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Kwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 30 in General
imageKwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit – politicalbetting.com

It was just 3 weeks ago today that Truss learned that she had become Tory leader and the successor to Johnson.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767
    First.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    I don't think either of them will be first out the cabinet.
  • There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't think either of them will be first out the cabinet.

    Sinking ship syndrome? Jump before they are pushed?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    Here's hoping! 👍
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    edited September 27
    She can't get rid of him now and survive, can she?

    What's she going to say? He didn't tell her what he was going to announce? She didn't realise there was anything wrong with it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Truss and Kwarteng are now joined like Johnson and Sunak. If one goes both go, so he probably stays
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    HYUFD said:

    Truss and Kwarteng are now joined like Johnson and Sunak.

    Or Hindley and Brady.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    Depends how bad things get over the next few weeks. It's very possible things could go so badly that getting rid is the better option..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited September 27

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    (FPT) Buttigieg again showing he's the best political communicator in the US.

    https://twitter.com/votevets/status/1574466498332356609

    https://twitter.com/petetidbits/status/1573971037255045120

    If Biden doesn't run again, the Democrats really ought to nominate him.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Traders in the city have coined a nick for Truss: "Daggers" - as in Dagenham, 2 stops past Barking
  • This is nonsense, neither Truss or Kwarteng are going anywhere before the election
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
    I mean, to further this, polling shows generally popular or neutral measures aside from bankers and 45p (forget the overseas vat, nobody is voting or judging overall based on that), yet its worse received than omnishambles etc and has caused an inverse bounce with 3 pollsters. Get rid of the poison.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
  • There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
  • eek said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    Depends how bad things get over the next few weeks. It's very possible things could go so badly that getting rid is the better option..
    Sometimes, dead is better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4Gr3FsJ4A0
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    edited September 27

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
    I mean, to further this, polling shows generally popular or neutral measures aside from bankers and 45p (forget the overseas vat, nobody is voting or judging overall based on that), yet its worse received than omnishambles etc and has caused an inverse bounce with 3 pollsters. Get rid of the poison.
    Which just goes to show the irrationality of the public. The 45% tax rate raises to a reasonable approximation the square root of bugger all, and surely bank profits are better paid out in bonuses and taxed at 40% than retained as profit and taxed at 20%?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    Doing it without months of chaos would require the majority of Tory MPs to be united and organised in a way that's difficult to imagine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down.
    If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.

    Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:

    There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.

    And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.

    Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.


    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mkyov3djhi/TheTimes_VI_Budget_220926_W.pdf


    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for Scottish Labour in every respect.

    SNP 44%
    SLab 21%
    SCon 19%
    Grn 7%
    SLD 5%
    Ref 2%
    oth 1% (presumably Alba)

    Pro-independence 52%
    Unionist 47%

    A long way off @Casino_Royale ’s mooted

    SNP 35%
    SLab 30%
    So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
    MoE

    Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.

    SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,869
    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
  • Nigelb said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down.
    If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.

    Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
    Genuinely don't know. Was under the impression that a "Special Fiscal Operation" presented the morning before parliament shuts down was done explicitly to avoid scrutiny. Hoyle said something about paperwork to enable measures being circulated as the debate opened. So perhaps this is already law...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,869
    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
    Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY

    I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
  • FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:

    There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.

    And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.

    Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.


    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mkyov3djhi/TheTimes_VI_Budget_220926_W.pdf


    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for Scottish Labour in every respect.

    SNP 44%
    SLab 21%
    SCon 19%
    Grn 7%
    SLD 5%
    Ref 2%
    oth 1% (presumably Alba)

    Pro-independence 52%
    Unionist 47%

    A long way off @Casino_Royale ’s mooted

    SNP 35%
    SLab 30%
    So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
    That'll be all them Unionist SCons and SLDs going tactical on the SNP's ass..
    The trick for SLab is attracting SLD and SCon tactical votes without losing voters out the other side to the SNP and Greens.

    I confidently predict that that finesse is beyond them.
  • Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Brilliant turnout at the Scottish Labour stall this morning. #LabourConference2022

    https://twitter.com/indy_swim/status/1573993913328832513?s=46&t=pP9NwhjdafVGXy-g33LH6g

    Fantastic picture. Love the mountain of rubbish just behind the vacuous public façade. Metaphor heaven.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,621
    Would definitely lay Kwarteng to be first out at 30%. Why would Liz Truss sack her chancellor for delivering exactly the kind of mini-budget she wanted?

