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edited September 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?

Ed’s last two party conference speeches have dominated the political landscape, two years ago it was the One Nation speech, last year it was the energy price freeze speech. Both speeches saw a temporary uplift in his personal ratings.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    I wonder if having both by-elections on the same day will help energise UKIP, or stretch its resources thin?

    FPT: If Miliband's proposing to oppose English votes for English laws and then have his Scottish MPs vote for a tax in England which wouldn't apply in Scotland Cameron may as well cancel his conference and just show a replay of Miliband's.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Neil, that is a fair point. The riposte is that Miliband's immediately providing* an example of a tax being imposed on England by Scottish MPs voting on a matter which won't affect them or their constituents.

    A tax on homes today, but what tomorrow? A tax on jobs? Sales? Income?

    Depends how much is devolved, but Miliband's working hard to set a precedent for democratically indefensible actions.

    *If it's confirmed it would be for England only but would be voted for by Scottish MPs.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed is promising Scottish votes for English taxes to pay for Scottish welfare.

    A brave position.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    I think an English Mansion tax voted in by Scottish MPs might steal his thunder....

    Here's Iain Martin on how EVEL could work:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100287360/english-votes-for-english-laws-can-work-heres-how/
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Rachel Reeves having a cracking conference, and she is supposedly one of the smarter / "rising stars" in British politics. God help us.
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    How often has local knowledge and the sense on the ground been proven no more accurate than a stopped clock? Maybe UKIP will challenge in Heywood, but until I see hard evidence I'm unconvinced.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Alistair Carmichael into 2/1 as next out of the cabinet, from 6/1 this morning.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I struggle to believe that the proposed Mansion Tax would not apply in Scotland.
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    Incidentally, I know conference season is the time of year for the Westminster bubble to talk to each other. But the suggestion that constitutional reform will be a vote-winner in 2015 is the most loony conference theme for ages.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited September 2014
    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    TGOHF said:

    Ed is promising Scottish votes for English taxes to pay for Scottish welfare.

    A brave position.

    Just checking, please, did he actually connect the two in his speech, or is it PBers' inference - natural as it is in the absence of a SNP type self-denying ordinance?
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    An Englishman’s home is his castle – unless Ed can get his hands on it.

  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I wonder if having both by-elections on the same day will help energise UKIP, or stretch its resources thin?

    I think the former rather than the latter - given the geographic disparity activists aren't really going to be spoilt for choice as to which one to go to, so the only person being 'spread thin' really is Farage.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HurstLlama said:

    I struggle to believe that the proposed Mansion Tax would not apply in Scotland.

    "The mansion tax is an English situation at the moment, but we will take soundings from our Scottish colleagues as well" @CarolineFlintMP"

  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2014
    CarlottaVance said:

    I think an English Mansion tax voted in by Scottish MPs might steal his thunder....

    Here's Iain Martin on how EVEL could work:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100287360/english-votes-for-english-laws-can-work-heres-how/

    It sounds like a version of my "Subsidiarty-max" idea. I wonder if Ian Martin reads PB?

    I have to confess, that I have moved on to an English Parliament and a very small UK govt for Foreign Affairs, Defence and International Aid

  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,329
    Fpt
    TGOHF said:

    Should mean a boost for Scottish high end property though - of course the revenue from the stamp duty sales will go to Westminster to spend on HS2 etc..

    What larks !

    Scottish stamp duty is devolved, no?
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    HurstLlama said:

    I struggle to believe that the proposed Mansion Tax would not apply in Scotland.

    Scots do not have mansions?
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    I am genuinely do not believe that the mansion tax/Scottish votes matter is as is being reported on this board. It cannot be. With all the EV4EL fuss over recent days I simply don't believe that someone in LabHQ would not have picked up on it. The Tory line of "First they came for the wealthy English, next they may come for you.." is so obvious that this must be being misreported
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    It's effectively 1/4 on.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Daily Politics in Thurrock... Ukip rocking the boat there they say..

