politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014

Strange set of results. 2 LD gains in Tory strongholds and 1 Tory gain in a LD stronghold. Scratches head...

Now all the LDs have to do is replicate their 45% swing in Guildford across the country and it will be Clegg waving goodbye to Dave from the steps of Downing street.

Update added a cartoon from Marf

Ah, so this must be the thread on Canadian politics.... well it is for me - first chance to post since I got back.

The view from Quebec: most people seem to think that another referendum is inevitable. Two factors make Yes less likely - increasing inward migration - migrants disproportionately No (they've come to be Canucks, not Quebecers), and today's young generation not having the same separatist passion as their parents' generation did in 95.

I found myself watching the BBC's coverage of the Indy Ref on a Canadian channel - but dubbed into French. Somewhat surreal.

LabourList report that Iain McKenzie has been sacked as PPS for Coaker and Curran because of his No vote today.

The national picture: It isn't the economy stupid - it's Harper. He's becoming more and more unpopular, and seems to be a drag on the Tories. My contact(!) in the Liberals reckons that if the Tories are still behind in the polls as we approach the election, Harper might quit. If there is a market on next PM, might be worth covering a couple of Tories.

Trudeau is criticised for being a pretty boy and/or an empty suit - so far that is working with the voters, but the Lib's support may fall when he comes under more scrutiny during the campaign proper.

NDP trailing in third have taken the radical step of starting to announce policies - and slagging off the other two parties' leaders. They'll need a big bounce to get back into the top two.

Basically, a 14 month election campaign has just started, and it's the pretty boy's to lose.

I noticed some comments on women's tattoos on the previous thread - reminded me of the following:

I once met a woman who had a letter W tattooed onto each buttock. When she bent over - WOW!

Dave Cameroon (@DaveCamm)
26/09/2014 09:08
Glad to see there's no terror alerts on London subway - only New York & Paris. Must be because we haven't bombed Iraq.... Yet. Oh. #ISIL

@NicoHines: What happens when a black journo goes to UKIP? RT @stephenkb A lot of: "Where are you from?" "London." "No, where are you really from?""

Evening all

I put the Lovelace numbers through Baxter and came up with the following:

Liberal Democrat 613
Labour 18
Irish MPs 18
Nationalist 1

So that's an LD majority of 576 which should be enough to be going on with.

I'm sure we'd all be happy with that outcome next May.

Scott_P said:

@NicoHines: What happens when a black journo goes to UKIP? RT @stephenkb A lot of: "Where are you from?" "London." "No, where are you really from?""

That's northerners for you

5/6 each of two whether that or the Iraq bombing will get most headlines

isam said:

Scott_P said:

@NicoHines: What happens when a black journo goes to UKIP? RT @stephenkb A lot of: "Where are you from?" "London." "No, where are you really from?""

That's northerners for you

5/6 each of two whether that or the Iraq bombing will get most headlines

I always found that tricky when I worked in London. Black people will get together and ask each other where their families are from. As a white person... I always found it difficult, despite the fact that I was interested, without it sounding like there was a "why don't you go back" subtext. Maybe I just never found the right way of asking.

Plato said:

I do wonder at times

Police were called to the South Norwood Leisure Centre in Croydon, pictured, after local residents reported groups of people surrounding a toddler and chanting 'Get the demon out'.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2770907/Police-investigating-child-exorcisms-carried-dawn-group-adults-chanting-demon-toddler.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490Have you met any toddlers recently?

Isn’t a significant part of UKIP Poujadist. To quote something from a distant and almost forgotten past!

JohnLilburne said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

@NicoHines: What happens when a black journo goes to UKIP? RT @stephenkb A lot of: "Where are you from?" "London." "No, where are you really from?""

That's northerners for you

5/6 each of two whether that or the Iraq bombing will get most headlines

I always found that tricky when I worked in London. Black people will get together and ask each other where their families are from. As a white person... I always found it difficult, despite the fact that I was interested, without it sounding like there was a "why don't you go back" subtext. Maybe I just never found the right way of asking.

Sounds to me most likely that some people who come from a part of the country that is overwhelmingly white clumsily tried to be friendly to a black person... The only response is national shame

Thin end of the wedge / mission creep. Cammo wants to bomb IS inside Syria too:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29366007

But I doubt he will call a vote on it.

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic, but may be of note to some on here:

Vauxhall warn owners of 3,000 Adam and Corsa cars registered from May 2014 not to drive them due to steering problem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29387561

What is one supposed to do ..... push it to the nearest dealership?

