Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014
Epping, Hemnal on Epping Forest (Conservative Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 607 (43% +7%), Conservatives 386 (28% -14%), UKIP 339 (24% +16%), Green 69 (5% +1%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 221 (15%) on a swing of 10.5% from Con to Lib Dem
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
They have killed at least one British hostage already: I suggest we should be seeking brutal and bloody vengeance for that alone.
The view from Quebec: most people seem to think that another referendum is inevitable. Two factors make Yes less likely - increasing inward migration - migrants disproportionately No (they've come to be Canucks, not Quebecers), and today's young generation not having the same separatist passion as their parents' generation did in 95.
I found myself watching the BBC's coverage of the Indy Ref on a Canadian channel - but dubbed into French. Somewhat surreal.
26/09/2014 19:53
Let's hope British Bombs dropped from 10,000 feet are "smart" enough to distinguish between "Jihadi John" and Alan Henning. #ISIL #Iraq
Trudeau is criticised for being a pretty boy and/or an empty suit - so far that is working with the voters, but the Lib's support may fall when he comes under more scrutiny during the campaign proper.
NDP trailing in third have taken the radical step of starting to announce policies - and slagging off the other two parties' leaders. They'll need a big bounce to get back into the top two.
Basically, a 14 month election campaign has just started, and it's the pretty boy's to lose.
Rooting for Spurs tomorrow, but don't give you much hope.
She then gave me a free doughnut!
I once met a woman who had a letter W tattooed onto each buttock. When she bent over - WOW!
Quebec has far, far more power than Scotland. In fact, it has more power than the UK to control its own destiny.
For example, immigration to Quebec is completely under the control of the Gouvernement du Quebec.
And of course, the oil is in Alberta. It is not in Quebec. Quebec benefits from cheaper oil by being in Canada.
26/09/2014 09:08
Glad to see there's no terror alerts on London subway - only New York & Paris. Must be because we haven't bombed Iraq.... Yet. Oh. #ISIL
I put the Lovelace numbers through Baxter and came up with the following:
Liberal Democrat 613
Labour 18
Irish MPs 18
Nationalist 1
So that's an LD majority of 576 which should be enough to be going on with.
I'm sure we'd all be happy with that outcome next May.
Vauxhall warn owners of 3,000 Adam and Corsa cars registered from May 2014 not to drive them due to steering problem
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29387561
5/6 each of two whether that or the Iraq bombing will get most headlines
(Why is Al Qaeda abbreviated AQ? You normally do not abbreviate the word for "the", so it should just be Q.)
"NHS England has agreed to fund proton beam therapy for Ashya (King) under the reciprocal healthcare arrangements that exist within the EU, on the basis that the five-year-old needs a course of radiotherapy as a matter of urgency and, if he is to recover, he must have it now in Prague, where he has been taken by his family.”
Which of the several cans of worms will be opened first?
I'm crap with teenagers - but oddly I can almost always get kids from about 8mth-5yrs to stop grizzling/being a pain by treating them as I'd address a young dog or cat.
It's most peculiar. I assume there's some very basic psychology at play here. I'm very good with truculent/nervous animals - guess it's all the same thing underneath. Have you met any toddlers recently?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29366007
But I doubt he will call a vote on it.
"Patients are being neglected, hygiene is inadequate and staffing problems are affecting care at the only NHS hospital run by a private company, the health service care watchdog has found."
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/26/care-quality-commission-hinchingbrooke-hospital
"Where are you from, mate?"
I explained I lived in Liverpool.
"No, where are you really from?"
I'm white but they're not familiar with a Lincolnshire accent.
Is that racist?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYn0lTeFNV4
The MSM are just trying this on as an attack line. If it doesn't work they'll be back to 'once owned a golliwog in 1972' revelations.
I had a number of thoughtful conversations on this and that with delegates, who were happy to chat even when I mentioned my private Labour activities - as in the Tory conference, mild amusement is the usual reaction. It still felt somewhat less professional and focused on winning than the Labour conference, but it was notably more mainstream than last year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYn0lTeFNV4
The MSM are just trying this on as an attack line. If it doesn't work they'll be back to 'once owned a golliwog in 1972' revelations.
