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Kwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,436
    edited September 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    Freefloating into oblivion?
    Sterling used to be $5, then $2, and its now been approaching parity for a while.

    It wouldn't surprise me if in my lifetime £1 = $0.20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MISTY said:

    In the real world, the media has not managed find one current senior tory to go on the record to criticise Truss and Kwarteng. Not effing one.

    They have seen how Sunak's alleged disloyalty scuppered his bid. Wallace is keeping his head down and concentrating on Ukr, and possibly musing on the fact that the voluntary non-stander in 2016 was the winner in 2019. Cometh the hour...
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited September 2022
    If Starmer wants to seal the deal with the red wall, he should put up giant posters of him and Rayner taking the knee in 2020, all over the north.

    Game over.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    Dynamo said:

    Italy and Turkey did not have nuclear weapons on their soil throughout the cold war, and the idea that the missiles in Turkey (which had been placed there in 1961 if I recall correctly) were due for removal anyway, was just a bullsh*t line that the western governments told their home market. For another line of the same type, see the idea that Greville Wynne was just an innocent businessman innocently caught in a spy flap and the only reason Britain agreed to swap him for Konon Molody aka Gordon Lonsdale was to let the Soviets save face. Hahaha! Sixty years later and you still believe this crap.
    Go away Troll.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    BTW just out of interest, esteemed leporid, what's that squiggle in a box after your post mean, please?
    It is a Face Holding Back Tears emoji, it seems. Shows up on my phone, empty square on desktop.
  • 9 times out of 10 I’d agree with you. But I dunno, this really does feel very different. It’s the very real economic pain that will prevent the normally highly dependable swingback.

    Maybe the Con DKs won’t end up voting Labour, but I expect a late LD surge and a heck of a lot of Con2019 abstentions. Meanwhile, Lab, SNP and LD abstentions from 2019 are likely to be back with a bang. Especially the Lab ones (Corbyn bounceback).
    Time will tell, but without Labour making big inroads in Scotland, I will not be rushing to back them to win an overall majority
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,633
    kinabalu said:

    But he still gets his majority govt, doesn't he? Just with a pledge to hold a Ref on PR - with a Yes implemented for the next election. Wouldn't that be the route?
    PR does not benefit Labour or the Tories.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    IshmaelZ said:

    It is a Face Holding Back Tears emoji, it seems. Shows up on my phone, empty square on desktop.
    Ah, thanks.
  • I love the smell of BritNat complacency in the morning.
    "Vote SNP, get Truss!"
  • Chris said:

    Some people here seem to be incredibly blasé about the immediate effects the collapse of the pound and the rise in the cost of borrowing are going to have on actual physical flesh-and-blood people, many of whom were already staring into the abyss because of energy costs alone. Now they are going to be much worse off.

    This is about the lives of millions of real people. It's not some kind of Micky Mouse brainstorming exercise for wet-behind-the-ears self-styled economic theorists, in which they can argue academic points about the definition of success.
    They, or rather we, should be honoured to have our lives blighted by economic hardship in the name of libertarian economic experimentation. Either we get to share in the sunny uplands of a low-tax, high borrowing economy or our collective misery will discredit the whole thing in the eyes of future generations. Liz Truss has afforded us the privilege of serving billions of people, and untold billions yet to come. I think we should be incredibly grateful.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297

    Re a coronation - In the last leadership race however, they were hopelessly split. Who can they actually unite behind?

    Can’t be Rishi - members have just rejected him…

    Appears to me it can only be Wallace*. But he doesn’t want it and it’s a poisoned chalice, particularly when he is perfectly happy doing the job he likes doing at the MOD.

    Penny or Kemi are other options I suppose but they are both relatively inexperienced and the hour would not call for another gamble.

    *or, whisper it, the Rt Hon Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

    Talking about another Tory leader already is one of the silliest things this forum has ever engaged in IMO.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Talking about another Tory leader already is one of the silliest things this forum has ever engaged in IMO.
    Almost as silly as those defending the new clowns who have replaced the clown.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited September 2022

    Re a coronation - In the last leadership race however, they were hopelessly split. Who can they actually unite behind?

    Can’t be Rishi - members have just rejected him…

    Appears to me it can only be Wallace*. But he doesn’t want it and it’s a poisoned chalice, particularly when he is perfectly happy doing the job he likes doing at the MOD.

    Penny or Kemi are other options I suppose but they are both relatively inexperienced and the hour would not call for another gamble.

    *or, whisper it, the Rt Hon Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

    I've bet like fuck against him being the "and whisper it quietly" candidate coming to the 'rescue' this morning.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Re a coronation - In the last leadership race however, they were hopelessly split. Who can they actually unite behind?

    Can’t be Rishi - members have just rejected him…

    Appears to me it can only be Wallace*. But he doesn’t want it and it’s a poisoned chalice, particularly when he is perfectly happy doing the job he likes doing at the MOD.

    Penny or Kemi are other options I suppose but they are both relatively inexperienced and the hour would not call for another gamble.

