PB might as well close down tomorrow morning.

    @Phil?
    There is an official method of saying to someone "stop harassing me", from what I remember, that does include telling the local police that you believe you're being harassed. I guess something similar happens for reporting online? It just becomes more difficult when taking into account anonymous posting and such.

    The difference with PB might be, for instance, that there is moderation here and that no one has done that step. Someone could take that step - I could maybe post "TOPPING please stop replying to me in this manner as it causes me distress" and then I imagine it would depend on if you continued to reply to me in a way that reasonably could be considered harassing?

    I'm not saying these are easy things to define, and there is always a line between free speech and harassment and other illegitimate speech (hate speech, libel / slander, etc), but to the core issue of the severity of police response, again, it seems pretty run of the mill in my view.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639

    I'm not sure it was defeated in WW1, hence the term armistice.

    Not sure there was much wrong with the Versailles Treaty either. Seemed pretty damned reasonable to me.
    I wrote an essay at University about the Versailles Treaty which posited that the question of whether or not Germany paid any net reparations after WW1 involved utilising "formulae of Byzantine complexity". I was very proud of that and it is the only thing I remember about my studies. Although I still think reparations managed to piss off the Germans to an extent that far outweighed the utility of the money they recouped.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    HYUFD said:

    'Russia needs to accept its defeat in Ukraine with grace and repeat back to Russia.'

    I am sure Putin will do exactly as you say and be a very good loser
    Since Putin is getting his arse well and truly kicked by Ukraine, I'd regard any threats that he makes as hollow.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Scott_xP said:

    this year’s Tory Party Conference appears to have very similar vibes to The Purge films

    @agnesfrim Carry On up The Purge

    Carry on Down the Khazi.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited October 2022

    And if Putin benefits in any way from using a nuke, and the taboo is not remade by what the rest of the world does in response, then the lives of all of us are very probably doomed through rampant proliferation and normalisation of nuclear warfare.
    I think it is possible to draw a line around, say, NATO. Which as luck would have it we have done. We have said that an attack on a NATO member, etc...

    We have not said an attack on Ukraine. Or South Sudan. Or even as I understand it Pakistan or India. But you and @BartholomewRoberts want assured destruction over Ukraine. It is a wholly legitimate position to hold. I am not so sure, however, that I hold it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,763
    Dura_Ace said:

    Is there any polling on how the British voter feels about dying to prove a point about something or other over Ukraine? I'm not sure that there is a clear majority in favour of the Bartydammerung option.

    That would be a fun referendum. Would you hold it before it after a tactical nuke by Putin?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099

    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd

    It's another policy they won't get past the HoC tbf.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Omnium said:

    I suspect that the Tories have never really become settled as to their leader since Cameron. Finding a new leader under pressing circumstances hasn't ever worked out very well for them.

    Yes, I wouldn't refer to Corbyn as the timing for this - hasn't it always been Europe that started this? Thatcher was brought down partly due to Europe, and the Blue on Blue of the Brexit campaign I feel opened this can of worms more than Corbyn/ism.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd

    I'm somewhat unconvinced that we are on the same moral level as those countries.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453
    HYUFD said:

    He has made clear he will defend Russian territory whether it is Ukraine or NATO that attacks it
    I don't believe the Russian leadership really, truly believes that the annexed territories are part of Russia. They know that's not the case yet even if it's an aspiration in a few years after some school propaganda and a bit of ethnic cleansing. I very much doubt they are feeling the visceral fear that comes from a true attack on the motherland either. After all they've been bombing the shit out of those so called new territories over the last 6 months.

    Take UK experience in the Falklands. Now that was land to which we had a long standing legal claim, settled by loyal British subjects. It was invaded by Argentina, and recovered after a conventional battle which many didn't believe we could win. There was never any hint or prospect of Britain using nuclear weapons on Argentina. Even if the expeditionary force had been humiliatingly routed by the Argentinians in the South Atlantic the nukes would have stayed firmly in the drawer. Russia is fighting a colonial war of conquest in someone else's land and deep down it knows it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    This Tory conference is so amazingly messy I still can't believe it's real. Ministers going completely rogue, MPs barely here but still throwing shade left, right & centre, Tory members downing champagne while half laughing/half crying "we're all f***ed". It's WILD
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1577303194224529408
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited October 2022
    148grss said:

    Yes, I wouldn't refer to Corbyn as the timing for this - hasn't it always been Europe that started this? Thatcher was brought down partly due to Europe, and the Blue on Blue of the Brexit campaign I feel opened this can of worms more than Corbyn/ism.
    I noted Corbyn because that was the moment one of the two main parties went mad.

