Kwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit – politicalbetting.com
Kwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit – politicalbetting.com
It was just 3 weeks ago today that Truss learned that she had become Tory leader and the successor to Johnson.
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You can’t pretend to be a serious party of government by deposing your leadership 3 weeks after they take the helm.
Might be better for the country mind, but for the Tories, terrible move.
What's she going to say? He didn't tell her what he was going to announce? She didn't realise there was anything wrong with it?
I think pundits and the betting markets are over-estimating the chances of either of them going. I'm afraid we're stuck with them.
Meanwhile John McDonnell is giving the government some sound advice on fiscal responsibility and how to reassure the financial markets.
You know what, I don't think this is going to work out well for the Conservative Party, or the nation as a whole for that matter.
https://twitter.com/votevets/status/1574466498332356609
https://twitter.com/petetidbits/status/1573971037255045120
If Biden doesn't run again, the Democrats really ought to nominate him.
That said, the presentation of the show on the night is critical - and you know that the women's football team will get a disproportionate share of the show.
But the alternative is worse. Anyway, my scenario is that after an excretable party conference and a harsh reaction from the markets, MPs say "fuck this shit" and bring down la Truss by voting down her Financial Suicide bill. And anoint Sunak. Who was their choice. Who was right about the economy. Who would prompt a big markets u-turn.
Truss would be spun as a terrible mistake imposed by the membership who were wrong. Change the rules to remove the stupid and they have a defensible line.
Or, don't. And they end.
If the price cap for business doesn't go through, then a very large number of of businesses, care hime and schools are going to be in deep trouble very quickly.
Can that still go ahead independently from the bill ?
Yesterday, Mike and the whole of PB were excited by a 17 point Labour lead, yet I’m supposed to be worried by a 23 point SNP lead? Err… no.
SLab need a 12 point swing from the SNP to make any decent gains. A 2 point swing in a sub-sample of a poll where they are miles ahead in England is profoundly unimpressive.
England's Test Team should get Team of the Year
I seriously cannot think of a better candidate (tho he won't win)
1. Tax sex
2. Tax all foreigners living abroad
I confidently predict that that finesse is beyond them.
https://twitter.com/indy_swim/status/1573993913328832513?s=46&t=pP9NwhjdafVGXy-g33LH6g
Fantastic picture. Love the mountain of rubbish just behind the vacuous public façade. Metaphor heaven.
Though in fairness, had the MPs been actually electing the leader rather than just selecting two candidates, the voting would have been very different - and nobody can say in what way.
A tax on childlessness or celibacy makes more sense, right now
https://m.skybet.com/football/world-cup-2022/event/22514761
Completely ridiculous, of course. I seriously wonder if they will make the last 8
Yes, he should win. But, again, he won't
Not sure cricket is a niche sport - thanks to south Asia it is one of the most watched sports in the world: and still booming
SLab to win 2 seats instead of 1.
Seems as though this needs answering fairly urgently.
Its an economic crisis on a massive scale. You need a new leader to calm the markets and bring stability to the political table. You can have your former chancellor who called this right and was the choice of MPs. Or the Defence Secretary who isn't seen as up on finance and wasn't the choice of MPs.
Why are you suggesting Wallace instead of Sunak? It would need to be a coronation though, wouldn't it?
Truss and Kwarteng are low tax, low spend, free market-eers who dont believe in sound money.
Sunak is a tax and spender with roots in the Johnsonian “levelling up” “spend it on our NHS instead” boosterism (on which let’s not forget the Conservative Party was elected in 2019 - NOT the policies Truss and Kwarteng are now following).
You’ve then got a dwindling band of Cameroony moderates like Hunt, a scattering of sound money Thatcherites, and a group that probably don’t care what the economic policy of the country is so long as they can attack the other parties on what the definition of a woman is.
I know all political parties are broad churches but the Tory Party is basically schizophrenic now.
Option 2 - stick with what may be a pre-prepared Kwarteng/Truss plan to massively shrink the state and go for growth simultaneously, if the markets react badly to the all-out growth part. Very high stakes on both sides for this one - could completely destroy the Tories, or with a much smaller slither of likelihood, work at the cost of huge social disaster and suffering.
