There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be pretty extraordinary for Liz Truss to sack the Chancellor for implementing two of the main promises she made in her leadership campaign, especially since she probably believes that the policies are wonderful and that it's everyone else who is out of step.
I think pundits and the betting markets are over-estimating the chances of either of them going. I'm afraid we're stuck with them.
Meanwhile John McDonnell is giving the government some sound advice on fiscal responsibility and how to reassure the financial markets.
You know what, I don't think this is going to work out well for the Conservative Party, or the nation as a whole for that matter.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
Depends how bad things get over the next few weeks. It's very possible things could go so badly that getting rid is the better option..
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
I mean, to further this, polling shows generally popular or neutral measures aside from bankers and 45p (forget the overseas vat, nobody is voting or judging overall based on that), yet its worse received than omnishambles etc and has caused an inverse bounce with 3 pollsters. Get rid of the poison.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
Depends how bad things get over the next few weeks. It's very possible things could go so badly that getting rid is the better option..
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
I mean, to further this, polling shows generally popular or neutral measures aside from bankers and 45p (forget the overseas vat, nobody is voting or judging overall based on that), yet its worse received than omnishambles etc and has caused an inverse bounce with 3 pollsters. Get rid of the poison.
Which just goes to show the irrationality of the public. The 45% tax rate raises to a reasonable approximation the square root of bugger all, and surely bank profits are better paid out in bonuses and taxed at 40% than retained as profit and taxed at 20%?
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
Doing it without months of chaos would require the majority of Tory MPs to be united and organised in a way that's difficult to imagine.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down. If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.
Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
MoE
Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.
SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down. If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.
Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
Genuinely don't know. Was under the impression that a "Special Fiscal Operation" presented the morning before parliament shuts down was done explicitly to avoid scrutiny. Hoyle said something about paperwork to enable measures being circulated as the debate opened. So perhaps this is already law...
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
Would definitely lay Kwarteng to be first out at 30%. Why would Liz Truss sack her chancellor for delivering exactly the kind of mini-budget she wanted?
Would definitely lay Kwarteng to be first out at 30%. Why would Liz Truss sack her chancellor for delivering exactly the kind of mini-budget she wanted?
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
1. Tax sex 2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
And yet he was the choice of barely a third of them.
Though in fairness, had the MPs been actually electing the leader rather than just selecting two candidates, the voting would have been very different - and nobody can say in what way.
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
1. Tax sex 2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe - a way out of austerity.
Nor judging by their birth rates, it wouldn't
A tax on childlessness or celibacy makes more sense, right now
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
1. Tax sex 2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
Tbh I'd imagine the top shaggers are all in northern europe. Long chilly nights etc.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
And Southgate coach. The way that he has punctured the usual bravado and over confidence prior to the World Cup has been masterly. England will get credit for turning up on the right day at the right stadium now. Doubly so if they send Maguire somewhere else.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
And Southgate coach. The way that he has punctured the usual bravado and over confidence prior to the World Cup has been masterly. England will get credit for turning up on the right day at the right stadium now. Doubly so if they send Maguire somewhere else.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
MoE
Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.
SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
Would still see SLAB gain Kirckcaldy and Cowdenbeath from the SNP on a 2% swing, more with tactical voting
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
1. Tax sex 2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
Tbh I'd imagine the top shaggers are all in northern europe. Long chilly nights etc.
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
1. Tax sex 2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
Tyson Fury is a good call. I forgot about him
Yes, he should win. But, again, he won't
Not sure cricket is a niche sport - thanks to south Asia it is one of the most watched sports in the world: and still booming
The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
MoE
Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.
SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
Would still see SLAB gain Kirckcaldy and Cowdenbeath from the SNP on a 2% swing, more with tactical voting
I’m quaking in my boots. SLab to win 2 seats instead of 1.
I'd be in favour of taxing stupidity. That way you would find for the first time in your life you are in the highest tax band.
Tax thingy.