    Who'dve thought it? 16/1

    Hope we are all on
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited September 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    1 pound gets you £1.26 including stake

    https://support.skybet.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/37/~/fraction-and-decimal-pricing
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Fpt

    TGOHF said:

    Should mean a boost for Scottish high end property though - of course the revenue from the stamp duty sales will go to Westminster to spend on HS2 etc..

    What larks !

    Scottish stamp duty is devolved, no?
    Soon it will be..

    "Devolved taxation in Scotland

    "The Scotland Act 2012 gives the Scottish Parliament the power to set a Scottish rate of income tax to be administered by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) for Scottish taxpayers. It is expected to apply from April 2016. The Act also fully devolves the power to raise taxes on land transactions and on waste disposal to landfill – it is expected that this will take effect in April 2015, at which point the existing Stamp Duty Land Tax and Landfill Tax will not apply in Scotland. The Act also provides powers for new taxes to be created in Scotland and for additional taxes to be devolved.""

    http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/news/news-calman.htm
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited September 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    www.sportinglife.com/bettingzone/converter

    If the odds are x and your stake is £n then you will get £(n * (x + 1)) back if you win, so your winnings will be £(n*x)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    I hope you all appreciate that I embedded a video of Ed's entire speech from last year for your pleasure.

    You can thank me now.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Oh well....there goes WATO - leading on IS/Syria....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Beverley_C said:

    HurstLlama said:

    I struggle to believe that the proposed Mansion Tax would not apply in Scotland.

    Scots do not have mansions?
    JackW does.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FattyBolger said:

    I am genuinely do not believe that the mansion tax/Scottish votes matter is as is being reported on this board. It cannot be. With all the EV4EL fuss over recent days I simply don't believe that someone in LabHQ would not have picked up on it. The Tory line of "First they came for the wealthy English, next they may come for you.." is so obvious that this must be being misreported

    See post below - from next April it is devolved.

  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Quincel said:

    But the suggestion that constitutional reform will be a vote-winner in 2015 is the most loony conference theme for ages.

    It's about about fairness.

    Equal settlement of UK government spending would give England £300 a head higher spending.

    What does that add up to over 50 odd million people?

    Free tuition? Free prescription? Increased NHS spending? Better social care for the elderly?


  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TGOHF said:

    HurstLlama said:

    I struggle to believe that the proposed Mansion Tax would not apply in Scotland.

    "The mansion tax is an English situation at the moment, but we will take soundings from our Scottish colleagues as well" @CarolineFlintMP"

    Thanks, Mr. Flashman (deceased). I am gob smacked. Now of all times, when EVEL is in the news and Labour opposing it, to propose a tax on England voted on by Scottish MPs is just such awful politics. I appreciate Miliband's speech has probably been planned for weeks but surely someone in Labour might have actually thought about this and how it might be portrayed.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Wish there had been a "Post referendum SNP membership market" they've just gone past 50,000 members.

    Even though most of these new members are just people lashing out looking for a release that's still almost £1,000,000 pounds in subs taken just before an election and if even just 10% turn out to be useful operatives then that's still a lot of new active members.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    This is an easy tuse convetor:

    http://www.sportinglife.com/bettingzone/converter
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not just Ed who is unaware - I was too - an most Scots.

    (and soon to be English voters.. )

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/most-scots-unaware-holyrood-is-to-get-new-tax-powers.24519895

  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    FattyBolger said:

    I am genuinely do not believe that the mansion tax/Scottish votes matter is as is being reported on this board. It cannot be. With all the EV4EL fuss over recent days I simply don't believe that someone in LabHQ would not have picked up on it. The Tory line of "First they came for the wealthy English, next they may come for you.." is so obvious that this must be being misreported

    They were probably so excited at the prospect of unveiling a centre piece 'bash the rich' vote winning policy that they didn't notice the tartan clad elephant crashing about the room.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014
    Beverley_C said:

    HurstLlama said:

    I struggle to believe that the proposed Mansion Tax would not apply in Scotland.

