politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvio
Comments
-
Good point. Spreading the blame about would certainly help - and give the media something else to chew on.
The question for me is = how many seats could Kippers prize away from marginal Labour? Not necessarily enough to win, but to let the motivated Blue Team back in through the middle?
I'm feeling that the existential threat to the Tories from UKIP is waning. For Labour, it's waxing.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Isn't there a risk, though? If the Conservative voters are also aware of the higher profile Clacton by-election and the probable defeat of the blues there, they may consider that it'd be better for their party of UKIP won two seats (one extra from Labour) than just one from the Conservatives.0 -
Good morning begins with a swing:
Breitbart London @BreitbartLondon 9m
BREAKING: @Nigel_Farage stars in new @paddypower #rydercup advert: http://bit.ly/ZPi6c80 -
I think you'll find that most people in top jobs come from upper middle class backgrounds, regardless of where they've been educated.Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
"There's not a lot of difference between private schools and the top-performing State schools. "
There is when it comes to the "top" jobs?
Or don't you read the papers?
0 -
I missed this one - did he kiss her chin or something??SquareRoot said:
I have never liked Miliband, he looks odd, sounds odd, and to me, comes across on tv as a dork. I just cannot watch him for more than a few secs.
That said, when you have his disadvantages you just have to be spot on with your PR.. Is Miliband overriding his PR team, or are they less than useless?
How could he possibly miss.. when kissing his wife???.. I mean jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez.0 -
Miss Plato, the risk for the two largest parties is that UKIP's a threat but it's never going to form the next government. So both blues and reds may vote tactically *for* UKIP to try and rob the other side of seats.
On the other hand, the Conservatives are deeply worried about being usurped, and Labour need to wake up and realise the white working class have somewhere else to go (it's not just Labour or staying at home anymore).
At the Conservative by-election held shortly after the European elections it was suggested Labour voters may've, for the first time, voted tactically for the Conservatives. With the General Election on the horizon such behaviour may be less likely.0 -
SeanT will be seething:
@FraserNelson: The no1 threat to British democracy? PPE - an Oxford degree which produces an automaton governing class. Nick Cohen: http://t.co/53HcVrvAUL0 -
There was no mention of Predators vs Producers or other meaningless verbage. And at least the video feed didn't commit suicide during it this time.
That EdM just missed out immigration and the economy [accidentally on purpose] was just another variant on Ed Is Crap.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, whilst the speech was equal parts lacklustre and rubbish, it won't be. It lacks the single soundbite of awfulness. It was a slow death rather than the joyously fatal idiocy of Kinnock's moment.
0 -
@Sean_F
I know you hate the "biased" BBC, but it was all over the papers a few weeks ago if you want to google something more suited to your inclinations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-289538810 -
Disappearing posts?0
-
Alanbrooke
"they allow themselves to be bullied because they enjoy it...oh yes, oh yes Roger you big boy"
Ever since Ludlow UDC allowed the tattoo shop to open an S/M salon downstairs you just haven't been the same......0 -
Farage comes out swinging for Europe
"In the greatest reverse-ferret since Frank Maloney ditched the slacks, the Kent-born Eurosceptic has come out all guns blazing for his European chums as the star of this Paddy Power’s Ryder Cup political broadcast.
Yes, we thought Team Europe needed a suitable attention-seeker to drum up more home support. Jose Mourinho was sadly unavailable but Mr Farage (50) answered the call."
- See more at: http://blog.paddypower.com/2014/09/25/nigel-farage-comes-out-swinging-for-europe-go-behind-the-scenes-on-his-ryder-cup-video-shoot/#sthash.gW1GeLva.dpuf
0 -
F1 (ish): Brabham is resurrected, with the goal of returning to F1:
http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/9485096/brabham-team-is-revived-with-goal-of-formula-one-return0 -
Absurd hyperbole. Surely by your definition the concept of private property ended when VAT and stamp duty were introduced?Patrick said:Thanks all for clarifying Ed's speech omissions.
So...he's going to end the concept of private property ownership by introducing mansion taxes (which will fall overwhelmingly in Tory voting England) "0 -
The social background of the majority of the elite who didn't attend private schools is not very different from those who did. Most people in top jobs are drawn from the richest 10-15% of the population. The key thing is to have gone to a leading university, particularly Oxbridge.Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
I know you hate the "biased" BBC, but it was all over the papers a few weeks ago if you want to google something more suited to your inclinations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-28953881
0 -
I said there was value in UKIP there on the Tuesday (or thereabouts) after poor Jim Dobbin died. But obviously the hat-tip belongs to S O Else...isam said:
A leftie???!Innocent_Abroad said:
Not if he's a leftie. Matter of principle.isam said:In thread headers like this, isn't there normally a hat tip to a poster who told everyone to get on a bet at 10/1 which is now 3/1?
0 -
Plato
"What I find so perplexing here [and I speak as an ex-PR bod] is that Labour are completely confusing their emotional dislike of The Sun with their own strategic agenda."
That'll get them all scrabbling for their PR manuals0 -
You ignore the orchestrated campaign led by Labour against the Sun and Murdoch, for the cardinal sin of backing the 'wrong' side. Show me *anything* the Conservatives have done that has been as one-eyed and prejudicial. Go on. Despite things like the McAlpine affair.SouthamObserver said:
No, we won't agree because we do not have the same view. I find your belief that Labour has been more hostile to the BBC that the Tories laugh out loud hilarious. We see and hear things differently Josias.
As for the BBC: re-read what I said. The Conservative's attacks have been low-level grumbling, and nowhere near the same level of childish insipid hatred as Labour have shown for the Murdoch press.
Labour is not about politics: it is about control.0 -
His voice sounds desperately rattled.
I rather like Martha - Ed seems to be rather patronising to her. He really needs to stop doing that. It's very obvious on the radio.audreyanne said:I was actually quite worried about Miliband at one point because despite being an idiot he is clearly good at manipulative politicking. However, I'm starting to relax a little more because I evidently under-estimated just how big an idiot he is. It's fairly breathtaking to consider he might just be the most incompetent Labour leader since Michael Foot, and at least the latter had principles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzBP7FSDHMY#t=2490 -
But Labour have had it very easy up to now. The whole fixed term parliament malarkey means GE scrutiny has been minimal. As we get closer, and certainly come March, the heat will be turned up. Some of Miliband's policies are horrifically amateurish and ill-conceived, but it's the man himself that is going to be their biggest headache. He's hopeless. Absolutely hopeless.BenM said:
IDS was trailing in the polls.audreyanne said:There must be many Labour supporters who are silently despairing within.
It's an awful feeling when you know you're holding a dud. I knew it from the word go with IDS, and they will have the same inner despair. It's too late to do anything about it, and they'll give it their best shot, but they won't win the General Election with him.
Miliband, for all his faults (and I'm still exasperated with his speech peformance and foolish decision to "go noteless") is leading.
Plus Miliband's policy platform is far superior to the IDS Tories.0 -
I am not sure Labour should be investing much PR time and money in trying to get the Sun or the Mail on board.Roger said:Plato
"What I find so perplexing here [and I speak as an ex-PR bod] is that Labour are completely confusing their emotional dislike of The Sun with their own strategic agenda."
That'll get them all scrabbling for their PR manuals
0 -
*guffaws*Scott_P said:
@jameschappers: Ex-Chancellor Denis Healey, 97, tells @henrydeedes of Miliband: "I knew his dad well and I've met Ed a few times. He's not very good is he?"
0 -
Look at the figures again, and remember that only circa 7% of the population is privately educated.Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
Look at the figures again, and remember that only circa 7% of the population is privately educated.
Or don't bother? Carry on in fantasyland if you like.