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    rkrkrk said:

    Would definitely lay Kwarteng to be first out at 30%. Why would Liz Truss sack her chancellor for delivering exactly the kind of mini-budget she wanted?

    Panic.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited September 27

    FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
    A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    And yet he was the choice of barely a third of them.

    Though in fairness, had the MPs been actually electing the leader rather than just selecting two candidates, the voting would have been very different - and nobody can say in what way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,869

    FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
    A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe - a way out of austerity.
    Nor judging by their birth rates, it wouldn't

    A tax on childlessness or celibacy makes more sense, right now
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    I thought 50% of them wanted Boris?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 636

    FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
    A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
    Tbh I'd imagine the top shaggers are all in northern europe. Long chilly nights etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,328
    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    And Southgate coach. The way that he has punctured the usual bravado and over confidence prior to the World Cup has been masterly. England will get credit for turning up on the right day at the right stadium now. Doubly so if they send Maguire somewhere else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,869
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    And Southgate coach. The way that he has punctured the usual bravado and over confidence prior to the World Cup has been masterly. England will get credit for turning up on the right day at the right stadium now. Doubly so if they send Maguire somewhere else.
    England are still third favourites to win

    https://m.skybet.com/football/world-cup-2022/event/22514761

    Completely ridiculous, of course. I seriously wonder if they will make the last 8
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 636
    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
    Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY

    I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
    Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:

    There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.

    And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.

    Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.


    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mkyov3djhi/TheTimes_VI_Budget_220926_W.pdf


    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for Scottish Labour in every respect.

    SNP 44%
    SLab 21%
    SCon 19%
    Grn 7%
    SLD 5%
    Ref 2%
    oth 1% (presumably Alba)

    Pro-independence 52%
    Unionist 47%

    A long way off @Casino_Royale ’s mooted

    SNP 35%
    SLab 30%
    So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
    MoE

    Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.

    SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
    Would still see SLAB gain Kirckcaldy and Cowdenbeath from the SNP on a 2% swing, more with tactical voting
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    Ghedebrav said:

    FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
    A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
    Tbh I'd imagine the top shaggers are all in northern europe. Long chilly nights etc.
    ✔️
  • FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
    A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
    A penny in the slot?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,869
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
    Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY

    I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
    Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
    Tyson Fury is a good call. I forgot about him

    Yes, he should win. But, again, he won't

    Not sure cricket is a niche sport - thanks to south Asia it is one of the most watched sports in the world: and still booming
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:

    There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.

    And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.

    Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.


    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mkyov3djhi/TheTimes_VI_Budget_220926_W.pdf


    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for Scottish Labour in every respect.

    SNP 44%
    SLab 21%
    SCon 19%
    Grn 7%
    SLD 5%
    Ref 2%
    oth 1% (presumably Alba)

    Pro-independence 52%
    Unionist 47%

    A long way off @Casino_Royale ’s mooted

    SNP 35%
    SLab 30%
    So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
    MoE

    Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.

    SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
    Would still see SLAB gain Kirckcaldy and Cowdenbeath from the SNP on a 2% swing, more with tactical voting
    I’m quaking in my boots.
    SLab to win 2 seats instead of 1.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 636

    This is nonsense, neither Truss or Kwarteng are going anywhere before the election

    Tend to agree with this. Outside chance of a reshuffle moving Kwarteng next summer, but I can't see it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,203

    FPT which is still going:

    The answer is simple.

    Tax wealth, not income.

    Tax land.
    I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
    Tax thingy.

    You know, *thingy!!!!*
    I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
    Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:

    1. Tax sex
    2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
    A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
    A penny in the slot?
    "Tax the rat farms"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286

    Nigelb said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down.
    If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.

    Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
    Genuinely don't know. Was under the impression that a "Special Fiscal Operation" presented the morning before parliament shuts down was done explicitly to avoid scrutiny. Hoyle said something about paperwork to enable measures being circulated as the debate opened. So perhaps this is already law...
    Anyone ?
    Seems as though this needs answering fairly urgently.

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 636
    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
    Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY

    I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
    Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
    Tyson Fury is a good call. I forgot about him

    Yes, he should win. But, again, he won't

    Not sure cricket is a niche sport - thanks to south Asia it is one of the most watched sports in the world: and still booming
    Yeah, I meant in this country.
  • HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.

    Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.

    Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).

    You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.

    I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.




