politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.
INDEPENDENT: Obama's Damascene conversion #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/i3JnDAhrmH — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014
Comments
-
Northern Editor of The Guardian
Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
0 -
@FraserNelson: The Scottish Catholic bishops and the Nationalists: a scandal is coming to light says Damian Thompson - http://t.co/erJD3XmfYB0
-
HYUFD said:
BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
I don't think it's 'hang your head in shame' worthy. He's not meant to publicize the comment and it's not an overheard insult, so at worst he's a bit silly.
Also, I know he wasn't 'going anywhere', but could Salmond at least stop throwing criticisms around every day for a while? He's still doing that thing where everything someone else does, or hints at the possibility they might do or say, must be some extreme issue.0 -
Brilliant! Thanks You Gov.
In case I'm in hiding after we lose to Notts Forest tomorrow, please can someone post this...adding the required number tomorrow night.
"Labour's lead slumps xx% in first poll after Miliband's make or break speech"
Thanks and to You Gov too....0 -
Liverpool once again unable to close a game down. We're back to where we were 2-3 years ago, last year is looking like a blip, not something we have been able to build on. Damn it. I'm taking an early night.
Night all.0 -
Reminds me of a scene from the movie Murder on the Orient Express:Scott_P said:@FraserNelson: The Scottish Catholic bishops and the Nationalists: a scandal is coming to light says Damian Thompson - http://t.co/erJD3XmfYB
"Is it about sex?"
"No it's about 10:30"0 -
Parties almost always get a poll bounce from conference week unless it is absolutely dire, so all poll ratings should be taken with a pinch of salt until the final conference is over0
-
Scrapheap Indeed, this big bounce tonight could easily fall back a bit tomorrow, and given Miliband's speech did not even lead the news and got less than raving reviews, it may well do so0
-
There is one thing needing to bus people in, it's another advertising it on Twitter. Who the hell is running the campaign up there?isam said:Northern Editor of The Guardian
Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
https://twitter.com/JWinterbourne/status/514457437819396097/photo/10 -
I agree, though unfortunately for some (LD?), Clacton is the day after the end of the last conference.HYUFD said:Parties almost always get a poll bounce from conference week unless it is absolutely dire, so all poll ratings should be taken with a pinch of salt until the final conference is over
0 -
Nonsense. Enormously disrespectful of Cameron to express the Queen's views to a third party, especially in such tacky terms. It puts her in a difficult position.kle4 said:HYUFD said:
BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
I don't think it's 'hang your head in shame' worthy. He's not meant to publicize the comment and it's not an overheard insult, so at worst he's a bit silly.
Also, I know he wasn't 'going anywhere', but could Salmond at least stop throwing criticisms around every day for a while? He's still doing that thing where everything someone else does, or hints at the possibility they might do or say, must be some extreme issue.0 -
kle4 I think Alex is still taking the chance his status as FM gives him to make statements which get noticed before he leaves Holyrood on Jockforce 1 to his retirement in the Highlands0
-
You not staying up for the 24 penalties (and still going...)kle4 said:Liverpool once again unable to close a game down. We're back to where we were 2-3 years ago, last year is looking like a blip, not something we have been able to build on. Damn it. I'm taking an early night.
Night all.0 -
The one the local party doesn't like very much.compouter2 said:
There is one thing needing to bus people in, it's another advertising it on Twitter. Who the hell is running the campaign up there?isam said:Northern Editor of The Guardian
Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
https://twitter.com/JWinterbourne/status/514457437819396097/photo/10 -
This could be a Gordon bou to star at the Peoples Climate Change March in NYC.Taken with the breathtaking news of Rockefelle's on oil divestment,Ed's got the zeitgeist.The Tories don't have the necessary vibe on this at all.Momentous times.0
-
A Gordon bounce,after he saved the union,he went on to saving the planet.0
-
Speedy Indeed, though the Tories will be glad to have got their conference out the way the week before0
-
Who would have believed you 12 months ago if you'd told them there were to be two by elections on the same day in October 2014 and the best price on the ukip double was less than 10/3?0
-
Just caught it! Had to finish my cuppa before turning in.Lennon said:
You not staying up for the 24 penalties (and still going...)kle4 said:Liverpool once again unable to close a game down. We're back to where we were 2-3 years ago, last year is looking like a blip, not something we have been able to build on. Damn it. I'm taking an early night.
