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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on the policy announcementsin Ed’s speech
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll on the policy announcementsin Ed’s speech
Note, on the tabs, I’ve condensed the questions asked down to a brief outline of the policy for formatting reasons, the actual questions asked by survation are more comprehensive.
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Oh ! This will damage Labour. Ha ha ha !!
And in the four years since we lost the last election, we have learnt hard, important lessons. They start with government having to live within its means. If people feel cynical now -- and they do -- think how much worse it would be if we made false promises.
"There won’t be money to spend after the next election. Britain will be spending £75 billion on the interest on our debt alone. That’s more than the entire budget for our schools.
It is no surprise that tax millionaire home owners polls well, a bit like freeze energy prices. How workable it is, how much it will actually raise etc, what are the knock on effects, well that is irrelevant to the modern politician. It isn't how well thought out a policy is, how well costed it is, no it is does it poll well.
When asking a focus group, we are going to take other people's money to fund stuff like NHS and jobs and give you a pay rise while you are at it, are you positive / negative / indifferent....
Is interesting though breaking up the banks hasn't polled well here, I bet it has in private polling / focus groups. Again the long term consequences of forcing energy company break ups and bank break up is far from clear, but I would have thought the populist bash the bankers lot would say yeahhh more nice friendly small banks.
1 Making housebuilding a priority & double first time buyers 71.6
Well, who could be against it, unless it is in my backyard? A better question would be: Do you believe Labour could fulfil Eds promise of Making housebuilding a priority & double first time buyers?
2 Mansion tax & other tax changes to fund the NHS 67.9
I refer to the previous comment. Who could be against better NHS funding. This is just a stupid way to do it. Hypothocate a small tax that will not raise enough to make an impression on NHS.
3 Minimum Wage Increase 43.6
It sounds good but is crap. A better question is do you think minimum wage should be raised by more than 3% pa between now and 2020.
4 Breaking up the Banks 51.2
Can we sell them first and get some money back? Or more to the point, lets just have banks that work with decent regulation.
5 Devoloving power to the regions 58.2
You could ask the other question: Do you want more regional politicians? If so do you want them to have more power Yes / No
6 Increased rights for the self employed 52.3
How about asking: Are you for or against increased rights for self employed?
7 Take carbon emmissions out of the economy by 2025 58.3
This question looks like: Would you like us to promise to do a specific thing you don't understand the meaning of by a long time in the future?
8 Increase apprenticeships 49.9
Well, yes, who could be against this? Extraordinary that 50.1% think it is a bad idea.
A bunch of questions that are pretty meaningless in real life.
The main challenge for Ed Miliband is to persuade the public that he'd meaningfully deliver his policies. He's doing dismally on that front.
Ed will be happy with these results, it's amazing what focus group driven policy can achieve if you ignore the deficit elephant hiding behind the sofa. - Surprised “Devolving power to the regions” is only opposed by 18%, - in 2004, the NE region opposed it by 78%. somehow I doubt things have changed that much in the interim.
37-31, not 38-31
Scotland: SNP 38, Labour 28.
Nothing particularly atypical in Labour numbers, Tory numbers in Midlands/Wales five points lower than their recent average.
Vote for , er, wait a minute, um, oh, ME!
But a bit difficult for the Conservatives to raise those issues without someone comparing their pledges in 2010 to what they've achieved.
Still someone will helpfully mention Cameron saying that he was "paying down Britain's debts" and then asking how much government debt has changed since 2010.
He seems to be quite an expert on the issue:
' Edward sat on the Children, Schools and Families Select Committee and the Joint Committee on Human Rights. He was also Chairman of the All-Party Parliamentary Groups on Adoption and Fostering, Looked-after Children and Care Leavers, as well as Vice Chairman for the Run-away and Missing Children Group.
