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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days
To the alarm of Conservative HQ, Ukip party secretary Matthew Richardson has boasted privately that two turncoats have agreed to switch parties, according to two separate sources.
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"Two more traitorous pigs dogs rumoured to be about to defect to UKIP"
Really? its a foregone conclusion, isn't it?
UKIP handled the Carswell defection well (with the exception of not getting the existing PCC on board) but they seem to have rather got carried away with themselves here and it strikes me they are heading for a fall if they are not very careful.
As with Carswell, UKIP stood aside in 2010.
UKIP haven't named a candidate in Kettering because they are waiting for him to defect according to reports.
I would like to know which English laws this contravenes. Defamation is not available to dead people and insulting someone is not, thank God, yet a crime.
As TSE mentions, if there are defectors, I hope they follow Carswell's honourable actions and call a by-election. Although I hope they have the guts to call Cameron and/or the chief whip first.
As for timing: might it be that UKIP want the publicity from by-elections coming up the GE, and therefore want them *before* the election? If the MPs have currently safe seats, and can transfer many Conservative members over with them (as it appears Carswell has done), that would seem to be a risky but sane strategy to build momentum.
I wonder when a resignation would not trigger a by-election, but be automatically rolled up into the GE? How long could it be dragged out? What are the precedents?
*gets popcorn in*
But maybe nothing will happen. Not long to wait.
asked at a dinner with editors whether he'd rather push farage or salmond off beachy head, cameron said "salmond. business before pleasure."
May I refer the right honourable lady to the discussions on this site over the past few weeks on the workings of the Public Order Act and in particular the expositions of it by our learned friend, Life in a market Town.
Insulting someone (alive or dead) can indeed be a criminal offence and this has been the case since at least 1936.
It begs the question. If we are heading towards a continental style five party system, where is the new force on the harder left? Will it take a piss poor Miliband government or coalition to create a new force on the left? A sort of socialist UKIP?
Erm.. Nigel, the world does not revolve around you. There are a few bigger things going on at the moment than the Kipper conference.
Coming out with things like that portrays them, rightly or wrongly, as the 'loonies'.
Realistically it could be any Tory MP from the east or the south.
But practically any one who is sure of his re-election under UKIP.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2007/oct/03/wrap.michellepauli
But I do believe that it is the honorable thing for an MP to do and as such would much prefer that to be the case.
No idea how close we would have to get to the GE for it to be rolled up. Apparently the rules are that a writ should be moved within 3 months of the vacancy arising. This can be extended up to 4 months if the subsequent by-election would be held within a month of a GE. According to the HoC Library the By-election must be held between 21 and 27 days after the writ is moved.
So if the next GE is in May then I would expect any by elections after the beginning of 2015 to be rolled up into the GE.
That compares well for party discipline to the EU headbangers on the Tory side who have put that anti-EU obsession ahead of their country (from my perspective of making a Labour Govt more likely that is).
Put that in your pipe and smoke it Turncoat Carswell - viva Rev Oswald!!!!
It won't be Rosindell, Redwood, Rees-Mogg or Cash either.
Not sure it'll be anyone.
@TSEofPB My money's on Kettering MP Philip Holobone being next CON MP to join UKIP though @LadPolitics only allowed me to put £10 on at 10/1
If UKIP is going to move leftwards to attract WWC, Old Labour voters how comfortable are right wing Tory MPs going to feel about signing up?
http://www.wandsworthguardian.co.uk/news/11482512.Has_Banksy_been_to_Battersea_/
UKIP must be quite close to LD territory in achieving seats. 20-50 is really possible - hugely unlikely at the moment, but still possible. Currently it looks like those would be stolen from the Tories, however if they can make some gains in Labour-land then it could be an enormously interesting GE. Suppose 40 UKIP, and 40 LD's, plus a neutered Scots contingent could make for exciting times. I concede entirely that it'd perhaps just make Ed's reading of tractor production every week just that little bit more euthanasing too.
I'm almost in the UKIP camp myself as Cameron (who I like) gets chummy with Gordon Brown (who I like really quite a lot less).
Simply it's whether they want Ed Balls as Chancellor & Ed M as PM or they don't - which camp is it Turncoat Carswell?