    *or, whisper it, the Rt Hon Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

    Alistair Meeks (formerly of this parish) suggests Gove....

    I suspect that option is the sane one if it's required...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited September 2022

    "Vote SNP, get Truss!"
    Just thinking that some voters today - their *parents* weren't alive when the original of that was coined by Slab. IN fact, you could add grandparents to that, in a few cases - and it was pretty ripe and cheesy even then.
  • DavidL said:

    Or, more likely, a lot of rewilding, a collapse in domestic production as all our more marginal land falls out of production and an increase in imports.
    The argument of protectionists down the years. So claimed protectionists in New Zealand before the country abolished its subsidies and tariffs, and now our farmers fear free trade with New Zealand as they're an agricultural exporting powerhouse.

    The one thing the country has a very finite supply of is land. Subsidising unproductive, uncompetitive businesses to be using that land does nothing other than lock in a lack of productivity. If those businesses fail, then the land is still there, but its now available to be accessed and used by a potentially more productive, more sustainable enterprise instead. Or the business doesn't fail, and instead adapts.

    Protectionism doesn't work. It never has done.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Unpopular said:

    They, or rather we, should be honoured to have our lives blighted by economic hardship in the name of libertarian economic experimentation. Either we get to share in the sunny uplands of a low-tax, high borrowing economy or our collective misery will discredit the whole thing in the eyes of future generations. Liz Truss has afforded us the privilege of serving billions of people, and untold billions yet to come. I think we should be incredibly grateful.
    The recent discussions on guinea-pigs on this forum seem like an unconscious recognition of your insight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited September 2022

    Almost as silly as those defending the new clowns who have replaced the clown.
    The truth and reality is that all of Truss' opponents used up all their political capital to topple Boris. It ain't happening with Truss, as much as someone might want it to - the thinking is especially wishful today here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    HYUFD said:

    True but at the price of more unstable coalition governments with one party rarely ever winning a majority
    The LibDeml/Conservative coalition under Cameron was a damn sight more stable than the current lot with their huge majority.
    Your point is unconvincing at best; some might think it ludicrous.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
    Absolute nonsense. It's the second most popular sport in the world.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Driver said:

    What about the Z fascists currently on Ukrainian territory?
    Putin has already buggered up Russia's strategic position on nukes - he has no power to stop them being stationed on the newly NATO-ed soil of Finland and Sweden. St Petersburg is now 40 km from a NATO nuke.

    Brilliant, Putin, brilliant.....
  • GOP planning same rubbish as Truss:

    "we now have four decades’ worth of experience showing that deregulation and tax cuts for the rich do not, in fact, produce higher wages and faster economic growth. So the idea that tax cuts are the secret of prosperity should be dead, yet somehow it’s still shambling along, eating Republican brains."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/opinion/gop-economic-policy.html
  • Pulpstar said:

    The truth and reality is that all of Truss' opponents used up all their political capital to topple Boris. It ain't happening with Truss, as much as someone might want it to - the thinking is especially wishful today here.
    Boris had years of his critics going on TV and calling him out in public. So did May. All toppled PMs have.

    All Truss is facing is anonymous "a former Tory Minister says ..." off the record briefings.

    That's not even going to start troubling her. Its clickbait nonsense. She'll be PM at the next election.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    What? 🥹
    :smile: - Fair enough.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Pulpstar said:

    The truth and reality is that all of Truss' opponents used up all their political capital to topple Boris.

    BoZo toppled himself
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Hmm

    "Over millions of years, Britain’s landmass has been buried, lifted back up, buried again and eroded. This complex geological history has provided many opportunities for gas to leak away through the country’s many faults and cracks so that only the dregs remain. If the UK wants to develop a major US-style fracking industry, it is 280 million years too late. "

    https://theconversation.com/fracking-if-liz-truss-wants-a-major-shale-gas-industry-she-is-280-million-years-late-190421?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    The weather atm must be colder than average for the time of year. Bit of a shock to the system after 40 degrees a few weeks ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    PR does not benefit Labour or the Tories.
    Just democracy.
    Which is rather the point.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402

    Huh? Are you sure? I always thought that Fagus sylvatica was one of the shorter-lived of the large forest broadleaves.

    Or maybe that only applies outwith its natural range, eg in Scotland, where it is a notoriously fragile and sick pest.
    Although the Forestry Commission is a bit snooty about whether beech is native to Scotland, the ones at Craigevar seem to be anything but fragile and are apparently over 200 years old. Mind you the Oaks are much more impressive and they can easily be double that age.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    Re a coronation - In the last leadership race however, they were hopelessly split. Who can they actually unite behind?

    Can’t be Rishi - members have just rejected him…

    Appears to me it can only be Wallace*. But he doesn’t want it and it’s a poisoned chalice, particularly when he is perfectly happy doing the job he likes doing at the MOD.

    Penny or Kemi are other options I suppose but they are both relatively inexperienced and the hour would not call for another gamble.