Night all.
0 -
So it turns out that the Queen and the PM were both relieved that the Union stayed together.
In other news bears are Catholic, and the Pope .... er, is that right?
0 -
Well if they do lose the election I hope the local party publically blame the Rochdale MP and his friends who are running the campaign. Told this afternoon that only 15 people turned up at the official launch yesterday and that included the three MPS who turned up. My friend spent 20 minutes there yesterday, delivering leaflets and told me there are dozens of bags of leaflets in the office still waiting to be delivered. She says it is an absolute mess.Speedy said:
The one the local party doesn't like very much.compouter2 said:
There is one thing needing to bus people in, it's another advertising it on Twitter. Who the hell is running the campaign up there?isam said:Northern Editor of The Guardian
Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
https://twitter.com/JWinterbourne/status/514457437819396097/photo/10 -
Well, is that it? This was the big day, right, when Ed was finally going to confound his critics and unveil all those brilliant new policies, which would not only sweep him into power but, more importantly, convince Labour supporters that their blind faith wasn't misplaced.
What we got was: Nothing. Not a sausage, not an idea, not a coherent thought, not even a sound-bite.
It's the weakest opposition platform, presented by the weakest leader, with the most feeble shadow cabinet, which I have seen in the half-century I've been following politics.
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.0 -
.HYUFD said:Scrapheap Indeed, this big bounce tonight could easily fall back a bit tomorrow, and given Miliband's speech did not even lead the news and got less than raving reviews, it may well do so
I presume it will but EVv4EL tightening is as expected not happening0 -
None about the 2 by-elections on the same day, on UKIP to win a by-election it was always about the right seat, so the odds were not as good as that 10/3.isam said:Who would have believed you 12 months ago if you'd told them there were to be two by elections on the same day in October 2014 and the best price on the ukip double was less than 10/3?
0 -
It's 10/3 they win bothSpeedy said:
None about the 2 by-elections on the same day, on UKIP to win a by-election it was always about the right seat, so the odds were not as good as that 10/3.isam said:Who would have believed you 12 months ago if you'd told them there were to be two by elections on the same day in October 2014 and the best price on the ukip double was less than 10/3?
0 -
What does that say about the Tories who are doing worse than Labour?Richard_Nabavi said:Well, is that it? This was the big day, right, when Ed was finally going to confound his critics and unveil all those brilliant new policies, which would not only sweep him into power but, more importantly, convince Labour supporters that their blind faith wasn't misplaced.
What we got was: Nothing. Not a sausage, not an idea, not a coherent thought, not even a sound-bite.
It's the weakest opposition platform, presented by the weakest leader, with the most feeble shadow cabinet, which I have seen in the half-century I've been following politics.
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.0 -
Well the Guardian of all papers have frisked what few policies Ed has revealed and basically calls bulls#t on pretty much all but min wage at £8 by 2020 (which is hardly that ambiguous if economy recovers over next 5-6 years).
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/23/how-feasible-ed-milibands-pledges-labour-apprenticeships-housings-nhs-wages
What is interesting, the big one that I think most people agree on across the board, getting more homes built. These kind of claims of loads of new homes, Gordo announced it, current government have said something and now Labour basically can't fill in any blanks even 12 months after announcing wanting to build 200k homes a year.
It is clear no party is proposing the state building, but also neither seems to really have an idea how to boost it other than fingers crossed and hope the market drives it.0 -
FPT, I wondered how long it would take for bracket creep to render 2 million pounds into a "middle class tax" rather than a "mansion tax"? Judging from past experience of the Stamp Duty/SDLT threshold, a couple of decades, maybe less... aside from the odd brief "stimulus" break, the threshold rate seems to have spent years standing still while average house prices inflated past it (into upper bands where there was more jigging about of the rates).