    Scots do not have mansions?
    They do and, on the whole, they actualy look like mansions too. Not at all like those 3 bed terraced houses palaces in West London.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    Take one off the big number and that's the "to one" odds

    So 1.26 is 0.26/1 which if you can do fractions, which I'm sure you can, is roughly 1/4 as the others on here said

    1.33=0.33/1 ie 1/3

    3.75=2.75/1 ie 11/4 etc
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    1.26 is equal to odds of 1 to 26 0ver 100. just round it down to the nearest convenient fraction
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited September 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    1.26 means for each £1 placed you get £1.26 back.

    This includes the original stake, so 1.26 - 1 = 0.26 decimal odds = 1/4

    If you had decimal odds of 7.0, take the 1 (stake) leaves 6.0 = 6/1

    If you have 4.5, take 1 = 3.5, changed to nice fraction = 7/2
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2014
    not_on_fire said:

    HurstLlama said:

    isam said:

    Well labour just traded at 1.26 in Heywood and Middleton... Only £8 mind

    Mr Isam, or indeed anyone, could you explain or point to a resource that explains decimal odds and how to convert them back to old money. Old codgers like me just don't understand the like of "1.26". Thanks.
    www.sportinglife.com/bettingzone/converter

    If the odds are x and your stake is £n then you will get £(n * (x + 1)) back if you win, so your winnings will be £(n*x)
    Many thanks to all who answered my question, I am grateful.
  • nigel4england
    nigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Quincel said:

    Incidentally, I know conference season is the time of year for the Westminster bubble to talk to each other. But the suggestion that constitutional reform will be a vote-winner in 2015 is the most loony conference theme for ages.

    Really?

    You have just been given a prime example, Scottish MP's voting for a mansion tax that applies in England but not Scotland. Do you think that kind of undemocratic rubbish will bypass the voter and go unpunished?

    It has been said that Cameron and Co are rubbish at actual politics, and up until now I would agree, but they have well and truly skewered Ed on this, and so close to the GE too.
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    edited September 2014
    nigel4england said:

    Quincel said:

    Incidentally, I know conference season is the time of year for the Westminster bubble to talk to each other. But the suggestion that constitutional reform will be a vote-winner in 2015 is the most loony conference theme for ages.

    Really?

    You have just been given a prime example, Scottish MP's voting for a mansion tax that applies in England but not Scotland. Do you think that kind of undemocratic rubbish will bypass the voter and go unpunished?

    It has been said that Cameron and Co are rubbish at actual politics, and up until now I would agree, but they have well and truly skewered Ed on this, and so close to the GE too.
    I'm not sure that Cameron and Co have skewered Ed, more that he's skewered himself. It is interesting how little we've heard from the Tories over the last couple of days (in contrast to how they might usually try make announcements etc. to distract the media from Lab Conference) - presumably on the basis of never interrupting your enemy when he is making a mistake.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2014
    FattyBolger said:

    I am genuinely do not believe that the mansion tax/Scottish votes matter is as is being reported on this board. It cannot be. With all the EV4EL fuss over recent days I simply don't believe that someone in LabHQ would not have picked up on it. The Tory line of "First they came for the wealthy English, next they may come for you.." is so obvious that this must be being misreported

    If it's true (if!), something like "An Englishman's home is a taxable castle (if the Scots say it is)" then?
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Lennon said:

    nigel4england said:

    Quincel said:

    Incidentally, I know conference season is the time of year for the Westminster bubble to talk to each other. But the suggestion that constitutional reform will be a vote-winner in 2015 is the most loony conference theme for ages.

    Really?

    You have just been given a prime example, Scottish MP's voting for a mansion tax that applies in England but not Scotland. Do you think that kind of undemocratic rubbish will bypass the voter and go unpunished?