  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited September 27
    So it would appear that perhaps there are two options for the Tories - quick removal of Truss and Kwarteng for much centrist candidates, to reassure the markets , like Hunt and Mordaunt. Downside - big risk of reputational damage and humiliation. - upside - a Hunt-led market-soothing and more generally consensual government on social issues might lose by less at the next election, particularly in the red wall.

    Option 2 - stick with what may be a pre-prepared Kwarteng/Truss plan to massively shrink the state and go for growth simultaneously, if the markets react badly to the all-out growth part. Very high stakes on both sides for this one - could completely destroy the Tories, or with a much smaller slither of likelihood, work at the cost of huge social disaster and suffering.
  • Lay the favourite.

    This is just media hysteria and people who disliked Truss before she was elected, still disliking her once she starts putting her policies into practice.

    What possible reason has Truss got to u-turn, considering she's just won a mandate from the membership to implement her ideas and has got a majority to do so?

    If the voters don't like the Tories, they can vote for Labour next time.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 636
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    And Southgate coach. The way that he has punctured the usual bravado and over confidence prior to the World Cup has been masterly. England will get credit for turning up on the right day at the right stadium now. Doubly so if they send Maguire somewhere else.
    England are still third favourites to win

    https://m.skybet.com/football/world-cup-2022/event/22514761

    Completely ridiculous, of course. I seriously wonder if they will make the last 8
    England could not really have hoped for a better draw. It'll be a shocker if they don't make the last 8. That ought to be the minimum - HOWEVER, they'd most likely then be facing (eventual winners) France in the quarters. Second place in the group could, oddly, be better; tougher last 16 match but then likely one of Argentina or Denmark in the QFs
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    I take serious issue with the "because" in this, as it's simply not established.
    But the basic point isn't going to go away without some explanation or debunking.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardGCorbett/status/1574441477463314432
    An international banker friend tells me:

    “The hedge funds made a ton of money because they met up with #KwasiKwarteng 3 days before the announcement and they shorted Sterling big time - isn’t that insider trading in a mega way? I am appalled”
  • FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.

    Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.

    Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).

    You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.

    I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.




    The solution to this is PR. Let the Tories and labout split, and the loonies can be idelogically pure, then the grown ups can actually form the government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited September 27

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    My original choice was Wallace not Sunak, I just preferred Sunak to Truss.

    You cannot have a leader who has just been rejected by the membership, the new leader would have to be accepted by members and MPs by coronation in the unlikely event Truss went before the next general election and only Wallace, like Howard in 2003, fits the bill. Wallace was not rejected by MPs as he did not stand in the leadership election.

    Wallace might then bring back Sunak as Chancellor if the circumstances were that dire
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
    It crosses one’s mind that the biggest problem for the Tory party is its 1922 committee. Spectacularly inept.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
    I dont think Wallace (like Johnson, or indeed Truss) has any interest in economics.

    Which is kind of whats needed now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Price on Kwarteng first out the cabinet is 3.5 (£24) / 8 (£25).

    So far no money has been matched on him at Smarkets.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
    Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY

    I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
    Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
    I'm not sure that's true, the viewing figures for the 2019 World Cup Final vs the 20202 Euros final were pretty similar. And that's with the cricket being buried on Channel 4.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,326


    Consumer confidence due to Ukraine lower than covid, financial crisis, dot com crash etc…
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,313

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.

    Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.

    Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).

    You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.

    I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.




    and thats even before you get them onto the subject of Europe......
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
    I dont think Wallace (like Johnson, or indeed Truss) has any interest in economics.

    Which is kind of whats needed now.
    The opposite case could be made: the Tories need a leader willing to trust the civil service.

    Amateur [fill in with any profession you like]s are occasionally geniuses, but usually duds.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    What are you talking about? The test cricket was amazing

    Stokes is the man
    Yep. And Qatar to come. Southgate has us peaking at just the right time methinks.
    What? 🥹
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
    I dont think Wallace (like Johnson, or indeed Truss) has any interest in economics.

    Which is kind of whats needed now.
    The opposite case could be made: the Tories need a leader willing to trust the civil service.

    Amateur [fill in with any profession you like]s are occasionally geniuses, but usually duds.
    Where is the evidence Wallace doesn't trust the civil service? He has worked with them well at defence
  • HYUFD said:

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
    Yes it is, and your point is?