You know, *thingy!!!!*
I am not sure what you are referring to, but if you are referring to Baldrick's turnip-that-is-shaped-like-a-thingy then I am all in favour of taxing it
Tax thingy = tax sex. A Monty Python sketch. Not sure which of their tax solutions I prefer:
1. Tax sex 2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
A sex tax would raise a lot more in Southern Europe, also including France - a way out of austerity.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down. If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.
Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
Genuinely don't know. Was under the impression that a "Special Fiscal Operation" presented the morning before parliament shuts down was done explicitly to avoid scrutiny. Hoyle said something about paperwork to enable measures being circulated as the debate opened. So perhaps this is already law...
Anyone ? Seems as though this needs answering fairly urgently.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
Tyson Fury is a good call. I forgot about him
Yes, he should win. But, again, he won't
Not sure cricket is a niche sport - thanks to south Asia it is one of the most watched sports in the world: and still booming
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
So it would appear that perhaps there are two options for the Tories - quick removal of Truss and Kwarteng for much centrist candidates, to reassure the markets , like Hunt and Mordaunt. Downside - big risk of reputational damage and humiliation. - upside - a Hunt-led market-soothing and more generally consensual government on social issues might lose by less at the next election, particularly in the red wall.
Option 2 - stick with what may be a pre-prepared Kwarteng/Truss plan to massively shrink the state and go for growth simultaneously, if the markets react badly to the all-out growth part. Very high stakes on both sides for this one - could completely destroy the Tories, or with a much smaller slither of likelihood, work at the cost of huge social disaster and suffering.
This is just media hysteria and people who disliked Truss before she was elected, still disliking her once she starts putting her policies into practice.
What possible reason has Truss got to u-turn, considering she's just won a mandate from the membership to implement her ideas and has got a majority to do so?
If the voters don't like the Tories, they can vote for Labour next time.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
And Southgate coach. The way that he has punctured the usual bravado and over confidence prior to the World Cup has been masterly. England will get credit for turning up on the right day at the right stadium now. Doubly so if they send Maguire somewhere else.
Completely ridiculous, of course. I seriously wonder if they will make the last 8
England could not really have hoped for a better draw. It'll be a shocker if they don't make the last 8. That ought to be the minimum - HOWEVER, they'd most likely then be facing (eventual winners) France in the quarters. Second place in the group could, oddly, be better; tougher last 16 match but then likely one of Argentina or Denmark in the QFs
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
I take serious issue with the "because" in this, as it's simply not established. But the basic point isn't going to go away without some explanation or debunking.
“The hedge funds made a ton of money because they met up with #KwasiKwarteng 3 days before the announcement and they shorted Sterling big time - isn’t that insider trading in a mega way? I am appalled”
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
The solution to this is PR. Let the Tories and labout split, and the loonies can be idelogically pure, then the grown ups can actually form the government.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
My original choice was Wallace not Sunak, I just preferred Sunak to Truss.
You cannot have a leader who has just been rejected by the membership, the new leader would have to be accepted by members and MPs by coronation in the unlikely event Truss went before the next general election and only Wallace, like Howard in 2003, fits the bill. Wallace was not rejected by MPs as he did not stand in the leadership election.
Wallace might then bring back Sunak as Chancellor if the circumstances were that dire
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
It crosses one’s mind that the biggest problem for the Tory party is its 1922 committee. Spectacularly inept.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
I dont think Wallace (like Johnson, or indeed Truss) has any interest in economics.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
Cricket is more of a niche sport than women's football now. FWIW, in terms of individual sporting achievement I'd give it to Ronnie O'Sullivan or Tyson Fury.
I'm not sure that's true, the viewing figures for the 2019 World Cup Final vs the 20202 Euros final were pretty similar. And that's with the cricket being buried on Channel 4.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
and thats even before you get them onto the subject of Europe......
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
I dont think Wallace (like Johnson, or indeed Truss) has any interest in economics.