    It has been said that Cameron and Co are rubbish at actual politics, and up until now I would agree, but they have well and truly skewered Ed on this, and so close to the GE too.
    I'm not sure that Cameron and Co have skewered Ed, more that he's skewered himself. It is interesting how little we've heard from the Tories over the last couple of days - presumably on the basis of never interrupting your enemy when he is making a mistake.
    The enemy has been too busy 'high fiving' itself with some more banker bashing to notice.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Mat Forde on Daily Politics... BRILLIANT Impression of Ed M
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2206f21a-3ff0-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3E8mvQGky

    The real problem is what it says about Labour’s own confidence. The party is advertising its belief that it cannot win in England. The more Mr Miliband objects to English self-rule, the more he tacitly concedes his unpopularity among the English. The louder the hostilities between the parties on this, the clearer the impression that one is happy to take its chances in England and the other dreads such a prospect. A serious party cannot be seen to write off its chances in a nation that accounts for 85 per cent of the total electorate.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    CarlottaVance said:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2206f21a-3ff0-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3E8mvQGky

    The real problem is what it says about Labour’s own confidence. The party is advertising its belief that it cannot win in England. The more Mr Miliband objects to English self-rule, the more he tacitly concedes his unpopularity among the English. The louder the hostilities between the parties on this, the clearer the impression that one is happy to take its chances in England and the other dreads such a prospect. A serious party cannot be seen to write off its chances in a nation that accounts for 85 per cent of the total electorate.

    And after last Thursday the SNP are snapping at their heels in 41 Scottish seats.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TheWatcher said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2206f21a-3ff0-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3E8mvQGky

    The real problem is what it says about Labour’s own confidence. The party is advertising its belief that it cannot win in England. The more Mr Miliband objects to English self-rule, the more he tacitly concedes his unpopularity among the English. The louder the hostilities between the parties on this, the clearer the impression that one is happy to take its chances in England and the other dreads such a prospect. A serious party cannot be seen to write off its chances in a nation that accounts for 85 per cent of the total electorate.

    And after last Thursday the SNP are snapping at their heels in 41 Scottish seats.

    It's a good job they've got Wales...

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Its not been mentioned on here I don;t thik, but Breitbart have an interesting story about UKIP and overseas aid (a 90% cut).

    Say what you like, but that may well prove rather popular.
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    "No taxation without representation" .has some historical resonance. The English who are subject to such a tax did not have the chance to elect, and cannot sack these Scottish MPs.









  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    It's a good job they've got Wales...

    The first minister has been quoted as saying he supports EV4EL.

    Ed better enjoy his moment in the sun....
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014
    MarkHopkins said:

    TheWatcher said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2206f21a-3ff0-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3E8mvQGky

    The real problem is what it says about Labour’s own confidence. The party is advertising its belief that it cannot win in England. The more Mr Miliband objects to English self-rule, the more he tacitly concedes his unpopularity among the English. The louder the hostilities between the parties on this, the clearer the impression that one is happy to take its chances in England and the other dreads such a prospect. A serious party cannot be seen to write off its chances in a nation that accounts for 85 per cent of the total electorate.

    And after last Thursday the SNP are snapping at their heels in 41 Scottish seats.

    It's a good job they've got Wales...
    Nice comments, and they bring a ray of sunshine with them.

    However, as some of the lefties on here never seem to tire of pointing out, Labour's apparent malaise - as presented in the media - has not been mirrored in any poll results. Very disheartening.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Kellner on R4: "No party has ever won when it is behind on both leadership and the economy- Miliband needs to get ahead on at least one of them, preferably both."
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    chestnut said:

    Quincel said:

    But the suggestion that constitutional reform will be a vote-winner in 2015 is the most loony conference theme for ages.

    It's about about fairness.

    Equal settlement of UK government spending would give England £300 a head higher spending.

    What does that add up to over 50 odd million people?

    Free tuition? Free prescription? Increased NHS spending? Better social care for the elderly?


    What sort of equal settlement is this? Is this worked through equality, or something ignoring the relative levels of poor people/need/etc.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    taffys said:

    Its not been mentioned on here I don;t thik, but Breitbart have an interesting story about UKIP and overseas aid (a 90% cut).

    Say what you like, but that may well prove rather popular.

    "For decades we have been told overseas aid makes the world a safer place, but ask anyone on the streets of Britain whether they think the world feels safer and you'll struggle to get any positive answers.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/23/UKIP-Propose-45bn-Overseas-Aid-Cut
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    The Middleton and Heywood situation is interesting. It would be absolutely seismic if UKIP won two by-elections in one go. Still, can't quite see it happening, though.
  • corporeal
    corporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    taffys said:

    Its not been mentioned on here I don;t thik, but Breitbart have an interesting story about UKIP and overseas aid (a 90% cut).

