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INDEPENDENT: Obama's Damascene conversion #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/i3JnDAhrmH — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014
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Helen Pidd (@helenpidd)
23/09/2014 18:57
Labour is terrified about Ukip - huge turnout for event, loads of scared pcc's asking for help. @robfordmancs thinks their fear justified
BBC News Alex Salmond Cameron should 'hang his head in shame' over Queen 'she purred' comments
I don't think it's 'hang your head in shame' worthy. He's not meant to publicize the comment and it's not an overheard insult, so at worst he's a bit silly.
Also, I know he wasn't 'going anywhere', but could Salmond at least stop throwing criticisms around every day for a while? He's still doing that thing where everything someone else does, or hints at the possibility they might do or say, must be some extreme issue.
In case I'm in hiding after we lose to Notts Forest tomorrow, please can someone post this...adding the required number tomorrow night.
"Labour's lead slumps xx% in first poll after Miliband's make or break speech"
Thanks and to You Gov too....
Night all.
"Is it about sex?"
"No it's about 10:30"
https://twitter.com/JWinterbourne/status/514457437819396097/photo/1
In other news bears are Catholic, and the Pope .... er, is that right?
What we got was: Nothing. Not a sausage, not an idea, not a coherent thought, not even a sound-bite.
It's the weakest opposition platform, presented by the weakest leader, with the most feeble shadow cabinet, which I have seen in the half-century I've been following politics.
Those Labour figures who are terrified that they might actually win by default are spot-on.
I presume it will but EVv4EL tightening is as expected not happening
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/23/how-feasible-ed-milibands-pledges-labour-apprenticeships-housings-nhs-wages
What is interesting, the big one that I think most people agree on across the board, getting more homes built. These kind of claims of loads of new homes, Gordo announced it, current government have said something and now Labour basically can't fill in any blanks even 12 months after announcing wanting to build 200k homes a year.
It is clear no party is proposing the state building, but also neither seems to really have an idea how to boost it other than fingers crossed and hope the market drives it.
Previous thresholds with UK and London average prices from the Nationwide Prices Data were:
£30k from 1984 (UK 33k/London 46k) to 1993 (UK 51k/London 68k)
£60k from 1993 (51k/68k) to 2005 (157k/242k)
£120k from 2005 (157k/242k) to 2006 (172k/269k)
and £125k from 2006 (172k/269k) onwards (present is approx 186k/400k)
Conclusion: bracket creep hurts, particularly if thresholds aren't uprated with inflation. In 1984 the threshold was set just under the average UK house price (about 92% of it) although higher London prices meant it was only 65% of the average price there. Right now it's about 67% of the average UK price, but only 31% of London's. This isn't actually the worst it's been; before the 2005 changes, the threshold was just 38% of the average UK house price and 25% of the average London price. It's clear that something that was mostly a "wealthy person's tax" in 1984 had widened its net substantially by then.
(Figures a wee bit iffy since for convenience I used Q4 all the way through, rather than the relevant quarter, and used Q2 for 2014. Also, other house price indices are available...and apologies for yellow box fans that I have yet to master such HTML intricacies.)
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Fuck me
The group of seasoned terrorists planned to 'imminently' attack a US airliner or other target using a bomb without any metal parts, toothpaste tubes and clothes dipped in explosives, an unnamed US official told CNN.
He's not on most of them
I don't think UKIP is going to win Heywood, they won't even come close.
But assuming Labour doesn't get a single extra vote from last time, only then will UKIP have a small chance.
Realistically though it's a Labour safe seat, the odds should be 100 to 1 not 10/3.
-Telegraph recently: 49 Turkish hostages released by ISIS totally unscathed http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11110558/Islamic-State-releases-49-Turkish-hostages-seized-in-northern-Iraq.html
'reasons behind release unclear'
-Going a bit further back, 46 Indian nurses, freed by ISIS without so much as a scratch http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iraqonthebrink/indian-nurses-reach-mosul-kerala-cm-says-they-are-safe/article1-1236585.aspx
'External affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was in constant touch with her counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE to leverage their influence over the Sunni insurgents to seek the release of Indians being held captive, sources said.'