    *or, whisper it, the Rt Hon Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

    Gove?
  • Almost as silly as those defending the new clowns who have replaced the clown.
    Clown and Out!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC6YPQY0_28
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964
    Chris said:

    Some people here seem to be incredibly blasé about the immediate effects the collapse of the pound and the rise in the cost of borrowing are going to have on actual physical flesh-and-blood people, many of whom were already staring into the abyss because of energy costs alone. Now they are going to be much worse off.

    This is about the lives of millions of real people. It's not some kind of Micky Mouse brainstorming exercise for wet-behind-the-ears self-styled economic theorists, in which they can argue academic points about the definition of success.
    Some people are a bit blasé, eh? Probably those people who are grossly overpaid for what they do, often by foreign firms, who are non-dom and have incredible tax-dodges to preserve their fortunes. People here on PB who are in a similar fortunate position as Kwasi, Mogg, Johnson, Sunak, Braverman.... The list is long, and they all have the same profile.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
    Not sure how you come to that conclusion. Cricket is more popular than it's been for a while, especially with interest in the women's game.
  • Absolute nonsense. It's the second most popular sport in the world.
    It's also the most boring sport in the world...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    Sterling used to be $5, then $2, and its now been approaching parity for a while.

    It wouldn't surprise me if in my lifetime £1 = $0.20
    Talk about expectations management. Hats off!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    And all the usual suspects are saying “no, no, they MEANT to do that, it’s a great thing”.

    Trying to style out their tragicomic prat fall. ~AA


    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1574733456088727553
  • Cicero said:

    In two words: confidence and capacity.

    The long term productivity numbers show that there has been insufficient investment in the UK over the past 30-odd years, so lower currency rates do not improve the competitive position of the economy sufficient to trigger growth. The economic capacity, especially the industrial capacity, is too small and too weak for Sterling based assets alone to restore a stable growth rate. The negative view of the country means that it would take a very long time to gain inward investment, especially as we are not in the single market.

    The impact of a collapse of confidence in the UK means that we can no longer afford so many imports but do not have the capacity for import substitution and there will be a persistent investment gap. So the most likely impact is a very long and very deep depression.
    Hard to grasp why this apparently is hard to grasp. The US Dollar is *the* global reserve currency. The exchange rate of other currencies against it matters, especially when yours is one of the other leading global currencies.

    Yesterday we fell to our lowest exchange rate against the dollar since its creation. That is not a position that global traders believe to be tenable - they do not have confidence in what a growing number of very senior global finance figures have described in various kinds of choice language.

    BR is one of these England uber Alles lunatics. Remember how people said bin the EEA and lets go WTO? Then tried to lecture the WTO on how the WTO worked when it was made clear to them that there are rules for global trade. Same moronity on display here.

    What is the Pound? It is fiat - it only has the value that the confidence of others grant it. We have to pay our taxes in it, creditors receive their gilt interest payments in it. Confidence creates value. Take the confidence away by being bloody stupid and your scrip may not even have the value of the polymer its printed on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    In latest Brexit Bonus news, Eurostar say they have to reduce the number of trains and increase fares, because Brexit has significantly reduced capacity at St Pancras International. ~AA

    https://twitter.com/eurostarjustinp/status/1574711574337495041
  • Quite a good blog on Truss/Kwarteng:

    https://keirbradwell.substack.com/p/2-kwartengs-plan

    Government after government has failed to do nearly enough about the supply side of the British economy. Reams have been written, far more eloquently than I can manage, about how this inaction has trapped us, time and time again, into choices we don’t want to have to make, on public services and elsewhere. It has trapped us into falling ever further behind America in our living standards. And it has nudged us into accepting relative decline as the norm and the future of Britain.

    Until now, nobody has truly dared tackle this head-on. But we have finally found a PM and chancellor willing to do so. And yet for whatever reason — perhaps simply because we cannot get our heads around the reorganisation they have in mind — we are risking making it politically impossible before they have even begun to try.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Andy_JS said:

    Talking about another Tory leader already is one of the silliest things this forum has ever engaged in IMO.
    You don't know how pissed off the Tory MPs are though....

    They are the ones already sending in letters/plotting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Andy_JS said:

    The weather atm must be colder than average for the time of year. Bit of a shock to the system after 40 degrees a few weeks ago.

    It really is. I'm sat here shivering.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    Unpopular said:

    They, or rather we, should be honoured to have our lives blighted by economic hardship in the name of libertarian economic experimentation. Either we get to share in the sunny uplands of a low-tax, high borrowing economy or our collective misery will discredit the whole thing in the eyes of future generations. Liz Truss has afforded us the privilege of serving billions of people, and untold billions yet to come. I think we should be incredibly grateful.
    Maybe that's the best way of looking at it.

    And respect to Truss and Kwarteng for their bravery too. After they've finished with the country, it will probably be too poor to pay for the round-the-clock police protection they will need in retirement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    Dynamo said:

    Is Dmitry Medvedev signalling a concession by Russia when he says Russia won't tolerate nuclear weapons being put in NATO-controlled Ukraine?
    ...

    Is Dmitry Medvedev sober ?