Previous thresholds with UK and London average prices from the Nationwide Prices Data were:
£30k from 1984 (UK 33k/London 46k) to 1993 (UK 51k/London 68k)
£60k from 1993 (51k/68k) to 2005 (157k/242k)
£120k from 2005 (157k/242k) to 2006 (172k/269k)
and £125k from 2006 (172k/269k) onwards (present is approx 186k/400k)
Conclusion: bracket creep hurts, particularly if thresholds aren't uprated with inflation. In 1984 the threshold was set just under the average UK house price (about 92% of it) although higher London prices meant it was only 65% of the average price there. Right now it's about 67% of the average UK price, but only 31% of London's. This isn't actually the worst it's been; before the 2005 changes, the threshold was just 38% of the average UK house price and 25% of the average London price. It's clear that something that was mostly a "wealthy person's tax" in 1984 had widened its net substantially by then.
(Figures a wee bit iffy since for convenience I used Q4 all the way through, rather than the relevant quarter, and used Q2 for 2014. Also, other house price indices are available...and apologies for yellow box fans that I have yet to master such HTML intricacies.)0 -
Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
0 -
People can say what they like in private conversations - it's stupid of him to have been overheard for the reasons you give, but not 'hang your head in shame' worthy, which I would reserve for it he had intentionally said something to put her in a difficult position.Monksfield said:
Nonsense. Enormously disrespectful of Cameron to express the Queen's views to a third party, especially in such tacky terms. It puts her in a difficult position.kle4 said:HYUFD said:
BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
I don't think it's 'hang your head in shame' worthy. He's not meant to publicize the comment and it's not an overheard insult, so at worst he's a bit silly.
Also, I know he wasn't 'going anywhere', but could Salmond at least stop throwing criticisms around every day for a while? He's still doing that thing where everything someone else does, or hints at the possibility they might do or say, must be some extreme issue.0 -
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...0 -
All the way from Dundee to Manchester to drink tinnies and talk politics in a flat?NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Fuck me0 -
Alongside its strikes on the ISIS heartland, officials said US warplanes hit a previously unknown group of Al-Qaeda militants known as the Khorosan Group.
The group of seasoned terrorists planned to 'imminently' attack a US airliner or other target using a bomb without any metal parts, toothpaste tubes and clothes dipped in explosives, an unnamed US official told CNN.0 -
Worse than IDS?Richard_Nabavi said:Well, is that it? This was the big day, right, when Ed was finally going to confound his critics and unveil all those brilliant new policies, which would not only sweep him into power but, more importantly, convince Labour supporters that their blind faith wasn't misplaced.
What we got was: Nothing. Not a sausage, not an idea, not a coherent thought, not even a sound-bite.
It's the weakest opposition platform, presented by the weakest leader, with the most feeble shadow cabinet, which I have seen in the half-century I've been following politics.
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.
0 -
UKIP winning a by election relies on a defector retaining his seat.Speedy said:
None about the 2 by-elections on the same day, on UKIP to win a by-election it was always about the right seat, so the odds were not as good as that 10/3.isam said:Who would have believed you 12 months ago if you'd told them there were to be two by elections on the same day in October 2014 and the best price on the ukip double was less than 10/3?
0 -
Tomorrow's front pages are better for Ed than today's
He's not on most of them0 -
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...0 -
YesGIN1138 said:Worse than IDS?
0 -
They are going to win Clacton (that is the sure bet), so the odds should reflect Heywood.isam said:
It's 10/3 they win bothSpeedy said:
None about the 2 by-elections on the same day, on UKIP to win a by-election it was always about the right seat, so the odds were not as good as that 10/3.isam said:Who would have believed you 12 months ago if you'd told them there were to be two by elections on the same day in October 2014 and the best price on the ukip double was less than 10/3?
I don't think UKIP is going to win Heywood, they won't even come close.
But assuming Labour doesn't get a single extra vote from last time, only then will UKIP have a small chance.
Realistically though it's a Labour safe seat, the odds should be 100 to 1 not 10/3.0 -
A quick post about ISIS.