So Turkey, incidentally the main conduit for these savages to get into Syria (still wide open, not a word uttered by us or the US), gets its people back nice and safe, avoiding tough questions at home on their unpopular policy on this issue. India gets in touch with KSA, Qatar and the UAE -to use THEIR INFLUENCE in ISIS, and the nurses get away untouched. Notice these same countries are the ones joining the US on this new bombing campaign AGAINST ISIS. No prizes for guessing how many actual ISIS targets they'll hit. What they will do is use their presence in the air as a virtual (and totally illegal) no fly zone over Syria to prevent Assad using air power to combat the floods of new militants now being trained in KSA.
Meanwhile, no quiet diplomacy for our hostages -we need to be mentally bludgeoned into sanctioning another vastly expensive bombing campaign, therefore we get treated to these ridiculous orange pyjama videos complete with thuddingly obvious reverse psychology. 'Don't bomb ISIS (we mean do)'. etc. etc.
This is about SYRIA. The beheaders are OUR people (at least, the yanks and the Wahhabi Arab's). Has anyone got a satisfactory reason as to why the US is so obsessed with removing one Arab dictator when it gets on so well with so many who are far worse? This seems as good as any to me: http://nsnbc.me/2014/09/11/us-yet-trying-create-oil-gas-collapse-russia/
*cue 'conspiraloon' comments*
1) As many people predicted before 2010, this an incredibly difficult time to be in government and still get re-elected.
2) Self-indulgent disunity on the right inevitably has its cost.
The second of these is the key one. If, God forbid, we do end up with a Miliband government, it is a 100% certainty that it will both a disaster and very unpopular. That doesn't, however, mean that Labour wouldn't be re-elected in the next election - the chances are that it would, as the right descends into in-fighting.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
In any case I was talking about the substance of the offering, not the polling. As any fule no, Ed has been given a free boost of LibDems horrified at the fact that the party they voted for has actually done what it said it would do. They'll of course be equally horrified if and when they discover that Ed Miliband can't avoid difficult decisions either.
Of course it doesn't always work!
1979 61%
1983 60%
1987 55%
1992 59%
1997 53%
2001 43%
2005 41%
2010 42%
Cue for Morrissey song...
If it is true I cannot imagine the local party allowing him to run the campaign
"Granting the same employment rights for the many self-employed people in the UK that permanent employees have"
What is meant by this?
How can you give yourself a right?
How are you going to sue yourself if it isn't honoured?
It's just one poll that is virtually identical to one nine days ago from YG.
It will have all the usual bits in it when this happens - big LAB London number, big Labour AB number and big Lib-Lab switchers.
We can now be certain that at least some of the slack will be taken up by UKIP. Enough to mean Lab+Con is less than 2010? Dunno, but at a guess I'd think not.
Was it something to do with this?
Simon Danczuk
@SimonDanczuk
Rare occasion Jim Dobbin MP speaks about all the child sex abuse that's gone on in his constituency & he uses it to attack Lab Leader. Sad.
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Tables-for-Ed-Miliband-Speech-Reactions-Poll.pdf
I agree that polls need to be taken with caution for the time being - we should see where we are in a more settled way about a week after the by-elections. I've talked to Labour people at the Heywood by-election: they don't detect a huge UKIP surge yet (and there doesn't seem to be an anti-Muslim vote - the UKIP vote is much more anti-Westminster than issue-specific), but are wary about it. A comment from several people at the conference is that the 45% who voted Yes in Scotland was partly a stuff-Westminster vote, and it's not without an echo elsewhere.
Had a nice PB meet at the Labour conference, ably organised by TSE, with Big John, Bob Sykes, David L (coming all the way from Dundee for it), Simon (a rare poster) and a recent UKIP Euro-candidate whose name I didn't catch. My NGO found that they could book me more cheaply in an (unserviced) flat than a hotel, so I was able to host it in the flat and we drank miscellaneous liquids from Sainsbury over 3 hours of friendly, lively debate. We agreed to be discreet so a veil will be drawn over everything that was said...
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate him
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.
And yet he is allowed to run the campaign? How was that allowed to happen?
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate him
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.
And yet he is allowed to run the campaign? How was that allowed to happen?
Feck knows?