    It's yet to be established that his opinions carry any more weight than those of the average PB commenter. Probably less.
  • Re a coronation - In the last leadership race however, they were hopelessly split. Who can they actually unite behind?

    Can’t be Rishi - members have just rejected him…

    Appears to me it can only be Wallace*. But he doesn’t want it and it’s a poisoned chalice, particularly when he is perfectly happy doing the job he likes doing at the MOD.

    Penny or Kemi are other options I suppose but they are both relatively inexperienced and the hour would not call for another gamble.

    *or, whisper it, the Rt Hon Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

    Fuck the members. MPs always used to have primacy. Take that power back. Simply impose the correct candidate and challenge the members to see them in court if they live long enough.

    Members aren't the problem - donors are. A small coterie plan to become very rich on the backs of destroying Britain, and they will withdraw their bungs if the party switches off their profits machine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Tories announce slogan of their own conference is next week is “getting Britain moving.”

    Presumably signed off before mortage providers shut up shop.


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1574736184999571461/photo/1
  • MISTY said:

    If Starmer wants to seal the deal with the red wall, he should put up giant posters of him and Rayner taking the knee in 2020, all over the north.

    Game over.

    So when the alternative is vote for the people who saw you lose your house and took away your hope of a decent job with decent pay and conditions, or vote Labour, your argument is that fear of woke will make people vote for the agents of their own destruction?

    Doesn't sound like the red wall I know.
  • kinabalu said:

    Gove?
    It would be saying "we know we're doomed in 2024, but let us embrace the doom with a degree of grace."

    (For all the hype of Truss trashing the joint before the next GE, nothing needing controversial laws can happen, because there really isn't the time.)

    I'd still prefer May to be the Caretaker/Chief Lemming. If only to see Boris's face as she gently overtakes him in the Prime Ministerial tenure chart.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The Nordstream story is gathering steam if you'll excuse the pun. Bubbles reaching the surface of the sea over diameter of 100M suggesting a very big breach and 'accidental' is no longer being considered.
    Europe is fucked this winter. Properly fucked. Imo scenarios leading to the collapse of the EU have moved from ridiculous and implausible to very outside possibility.
  • eek said:

    Alistair Meeks (formerly of this parish) suggests Gove....

    I suspect that option is the sane one if it's required...
    What is Ravey's safe dose of turkish before he goes off his tits? Like a Tribble, keep him below his limit and I sure he will be fine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Quite a good blog on Truss/Kwarteng:

    https://keirbradwell.substack.com/p/2-kwartengs-plan

    Government after government has failed to do nearly enough about the supply side of the British economy. Reams have been written, far more eloquently than I can manage, about how this inaction has trapped us, time and time again, into choices we don’t want to have to make, on public services and elsewhere. It has trapped us into falling ever further behind America in our living standards. And it has nudged us into accepting relative decline as the norm and the future of Britain.

    Until now, nobody has truly dared tackle this head-on. But we have finally found a PM and chancellor willing to do so. And yet for whatever reason — perhaps simply because we cannot get our heads around the reorganisation they have in mind — we are risking making it politically impossible before they have even begun to try.

    What is this "reorganisation they have in mind" ?
    Unless it involves rebuilding from the rubble, it certainly wasn't evident in the 'fiscal event'. Which was a large demand stimulus, and very little to do with supply at all.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The truth and reality is that all of Truss' opponents used up all their political capital to topple Boris. It ain't happening with Truss, as much as someone might want it to - the thinking is especially wishful today here.
    I can see a halfway house here. The govt fail to get the votes for the special kamikaze measures through the commons, so put them on hold as an intention when the public finances clearly allow, which the govt will hope they will by April 2023. No need for a new leader or Chancellor and a solid excuse for a clumsy u-turn.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited September 2022

    Sterling used to be $5, then $2, and its now been approaching parity for a while.

    It wouldn't surprise me if in my lifetime £1 = $0.20
    It hasn't been at $5 since before the Second World War, so over 80 years.

    Going from $1 to 20c is the equivalent of going from $5 to $1 (80% loss of value).

    I don't know how old you are, but frankly it would surprise me quite a lot if it got to 20c in any of our lifetimes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    The Nordstream story is gathering steam if you'll excuse the pun. Bubbles reaching the surface of the sea over diameter of 100M suggesting a very big breach and 'accidental' is no longer being considered.
    Europe is fucked this winter. Properly fucked. Imo scenarios leading to the collapse of the EU have moved from ridiculous and implausible to very outside possibility.

    One of the oligarch's "yachts" had a capacity to cut seabed fibre optic cables. If Russia wanted to, it knows exactly where the pipelines sit. But probably not alone. Great scope for everyone to be paranoid about what is going on. (Personally, for maximum mischief, I favour it being SPECTRE.)

    Won't be an easy repair, especially with winter coming on.
  • MoE

    Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.

    SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
    The whole of PB were not excited about a Labour poll lead. Yet another gross exaggeration and typical.of the site.
  • Nigelb said:

    What is this "reorganisation they have in mind" ?
    Unless it involves rebuilding from the rubble, it certainly wasn't evident in the 'fiscal event'. Which was a large demand stimulus, and very little to do with supply at all.
    The reorganisation is to further steal from the middle to make the very richest even richer.
  • You don't know how pissed off the Tory MPs are though....

