politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretar

If I were a defector I'd wait for the Clacton outcome.

I used every ounce of my self restraint, not to headline this piece

"Two more traitorous pigs dogs rumoured to be about to defect to UKIP"

I think UKIP are being stupid here. If MPs are going to defect then announce it when they actually do so as they did with Carswell. Otherwise you leave yourself wide open to a bit of clever deception and have to backtrack when they 'change their minds'.

UKIP handled the Carswell defection well (with the exception of not getting the existing PCC on board) but they seem to have rather got carried away with themselves here and it strikes me they are heading for a fall if they are not very careful.

taffys said:

f I were a defector I'd wait for the Clacton outcome.

Really? its a foregone conclusion, isn't it?

Not on my betting but I think I'm irrational when it comes to turncoat traitorous pig dogs.

Cameron's defective Tories?

Richard_Tyndall said:

I think UKIP are being stupid here. If MPs are going to defect then announce it when they actually do so as they did with Carswell. Otherwise you leave yourself wide open to a bit of clever deception and have to backtrack when they 'change their minds'.

UKIP handled the Carswell defection well (with the exception of not getting the existing PCC on board) but they seem to have rather got carried away with themselves here and it strikes me they are heading for a fall if they are not very careful.

I think it's going to happen for that reason: otherwise it sounds a bit like a grand old Duke of York moment; building expectations only to have them bashed.

As TSE mentions, if there are defectors, I hope they follow Carswell's honourable actions and call a by-election. Although I hope they have the guts to call Cameron and/or the chief whip first.

As for timing: might it be that UKIP want the publicity from by-elections coming up the GE, and therefore want them *before* the election? If the MPs have currently safe seats, and can transfer many Conservative members over with them (as it appears Carswell has done), that would seem to be a risky but sane strategy to build momentum.

I wonder when a resignation would not trigger a by-election, but be automatically rolled up into the GE? How long could it be dragged out? What are the precedents?

A number of those listed have publicly declared they would not be defecting, including Peter Bone. Have they been lying? I would be more worried about those who have been below the radar, and Mike Smithson's speculation (immediately post Carswell) about Philip Hollobone in particular, may prove to be prescient. According to Wikipedia, Gordon Henderson, MP for Sittingbourne and Sheppey, has "stated that the non-Conservative politician he most admires is Nigel Farage".

But maybe nothing will happen. Not long to wait.

The markets been pulled by Ladbrokes anyway

@TheScreamingEagles - I've Vanillaed you

Richard_Nabavi said:

@TheScreamingEagles - I've Vanillaed you

Just replying.

I suspect that the powers that be in the Tory Party have by now accepted that the most likely GE outcome is a Labour or LAB/Lib government and that they might as well lose the clowns now, take it on the chin and rebuild under Boris.

It begs the question. If we are heading towards a continental style five party system, where is the new force on the harder left? Will it take a piss poor Miliband government or coalition to create a new force on the left? A sort of socialist UKIP?

If this happens just before the Tory conference doesn't this just make the MPs and UKIP just look seedy?

JohnO said:

A number of those listed have publicly declared they would not be defecting, including Peter Bone. Have they been lying? I would be more worried about those who have been below the radar, and Mike Smithson's speculation (immediately post Carswell) about Philip Hollobone in particular, may prove to be prescient. According to Wikipedia, Gordon Henderson, MP for Sittingbourne and Sheppey, has "stated that the non-Conservative politician he most admires is Nigel Farage".

But maybe nothing will happen. Not long to wait.

Bone gets more attention being in the Tory caucus as he at least has the ability to influence a larger bloc of anti-EU sentiment.

Surely Farage accusing Cameron of deliberately trying to sabotage his conference is an example of justifying pulling the same trick by announcing defectors during the Tory Conference?

Jonathan Djanogly is a possible.... He's a busted flush in the Tory Party and his local party hate him.

On topic. I could see Dorries going for it. Likes being in the spotlight and has well-known problems with Dave and Osborne.

MarkSenior said:

I am sure the usual suspects will be along to state how bad this news ( if true ) is for Labour and Ed M will never be PM .

It is impressive how no Lib Dems have jumped, particularly to Labour for those from the SDP part of the Yellow team. Not even a sniff of a defection.

That compares well for party discipline to the EU headbangers on the Tory side who have put that anti-EU obsession ahead of their country (from my perspective of making a Labour Govt more likely that is).

Put that in your pipe and smoke it Turncoat Carswell - viva Rev Oswald!!!!

If I could lay Peter Bone, I would. Not sure he's the type.

It won't be Rosindell, Redwood, Rees-Mogg or Cash either.

Not sure it'll be anyone.

Casino_Royale said:

If I could lay Peter Bone, I would. Not sure he's the type.

It won't be Rosindell, Redwood, Rees-Mogg or Cash either.