    Say what you like, but that may well prove rather popular.

    "For decades we have been told overseas aid makes the world a safer place, but ask anyone on the streets of Britain whether they think the world feels safer and you'll struggle to get any positive answers.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/23/UKIP-Propose-45bn-Overseas-Aid-Cut
    What does it feel like, good politics, bad government.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    DM - Backlash begins over how Labour's mansion tax plan will hit middle class families and pensioners... but what do you get for £2million?


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2766180/Backlash-begins-Labour-s-mansion-tax-plan-hit-middle-class-families-pensioners-2million.html
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Barnett was supposed to cover the costs of the bigger geography of Scotland - not give free tuition fees and prescriptions to Scottish millionaires.
  • saddo
    saddo Posts: 534
    I think all Labour's key headline policies only apply to England and only get into law if Scottish MP's vote for them, assuming Labour have any left.
    The Tories will ramp up the WLQ hugely, especially as already 2/3 of voters think its a fair and reasonable position to take.
    If Labour do get in and try to push their England only NHS, welfare and education policies through with Scottish votes, I wouldn't be surprised to see near anarchy in England.
    Labour really don't get it.

    On the NHS, nearer the actual election, I can see relentless Tory side by side comparison of the Welsh NHS and NHS England. When people see how dreadful Labour are at running a health service, I cannot see their polling advantage continuing.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited September 2014
    @isam
    The "aid" budget, is not about spending money where it will help the poor, it is a political lever.
    It's a kind of reverse blackmail.
    edit: usually known as a bribe
  • MattW
    MattW Posts: 28,309
    Railways sounds like a good target for Ed.

    Damage something which is already running reasonably well to appeal to Ed's sawdust headed lumpenpolititariat.

    last year he offered a 2 year price freeze when at least 3 big elec companies already offered it and we had some of the cheapest energy prices in Europe.

    Anyway, where's the other 99.9% of the deficit to be covered from? Has Ballsy told us yet?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    edited September 2014
    Will Ed forget to mention Labour's failings in Rotherham?

    Windfall tax on tobacco, click, mansion tax, whirl, defend NHS, click, bedroom tax, baby eating Tories.

    Local BBC claimed that it had been a dull conference, but hadn't had any disasters.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    CarlottaVance said:

    Kellner on R4: "No party has ever won when it is behind on both leadership and the economy- Miliband needs to get ahead on at least one of them, preferably both."

    No doubt true, but this isn't like any election in recent history IMHO. It's going to be about who loses least badly and can scrape together a slim coalition or a minority government.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    MattW said:

    Railways sounds like a good target for Ed.

    Damage something which is already running reasonably well to appeal to Ed's sawdust headed lumpenpolititariat.

    last year he offered a 2 year price freeze when at least 3 big elec companies already offered it and we had some of the cheapest energy prices in Europe.

    Anyway, where's the other 99.9% of the deficit to be covered from? Has Ballsy told us yet?

    A windfall tax on publicly subsidised railway operators? Or an enforced price freeze or cut in fares. That wouldn't have any impact on services would it? Perhaps he'll go the whole way and suggest renationalisation?

    Hurrah for the glory days of British Rail (when the trains were really shit).
  • MattW
    MattW Posts: 28,309
    Alistair said:

    Wish there had been a "Post referendum SNP membership market" they've just gone past 50,000 members.

    Even though most of these new members are just people lashing out looking for a release that's still almost £1,000,000 pounds in subs taken just before an election and if even just 10% turn out to be useful operatives then that's still a lot of new active members.

    It's £12 per year minimum, and 25k new members.

    So that's 9 * 25k = £225,000 or more. not £1,000,000.

    I'm watching to see if these new members are conspiraloon turbo-nats or something more sane.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @matt_west: Not sure @standardnews should have gone to press with @Ed_Miliband 's speech a full hour before he makes it....oops http://t.co/d0wgrK2Mzg
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    @matt_west: Not sure @standardnews should have gone to press with @Ed_Miliband 's speech a full hour before he makes it....oops http://t.co/d0wgrK2Mzg

    '... vowing to double the number of first time homebuyers ...'
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    Wish there had been a "Post referendum SNP membership market" they've just gone past 50,000 members.