-Telegraph recently: 49 Turkish hostages released by ISIS totally unscathed http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11110558/Islamic-State-releases-49-Turkish-hostages-seized-in-northern-Iraq.html
'reasons behind release unclear'
-Going a bit further back, 46 Indian nurses, freed by ISIS without so much as a scratch http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/indian-nurses-reach-mosul-kerala-cm-says-they-are-safe/article1-1236585.aspx
'External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was in constant touch with her counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE to leverage their influence over the Sunni insurgents to seek the release of Indians being held captive, sources said.'
So Turkey, incidentally the main conduit for these savages to get into Syria (still wide open, not a word uttered by us or the US), gets its people back nice and safe, avoiding tough questions at home on their unpopular policy on this issue. India gets in touch with KSA, Qatar and the UAE -to use THEIR INFLUENCE in ISIS, and the nurses get away untouched. Notice these same countries are the ones joining the US on this new bombing campaign AGAINST ISIS. No prizes for guessing how many actual ISIS targets they'll hit. What they will do is use their presence in the air as a virtual (and totally illegal) no fly zone over Syria to prevent Assad using air power to combat the floods of new militants now being trained in KSA.
Meanwhile, no quiet diplomacy for our hostages -we need to be mentally bludgeoned into sanctioning another vastly expensive bombing campaign, therefore we get treated to these ridiculous orange pyjama videos complete with thuddingly obvious reverse psychology. 'Don't bomb ISIS (we mean do)'. etc. etc.
This is about SYRIA. The beheaders are OUR people (at least, the yanks and the Wahhabi Arab's). Has anyone got a satisfactory reason as to why the US is so obsessed with removing one Arab dictator when it gets on so well with so many who are far worse? This seems as good as any to me: http://nsnbc.me/2014/09/11/us-yet-trying-create-oil-gas-collapse-russia/
*cue 'conspiraloon' comments*0 -
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton amogst activists and voters alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign, as he and his friends are running it, and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
0 -
Two things:Speedy said:What does that say about the Tories who are doing worse than Labour?
1) As many people predicted before 2010, this an incredibly difficult time to be in government and still get re-elected.
2) Self-indulgent disunity on the right inevitably has its cost.
The second of these is the key one. If, God forbid, we do end up with a Miliband government, it is a 100% certainty that it will both a disaster and very unpopular. That doesn't, however, mean that Labour wouldn't be re-elected in the next election - the chances are that it would, as the right descends into in-fighting.0 -
As I suspected this morning, US bombing Syria is good for Ed - less attention.0
-
Purrr.......NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...0 -
It wouldn't surprise me if the turnout for GE2015 is the lowest on record.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.0 -
So the party Cameron leads is doing worse that the party lead by someone worse that IDS.Richard_Nabavi said:
YesGIN1138 said:Worse than IDS?
0 -
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!0 -
That seems like a fairly fundamental problem with the voting system - you should be able to have factions openly disagreeing without giving a (hypothetical) disastrous and unpopular leader a clear run.Richard_Nabavi said:
2) Self-indulgent disunity on the right inevitably has its cost.
The second of these is the key one. If, God forbid, we do end up with a Miliband government, it is a 100% certainty that it will both a disaster and very unpopular. That doesn't, however, mean that Labour wouldn't be re-elected in the next election - the chances are that it would, as the right descends into in-fighting.0 -
Ed having the balls (not that one) to come out against bombing Syria (I don't think Cameron will risk another vote) would virtually seal the next election for him. It won't be easy for Cameron to argue about fiscal prudence when he's raining million pound missiles down on foreign climbs.Verulamius said:As I suspected this morning, US bombing Syria is good for Ed - less attention.
0 -
This labour lady is er a robot0
-
No, how on earth do you figure that out? One of the most remarkable things about the current polling is that the Conservative vote share has fallen so little.Speedy said:So the party Cameron leads is doing worse that the party lead by someone worse that IDS.
In any case I was talking about the substance of the offering, not the polling. As any fule no, Ed has been given a free boost of LibDems horrified at the fact that the party they voted for has actually done what it said it would do. They'll of course be equally horrified if and when they discover that Ed Miliband can't avoid difficult decisions either.0 -
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!0 -
So you mean that times are bad and the Tory party is not up to the job.Richard_Nabavi said:
Two things:Speedy said:What does that say about the Tories who are doing worse than Labour?