That's already started, see down thread
If I was in India and someone asked me where I was from, even if I was born there - I'd say England. It's not racist or anything else - it's simply a statement of cultural links not geographical birth certificate.
My uncle Bart was from Sierra Leone. My cousins when asked where they were from replied Cresswell, and then Sierra Leone to explain their family background.
I just get so ticked off with the silly and IMO OTT PCness about this. Own it, live it, love it... and join our gang in the UK.
Still, at least the Guardian is good for confirmation bias, eh?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-29376288
So after May, he'll be able to concentrate full time on his role as a councillor.
A slingshot's the best method. Or perhaps Mr Dancer's space cannon can be targeted on Eisenach.
I don't religiously usually follow such things, but this is the first time I can remember a do-not-drive notice being given. Whatever the problem is, it must be serious. But probably not as tragically awful as the GM ignition problems ...
And by the looks of it, 100% of the privately run ones?
Of course....What is Santa Clause bringing you this year?
Also note that this is a leak of an early-stage report, before the hospital has had a chance to respond. Let's see the reports at the same stage from all hospitals, eh?
(That is said semi-seriously. The longer reports are kept hidden, the greater the chance that the defects will be hidden).
It's rubbish because the doctors and nurses are actually clueless?
It's rubbish because it was always rubbish even in the public sector?
Admittedly I am assuming it was northern pensioners that asked him six times, but it was a ukip meeting up North... If it was the UKIP youth wing, which seem to me to be youngish Chelsea types then it's a bit worrying!
£700.
I'm still in shock.
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/515168620490797058
I've a visceral dislike of identity politics. And race card playing. The enormous number of new arrivals has skewed the whole issue. AFAIC, if you want to live here, then accept being British. Not some quasi-subset that enables you to claim to be British-XXX instead.
The US is chockful of those who want to posture as some Roots throw-back, and pretend to be Chicken George. It's risible and I want none of this here. Youths calling the coppers here *Feds* is just laughable and a very sad state of affairs.
Labour will still probably win the seat back, though.
That said, given the steelworks partially reopened during this Parliament, if I was the LD candidate, I'd be trying to capitalise.
Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.
Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.
Just thinking - is this the first time the RAF has been given a mission to go and drop bombs on British citizens?
Not that I'm bothered, they can drop fuel-air bombs on them and bayonet what's left, as far as I'm concerned.
That reminds me in Libya, where I remembered seeing on the tv coverage the final days of Gaddafi, where you would catch these random armed "blokes", who clearly weren't Libyan wandering around "discussing" with rebels. The report would say the rebels had met some resistance, but that had been sorted now. Magically no resistance anymore, only flattened areas.
I will believe it when I see it. All politicians seem to think they can just magic 100-200k homes out of thin air.
I'd love to understand this better. I felt 6 months ago that I knew what Brand Kipper was - now I've no idea.
Looked at Populus opinion poll (19th - 21st September) and uncovered the following
Tory: Unweighted: 437: Weighted: 462
Labo: Unweighted:575: Weighted : 544
Libs: Unweighted: 107: Weighted: 138
UKIP: Unweighted: 347: Weighted: 175
However looking at the Yorkshire Area we get:
Tory: Weighted: 50; Unweighted : 47
Labo: weighted: 48: Unweighted : 51
Libs: Weighted: 23: Unweighted : 18
UKIP: Weighted: 29: Unweighted : 58
I hope I am right in that the unweighted vote is the actual people polled.
Add in that UKIP is more popular (as a percentage of class voting intention) than Labour in the C2DE class and you may begin to realise why Labour is getting worried.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYn0lTeFNV4
The MSM are just trying this on as an attack line. If it doesn't work they'll be back to 'once owned a golliwog in 1972' revelations.
I'm pretty strongly free trade, but it seems absurd to me that that means you shouldn't criticise any element of any trade agreement. There seem to be several concerning elements to the TTIP, particularly around data retention, and I'd like to hear the argument from both sides more. Sadly, to date, the mainstream media hasn't done the issue justice.
You do wonder why Saudi has all that military hardware.