So what - Scottish communists have to be educated somewhere.0 -
@Alanbrooke
Did you attend the same private school as me? Or were you just guessing?0 -
And then depressingly, Mrs Duffy was seduced by her fame into still voting Labour.
I'd have sat on my hands.nigel4england said:
They don't know any ordinary people.SquareRoot said:
That is just hilarious.. WTF are Miliband's PR team doing??? They are supposed to protect him from making such stupid mistakes.....Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Miliband’s ‘ordinary girl’ has expensive private education: http://t.co/OZhY2Y6OBv
When they actually do meet one, as Gordon Brown did in Rochdale, they are horrified.0 -
You have to view his performance this week as a whole.Plato said:There was no mention of Predators vs Producers or other meaningless verbage. And at least the video feed didn't commit suicide during it this time.
That EdM just missed out immigration and the economy [accidentally on purpose] was just another variant on Ed Is Crap.
Then you fully appreciate the difficult he faces.
Yes, the speech was too long, lacked real policy clout and was met with less enthusiasm inside and outside the hall than he could have hoped.
But then it really started to go wrong.
They published the text - which showed what he missed out - which gave his enemies (inside and outside the party) the stick with which to beat him.
And, of course, he and his advisors didn't do enough to stem the tide of criticism.
1 - The deficit was not mentioned in the PPB. Now this was put together well in advance but they could - and arguably should - have made a tweak to a voice-over or similar to add a reference to the economic situation. But they didn't.
2 - The woeful performance on Channel 4 news. Firstly it was a mistake to be interviewed sat next to a hospital bed - it made him look like a patient not a leader. But to forget to mention the deficit again was just awful. It allowed Snow to attack on a single theme for the rest of the interview - removing the ability for Miliband to talk about anything positive he might have wanted to say.
Add to this Burnham and his popular acclaim in the hall (which will hardly be noticed in the wider world, of course) and Cooper's appeal for unity (a clear sign that something is wrong in the party) and it really has not been a good couple of days for Miliband.
The pressure on him to perform in the Commons tomorrow is immense.
He has set out a contradictory message - he supports airstrikes in Iraq but is demanding more before he will support them in Syria. Given that the two situations are absolutely part of the same problem, he cannot both support and oppose the measures necessary to deal with IS.
The public see the need for action. But Miliband is on the fence - trying, clearly, to retain the support of his anti-war friends whilst at the same time trying not to look like someone who is never prepared to go to war.
I don't believe he is has the rhetorical skills to make this split case resonate with the country as it is inherently flawed and not in our national or international interests.
I shall be watching the debate with interest to see how he performs - particularly in the light of last year's appalling behaviour over Syria where he played politics with foreign affairs and arguably allowed greater suffering to be inflicted on the Syrian people.
A week is a long time in politics - this is one of Miliband's longest and worst.0 -
Anyone else here think Miliband has "had it easy up to now"?audreyanne said:
But Labour have had it very easy up to now. The whole fixed term parliament malarkey means GE scrutiny has been minimal. As we get closer, and certainly come March, the heat will be turned up. Some of Miliband's policies are horrifically amateurish and ill-conceived, but it's the man himself that is going to be their biggest headache. He's hopeless. Absolutely hopeless.BenM said:
IDS was trailing in the polls.audreyanne said:There must be many Labour supporters who are silently despairing within.
It's an awful feeling when you know you're holding a dud. I knew it from the word go with IDS, and they will have the same inner despair. It's too late to do anything about it, and they'll give it their best shot, but they won't win the General Election with him.
Miliband, for all his faults (and I'm still exasperated with his speech peformance and foolish decision to "go noteless") is leading.
Plus Miliband's policy platform is far superior to the IDS Tories.
Anyone? No? Nor me.
0 -
That World at One interview was far worse than the Jon Snow one for Miliband. The Jon Snow one he actually handled fairly well on rocky ground - there's only so well you can play it when you forgot half your conference speech. But now, as a leader of the Labour party, he's practicing Voodoo Economics that tax cuts pay for themselves? The interviewer properly skewered him on this point.0
-
Irish mate, with us private schools were for the cream of society - you had to be rich and thick. You posh Jocko lefties spend all your time talking and leave others to do the work.Smarmeron said:@Alanbrooke
Did you attend the same private school as me? Or were you just guessing?0 -
Out of curiosity - have you been involved in any work in Iraq? I've just been re-reading the excellent Bankrolling Basra by Andrew Alderson and his frustration with DfID and Whitehall when it came to rebuilding the southern Iraqi economy is huge. He's an ex Lazard's man who was put in charge of trying to fix things just after Saddam was deposed.
A great read if you have the time.Financier said:
@Foxinsoxuk.foxinsoxuk said:
I have a friend who works in a specialist engineering firm. They are increasingly reliant on a handful of senior skilled workers now into their fifties.Smarmeron said:@Charles
Don't try to buck the issue. Our companies have basically been doing as little training as possible. Since the glory days of Thatcherism, right through Phony Blairs years, they have looked to the cheapest option like good little Thatcherites. Now as those people are retiring, they are whining that there is a shortage of trained personnel for them to hire.
How much foresight would that have taken? The answer is none at all if they had opened their ears and listened.
You make an excellent point - many of today's graduates lack a wide technical base to support their speciality. Those coming from the BRIC countries as well as parts of Europe have received this training.
@Charles: You suggest SMEs interacting with their local university -ours does not even understand what we do and only offer advice for a fat fee. Other universities we have tried to work with are very precious over our IPR which they want to splash across publications.
Today, I need four radical thinking, very good scientists/engineers (for the SME consultancy with which I am working) which it looks like we will have to source outside the UK. Recently we have won contracts with global companies operating in Mexico, KSA, Malaysia and Slovakia. The main problem has been financing our cash flow to support these contracts. None of the banks are interested, indeed many will not countenance business in the BRIC countries, Middle East or South America. So we have had to resort to unusual financing. However the local office of the UKTI have been excellent in supplying local knowledge. GO really needs to sort out export and export-supporting finance.0 -
Me neither which is why I didn't say it.BenM said:
Anyone else here think Miliband has "had it easy up to now"?audreyanne said:
But Labour have had it very easy up to now. The whole fixed term parliament malarkey means GE scrutiny has been minimal. As we get closer, and certainly come March, the heat will be turned up. Some of Miliband's policies are horrifically amateurish and ill-conceived, but it's the man himself that is going to be their biggest headache. He's hopeless. Absolutely hopeless.BenM said:
IDS was trailing in the polls.audreyanne said:There must be many Labour supporters who are silently despairing within.
It's an awful feeling when you know you're holding a dud. I knew it from the word go with IDS, and they will have the same inner despair. It's too late to do anything about it, and they'll give it their best shot, but they won't win the General Election with him.
Miliband, for all his faults (and I'm still exasperated with his speech peformance and foolish decision to "go noteless") is leading.
Plus Miliband's policy platform is far superior to the IDS Tories.
Anyone? No? Nor me.
I said, 'Labour have had it very easy up to now.'0 -
@Alanbrooke
"You posh Jocko lefties spend all your time talking and leave others to do the work"
Now now, surely it doesn't matter were you are educated? All it takes is "working your connections"? Isn't it the same in Ireland?0 -
Spot on. Jon Snow looked personally betrayed. It was like he was facing his Great White Hope and discovered that he really didn't have the cojones to ever win for him.
PS I've just found a bunch of emails in my spam trap!! So sorry to have missed you down my way - did you enjoy Battle Abbey or Michelem Priory?Gadfly said:
Precisely! I believe his anger stemmed from the fact that by denying the deficit Miliband was leaving himself exposed to attack; thereby reducing out the prospect of a Labour government acquiring office next year..Scrapheap_as_was said:
I don't normally watch C4 news but had gained the impression he was viewed as a bit of a guardianista normally?0 -
SO.