Nick get on the next bus to Heywood and Middleton and tell the locals to stuff Danczuk and get out and campaign.
Is Danczuk so unpopular in Labour circles because he had the nerve to criticize the party over the serial grooming and rape carried out by Muslim men?
He is just another MP to me, however, according to a friend he and his office made Dobbin, who was very popular, life hell and it is widely known across both Heywood and Middleton alike. Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting. Hence local activists boycotting the campaign as he and his friends are running it and voters turned off by him.
Maybe it is because he yesterday called for English votes for English MPs.
Not exactly toeing the party line is he? He seems OK to me!
I doubt you would say that if you heard what he did to Dobbin. I am amazed it hasn't come out yet.
He was reported as saying labour should have gone for 40p tax when tories cut to 45p. No wonder lefties hate him
Joking aside, I spoke to somone today who was at the local party meeting when he said a very emotional Dobbin told them what had happened a couple of days before. I am absoluetly amazed Dobbin didn't go to the police. I know I certainly would have.
Ever thought this might be a smear by people with an agenda? It's very convenient that sadly Dobbin is unable to substantiate the claims made.
Personally I don't see how he is running the campaign if what you are saying is true.
NPXMP claims to have spoken to Labour people at Heywood, has he heard any of this stuff?
Since no one outside of the local Labour party knows, whatever it was could possibly have occurred without many witnesses (or any), perhaps that is one of the reasons he didn't go to the police.
Heard anything Nick?
Interestingly Jabhat Al Nusra fighters, an al Qaeda associate but currently fighting ISIS appeared to have been hit in a number of areas in last nights first range of strikes.
' Some of the things he was supposed to have done were disgusting.'
Just the usual smearing for anyone that steps out of line,Labour are good at that.
Labour have been completely underestimating how unhappy their so-called "core vote" are with them, and they continue to underestimate it with all their talk this week of austerity and "Middle England".
@PeteWishart: Is citizen journalism grown & developed through the indyref now replacing the MSM as the main means of reporting public life in Scotland?
Get the clues from the posts, also ask compouter2 if he knows when it happened, that might help you.
UKIP dodged the bullet again.
In fact now I think of, not much news about US or other strikes in the Golan.
It's a con.
Like Labour's minimum wage of £8 an hour by 2020, or the Lib Dems tax free allowance of £12,500 by 2020. Things that will happen anyway due to inflation.
Equal rights for the self employed probably equals equal taxes. Cynical, I know.
LAB 50
UKIP 25
CON 15
LIB 5
OTH 5
But also thanks to the Indy Referendum debate, we now know that Cameron and the Conservatives not only pledged to protect NHS funding five years ago, they kept their promise as part of the Coalition Government despite both Labour and the SNP scaremongering on the issue North and South of the border. C4 news even fact checked it, and the Libdems might ponder on the prospect of a manifesto on making pre GE pledges that are both affordable and deliverable within a Coalition Government.
Ed Miliband's biggest problem is that he simple isn't flexible enough to cope with or adapt to sudden opposition hiccups in his carefully planned political strategy grid, something that also afflicted Gordon Brown during his premiership. Take the latest example, David Cameron throws Ed Miliband a well trailed curve ball on English Devolution on eve of Labour Party Conference in his Indy result speech last Friday. Ed Miliband goes into instant 'this problem doesn't compute for the Labour Party or in my GE campaign political grid'. This is then quickly followed by a Labour Conference which is dominated by the issue of English Devolution in the media, so Ed Miliband and his team swiftly go into 'Error, the solution cannot be found until the end of next Government' mode which leaves the media flashing up message that Labour neither sees this issue as a problem or cares about finding a solution.
Now UKIP going big on English Devolution down in the South might resonate and give the Conservatives problems, but for Labour not to realise that it might also give UKIP a stick with which to beat them in the North is incredible. Have the Labour party learnt nothing from the Independence Referendum over the last two years?! It was Labour's heartlands in Dundee and Glasgow where the SNP message resonated most, and that is where Labour voters ignored the Labour message and voted Yes.
I've been saying for ages that Heywood & Middleton might be won by UKIP - a bit like Grimsby and Ashfield in 1977. The Labour Party is a bit slow if it's only just occurred to some of them that it might be possible.