1) As many people predicted before 2010, this an incredibly difficult time to be in government and still get re-elected.
2) Self-indulgent disunity on the right inevitably has its cost.
The second of these is the key one. If, God forbid, we do end up with a Miliband government, it is a 100% certainty that it will both a disaster and very unpopular. That doesn't, however, mean that Labour wouldn't be re-elected in the next election - the chances are that it would, as the right descends into in-fighting.0 -
All bets are off. I am down in London and have just been out for dinner with my Mum. She's 71 and has been Labour for 50 years, her Dad was a shop steward, it's in our DNA. She's voting UKIP next year - "We've got to make a stand." Labour is buggered. I am shocked, but also not surprised.0
-
On the contrary, it's a feature, not a bug. It discourages facile protests and division before an election, and encourages actually focusing on the real choices.edmundintokyo said:That seems like a fairly fundamental problem with the voting system - you should be able to have factions openly disagreeing without giving a (hypothetical) disastrous and unpopular leader a clear run.
Of course it doesn't always work!0 -
A stand on what specifically?SouthamObserver said:All bets are off. I am down in London and have just been out for dinner with my Mum. She's 71 and has been Labour for 50 years, her Dad was a shop steward, it's in our DNA. She's voting UKIP next year - "We've got to make a stand." Labour is buggered. I am shocked, but also not surprised.
0 -
Good for your Mum. More joy in heaven over one sinner that repenteth and all that.SouthamObserver said:All bets are off. I am down in London and have just been out for dinner with my Mum. She's 71 and has been Labour for 50 years, her Dad was a shop steward, it's in our DNA. She's voting UKIP next year - "We've got to make a stand." Labour is buggered. I am shocked, but also not surprised.
0 -
Percentage of population that voted Labour or Tory since 1979Pong said:
It wouldn't surprise me if the turnout for GE2015 is the lowest on record.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.
1979 61%
1983 60%
1987 55%
1992 59%
1997 53%
2001 43%
2005 41%
2010 42%
Cue for Morrissey song...0 -
It was good fun actually and it is my hobby so why not. Excellent to put faces to some of the names and many thanks to Nick for his hospitality.isam said:
All the way from Dundee to Manchester to drink tinnies and talk politics in a flat?NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Fuck me0 -
It's not going to if people like you have not got the nerve to release it, or perhaps it isn't true and is a smear against someone who dares to speak out against the Labour machine.compouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
If it is true I cannot imagine the local party allowing him to run the campaign0 -
You are saying people are happy and content, and not angry? That is what usually drives low turnout.Pong said:
It wouldn't surprise me if the turnout for GE2015 is the lowest on record.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.
0 -
A six percent swing small? OK if ,God forbid, the Tories had fallen by a lot you would be behind UKIP, now you are just at John Major levels.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, how on earth do you figure that out? One of the most remarkable things about the current polling is that the Conservative vote share has fallen so little.Speedy said:So the party Cameron leads is doing worse that the party lead by someone worse that IDS.
In any case I was talking about the substance of the offering, not the polling. As any fule no, Ed has been given a free boost of LibDems horrified at the fact that the party they voted for has actually done what it said it would do. They'll of course be equally horrified if and when they discover that Ed Miliband can't avoid difficult decisions either.0 -
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate himcompouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!0 -
Lol. But it seems like there's some legitimate disagreement on the right at the moment that the voters should be able to weigh in on - it's not all pettiness and protest voting.Richard_Nabavi said:
On the contrary, it's a feature, not a bug. It discourages facile protests and division before an election, and encourages actually focusing on the real choices.edmundintokyo said:That seems like a fairly fundamental problem with the voting system - you should be able to have factions openly disagreeing without giving a (hypothetical) disastrous and unpopular leader a clear run.
Of course it doesn't always work!0 -
Survation Question:
"Granting the same employment rights for the many self-employed people in the UK that permanent employees have"
What is meant by this?
How can you give yourself a right?
How are you going to sue yourself if it isn't honoured?0 -
Calm down dear!!Speedy said:A six percent swing small? OK if ,God forbid, the Tories had fallen by a lot you would be behind UKIP, now you are just at John Major levels.