    Of course the Tories had been incubating their own virus for a lot longer.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd

    She’s a fxcking lunatic . Notwithstanding the ECHR that’s not even allowed under international law . And the government has removed almost all legal avenues to claim asylum .

    Patel was dreadful and Truss has managed to appoint someone whose even worse .
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,639
    148grss said:

    There is an official method of saying to someone "stop harassing me", from what I remember, that does include telling the local police that you believe you're being harassed. I guess something similar happens for reporting online? It just becomes more difficult when taking into account anonymous posting and such.

    The difference with PB might be, for instance, that there is moderation here and that no one has done that step. Someone could take that step - I could maybe post "TOPPING please stop replying to me in this manner as it causes me distress" and then I imagine it would depend on if you continued to reply to me in a way that reasonably could be considered harassing?

    I'm not saying these are easy things to define, and there is always a line between free speech and harassment and other illegitimate speech (hate speech, libel / slander, etc), but to the core issue of the severity of police response, again, it seems pretty run of the mill in my view.
    The Protection from Harassment Act 1998 defines harassment as being ""a course of conduct" which "amounts to harassment of another" and which "he knows or ought to know amounts to harassment of the other" and a person is taken to know that conduct is harassment if "a reasonable person in possession of the same information would think the course of conduct amounted to harassment of the other".
  • TimS said:

    I don't believe the Russian leadership really, truly believes that the annexed territories are part of Russia. They know that's not the case yet even if it's an aspiration in a few years after some school propaganda and a bit of ethnic cleansing. I very much doubt they are feeling the visceral fear that comes from a true attack on the motherland either. After all they've been bombing the shit out of those so called new territories over the last 6 months.

    Take UK experience in the Falklands. Now that was land to which we had a long standing legal claim, settled by loyal British subjects. It was invaded by Argentina, and recovered after a conventional battle which many didn't believe we could win. There was never any hint or prospect of Britain using nuclear weapons on Argentina. Even if the expeditionary force had been humiliatingly routed by the Argentinians in the South Atlantic the nukes would have stayed firmly in the drawer. Russia is fighting a colonial war of conquest in someone else's land and deep down it knows it.
    so why are you researching safe countries in the even of nuclear war?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Sean_F said:

    I'm somewhat unconvinced that we are on the same moral level as those countries.
    I am sure we are doing our best to level down! It just takes time, but the new Home Sec.y is probably the right person to achieve it.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    It's another policy they won't get past the HoC tbf.
    Its business as usual. They've had basically the same policy on this for 10 years.
    There is nothing new in what she is saying.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    TOPPING said:

    I think it is possible to draw a line around, say, NATO. Which as luck would have it we have done. We have said that an attack on a NATO member, etc...

    We have not said an attack on Ukraine. Or South Sudan. Or even as I understand it Pakistan or India. But you and @BartholomewRoberts want assured destruction over Ukraine. It is a wholly legitimate position to hold. I am not so sure, however, that I hold it.
    No, it's about the nuclear taboo and the ability of a non-nuclear state to not be threatened with nuclear blackmail, or for nuclear warfare to become normalised.

    Your ascribed position is incorrect.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    I would love to have sight of the US/Nato planned response in the event of a Russian tactical nuke.

    Also, what their assessment of the 'real' Russian nuclear capability is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd

    And Italy

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/26/italy-meloni-right-wing-migration/
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Sean_F said:

    I'm somewhat unconvinced that we are on the same moral level as those countries.
    Give it time you’ll get there ! Braverman is loathsome and forgets her own parents were immigrants .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    HYUFD said:

    Portugal is in NATO, therefore Lisbon and Porto would likely be nuked by Putin, you would need to be in very rural Portugal to have a chance
    Putin really doesn't have that many nukes, and many (perhaps most) of them won't work. So, I think Portugal is a good call.