I can only imagine it's a combination of (a) seeing everything through the lens of the 2003 Iraq War and overgeneralising the lessons from that, (b) being so anti-establishment they take up every anti-establishment cause and (c) feeling that if something's difficult we should just not get involved, in the misbelief that it then won't affect us.
As for those so called British citizens fighting for IS, reintroduction of High Treason and a long drop from a rope should be what awaits any who are stupid enough ever to return to the UK. However being a civilised country we will no doubt spend £millions giving them a trial, defended at public expense by the likes of that Gareth woman who defended all the IRA killers and then we will spend £50k+ a year keeping them in jail while all the money wasted on giving them justice could better be spent keeping thousands of loyal, hardworking elderly in greater comfort. Let's just hope most of those so called Brits fighting for IS are on the receiving end of US, UK and allied bombs.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/25/panic-over-ukip-spread-labour-ed-miliband-nigel-farage
The reason I ask, is that I've been struggling over a similar decision. However, I'm now sufficiently horrified by the prospect of what a Miliband government might mean that (if I had to pick) I'd pick the devil over the deep blue sea.
What I wouldn't do is re-join the party, campaign for them or give them any money, though.
1) People are war weary. It's been 45 years since this country was not facing a terrorist threat for any extended period.
2) Iraq was a watershed after which the British Government could no longer be trusted to lead the nation into 'righteous wars'. It humiliated this country.
3) This government's foreign policy is a mess. Libya is turning into a new Iraq, Syria was a farce and the interference in Ukraine is distinctly dubious.
4) After almost 15 years in Afghanistan the Taliban are likely to return when the UK and US move out
5) The decision to send in 6 jets only to bomb in Iraq sounds like a typical Cameron tokenist PR stunt. It is neither adequate nor reflective of prior UK responses. The proposal does not make sense and many have suggested it won't work.
6) Too much blood and treasure has already been spent in the middle east region by this country
7) People fear that there will be mission creep and we will become much heavily involved with further expending of blood and treasure
Whatever the fine (and I do not deny they are fine) intentions of our leaders when they embark on these adventures they never, ever end well. This will be no different.
Oh and since you name Saudi it is worth mentioning that they are considered to be one of the main suppliers of support to ISIS and also the conduit for much of the black market oil that has been helping to keep ISIS running.
Depends what you mean by British citizens. Firstly, they are not being explicitly targeted: only those that adhere to or are part of IS.
Secondly, yes, the RAF has deliberately targeted British subjects before in the name of peacekeeping. For example, rebels in Iraq and the North-West Frontier of India between the wars.
It's complex, but, I'm edging towards not just bombing ISIL, but going for a full on, boots on the ground, kick ass, shock and awe kill fest.
But, then, I'm not the one who's going to be at the sharp end.
I know a lot of forces people, a few of the Stopper clan are in various branches, including two young nephews who would expect to be at the tip of the spear, if it does escalate, and a close friend who can shoot the balls off a gnat from a mile away, after having crawled on his belly for 5 days to get in position. These are the people who will be playing out the policy that Whitehall, and the voting public, demanding something, anything, want actioning. Other people's sons, brothers, husbands, and yes, now daughters, wives, sisters. It's easy to be an armchair general.
If we accept that we are at least partly responsible for the state of things in Iraq (cheers, Tony),what do we do about it? I think we have a duty to clear up the mess we made, and that is going to take a lot of blood and treasure. We also have to separate the crazy islamist psychopaths from the majority of muslims, but that is difficult, given that our actions tend to radicalise rather than create harmony. Maybe we have to accept that protecting ourselves will offend some people?
Make no bones about it, it is going to be bloody. It's going to have to be a full on war, it needs to be a full on war. What my friends and family don't want, is a hands-tied-behind-their-back- police action, where they end up stuck in theatre, a war of attrition, to be maimed and killed by IEDs and suicide bombers and then to withdraw ignominiously a decade later. If they're to fight a war, let them fight it.
It's the aftermath that will be the problem. Say we beat ISIL, what next? What Islamist group will spring up next, to take their place? Where wil we have to intervene next?
But if we do nothing, what next?
These things always always end in "next".