Edward practised as a family law barrister in Cheshire courts, specialising in the cases of vulnerable children. '
https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/parliamentary-under-secretary-of-state-children-and-young-families
I wonder if he could explain why Rotherham children's services has not been placed into 'special measures' ?
Labour 2010 voters: 603
Labour Now voters: 665
Labour Now : Labour 2010 ratio: 1.103
Labour Now vote with ratio applied to 2010 GE vote share: 32.7%
They must be picking up loads of DNV or first timers to get up to 37%.
Do You Support Or Oppose The Following
Support :
Nigel Farage to undertake a nationwide pub crawl .... in Bulgaria - 87%
Free Gentleman's Wigs For Over 65s - 86% (96% in Bedford)
Nick Palmer to be deported to Switzerland - 72%
David Miliband is Leader of the Labour party - 71%
Every Town to have a Bullingdon Club - 63%
Alex Salmond to be exiled to Corby - 91%
Nick Clegg to be auctioned to provide a bursary at Sheffield University - 81%
George Galloway to purr for the Queen - 54%
Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister - 100%
1) Why hasn't Home Secretary Teresa May taken no action against a police force which collaberates with child rapists ?
2) How much did the locally well connected Communites Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening in Rotherham and why did she take no action ?
3) Why has Prime Minister David Cameron allowed at least three government departments to take no action ?
Cameron and Clegg are completely neglecting their duty in doing anything about it. They must either be doing it for political reasons (scared at helping UKIP) or because they think that allowing the public to find out what thousands of men of Muslim background have been doing is more important than bringing such crimes to justice. Either way, they are utterly craven and deserve to be booted out of office.
Has anyone noticed this 'Day of Reckoning' actually taking place ?
Still the plods announcing their 'Day of Reckoning' would have given any rapists plenty of warning to leave the country or otherwise disappear.
But I suppose that was just a coincidence.
I go to the BBC News website and read about how Ed has forgotten to mention the two top hot button issues in his conference speech, topped by a photo of him looking as though he's having a senior moment. Since I know from you lot that the BBC is a Trotskyist conspiracy... I come here... to find everyone's got their kid gloves on!
I wonder what are the odds of his being given the glass of whisky and the revolver before the next election? Hattie could hardly do worse...
Perhaps you both might consider toning it down before you make unsubstantiated and/or libellous allegations that will get Mike into severe trouble.
Wouldn't it be helpful if we knew someone who was say one of Clegg's constituents and was closely connected with a leading political blog and who was fond of tweeting ?
The 20-minute film, My Dangerous Loverboy, features an Asian man in his 20s grooming a younger white girl - lavishing her with gifts and getting her drunk before forcing her to have sex for money.
It was commissioned by child protection chiefs based in Yorkshire following reports of vulnerable girls being passed around groups of men for sex, according to a TV producer who worked on the project.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2763987/Educational-video-warning-Asian-grooming-gangs-schools-seven-years-ago-hardly-used-amid-fears-appearing-racist.html
Perhaps that political pressure was related to this?
While there is no suggestion that Mr Blunkett or his close advisers knew about the 2002 Rotherham report, sources said the Government was obsessed with keeping the Muslim community onside – even if it meant sidestepping serious criminality and extremism.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rotherham-child-sex-abuse-scandal-labour-home-office-to-be-probed-over-what-tony-blairs-government-knew--and-when-9701861.html
Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes·5h
When Labour is in the most pain, it is in the bar of the Midland hotel in Manchester
Further you don't know what appropriate actions politicians and others are taking behind the scenes and the primary organization for investigating these matters are the police and not MP's.
Perhaps you could point out anything Socrates or I have written which is factually incorrect.
There is this little story too, about a non-muslim fellow in Rotherham:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-28319557
The survey, carried out days after Scotland voted "No", found 3% wanted to Wales to be independent.
But there was support for the idea of more powers being devolved to the Welsh Assembly, with 49% in favour.
The survey found 12% wanted to see the assembly abolished.