    (Plus, the global cooling effect of a nuclear winter means you'd probably want to be somewhere reasonably warm, all other things being equal.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    There's no point particularly worrying about nuclear war. If you survive the initial strikes (By not being near a capital for instance) then it's very much a worry.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Jonathan said:

    Madeira?
    Probably not self sufficient in food.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Probably not self sufficient in food.
    and Ronaldo will probably be there
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    I quite like that Braverman said she was proud of the British Empire.

    I mean, I still think she’s a dangerous loon-bag, but this opinion has become too controversial to be voiced aloud in the past ten years, and that is a shame.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    rcs1000 said:

    So, your alternative is what? That whenever someone even mentions the word 'nuke', we all say 'sorry sir, my apologies sir'?

    And if we do that, don't you think there's just the tiniest chance that this increases the chance that the word 'nuke' is mentioned more in future?

    This is all fairly simple game theory stuff. And is exactly the reason why British troops would have had to have gone to Estonia in the event that Russia had invaded. (Something you were incredibly reticent to do, IIRC.)

    If you want to minimise the possibility of Armageddon, you need to be willing to accept Armageddon as an outcome.
    I am looking forward to a world in which threatening to use nukes gets you whatever you want.

    Irish border - "We are taking the whole of Ireland"
    Immigration - "Pale of Calais is ours now"
    Gas imports - "We now own the UAE"

    Can't see any downsides, really.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453

    so why are you researching safe countries in the even of nuclear war?
    Because I might be wrong. It's always best to make provision for any eventuality.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,157
    Scott_xP said:

    This Tory conference is so amazingly messy I still can't believe it's real. Ministers going completely rogue, MPs barely here but still throwing shade left, right & centre, Tory members downing champagne while half laughing/half crying "we're all f***ed". It's WILD
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1577303194224529408

    Sounds like Leon would love it. Weeping and drunk as LT straps him to her milking table.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    rcs1000 said:

    So, your alternative is what? That whenever someone even mentions the word 'nuke', we all say 'sorry sir, my apologies sir'?

    And if we do that, don't you think there's just the tiniest chance that this increases the chance that the word 'nuke' is mentioned more in future?

    This is all fairly simple game theory stuff. And is exactly the reason why British troops would have had to have gone to Estonia in the event that Russia had invaded. (Something you were incredibly reticent to do, IIRC.)

    If you want to minimise the possibility of Armageddon, you need to be willing to accept Armageddon as an outcome.
    For the sake of Ukraine. That is what this is about right now.

    How many wars are there in the world. Plenty. Nukes is just a big bomb. Plenty of ways not limited to machetes, small arms, and bows and arrows to kill people. Lots of people.

    I am none too sure about asssured destruction of the UK for the sake of Ukraine. We didn't care eight years ago at all. I think I barely noticed the annexation of the Crimea, shameful current affairs hound as I am.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    I noted Corbyn because that was the moment one of the two main parties went mad.

    Of course the Tories had been incubating their own virus for a lot longer.
    This is where subjective stuff comes in - I think Thatcherism was pretty mad, and because it won most people just think it's grand. That's what happens when you win.

    But the Tory party discipline does seem to have really been shot since the Brexit campaign. May never really got it under control, and lost a GE. Johnson expelled a load of MPs and then won a GE to get a majority to get it back, but there was still a lot of infighting, it was just subsumed by the crisis that was (is) covid. This leadership campaign opened up a lot of bad blood, and not just between Truss supporters and Sunak supporters, but between Johnson loyalists and those who thought he had to go.

    That Dorries is saying a GE is needed, when she backed Truss quite loudly, is strange to me. Sure, she's mad, but why turn that quickly? Does she want to quit without being seen to quit? Buyers remorse? Or was this the hope all along - pick someone useless, then demand a GE and have them ousted and "get back the party" by proving only Johnsonism works?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    No, it's about the nuclear taboo and the ability of a non-nuclear state to not be threatened with nuclear blackmail, or for nuclear warfare to become normalised.

    Your ascribed position is incorrect.
    Where is this nuclear taboo encoded?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Tory MPs are publicly opposing the Home Secretary's comments https://twitter.com/GuyOpperman/status/1577290769005682689
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    Pulpstar said:

    There's no point particularly worrying about nuclear war. If you survive the initial strikes (By not being near a capital for instance) then it's very much a worry.