Which is kind of whats needed now.
The opposite case could be made: the Tories need a leader willing to trust the civil service.
Amateur [fill in with any profession you like]s are occasionally geniuses, but usually duds.
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
Only Wallace could get the coronation. Sunak is not crownable by the MPs as seen by his disappointing first and final round numbers.
I dont think Wallace (like Johnson, or indeed Truss) has any interest in economics.
Which is kind of whats needed now.
The opposite case could be made: the Tories need a leader willing to trust the civil service.
Amateur [fill in with any profession you like]s are occasionally geniuses, but usually duds.
Where is the evidence Wallace doesn't trust the civil service? He has worked with them well at defence
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
Yes it is, and your point is?
I would rather see the Tories lose with a libertarian time in office, than win with an authoritarian one.
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
Bart is Boris’s PB identity? Who’d’ve thunk it?
Boris did not pursue this strategy Truss and Kwarteng are following
The YouGov details are all fairly predictable and of course dire for the Tories in every respect. Two things to note:
There is as much as usual self interest in the views about tax - supporting all the stuff that advantages the majority, and opposing everything that gives to someone else.
And the figure for those who "Cannot afford my costs and often have to go without essentials....." is, at 5% lower than I would have thought.
Maybe that's why I am told, counter intuitively, that our local foodbank is remarkably quiet at the moment.
So SNP down from the 45% they got in 2019, SLAB up from 18%
That'll be all them Unionist SCons and SLDs going tactical on the SNP's ass..
The trick for SLab is attracting SLD and SCon tactical votes without losing voters out the other side to the SNP and Greens.
I confidently predict that that finesse is beyond them.
Did you see that wee diddy (in front of a yooj Union flag logo) at the Liverpool conference putting Meloni and her crew in the same bag as the SNP and Greens? It's like a sickness with them.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
Afraid not - the member vote is in the party constitution. The 1922 has full remit over the selection of candidates for the member vote, but the only way the MPs can avoid a member vote is to persuade one of the final two to withdraw.
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
Yes it is, and your point is?
I would rather see the Tories lose with a libertarian time in office, than win with an authoritarian one.
Maybe but if this strategy sees the Tories face heave defeat at the next general election that will kill off libertarianism within the Tory party for a generation
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
Bart is Boris’s PB identity? Who’d’ve thunk it?
Boris did not pursue this strategy Truss and Kwarteng are following
Boris murdered the economy. Liz is just dancing on the grave.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
and thats even before you get them onto the subject of Europe......
Is there a foreseeable time at which Labour could suggest that the right approach to Brexit (as has been all along) is to join EFTA/EEA?
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
Afraid not - the member vote is in the party constitution. The 1922 has full remit over the selection of candidates for the member vote, but the only way the MPs can avoid a member vote is to persuade one of the final two to withdraw.
I vaguely recall Howard trying to change the rules in 2005 to remove the membership vote and this had to be… ratified by the membership. So it failed. I may be misremembering.
FUDHY is a very odd Tory. He has paeans of praise for General Franco, the Sweden Democrats, Meloni, Farage and Scottish Labour, but none for his own leader.
He's an authoritarian, bordering on what gets called "far right".
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
It is you who are the hardline libertarian who has backed a strategy which has taken the Tories to 28% in the polls, not me
Bart is Boris’s PB identity? Who’d’ve thunk it?
Boris did not pursue this strategy Truss and Kwarteng are following
Boris murdered the economy. Liz is just dancing on the grave.
As @Scott_xP helpfully informed us, under Boris, the UK was seen as just about the safest country in the G7.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
Im guessing the mini budget isnt a proper finance bill, so the backbench Tories should just amend out the 45p measure to set some expectations with the top team. They'll probably be relieved to be divested of it having seen the polling.
I mean, to further this, polling shows generally popular or neutral measures aside from bankers and 45p (forget the overseas vat, nobody is voting or judging overall based on that), yet its worse received than omnishambles etc and has caused an inverse bounce with 3 pollsters. Get rid of the poison.