    I would rather see the Tories lose with a libertarian time in office, than win with an authoritarian one.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
    Bart is Boris’s PB identity?
    Who’d’ve thunk it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
    Bart is Boris’s PB identity?
    Who’d’ve thunk it?
    Boris did not pursue this strategy Truss and Kwarteng are following
  • HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:

    There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.

    And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.

    Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.


    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/mkyov3djhi/TheTimes_VI_Budget_220926_W.pdf


    The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for Scottish Labour in every respect.

    SNP 44%
    SLab 21%
    SCon 19%
    Grn 7%
    SLD 5%
    Ref 2%
    oth 1% (presumably Alba)

    Pro-independence 52%
    Unionist 47%

    A long way off @Casino_Royale ’s mooted

    SNP 35%
    SLab 30%
    So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
    That'll be all them Unionist SCons and SLDs going tactical on the SNP's ass..
    The trick for SLab is attracting SLD and SCon tactical votes without losing voters out the other side to the SNP and Greens.

    I confidently predict that that finesse is beyond them.
    Did you see that wee diddy (in front of a yooj Union flag logo) at the Liverpool conference putting Meloni and her crew in the same bag as the SNP and Greens? It's like a sickness with them.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss and Kwarteng are now joined like Johnson and Sunak.

    Or Hindley and Brady.
    Or Pinky and the Brain.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,226

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
    Afraid not - the member vote is in the party constitution. The 1922 has full remit over the selection of candidates for the member vote, but the only way the MPs can avoid a member vote is to persuade one of the final two to withdraw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    HYUFD said:

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
    Yes it is, and your point is?

    I would rather see the Tories lose with a libertarian time in office, than win with an authoritarian one.
    Maybe but if this strategy sees the Tories face heave defeat at the next general election that will kill off libertarianism within the Tory party for a generation
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,245
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
    Bart is Boris’s PB identity?
    Who’d’ve thunk it?
    Boris did not pursue this strategy Truss and Kwarteng are following
    Boris murdered the economy. Liz is just dancing on the grave.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.

    Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.

    Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).

    You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.

    I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.




    and thats even before you get them onto the subject of Europe......
    Is there a foreseeable time at which Labour could suggest that the right approach to Brexit (as has been all along) is to join EFTA/EEA?

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
    Afraid not - the member vote is in the party constitution. The 1922 has full remit over the selection of candidates for the member vote, but the only way the MPs can avoid a member vote is to persuade one of the final two to withdraw.
    I vaguely recall Howard trying to change the rules in 2005 to remove the membership vote and this had to be… ratified by the membership. So it failed. I may be misremembering.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    And reinstate BoJo, the proven election winner?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.

    He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".

    Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
    It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
    Bart is Boris’s PB identity?
    Who’d’ve thunk it?
    Boris did not pursue this strategy Truss and Kwarteng are following
    Boris murdered the economy. Liz is just dancing on the grave.
    As @Scott_xP helpfully informed us, under Boris, the UK was seen as just about the safest country in the G7.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited September 27

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
    I mean, to further this, polling shows generally popular or neutral measures aside from bankers and 45p (forget the overseas vat, nobody is voting or judging overall based on that), yet its worse received than omnishambles etc and has caused an inverse bounce with 3 pollsters. Get rid of the poison.
    Yes we agreed yesterday, governments confidence crisis is because of the overall vibe from that one tax change - two actually, that one budget tax change and lack of further windfall tax on energy companies.

    You are right they can easily dispose of that one big unpopular measure and mitigate damage through a Tory back bench amendment. Hardly a bad defeat. It was all so unnecessary anyway.
  • A spectre of doom is descending over the Tories. The only possible way to mitigate the damage that I can think of is to oust Truss and install some venerable 'Safe Pair of Hands' leader. This will be on the understanding that he or she fights the next election to avoid complete meltdown and then quits. But who? DD might be a possibility.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Driver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
    The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
    Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?

    Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.

    Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
    The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
    Afraid not - the member vote is in the party constitution. The 1922 has full remit over the selection of candidates for the member vote, but the only way the MPs can avoid a member vote is to persuade one of the final two to withdraw.
    Easiest fix for any short term election is for the 1922 to quietly announce this is our preferred candidate - nominate yourself and chances are you won't be a Tory MP next week.

    Your choice...
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down.
    If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.

    Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
    Genuinely don't know. Was under the impression that a "Special Fiscal Operation" presented the morning before parliament shuts down was done explicitly to avoid scrutiny. Hoyle said something about paperwork to enable measures being circulated as the debate opened. So perhaps this is already law...
    Anyone ?
    Seems as though this needs answering fairly urgently.