    It depends. Using modern weapons, the burnt and blasted bits might actually be quite confined. Radiation would be the big killer.

    So rather than the burnt out cities of Threads, much of the UK would be awfully quiet, and after a few weeks for the radiation to decline and the bodies to rot an acceptable level, quite inhabitable.

    So after 6 weeks in your bunker, pop upstairs to inherit....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313

    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd

    These channel crossings are something to be stopped. Stopping them and then worrying about any misfortune that has been created doesn't seem such a bad plan to me. They are after all choosing to come from France, and I know it's been long regarded in the UK with some suspiscion it is really rather a nice place.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited October 2022

    I would love to have sight of the US/Nato planned response in the event of a Russian tactical nuke.

    Also, what their assessment of the 'real' Russian nuclear capability is.

    Didn't someone on here recently idly ponder out loud where was our nuclear fleet at the moment - in case anyone on PB happened to know and could tell him.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453
    rcs1000 said:

    Putin really doesn't have that many nukes, and many (perhaps most) of them won't work. So, I think Portugal is a good call.

    (Plus, the global cooling effect of a nuclear winter means you'd probably want to be somewhere reasonably warm, all other things being equal.)
    Indeed, we would fly to Porto and then settle down in an airbnb somewhere nice and rural, perhaps up the Douro river. Likewise Ireland - fly to Cork then stay somewhere like Waterford.
  • I am afraid that is dangerous talk and it is never a good idea to leave a country "comprehensively defeated" - even in the non nuclear age it was the recipe for WW2 with Verseilles Treaty etc. When we are wanting to totally defeat a country with the highest amount of nukes on the planet it is absurd to have that as an aim
    2
    No, when a nation is seeking to change borders by wars of aggression on our continent, it is absurd not to have that as an aim.

    If Russia didn't want to be defeated, they shouldn't have started this war. They began this war, they can and must lose it.

    The "off ramp" is for them to withdraw to their own territory, which is bloody generous to be frank, in the past we would have partitioned some of their land after they were defeated as the price they had to pay for recompense for their aggression.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    TOPPING said:

    For the sake of Ukraine. That is what this is about right now.

    How many wars are there in the world. Plenty. Nukes is just a big bomb. Plenty of ways not limited to machetes, small arms, and bows and arrows to kill people. Lots of people.

    I am none too sure about asssured destruction of the UK for the sake of Ukraine. We didn't care eight years ago at all. I think I barely noticed the annexation of the Crimea, shameful current affairs hound as I am.
    The latest theory in Russia is that the whole thing was an elaborate trap set by the West. Let them take a small bite without too much fuss knowing that it would eventually draw them in to a situation where they are doomed whatever they do.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    rcs1000 said:

    Probably not self sufficient in food.
    Yes but a thoroughly pleasant way to ameliorate your long, lingering death.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    I'm not sure it was defeated in WW1, hence the term armistice.

    Not sure there was much wrong with the Versailles Treaty either. Seemed pretty damned reasonable to me.
    Totally incorrect. Germany was on its knees in Nov 1918, just that the army was still on foreign soil. Two or three more months of the 'hundred days' would have reached the Rhine and possibly beyond. The idea that Germany didn't lose is a myth promulgated in the 20's and 30's and is utterly laughable.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Omnium said:

    These channel crossings are something to be stopped. Stopping them and then worrying about any misfortune that has been created doesn't seem such a bad plan to me. They are after all choosing to come from France, and I know it's been long regarded in the UK with some suspiscion it is really rather a nice place.
    The only way to stop the crossings is to make safe passage and application of asylum possible, not making them more illegal.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    TOPPING said:

    Where is this nuclear taboo encoded?
    In the reality that they have never been used in warfare in 77 years, despite nuclear powers engaging in conflict with non-nuclear states many times in the interim.

    A very quick search finds many uses of the term throughout the literature.
  • HYUFD said:

    So you now want to deploy Trident to attack Moscow if Putin launches a tactical nuclear weapon in the disputed regions of Ukraine.