    Even though most of these new members are just people lashing out looking for a release that's still almost £1,000,000 pounds in subs taken just before an election and if even just 10% turn out to be useful operatives then that's still a lot of new active members.

    It's £12 per year minimum, and 25k new members.
    True, but the default amount is £36, you'd have to actively switch to £1 a month.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited September 2014
    TheWatcher said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2206f21a-3ff0-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3E8mvQGky

    The real problem is what it says about Labour’s own confidence. The party is advertising its belief that it cannot win in England. The more Mr Miliband objects to English self-rule, the more he tacitly concedes his unpopularity among the English. The louder the hostilities between the parties on this, the clearer the impression that one is happy to take its chances in England and the other dreads such a prospect. A serious party cannot be seen to write off its chances in a nation that accounts for 85 per cent of the total electorate.

    And after last Thursday the SNP are snapping at their heels in 41 Scottish seats.
    Yeah, didn't the events of last week show he was tacitly conceding his unpopularity amongst the scottish.

    Just who is he popular with?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    edited September 2014
    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited September 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    Birmingham is a train ride away.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    Wish there had been a "Post referendum SNP membership market" they've just gone past 50,000 members.

    Even though most of these new members are just people lashing out looking for a release that's still almost £1,000,000 pounds in subs taken just before an election and if even just 10% turn out to be useful operatives then that's still a lot of new active members.

    It's £12 per year minimum, and 25k new members.

    So that's 9 * 25k = £225,000 or more. not £1,000,000.

    I'm watching to see if these new members are conspiraloon turbo-nats or something more sane.
    There's another kind?
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    What are the best odds against UKIP winning H&M please? ..... I can't find this market on Oddschecker.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    If Ed Miliband pledges to renationalise the railways i will end my agnosticism and actively campaign for the Conservatives next year.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    TSE: now may not be the time. I have an idea for a pb.com blog article (having never done one before)

    Would you be open to suggestions?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    peter_from_putney said:

    What are the best odds against UKIP winning H&M please? ..... I can't find this market on Oddschecker.

    Is only available on Betfair at the moment. Hills have pulled their market.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Mansion tax being called 'a tax on London'

    By conservatives....???....er no, London labour MPs (Lammy, Abbott).
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    TSE: now may not be the time. I have an idea for a pb.com blog article (having never done one before)

    Would you be open to suggestions?
    Very much so.

  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Aren't the delegates lucky, hope the doors aren't locked.

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 4m
    As audience awaits EdMiliband, choir is singing Lion King's hakuna matata.

  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    What are the best odds against UKIP winning H&M please? ..... I can't find this market on Oddschecker.

    Is only available on Betfair at the moment. Hills have pulled their market.
    The Magic Sign has them at 3/1, but this looks like poor value imo.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    What are the best odds against UKIP winning H&M please? ..... I can't find this market on Oddschecker.

    Is only available on Betfair at the moment. Hills have pulled their market.
    The Magic Sign has them at 3/1, but this looks like poor value imo.
    Yes it is.
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    I wonder what odds would be offered for the Daily Mail backing Labour at the election.

    I would have thought that it would be quite high say 20/1
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    taffys said:

    Mansion tax being called 'a tax on London'

    By conservatives....???....er no, London labour MPs (Lammy, Abbott).

    How much would Labour raise from the mansion tax if they devolved tax powers to London?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    TSE: now may not be the time. I have an idea for a pb.com blog article (having never done one before)

    Would you be open to suggestions?
    Very much so.

    Great. How should I get in touch?
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    TheWatcher said:

    Scott_P said:

    @matt_west: Not sure @standardnews should have gone to press with @Ed_Miliband 's speech a full hour before he makes it....oops http://t.co/d0wgrK2Mzg

    '... vowing to double the number of first time homebuyers ...'
    It's easy when you force a tens of thousands out of their homes with a new tax, then divvie each of them up into 3 flats. Max must be beside himself with joy.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Barnett was supposed to cover the costs of the bigger geography of Scotland - not give free tuition fees and prescriptions to Scottish millionaires.