"I am not sure Labour should be investing much PR time and money in trying to get the Sun or the Mail on board."
I'm sure they won't. My instinct says that he should take on some of the press up to and including an amusing poster campaign. Nothing shows confidence like it and few institutions are more unpopular and derided than the tabloids whatever their individual readership.0 -
It is silly to suggest that a speech that was instantly forgettable even when we were listening to it is somehow going to change the public mood or the perception of Ed.
What he has done, however, is to get every interviewer who he meets between now and the election geared up to ask him what he thinks is the most important thing. If he tries to talk about anything else he will be asked about the deficit. If he talks about the deficit he will be asked more questions about the deficit and its impact on his spending plans. This will be a major problem which will make it more difficult for Ed and Labour to get out their message and this will be significant.
If he had said those 3 missing paragraphs that might not have happened. The missing paragraphs were pathetic and so unconnected with the rest of his speech that it is not surprising that he forgot them. The implications of having to pay £75bn a year in debt interest were ignored as were the fact that it means that other areas of spending will have to be cut year on year to pay the interest until our debt starts to fall.
But he has made a serious rod for his own back here and he will come to regret it.0 -
Utter garbage.Smarmeron said:@Charles
Don't try to buck the issue. Our companies have basically been doing as little training as possible. Since the glory days of Thatcherism, right through Phony Blairs years, they have looked to the cheapest option like good little Thatcherites. Now as those people are retiring, they are whining that there is a shortage of trained personnel for them to hire.
How much foresight would that have taken? The answer is none at all if they had opened their ears and listened.
There are, of course, businesses that rely largely on cheap labour (eg agriculture, catering) but these are not strategic priorities in terms of growing the economy.
If you look at our specialist engineers - Rolls, Dyson, BAe, JCB, etc, they spend a huge amount on training and development.
The problem though is the fundamental failure of the education system has resulted in so many kids that are unprepared for real life.
There is so much wasted potential in this country it makes me f*cking livid.0 -
Its quite simple. The other 93% had parents who either didn't love them or couldn't afford children but went ahead anyway, in an utterly irresponsible fashion. Sean Fear will explain the details to you, I can't be *rsed...Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
Look at the figures again, and remember that only circa 7% of the population is privately educated.
Or don't bother? Carry on in fantasyland if you like.
0 -
Looking at the YG 2010 retentions, this month the Labour average retention is down by ~1% and also its hold on the RedLDs by the same amount.
Losses are to UKIP, Cons and Greens.0 -
What no-one seems to have commented on yet is the knock-on effect of the proposed Mansion Tax. It is not just those houses that are in the £2m range, but those priced not much above a million that people are now reluctant to buy, for fear of being caught. This is already happening, I am told.
The great irony is that Ed's lasting legacy might be in reducing house price inflation. And as a raft of people can't sell their £2m+ houses, they have to reduce the price to below the threshold for capture by the tax. So by threatening to introduce it, Mr Market reduces the number of properties that would ever pay it. Not that that will stop the army of valuers, who will be employed on contracts that incentivise them for every £2m property they can locate. Which would become an early source of outrage in Ed's premiership.
I also suspect that to defeat the tax, a lot of estate agents might find they have many, many properties on their books priced at £1,950,000 where the "sellers" seem remarkably reluctant to show potential buyers around....
I also suspect there will be a large number of flats created in large properties, where granny or the children will live separate from the main house. A £2m property becomes a £1.6m and a £400k property. How are you going to deal with that, Ed?0 -
The Green party position is absurd. Does Rochdale have devolved governance?isam said:The local paper asked the candidates for Heywood and Middleton about the WLQ
"The Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Heywood and Middleton, Iain Gartisde, claims Labour should stand up and “do the right thing” by backing English votes for English law in Parliament. "
The Liberal Democrat candidate, Anthony Smith said: “It is clearly nonsense that Scottish MPs should be able to vote on things that only affect England"
John Bickley, UKIP parliamentary candidate for Heywood and Middleton, said: “We want a new constitutional settlement for the UK which includes a fair deal for the 86% of the UK’s population who live in England."
Abi Jackson, the Green party’s candidate, said: "For there just to be a ban on Scottish MPs voting on English issues, would be a fundamental break of the constitution of the United Kingdom. It would be like saying that Middleton or Heywood councillors could not vote on Rochdale issues at Council meetings.
Labour candidate, Liz McInnes did not respond."
http://www.rochdaleonline.co.uk/news-features/2/news-headlines/91519/heywood-and-middleton-candidates-express-views-on-banning-scottish-mps-from-voting-on-english-laws0 -
Ok I'm calling you out as Seumas Milne :-)Smarmeron said:@Alanbrooke
"You posh Jocko lefties spend all your time talking and leave others to do the work"
Now now, surely it doesn't matter were you are educated? All it takes is "working your connections"? Isn't it the same in Ireland?0 -
That was an old interview (from 2013) and it did show that he was sent out with a prepared line that the VAT cut would cost £12bn and would help generate growth. He wasn't sent out with an answer to the vital point of how you cover the costs until that growth has kicked in.Socrates said:That World at One interview was far worse than the Jon Snow one for Miliband. The Jon Snow one he actually handled fairly well on rocky ground - there's only so well you can play it when you forgot half your conference speech. But now, as a leader of the Labour party, he's practicing Voodoo Economics that tax cuts pay for themselves? The interviewer properly skewered him on this point.
Yes, as someone with at least some academic background in economics (whatever ever you think about Oxford PPE, it does give you a bit of grounding in it) he should have a clue as to how to respond to this without briefing notes.
But I think he is surrounded by people who have no idea on how to prepare him for major interviews or events.
That is why he keeps tripping up in spectacular fashion.
And we cannot afford a badly-briefed PM who can't think for himself.0 -
"Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner, that I hate Eng-er-land..."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2769098/BREAKING-NEWS-Nine-men-arrested-counter-terror-police-London-suspicion-encouraging-terrorism.html0 -
OK.JosiasJessop said:
You ignore the orchestrated campaign led by Labour against the Sun and Murdoch, for the cardinal sin of backing the 'wrong' side. Show me *anything* the Conservatives have done that has been as one-eyed and prejudicial. Go on. Despite things like the McAlpine affair.SouthamObserver said:
No, we won't agree because we do not have the same view. I find your belief that Labour has been more hostile to the BBC that the Tories laugh out loud hilarious. We see and hear things differently Josias.
As for the BBC: re-read what I said. The Conservative's attacks have been low-level grumbling, and nowhere near the same level of childish insipid hatred as Labour have shown for the Murdoch press.
Labour is not about politics: it is about control.
0 -
Grumpy this morning.. were you playing weak 2's?Innocent_Abroad said:
Its quite simple. The other 93% had parents who either didn't love them or couldn't afford children but went ahead anyway, in an utterly irresponsible fashion. Sean Fear will explain the details to you, I can't be *rsed...Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
Look at the figures again, and remember that only circa 7% of the population is privately educated.
Or don't bother? Carry on in fantasyland if you like.0 -
UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%BenM said:
Nope, it's the result of Bovine effluent emitter Osborne's failure on jobs, prospects and kids.Sean_F said:
The deficit, however, is "jobs, prospects, and kids".RochdalePioneers said:Loving the deficit obsession. What people are talking about on the doorstep is jobs and prospects and their kids. They aren't saying we should sacrifice all of that for "the deficit". And why is Osborne struggling with the deficit at the moment according to economists? Because tax receipts are nowhere near prediction. So get people working and they pay tax. Go after tax dodgers and they pay tax. Get the economy working for actual people as opposed to paper stats and people buy stuff, and in doing so they pay tax.