JohnLilburne said:

Scott_P said:

@carrieapples: William Hague on AQ: "Yes, we all forget things but usually where we've put the car keys, not a plan for how to deal with the deficit"

AQ? Surely that's his comment on EM?

(Why is Al Qaeda abbreviated AQ? You normally do not abbreviate the word for "the", so it should just be Q.)

Wasn't Q a character in Star Trek?

Plato said:

Following on from FPT re Kippers and anti-aspiration rhetoric, this was interesting from the DT blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100287887/ukip-vs-the-free-market-britains-immigration-debate-gets-interesting/

UPDATE:

Since posting this, I've seen reports from the Ukip conference in Doncaster that Ukip is now joining several trade unions in campaigning against elements of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a US-EU trade deal. The point of contention is the treaty's provisions relating to healthcare. Critics say the text as drafted could encourage private provision in the NHS. Leaving aside the daft argument about the NHS and private provision (What do think GP practices are?) and the transparent politics of the Ukip move (reach out to working-class Labour-inclined voters), I think this is a potentially significant, suggesting that Ukip is tilting ever more towards protectionism.

Reading the comments beneath Ukip-related posts here, and in conversation with Ukip supporters, I'm often struck by the hostility expressed towards big business. I don't think the idea of Ukip as anti-business party is reported enough, possibly because a lot of journalists tend to assume that Ukip is right-of-centre and must therefore be pro-market, pro-business. But the recent business/free market reaction to some Ukip-driven policies, and Ukip's own embrace of anti-trade protectionism over TTIP, strongly suggest that assumption is mistaken. Ukip is looking more and more like the enemy of big business. How will big business respond?

This isn't news. This is Farage from January.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYn0lTeFNV4
The MSM are just trying this on as an attack line. If it doesn't work they'll be back to 'once owned a golliwog in 1972' revelations.

Just got back from the UKIP conference (only stayed for the one day as everyone who wants to sign animal welfare petitions will have done so). Certainly well attended and more diverse than last year - at a glance about 40% women and maybe 3-5% from ethnic minorities, despite the journalist's unpleasant experience. Generally affable air and fewer obviously bonkers people like the chap last year who was convinced that the NHS was a Nazi concept.

I had a number of thoughtful conversations on this and that with delegates, who were happy to chat even when I mentioned my private Labour activities - as in the Tory conference, mild amusement is the usual reaction. It still felt somewhat less professional and focused on winning than the Labour conference, but it was notably more mainstream than last year.

Plato said:

Following on from FPT re Kippers and anti-aspiration rhetoric, this was interesting from the DT blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100287887/ukip-vs-the-free-market-britains-immigration-debate-gets-interesting/

UPDATE:

Since posting this, I've seen reports from the Ukip conference in Doncaster that Ukip is now joining several trade unions in campaigning against elements of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a US-EU trade deal. The point of contention is the treaty's provisions relating to healthcare. Critics say the text as drafted could encourage private provision in the NHS. Leaving aside the daft argument about the NHS and private provision (What do think GP practices are?) and the transparent politics of the Ukip move (reach out to working-class Labour-inclined voters), I think this is a potentially significant, suggesting that Ukip is tilting ever more towards protectionism.

Reading the comments beneath Ukip-related posts here, and in conversation with Ukip supporters, I'm often struck by the hostility expressed towards big business. I don't think the idea of Ukip as anti-business party is reported enough, possibly because a lot of journalists tend to assume that Ukip is right-of-centre and must therefore be pro-market, pro-business. But the recent business/free market reaction to some Ukip-driven policies, and Ukip's own embrace of anti-trade protectionism over TTIP, strongly suggest that assumption is mistaken. Ukip is looking more and more like the enemy of big business. How will big business respond?

Er, weren't you earlier mocking McCluskey's appeal to UKIP to reject TTIP? I think the word 'golly' might have been used. Looks like you misread. Alot of UKIP support is from people old and young who have not benefited from globalisation. Farage obviously understands this, whereas those who only see them as an alternative Tory party clearly don't?

peter_from_putney said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic, but may be of note to some on here:

Vauxhall warn owners of 3,000 Adam and Corsa cars registered from May 2014 not to drive them due to steering problem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29387561

What is one supposed to do ..... push it to the nearest dealership?

As it's the steering that's faulty, pushing may not be wise, either.

A slingshot's the best method. Or perhaps Mr Dancer's space cannon can be targeted on Eisenach.

I don't religiously usually follow such things, but this is the first time I can remember a do-not-drive notice being given. Whatever the problem is, it must be serious. But probably not as tragically awful as the GM ignition problems ...