    No, it wasn't. There is no measure of geographic input that factors into the Barnett formula.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    TSE: now may not be the time. I have an idea for a pb.com blog article (having never done one before)

    Would you be open to suggestions?
    Very much so.

    Great. How should I get in touch?
    You can contact me via the vanilla messaging system. Or I can send you an email via your login email.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    isam said:

    taffys said:

    Its not been mentioned on here I don;t thik, but Breitbart have an interesting story about UKIP and overseas aid (a 90% cut).

    Say what you like, but that may well prove rather popular.

    "For decades we have been told overseas aid makes the world a safer place, but ask anyone on the streets of Britain whether they think the world feels safer and you'll struggle to get any positive answers.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/23/UKIP-Propose-45bn-Overseas-Aid-Cut
    Most of our aid has gone to Africa, where the level of wars has fallen precipitously. It's hardly the aid community's fault that the Middle East is a tinder box.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Barnett was supposed to cover the costs of the bigger geography of Scotland - not give free tuition fees and prescriptions to Scottish millionaires.

    No, it wasn't. There is no measure of geographic input that factors into the Barnett formula.
    How about this:

    "Barnett was supposed to [insert whatever you like here] not give free tuition fees and prescriptions to Scottish millionaires."
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Heart of stone stuff coming up.

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Hugo Rifkind ‏@hugorifkind 2m
    Last year, Miliband spoke for an hour. This year, he starts at 14.30. And Obama speaks live at 15.00. #labconf14
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    Socrates said:

    taffys said:

    Mansion tax being called 'a tax on London'

    By conservatives....???....er no, London labour MPs (Lammy, Abbott).

    How much would Labour raise from the mansion tax if they devolved tax powers to London?
    It is ok talking about devolution, but when you get down to the detail, it is far more complicated, as your point illustrates.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam
    The "aid" budget, is not about spending money where it will help the poor, it is a political lever.
    It's a kind of reverse blackmail.
    edit: usually known as a bribe

    If you're talking about the UK aid budget, this is fundamentally not true.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Ukip are now best price 1/20 to win Clacton, but the vote share bands are the same price...

    Probably not much difference to be honest, but thought I'd let people who might have an angle know
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    TSE: now may not be the time. I have an idea for a pb.com blog article (having never done one before)

    Would you be open to suggestions?
    Very much so.

    Great. How should I get in touch?
    You can contact me via the vanilla messaging system. Or I can send you an email via your login email.
    Brilliant. Give me a day or two and I'll fire something over to you. Ta muchly.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The last time Con and Lab both lost a by-election on the same day was 8th November 1973 (to Lib and SNP respectively).

    As for one party gaining seats from two other parties on the same day, I don't think it's ever happened...
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates
    in the case of the UK, not all of it, but there is always some that goes to keeping the other party "sweet"
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    "By contrast, Ed Balls has pledged that at some point by 2020, the budget - excluding capital projects (housebuilding, infrastructure spending and so on) - would be in balance."

    I thought it was Labour policy to balance the overall budget. That's what Rachel Reeves said the other day wasn't it?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    TSE don't forget to sign up to the bargain £1.98 per month membership for part time workers!!!
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Help.

    I'm surrounded by Labour activists.

    I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.

    Tell them how much you're looking forward to David Miliband's speech
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Just watching 'highlights' of this conference - the members attending, policies being espoused and the atmosphere all seems very 'core vote' to me. "Tories" seems to be spat into every other sentence.

    I take it from this that Labour will be fighting 2015 on that '35%' basis then, and make no real attempt to win over floating Tories?

    Big mistake.
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    CarlottaVance said:

    I think an English Mansion tax voted in by Scottish MPs might steal his thunder....

    Here's Iain Martin on how EVEL could work:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100287360/english-votes-for-english-laws-can-work-heres-how/

    I could have written that piece myself.

    Exactly how I see it working, and how I want it to work. Simple, straightforward, effective - and more importantly, you could implement it next month if the will was there.
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