So the deficit obsession in the media is the death rattle of an establishment desperately trying to keep people focused on austerity, on cuts, on doing without. So that the people at the top don't have to
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?0 -
She told me that her dad was loaded...Slackbladder said:
The current labour party reminds me of the woman in 'Common people' by pulp....nigel4england said:
They don't know any ordinary people.SquareRoot said:
That is just hilarious.. WTF are Miliband's PR team doing??? They are supposed to protect him from making such stupid mistakes.....Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Miliband’s ‘ordinary girl’ has expensive private education: http://t.co/OZhY2Y6OBv
When they actually do meet one, as Gordon Brown did in Rochdale, they are horrified.
'She studied sculpture at St Martins collage...she came from Greece and had a thirst for knowledge'
'Because you think that poor is cool......'
0 -
@Alanbrooke
Not even in the ballpark, or hurling pitch for that matter. :-)0 -
Indeedee.
Primrose Hill intellectuals and Guardianistas. A friend of mine is hardcore and proud WWC Northern Lefty who works for the NHS. He's despairing of EdM and wants Gordon back as at least he'd give Cameron a run for his money personality wise.
I can see his logic. He also hates the piss taking by asylum seeking AKA economic migrants after working for the Asylum team in Hastings. I made disbelieving remark about 8 month pregnant Nigerian ladies turning up here and he got really funny about it and said it was all true.
He also talked about diversity and Labour, that it'd destroyed our British identity, and cited numerous examples of it. I was really quite taken about how upset he was about it all as he's pretty mild mannered most of the time. The disconnect between him and Labour hierarchy was massive.Slackbladder said:
The current labour party reminds me of the woman in 'Common people' by pulp....nigel4england said:
They don't know any ordinary people.SquareRoot said:
That is just hilarious.. WTF are Miliband's PR team doing??? They are supposed to protect him from making such stupid mistakes.....Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Miliband’s ‘ordinary girl’ has expensive private education: http://t.co/OZhY2Y6OBv
When they actually do meet one, as Gordon Brown did in Rochdale, they are horrified.
'She studied sculpture at St Martins collage...she came from Greece and had a thirst for knowledge'
'Because you think that poor is cool......'0 -
On current trends, the Eurozone won't get down to UK unemployment levels until 2025...
"Euro crisis over" etc.0 -
Brown and bigot gateMarqueeMark said:
She told me that her dad was loaded...Slackbladder said:
The current labour party reminds me of the woman in 'Common people' by pulp....nigel4england said:
They don't know any ordinary people.SquareRoot said:
That is just hilarious.. WTF are Miliband's PR team doing??? They are supposed to protect him from making such stupid mistakes.....Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Miliband’s ‘ordinary girl’ has expensive private education: http://t.co/OZhY2Y6OBv
When they actually do meet one, as Gordon Brown did in Rochdale, they are horrified.
'She studied sculpture at St Martins collage...she came from Greece and had a thirst for knowledge'
'Because you think that poor is cool......'
"You will never understand
How it feels to live your life
With no meaning or control
And with nowhere left to go
You are amazed that they exist"0 -
Nor with influence. The Sun prints something - others run with it.Gadfly said:
Never confuse sales with readership.BenM said:
The Sun is about to dip below 2m sales a day. It is not the influence it once was.SouthamObserver said:Anybody who seriously believes that Ed not doing the Sun's bidding on Help for Heroes is going to change anything is not very bright.
The Sun will eviscerate him now, but they were going to do it anyway. There was only a downside for Ed in playing along.0 -
They are well used to it after having endured Brown for 3 years they stumbled into 4 years of EdM. 7 years of duds, what amazing resiliance they possess?audreyanne said:There must be many Labour supporters who are silently despairing within.
It's an awful feeling when you know you're holding a dud. I knew it from the word go with IDS, and they will have the same inner despair. It's too late to do anything about it, and they'll give it their best shot, but they won't win the General Election with him.
0 -
I'm not sure that there are enough houses in the >£1 million mark to make that much of a difference to house price inflation. They are swamped out by the lower-priced housing. Then there are a considerable number of people for whom paying the mansion tax will be inconsequential.MarqueeMark said:What no-one seems to have commented on yet is the knock-on effect of the proposed Mansion Tax. It is not just those houses that are in the £2m range, but those priced not much above a million that people are now reluctant to buy, for fear of being caught. This is already happening, I am told.
The great irony is that Ed's lasting legacy might be in reducing house price inflation. And as a raft of people can't sell their £2m+ houses, they have to reduce the price to below the threshold for capture by the tax. So by threatening to introduce it, Mr Market reduces the number of properties that would ever pay it. Not that that will stop the army of valuers, who will be employed on contracts that incentivise them for every £2m property they can locate. Which would become an early source of outrage in Ed's premiership.
I also suspect that to defeat the tax, a lot of estate agents might find they have many, many properties on their books priced at £1,950,000 where the "sellers" seem remarkably reluctant to show potential buyers around....
I also suspect there will be a large number of flats created in large properties, where granny or the children will live separate from the main house. A £2m property becomes a £1.6m and a £400k property. How are you going to deal with that, Ed?
I think you're right in saying that it may effect is the availability of flats. These large houses will still exist, and I can see many of them being split up into flat, each of which is worth much less than the target price. This could well be a positive, not only in terms of housing stock, but also in creating a boom time for builders specialising in flat conversions?
My biggest problem with the mansion tax is that I'm in no position to be charged it. Although it's going to be tough for many income-poor houseowners, it's a problem I'd quite like to have. ;-)0 -
MM
"The great irony is that Ed's lasting legacy might be in reducing house price inflation. And as a raft of people can't sell their £2m+ houses, they have to reduce the price to below the threshold for capture by the tax."
If Ed's legacy is that he reduces house prices-including at the top end-he'll probably get a statue in parliament square0 -
They are not going to run with Ed not cooperating with the Sun on H4H.Plato said:Nor with influence. The Sun prints something - others run with it.
Gadfly said:
Never confuse sales with readership.BenM said:
The Sun is about to dip below 2m sales a day. It is not the influence it once was.SouthamObserver said:Anybody who seriously believes that Ed not doing the Sun's bidding on Help for Heroes is going to change anything is not very bright.
The Sun will eviscerate him now, but they were going to do it anyway. There was only a downside for Ed in playing along.
0 -
The big point about this week is the dog that didn't bark.
We heard for 4 years that Ed had his poker hand hidden and that policy review teams were coming up with great ideas that would be revealed at the final conference before the GE.
We had nothing this week - nada.
0 -
The genius of "Osbournomics"
"It was "ludicrous" that the government had cut road maintenance budgets by £1.2bn over the four years from April 2011, but had then intermittently given £1.1bn of additional funding on nine separate occasions for reasons including flooding and winter damage to the roads, Mrs Hodge said."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-293525690 -
@Plato
No, not to date, we may have a problem getting insurance for our people or it being so high as to rule out participation.
Thank you for the info - will have a look at that tonight.
Our main problem is that many of the banks have just not caught up to the fact that most business is no longer inside the UK or even western Europe. If they just looked where the oil companies are prospecting/drilling they would know what is happening beyond the English Channel.Plato said:Out of curiosity - have you been involved in any work in Iraq? I've just been re-reading the excellent Bankrolling Basra by Andrew Alderson and his frustration with DfID and Whitehall when it came to rebuilding the southern Iraqi economy is huge. He's an ex Lazard's man who was put in charge of trying to fix things just after Saddam was deposed.