Nigel Farage's party is on 14%, up seven points from the last BBC Wales poll in March.
Labour are down four points to 38%, with the Conservatives on 23% (down one), Plaid Cymru on 13% (down one) and the Liberal Democrats on 7% (down two).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29331475
This means we would like more powers but not tax-raising as it will cost us too much in our pockets.
My guess is that Osborne will top the announcement on the Minimum Wage by announcing a bigger increase to come into force about April.
I was watching "The Shipping News" last night, which contains the following priceless lines:
Quoyle (Kevin Costner): If he died when he was 12 years old, he can't have been my grandfather.
Auntie (Judi Dench): You don't know Newfoundlanders.
Public funds totalling £104,000 were paid into a fraudulent bank account and are "highly unlikely" to be recovered, a Welsh assembly committee has heard.
The money was paid over a four-month period by the Assembly Commission, which is the corporate body for the National Assembly for Wales.
Its public accounts committee was told police are investigating and an arrest had been made.
Commission member Peter Black told committee members on Tuesday that £71,000 was paid into the fraudulent account in during the 2013-14 financial year, and the remainder was paid this year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/29329289
It is clearly necessary to change the culture within police forces, and local government. That they should consider it acceptable to turn a blind eye to child exploitation on this scale is appalling.
There should also be some attempt at changing the culture within the pakistani community so that there is a social taboo against paedophilia where one appears to be lacking.
These are both things that require public action.
The report mentioned police/social services saying there was nothing they could do, because the girls consented. That they were making a lifestyle choice. That is clearly false, to consent they must be over 16.
In which case 'posh Tory' would normally be regarded as a compliment.
As I remember our friend Easterross regards himself as a 'Tory' rather than a 'Conservative'.
Ha, 'devoloving' sounds like English wives for English men.
Also, the carbon emission 'promise' is for 2030. Not sure if that's a small and understandable error by Mr. Eagles due to the 10 year plan (which this goes beyond...) or if that was the survey question.
I wonder about the apprenticeship promise (as many as university entrants). Labour always wanted 50% to go the university. Does this mean they want a 50/50 split, with everyone either going to university or into an apprenticeship?
As for grumpy, not at all but I can advise you that Mike would be more than "grumpy" to receive further correspondence from m'learned friends !!
PBers need to exercise a moment of caution before publishing their comments. PB isn't some cosy fireside chat between friends but a widely respected open forum that rightly draws extensive attention and accordingly is open to the full rigour of the libel laws.
Mike's wallet is on the line and we should all remember that.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·35 secs
This has been an unlucky conference for Miliband: Scottish referendum, English votes, forgotten passage. Harder to set agenda.
I'd also note your comments on Baroness Warsi are the sort of comment that get the lawyers panting to sharpen their quills.
Please be careful.
It'd be a question of whether the deportation is automatically void after these trials, and whether any further legal actions ongoing.
Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon·4 mins
Only the other week I met Ed, a struggling young politician from Primrose Hill
Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon·1 min
Ed was a hardworking guy, couple of kids, big fan of Aha and polo mints. But he was deeply worried about his future under his own leadership
Perhaps he will wish to avoid all pre-election debates as clearly he has no answers to eliminating the deficit and reducing the debt, immigration and child abuse. Does he hope that people (and his opponents) will have forgotten these matters by next May?
Just don't understand this idea of speaking without notes - Ed now spends the rest of today admitting he left out deficit. Pointless. We know he can do an hour without notes, he did it last year, now get on a delivery a proper speech with the material in it that you want to say.
I've read parts of the transcript and fell about laughing. What a paucity of policy and class war. It's student politics at heart. And an 8 month interview??!
God Preserve Us.
There's probably more support for independence for Surrey at present I'd think.
Anyone who loses a libel action becomes a publicly disgraced figure.
Still that's enough from me for today, we shall see if anything has changed before the fifth week since the report ends.