    The only motion moved under the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968 was regarding the stamp duty land tax changes which applied from 23 September 2022.

    The NIC changes are in the Bill that was published on 22 September.

    Everything else will need to be in the forthcoming Finance Bill.

    The Government has got 30 days (during which the Commons sits) to publish the Finance Bill, otherwise the stamp duty changes get automatically reversed.

    I think that the last day the Finance Bill can be published is 24 November (given the current commons timetable).

    We have on the 23 November the announcement of the Medium Term Fiscal plan.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,121
    algarkirk said:

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.

    Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.

    Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).

    You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.

    I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.




    and thats even before you get them onto the subject of Europe......
    Is there a foreseeable time at which Labour could suggest that the right approach to Brexit (as has been all along) is to join EFTA/EEA?

    Possibly, but that moment is not now. Appearing too soft on Brexit will still cost them a few seats that they could do with winning to form a majority government.

    If Labour manages to form a long term and stable next government then it may have won the right to start having a sensible conversation about the benefits/drawbacks of various routes.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 1,527
    Fascinating thread on what is speculated the US has provided to Ukraine based on their orders for new equipment.

    TL;DR - lots!

    Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.

    Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
    1/n

    https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    Leon said:

    Driver said:

    FPT...

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    SPOTY date confirmed...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/63045408

    Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December

    They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
    Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...

    There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
    Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
    Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.

    There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.

    I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
    Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.

    That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
    The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen

    England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
    Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
    Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY

    I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
    Stokes would be a great pick. He has a great story to tell about taking time out of the game to deal with mental health issues. His leadership has been incredible. He set a new record for the greatest number of sixes in a County cricket innings. Test batting average this summer over 40, and bowling average under 26.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    .

    Driver said:

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.

    You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.

    Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
    It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.

    But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.

    Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.

    Or, don't. And they end.
    He was the choice of barely a third of them.
    The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.

    Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.

    Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).

    You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.

    I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.

    The solution to this is PR. Let the Tories and labout split, and the loonies can be idelogically pure, then the grown ups can actually form the government.
    Starmer's reaction to the party vote in favour of PR is disappointing and disingenuous.
    Calling it "not a priority" is effectively the same as saying he opposes it, without being honest about it.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,326
    Cicero said:


    Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go down to Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.

    PR then kills them.

    If it is 45-26, of course. Opinium’s head of polling this morning:

    “I keep hammering this point, but the large poll lead is mostly built off Tory 2019 voters switching to don't know. Labour still needs to convert more of them if they want to get a majority at the next election. It's not as bad for the Tories as the headline number suggests.“

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1574687760690032642?s=46&t=M1k-k7wj5Wd0rfqoatgKjQ
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    edited September 27
    Cicero said:

    Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.

    There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.

    Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.

    The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.

    If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.

    Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.

    PR then kills them.

    You may be right about the split in the Tory party, but you're making an assumption that it won't be the Trussites who look vindicated in 12-months time. A lot can change domestically and internationally between now and then.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited September 27

    There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.

    And reinstate BoJo, the proven election winner?
    If they get rid of her, I think that would also be a way of conceding that they can't win the next election, and are in the business of damage limitation of their brand, accepting their errors, and also offsetting the level of losses at the next election. Ergo surely that would mean a stabilising, relatively calming figure like Hunt, rather than Boris.

    The other option would surely be the all-or-bust option - stick with Truss and Kwarteng and what may well be their plan to acceleratedly and radically slash away if negative sentiment increases, or continues, in proportion to that sentiment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Cicero said:

    Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.

    There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.

    Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.

    The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.

    If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.

    Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.

    PR then kills them.

    It was the populist right Reform Party that killed the Canadian Tories in 1993 and turned a heavy defeat into annihilation.

    However PR would not just kill the current Tories but Labour too. A Nationalist Farage style Party would take votes and seats from the Tories with PR and Corbynites would leave Labour and start a new hard Left Party which would also win seats under PR
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Cicero said:

    Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.

    There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.

    Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.

    The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.

    If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.

    Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.

    PR then kills them.

    If only. Alternatively the current panic subsides, external economic forces stabilise, the government claims some wholly undeserved benefit of their policies, they bribe the electorate and with the help of Daily Mail Dark arts they eek out a win and we have another five years of the useless bastards. After which your scenario comes into play.

    Two years is a long time. Much can change.
This discussion has been closed.