A great read if you have the time.Financier said:
@Foxinsoxuk.foxinsoxuk said:
I have a friend who works in a specialist engineering firm. They are increasingly reliant on a handful of senior skilled workers now into their fifties.Smarmeron said:@Charles
Don't try to buck the issue. Our companies have basically been doing as little training as possible. Since the glory days of Thatcherism, right through Phony Blairs years, they have looked to the cheapest option like good little Thatcherites. Now as those people are retiring, they are whining that there is a shortage of trained personnel for them to hire.
How much foresight would that have taken? The answer is none at all if they had opened their ears and listened.
You make an excellent point - many of today's graduates lack a wide technical base to support their speciality. Those coming from the BRIC countries as well as parts of Europe have received this training.
@Charles: You suggest SMEs interacting with their local university -ours does not even understand what we do and only offer advice for a fat fee. Other universities we have tried to work with are very precious over our IPR which they want to splash across publications.
Today, I need four radical thinking, very good scientists/engineers (for the SME consultancy with which I am working) which it looks like we will have to source outside the UK. Recently we have won contracts with global companies operating in Mexico, KSA, Malaysia and Slovakia. The main problem has been financing our cash flow to support these contracts. None of the banks are interested, indeed many will not countenance business in the BRIC countries, Middle East or South America. So we have had to resort to unusual financing. However the local office of the UKTI have been excellent in supplying local knowledge. GO really needs to sort out export and export-supporting finance.
0 -
EdM clearly struggles with eating a bacon butty or kissing his wife. This is however not the grounds to judge him on his suitability to be PM. But we can of course look forward to further embarrassments once in Number 10 as our Mr Bean, PM.Plato said:I missed this one - did he kiss her chin or something??
SquareRoot said:I have never liked Miliband, he looks odd, sounds odd, and to me, comes across on tv as a dork. I just cannot watch him for more than a few secs.
That said, when you have his disadvantages you just have to be spot on with your PR.. Is Miliband overriding his PR team, or are they less than useless?
How could he possibly miss.. when kissing his wife???.. I mean jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez.0 -
Golly Roger!
The best journalists I've met have worked at The Sun and Mail. These are very demanding places to work - the Mail in particular expects blood for their shekels. There no Lunchtime O'Booze for them, The Sun is another matter where being drunk appears to be the default to getting a good story/loosening unsuspecting tongues.Roger said:The funny thing is that anyone who has met journalists on the lower tabloids will know that a politician with 2 O'levels is much better educated and several times more articulate. Why they allow themselves to be bullied by people who are little better than 'special needs' is a mystery
0 -
By the 2015 election campaign UK unemployment will be half that of the Eurozone. It is a remarkable achievement and it frustrates those on the left mightily.Socrates said:
UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%BenM said:
Nope, it's the result of Bovine effluent emitter Osborne's failure on jobs, prospects and kids.Sean_F said:
The deficit, however, is "jobs, prospects, and kids".RochdalePioneers said:Loving the deficit obsession. What people are talking about on the doorstep is jobs and prospects and their kids. They aren't saying we should sacrifice all of that for "the deficit". And why is Osborne struggling with the deficit at the moment according to economists? Because tax receipts are nowhere near prediction. So get people working and they pay tax. Go after tax dodgers and they pay tax. Get the economy working for actual people as opposed to paper stats and people buy stuff, and in doing so they pay tax.
So the deficit obsession in the media is the death rattle of an establishment desperately trying to keep people focused on austerity, on cuts, on doing without. So that the people at the top don't have to
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?
So we hear and will hear endless stories about how these are not "real" jobs, that these are self employed monetising their hobbies for additional benefits and that some of this comes close to forced Labour. And there is some truth in these allegations. But a stable, consistent and credible macro-economic framework for the UK from Osborne and Alexander has made us job central of the EU. That really is an indisputable fact.0 -
Cameron's old tutor really nails his and the rest of the stupid party's absurdity on the grounds of bifurcation,which like magic did not materialise during the periods of Ulster Unionists maintaining Ulster Votes On English matters.Bifurcation nails the Tories on England.The stupid party cannot seem to see this plays into Ukip's hands too on immigration and the EU.Banging on about Europe has inevitably led to banging on about England which can only lead to more banging on about Europe,like a bunch of rowdy England football fans-"Inger-land,Inger-Land,Inger-land".That approach will not appease bifurcation or a bifurcated absurdity.0
-
I think this is totally correct and it is a huge problem for Labour. A lot of the people that vote for the party are completely alienated from it. And at some stage they are going to stop voting for it as a result. That's why I am not sure it is a good idea to assume that all those who went out to the polls for Labour last time will do so next year.Plato said:Indeedee.
Primrose Hill intellectuals and Guardianistas. A friend of mine is hardcore and proud WWC Northern Lefty who works for the NHS. He's despairing of EdM and wants Gordon back as at least he'd give Cameron a run for his money personality wise.
I can see his logic. He also hates the piss taking by asylum seeking AKA economic migrants after working for the Asylum team in Hastings. I made disbelieving remark about 8 month pregnant Nigerian ladies turning up here and he got really funny about it and said it was all true.
He also talked about diversity and Labour, that it'd destroyed our British identity, and cited numerous examples of it. I was really quite taken about how upset he was about it all as he's pretty mild mannered most of the time. The disconnect between him and Labour hierarchy was massive.Slackbladder said:
The current labour party reminds me of the woman in 'Common people' by pulp....nigel4england said:
They don't know any ordinary people.SquareRoot said:
That is just hilarious.. WTF are Miliband's PR team doing??? They are supposed to protect him from making such stupid mistakes.....Scott_P said:@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Miliband’s ‘ordinary girl’ has expensive private education: http://t.co/OZhY2Y6OBv
When they actually do meet one, as Gordon Brown did in Rochdale, they are horrified.
'She studied sculpture at St Martins collage...she came from Greece and had a thirst for knowledge'
'Because you think that poor is cool......'
0 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I was especially disappointed Miliband forgot to mention his free owl policy. If ever there was a vote-winner, that was it.0
-
You got quite a good indication of the ground Labour hopes to fight the GE on this week. It's not their fault if it passed you by.TGOHF said:The big point about this week is the dog that didn't bark.
We heard for 4 years that Ed had his poker hand hidden and that policy review teams were coming up with great ideas that would be revealed at the final conference before the GE.
We had nothing this week - nada.
0 -
I thought you were all about focusing on your core business?Alanbrooke said:
Good to see you're catching up with us metal bashers Charles - who knows one day you might even start lending us some money ! :-)Charles said:
The answer, of course, is education and training. Not tractor stats "50% must attend university" but real learning and practical experience.Smarmeron said:@Financier
"So where are the jobs coming from when we are outpriced by a lot of the world and their technical expertise and education is romping past ours."
Global capitalism is the race to exploit more workers at ever cheaper rates.
We both know that, but only one of us is considering the consequences.
The UK does this well if you know where to look.
For instance, I met up with someone the other day to discuss industrial Lancashire and how we can help.
It was clear from that discussion that there are a lot of high-skill SMEs in the area using precision engineering to make very specialist parts for BAe, the largest industrial employer. Quite different - frankly - from the image I had of Blackburn & Burnley. They are only just beginning to integrate with the local university, so work to be done, but they've at least identified what they need to do.
The next step is to encourage the SMEs to get involved in community engagement as well (they are good employers but don't do that much outside the factory walls)
That's what we do - why would I lend to corporates at wafer thin margins when I can lend to people who don't need the money instead?0 -
At the lower end of the £2m+ range of properties, the homes are not actually that large - they just happen to be in locations where prices have risen spectacularly. Whilst there will be some scope for dividing them - that is only a temporary fix.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not sure that there are enough houses in the >£1 million mark to make that much of a difference to house price inflation. They are swamped out by the lower-priced housing. Then there are a considerable number of people for whom paying the mansion tax will be inconsequential.