It's just one poll that is virtually identical to one nine days ago from YG.
It will have all the usual bits in it when this happens - big LAB London number, big Labour AB number and big Lib-Lab switchers.
0 -
It's incredible, I cannot wait to hear the detail.MikeL said:Survation Question:
"Granting the same employment rights for the many self-employed people in the UK that permanent employees have"
What is meant by this?
How can you give yourself a right?
How are you going to sue yourself if it isn't honoured?0 -
Did he do something to Dobbin that is (or could be) subject to the criminal code?compouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!0 -
It will be very interesting to see what happens to that. Part of the increase in the non Labour+Tory vote has of course been due to the Nats, and I don't think that will change much (in fact the SNP will probably increase their vote share over 2010). However, the bulk of it has previously been due to the LibDems. Without the UKIP surge, that would probably have gone into reverse - I was expecting the combined Lab + Con total to be quite a bit larger this time round.isam said:Percentage of population that voted Labour or Tory since 1979
1979 61%
1983 60%
1987 55%
1992 59%
1997 53%
2001 43%
2005 41%
2010 42%..
We can now be certain that at least some of the slack will be taken up by UKIP. Enough to mean Lab+Con is less than 2010? Dunno, but at a guess I'd think not.0 -
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.Scrapheap_as_was said:
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate himcompouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
0 -
@compouter2
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.0 -
It is not my local party,I have friends who live near there, who say it is an open secret.With regards him not running the campaign....https://twitter.com/SimonDanczuk/status/513680801696075776/photo/1nigel4england said:
It's not going to if people like you have not got the nerve to release it, or perhaps it isn't true and is a smear against someone who dares to speak out against the Labour machine.compouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
If it is true I cannot imagine the local party allowing him to run the campaign0 -
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate him
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.
And yet he is allowed to run the campaign? How was that allowed to happen?0 -
In your opinion are the local labour inclined voters likely to "lend" UKIP their vote to spite Danczuk and the selection stitch up?compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton amogst activists and voters alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign, as he and his friends are running it, and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
0 -
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.nigel4england said:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate him
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.
And yet he is allowed to run the campaign? How was that allowed to happen?
Feck knows?0 -
According to my friend yes,in large amounts.Gaius said:
In your opinion are the local labour inclined voters likely to "lend" UKIP their vote to spite Danczuk and the selection stitch up?compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton amogst activists and voters alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign, as he and his friends are running it, and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...0 -
That is just the public attacks and that is just one, he has deleted quite a few others since his death. I was told he also attacked him on the local news quite a few times.Speedy said:@compouter2
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.0 -
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate him
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.
Ever thought this might be a smear by people with an agenda? It's very convenient that sadly Dobbin is unable to substantiate the claims made.
Personally I don't see how he is running the campaign if what you are saying is true.
NPXMP claims to have spoken to Labour people at Heywood, has he heard any of this stuff?0 -
So Danzuck ,according to some in the local Labour party, did do something to Dobbin that warranted the police to step in.compouter2 said:
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.Scrapheap_as_was said:
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate himcompouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
Since no one outside of the local Labour party knows, whatever it was could possibly have occurred without many witnesses (or any), perhaps that is one of the reasons he didn't go to the police.0 -
"NPXMP claims to have spoken to Labour people at Heywood, has he heard any of this stuff?"
Heard anything Nick?0 -
Syria: Strikes this evening will have a greater focus on Aleppo countryside and Deir Ezzor. Not surprisingly there are strong concentrations of IS forces in both areas.
Interestingly Jabhat Al Nusra fighters, an al Qaeda associate but currently fighting ISIS appeared to have been hit in a number of areas in last nights first range of strikes.0 -
-
I haven't got the foggiest, I only know what quite a few people have now confirmed. Either way it has upset the local members enough to boycott the campaign. As I said earlier I am amazed it hasn't come out, especially in the right wing press.Speedy said:
So Danzuck ,according to some in the local Labour party, did do something to Dobbin that warranted the police to step in.compouter2 said:
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.Scrapheap_as_was said:
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate himcompouter2 said:
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.nigel4england said:
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.compouter2 said:
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.nigel4england said:
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?compouter2 said:
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.NickPalmer said:Details of the post-speech Survation poll:
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
..