    When not even a NATO state let alone the UK is directly at risk of Russia invasion or nuclear attack. Trident is a defence of last resort for us, not a method of first attack!
    If Putin launches nuclear weapons then we would be retaliating, not making a first attack. Yes, if they use nukes we should field our full range of weaponry including Trident in response, there is no point dicking around with half measures at that point and allowing them to do tit-for-tat escalations.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Phil said:

    Yeah, that kind of thing will work on Google, or Facebook, or any firm located in the UK (or the EU). It won’t work on KiwiFarms.

    It’s entirely plausible to me that the only way to connect this woman with her KF accounts (if they exist) is to grab her devices & go through them to look for digital forensic evidence.

    This /is/ the appropriate due process.
    That sort of thing should need to be signed off by a judge, based on the available evidence from the complainant that the person in question is actually responsible for the messages in question, and that the messages themselves exceed the standard of illegality.

    Otherwise it’s simply middle-class swatting, using the police to harass someone who’s upset you. Police should *always* need warrants, where there is no immediate risk of physical harm.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    HYUFD said:

    And Italy

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/26/italy-meloni-right-wing-migration/
    Another country that has elected a populist nutter.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    148grss said:

    This is where subjective stuff comes in - I think Thatcherism was pretty mad, and because it won most people just think it's grand. That's what happens when you win.

    But the Tory party discipline does seem to have really been shot since the Brexit campaign. May never really got it under control, and lost a GE. Johnson expelled a load of MPs and then won a GE to get a majority to get it back, but there was still a lot of infighting, it was just subsumed by the crisis that was (is) covid. This leadership campaign opened up a lot of bad blood, and not just between Truss supporters and Sunak supporters, but between Johnson loyalists and those who thought he had to go.

    That Dorries is saying a GE is needed, when she backed Truss quite loudly, is strange to me. Sure, she's mad, but why turn that quickly? Does she want to quit without being seen to quit? Buyers remorse? Or was this the hope all along - pick someone useless, then demand a GE and have them ousted and "get back the party" by proving only Johnsonism works?
    Corbyn was far outside the “window” of standard British political discourse.

    He was further left than Michael Foot, and significantly further away from the centre ground than Margaret Thatcher.

    Anyway, the main point was not his ideological eccentricity, but the meltdown it caused in the Labour Party, including mass resignations from the front bench, leadership challenges and defections.

    This kind of mass hysteria then repeated itself for May, then for Boris, and now for Liz.

    I don’t blame the MPs especially. There has been a structural shift which is delivering extreme instability into British politics.

    It looks like a North Atlantic Italy, no wonder investors want a risk premium.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,453
    TOPPING said:

    Yes but a thoroughly pleasant way to ameliorate your long, lingering death.
    Self sufficient in sweet, warming fortified wine too.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    rcs1000 said:

    Putin really doesn't have that many nukes, and many (perhaps most) of them won't work. So, I think Portugal is a good call.

    (Plus, the global cooling effect of a nuclear winter means you'd probably want to be somewhere reasonably warm, all other things being equal.)
    If he doesn’t have many nukes how many would he spare for the UK? I mean he does seem to hate us so I’m not holding out any hope!
  • ajbajb Posts: 151
    So, if truss is kicked out, Sunak caretakes but doesn't win (or get coronated) then we will have had 4 Prime Ministers in a year. Like the Year of the 4 Emperors. How likely is that?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470

    Totally incorrect. Germany was on its knees in Nov 1918, just that the army was still on foreign soil. Two or three more months of the 'hundred days' would have reached the Rhine and possibly beyond. The idea that Germany didn't lose is a myth promulgated in the 20's and 30's and is utterly laughable.
    Ludendorff told the Kaiser that the war was lost and that he couldn't guarantee that the front wouldn't collapse completely, if he didn't get a ceasefire that day.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    If Putin launches nuclear weapons then we would be retaliating, not making a first attack. Yes, if they use nukes we should field our full range of weaponry including Trident in response, there is no point dicking around with half measures at that point and allowing them to do tit-for-tat escalations.
    OK that's a cool and consistent position to hold. If Russia uses a battlefield nuclear weapon in Ukraine then your entire family dies shortly thereafter.

    That how you see it? That is what you want as I understand your posts. Because not to have a global nuclear war which would kill your family on account of a nuclear warhead used in Ukraine would be giving in to Putin.
  • Not content with his idea to cull the elderly to save fiscal creep, Dr Strangebart now wants to blow up the entire country.
    I don't want to, I want us to convince Russia not to engage in a first strike.