I think you're right in saying that it may effect is the availability of flats. These large houses will still exist, and I can see many of them being split up into flat, each of which is worth much less than the target price. This could well be a positive, not only in terms of housing stock, but also in creating a boom time for builders specialising in flat conversions?
My biggest problem with the mansion tax is that I'm in no position to be charged it. Although it's going to be tough for many income-poor houseowners, it's a problem I'd quite like to have. ;-)
Homeowners will be faced with the costs of splitting a property and then, as is seemingly inevitable, the value of the larger part of the house will continue to rise and will eventually be caught in the Mansion Tax Trap.
What happens then? Do they further subdivide?
This is all about the politics of envy - and is not a realistic policy for raising a sustainable amount of money for the exchequer.
No detail of how assessment of value will be done. No mention of the costs of this - or of how the money will be collected. And a complete lack of detail on how the system will cope with those people who are property rich and cash poor. The idea that a new tax will force people to sell a family home is just so wrong.
And, of course, the £1bn or whatever it is supposed to raise will go nowhere towards solving the problems of the NHS. That money will barely show as a blip - not even a 1% increase in spending.
All that pain for relatively little gain.0 -
Agreed. But think what that means for net immigration to the UK. Already the numbers coming in from Italy and Spain are turning into a flood. How many more can our housing stock, transport infrastructure and public services take? And at the same time the benefit of membership of the single market is getting smaller and smaller as the Eurozone wallows in the doldrums. Far better just to get access to it via an extensive free trade agreement, filter immigration to the best and brightest, and allow us to reduce trading barriers with the parts of the world that are actually growing. It amazes me how many smart people can't think this through.DavidL said:
By the 2015 election campaign UK unemployment will be half that of the Eurozone. It is a remarkable achievement and it frustrates those on the left mightily.Socrates said:
UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%BenM said:
Nope, it's the result of Bovine effluent emitter Osborne's failure on jobs, prospects and kids.Sean_F said:
The deficit, however, is "jobs, prospects, and kids".RochdalePioneers said:Loving the deficit obsession. What people are talking about on the doorstep is jobs and prospects and their kids. They aren't saying we should sacrifice all of that for "the deficit". And why is Osborne struggling with the deficit at the moment according to economists? Because tax receipts are nowhere near prediction. So get people working and they pay tax. Go after tax dodgers and they pay tax. Get the economy working for actual people as opposed to paper stats and people buy stuff, and in doing so they pay tax.
So the deficit obsession in the media is the death rattle of an establishment desperately trying to keep people focused on austerity, on cuts, on doing without. So that the people at the top don't have to
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?
So we hear and will hear endless stories about how these are not "real" jobs, that these are self employed monetising their hobbies for additional benefits and that some of this comes close to forced Labour. And there is some truth in these allegations. But a stable, consistent and credible macro-economic framework for the UK from Osborne and Alexander has made us job central of the EU. That really is an indisputable fact.0 -
LOLCharles said:
I thought you were all about focusing on your core business?Alanbrooke said:
Good to see you're catching up with us metal bashers Charles - who knows one day you might even start lending us some money ! :-)Charles said:
The answer, of course, is education and training. Not tractor stats "50% must attend university" but real learning and practical experience.Smarmeron said:@Financier
"So where are the jobs coming from when we are outpriced by a lot of the world and their technical expertise and education is romping past ours."
Global capitalism is the race to exploit more workers at ever cheaper rates.
We both know that, but only one of us is considering the consequences.
The UK does this well if you know where to look.
For instance, I met up with someone the other day to discuss industrial Lancashire and how we can help.
It was clear from that discussion that there are a lot of high-skill SMEs in the area using precision engineering to make very specialist parts for BAe, the largest industrial employer. Quite different - frankly - from the image I had of Blackburn & Burnley. They are only just beginning to integrate with the local university, so work to be done, but they've at least identified what they need to do.
The next step is to encourage the SMEs to get involved in community engagement as well (they are good employers but don't do that much outside the factory walls)
That's what we do - why would I lend to corporates at wafer thin margins when I can lend to people who don't need the money instead?
0 -
'Ian Martin on Labour: ‘I can’t remember a more spineless opposition’
The Thick of It writer has had a love-hate relationship with the party for years. After two days at conference in Manchester, watching its wonk-chic ‘muppets’ mixing austerity pancakes, he is close to despair'
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/23/ian-martin-labour-conference-thick-of-it0 -
-
They are going to fight in on the NHS - that is the only thing they are comfortable talking about.Neil said:
You got quite a good indication of the ground Labour hopes to fight the GE on this week. It's not their fault if it passed you by.TGOHF said:The big point about this week is the dog that didn't bark.
We heard for 4 years that Ed had his poker hand hidden and that policy review teams were coming up with great ideas that would be revealed at the final conference before the GE.
We had nothing this week - nada.
£2.5 billion to 'save' the NHS
That is the sum total of their ambition.
No mention of the fact that they wasted £10bn on the NHS IT disaster. No mention of the awful hash they have made of running the NHS in Wales.
This is not even a core vote strategy. It isn't even a strategy at all.0 -
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/what-kind-of-party-are-we/
"Ed Balls speech was made up of too much tough (though largely symbolic) medicine, Miliband lacked his usual passion and oratorical strength as well as a headline grabbing measure like last year’s price freeze to get tongues wagging.
So yes conference fell a little flat. Ultimately though that probably doesn’t matter all that much. But what the past few weeks and months have exposed is that Labour face some quite serious existential choices. Ones that have to be taken pretty soon and not ducked."0 -
Ages ago, I vividly recall Tony saying that he didn't need to worry about the WWC as they'd nowhere else to go. Back then it was largely true unless they went SWP or stayed on the sofa.
Now they do. Holding your own voters hostage isn't a strategy once there's somewhere else to go. Just look at Dagenham, they voted BNP instead.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, the risk for the two largest parties is that UKIP's a threat but it's never going to form the next government. So both blues and reds may vote tactically *for* UKIP to try and rob the other side of seats.
On the other hand, the Conservatives are deeply worried about being usurped, and Labour need to wake up and realise the white working class have somewhere else to go (it's not just Labour or staying at home anymore).
At the Conservative by-election held shortly after the European elections it was suggested Labour voters may've, for the first time, voted tactically for the Conservatives. With the General Election on the horizon such behaviour may be less likely.0 -
On topic: what are the ramifications of the likely scenario of UKIP winning by landslide in Clacton and Tories coming a very bad third behind Labour (in first) and UKIP (in 2nd) in Heywood and Middleton?0
-
The other thing to consider about chunks of the Eurozone with massive unemployment and two tier labour markets is what it's doing to the relationship prospects for under 35s. If you are unemployed for most of your 20s and still live at home into your 30s, you're not a very good marriage prospect, and you'll be unlikely to start a family. This will cause long term demographic issues with funding to even normal pension levels, let alone the super generous ones in some of these nations. The cuts will have to keep on coming.0
-
I'd suggest PR For Dummies as a good starting point. Honestly, Roger - it's painful to watch this with my professional hat on.
I assume you feel the same about some advertising from UKIP.Roger said:Plato
"What I find so perplexing here [and I speak as an ex-PR bod] is that Labour are completely confusing their emotional dislike of The Sun with their own strategic agenda."
That'll get them all scrabbling for their PR manuals0 -
Yeah, we had a real ball, but we took in that many Cathedrals, Abbeys, Castles and such during our 6 week tour, that it's all become a bit of a blur. I began naming and sorting our many photographs yesterday, and found myself doing a lot of head-scratching trying to figure out which place was which.Plato said:Spot on. Jon Snow looked personally betrayed. It was like he was facing his Great White Hope and discovered that he really didn't have the cojones to ever win for him.