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
Since no one outside of the local Labour party knows, whatever it was could possibly have occurred without many witnesses (or any), perhaps that is one of the reasons he didn't go to the police.0 -
OK I got the idea what nasty brawl happened, Danczuk didn't just attack Dobbin in public.compouter2 said:
That is just the public attacks and that is just one, he has deleted quite a few others since his death. I was told he also attacked him on the local news quite a few times.Speedy said:@compouter2
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.0 -
Would that include Al Nusra in the Golan Heights?Y0kel said:Syria: Strikes this evening will have a greater focus on Aleppo countryside and Deir Ezzor. Not surprisingly there are strong concentrations of IS forces in both areas.
Interestingly Jabhat Al Nusra fighters, an al Qaeda associate but currently fighting ISIS appeared to have been hit in a number of areas in last nights first range of strikes.0 -
If you have an idea then please tell us, because to me it looks like a smear campaign against someone not popular with LeftiesSpeedy said:
OK I got the idea what nasty brawl happened, Danczuk didn't just attack Dobbin in public.compouter2 said:
That is just the public attacks and that is just one, he has deleted quite a few others since his death. I was told he also attacked him on the local news quite a few times.Speedy said:@compouter2
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.0 -
@compouter2
' Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting.'
Just the usual smearing for anyone that steps out of line,Labour are good at that.0 -
:ORichard_Nabavi said:
YesGIN1138 said:Worse than IDS?
0 -
I don't give a flying, to be honest. I just hope Labour win the seat, which now looks highly unlikely. I actually only reported it a few nights ago so some on here could get a good price on UKIP before it fell, which it has.john_zims said:@compouter2
' Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting.'
Just the usual smearing for anyone that steps out of line,Labour are good at that.0 -
A family friend I was talking to earlier this year simultaneously said that Tony Benn was one of her heroes, and that she was planning to vote UKIP.SouthamObserver said:All bets are off. I am down in London and have just been out for dinner with my Mum. She's 71 and has been Labour for 50 years, her Dad was a shop steward, it's in our DNA. She's voting UKIP next year - "We've got to make a stand." Labour is buggered. I am shocked, but also not surprised.
Labour have been completely underestimating how unhappy their so-called "core vote" are with them, and they continue to underestimate it with all their talk this week of austerity and "Middle England".0 -
Oh dear, the YeSNP want to completely retreat from reality...
@PeteWishart: Is citizen journalism grown & developed through the indyref now replacing the MSM as the main means of reporting public life in Scotland?0 -
Look at how this conversation has evolved and you will also get the idea of what happened.nigel4england said:
If you have an idea then please tell us, because to me it looks like a smear campaign against someone not popular with LeftiesSpeedy said:
OK I got the idea what nasty brawl happened, Danczuk didn't just attack Dobbin in public.compouter2 said:
That is just the public attacks and that is just one, he has deleted quite a few others since his death. I was told he also attacked him on the local news quite a few times.Speedy said:@compouter2
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.
Get the clues from the posts, also ask compouter2 if he knows when it happened, that might help you.
UKIP dodged the bullet again.0 -
Im aware of their units being hit in about 4 areas largely in the Aleppo and Idlib regions. Golan not one Im aware of admittedly. IS controlled town Al Bab in rural Aleppo appears to be under particularly notable attacks just about now.Speedy said:
Would that include Al Nusra in the Golan Heights?Y0kel said:Syria: Strikes this evening will have a greater focus on Aleppo countryside and Deir Ezzor. Not surprisingly there are strong concentrations of IS forces in both areas.
Interestingly Jabhat Al Nusra fighters, an al Qaeda associate but currently fighting ISIS appeared to have been hit in a number of areas in last nights first range of strikes.
In fact now I think of, not much news about US or other strikes in the Golan.
0 -
Nothing.nigel4england said:In return for what exactly?
It's a con.