Yes we agreed yesterday, governments confidence crisis is because of the overall vibe from that one tax change - two actually, that one budget tax change and lack of further windfall tax on energy companies.
You are right they can easily dispose of that one big unpopular measure and mitigate damage through a Tory back bench amendment. Hardly a bad defeat. It was all so unnecessary anyway.
Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.
There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.
Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.
The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.
If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
A spectre of doom is descending over the Tories. The only possible way to mitigate the damage that I can think of is to oust Truss and install some venerable 'Safe Pair of Hands' leader. This will be on the understanding that he or she fights the next election to avoid complete meltdown and then quits. But who? DD might be a possibility.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
He won every round of voting. Comfortably. Compared to Truss it would be very easy to make a case for Sunak being the leader the MPs wanted.
The only feasible alternative to Truss before the general election is Wallace by coronation, who MPs and members could support. Though Truss likely holds on
Genuinely interested in your take on this. You were openly a Sunak supporter. And why that was. Sunak - and you - were right. So why do you say Wallace?
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
The 1922 could change the rules to make it an MP vote over a week.
Afraid not - the member vote is in the party constitution. The 1922 has full remit over the selection of candidates for the member vote, but the only way the MPs can avoid a member vote is to persuade one of the final two to withdraw.
Easiest fix for any short term election is for the 1922 to quietly announce this is our preferred candidate - nominate yourself and chances are you won't be a Tory MP next week.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
I don't think they can wait that long and then vote it down. If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.
Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
Genuinely don't know. Was under the impression that a "Special Fiscal Operation" presented the morning before parliament shuts down was done explicitly to avoid scrutiny. Hoyle said something about paperwork to enable measures being circulated as the debate opened. So perhaps this is already law...
Anyone ? Seems as though this needs answering fairly urgently.
The only motion moved under the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968 was regarding the stamp duty land tax changes which applied from 23 September 2022.
The NIC changes are in the Bill that was published on 22 September.
Everything else will need to be in the forthcoming Finance Bill.
The Government has got 30 days (during which the Commons sits) to publish the Finance Bill, otherwise the stamp duty changes get automatically reversed.
I think that the last day the Finance Bill can be published is 24 November (given the current commons timetable).
We have on the 23 November the announcement of the Medium Term Fiscal plan.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
and thats even before you get them onto the subject of Europe......
Is there a foreseeable time at which Labour could suggest that the right approach to Brexit (as has been all along) is to join EFTA/EEA?
Possibly, but that moment is not now. Appearing too soft on Brexit will still cost them a few seats that they could do with winning to form a majority government.
If Labour manages to form a long term and stable next government then it may have won the right to start having a sensible conversation about the benefits/drawbacks of various routes.
Fascinating thread on what is speculated the US has provided to Ukraine based on their orders for new equipment.
TL;DR - lots!
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.
Sports Personality of the Year to take place on [Wednesday] 21 December
They might as well not bother; we seem a bit rubbish at sport this year. Win some, lose the ones that matter.
Bit disrespectful to the ladies World Cup winners ...
There's certainly no man I can think of that deserves to win it.
Euros, but yes, they're a shoo-in for Team of the Year - there wasn't really a stand-out individual who grabbed the headlines above her team-mates though.
Really? Beth Mead won the Golden Boot.
There are other SPOTY candidates about. Joe Fraser with triple gymnastics golds at the European Championships and Commonwealth Games. Couple of golds for Laura Muir. Jonny Bairstow hammering (and I mean hammering) 1000 Test runs to play a big part in turning England around. Ronnie O'Sullivan on vintage form more than 20 years after first World Championship win. And there was a certain romance in Non Stanford winning her last major triathlon.
I'm not saying it's one of those years where a dozen people could easily deserve it, but there are plenty of good sporting stories.