Not sure it'll be anyone.

It certainly won't be Cash after his comments when Carswell defected.

TheScreamingEagles said:

euan mccolm @euanmccolm · 47m

asked at a dinner with editors whether he'd rather push farage or salmond off beachy head, cameron said "salmond. business before pleasure."

Is Banksy a Yoonyoonist Turnip?

http://www.wandsworthguardian.co.uk/news/11482512.Has_Banksy_been_to_Battersea_/

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 45s

@TSEofPB My money's on Kettering MP Philip Holobone being next CON MP to join UKIP though @LadPolitics only allowed me to put £10 on at 10/1

Snap

Evening all

As I recall, Barry Porter died in November 1996 and the Wirral South By-election was held in late February 1997 so there's still time for by-elections in this Parliament.

IF nothing happens, it's a poor effort by UKIP and makes them look foolish. I struggle with the concept of a defection but if an MP resigns and wants to fight the by-election under a different banner, so be it.

Two defections dovetailing the UKIP and Conservative Conferences will make for an interesting few days.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

MarkSenior said:

I am sure the usual suspects will be along to state how bad this news ( if true ) is for Labour and Ed M will never be PM .

It is impressive how no Lib Dems have jumped, particularly to Labour for those from the SDP part of the Yellow team. Not even a sniff of a defection.

That compares well for party discipline to the EU headbangers on the Tory side who have put that anti-EU obsession ahead of their country (from my perspective of making a Labour Govt more likely that is).

Put that in your pipe and smoke it Turncoat Carswell - viva Rev Oswald!!!!

No they have put the good of the country ahead of narrow party interest.

I tend to think of Labour in power as the worst outcome - this week merely confirming my fears as an adviser, investor and indeed resident of the UK - I believe the Tories have many failings but compared to the economic stewardship of Labour and the ongoing 'tightrope' we remain on economically - individual non leftie back-benchers who throw their toys out ahead of May 2015 are putting their own pet-interests ahead of the broad country interest.

Simply it's whether they want Ed Balls as Chancellor & Ed M as PM or they don't - which camp is it Turncoat Carswell?

Part of the calculation is how likely the Tories are to win next election. If you think Labour are very likely to win the next election no matter whether or not you defect, why not going into that election fighting for a party you truly believe in?

stodge said:

Evening all

As I recall, Barry Porter died in November 1996 and the Wirral South By-election was held in late February 1997 so there's still time for by-elections in this Parliament.

IF nothing happens, it's a poor effort by UKIP and makes them look foolish. I struggle with the concept of a defection but if an MP resigns and wants to fight the by-election under a different banner, so be it.

Two defections dovetailing the UKIP and Conservative Conferences will make for an interesting few days.

For all this talk of it being a poor effort by ukip etc... they haven't announced anything

Someone has repeated a private conversation... Or is that "announcing" in journalese?

As much as I welcomed Carswell's defection I think I would be rather unhappy with Hollobone's. Whilst clearly I support his Euroscepticism, I certainly would not support his views on banning the burka or reintroducing the death penalty.

That said I do like the fact he is the least expensive MP in Parliament.

The number of WWC Labour voters who have moved to UKIP is almost zero .
There has been a movement of WWC voters to UKIP but they are not generally ones who have recently voted Labour , if they have voted at all in recent elections , they have voted BNP , Lib Dem or even Conservative .

Scott_P said:

@iancawsey: SNP's Jim Sillars says he won't pay for a TV licence as a protest against BBC news. At 76, thanks to a Labour Government he doesn't have to!

"Not paying" - the great Labour ideal!

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

MarkSenior said:

I am sure the usual suspects will be along to state how bad this news ( if true ) is for Labour and Ed M will never be PM .

It is impressive how no Lib Dems have jumped, particularly to Labour for those from the SDP part of the Yellow team. Not even a sniff of a defection.

That compares well for party discipline to the EU headbangers on the Tory side who have put that anti-EU obsession ahead of their country (from my perspective of making a Labour Govt more likely that is).

Put that in your pipe and smoke it Turncoat Carswell - viva Rev Oswald!!!!

No they have put the good of the country ahead of narrow party interest.

I tend to think of Labour in power as the worst outcome - this week merely confirming my fears as an adviser, investor and indeed resident of the UK - I believe the Tories have many failings but compared to the economic stewardship of Labour and the ongoing 'tightrope' we remain on economically - individual non leftie back-benchers who throw their toys out ahead of May 2015 are putting their own pet-interests ahead of the broad country interest.

Simply it's whether they want Ed Balls as Chancellor & Ed M as PM or they don't - which camp is it Turncoat Carswell?

You would be better asking that question of Cameron since it is he as PM who has driven so many traditional Tory supporters away from the party. If one of the most inept Oppositions in decades manages to win it will be down to Cameron not Farage.