Like Labour's minimum wage of £8 an hour by 2020, or the Lib Dems tax free allowance of £12,500 by 2020. Things that will happen anyway due to inflation.
Equal rights for the self employed probably equals equal taxes. Cynical, I know.
0 -
Speedy, just PM'd you.Speedy said:
Look at how this conversation has evolved and you will also get the idea of what happened.nigel4england said:
If you have an idea then please tell us, because to me it looks like a smear campaign against someone not popular with LeftiesSpeedy said:
OK I got the idea what nasty brawl happened, Danczuk didn't just attack Dobbin in public.compouter2 said:
That is just the public attacks and that is just one, he has deleted quite a few others since his death. I was told he also attacked him on the local news quite a few times.Speedy said:@compouter2
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.
Get the clues from the posts, also ask compouter2 if he knows when it happened, that might help you.
UKIP dodged the bullet again.0 -
No, neither of the people I talked to (both of whom were involved at organiser level) mentioned anything like that. I think your friend may be overestimating the significance of local rivalries, but as I don't know the area or the allegations it's hard to judge.compouter2 said:"NPXMP claims to have spoken to Labour people at Heywood, has he heard any of this stuff?"
Heard anything Nick?
FWIW the Ashcroft poll showed Labour well ahead on the AB vote in my patch. It's not a particularly rare event, though the Tories tend to lead in the group nationally. But I agree that conference week polls are dubious delights.chestnut said:
Calm down dear!!Speedy said:A six percent swing small? OK if ,God forbid, the Tories had fallen by a lot you would be behind UKIP, now you are just at John Major levels.
It's just one poll that is virtually identical to one nine days ago from YG.
It will have all the usual bits in it when this happens - big LAB London number, big Labour AB number and big Lib-Lab switchers.0 -
Heywood and Middleton, using previous by elections in the NW this Parliament, should throw up something like:
LAB 50
UKIP 25
CON 15
LIB 5
OTH 50 -
No surprises that Ed Miliband has put the NHS at the heart of the Labour GE campaign, he had crucially decided to do this before the summer, and before the issue of the Westminster Coalition Government's record blew up in Labour's face during the Indy Ref campaign. A major political/campaign oversight that proved beyond a doubt that Miliband is not fit to be a Labour Leader never mind a future PM. It left Scottish Labour politicians defending the Coalition Government's record on the NHS while their colleagues in England continued to slag it off every day!
But also thanks to the Indy Referendum debate, we now know that Cameron and the Conservatives not only pledged to protect NHS funding five years ago, they kept their promise as part of the Coalition Government despite both Labour and the SNP scaremongering on the issue North and South of the border. C4 news even fact checked it, and the Libdems might ponder on the prospect of a manifesto on making pre GE pledges that are both affordable and deliverable within a Coalition Government.
Ed Miliband's biggest problem is that he simple isn't flexible enough to cope with or adapt to sudden opposition hiccups in his carefully planned political strategy grid, something that also afflicted Gordon Brown during his premiership. Take the latest example, David Cameron throws Ed Miliband a well trailed curve ball on English Devolution on eve of Labour Party Conference in his Indy result speech last Friday. Ed Miliband goes into instant 'this problem doesn't compute for the Labour Party or in my GE campaign political grid'. This is then quickly followed by a Labour Conference which is dominated by the issue of English Devolution in the media, so Ed Miliband and his team swiftly go into 'Error, the solution cannot be found until the end of next Government' mode which leaves the media flashing up message that Labour neither sees this issue as a problem or cares about finding a solution.
Now UKIP going big on English Devolution down in the South might resonate and give the Conservatives problems, but for Labour not to realise that it might also give UKIP a stick with which to beat them in the North is incredible. Have the Labour party learnt nothing from the Independence Referendum over the last two years?! It was Labour's heartlands in Dundee and Glasgow where the SNP message resonated most, and that is where Labour voters ignored the Labour message and voted Yes.0 -
(about a billion threads ago)
I've been saying for ages that Heywood & Middleton might be won by UKIP - a bit like Grimsby and Ashfield in 1977. The Labour Party is a bit slow if it's only just occurred to some of them that it might be possible.0