PS I've just found a bunch of emails in my spam trap!! So sorry to have missed you down my way - did you enjoy Battle Abbey or Michelem Priory?Gadfly said:
Precisely! I believe his anger stemmed from the fact that by denying the deficit Miliband was leaving himself exposed to attack; thereby reducing out the prospect of a Labour government acquiring office next year..Scrapheap_as_was said:
I don't normally watch C4 news but had gained the impression he was viewed as a bit of a guardianista normally?
My main recollection of Battle Abbey was how overgrown the battlefield has become. I like to see trees as much as the next guy, but it was hard to visualise the battle being fought, amongst what has now largely become woodland.
I suspect that we could be in for a re-run next year, in order to mop up the places we missed. Hopefully I will get to learn of a better functioning email address for you before then, and we can have that coffee.
0 -
And in English? (with proper punctuation, perhaps?)volcanopete said:Cameron's old tutor really nails his and the rest of the stupid party's absurdity on the grounds of bifurcation,which like magic did not materialise during the periods of Ulster Unionists maintaining Ulster Votes On English matters.Bifurcation nails the Tories on England.The stupid party cannot seem to see this plays into Ukip's hands too on immigration and the EU.Banging on about Europe has inevitably led to banging on about England which can only lead to more banging on about Europe,like a bunch of rowdy England football fans-"Inger-land,Inger-Land,Inger-land".That approach will not appease bifurcation or a bifurcated absurdity.
0 -
I'm glad you've accepted the challenge to fund anything the Conservatives have done that has been as one-eyed and prejudicial as Labour's attacks on the Murdoch press. You may start by searching Tom Watson's output.SouthamObserver said:
OK.JosiasJessop said:
You ignore the orchestrated campaign led by Labour against the Sun and Murdoch, for the cardinal sin of backing the 'wrong' side. Show me *anything* the Conservatives have done that has been as one-eyed and prejudicial. Go on. Despite things like the McAlpine affair.SouthamObserver said:
No, we won't agree because we do not have the same view. I find your belief that Labour has been more hostile to the BBC that the Tories laugh out loud hilarious. We see and hear things differently Josias.
As for the BBC: re-read what I said. The Conservative's attacks have been low-level grumbling, and nowhere near the same level of childish insipid hatred as Labour have shown for the Murdoch press.
Labour is not about politics: it is about control.
Good luck with that.
(I know that's not what you meant, but you might find such a search illuminating.)0 -
Although it is worth remembering that a greater proportion of over-16s are employed in Spain than when the country entered the Eurozone in 1999.Socrates said:The other thing to consider about chunks of the Eurozone with massive unemployment and two tier labour markets is what it's doing to the relationship prospects for under 35s. If you are unemployed for most of your 20s and still live at home into your 30s, you're not a very good marriage prospect, and you'll be unlikely to start a family. This will cause long term demographic issues with funding to even normal pension levels, let alone the super generous ones in some of these nations. The cuts will have to keep on coming.
0 -
That clearly is a problem in several ways. Firstly it is making it much harder for our less able and very poorly educated youth to get on the jobs ladder. We are betraying these people for the second time in their short lives.Socrates said:
Agreed. But think what that means for net immigration to the UK. Already the numbers coming in from Italy and Spain are turning into a flood. How many more can our housing stock, transport infrastructure and public services take? And at the same time the benefit of membership of the single market is getting smaller and smaller as the Eurozone wallows in the doldrums. Far better just to get access to it via an extensive free trade agreement, filter immigration to the best and brightest, and allow us to reduce trading barriers with the parts of the world that are actually growing. It amazes me how many smart people can't think this through.DavidL said:
.Socrates said:
UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%BenM said:
Nope, it's the result of Bovine effluent emitter Osborne's failure on jobs, prospects and kids.Sean_F said:
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?
Secondly, as you point out, it is creating tremendous pressure on our services and infrastructure although as a general rule these immigrants who are young, motivated, trained and employed will feed more into the system than they take out.
Thirdly, it is has turned London in particular into a foreign country which in very large parts is not even a part of Britain. It is more like a trading state like Singapore. The resonance of the "Westminster" issue in Scotland showed the widely held perception decisions are not being made in our country anymore.
Fixing this, when pretty much everyone who studies a second language on the continent will study English, within the EU is incredibly difficult. Given our low levels of unemployment we will not get a lot of sympathy if we seek to complain that Spaniards, Italians and Frenchmen who would otherwise be sitting at home unemployed are coming here instead. The worship of the great god GDP is problematic. These immigrants boost our GDP, beyond question. But are we any better off as a result?0 -
It's not their fault, but it is their problem. They might just win with a core vote strategy, but they've got to make sure that at least some of the rest don't get passed by with their key message.Neil said:
You got quite a good indication of the ground Labour hopes to fight the GE on this week. It's not their fault if it passed you by.TGOHF said:The big point about this week is the dog that didn't bark.
We heard for 4 years that Ed had his poker hand hidden and that policy review teams were coming up with great ideas that would be revealed at the final conference before the GE.
We had nothing this week - nada.
I watched the speech - I was dreading the moment when the killer announcements came, that would seal the deal - and came their none, nada.0 -
On SMEs+universities, it was early stage but they are beginning to according to the person I was speaking to.Financier said:
@Foxinsoxuk.foxinsoxuk said:
I have a friend who works in a specialist engineering firm. They are increasingly reliant on a handful of senior skilled workers now into their fifties.Smarmeron said:@Charles
Don't try to buck the issue. Our companies have basically been doing as little training as possible. Since the glory days of Thatcherism, right through Phony Blairs years, they have looked to the cheapest option like good little Thatcherites. Now as those people are retiring, they are whining that there is a shortage of trained personnel for them to hire.
How much foresight would that have taken? The answer is none at all if they had opened their ears and listened.
You make an excellent point - many of today's graduates lack a wide technical base to support their speciality. Those coming from the BRIC countries as well as parts of Europe have received this training.
@Charles: You suggest SMEs interacting with their local university -ours does not even understand what we do and only offer advice for a fat fee. Other universities we have tried to work with are very precious over our IPR which they want to splash across publications.
Today, I need four radical thinking, very good scientists/engineers (for the SME consultancy with which I am working) which it looks like we will have to source outside the UK. Recently we have won contracts with global companies operating in Mexico, KSA, Malaysia and Slovakia. The main problem has been financing our cash flow to support these contracts. None of the banks are interested, indeed many will not countenance business in the BRIC countries, Middle East or South America. So we have had to resort to unusual financing. However the local office of the UKTI have been excellent in supplying local knowledge. GO really needs to sort out export and export-supporting finance.
On financing it sounds like it's growth capital you need , not bank financing, which might be causing th angst.0 -
Unemployment is clearly low given the difficult situation and it's reasonable to give some credit for that, but it's the flip side of the acceptance of real falls in income, which in turn is a primary reason why Osborne isn't making serious inroads on the deficit:DavidL said:
UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?
By the 2015 election campaign UK unemployment will be half that of the Eurozone. It is a remarkable achievement and it frustrates those on the left mightily.
So we hear and will hear endless stories about how these are not "real" jobs, that these are self employed monetising their hobbies for additional benefits and that some of this comes close to forced Labour. And there is some truth in these allegations. But a stable, consistent and credible macro-economic framework for the UK from Osborne and Alexander has made us job central of the EU. That really is an indisputable fact.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11117335/Just-how-big-is-Britains-debt-mountain.html
We have a recovery based on consumer spending and house purchases, and employers are not bothering to invest to the extent needed in the medium term. The consequence is a grim balance of payments and a completely unresolved deficit issue. Instead of messing about with populist nonsense like Help to Buy, the Government should have been making investment seriously worthwhile. Economically, quite apart from anything else, most of the last 5 years have been wasted.