    But if they do engage in a first strike, then we absolutely should have Trident and the full range of our weaponry for retaliation in response.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,999
    NE Kherson. This front line had been quite static for weeks. Not any more....

    Ukraine advance in the last 48 hours:

    https://twitter.com/Ira_Korn_Aex/status/1577311906678935554
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    148grss said:

    The only way to stop the crossings is to make safe passage and application of asylum possible, not making them more illegal.
    Well I agree that it is the primary plank in the scheme. Making any channel migrant forever ineligible for asylum in the UK would also be helpful I imagine.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    In the reality that they have never been used in warfare in 77 years, despite nuclear powers engaging in conflict with non-nuclear states many times in the interim.

    A very quick search finds many uses of the term throughout the literature.
    Throughout literature. Not "the literature". A book by Nina Tannenwald published in 2007 AFAICS.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212
    TimS said:

    Indeed, we would fly to Porto and then settle down in an airbnb somewhere nice and rural, perhaps up the Douro river. Likewise Ireland - fly to Cork then stay somewhere like Waterford.
    In the case of a world-changing nuclear war are you sure you’re going to be able to wait it out in an AirBNB?

    Strikes me that those properties are likely to get requisitioned pretty quickly!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    A PM needs to inspire respect (and maybe a little fear). Truss doesn’t.

    No MP, not a single one, is currently feeling they need to butter up Truss to develop their career.

    Unless something happens soon , she is toast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    I note that the govt has decided to abandon Human Rights.

    So now we are on the same moral level as Yemen, Afghansitan, Myanmar, Somalia, etc etc.

    Suella Braverman will on Tuesday pledge to prevent human rights laws "interfering" with the UK's ability to deport illegal migrants by introducing a new law barring anyone who crosses the Channel from claiming asylum in Britain. "

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/suella-braverman-time-has-come-to-take-on-european-court-interfering-with-migrant-deportations/ar-AA12yyZd

    An unreasonable suggestion. Its abused, but genuine asylum seekers exist, ruling it out is wrong.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,157

    In the case of a world-changing nuclear war are you sure you’re going to be able to wait it out in an AirBNB?

    Strikes me that those properties are likely to get requisitioned pretty quickly!
    The threat of a scathing review on TripAdvisor would sort that out. Totally fucking rinse them. It's the only language tyrants understand.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    HYUFD said:

    And Italy

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/26/italy-meloni-right-wing-migration/
    I suspect that RN will win the next French election, and follow suit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    I don't want to, I want us to convince Russia not to engage in a first strike.

    But if they do engage in a first strike, then we absolutely should have Trident and the full range of our weaponry for retaliation in response.
    Bart it would cement your credibility if you wrote the words "I want my wife and daughter to die if Russia uses a battlefield nuclear weapon in Ukraine".

    Then your position would be entirely consistent. As it usually is.

    So tia.
  • TOPPING said:

    I think it is possible to draw a line around, say, NATO. Which as luck would have it we have done. We have said that an attack on a NATO member, etc...

    We have not said an attack on Ukraine. Or South Sudan. Or even as I understand it Pakistan or India. But you and @BartholomewRoberts want assured destruction over Ukraine. It is a wholly legitimate position to hold. I am not so sure, however, that I hold it.
    No, I don't want assured destruction. I want to prevent nuclear Armageddon by preventing nuclear escalation in the first place.

    Yes we've drawn a line around NATO for attacks, which is why we haven't directly responded in this war. But that is only part of it, there is also a line against nuclear aggression.

    If Russia crosses the line and fires nukes, which nobody has done in anger since WWII, then that line is crossed.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    edited October 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Trouble with that is is that while it is eminently reasonable as you write it, where do you draw the line.

    It is an offence to cause someone harassment, alarm or distress in the real world, however the hell that is determined. If you apply that to the internet then PB might as well close down tomorrow morning.

    @Phil?
    I guess this is what we have laws & courts for? To settle law on these questions.

    In this particular case we only have half the story - we have no idea what the woman in question is even accused of. Her testimony on the matter is, inevitably, going to be partial & from her point of view.