Richard_Tyndall said:

I agree with you about the by-election principle. As you know I don't actually agree that we vote for a party as opposed to an individual representative and so would not like to see an MP forced to stand again as that would give too much power to the parties and would reinforce the misconception that people are voting for a party.

But I do believe that it is the honorable thing for an MP to do and as such would much prefer that to be the case.

No idea how close we would have to get to the GE for it to be rolled up. Apparently the rules are that a writ should be moved within 3 months of the vacancy arising. This can be extended up to 4 months if the subsequent by-election would be held within a month of a GE. According to the HoC Library the By-election must be held between 21 and 27 days after the writ is moved.

So if the next GE is in May then I would expect any by elections after the beginning of 2015 to be rolled up into the GE.

Thanks for that - the beginning of the year seems like a good estimate.

In what might seem like a staggering run of agreeing with each other, I've always said on here that I vote for a candidate, not a party - which has led to my rather odd voting pattern that some on here seem to find rather unbelievable, causing them to invoke Plato.

However, we live in a political climate where you and I are sadly unusual, I fear, and most people put their cross behind a party, not a candidate. For that reason I think it's the right thing for a candidate to stand for re-election, although as I've said passim it's inconsistent with my vote-for-a-candidate stance.

Going back on topic: if UKIP do not unveil two Conservative MPs in the next few days, then they'll look a little foolish. What will really set the cat amongst the pigeons is if, as someone mentions below, a Labour MP or two make the change.

Although I'd find it hilarious if a Lib Dem made the change. After all, a certain number of Lib Dem supporters appear to have moved over to UKIP...

Roger said:

Scrapheap

"It is impressive how no Lib Dems have jumped, particularly to Labour for those from the SDP part of the Yellow team. Not even a sniff of a defection."

In the pantheon of defections I wouldn't think the scalp of a Lib Dem at the moment would seem like a triumph

I think the defectors will be Cameron and Osborne

@IsabelHardman: Rumoured Tory Ukip defector: ‘I’d much rather be in coalition with Ukip than Lib Dems but I’m not going to defect' http://t.co/KaZBCs6Dde

HurstLlama said:

"Defamation is not available to dead people and insulting someone is not, thank God, yet a crime."

May I refer the right honourable lady to the discussions on this site over the past few weeks on the workings of the Public Order Act and in particular the expositions of it by our learned friend, Life in a market Town.

Insulting someone (alive or dead) can indeed be a criminal offence and this has been the case since at least 1936.

The relevant section is Section 29B: (1) A person who uses threatening words or behaviour, or displays any written material which is threatening, is guilty of an offence if he intends thereby to stir up religious hatred.

That does not make it an offence to insult someone nor does it prevent someone from calling Mohammed or Jesus or Buddha an asshole.

Free speech needs to be defended.

Given the original wording which Labour wanted to put in, I have little confidence that that they won't try the same trick again.

Peter Bone MP ‏@PeterBoneMP 49s

Ladbrokes have me as favourite to defect to UKIP (EVENS) and to be next leader of the Conservative party (200 to 1) NEITHER ARE GOOD BETS!!!

I think Kettering would be a much tougher by-election than Clacton. UKIP would look rank amateurs if they got a defecting MP - then lost the by-election.

A defection of Hollobone nearer the election, to avoid the by-election might be a smarter move. Or maybe the new defectors won't be as honorable as Carswell and just sit tight - which is tricky after Carswell has done "the decent thing" (in causing the unnecessary expense for the good folk of Clacton just to give him a revised mandate - and UKIP some extra publicity...)

TheWatcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Scrapheap

"It is impressive how no Lib Dems have jumped, particularly to Labour for those from the SDP part of the Yellow team. Not even a sniff of a defection."

In the pantheon of defections I wouldn't think the scalp of a Lib Dem at the moment would seem like a triumph

I think the defectors will be Cameron and Osborne

After this week, perhaps Miliband?

Or Mr and Mrs Balls?

Peter Bone has spoken:
Peter Bone MP ‏@PeterBoneMP 3m
Ladbrokes have me as favourite to defect to UKIP (EVENS) and to be next leader of the Conservative party (200 to 1) NEITHER ARE GOOD BETS!!!

The London Muslim who murders for ISIS identified by FBI

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2769850/BREAKING-NEWS-FBI-says-identified-Jihadi-John.html??ito==social-twitter_dailymailus

Watcher

"Is she a Fruitcake or a Loon?"

I think she's both.

Why should I be laying her?

Luckyguy1983 said:

I don't believe this story. It smacks of a CCHQ meme to paint UKIP as a cocky, entitled bunch of political gameplayers. It won't happen, and when it doesn't, the attempt will be made in the press to portray the lack of defections as the tide turning against UKIP.

The masterstroke for UKIP here would be to respond by getting a totally unexpected and un-briefed about Labour defection.