0 -
1035 bbc2 Francis Fukuyama on HARDtalk0
-
I've asked Ben many times to tell us which country's finance minister he thinks HAS done better than Osborne. (Alanbrooke might also like to answer that question). Surely he must be able to point to somewhere in the world which is implementing Benenomics and therefore doing incredibly well.Socrates said:UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?
The answer, of course, is that there isn't one.0 -
Royal Mail share price has just dipped below £4.... still above the £3.30 IPO price but well down on the £6 high, who do retail investors send their complaints to if they bought more in the market because of this stuff?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/11/royal-mail-sale-lost-1bn-says-select-committee0 -
Excellent summary, Mr Oxford.
I was WTF re the hospital bed. It sent all the wrong messages to me. He looked like he was an in-patient/had a hospital pass - not someone *in-tune* with it.
A bizarre Jim Hacker mistake on the PR front. What were they thinking? If nothing else - it put Jon Snow in the role of *consultant to patient* who was in denial about how serious his condition was.
EdM just hand-waved him away and continued asserting that he was fine despite all the medical evidence to the contrary.oxfordsimon said:
[snip for space]Plato said:There was no mention of Predators vs Producers or other meaningless verbage. And at least the video feed didn't commit suicide during it this time.
That EdM just missed out immigration and the economy [accidentally on purpose] was just another variant on Ed Is Crap.
1 - The deficit was not mentioned in the PPB. Now this was put together well in advance but they could - and arguably should - have made a tweak to a voice-over or similar to add a reference to the economic situation. But they didn't.
2 - The woeful performance on Channel 4 news. Firstly it was a mistake to be interviewed sat next to a hospital bed - it made him look like a patient not a leader. But to forget to mention the deficit again was just awful. It allowed Snow to attack on a single theme for the rest of the interview - removing the ability for Miliband to talk about anything positive he might have wanted to say.
Add to this Burnham and his popular acclaim in the hall (which will hardly be noticed in the wider world, of course) and Cooper's appeal for unity (a clear sign that something is wrong in the party) and it really has not been a good couple of days for Miliband.
The pressure on him to perform in the Commons tomorrow is immense.
He has set out a contradictory message - he supports airstrikes in Iraq but is demanding more before he will support them in Syria. Given that the two situations are absolutely part of the same problem, he cannot both support and oppose the measures necessary to deal with IS.
The public see the need for action. But Miliband is on the fence - trying, clearly, to retain the support of his anti-war friends whilst at the same time trying not to look like someone who is never prepared to go to war.
I don't believe he is has the rhetorical skills to make this split case resonate with the country as it is inherently flawed and not in our national or international interests.
I shall be watching the debate with interest to see how he performs - particularly in the light of last year's appalling behaviour over Syria where he played politics with foreign affairs and arguably allowed greater suffering to be inflicted on the Syrian people.
A week is a long time in politics - this is one of Miliband's longest and worst.0 -
It is probably the best strategy that Labour can use in the circumstances, and there is a reasonable chance that it will give them a plurality of seats in the Commons.oxfordsimon said:This is not even a core vote strategy. It isn't even a strategy at all.
Of course, that's not to say that your criticism of its limits is not merited, but because Labour have failed to address the question of the deficit over the last four or so years they really have nowhere else to go.
What I find interesting is that - just as in 2010 - it looks like Labour are going to do as well as they can reasonably expect to, given their very poor strategic position. By contrast it looks like the Conservatives are going to fall short - again - because they are fixated on how they want people to react, rather than on how they actually are.
The polls show that the voters still blame Labour the most for the parlous state of the nation's finances. Labour have failed to find a coherent story to tell about their time in government and what went wrong with their handling of the economy. Why isn't 2015 a slam-dunk election for the Conservatives?
You can criticise Labour for not learning any lessons about the deficit - and I do frequently. At the same time, the Conservatives have failed to work out why they failed to win a majority in 2010.0 -
Absolutely. That is indeed the crucial lesson from this week.TGOHF said:The big point about this week is the dog that didn't bark.
We heard for 4 years that Ed had his poker hand hidden and that policy review teams were coming up with great ideas that would be revealed at the final conference before the GE.
We had nothing this week - nada.
0 -
Well the most serious is I'll lose my silly bets on Rev Oswald... who cares frankly after that biggy.BenM said:On topic: what are the ramifications of the likely scenario of UKIP winning by landslide in Clacton and Tories coming a very bad third behind Labour (in first) and UKIP (in 2nd) in Heywood and Middleton?
0 -
ROFLNickPalmer said:
Unemployment is clearly low given the difficult situation and it's reasonable to give some credit for that, but it's the flip side of the acceptance of real falls in income, which in turn is a primary reason why Osborne isn't making serious inroads on the deficit:DavidL said:
UK unemployment 2010: 8.1%
UK unemployment 2014: 6.2%
Eurozone unemployment 2010: 10.1%
Eurozone unemployment 2014: 11.5%
Presumably if you think Osborne is a failure you must think the EU is a complete disaster on jobs and prospects?
By the 2015 election campaign UK unemployment will be half that of the Eurozone. It is a remarkable achievement and it frustrates those on the left mightily.
So we hear and will hear endless stories about how these are not "real" jobs, that these are self employed monetising their hobbies for additional benefits and that some of this comes close to forced Labour. And there is some truth in these allegations. But a stable, consistent and credible macro-economic framework for the UK from Osborne and Alexander has made us job central of the EU. That really is an indisputable fact.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11117335/Just-how-big-is-Britains-debt-mountain.html
We have a recovery based on consumer spending and house purchases, and employers are not bothering to invest to the extent needed in the medium term. The consequence is a grim balance of payments and a completely unresolved deficit issue. Instead of messing about with populist nonsense like Help to Buy, the Government should have been making investment seriously worthwhile. Economically, quite apart from anything else, most of the last 5 years have been wasted.
since when did Labour ever give a rat's arse about the real economy ?
Crocodile tears.
( no animals were injured in the use of these idioms )0 -
I disagree with some of that. I can see the houses being sold outright, and instead of the family living in part of the house, it being subdivided into equalish-sized flats, just as rows of Georgian houses have in many city centre.oxfordsimon said:
At the lower end of the £2m+ range of properties, the homes are not actually that large - they just happen to be in locations where prices have risen spectacularly. Whilst there will be some scope for dividing them - that is only a temporary fix.
Homeowners will be faced with the costs of splitting a property and then, as is seemingly inevitable, the value of the larger part of the house will continue to rise and will eventually be caught in the Mansion Tax Trap.
What happens then? Do they further subdivide?
This is all about the politics of envy - and is not a realistic policy for raising a sustainable amount of money for the exchequer.
No detail of how assessment of value will be done. No mention of the costs of this - or of how the money will be collected. And a complete lack of detail on how the system will cope with those people who are property rich and cash poor. The idea that a new tax will force people to sell a family home is just so wrong.
And, of course, the £1bn or whatever it is supposed to raise will go nowhere towards solving the problems of the NHS. That money will barely show as a blip - not even a 1% increase in spending.
All that pain for relatively little gain.
The effect of this might be interesting, with people realising that the mansion tax buys an awful lot of commuting, and £1-2 million a very nice pile in the country. The resultant houses then get converted.
You are right about the problems of valuing and assessment. I just cannot see why all the main parties club together and back a full revaluation of our housing stock over a number of years, and the addition of several higher bands.0