Smarmeron said:

The malaise of Stafford is alive and well

"Patients are being neglected, hygiene is inadequate and staffing problems are affecting care at the only NHS hospital run by a private company, the health service care watchdog has found."

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/26/care-quality-commission-hinchingbrooke-hospital

The fact it's run by a private company is irrelevant. The client is the NHS. Top down funding = perverted priorities. Bottom up funding = efficiency and effectiveness. If the customer were the general public, and shit treatment meant no patients, thus no money, this sort of thing wouldn't happen.

@Luckyguy1983
Of course....What is Santa Clause bringing you this year?

Plato said:

What piffle. Apart from the fact that I can't imagine many would say "where are you really from" at all... it's a question about heritage.

If I was in India and someone asked me where I was from, even if I was born there - I'd say England. It's not racist or anything else - it's simply a statement of cultural links not geographical birth certificate.

My uncle Bart was from Sierra Leone. My cousins when asked where they were from replied Cresswell, and then Sierra Leone to explain their family background.

I just get so ticked off with the silly and IMO OTT PCness about this. Own it, live it, love it... and join our gang in the UK.

isam said:

JohnLilburne said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:

@NicoHines: What happens when a black journo goes to UKIP? RT @stephenkb A lot of: "Where are you from?" "London." "No, where are you really from?""

That's northerners for you

5/6 each of two whether that or the Iraq bombing will get most headlines

I always found that tricky when I worked in London. Black people will get together and ask each other where their families are from. As a white person... I always found it difficult, despite the fact that I was interested, without it sounding like there was a "why don't you go back" subtext. Maybe I just never found the right way of asking.

Sounds to me most likely that some people who come from a part of the country that is overwhelmingly white clumsily tried to be friendly to a black person... The only response is national shame

Well the journo is from London, and his parents were probably from London.. I just think that if you are asked by a northern pensioner "where are you really from", you have to have some understanding of why they might ask rather than compare it to Londoners not asking

Admittedly I am assuming it was northern pensioners that asked him six times, but it was a ukip meeting up North... If it was the UKIP youth wing, which seem to me to be youngish Chelsea types then it's a bit worrying!

SandyRentool said:

"The Liberal Democrats have chosen local councillor Josh Mason to stand as the party's candidate for Redcar at the 2015 General Election."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-29376288

So after May, he'll be able to concentrate full time on his role as a councillor.

That is one place where I'd expect a HUGE number of Lib Dem voters to go UKIP.

Smarmeron said:

@Luckyguy1983
Of course....What is Santa Clause bringing you this year?

A better comeback than that hopefully.

SandyRentool said:

Danny565 said:

SandyRentool said:

"The Liberal Democrats have chosen local councillor Josh Mason to stand as the party's candidate for Redcar at the 2015 General Election."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-29376288

So after May, he'll be able to concentrate full time on his role as a councillor.

That is one place where I'd expect a HUGE number of Lib Dem voters to go UKIP.

Care to explain your thinking? To my mind they are all Labour voters on holiday, and will be mostly back in the fold next May.

I don't get it either. LD won Redcar because Baird abandoned her constituents over the steelworks closure. With the apparently well regarded LD retiring, the bleed will surely be back to Lab, provided their candidate makes the right noises.

That said, given the steelworks partially reopened during this Parliament, if I was the LD candidate, I'd be trying to capitalise.

SandyRentool said:

Thin end of the wedge / mission creep. Cammo wants to bomb IS inside Syria too:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29366007

But I doubt he will call a vote on it.

A strange comment from that article

Downing Street has said a small number of troops could be sent to Iraq within hours if the Commons backs action.

However, the prime minister's official spokesman emphasised the troops would not be in a combat role but would be used to guide air strikes by RAF fighters

Since when has forward air control been a non-combat role?

Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.

JohnLilburne said:

SandyRentool said:

Thin end of the wedge / mission creep. Cammo wants to bomb IS inside Syria too:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29366007

But I doubt he will call a vote on it.

A strange comment from that article

Downing Street has said a small number of troops could be sent to Iraq within hours if the Commons backs action.

However, the prime minister's official spokesman emphasised the troops would not be in a combat role but would be used to guide air strikes by RAF fighters

Since when has forward air control been a non-combat role?

Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.


That reminds me in Libya, where I remembered seeing on the tv coverage the final days of Gaddafi, where you would catch these random armed "blokes", who clearly weren't Libyan wandering around "discussing" with rebels. The report would say the rebels had met some resistance, but that had been sorted now. Magically no resistance anymore, only flattened areas.

SandyRentool said:

JohnLilburne said:

SandyRentool said:

Thin end of the wedge / mission creep. Cammo wants to bomb IS inside Syria too:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29366007

But I doubt he will call a vote on it.