Yeah, she did, but she didn't grab the headlines in doing so - it was all just about the team.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
The four tests England won in a row this summer - NZ x 3, and then India, constituted some of the best cricket I have ever seen
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
Perhaps they should, but they won't. Remember, it's the BBC who decide, and they spent all summer plugging the idea that this was just as significant as men's football - they're not going to stop now.
Then Stokes it is, for SPOTY
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
Stokes would be a great pick. He has a great story to tell about taking time out of the game to deal with mental health issues. His leadership has been incredible. He set a new record for the greatest number of sixes in a County cricket innings. Test batting average this summer over 40, and bowling average under 26.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
The party would be utterly screwed by changing the top team 3 weeks after the last change. I mean, seriously ratnered. Holed below the waterline. Possibly terminally damaged.
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
It would be cross the streams bad. I know that.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
He was the choice of barely a third of them.
The problem is the Tory Party has absolutely zero clue what it actually wants to be anymore. This does happen to all parties in power for too long, to some extent, but this is particularly bad.
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
The solution to this is PR. Let the Tories and labout split, and the loonies can be idelogically pure, then the grown ups can actually form the government.
Starmer's reaction to the party vote in favour of PR is disappointing and disingenuous. Calling it "not a priority" is effectively the same as saying he opposes it, without being honest about it.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go down to Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
PR then kills them.
If it is 45-26, of course. Opinium’s head of polling this morning:
“I keep hammering this point, but the large poll lead is mostly built off Tory 2019 voters switching to don't know. Labour still needs to convert more of them if they want to get a majority at the next election. It's not as bad for the Tories as the headline number suggests.“
Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.
There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.
Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.
The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.
If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
PR then kills them.
You may be right about the split in the Tory party, but you're making an assumption that it won't be the Trussites who look vindicated in 12-months time. A lot can change domestically and internationally between now and then.
There is still a chance for Tory MPs to save us and their party from this calamity.
And reinstate BoJo, the proven election winner?
If they get rid of her, I think that would also be a way of conceding that they can't win the next election, and are in the business of damage limitation of their brand, accepting their errors, and also offsetting the level of losses at the next election. Ergo surely that would mean a stabilising, relatively calming figure like Hunt, rather than Boris.
The other option would surely be the all-or-bust option - stick with Truss and Kwarteng and what may well be their plan to acceleratedly and radically slash away if negative sentiment increases, or continues, in proportion to that sentiment.
Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.
There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.
Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.
The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.
If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
PR then kills them.
It was the populist right Reform Party that killed the Canadian Tories in 1993 and turned a heavy defeat into annihilation.
However PR would not just kill the current Tories but Labour too. A Nationalist Farage style Party would take votes and seats from the Tories with PR and Corbynites would leave Labour and start a new hard Left Party which would also win seats under PR
Can´t help feeling that we could be looking at the end of the modern Conservative party.
There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.
Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.
The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.
If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
PR then kills them.
If only. Alternatively the current panic subsides, external economic forces stabilise, the government claims some wholly undeserved benefit of their policies, they bribe the electorate and with the help of Daily Mail Dark arts they eek out a win and we have another five years of the useless bastards. After which your scenario comes into play.
Comments
You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
What's she going to say? He didn't tell her what he was going to announce? She didn't realise there was anything wrong with it?
I think pundits and the betting markets are over-estimating the chances of either of them going. I'm afraid we're stuck with them.
Meanwhile John McDonnell is giving the government some sound advice on fiscal responsibility and how to reassure the financial markets.
You know what, I don't think this is going to work out well for the Conservative Party, or the nation as a whole for that matter.
https://twitter.com/votevets/status/1574466498332356609
https://twitter.com/petetidbits/status/1573971037255045120
If Biden doesn't run again, the Democrats really ought to nominate him.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.
Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.
SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
1. Tax sex
2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
I confidently predict that that finesse is beyond them.
https://twitter.com/indy_swim/status/1573993913328832513?s=46&t=pP9NwhjdafVGXy-g33LH6g
Fantastic picture. Love the mountain of rubbish just behind the vacuous public façade. Metaphor heaven.