    It seems to me that there is a line between saying something in general (e.g. in this case the woman clearly has strong GC beliefs) and going after individuals that you don’t like (individual trans people in this instance). Having GC beliefs is fine in law, but going after individual trans people is not. A stage beyond that would be encouraging others to target a particular individual as well, with the severity depending on the level of harrassment.

    This woman has a history of anti trans political campaigning, which of course she is entitled to carry out in this free country of ours. If that campaigning has crossed the line into harrassing individuals, then she should rightly be held to account for it. I suggest we wait & see if she is charged & if so what the charges are before leaping to our pre-prepared social justice barricades.

    (She is heavily involved with this bunch I believe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CitizenGo - she’s holding their logo on her Twitter banner.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    edited October 2022

    If he doesn’t have many nukes how many would he spare for the UK? I mean he does seem to hate us so I’m not holding out any hope!
    Top targets:

    Strategic - London
    Naval - Barrow; Portsmouth; Plymouth; Glasgow.
    Intelligence - Cheltenham; Menwith Hill
    There's loads of army and airforce bases so I think those would be lower prio, Putin would surely be targetting many other european and US infrastructure past those lot.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    Jonathan said:

    A PM needs to inspire respect (and maybe a little fear). Truss doesn’t.

    No MP, not a single one, is currently feeling they need to butter up Truss to develop their career.

    Unless something happens soon , she is toast.

    Maybe she can use her human hand grenade status to pioneer a new style of leadership:

    - Spot a policy area that needs addressing
    - Announce a wildly unpopular solution supported by nobody
    - Force everyone else to come up with an alternative
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    rcs1000 said:

    So, your alternative is what? That whenever someone even mentions the word 'nuke', we all say 'sorry sir, my apologies sir'?

    And if we do that, don't you think there's just the tiniest chance that this increases the chance that the word 'nuke' is mentioned more in future?

    This is all fairly simple game theory stuff. And is exactly the reason why British troops would have had to have gone to Estonia in the event that Russia had invaded. (Something you were incredibly reticent to do, IIRC.)

    If you want to minimise the possibility of Armageddon, you need to be willing to accept Armageddon as an outcome.
    It's not clear why anyone should be afraid of Russian military capability any more. They've proved that they are pathetically weak and incompetent, and quite incapable of standing up to an enemy who can shoot back.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Omnium said:

    Well I agree that it is the primary plank in the scheme. Making any channel migrant forever ineligible for asylum in the UK would also be helpful I imagine.
    Why would that help? They would just be more incentivised to never interact with state apparatus and, if they did succeed in getting here, become an underclass who are easier to exploit.
  • If he doesn’t have many nukes how many would he spare for the UK? I mean he does seem to hate us so I’m not holding out any hope!
    yes Johnson acting like a wannabe Churchill probably has pointed a few more at us. Truss did not help with her stupid call for UK citizens to fight for Ukraine back in March
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    edited October 2022
    Phil said:

    I guess this is what we have laws & courts for? To settle law on these questions.

    In this particular case we only have half the story - we have no idea what the woman in question is even accused of. Her testimony on the matter is, inevitably, going to be partial & from her point of view.

    It seems to me that there is a line between saying something in general (e.g. in this case the woman clearly has strong GC beliefs) and going after individuals that you don’t like (individual trans people in this instance). Having GC beliefs is fine in law, but going after individual trans people is not. A stage beyond that would be encouraging others to target a particular individual as well, with the severity depending on the level of harrassment.

    This woman has a history of anti trans political campaigning, which of course she is entitled to carry out in this free country of ours. If that campaigning has crossed the line into harrassing individuals, then she should rightly be held to account for it. I suggest we wait & see if she is charged & if so what the charges are before leaping to our pre-prepared social justice barricades.
    tyvm
  • TOPPING said:

    Bart it would cement your credibility if you wrote the words "I want my wife and daughter to die if Russia uses a battlefield nuclear weapon in Ukraine".

    Then your position would be entirely consistent. As it usually is.