    They are the ones already sending in letters/plotting.
    Well we know not even a single Tory MP seems to be pissed off enough to say anything on camera, as Aaron Bell MP did at the turn of the year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo toppled himself
    And it took absolubtely ages after he was shown to be clearly unfit for the office. A General Election arrives before that point in this cycle.
    Let's look at this historically, has there ever been a PM midterm who has replaced another PM who has NOT gone on to fight a General Election ?
    I mean I think I've found George Canning & Viscount Goderich , but Canning died in office and Goderich invited the opposition into his gov't. Truss looks in good enough health, and I can't see her inviting Wes Streeting and Ed Davey into her Gov't - which is what the Earl of Ripon looks to have done. And that's going back to the early 19th century.
    Maybe there's more, but I haven't found them scanning the PM lists...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615

    Huh? Are you sure? I always thought that Fagus sylvatica was one of the shorter-lived of the large forest broadleaves.

    Or maybe that only applies outwith its natural range, eg in Scotland, where it is a notoriously fragile and sick pest.
    Aren’t you confusing Fagus sylvatica with Labourus scotticus?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964

    Well we know not even a single Tory MP seems to be pissed off enough to say anything on camera, as Aaron Bell MP did at the turn of the year.
    Give them a chance, Mr Roberts. Some of them are a bit slow in the uptake. Remember that your friend Kwasi was the pick of the bunch.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    One of the oligarch's "yachts" had a capacity to cut seabed fibre optic cables. If Russia wanted to, it knows exactly where the pipelines sit. But probably not alone. Great scope for everyone to be paranoid about what is going on. (Personally, for maximum mischief, I favour it being SPECTRE.)

    Won't be an easy repair, especially with winter coming on.
    If it needs turning off and a complicated repair, the EU will end up effectively criminalising turning up the heating and staying warm in an effort to meet energy use reduction targets and have rolling blackouts. Thats when the race for the exit will pick up pace.
    Im intensely relaxed about my mass civil unrest in the EU prediction whilst being intensely concerned at its possibility
  • It hasn't been at $5 since before the Second World War, so over 80 years.

    Going from $1 to 20c is the equivalent of going from $5 to $1 (80% loss of value).

    I don't know how old you are, but frankly it would surprise me quite a lot if it got to 20c in any of our lifetimes.
    Its taken about 15 years to get from $2 to almost parity, and doesn't seem to show any sign of slowing down.

    At that rate, we could see the 50 cent jokes become reality in another fifteen, within 30 years we're at what they call a quarter. Then just a few more takes us to 20c.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    I can see a halfway house here. The govt fail to get the votes for the special kamikaze measures through the commons, so put them on hold as an intention when the public finances clearly allow, which the govt will hope they will by April 2023. No need for a new leader or Chancellor and a solid excuse for a clumsy u-turn.
    It's possible, every single Tory has had great experience of practising & defending u-turns during the Johnson ministry.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    Interesting apparent paradox - LOTO must involve the identification of a specific party, and therefore the LB constitution is relevant; but PM doesn't - slightly paradoxically: the PM is whomsoever the house as a whole will reliably vote for. Hell, Ms Lucas could in principle be PM.
    Very good point
  • Irish budget has just zero-rated VAT on newspapers, defibrillators, period products, nicotine patches and hormone replacement patches. Who knew this was possible while a member of the EU?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Well we know not even a single Tory MP seems to be pissed off enough to say anything on camera, as Aaron Bell MP did at the turn of the year.
    In da House, which is not sitting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    edited September 2022

    Well we know not even a single Tory MP seems to be pissed off enough to say anything on camera, as Aaron Bell MP did at the turn of the year.
    We just aren't party to the internal Tory whatsapp groups....

    Start with all those Rishi Sunak supporters. "We f*cking TOLD you. Tw@s....."

    The Penny Mordaunt supporters won't be far behind. That's 2/3rds of Tory MPs.

    God alone knows what the Truss backers are making of it. They aren't rushing to the media to defend her.

    The discipline for once will be in making this a very private event. The quieter it is, the more is going on. The issue is - who do the pissed off get behind? If Wallace very discretely was asked - and equally discretely indicated he would take the job if it would save the Party - then Truss is basically on 24 hours notice.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,436
    edited September 2022
    ClippP said:

    Give them a chance, Mr Roberts. Some of them are a bit slow in the uptake. Remember that your friend Kwasi was the pick of the bunch.
    That's the point though, they've had their chance and after much rigmarole they got rid of Boris. That trigger has been pulled already.

    How much time do you want to give them for a chance? 3 years? We'll be past the next election by then.