However, Shadow health minister Liz Kendall, “pointed out shadow chancellor Ed Balls had set out a range of Labour economic policies in his speech on Monday.”
Hmm, I remember something about capping child benefit, but I don’t recall Balls setting out a clear message on how Labour would tackle the deficit? – There appears to be a pattern forming, if you can’t win the argument on the future of the UK economy, ignore it, forget it, and pretend it isn’t the major issue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29335450
PB is at its absolute worst when discussing complex child abuse cases. Ill-informed people making I intemperate, unguarded and sometimes libellous comments about a desperately sensitive subject they know too little about.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing indeed.
Thanks to Nick and TSE for arranging.
Superb Survation for Ed and of course that YG made the night.
YG LAB 363 CON 239 LD 21 Other 27 EICIPM (7 months to go)
My last post still Saturday as am away with Mrs BJO
Presumably I may miss EV4EL crossover!!!
Geek.
Thanks to Nick Palmer and TSE for organising the meet up/discussion group in Manchester last night. An enjoyable couple of hours, even if I (uncharacteristically...) did more listening than talking!
Wales - Labour's in power. The NHS isn't great, by all accounts. Miliband banging on about it might harm as much as help Welsh Labour.
Scotland - my elite ninja spy network [I read it on the internet] tell me a significant number of formerly Labour Scottish voters, after the No vote, have permanently turned their backs on Scottish Labour. They reckon SNP gains are likely. Now, I know we heard that last time. But last time the SNP membership didn't rise by about 50% in six and a half minutes.
England - risk of being portrayed as anti-English (or at least not very well-informed about English history... who mentions a strike and not Agincourt?). A more definite problem is UKIP. Yes, the Conservatives are at risk in areas of the south (and the east), but Labour aren't immune to shedding votes and possibly the odd seat.
Her only job as she was pushing the trolley down the aisle was to give everyone lunch.
And she couldn't even manage that.
Of course, if a similar poll showed Cameron's policies to be popular, you would be enthusiastically reminding us of it at every opportunity. Until we had lost the will to live.
Ed's crime this morning in PB Toryland seems to be delivering a suite of policies that are popular.
Funny old world.
"It will have all the usual bits in it when this happens - big LAB London number, big Labour AB number and big Lib-Lab switchers."
Actually none of these turned out to be right. What is unusual is a very low Lab->UKIP conversion (down to 6% of the 2010 Lab vote), which is one of the objectives of the conference - we're trying to bring back the "nobody cares about us, we might as well vote UKIP" vote, which is at least as big as the anti-immigration UKIP vote and much softer. But it's a subsample of a conference week poll, so who knows really.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9e4htosja1/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230914.pdf
That is in the spirit of the Scottish devolution settlement and it de-politicises it nationally.
In England, go down to something like the existing county level.
Let London set it's own property tax. Let Essex, Leicestershire, Cumbria, Gloucestershire, Cornwall etc do exactly the same.
Extra Votes 4 Ed's Labour?
It always seemed to me that the progressives were no more than the old fashioned white, male old school tie type bullies they hated and want to destroy, in different clothing. Both had those they would defend beyond reason and those they would attack without any
It won't be the Super rich in the main they employ clever people to avoid extra taxes, that won't change whoever wins in May.
If Labour win NI is sure to go up on the premise of extra funding for NHS, they won't tell you this until after the election, a quick budget will be lined up to hike fuel duty, cigs etc and if things get bad another raid on pensions can't be ruled out. Local Councils will get carte blanche again to whack up the Council Tax.
Make no mistake most of us will be hit in the pocket, how clear the Tories are in getting that message across may be the difference between Ed or no Ed at no10. At the moment I slightly favour he may sneak in with around a third of the votes cast.
Add to all that there will be huge pressure on Balls from the major Unions for pay rises for Public Sector workers, that will be an interesting battle if Labour are in charge. Would Balls and Milliband hold firm under that pressure?