As I recall, Barry Porter died in November 1996 and the Wirral South By-election was held in late February 1997 so there's still time for by-elections in this Parliament.
IF nothing happens, it's a poor effort by UKIP and makes them look foolish. I struggle with the concept of a defection but if an MP resigns and wants to fight the by-election under a different banner, so be it.
Two defections dovetailing the UKIP and Conservative Conferences will make for an interesting few days.
Someone has repeated a private conversation... Or is that "announcing" in journalese?
That said I do like the fact he is the least expensive MP in Parliament.
There has been a movement of WWC voters to UKIP but they are not generally ones who have recently voted Labour , if they have voted at all in recent elections , they have voted BNP , Lib Dem or even Conservative .
"It is impressive how no Lib Dems have jumped, particularly to Labour for those from the SDP part of the Yellow team. Not even a sniff of a defection."
In the pantheon of defections I wouldn't think the scalp of a Lib Dem at the moment would seem like a triumph
In what might seem like a staggering run of agreeing with each other, I've always said on here that I vote for a candidate, not a party - which has led to my rather odd voting pattern that some on here seem to find rather unbelievable, causing them to invoke Plato.
However, we live in a political climate where you and I are sadly unusual, I fear, and most people put their cross behind a party, not a candidate. For that reason I think it's the right thing for a candidate to stand for re-election, although as I've said passim it's inconsistent with my vote-for-a-candidate stance.
Going back on topic: if UKIP do not unveil two Conservative MPs in the next few days, then they'll look a little foolish. What will really set the cat amongst the pigeons is if, as someone mentions below, a Labour MP or two make the change.
Although I'd find it hilarious if a Lib Dem made the change. After all, a certain number of Lib Dem supporters appear to have moved over to UKIP...
UKIP has form in pre-announcing MPs who are almost ready to defect - can't see the point in trailing it. I can confirm it won't be Rosindell, who team have just been in touch with me to confirm arrangements for an event I'm doing with him at the Conservative conference.
"I certainly would not support his views on banning the burka or reintroducing the death penalty."
How can you be a UKIPer without entering into the spirit?
That does not make it an offence to insult someone nor does it prevent someone from calling Mohammed or Jesus or Buddha an asshole.
Free speech needs to be defended.
Given the original wording which Labour wanted to put in, I have little confidence that that they won't try the same trick again.
Ladbrokes have me as favourite to defect to UKIP (EVENS) and to be next leader of the Conservative party (200 to 1) NEITHER ARE GOOD BETS!!!
A defection of Hollobone nearer the election, to avoid the by-election might be a smarter move. Or maybe the new defectors won't be as honorable as Carswell and just sit tight - which is tricky after Carswell has done "the decent thing" (in causing the unnecessary expense for the good folk of Clacton just to give him a revised mandate - and UKIP some extra publicity...)
Peter Bone MP @PeterBoneMP 3m
Ladbrokes have me as favourite to defect to UKIP (EVENS) and to be next leader of the Conservative party (200 to 1) NEITHER ARE GOOD BETS!!!
I think we should move on from this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2769850/BREAKING-NEWS-FBI-says-identified-Jihadi-John.html??ito==social-twitter_dailymailus
"Is she a Fruitcake or a Loon?"
I think she's both.
Why should I be laying her?
Maybe marginally higher tax rates, but the slightly favourable economics come with the baggage of a philosophy that is a million miles away from them
The masterstroke for UKIP here would be to respond by getting a totally unexpected and un-briefed about Labour defection.
If this happened ahead of a GE, rather than being a horrible realisation after one, Cameron could probably consider himself a lucky general.
If there was a by-election, you would have to think that Labour would flood the seat, hoping (expecting) to come through the middle of a hopelessly split Tory/UKIP vote
The great bulk of working class voters aren't attracted to UKIP. And former Labour voters certainly won't be won over by their pro-rich, pro-big Business, anti-poor, anti-public service loony Thatcherite policies.
And unlike some I don't make the odd distinction between "white" working class people and those with other skin colours.
So another seat where UKIP wouldn't want to look like prats by losing a by-election...