    If they want to start mutterings about being unhappy leading to plots etc, they're not even at the "willing to say anything in public" stage yet, let alone credible threats. There simply isn't time before the next election for another leadership election, talk of Truss being gone by Conference 23 is pure hopecasting.
  • Quite a good blog on Truss/Kwarteng:

    https://keirbradwell.substack.com/p/2-kwartengs-plan

    Government after government has failed to do nearly enough about the supply side of the British economy. Reams have been written, far more eloquently than I can manage, about how this inaction has trapped us, time and time again, into choices we don’t want to have to make, on public services and elsewhere. It has trapped us into falling ever further behind America in our living standards. And it has nudged us into accepting relative decline as the norm and the future of Britain.

    Until now, nobody has truly dared tackle this head-on. But we have finally found a PM and chancellor willing to do so. And yet for whatever reason — perhaps simply because we cannot get our heads around the reorganisation they have in mind — we are risking making it politically impossible before they have even begun to try.

    Interesting. The gist seems to be that it's all the Bank of England's fault. Presumably the author is a Truss outrider. If so, then the abolition of BoA independence can't be far off.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    That's the point though, they've had their chance and after much rigmarole they got rid of Boris. That trigger has been pulled already.

    How much time do you want to give them for a chance? 3 years? We'll be past the next election by then.

    If they want to start mutterings about being unhappy leading to plots etc, they're not even at the "willing to say anything in public" stage yet, let alone credible threats. There simply isn't time before the next election for another leadership election, talk of Truss being gone by Conference 23 is pure hopecasting.
    Unless she is metaphorically knifed, which might happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Its taken about 15 years to get from $2 to almost parity, and doesn't seem to show any sign of slowing down.

    At that rate, we could see the 50 cent jokes become reality in another fifteen, within 30 years we're at what they call a quarter. Then just a few more takes us to 20c.
    Are you Erdogan in disguise ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    That's the point though, they've had their chance and after much rigmarole they got rid of Boris. That trigger has been pulled already.

    How much time do you want to give them for a chance? 3 years? We'll be past the next election by then.

    If they want to start mutterings about being unhappy leading to plots etc, they're not even at the "willing to say anything in public" stage yet, let alone credible threats. There simply isn't time before the next election for another leadership election, talk of Truss being gone by Conference 23 is pure hopecasting.
    FFS, there isn't going to BE an election that involves the members.

    They have given us this omnishambles. Admittedly, because the MPs effectively gave them a non-choice that would ensure Truss PM.

    Any change of leader will be a Palace of Westminster coup.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Pulpstar said:

    The truth and reality is that all of Truss' opponents used up all their political capital to topple Boris. It ain't happening with Truss, as much as someone might want it to - the thinking is especially wishful today here.
    And, anyhow, a new leader assumes that someone else could turn things around, when the news agenda looks stacked with bad economic news for the foreseeable. If the next election is lost for the Tories, Truss may as well be the one who soaks up the grief, and the others can focus on staking out whatever nutty agenda might secure them the LOTO job after 2024. The only argument for replacing her early is if she really is determined to turn the ship directly toward the iceberg.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,712

    Irish budget has just zero-rated VAT on newspapers, defibrillators, period products, nicotine patches and hormone replacement patches. Who knew this was possible while a member of the EU?

    It wasn't, in 2016. EU Legislation has since changed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    The reorganisation is to further steal from the middle to make the very richest even richer.
    You might so characterise it, but I was looking at it on its own terms.
    The only thing of potentially great significance is the enterprise zones. But there is so far little or no detail on what these will encompass, and when they might come in.

    It's asking us to take a lot on trust, and the example of the top rate tax cut (included in the blog's list of 'supply side measures') - which every independent analysis has said won't have the effect it was intended to have - doesn't inspire confidence at all.

    That they didn't consult, and refused to publish OBR forecasts compounded the error.

    The real criticism is not that one disagrees with the politics - that's understood - but that it leaves the majority even of the government's own supporters unconvinced by the ideas.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    It hasn't been at $5 since before the Second World War, so over 80 years.

    Going from $1 to 20c is the equivalent of going from $5 to $1 (80% loss of value).

    I don't know how old you are, but frankly it would surprise me quite a lot if it got to 20c in any of our lifetimes.
    i dont think the exchange rate is going to swing many votes. households seeing big increases in mortgage repayments when they come to renew definitely will. and that will be a lot of households if the next election isnt until late 2024. cutting your tax by £50pm when your mortgage is up £200pm is not a vote winner.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Kwasi met with city folks this morning and assured them he was right...

    Which is nice
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has told City investors that he is "confident" in the Government's long-term plan for growth after the markets reacted badly to Friday's fiscal event

    For more on this and other news visit http://trib.al/Rx0iR33
  • PR does not benefit Labour or the Tories.
    Good for the country then.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Friday:

    ‘Cuts to stamp duty will get the housing market moving and support first-time buyers’
    -Kwasi Kwarteng

    Tuesday:

    ‘300 mortgage deals have been pulled by banks and building societies after fall in the pound fuelled forecasts of jump in interest rates to nearly 6%’
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Nigelb said:

    I take serious issue with the "because" in this, as it's simply not established.
    But the basic point isn't going to go away without some explanation or debunking.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardGCorbett/status/1574441477463314432
    An international banker friend tells me:

    “The hedge funds made a ton of money because they met up with #KwasiKwarteng 3 days before the announcement and they shorted Sterling big time - isn’t that insider trading in a mega way? I am appalled”

    A currency is not a financial instrument for the purpose of the FCA's Market Abuse Regulation. Though some of the trading may well have been in instruments which do fall within the definition.