This is just media hysteria and people who disliked Truss before she was elected, still disliking her once she starts putting her policies into practice.
What possible reason has Truss got to u-turn, considering she's just won a mandate from the membership to implement her ideas and has got a majority to do so?
If the voters don't like the Tories, they can vote for Labour next time.
But the basic point isn't going to go away without some explanation or debunking.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardGCorbett/status/1574441477463314432
An international banker friend tells me:
“The hedge funds made a ton of money because they met up with #KwasiKwarteng 3 days before the announcement and they shorted Sterling big time - isn’t that insider trading in a mega way? I am appalled”
Truss is a dry as dust, socially liberal Conservative. Some people here used to say the believed in that, but not him.
You cannot have a leader who has just been rejected by the membership, the new leader would have to be accepted by members and MPs by coronation in the unlikely event Truss went before the next general election and only Wallace, like Howard in 2003, fits the bill. Wallace was not rejected by MPs as he did not stand in the leadership election.
Wallace might then bring back Sunak as Chancellor if the circumstances were that dire
Which is kind of whats needed now.
So far no money has been matched on him at Smarkets.
Consumer confidence due to Ukraine lower than covid, financial crisis, dot com crash etc…
Amateur [fill in with any profession you like]s are occasionally geniuses, but usually duds.
I would rather see the Tories lose with a libertarian time in office, than win with an authoritarian one.
Who’d’ve thunk it?
There are certainly parallels with the Liberal Party, during and after the first world war, with Johnson as the Lloyd George figure undermining the traditional heart of his party.
Longer term splits over Europe (Liberal Parallel; Ireland and the Suffragettes) have seen even former leadership contenders like Rory Stewart, Heseltine and Ken Clarke driven out from the party. These public service minded figures have been replaced by the hard-faced chancers, like JRM, Johnson and indeed Truss herself.
The divisions between Sunak and KK are fundamental, not just Wykhamist v Etonian. The party is fundamentally at odds with itself.
If I was an economically literate Tory MP, even with something like a 9K majority, I would be thinking very hard about whether it might not be better for the Parliamentary party to throw out the Populists now, before the Country does it in 2 years with the collateral damage being that I would also lose my seat.
Truss turns out to be the Militant Tendency of the modern Tories, and if not challenged the Tories could indeed go into a Canadian style meltdown. A 45-26 % split next time with a bit of tactical voting for the Lib Dems could get the Tories down into double figures.
PR then kills them.
You are right they can easily dispose of that one big unpopular measure and mitigate damage through a Tory back bench amendment. Hardly a bad defeat. It was all so unnecessary anyway.
Your choice...
The NIC changes are in the Bill that was published on 22 September.
Everything else will need to be in the forthcoming Finance Bill.
The Government has got 30 days (during which the Commons sits) to publish the Finance Bill, otherwise the stamp duty changes get automatically reversed.
I think that the last day the Finance Bill can be published is 24 November (given the current commons timetable).
We have on the 23 November the announcement of the Medium Term Fiscal plan.
If Labour manages to form a long term and stable next government then it may have won the right to start having a sensible conversation about the benefits/drawbacks of various routes.
TL;DR - lots!
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.
Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
1/n
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1574606905363898387
Calling it "not a priority" is effectively the same as saying he opposes it, without being honest about it.
“I keep hammering this point, but the large poll lead is mostly built off Tory 2019 voters switching to don't know. Labour still needs to convert more of them if they want to get a majority at the next election. It's not as bad for the Tories as the headline number suggests.“
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1574687760690032642?s=46&t=M1k-k7wj5Wd0rfqoatgKjQ
The other option would surely be the all-or-bust option - stick with Truss and Kwarteng and what may well be their plan to acceleratedly and radically slash away if negative sentiment increases, or continues, in proportion to that sentiment.
However PR would not just kill the current Tories but Labour too. A Nationalist Farage style Party would take votes and seats from the Tories with PR and Corbynites would leave Labour and start a new hard Left Party which would also win seats under PR
Two years is a long time. Much can change.