It great... Ukip haven't said anything is going to happen... And if nothing happens ukip haters will be crowing about how stupid ukip look

stodge said:

Evening all

As I recall, Barry Porter died in November 1996 and the Wirral South By-election was held in late February 1997 so there's still time for by-elections in this Parliament.

IF nothing happens, it's a poor effort by UKIP and makes them look foolish. I struggle with the concept of a defection but if an MP resigns and wants to fight the by-election under a different banner, so be it.

Two defections dovetailing the UKIP and Conservative Conferences will make for an interesting few days.

On that basis, it's arguably a no-lose ruse by UKIP. If the only potentially downside is they look foolish, well, many of us would argue that this is no downside at all, given where they are starting from.

MarqueeMark said:

UKIP would look rank amateurs if they got a defecting MP - then lost the by-election.

That outcomeof any defection to UKIP would probably be pretty satisfactory for Cameron. It would have no effect on his coalition, if the UKIPper lost it would underline that they are flippant and foolish, and if UKIP lost the seat to any lefty rather than back to the Conservatives, it would underline the message that a vote for UKIP is a vote against an EU referendum.

If this happened ahead of a GE, rather than being a horrible realisation after one, Cameron could probably consider himself a lucky general.

Just some more detail on Kettering - in 2010, the Tories won 49.1%, Labour 29.9%. The LibDems 15.8%. (Worryingly for the LibDems in any by-election, the Bus Pass Elvis Candidate Dave Bishop stood in 2010, so will have a finely honed operation ready to go to beat them again....)

If there was a by-election, you would have to think that Labour would flood the seat, hoping (expecting) to come through the middle of a hopelessly split Tory/UKIP vote

Luckyguy1983 said:

The masterstroke for UKIP here would be to respond by getting a totally unexpected and un-briefed about Labour defection.

Regardless of whether the rumours are true, a Labour defection would be very useful thing for UKIP to have, especially if rumours of Labour panic over a loss in Heywood turns out to be mere rabble rousing from Labour. Too many Tory defections or only wins in Tory areas, and attempts to cut into the Labour heartlands could be undermined by the accusation that they are, despite protestations, nothing but a place for disaffected Tories. An old attack, but one which could be renewed if the only breakthrough gains are in Tory areas.

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

They are going to look a bit stupid if there are no defections.

If UKIP is going to move leftwards to attract WWC, Old Labour voters how comfortable are right wing Tory MPs going to feel about signing up?

Just my opinion, but I think WWC old labour voters have more in common with ukip, and right wing Tories come to that, than the current Labour Party.

From a social/cultural perspective perhaps. But Old Labour was very much the party of strong trade unions, high taxes for the rich, nationalised industries, and so on. I am not sure such things come easily to right wing Tories and the UKIP leadership.

The thing is, UKIP don't actually have to explicitly promise those things to get working-class Labour voters. They just have to imply that by sending the immigrants away, there'll be more jobs/higher wages/more to spend on the NHS. Very disingenuous, but with Labour in the current state it is (essentially saying that the wellbeing of the working-class is less important than the sodding deficit and big businesses, not to mention speaking like they're in a Cambridge seminar), that's enough.

Luckyguy1983 said:

I don't believe this story. It smacks of a CCHQ meme to paint UKIP as a cocky, entitled bunch of political gameplayers. It won't happen, and when it doesn't, the attempt will be made in the press to portray the lack of defections as the tide turning against UKIP.

The masterstroke for UKIP here would be to respond by getting a totally unexpected and un-briefed about Labour defection.

I heard a rumour it could be Michael Green ( sorry I meant Grant Shapps)

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

The masterstroke for UKIP here would be to respond by getting a totally unexpected and un-briefed about Labour defection.

Regardless of whether the rumours are true, a Labour defection would be very useful thing for UKIP to have, especially if rumours of Labour panic over a loss in Heywood turns out to be mere rabble rousing from Labour. Too many Tory defections or only wins in Tory areas, and attempts to cut into the Labour heartlands could be undermined by the accusation that they are, despite protestations, nothing but a place for disaffected Tories. An old attack, but one which could be renewed if the only breakthrough gains are in Tory areas.

A Labour MP joining UKIP would be extraordinary as it would mean repudiating so much. By contrast it is but a short skip for a Tory to join a party led by self-described Thatcherites. The Labour defection would certainly have huge impact, but would also be likely to be seen as a one off - unless it indicated a move left by UKIP. That said, keep an eye on Kate Hoey.

Interestingly, Mark Reckless's seat has a similar profile to Kettering - in 2010, Tory 49.2, Labour 28.5%, LibDems 16.3%, English Democrats 4.5%. Again, Labour would flood it with activists from London to try to come through the middle on a split Tory/UKIP vote. 35% might just be enough.

So another seat where UKIP wouldn't want to look like prats by losing a by-election...