    But the wider point is the more damaging one and it is that it looks as if the Tories are governing only for a select and wealthy elite (the tax cuts and bonus caps) with whom they are friendly and who then make money trading in a way which leads to interest rate rises in a way which harms others.

    It feels similar to all those PPE contracts being given to friends of Tories and to their mates being given honours and positions in public bodies.

    Criminality is not necessary for this "for the few not the many" perception to damage the Tory party.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories announce slogan of their own conference is next week is “getting Britain moving.”

    Presumably signed off before mortage providers shut up shop.


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1574736184999571461/photo/1

    A better approximation of what is happening is "getting bowels moving...."
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,615
    It’s in the country’s long term interests for Truss and Kwarteng to stay in place until the next GE. It will hopefully ensure that the Tories will be hammered, and out of power for years.
    I am actually considering voting Labour at the next GE. There is no chance of Scottish independence for at least 10 years after Sturgeon and her acolytes are removed from the SNP leadership, and losing seats to Labour is the only way that can happen. Labour winning some seats in Scotland will help them win an overall majority.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Simply Red are going to be back at No1...

    The US “starve the beast” theory feels relevant in the context of the Tory election: the belief that cutting taxes will automatically lead to lower public spending as revenue is restricted. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1546952103477886977/photo/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    So probably not just dodgy build quality, after all.

    https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1574717885016154117
    BREAKING: Germany suspects damage to Nord Stream pipeline is the result of sabotage - Bloomberg
  • Watching the news, all those NASA arseholes jizzing themselves over inflicting damage to an asteroid.

    Bunch of twats.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    One of the cui bono answers.

    https://twitter.com/LawyerForFuture/status/1574701718838943745
    If Gazprom ever sells gas to Europe again they will face huge damage claims from gas importers like Uniper for broken contracts. Now Gazprom can shield themselves from that for the time until the repair of these new leaks of NS1 & 2 because now it’s force majeure.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Quite a good blog on Truss/Kwarteng:

    https://keirbradwell.substack.com/p/2-kwartengs-plan

    Government after government has failed to do nearly enough about the supply side of the British economy. Reams have been written, far more eloquently than I can manage, about how this inaction has trapped us, time and time again, into choices we don’t want to have to make, on public services and elsewhere. It has trapped us into falling ever further behind America in our living standards. And it has nudged us into accepting relative decline as the norm and the future of Britain.

    Until now, nobody has truly dared tackle this head-on. But we have finally found a PM and chancellor willing to do so. And yet for whatever reason — perhaps simply because we cannot get our heads around the reorganisation they have in mind — we are risking making it politically impossible before they have even begun to try.

    That, at least, is a load of waffle just because there were no supply side reforms, just a bunch of tax cuts which will push up demand.

    I'm all in favour of supply side reforms and pushing up business investment, there's was very little in the Friday statement that actually achieves any supply side fix.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited September 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Tories announce slogan of their own conference is next week is “getting Britain moving.”



    Because Brits can no longer afford our homes?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Kwasi Kwarteng has told asset management and insurance firms he is "confident in our long-term strategy to drive economic growth", despite turbulence in the money markets.

    Also says the government is "committed to fiscal discipline", despite borrowing billions to fund tax cuts.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1574743837527797760

    UK markets have lost at least $500 billion in combined value since Liz Truss took over as prime minister https://trib.al/OcpmAAt https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1574711691522281479/photo/1
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Nigelb said:

    So probably not just dodgy build quality, after all.

    https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1574717885016154117
    BREAKING: Germany suspects damage to Nord Stream pipeline is the result of sabotage - Bloomberg

    Not really surprising. Not likely both would be damaged simultaneously. I'm still of a view that this is a good thing in the long term. Main question is - whodunnit?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    Posting this as it highlights the problem Kawsi and Truss have created regarding any Scottish independence vote...


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited September 2022

    It’s in the country’s long term interests for Truss and Kwarteng to stay in place until the next GE. It will hopefully ensure that the Tories will be hammered, and out of power for years.
    I am actually considering voting Labour at the next GE. There is no chance of Scottish independence for at least 10 years after Sturgeon and her acolytes are removed from the SNP leadership, and losing seats to Labour is the only way that can happen. Labour winning some seats in Scotland will help them win an overall majority.

    Labour gaining partially at the expense of the SNP might hand the SCons a few seats, however - in Ayrshire etc
  • FFS, there isn't going to BE an election that involves the members.

    They have given us this omnishambles. Admittedly, because the MPs effectively gave them a non-choice that would ensure Truss PM.