    So tia.
    No I don't want them to die. If it comes to that I'd want Russia's weaponry to fail, or to be intercepted. But I would want to take and accept the risk that my family and I would die if it comes to that. The risk of that is better than nuclear aggression being the norm in the world.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556

    No I don't want them to die. If it comes to that I'd want Russia's weaponry to fail, or to be intercepted. But I would want to take and accept the risk that my family and I would die if it comes to that. The risk of that is better than nuclear aggression being the norm in the world.
    So write the words.
  • No I don't want them to die. If it comes to that I'd want Russia's weaponry to fail, or to be intercepted. But I would want to take and accept the risk that my family and I would die if it comes to that. The risk of that is better than nuclear aggression being the norm in the world.
    I hope your family accept that is a good trade . Their life for a concept . Great .i woudl suggest taking a walk this afternoon and looking at the normality and innocence of life and all its varieties . It may make you think different
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    148grss said:

    Why would that help? They would just be more incentivised to never interact with state apparatus and, if they did succeed in getting here, become an underclass who are easier to exploit.
    It makes the whole business unviable in my view.
  • rcs1000 said:

    So, your alternative is what? That whenever someone even mentions the word 'nuke', we all say 'sorry sir, my apologies sir'?

    And if we do that, don't you think there's just the tiniest chance that this increases the chance that the word 'nuke' is mentioned more in future?

    This is all fairly simple game theory stuff. And is exactly the reason why British troops would have had to have gone to Estonia in the event that Russia had invaded. (Something you were incredibly reticent to do, IIRC.)

    If you want to minimise the possibility of Armageddon, you need to be willing to accept Armageddon as an outcome.
    Bingo!

    This is what our appeaser crowd don't get. Appeasement doesn't work.

    Being willing to accept being killed in a nuclear Armageddon doesn't mean you want it to happen, it means you're prepared to take that risk - and being prepared to take that risk, makes it less likely, and makes you safer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    No, when a nation is seeking to change borders by wars of aggression on our continent, it is absurd not to have that as an aim.

    If Russia didn't want to be defeated, they shouldn't have started this war. They began this war, they can and must lose it.

    The "off ramp" is for them to withdraw to their own territory, which is bloody generous to be frank, in the past we would have partitioned some of their land after they were defeated as the price they had to pay for recompense for their aggression.
    I think given the nuke situation it is legitimate to worry about what may practically achieved when an irrational actor is at the helm.

    But that doesnt mean an aim of the status quo ante bellum, ie restoration on internationally recognised borders, is itself unreasonable. Whether it gets achieved because of the nuke issue is another thing, but fundamentally 'put it back as it was before invasion in 2014' would not be an unfair starting point, or the line between humiliation and not humiliation.
  • I hope your family accept that is a good trade . Their life for a concept . Great .i woudl suggest taking a walk this afternoon and looking at the normality and innocence of life and all its varieties . It may make you think different
    Yes, its a fantastic trade, and helps ensure that my children will grow up in a world not blighted by continual nuclear wars.

    I would suggest you take a walk and think what purpose your desired appeasement actually achieves and where it would end?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    TOPPING said:

    So write the words.
    However, both Bart and I believe that it is your stance which would imperil or even doom our families and ourselves.

    That trying to hide under the bed does not actually protect us but makes that fate far more likely. So it seems we are at an impasse - but one that is not assisted by you trying to make him or anyone else write down what you have concluded to be the effect. Anymore than it would be assisted by us insisting that you write down "I want to hide under the bedsheets and ensure my loved ones live in a world where they are far more likely to die in nuclear fire if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    yes Johnson acting like a wannabe Churchill probably has pointed a few more at us. Truss did not help with her stupid call for UK citizens to fight for Ukraine back in March
    Boris made some speeches and has provided material support like most other western leaders have. I think criticising him for an irrational russian response is a bit unfair - whatever his motivations someone with less churchillian pretensions would have done the same.

    We know that as the stance taken is supported across both main parties
  • However, both Bart and I believe that it is your stance which would imperil or even doom our families and ourselves.

    That trying to hide under the bed does not actually protect us but makes that fate far more likely. So it seems we are at an impasse - but one that is not assisted by you trying to make him or anyone else write down what you have concluded to be the effect. Anymore than it would be assisted by us insisting that you write down "I want to hide under the bedsheets and ensure my loved ones live in a world where they are far more likely to die in nuclear
    fire if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine."
    RCS is spot on.

    If you want peace, prepare for war

This discussion has been closed.