Though in fairness, had the MPs been actually electing the leader rather than just selecting two candidates, the voting would have been very different - and nobody can say in what way.
A tax on childlessness or celibacy makes more sense, right now
https://m.skybet.com/football/world-cup-2022/event/22514761
Completely ridiculous, of course. I seriously wonder if they will make the last 8
Yes, he should win. But, again, he won't
Not sure cricket is a niche sport - thanks to south Asia it is one of the most watched sports in the world: and still booming
SLab to win 2 seats instead of 1.
Seems as though this needs answering fairly urgently.
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
Option 2 - stick with what may be a pre-prepared Kwarteng/Truss plan to massively shrink the state and go for growth simultaneously, if the markets react badly to the all-out growth part. Very high stakes on both sides for this one - could completely destroy the Tories, or with a much smaller slither of likelihood, work at the cost of huge social disaster and suffering.
This is just media hysteria and people who disliked Truss before she was elected, still disliking her once she starts putting her policies into practice.
What possible reason has Truss got to u-turn, considering she's just won a mandate from the membership to implement her ideas and has got a majority to do so?
If the voters don't like the Tories, they can vote for Labour next time.
But the basic point isn't going to go away without some explanation or debunking.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardGCorbett/status/1574441477463314432
An international banker friend tells me:
“The hedge funds made a ton of money because they met up with #KwasiKwarteng 3 days before the announcement and they shorted Sterling big time - isn’t that insider trading in a mega way? I am appalled”
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
You cannot have a leader who has just been rejected by the membership, the new leader would have to be accepted by members and MPs by coronation in the unlikely event Truss went before the next general election and only Wallace, like Howard in 2003, fits the bill. Wallace was not rejected by MPs as he did not stand in the leadership election.
Wallace might then bring back Sunak as Chancellor if the circumstances were that dire
Which is kind of whats needed now.
So far no money has been matched on him at Smarkets.
Consumer confidence due to Ukraine lower than covid, financial crisis, dot com crash etc…
Amateur [fill in with any profession you like]s are occasionally geniuses, but usually duds.
I would rather see the Tories lose with a libertarian time in office, than win with an authoritarian one.
Who’d’ve thunk it?
You are right they can easily dispose of that one big unpopular measure and mitigate damage through a Tory back bench amendment. Hardly a bad defeat. It was all so unnecessary anyway.
There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.
Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.
The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.
If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
PR then kills them.
Your choice...
The NIC changes are in the Bill that was published on 22 September.
Everything else will need to be in the forthcoming Finance Bill.
The Government has got 30 days (during which the Commons sits) to publish the Finance Bill, otherwise the stamp duty changes get automatically reversed.
I think that the last day the Finance Bill can be published is 24 November (given the current commons timetable).
We have on the 23 November the announcement of the Medium Term Fiscal plan.
If Labour manages to form a long term and stable next government then it may have won the right to start having a sensible conversation about the benefits/drawbacks of various routes.
TL;DR - lots!
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.
Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
1/n
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387
Calling it "not a priority" is effectively the same as saying he opposes it, without being honest about it.
“I keep hammering this point, but the large poll lead is mostly built off Tory 2019 voters switching to don't know. Labour still needs to convert more of them if they want to get a majority at the next election. It's not as bad for the Tories as the headline number suggests.“
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1574687760690032642?s=46&t=M1k-k7wj5Wd0rfqoatgKjQ
The other option would surely be the all-or-bust option - stick with Truss and Kwarteng and what may well be their plan to acceleratedly and radically slash away if negative sentiment increases, or continues, in proportion to that sentiment.
However PR would not just kill the current Tories but Labour too. A Nationalist Farage style Party would take votes and seats from the Tories with PR and Corbynites would leave Labour and start a new hard Left Party which would also win seats under PR
Two years is a long time. Much can change.