    Any change of leader will be a Palace of Westminster coup.
    There isn't going to be an election, because there isn't going to be a coup. There's no unanimity amongst MPs and so there will have to be a leadership election if Truss falls, which will stay the hands of any would-be assassins.

    This is it now. Truss is leader, until the next General Election at least.

    And a damn fine one I think she will be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    Dynamo said:

    Italy and Turkey did not have nuclear weapons on their soil throughout the cold war, and the idea that the missiles in Turkey (which had been placed there in 1961 if I recall correctly) were due for removal anyway, was just a bullsh*t line that the western governments told their home market. For another line of the same type, see the idea that Greville Wynne was just an innocent businessman innocently caught in a spy flap and the only reason Britain agreed to swap him for Konon Molody aka Gordon Lonsdale was to let the Soviets save face. Hahaha! Sixty years later and you still believe this crap.
    The withdrawal of Jupiters was announced in the US as part of the McNamara reforms of the nuclear triad, before Cuba etc. The "cuts" upset quite a few congress critters - since the concentration of spending on a smaller number of weapons systems cut the opportunities for pork.

    The Jupiters were replaced with weapons that had better reliability, and better safety. The incident, where a lighting strike started arming the warhead of a missile was considered a bit sub optimal.

    The claim that nuclear sharing didn't exit is a strange one - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing

    I think an Italian friend who did his national service relating to - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGR-1_Honest_John would be interested by this. The missile were first deployed there in 1955.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,535
    edited September 2022

    Hard to grasp why this apparently is hard to grasp. The US Dollar is *the* global reserve currency. The exchange rate of other currencies against it matters, especially when yours is one of the other leading global currencies.

    Yesterday we fell to our lowest exchange rate against the dollar since its creation. That is not a position that global traders believe to be tenable - they do not have confidence in what a growing number of very senior global finance figures have described in various kinds of choice language.

    BR is one of these England uber Alles lunatics. Remember how people said bin the EEA and lets go WTO? Then tried to lecture the WTO on how the WTO worked when it was made clear to them that there are rules for global trade. Same moronity on display here.

    What is the Pound? It is fiat - it only has the value that the confidence of others grant it. We have to pay our taxes in it, creditors receive their gilt interest payments in it. Confidence creates value. Take the confidence away by being bloody stupid and your scrip may not even have the value of the polymer its printed on.
    So what you are saying is that there are limits in reality of what we can achieve to grow our economy. Ok. We have a wider problem then: having bankrupted ourselves with 2 World Wars, used North Sea wealth to avoid hard decisions on government expenditure, built a rapacious welfare system and NHS that uses an increasing share of government spending while still not meeting expectations, all while having our tax system take a higher percentage of our income than ever plus borrowing at unsustainable levels - what is the end position going to be? We cannot *CANNOT* continue as we are.

    Either we grow the economy or else economic reality will force 1) an increase in pension age by 10yrs - most people will die while working, 2) a smaller NHS with fewer basic treatment options at end of life - but more support to help people stay in their homes or get back out of hospital, 3) a shift to individual state pension pots funded by our own work history, 4) wealth taxes - the last resort of governments who have run out of all other options. Oh, and we will have to build millions of new houses to force property prices down.

    A very different Britain
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964

    There isn't going to be an election, because there isn't going to be a coup. There's no unanimity amongst MPs and so there will have to be a leadership election if Truss falls, which will stay the hands of any would-be assassins.

    This is it now. Truss is leader, until the next General Election at least.

    And a damn fine one I think she will be.
    For some people....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    NEW: former chief secretary to the Treasury David Gauke calls the government a danger to the country in the @NewStatesman
    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/09/conservatives-lost-fantasy-world-danger-country
  • Quite a good blog on Truss/Kwarteng:

    https://keirbradwell.substack.com/p/2-kwartengs-plan

    Government after government has failed to do nearly enough about the supply side of the British economy. Reams have been written, far more eloquently than I can manage, about how this inaction has trapped us, time and time again, into choices we don’t want to have to make, on public services and elsewhere. It has trapped us into falling ever further behind America in our living standards. And it has nudged us into accepting relative decline as the norm and the future of Britain.

    Until now, nobody has truly dared tackle this head-on. But we have finally found a PM and chancellor willing to do so. And yet for whatever reason — perhaps simply because we cannot get our heads around the reorganisation they have in mind — we are risking making it politically impossible before they have even begun to try.

    Excellent article. Matches my thoughts.

    I like this Tweet in it: https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1573259866801684483

    Sam Bowman 🇺🇦
    @s8mb
    I think this is a "gamble" in the same sense that quitting a job that hasn't given you a pay rise in 10 years is a "gamble".

    The idea that something will come along eventually, without us doing anything different, seems at least as foolhardy as trying to change course like this.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    AlistairM said:

    Not really surprising. Not likely both would be damaged simultaneously. I'm still of a view that this is a good thing in the long term. Main question is - whodunnit?
    Russia because few other people have the means or the motive....

    Yes Ukraine supposedly has a motive but it wouldn't want to annoy anyone supplying it with the arms it needs.
This discussion has been closed.