A strange comment from that article

Downing Street has said a small number of troops could be sent to Iraq within hours if the Commons backs action.

However, the prime minister's official spokesman emphasised the troops would not be in a combat role but would be used to guide air strikes by RAF fighters

Since when has forward air control been a non-combat role?

Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.

Just thinking - is this the first time the RAF has been given a mission to go and drop bombs on British citizens?Traitors.

Is Yorkshire Going Purple?

Looked at Populus opinion poll (19th - 21st September) and uncovered the following

Tory: Unweighted: 437: Weighted: 462
Labo: Unweighted:575: Weighted : 544
Libs: Unweighted: 107: Weighted: 138
UKIP: Unweighted: 347: Weighted: 175

However looking at the Yorkshire Area we get:

Tory: Weighted: 50; Unweighted : 47
Labo: weighted: 48: Unweighted : 51
Libs: Weighted: 23: Unweighted : 18
UKIP: Weighted: 29: Unweighted : 58

I hope I am right in that the unweighted vote is the actual people polled.
Add in that UKIP is more popular (as a percentage of class voting intention) than Labour in the C2DE class and you may begin to realise why Labour is getting worried.

Plato said:

What do you think is driving their views? Being contrary? Something else?

I'd love to understand this better. I felt 6 months ago that I knew what Brand Kipper was - now I've no idea.

Socrates said:

The more I think about this military intervention the more I support it - and the more I'm feeling alienated from many Ukippers that seem to be knee jerk anti-war.

It can't be much of a surprise, Farage has been quite pro-Putin over the Ukraine. There seems to be a lot of Little Englander in their makeup, or at least non-interventionism. Although I did hear him interviewed and he seems to think the strategy is wrong - he seemed to say IS should be destroyed by the combined ground forces of neighbouring Arab states, and we could support that a bit if we liked.

You do wonder why Saudi has all that military hardware.

I don't think I've ever met an American pretending to be Chicken George. And if someone asks a black Londoner where he comes from what else is he supposed to say except London? I agree with iSam that if pensioners struggle with that then they deserve a bit of leeway, but others? Not so much.

SandyRentool said:

JohnLilburne said:

SandyRentool said:

Thin end of the wedge / mission creep. Cammo wants to bomb IS inside Syria too:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29366007

But I doubt he will call a vote on it.

A strange comment from that article

Downing Street has said a small number of troops could be sent to Iraq within hours if the Commons backs action.

However, the prime minister's official spokesman emphasised the troops would not be in a combat role but would be used to guide air strikes by RAF fighters

Since when has forward air control been a non-combat role?

Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.

Just thinking - is this the first time the RAF has been given a mission to go and drop bombs on British citizens?

Depends what you mean by British citizens. Firstly, they are not being explicitly targeted: only those that adhere to or are part of IS.

Secondly, yes, the RAF has deliberately targeted British subjects before in the name of peacekeeping. For example, rebels in Iraq and the North-West Frontier of India between the wars.

To bomb, or not to bomb, that is the question........

It's complex, but, I'm edging towards not just bombing ISIL, but going for a full on, boots on the ground, kick ass, shock and awe kill fest.
But, then, I'm not the one who's going to be at the sharp end.
I know a lot of forces people, a few of the Stopper clan are in various branches, including two young nephews who would expect to be at the tip of the spear, if it does escalate, and a close friend who can shoot the balls off a gnat from a mile away, after having crawled on his belly for 5 days to get in position. These are the people who will be playing out the policy that Whitehall, and the voting public, demanding something, anything, want actioning. Other people's sons, brothers, husbands, and yes, now daughters, wives, sisters. It's easy to be an armchair general.

If we accept that we are at least partly responsible for the state of things in Iraq (cheers, Tony),what do we do about it? I think we have a duty to clear up the mess we made, and that is going to take a lot of blood and treasure. We also have to separate the crazy islamist psychopaths from the majority of muslims, but that is difficult, given that our actions tend to radicalise rather than create harmony. Maybe we have to accept that protecting ourselves will offend some people?

Make no bones about it, it is going to be bloody. It's going to have to be a full on war, it needs to be a full on war. What my friends and family don't want, is a hands-tied-behind-their-back- police action, where they end up stuck in theatre, a war of attrition, to be maimed and killed by IEDs and suicide bombers and then to withdraw ignominiously a decade later. If they're to fight a war, let them fight it.

It's the aftermath that will be the problem. Say we beat ISIL, what next? What Islamist group will spring up next, to take their place? Where wil we have to intervene next?
But if we do nothing, what next?
These things always always end in "next".